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Commodities Briefing 30.Aug 2013

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

It’s looks likely that the United States will launch a military attack against Syrian government forces, and that would boost commodity prices, says legendary investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.
He told Reuters he owns oil and gold. “If there is going to be a war, and it sounds like America’s desperate to have a war, they’re going to go much, much higher,” Rogers said, according to the news service. “Stocks are going to go down, some of the markets are already going down. Commodities are going to go up.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

It’s not a surprise to hear that billionaire investor Jim Rogers, who’s usually bullish on commodities, expects higher prices for gold, but The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’s Marc Faber said he does too.
Marc Faber, also known as “Doctor Doom,” told HardAssetsInvestor in an interview published Wednesday that “looking at how debt will continue to increase and how central banks will continue their monetization not only in the U.S. but on a worldwide scale, I assume the price of gold will trend higher.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Index funds increased their bullish exposure to commodities in July for the first time in three months amid signs of a better economy and higher oil and gold prices, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Thursday.
The value of net-long index fund investments in U.S. commodities rose by nearly $9 billion, or 5 percent, to $193.4 billion at the end of last month, according to the CFTC’s monthly Index Investment Data report………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Oil could briefly spike to $150 per barrel or more if Syria’s supporters seek to punish the U.S. and its allies for a military strike against it. The potential for U.S. intervention in Syria has sent international bench mark Brent crude to a six-month high, and analysts expect prices to continue to head toward $120 a barrel and above—but the ceiling could be much higher if something happens to disrupt global oil supplies.
Societe Generale analysts laid out a case for Brent crude, the international benchmark, to spike temporarily to $150 per barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

A barrel of oil for $150. Ouch. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities if the USA’s expected military strike at Syria reverberates through the Mideast, sparking a larger supply disruption in the volatile oil-producing region.
That market call, authored by Michael Wittner, an oil analyst at Société Générale, received its fair share of attention on Wall Street, where anxiety is running high as geopolitical risks rise………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce shipments through to mid-September as refiners carry out seasonal maintenance, tanker-tracker Oil Movements said.
The group, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will cut exports by 220,000 barrels a day, or 0.9 percent, to about 23.59 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Sept. 14 from the period to Aug. 17, the researcher said today in an e-mailed report. The figures exclude two of OPEC’s 12 members, Angola and Ecuador………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency said on Thursday oil markets were currently well supplied and did not warrant any action by the West’s energy watchdog despite a recent spike in prices.
Supply outages from Libya and concerns the escalating situation in Syria could spill into other Middle East countries has pushed up prices for international benchmark Brent by nearly $8 this month to over $115 a barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The global oil market is adequately supplied and doesn’t require the release of emergency stockpiles, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency is monitoring the market and “stands ready” to respond if there’s a major supply disruption, the Paris-based adviser to 28 energy-consuming nations.
“The IEA is obviously concerned about the harmful effects of high oil prices on the global economic recovery,” Greg Frost, a Paris-based spokesman, said in an e-mailed statement. “Prices at these levels cause hardship both in IEA countries and especially emerging economies.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

According to the most recent research report titled “2012 Global Diamond Industry Report” released by the global consulting firm Bain & Company, global diamond consumption is likely to record a compounded annual growth rate of 6%. The worldwide diamond consumption may surge by more than 60% by the end of this decade.
According to the report, the U.S. is far and away the world’s largest diamond market. The U.S. market revenues are more than three times the revenues of the No.2 market China and the No.3 market India. Bain & Company notes that women in the U.S. continue to crave diamonds, but popularity of diamond engagement rings among younger consumers is marginally slowing down………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold prices could climb to $3,500 per ounce in the next few years, well beyond double the current market price of $1,411, according to an unorthodox estimate by Citigroup Inc analyst Tom Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick argues on technical and historical grounds that the long-term trend for gold is strongly bullish. “We believe we are back into that track where gold is the hard currency of choice, and we expect for this trend to accelerate going forward,” Fitzpatrick told the blog. “We still believe that in the next couple of years we will be looking at a gold price of around $3,500.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold price hits fresh all-time high of Rs 34,622 per ten grams in futures trade on Wednesday on heavy buying as rupee plunged to its new record low of 68.75 against the US dollar.
Despite recovering about USD 240 an ounce, or more than 20 percent, since hitting a near three-year low of USD 1,180.71 in late June, gold prices are still down 15 percent so far this year in international market. On the contrary, the yellow metal, which plunged to a low of Rs 25,000 in mid-April, is at a record high in India………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

HSBC Bank Plc reduced gold’s weighting in its strategic portfolio, citing an outlook for weaker economic growth and slow inflation. HSBC lowered its bullion allocation to 4 percent in its three-year-view portfolio, compared with 7 percent in July, Fredrik Nerbrand, the bank’s London-based global head of asset allocation, said.
It also gave commodities a smaller allotment. HSBC left gold’s weighting unchanged at 5 percent in its six-month-view tactical portfolio………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

It has been a bumpy ride for precious metal investors over the past couple of years and unfortunately I do not think it’s over just yet.
The good news is that the bottom has likely been put in for gold, silver and gold miners BUT the recent rally in these metals and miner looks to be coming to an end. While we could see another pop in price over the next week or so the price, volume and momentum seem to be stalling out………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Global copper supply disruptions increased in the second quarter of 2013 as a result of the Bingham Canyon slide and the closure at Freemont’s Grasberg. But despite these and other disruptions, 2013 supply growth remains positive and is expected to remain so throughout 2013, with surplus widening in 2014.
A study by Macquarie Research expects global copper mine supply growth in 2014 to approach 7% YoY, the highest rate of supply growth in a decade………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Industrial metals are showing strength as demand from China and the Eurozone pick up steam. Exchange traded funds that track this segment of the market have rebounded over the past month.
“The increased chances of the Fed curtailing stimulus have led to uncertainty in the market. Investors are thinking that the equity markets have reached the highest level and could slump, or stay range bound, from here. As such, they are moving to commodities, which look cheaper at current levels,” Zacks Equity Research wrote in a recent article………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Crude oil prices rebounded to the triple-digit mark at the start of the second half of the year after being stuck in a relatively tight range for much of the first half.
The commodity gained luster from encouraging economic data from the U.S., China and Euro zone as well as supply disruptions in the North Sea, Egypt and . Additionally, the commodity benefitted from the minutes of the latest Fed meeting, which suggested that QE3 tapering may not start soon………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Broad commodities have made an impressive comeback after a steep fall earlier this year, and have caught enough investor interest of late. While the commodities in the precious and industrial space have rebounded from their lows or are even moving higher, soft commodities, in particular coffee, are still plunging.
In fact, the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN (JO) has been down more than 8% in the past one month, underperforming the broad PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) and PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) by wide margins………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The international arm of Bank of China has set up a commodities trading unit on the mainland as it looks to beef up its presence in the sector, a senior bank official said.
Chinese regulations prohibit banks from trading physical commodities, with the exception of gold. Therefore Bank of China, the country’s fourth largest lender by market value, used its overseas subsidiary to apply for a trading license………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Despite the dire headlines about the plummeting currencies of Indonesia and India, the crisis in Indonesia will be a much easier one to remedy for several reasons. Here’s why: Indonesia’s economic policies haven’t flip-flopped like India’s.
With the scars of the 1997 Asian financial crisis still front of mind, Indonesia’s government seems determined to avoid the kind of muddled policy efforts that have hobbled India’s economy. As such, Jakarta reacted decisively to the 11% dive in its currency over the past three months………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Carlos Piassi remembers the reaction from other farmers when he started planting a second annual crop at his farm near Uberlândia, in Brazil’s grain belt. No one believed it could be done given the semi-arid region’s relatively short rainy season and long dry winter.
“If you had said you were going to plant a safrinha [the small harvest] here five years ago you were called crazy,” he says at his farm, Fazenda Campo Alegre. The naysayers were wrong. “The safrinha between last year and this has about tripled,” he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

One almost feels sorry for Brazil’s central bank President Alexandre Tombini these days. The man charged with steering the monetary policy of the world’s sixth largest economy has a lot to handle.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled it will finally reduce its quantitative-easing policy, a move that spells the end of the easy money that has helped Brazil’s economy coast for years. This has contributed to an initial blow to the Brazilian real, which last week dropped to its lowest level in 4 1/2 years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The European Union’s regulatory arm is winnowing down the options for a long-term overhaul of the world’s biggest carbon market and aims to make a decision in the coming months, EU Climate Action Commissioner Connie Hedegaard said.
The European Commission has floated several scenarios to help curb a record glut of emission permits and boost the price of carbon in the bloc’s €54 billion ($72 billion) Emissions Trading System, where prices slumped to an all-time low in April………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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