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Commodities Briefing 26.Apr 2013

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Commodity super-cycle that began in 1990’s is far from over and it will continue to be driven by resource intensive urbanisation, industrialisation in emerging countries, according to an analysis by ETF Securities Ltd. It said that analysts have shown a tendency to confuse short term correction in prices denoting end of super cycle while such cycles have to be defined over a larger time frame extending to three to four decades.
ETFS said that the world has seen four major super cycles in the past 160 years with bull cycles ranging from 30-40 years and the immediate two previous super cycles were driven by growth in USA (1870-1913) and post war Japan from 1946-1973………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

ABN AMRO sees most commodity prices declining further for the remainder of 2013 before strengthening next year on economic recovery-led demand, according to the bank’s Quarterly Commodity Outlook published today.
The improving outlook and sentiment for the US and China will support cyclical commodities, especially base metals, in the near term. Price increases of 5-10% are predicted for aluminium, copper and zinc are predicted in the coming quarter, with nickel expected to strengthen even further………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase shipments by 60,000 barrels a day through to the middle of May because of rising demand in Asia, according to tanker tracker Oil Movements.
The group that supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil will boost exports by 0.3 percent to 23.61 million barrels a day in the four weeks to May 11, the researcher said today in an e- mailed report. The figures exclude Angola and Ecuador………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Imports to China may surpass 6 million barrels a day by the end of this year, according to an e-mailed report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. US oil imports declined 21% last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Shipments may drop below 6 million a day in 2014, according to OPEC.
“People have been anticipating this for the better part of a decade,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold is making a comeback after its biggest single-day price plunge in three decades. The sell-off happened almost two weeks ago as investors became less concerned about inflation.
The precious metal has become a popular way for investors to protect themselves from the threat of sharply rising prices. Many experts consider that a possible scenario in coming years as central banks pump cash into their stalled economies to fuel growth. Those policies are a key reason why an ounce of gold trades at nearly four times the price it did 10 years ago………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

With the yellow metal down about 14% this year, wouldn’t it be great to get the scoop from famed investor Jim Rogers on gold prices in 2013- specifically, why they’re down, and if investors should still bet on a long-term gold bull market?
We had a chance to ask Rogers those very questions last weekend. Sunday evening, Money Morning Executive Editor William Patalon III spoke on the phone with Rogers - who was at his home in Singapore - in a wide-ranging discussion about gold, U.S. stocks, commodities and global central banks’ “race to the bottom” - or, as Rogers calls it, “race to insanity.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Jim Rogers, who predicted a commodity rally in 1999, said he’s ready to buy gold when it hits bottom, but with prices still climbing after 9 days he may have missed it. Jim Rogers, who predicted a commodity rally in 1999, said he may buy gold if a bear market deepens and prices fall to $1,300 an ounce or below.
Bullion for immediate delivery tumbled to $1,321.95 on April 16, the lowest since January 2011, stoking a frenzy among coin and jewelry buyers from the U.S. to India and Australia. Rogers, the chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, hasn’t bought any bullion after the slump, he said in an interview………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

South Africa is the world’s biggest gold producer after China, so you would expect this year’s 15.6 percent drop in gold to have a big impact. Instead the FTSE/JSE All Share Index is flat for the year.
According to the emerging markets economics team at HSBC, tumbling gold prices may give South Africa’s exports a knock, but the negative impact will be more than offset by cheaper oil imports………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold traders are the most bullish in a month after mints around the world said demand for bullion coins is surging and central banks added to reserves even as prices slumped the most in three decades.
Fifteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, 11 were bearish and three were neutral. Sales of gold coins from the U.S. Mint are poised for the biggest month since December 2009 and the U.K. Mint said purchases tripled in April. Russia and Kazakhstan boosted reserves for a sixth consecutive month as stockpiles across central banks climbed to an eight-year high, International Monetary Fund data show………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Wholesale gold rose to an eight-session high just shy of $1450 per ounce in London trade Thursday morning, recovering 45% of this month’s near-record slump.Asian stock markets also ticked higher, but European shares were flat while commodities extended their rally.
Silver prices were unchanged for the week so far at $23.30 per ounce.Gold priced in sterling fell £10 per ounce from an eight-session high of £946 as the pound jump on news that the U.K. avoided recession – growing just 0.3% – in the first quarter of 2013………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

ABN AMRO has brought forward its forecast of $1,000/ oz to end of 2014 from end of 2015, according to it’s quarterly commodity outlook published.“Silver is expected to fall to $ 20/ oz this quarter,” it added.
ABN AMRO sees most commodity prices declining further for the remainder of 2013 before strengthening next year on economic recovery-led demand.The improving outlook and sentiment for the US and China will support cyclical commodities, especially base metals, in the near term………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Peter Krauth writes: All bull markets go through periods of consolidations and corrections. And precious metals are no exception.There has been plenty about gold’s swan dive, but less talk about silver. And at this point there’s more potential for silver than gold…significantly more.
Because the global silver market is relatively small, silver prices tend to be more volatile; the pounding selloff we witnessed in silver this past month is a testament to that fact. But volatility works both ways, so when silver rises, its price can explode higher………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Russia plans to invest $1 bln in the extraction of rare earth metals to compete with market leader China which controls around 97% of world production.
State-run Rostekh and the IST group of companies, owned by businessman Aleksandr Nesis, are planning to create a joint venture, Kommersant daily reported, citing sources close to the developments………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The exchange traded funds market in Europe will grow by around 20 per cent a year over the next decade with assets surpassing the $2tn mark by 2022, according to BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager.
Assets held in European listed ETFs (funds and products) stood at $367bn at the end of 2012 but growth in recent years has lagged behind the more mature US market because of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Thanks to the strong dollar, commodity prices have been pretty depressed over the past few months. It also doesn’t help that many are looking for a slowdown in China, a key market for commodity demand.
This is especially true in the base metal market, as China is easily the biggest consumer of copper (and other industrial metals) in the world. So, when this important country is experiencing sluggish growth-and when the dollar is strong-it can be a rough period for copper investors………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Citigroup Inc has hired two former UBS AG base metals executives to its growing metals trading desk as part of the U.S. bank’s expansion of its commodities business, the bank said on Thursday.
Rick McIntire will join as global head of base metals sales and Dylan Morgan has been appointed co-head of base metal trading alongside Tom Parkin. Both were previously at UBS………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Russian ruble rallied to lead emerging-market currencies’ gains Thursday, buoyed by the continued recovery in commodity prices.
The ruble tends to trade in line with crude oil prices since Russia is a major producer of the commodity. The Russian currency had suffered in the previous week as oil and other commodities slid heavily, but has advanced against the dollar for two straight sessions as these assets have made a comeback. On Thursday, Brent crude oil futures prices rose above $101 per barrel. In response, the ruble soared about 1% against the dollar………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Australian Industry Group (AIG) - representing 60,000 businesses spanning manufacturing, services and the mining industry - has continued its lobbying of the Australian Government on carbon tax, drawing on the rejection by the European Parliament of proposals to increase the cost price of purchasing carbon allowances.
The EU parliament was considering whether to force an increase in the cost of carbon allowances, which must be purchased by companies whose operations significantly damage the environment. Due to a surplus of carbon allowances available for purchase, the cost of allowances has fallen steadily since the introduction of the EU’s carbon trading scheme, reducing the incentive effect of the scheme for businesses to adopt environmentally-friendly practices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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