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Commodities Briefing 08.May 2013

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars may be set for a decline, dragged down by a slowdown in China and a sharp fall in commodity prices. Tuesday’s 0.8 percent slide by the Aussie versus the U.S. dollar, prompted by a rate cut, was just a foretaste.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars are up 70 percent against the U.S. dollar since late 2008, driven up by near-zero rates in many developed countries. The euro zone crisis also led investors and central bank reserve managers to seek higher-yield, low-risk assets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Jim Rogers gave us the scoop on his latest interests in agriculture. Rogers pointed to several factors he believes will push agricultural commodities prices much higher in the years ahead.
One factor is demographics. Farmers across the world are aging and it’s not a sector attracting a lot of young career-hunters. Another key reason for higher prices: demand is outpacing supply………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Imagine an island on which magic trees grow. These trees, as it turns out, are exactly like the trees everywhere else, except for three things. First, these trees never die. Second, the trees always grow to exactly 100 feet tall eventually.
And third, to pass time on this boring island, the villagers place bets on which specific trees in a given acre of land (on which all trees were planted at the same time) will grow the fastest over the next 10 years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its oil output in April to its highest level in five months, the U.S. government said.
The Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook that the cartel boosted production to 30.21 million barrels a day from 29.93 million in March. That is the highest output for the group since November, when output was 30.26 million barrels a day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

OPEC has appointed a Saudi Arabian candidate as its head of research over an Iranian, OPEC delegates told Reuters on Tuesday following a meeting at the organization’s headquarters in Vienna.
Saudi Aramco’s Omar Abdulhamid was appointed as the head of research, the second most senior post at OPEC after the secretary general, replacing Kuwait’s Hasan Qabazard. The other candidate was Iran’s Hojatollah Ghanimifard. Delegates said that Abdulhamid was personally recommended by OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Many investors study supply and demand statistics to figure out where they think the oil price is going. But by far, the biggest factor that determines the oil price is the US dollar, says Donald Dony, who pens The Technical Speculator investment newsletter.
“The US dollar is absolutely pivotal for commodity prices,” he says. To pros in the investment game, that is a truism; obvious. But most investors underestimate the background impact the greenback has on oil prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

If one is to believe the hype and the optimism going around Lebanon these days, one would think that every Lebanese citizen, or at least those residing in Lebanon, is going to strike the jackpot and join the ranks of the Gulf Arab millionaires once drilling in the newly discovered offshore oil and natural gas fields begins.
Among the anecdotes making the rounds of Lebanese coffee houses is one that all Lebanese living abroad will now return to the old country. That would be nice but it would create a terrible shock to the real estate market, already over-priced as it stands………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

There’s not much to suggest the European natural gas market will make dramatic gains any time soon, the International Energy Agency said. The IEA said in its monthly journal that European countries consumed 8 percent more natural gas in 2010, erasing the 6 percent decline that coincided with economic crises in 2009.
That agency, however, said that was “an illusion” because of colder winters. When adjusted seasonally, the IEA said gas consumption in some countries is at 10-year lows………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

These past few weeks it seems like paper gold is out and physical gold is in. The fall in the price of gold has triggered a new run on physical gold that shows no sign of abating. Record amounts of money have exited ‘paper,’ i.e. futures and ETFs, and headed straight to the bank or the mint to be exchanged for coins and bullion bars — that is, if one can get them.
The strength of physical retail buying has taken dealers and mints around the world by surprise, leaving them scrambling to keep up with demand. The sudden surge is evidence of pent-up demand, particularly from China and India………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

John Paulson’s Gold Fund lost 27% in April, according to a report on Bloomberg Tuesday, citing someone familiar with the matter. That’s a chunk of change, and explains why the SPDR Gold fund GLD keeps heading south, says Tyler Durden over at ZeroHedge.
Durden says there may be a gold lining amid signs of major selling from Paulson and others. ”The good news is that once levered players such as Paulson are finally blown out, there is hope that only far more rational, ‘non-weak handed’ players remain at the table,” he says………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Even though gold is said to have entered a bearish phase there is no respite for Indian consumers. They may end up paying more for the yellow metal if the RBI’s recent move to restrict banks’ bullion imports becomes effective.
Jewellers feel that the directive that allows banks to import bullion only on a consignment basis to meet the genuine needs of jewellers will completely jeopardise the gold supply in the domestic market. It may even push up the prices, which will subsequently be passed on to the consumers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Silver in India, the poor man’s gold, is witnessing a reverse trend compared to the world market where a slump in silver prices has spurred demand.
In India, the demand for silver jewellery has dropped significantly and the investment demand for the metal has almost dried up despite the price falling to Rs 46,000 per kg. This may bring down the country’s import of silver by 12% to 2,200 tonne this year from 2,500 tonne last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The commodity ETF space has seen only a few winners so far this year, thanks to a strong dollar and weak demand. Some products in the energy or soft commodities space (like natural gas, cotton or cocoa) have added double digits but others have seen significant weakness in the year-to-date period.
ETF investors have especially seen weakness in the industrial metals segment of the industry. These products have been crushed by sluggish conditions in some key emerging marketslike China, recent fears of a deepening euro zone crisis as well as worries over continued dollar strength………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Cantab Capital Partners LLP, the $5.5 billion hedge-fund firm led by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) quantitative traders, will shut a pool that is regulated like mutual funds because of restrictions on commodity investments.
Investors in the CCP Quantitative UCITS fund, which has more than $320 million in assets under management, will be given the option of redeeming their money or moving to the firm’s hedge funds, Cambridge, England-based Cantab said in a statement today. The UCITS fund will be closed at the end of June………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Brazilian exporters are facing a major crunch when it comes to both cost and revenue, according to Murilo Ferreira, president of mining giant Vale, Brazil’s largest single exporter.
“On the one side, Brazil’s currency is still out of line,” Mr. Ferreira said in a speech to investors Tuesday. “On the other side, our wage costs are rising faster than inflation.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Climate Change Minister Greg Combet has confirmed the 2015 tax cut associated with the carbon trading scheme will not go ahead because of the drop in the carbon price in Europe.
Mr Combet says the Government know thinks the carbon price will not be as high as the $29 per tonne originally forecast. He says that means there will not be a need to increase the tax free threshold as promised………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 May 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

China may introduce tougher taxes on emissions and use of resources, after Vice-premier Ma Kai said more reforms are needed to achieve greener industrial development. In an article for Qiushi Magazine on Thursday, Ma called for an increase in the funds needed to tackle pollution “via taxation measures”.
He said measures could include a heavier tax burden on companies and higher prices for the use of resources, such as water. To promote energy saving and enhance efficiency, Ma called for innovative pricing mechanisms for resources, and for more use of renewable energy such as hydro and nuclear power………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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