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Commodities Briefing 04.Oct 2013

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

If the US government shutdown continues for more than a few days, commodity markets will find themselves flying blind, as the public servants responsible for producing statistics on which traders and investors rely are sent home.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said it will not publish the commitments of traders and other market reports during the shutdown, depriving participants in the world’s biggest derivative markets for energy and agricultural products of price-moving information about the positions of other producers, consumers and speculators………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

North American oil markets are pulling away from foreign market because of increased domestic production. Still, OPEC producers should still hold a key stake in a changing oil game, according to the International Energy Agency.
The chief economist at the International Energy Agency said the Middle East will remain central to the international oil markets despite gains from North American shale. A slump in production from key North African producer Libya rattled the markets earlier this year, though OPEC’s market report next week should reflect a modest recovery………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase shipments through late October as refiners in China resume operations after seasonal maintenance, according to tanker tracker Oil Movements.
OPEC, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will raise exports by 100,000 barrels a day, or 0.4 percent, to 23.97 million a day in the four weeks to Oct. 19 compared with 23.87 million a day in the period to Sept. 21, the researcher said today in a report. The figures exclude two of OPEC’s 12 members, Angola and Ecuador………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Coal will replace natural gas as the dominant fuel for producing electricity in Southeast Asia as the region almost doubles its energy consumption in the next two decades, according to the International Energy Agency.
The 10 members of ASEAN, with energy demand growing at more than twice the global average, will get 49 percent of their power from coal by 2035, up from 31 percent in 2011, the IEA said today in its Southeast Asia Energy Outlook. The share from gas will drop to 28 percent from 44 percent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold analysts are bullish for a third consecutive week on speculation that the first U.S. government shutdown in 17 years and a standoff over raising the country’s debt limit will spur demand for the metal as a haven.
Eighteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, eight are bearish and four neutral. That’s the longest positive run since July. Bullion capped a 7.6 percent gain last quarter, the first in a year, as the U.S. Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from tapering its $85 billion-a-month bond-purchase program………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold values could still gain if interest rates rise, as long as rates are rising because inflation is also rising, said commodity market watchers on Thursday.
Although the Federal Reserve delayed tapering its quantitative easing program last month, economists expect that the Fed will eventually start to withdraw its stimulus program, which will be the first step to toward higher interest rates. Because gold prices have benefitted enormously from the Fed’s liquidity program, conventional wisdom suggests that gold will see prices fall………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The standard wisdom on gold is that it does well in times of economic bad news such as in the 1970s, a period of stagflation and recessions, when the yellow metal rose from $35/oz to peak at $850/oz in 1980. But this time, Don Coxe, a portfolio adviser to BMO Asset Management, believes, things are different. In this interview with The Gold Report, Coxe explains why gold will rise when the economy improves.
Even if the Federal Reserve begins to taper quantitative easing, the front of the curve is going to stay at zero interest rates. A trillion dollars is going through the Fed’s balance sheet, which works its way through the system. As long as the Fed keeps interest rates at zero, it’s easy money………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

I am bullish on gold bullion. My convictions are very simple: central banks in the global economy are going to buy more of it. Their perspective towards the yellow shiny metal seems to be changing. As a result, the demand will increase, and with prices remaining suppressed, the supply will decline.
What we have seen is that central banks around the global economy have become buyers of gold bullion. In the recent past, we have seen central banks from countries like Russia, Turkey, and Kazakhstan add the yellow precious metal to their reserves………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

For precious metals investors, the last twelve months have been like 2008-9 all over again– an end to the sell-off doesn’t seem to be anywhere in the offing. US Treasury investors have been fared better, though they are still in the red, especially those who placed their bets last March and April. Equity investors, on the other hand, continued to enjoy hefty gains.
What ‘s next? Are the corrections in precious metals and US Treasuries going to spread into stocks?……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Platinum may be the best precious metal to bet on, whatever happens to the global economy or its more popular cousin gold, Kitco Metals Inc. precious metals director Peter Hug told International Business Times on Thursday.
On the one hand, if the global economy recovers, platinum and platinum group metals, including palladium, stand to gain as well. That’s because the metal’s heavy industrial use in automobile parts should benefit from a recovering automobile market in the United States and Europe, said Hug, an investment director at one of North America’s largest precious metals retailers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Zinc is likely to outshine all the other base metals for the next two years as its prices are likely to rise on supply crunch globally, experts and analysts said. “Over the coming two years, we would expect to see a significant tightening of the global zinc market.
For 2014, we forecast average zinc prices of $2,175/tonne, rising to an average of $2,400/tonne in 2015,” a report by Natixis Commodities Research said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Demand for platinum-backed debentures, a form of exchange traded products (ETNs), has been unstinting since they were first launched on the JSE in April with product originator, Absa Capital, announcing today the purchase of just under 8,000 more ounces.
Some 800,000 NewGold Platinum Debentures were issued, equal to 7,985 ounces of platinum at a price of R140.60 per additional debenture, said Absa Capital. That takes a total issued since April26 when they were first launched to 68 million debentures referencing some 678,798 ounces of platinum, equal to 16.5% of South African platinum production in 2012 of 4.1 million ounces………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The inaugural ETF Risk European Rankings 2013 names the best providers in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry, as voted by institutional investors, consultants, trading houses, ETF issuers, research firms and exchanges.
ETF Risk’s inaugural annual European rankings of exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers and service providers took place during the month of August and 376 respondents participated………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The universe of equity hedged ETFs continues to grow with the introduction of three new products from Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management this week. The niche group of ETFs have garnered attention after the success of the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSE: DXJ ). The ETF now has over $10.8 billion in total assets.
Investing in individual countries or regions around the globe has been popular for many years via ETFs. However, investors have often been at the mercy of currency fluctuations that would greatly alter the actually performance of the index the ETF is designed to track. Japan is a great example for U.S.-based ETF investors………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Investors who moved into gold-mining companies’ stocks in hopes of capturing or magnifying the move in gold’s price should hear the figure from Ned Davis Research’s John LaForge at this year’s Morningstar ETF Invest conference.
About 50% of the price moves in gold-miner stocks reflect moves in the price of gold over the long haul, according to LaForge. The other 50%: You’re getting the stock market. “The 50-50 is actually pretty high,” LaForge says. In oil stocks, it’s more like 30% to the commodity. Lately, LaForge adds, the tie to gold’s price has been closer, but the long-run pattern is about even………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

So far in 2013, it has been a tale of U.S. and Japan dominating the global equities scene — and the best ETFs, unsurprisingly, are in these regions. Thanks to easy central bank policies in both nations — specifically quantitative easing at home and “Abenomics” policies in Japan that have weakened the yen and kept rates low — these countries have been runaway winners. The S&P 500 is up about 18% as of this writing, while the Nikkei is up about 21% since Jan. 1.
So it’s no surprise that country-based funds focused on these nations have been among the best ETFs to buy in 2013. But what other nations should you be watching … and forget about just the best ETFs — which funds should you avoid like the plague?……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Forward Markets Commission (FMC) on Thursday banned group entities and associate concerns of the National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL) and its parent Financial Technologies (India) Ltd (FTIL) from participating in auctions of commodities and assets.
Board members and employees of both the companies have also been barred from the auctions. The letter addressed to NSEL chief executive officer and managing director, Saji Cherian, referred to the recent auction of castor seeds and sugar conducted by the spot exchange………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Congressional deadlock is bad for equities and equally bad for bonds, but may spell good news for the US dollar. As a safe haven currency with unparalleled liquidity, it thrives on fear and should strengthen on market uncertainty.
Wrangling over the US debt ceiling and deficit in the weeks ahead should therefore be supportive. But then again, the mess on Capitol Hill could weigh on economic growth, delay any tapering of quantitative easing and depress the dollar………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

In India, a slumping currency has given a boost to exports ranging from handicrafts to garments to the country’s famed Information Technology industry. But experts warn that the boom may be brief unless the country carries out structural reforms that have hampered the growth of export-based industries for decades.
A sprawling factory in the town of Moradabad, in Uttar Pradesh, has been hiring workers at a frantic pace, growing from 1,600 to 2,400 employees in the past year. Over the same period, the value of India’s currency, the rupee, tumbled by about 15 percent against the U.S. dollar………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Norway plans to buy carbon credits from emissions-cutting projects in developing and developed countries that may have to stop operating due to the low prices for the offsets they generate.
The nation may purchase as many as 30 million United Nations Certified Emission Reductions and Emission Reduction Units for the period from 2013 through 2020, the ministry of finance said in a statement. The credits have fallen as much as 99 percent since 2008, prices on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London show……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Nima Neelakandan, Barclays Plc (BARC)’s head of emissions trading, resigned from the London-based bank, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
Neelakandan, 28, left the bank in September, five months after taking over the role from Louis Redshaw, who resigned in April, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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