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Commodities Briefing 03.Jan 2014

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

Global carbon markets traded a total €38.4 billion worth of allowances and credits during 2013, a 38% decrease from the €62bn the previous year, in a continuation of the decline that started after the market peaked at €96bn in 2011. Since then, the key European reference price of emissions has fallen from €18 to €5 per tonne of carbon dioxide.
Last year also saw a decrease in terms of volumes – from 10.7 billion to 9.2 billion emission units – the first drop in traded volumes since 2010, according to analysis published today by Thomson Reuters Point Carbon, the leading provider of market intelligence, news, analysis and forecasting for the energy and environmental markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

Australia’s export commodity prices ended 2013 on a weak note, falling to their lowest level in over three and a half years. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s index of commodity prices fell by one per cent in foreign currency terms between November and December.
Lower prices for gold, iron ore and coking coal were the main reasons for the latest fall, the RBA said. The fall in December brought the decline through 2013 to four per cent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

OPEC crude production dropped to the lowest level in more than two years in December, led by a decline in Venezuelan output, a Bloomberg survey showed. Output by the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decreased 33,000 barrels to an average 29.955 million barrels a day this month from 29.988 million in November, the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts showed.
The November total was revised lower by 19,000 because of changes to the Kuwaiti and Ecuadorean estimates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

Oil prices are forecast to range between $80 per barrel and $90 pb, largely due to fall of demand as compared to supplies. Oil expert Khaled Boudai told KUNA in an interview that the predicted decrease of the crude price would be as a result of fall of supplies of Iranian, Iraqi and Libyan oil, with the international economic blockade on Iran is forecast to ease off, Iraqi crude output would climb and Libyan crude exports would resume.
Forecast rise of the oil supplies, in 2014, will range between 1.5 to two million barrels per day, thus a market glut is foreseen, simultaneously with prices’ fall. In case supplies decreased by more than one million bpd, the Brent oil price would be in the range of $90-100 pb, he said, adding that shale oil would not significantly affect the prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

Recent reforms that would open oil exploration and development in Mexico to major oil companies for the first time in decades has the media all atwitter about the prospects of a reversal in declining Mexican oil output and a possible doubling of production.
The reforms have brought out comparisons with Brazil which has a similar arrangement in which the country’s state-owned oil company works with major international oil giants to develop Brazil’s petroleum resources. Adding to the frothy atmosphere, former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva proposed a partnership between Mexico and Brazil to develop oil resources in both countries………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

Oil prices started the new year Thursday with a gain amid hopes for stronger demand following a 7 percent surge in 2013. Benchmark oil added 28 cents to $98.70 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Hopes for the solid demand in coming months are pegged to the signs of a recovery in the U.S., which is expected to help revive other major global economies. Brent crude, a benchmark used to price international crudes used by many U.S. refiners, added 28 cents to $111.08………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold is headed for its first annual loss since 2000 as an improving economy cut demand for wealth protection. Gold in international fell 28 percent this year to USD 1,201.10 an ounce. Investors lost faith in the precious metal as a store of value as equities rallied and an economic recovery prompted the Federal Reserve to pare its USD 85 billion in monthly bond purchases.
Analysts at J.P Morgan Cazenove lowered their forecasts on gold prices - by 10 percent to USD 1,263 an ounce for 2014 and by 12 percent to USD 1,275 for 2015, according to their research note………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

The gold price surged more than 2% to a two-week high on Thursday, attempting a comeback on the first day of trading in 2014 after last year’s dismal performance. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold for February delivery added $28 an ounce to $1,230.80 in early afternoon trade.
Gold was boosted by a weaker dollar, bargain hunting, investor rotation out of US stocks which after a record setting 2013 suffered a triple digit loss on Thursday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

If you’re like me, you’ve bought gold due to the money printing policies of most developed countries and the effect those policies will have on the future purchasing power of our paper money.
Probably also because there’s no viable way for governments to escape the consequences of all the debt they’ve piled up. And maybe because politicians can’t be trusted to formulate a realistic strategy to avoid any number of monetary, fiscal, or economic crises going forward………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gary Wagner kicks off 2014 telling Kitco News that although gold’s double bottom of $1,180 was tested in the last day of trading of 2013 and could be revisited despite the yellow metal’s significant bounce back.
Wagner also notes that the wildcard for the gold market right now is the Fed and Janet Yellen taking the reins in early 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

I have been carefully scouring the resource markets for exceptional opportunities over the past few months and indicated numerous times about the potential rebound and breakout in uranium, graphite, PGM’s and rare earth mining stocks.
At the end of October, I said to watch for a rebound in uranium as major volume accumulated shares of Uranium Participation Corp which has now just broken out into new nine month highs and made a bullish golden crossover of the 50 and 200 day moving average………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

Copper bounded to a seven-month high amid shrinking stocks of refined product and optimism about the economic outlook in China. The red metal, used extensively in construction and electrical applications, rose as high as $7,460 a tonne for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange – the highest price since June 5.
“Getting your hands on a tonne of refined copper at the moment is hard,” said Colin Hamilton, head of commodities research at Macquarie. “A lot of the metal from the LME and Comex is going to China, attracted by premiums there.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, exchange-traded funds are set to exceed hedge funds this year. Exchange-traded funds are defined by Investopedia as securities that track a commodity, index or a basket of assets like an index fund and are basically trading like a stock on an exchange.
A State Street and Wharton 2008 study earlier argued that ETFs could be attractive investments due to their low costs, stock-like features and tax efficiency………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

For most investors, 2013 was a very good year; stocks charged steadily ahead and a few bumps in the road did very little to derail the impressive momentum. The predictors of “doom and gloom” who foresaw a big decline in equities likely ended up eating big losses, as did commodity and bond bulls.
Before turning our attention firmly to 2014, we’re offering up one more visual analysis of 2013, showing what worked and what didn’t for the past year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

The best time to buy cheap is when you are afraid to bring up your ideas around the water cooler at work for fear of the peer laughter. Our work centers on looking for oversold conditions and crowd behavioral anomalies that can give us better low-risk entries with good upside potential. A combination of fundamentals and technicals, combined with Elliott Wave Theory patterns can lead to nice profits with low risk.
For just a few quick ideas that would make sense in this area, we point out three ETFs that you could look at entering now as they are way out of favor and very oversold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

If mentha oil and potato trade are anything to go by, futures are changing physical markets for the better. Way back in 1875, the Bombay Cotton Trade Association initiated commodity futures trading to India.
This happened just a a decade after trading in similar products began at the Chicago Board of Trade, the world’s first modern commodity futures exchange. Underlying the booming futures trading in cotton was a spurt in cotton exports from India to Europe, after supply from the US was disrupted due to the Civil War………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

China has launched a daily iron ore price index from this year, the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) said on Thursday, as Beijing wants to have a bigger say in pricing the steel-making raw material.
The move is part of China’s latest effort to shift pricing benchmarks for commodities from West to East as it has launched a series of futures contracts from iron ore to eggs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

Turkey’s currency has plunged to its lowest point against the dollar for more than three decades this week. In the short term, the lira’s fall can be laid at the feet of political turbulence following a corruption probe which has led to three ministers resigning and even rumors Prime Minister Recep Erdogan may be next to leave.
Subsequent tax and price increases have led to fears thatinflation will rise rapidly in Turkey………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

The New Zealand dollar enjoyed a strong 2013, and its fortunes are expected to be even brighter this year, analysts say. The Kiwi – as it is broadly referred to by FX traders – has notched up around 6 percent of gains against the greenback since late June, as rhetoric from its central bank turned increasingly hawkish.
In 2013, the currency fared particularly well against the Japanese yen, gaining 20 percent, while the Aussie-Kiwi cross touched its weakest level in five years last month, as the Aussie dropped 14 percent against the greenback in 2013………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

The volume of carbon trading has fallen heavily since the 2009 Copenhagen agreement, and market participants are advocating radical steps to revive the market. Carbon trading may yet have its day, but dawn seems a long way off. The market has had a truly dismal year and, as permit prices languish and carbon offset projects dry up, many banks are reducing or eliminating their commitment to it.
The global carbon market was worth $142bn in 2010, as reported by the World Bank. The following year it was down to $95bn, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), and in 2012 it slumped to $61bn……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS |  Email |Print

China’s Hubei province will issue 300 million carbon permits a year under its emissions trading scheme, local media reported on Thursday, meaning the fast-growing economic hub will host the world’s third-biggest CO2 market when it launches this year.
The province, home to 57 million people, will be the sixth Chinese region to launch a carbon market as Beijing attempts to slow its rapidly growing greenhouse gas emissions, blamed by scientists for causing climate change………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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