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Commodities Briefing 01.Oct 2013

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The biggest rally in commodities in a year may stall in the fourth quarter as supply of everything from copper to corn expands, tensions in the Middle East ease and the Federal Reserve refrains from tapering stimulus as it seeks more evidence of sustained growth.
Six of 15 commodities will drop by the end of 2013, seven will gain and two will move less than 1 percent, according to the median of estimates from 144 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Cocoa, gasoline and cotton will lose the most as natural gas, coffee and soybeans lead the winners. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says raw-material prices will be mostly lower in a year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

With cumulative growth in Asia well above 4% and the Eurozone finally emerging from deep recession, commodities have resumed their long-term upward trend, says commodity strategist Don Coxe of Coxe Advisors.
Massive leverage flooded into all areas of the market before the crash of 2008. Commodities, as measured by the CRB Index, were hit especially hard as they tumbled from all-time highs back to levels seen six years prior. Since then, copper—a reliable indicator of global economic activity—has retraced most of its losses. The price of iron ore has soared on increased demand from China………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index slumped by 0.1% month over month in August. But the bank’s All Items Index has edged up so far this year by 1.2%, largely reflecting a 0.4% month-over-month rebound in its Oil & Gas Index over December 2012 levels. That’s because there’s been a strong cyclical recovery in building material prices.
“Slight gains in Alberta light and heavy crude oil, and a big increase in propane prices at both Edmonton and Sarnia offset softer natural gas export prices,” says Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank’s vice president of economics and commodity market specialist. (Press Release)

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The price of oil has fallen sharply in the past few weeks, but that only serves to draw attention to the still-lingering high cost of fueling one’s car, business and just about everything else.
Brent crude hasn’t been below $100 a barrel since a brief sojourn at the start of June and another in mid-April, mostly due to real or possible disruptions to supply from the Middle East. Friday’s telephone call between the leaders of the U.S. and Iran stuck an initial nail in the coffin of that risk; Syria seems to be falling into line with arms inspection demands. Libyan crude is coming back on line………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Amicable talks with Iran’s leadership, a possible government shutdown, and easing tensions with Syria pushed oil prices near $100 a barrel last week. As a result of the lower cost of crude, fall gas prices are expected to continue on a downward trend.
Talks with Iran could mean a removal of sanctions and the return of Iranian oil to the market. Currently, the oil market is well stocked. Crude inventories unexpectedly rose for the first time in a month by about 3 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA initially forecast a 1 million barrel increase in supplies………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Rig counts represent how many rigs are actively drilling for hydrocarbons. Baker Hughes, an oilfield services company, reports rig counts weekly. The company notes that rig count trends are “governed by oil company exploration and development spending, which is influenced by the current and expected price of oil and natural gas.”
So rig counts can represent how confident oil and gas producers such as ExxonMobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Hess Corp. (HES), and Chevron (CVX) feel about the environment, as more rigs working means more spending………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Young people preparing for a career in the American military and oil patch pump jacks cranking at high pace. What one has to do with other may not be clearly obvious, but in reality, they are deeply connected.
The reason goes something like this - when America is producing plenty of it’s own oil, it’s far less inclined to use the nation’s military might protecting petroleum coming from somewhere else. That is why the news energy analyst Marshall Adkins brings to the table is so compelling………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold prices edged lower on Monday as a U.S. government shutdown loomed large in afternoon trading, which repelled investors away from risk-on assets.
The dollar, which normally moves inversely with gold, headed lower earlier, though investors continued to steer clear of the yellow metal and favored the dollar somewhat on sentiments that when fiscal woes subside, the Federal Reserve will be closer to dismantling monetary stimulus programs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Speculators returned to buy gold futures and options traded on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, but their activity in other precious metals markets was mixed, according to U.S. government data.
For the week ended Sept. 24, speculators in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly commitment of traders report continued to not only cover previously sold positions, but also established new bullish trades in gold in both the disaggregated and legacy versions of the report. Analysts said this may have reflected the Federal Reserve’s decision not to taper its quantitative easing program………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Global silver mine supply is witnessing an up-trend and is likely to continue with its existing trend in the rest of the year and in 2014. Rise in mine supply may put pressure on the white metal prices to some extent. Silver recorded an up-tick this month after US Federal Reserve stated that its would continue with it’s existing monetary stimulus till the economy reaches its strong growth path.
Analysts expect that US Fed may roll back its stimulus program partially this year and taper entire stimulus by the end of 2014. If the projections come true then, they may negatively affect the silver prices to some extent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

There had seem to be something of a pullback in sales out of the major gold ETFs but this seems to have come to its end, and sales have resumed, albeit at a lower rate. The biggest gold ETF – SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) reports a sale of almost 4 tonnes in its latest figures, which brings its gold holding down to 905.99 tonnes – a new low for the ETF.
The previous low had been recorded on August 8th at 909.33 tonnes. In between then and now holdings had increased to 921.03 tonnes just before the U.S. Labor Day holiday, but since then have been drifting back. The latest 4 tonne fall has been the largest single day decline since then………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

South Africa’s Absa Capital has received regulatory approval for its planned Johannesburg-listed palladium exchange-traded fund and hopes to launch the product by the end of the year, a spokesman for Absa said.
The fund will be backed exclusively by palladium sourced in South Africa, Absa’s head of investments Vladimir Nedeljkovic said on Sunday on the sidelines of the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference. “We have regulatory approval, and we’re now basically just finalising a couple of small things,” Nedeljkovic said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Cloud computing promises the easy migration from one supplier to the next, but we all know that isn’t the case because there isn’t any market punters can access to buy and sell their resources.
But on Monday that changed when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced it had signed a non-binding Letter of Intent with cloud broker 6fusion to try and build a market for buying and selling cloud resources………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

There have been reports in the Israeli media over the past few days that Israel’s tax authorities are examining the possibility of imposing taxes on profits earned from transactions conducted with bitcoins. At the same time, it has also been reported that banks are limiting the use of this currency.
Since bitcoins are not currently recognized by Israel as legal tender, issues pertaining to this currency are especially complicated. With no supervision over bitcoin transactions and no requirement to report trade in the currency, questions relating to their taxation are in a state of limbo………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

One of the founding fathers of the modern futures industry has described Europe’s struggling emissions trading scheme as performing “brilliantly”, saying it has far exceeded its goal.
Richard Sandor, credited with pioneering both the world’s most widely traded interest rate futures contract and the cap-and-trade business in the US for greenhouse gas emissions, told the Financial Times that financial markets were continuing to innovate in the environment………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Climate scientists say the Government will need to rethink its commitment to a 5 per cent carbon emissions reduction target in the wake of last week’s release of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
The Climate Institute says the IPCC report clearly details the efforts developed countries are making to reduce their emissions, and Australia will now have to play catch-up before next year’s UN climate conference in Peru………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

“Fragile” global economy remains a major challenge for policymakers, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said in its second quarter Report on Economic and Financial Developments.
“Overall global economic conditions remain fragile as risks of weaker growth in emerging economies have increased due to domestic capacity constraints, weak external demand and possibility of tighter financial conditions should the unwinding of unconventional monetary policy in the US lead to capital flow reversals,” it stated………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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