Tue, Jul 22, 2014
A A A
Welcome kbr175@gmail.com
RSS
Commodities Briefing 26.Sep 2013

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Commodity supply constraints and demand from emerging markets mean it’s premature to talk about the death of the super cycle that brought a longer-than-average period of rising prices, McKinsey & Co. said.
Energy, metal and agricultural prices that more than doubled since 2000 are still close to highs reached before the financial crisis, even after commodities from gold to wheat dropped into bear markets, McKinsey said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Too much emphasis has been placed on Chinese demand for historically strong prices of industrial metals and not enough on rising mining costs, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) said in a report on Thursday.
The institute, the research arm of consultancy McKinsey & Company, also said it was too soon to call an end to the so-called super-cycle of commodities that sent prices soaring after 2000. “Despite recent declines, on average commodity prices are still almost at their levels in 2008 when the global financial crisis began. Talk about the death of the super-cycle appears premature,” the report said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Since bottoming in June, the JPMorgan Natural Resources fund is up 18%. Although we are still more than 50% off our highs in 2011, this does signal that some sort of recovery is underway. Commodity prices are bottoming across the energy, precious and base metals sub-sectors in which we invest. This is encouraging generalist investors to reappraise the sector for the first time in two years.
At the stock level, we are finally coming to the end of a two-year earnings downgrades cycle in this sector. Glencore Xstrata (GLEN), one of the largest holdings in the portfolio, has been subject to consistent earnings downgrades throughout this period because of continual falls in commodity prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

We’ve been here before, haven’t we? Perhaps the clamour of Cassandra-like voices was not so great in 2011 when Spear’s previously wrote about the supposedly imminent demise of the commodities super-cycle, but it was nonetheless already a clamour. The past nine months or so have heard that clamour amplified several times over.
The Financial Times declared that the super-cycle was dead at the end of June, only to declare about ten days later that rumours of its death were greatly exaggerated. Most recently, the Wall Street Journal reported that the broad consensus of analysts and investors has called the end of the super-cycle………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

BHP Billiton , the world’s biggest mining company, on Wednesday said global commodities markets were being undermined by rising supplies of raw materials and warned the outlook for steel demand in Asia was expected to moderate.
“We maintain a positive outlook over the long term as the fundamentals of wealth creation, demographics and urbanisation continue to create demand for commodities across Asia and other markets,” BHP Chairman Jac Nasser said in the company’s fiscal 2013 annual report………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

“A fragile global economy does not bode well for commodity prices. That’s the opinion of Dr. Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics. Good to see you once again.” “A pleasure being here with you.”
Outline for me, if you will, your thoughts about commodity prices. Basically, there’s going to be enough slowdown including emerging markets that will put a lid on prices from this point?……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Commodity investments can provide higher returns than alternative investments – but the risks are higher and investors need to be familiar with the different markets. What are commodities? Commodities are tangible investments rather than intangibles like bonds or stocks. The sector splits into four markets.
Energy – like coal, oil or gas. Metals and minerals – like copper, iron ore or nickel. Precious metals – like gold, silver or platinum. Agricultural commodities – like wheat, forestry or fertilizers……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

A new phrase has entered our energy lexicon—peak oil demand. The essential idea: prophets of doom who warned about a looming global petroleum shortfall (“peak oil”) were wrong; instead of a downturn in supply, we’re instead seeing the shrinkage of demand for oil. A non-problem just solved itself! Nothing to see, folks; move along.
What’s wrong with this framing of our energy situation? Plenty. To understand what and why, it’s helpful to start with a sense of who’s crooning the “peak demand” tune: it’s long-time peak oil critics like Daniel Yergin—the oil industry spokesman who, throughout the past decade of soaring oil prices, repeatedly assured the public that prices were going to fall back to historic levels……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Yasser Mufti, Saudi Arabia’s governor to OPEC, is stepping down after more than a year in his post at the producer group, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. Mufti, who serves as chairman of the board of governors for the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is leaving by the end of this year, the people said, declining to be identified because Mufti’s departure hasn’t been announced publicly.
Officials in the media department of the Saudi Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources in Riyadh didn’t answer phone calls for comment after normal business hours………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The last four years of economic sanctions by the U.S., the European Union and other western partners have ground down the Iranian economy.
At this time last year, the Iranian rial had plummeted 80% from its peak, inflation had shot up, poultry and bread were in short supply and there were numerous reports of layoffs in the state manufacturing sector. But the most glaring example of the pain exerted has to be in the energy sector………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

If investors can stomach the volatility, stronger management could mark gold equities as an opportunity. Gold has had a torrid time of it so far this year. Its price fell to $1,191.21 an ounce in June, the lowest price since August 2010 and representing the worst quarter for gold since 1968 but since then has recovered somewhat while remaining volatile.
But despite its volatility, there are some fund managers who believe the commodity, and particularly gold equities, represent a good opportunity………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Government of India makes gold more expensive by hiking duties four times in 20 months, hoping this will deter citizens of India from holding more gold. But not only does gold remain attractive for Indians, expectations of a high price regime have increased its attractiveness.
This is not a perverse outcome. It’s more a case of wrong official logic. Economics 101 says high prices dampen demand for a product or a service. But Investing 101 says expectations that an asset class will get pricier can increase demand for that asset. Gold is an asset class………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold-mining stocks are likely to outperform gold itself if the metal returns to a rising price environment, said fund managers and mining analysts attending the Denver Gold Forum.
Historically, this has been the case. But there was a spell during gold’s long bull run when the metal was outpacing mining shares………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

YLG Bullion International Co., Thailand’s biggest domestic gold importer, expects to more than double purchases this year after the bear market in prices spurred a surge in demand for physical metal.
The company may import as much as 200 metric tons in 2013, from 92 tons last year, Chief Executive Officer Pawan Nawawattanasub said in an interview yesterday. First-half shipments advanced to 112 tons, accounting for 60 percent of the country’s total, she said. A ton is valued at $42.6 million………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

U.S. commodity regulators closed a five-year-long investigation of silver-market manipulation claims without filing charges, the latest setback for authorities cracking down on alleged trading abuses.
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission said there is no “viable basis” for a case that had its roots in emails commissioners received from investors amid market volatility in 2008. The decision to close the case amounts to a victory for J.P. Morgan Chase, a large silver trader that was the subject of manipulation allegations………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

A group of analysts at the major financial services firm Citi believes that the increased investor interest in white metal is not enough to overcome weak supply and demand fundamentals. Silver remains to be a bearish call for Citi. It predicts the silver prices to decline further during the remaining quarters of the financial year.
Silver futures declined sharply, following Fed Reserve policy decision announcing no reduction to stimulus program. The prices of silver are on track to post a loss of nearly 29% in 2013………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The word “bullion” may conjure up images of pirates pillaging treasure chests or the military patrolling the golden bunkers of Fort Knox — but bullion isn’t just for the criminal class and the government. In fact, buying bullion is a great way to diversify your portfolio and (often) realize a great rate of return.
How exactly do you buy bullion? 1. Start with the basics. Bullion — from the old French word bouillon meaning “boiling,” which was a term used for a mint or boiling house — refers to gold bars, silver bars and other precious metals. Traditionally, bullion didn’t include coins, but these days, gold and silver bullion coins are minted by governments and private mints………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

An investment sea change has been occurring in the past few years: Mutual fund investors have been shifting some or all of their assets to passively managed vehicles.1 For many, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become the vehicle of choice.
“An increasing number of investors are turning to ETFs to gain exposure to specific markets or to complement other holdings in their portfolios,” says Mariana F. Bush, CFA, a senior analyst with Wells Fargo Advisors………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Independent money managers are the Rodney Dangerfields of the investment world. Sometimes, we just can’t get any respect.
In meeting potential clients, I am often told that what I do is easy. (How I wish it were.) Everyone watches CNBC, BNN and reads investment blogs, so everyone feels they’re a market expert, rattling off price-earnings ratios, book values and other conventional metrics of stock performance………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

First, let’s check the markets. Again, the Dow sold off a little – down 66 points. And again, gold sold off too – down $10. In August, our guess was that we would see falling stocks and rising gold as the dominant trends of the autumn season. So far, we haven’t seen much in the way of trends at all.
The Fed announcement of last week should have been followed by robust increases in both stock and gold prices. But what happened? After the first day, both headed down………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Foreign-exchange trading surged to an average $5.3 trillion a day in April 2013, boosted by greater yen volumes, the Bank for International Settlements said.
Trading increased 33 percent since the same period in 2010, the BIS said, citing a survey of currency traders it runs every three years. That’s an acceleration from a 20 percent increase in the three years through 2010………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The results of this week’s German federal elections could pave the way for a fix of the European Union’s carbon emissions trading scheme, analysts say.
The European Commission is seeking emergency measures to “backload” carbon allowances from the market in a bid to bolster their low prices, which is hamstringing their ability to persuade polluters to invest in green technologies………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 September 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The IPCC is meeting in Stockholm in a much-changed political climate compared with its last such gathering in 2007. Then, before the onset of the economic crisis, there was an expectation that a binding emissions-reduction deal could be reached in Copenhagen in 2009. Politicians from left and right were gushing over the potential for a market mechanism to solve the climate crisis through global emissions-trading schemes (ETS).
Six years on, such optimism has long since evaporated. Economic woes have crowded climate concerns out of the public consciousness, and emissions-reduction schemes have stalled after the collapse of the Copenhagen talks. Perhaps most damagingly, the market approach that everyone was so excited about is in serious trouble………………………………………..Full Article: Source

See more articles in the archive

July 2014
S M T W T F S
« Jun    
 12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031