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Commodities Briefing 16.Apr 2013

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Citi Research has called an end to the supercycle for commodities but that shouldn’t come as a surprise given that it warned of a supercycle “sunset” back in March of last year. In a report dated Friday, Citi said it expects 2013 to be year in which “the death bells ring for the commodity supercycle after its duly noted sunset.” A supercycle refers to decades-long price movements.
The commodities sector saw broad losses on Monday, with gold futures logging their biggest one-day drop since the 1980s on Monday, and oil futures finishing at their lowest settlement level of the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The price of gold, as well as other commodities, could have farther to fall, Joe Terranova of Virtus Investment Partners said. “The commodities meltdown, I think, is going to continue,” he said. “And I think to figure out exactly if this is a moment where you step in and in essence buy a falling knife, you have to look back toward the past.”
On CNBC’s “Fast Money,” Terranova pointed to a high in gold back in September 2011. “That’s exactly when we had that deficit debacle in Washington, D.C.,” he said. “Gold should’ve gone higher at that point. It did not.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

We just saw a rather ugly spate of data from China, and the result has been a bit of a selloff in markets, from Asia to the U.S. Not all stocks have been held back. Netflix, for instance, just had its price target raised at Goldman Sachs and rallied 5% to start the week. But commodity stocks as a whole are taking a beating. And don’t expect the pain to end anytime soon.
You see, industrial demand from China remains the single-biggest driver of pricing for a host of materials and commodities. Base metals, from steel to copper to aluminum, and energy commodities like oil and coal and natural gas are all getting brutalized by the China slowdown………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The sell-off in commodities is getting serious in early trading on Monday. Word of Chinese GDP coming in at 7.7% against 8% expectations last night is being blamed, but today isn’t the start of the selling.
Brent crude is down 3%, but was already 15% lower that where it traded in February. Copper is near 18-month lows, aluminum is near 3-year lows and silver is down double-digits today alone………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

That’s a headline that should get your attention if you invest in commodities (or if you work at a publicly traded company that has any exposure to the commodity markets). With increasing evidence of a slowing global economy and increased selling of gold by central banks, commodities are vulnerable. While evidence suggests that the ENTIRE commodity market is experiencing unusual price deterioration right now, I want to focus on a distinct commodity segment: Commodities from Hell.
Get it? Commodities from Hell, ones that can generally be found underground such as gold (GLD), silver (SLV), coal (KOL), copper (JJC), steel (SLX), oil (OIL) and natural gas (UNG)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

An Iranian Oil Ministry official says Iran will ask OPEC to call an emergency meeting to discuss oil prices if they slump below USD 100 a barrel. “To that effect, Iran’s oil minister [Rostam Qasemi] will have telephone conservation with OPEC president about an extraordinary meeting,” the official, who was not named, said Monday.
On Sunday, Qasemi said Iran wanted oil prices to stay above USD 100 per barrel, noting that “an oil price below USD 100 is not reasonable for anyone.” Crude dropped to near USD 101 on Friday and ahead of the next meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on May 31………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Brent crude oil fell by almost 3 percent to near $100 a barrel on Monday, extending a two-week selloff that has sliced nearly 10 percent off prices,as part of a wider flight by investors from commodities.
Gold posted its biggest two-day loss in 30 years while Brent crude fell for the eighth time in 10 sessions in what analysts said were indications that a host of weak fundamental signals dominated sentiment. In the United States, crude oil stockpiles have ballooned to a 30-year high as domestic output surges, with no end in sight. Global demand has struggled due to economic uncertainty in top consuming nations………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold prices plunged again amid a general rout in commodities, sinking below $1,400 (U.S.) an ounce to mark a decline of about $200 over two days of trading. Shares of big gold producers also slumped as bullion chalked up its biggest single-day decline, in percentage terms, since early 1983.
“When gold begins to fall, it sparks margin calls, and then it’s a vicious circle,” said chief currency strategist Camilla Sutton of Bank of Nova Scotia. Just about everything looked ugly today: Silver, copper and oil also sank, as did stocks and currencies such as the Canadian dollar, which was down on a number of factors, including the decline in bullion………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold plunged more than 9% Monday to its lowest level in over two years, in the biggest one-day sell-off in decades, as a global tumble in commodities gained steam.
Gold for June delivery, the most active futures contract, lost more than $140 an ounce to trade well below $1,400, adding to Friday’s sharp sell-off, when the precious metal slumped 5%. The gold contract is now in bear market territory, having fallen 29% from its record high in September 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold imports are likely to go down by about 25 per cent this month to around 53.25 tonnes compared to the same period last year due to the declining gold prices, a bullion trade body today said.
“The imports of the yellow metal is likely to be 25 per cent less than the corresponding month last year as the gold prices are declining steadily. Usually, when the prices drop traders hold back in anticipation of further decline, while they buy when prices rise with the fear of additional increase in rates,” Bombay Bullion Association president Mohit Kamboj told here………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Last week saw the most precipitous fall in gold prices in almost two years. On Friday, on the Multi-Commodity Exchange of India gold suffered its biggest daily loss ever, and gold futures for June delivery plunged $63.50, or 4.1%, to settle just above $1,500 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the weakest closing since July, 2011.
Holdings in GLD the SPDR Gold trust ETF and the biggest exchange fund backed by gold bullion, hit 1,181.4 metric tons, the lowest in nearly three years. Today at the time of this writing gold is off nearly another 4%, trading around $1420 an ounce, more than a 20% decline from its all time high of 1923.70………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Silver futures were down sharply on Monday, falling by as much as 8% to hit the lowest level since November 2010 as investors continued to liquidate positions after prices broke below key support levels. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver futures for May delivery traded at USD24.37 a troy ounce during European morning trade, down 7.5% on the day.
Comex silver prices fell by as much as 8.5% earlier in the session to hit a daily low of USD24.09 a troy ounce, the weakest level since November 3, 2010. Silver prices were likely to find support at USD23.75 a troy ounce, the low from October 29, 2010 and resistance at USD25.03, the high from November 3, 2010………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

One of the criticisms against gold is that it is apparently a cyclical asset. Which asset is not? It is time to see through the current sell-off in gold. Two weeks ago, Bare Talk wrote that investor behaviour is pro-cyclical. It amplifies both booms and busts by buying into rising prices and selling into falling prices. It went without saying that investment recommendations are pro-cyclical too.
Nonetheless, it is good to find vindication before readers forget what they read. The price of gold is down 24% in dollar terms from the peak price of $1,900 per ounce. It is both unsurprising and wrong that epitaphs are being written on gold now………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Sentiment at this year’s CESCO copper week, in which producers, traders, consumers, investors and analysts get together, was bearish with consensus expectations for surpluses over the next couple of years and a downward trajectory for prices.
“We maintain our view that any Q2 rally in copper prices should be shorted,” Barclays said in a report. There were no significant downgrades to any specific mine production expectations for this year although risks of further labour disruptions in Chile are fairly high given it is an election year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Hedge funds have taken their most bearish view on agricultural commodities on record, despite northern hemisphere weather setbacks testing expectations of sharp recoveries in output of key products this year.
Managed money, a proxy for speculators, cut its net long in futures and options in the major 13 US-traded agricultural commodities below 60,000 contracts as of last Tuesday, Agrimoney.com calculations of regulatory data show………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 16 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

European Union carbon allowance prices may jump as much as 44 percent if the bloc’s parliament votes in favor of a plan to temporarily cut a surplus, according to Jefferies Group Inc.
Allowances for delivery in December may increase by more than 2 euros ($2.62) a metric ton should the European Parliament approve the measure to postpone the sale of some permits, said Matthew Gray, an analyst for Jefferies in London. EU carbon rose 1 cent today to 4.81 euros a ton on the ICE Futures Europe exchange at 2:30 p.m. in London………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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