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Commodities Briefing 14.Aug 2013

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Morgan Stanley has reorganized its commodities division in the face of challenging markets and intensifying scrutiny of banks’ participation in the business, according to people familiar with the firm’s strategy.
The New York firm decided in recent weeks to have some of its U.S.-based commodities salespeople report to traders, an effort to make the division more efficient and work more closely together. The moves come amid the departure of Boris Shrayer, a firm veteran who was global head of commodities marketing, and a broader restructuring of the group………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Morgan Stanley stock has advanced more than 35 percent this year to date, more than doubling the return of the S&P 500 and outperforming the broader Financial Select Sector ETF, which is up about 20 percent for the same period.
Much of this success can be attributed to Chairman and CEO James Gorman, who has helped shift the focus of the bank away from typically volatile trading and banking businesses and toward more reliable wealth management businesses………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Demand for oil in the US has fallen in six of the past seven years, but driven by increased consumption of industrial fuels used to power trucks and trains, and in the petrochemicals industry, there has been a strong resurgence in demand.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has declared that the demand for oil in the US is growing at its fastest rate in over two years, mostly due to the increase in demand for industrial fuels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Iraq’s average crude exports will suffer only a very small reduction due to maintenance work starting in September, a senior Iraqi oil official said Tuesday, contradicting estimates from the International Energy Agency that the work would reduce oil exports by around 500,000 barrels a day for four to six months.
“We are planning maintenance to the southern export terminals, but it would not affect our export capacity,” and the country will still hit its average export targets, Faisal Khalaf Wadi, deputy head of Iraq’s largest state oil firm, the South Oil Co., told the Wall Street Journal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

I have posted frequently (most recently in a three-part series that starts here) on the topic of underpricing of energy in the United States, but we are not the only offender. Many countries around the world subsidize consumer energy prices in ways that bring them to levels even lower than what U.S. consumers pay.
These policies burden the rich and the poor alike—rich countries like Saudi Arabia and poor ones like Egypt, and within each country, both rich and poor citizens………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

It’s difficult to pin down an exact dollar amount when it comes to the billions of our money that will ultimately be wasted bailing out the U.S. auto industry, all because the Treasury Department has a tendency to continually revise its numbers.
Their most recent report pegged the amount lost at around $25 billion. And if you think that’s bad, prepare yourself. You’re in for a shock when you learn about the bailout going down right now… It’s taking place in a sector that’s even more crucial to the world economy than the auto industry — energy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold has staged a big comeback in the recent weeks, rebounding over 13 percent since hitting a near three-year low late June, raising the question of whether investor sentiment toward the embattled precious metal is about to shift yet again.
The metal, which traded close to a three-week high of $1,336 on Tuesday, has been supported by short covering and robust physical buying especially from China. Latest data from the China Gold Association (CGA) on Monday showed that the country’s gold consumption rose 54 percent in the first half of the year, compared with the year-ago period………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Bullish gold investors have gotten the upper hand over the bears as gold prices hit a three-week high north of $1,300 an ounce this week. Bullion and gold miner prices broke above their key 50-day moving average Monday for the first time in 10-months, a notable development for an asset that’s been downtrending for nearly a year.
“Gold and the miners tried to turn down, but that downturn has failed,” Tom McClellan, publisher of “The McClellan Market Report,” said in an e-mail. “That opens the door for the bulls to come rushing back in.” So have gold and gold miners finally regained their shine for good? Here are a few key reasons the gold bulls are screaming yes………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The silver price will reach triple-digit figures in the long term buoyed by supply and demand, Mexico-focused miner First Majestic Silver CEO Keith Neumeyer said in a call to discuss Q2 financials. While it seems “ridiculous” to predict US$100/oz-plus prices when the current figure is close to US$21/oz, “I honestly believe that it’s going to occur,” Neumeyer said, with silver set to resume its upward trend.
All commodities “will revert to a supply and demand trend,” he told the call, and for silver the supply and demand outlook is “extremely good” with new uses continually being discovered………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Weakness in the dollar, together with what appears to be a boost to Chinese industrial growth on the latest data, with a reduction in talk of Fed tapering has led to a mini-surge in the gold price, while silver has done even better living up to its tendency to outperform gold on the up.
For those who follow it, the gold:silver ratio has come back from around 65-66 to closer to 61 and if the silver price rise continues there could be scope for the ratio to fall further still………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Manganese ore prices to China fell as pressure from buyers for lower prices continued to weigh on offers from miners, sources said Tuesday. Platts assessed its 44% Manganese ore price at $5.17/dry mt unit CIF Tianjin, down 8 cents on the day.
“Buyers are insisting on lower prices,” a trader source selling into China said. “It’s the normal trend when prices are getting lower, buyers will try to put more pressure on prices,” he added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have closed mixed as the US dollar-denominated group’s recent rally lost steam, pressured in part by a stronger US currency.
At the close of open-outcry trading on Tuesday, LME 3-month aluminium was down 0.3 per cent on Monday’s settlement price at $US1,880 a metric ton. The flagship of the base metals group, LME 3-month copper, was 0.3 per cent higher on the day at $US7,272 a ton………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Since the Fukushima disaster, the price of uranium is down more than 72%. New new safety regulations from Japan could help the commodity finds its bottom. The 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster sent shock waves not only throughout Japan but also throughout the entire nuclear industry.
Many countries immediately cut back on their nuclear production with some even putting plans in place to eradicate it altogether. The swift reaction sent uranium prices into a tailspin that they have yet to recover from. But as 2013 progresses, new legislation and momentum for the nuclear world may finally help uranium find its bottom and give it room to run higher………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Big swings in exchange rates over recent months have caused headaches for currencies-focused funds, but the banks that make the market tick have enjoyed a bumper quarter. Currencies trading volumes rose as the yen tanked in the first half of this year, and as the dollar later surged after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled a shift in its monetary policy stance.
Revenues at major banks’ foreign exchange divisions rose by an average 15% during the second quarter compared with the same period last year, outstripping earnings from other businesses, according to research firm Coalition………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Reserve Bank today came out with incentive scheme for banks to ensure distribution of notes and coins to the public, a step which will help in removing shortage of currency in circulation. Accordingly, the existing scheme of incentives and penalties has been reviewed taking into consideration the recent developments in the area of exchange and distribution of bank notes and coins to the public, RBI said in a statement.
The revised scheme endeavours to provide improved customer service to the common person both by extending higher incentives to the banks as also by expanding the activities covered, with major thrust on technological interventions in the issue and distribution of banknotes and coins, it said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 August 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Despite the continued economic stimulus policies across the world since the 2008 financial crisis, the global economy is likely to face another crash next year, according to U.S.-based economic forecaster Harry Dent.
He says the world faces three major short-term risks: falling commodity prices, a depression in southern Europe and the bursting of China’s real estate bubble. Regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy, Dent, who has for decades followed the booms and busts of the global economy, remained skeptical………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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