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Commodities Briefing 08.Apr 2013

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Hedge funds and other big speculators have cut their bullish bets on commodities by the most since February, trade data showed on Friday, amid signs of stagnating U.S. economic recovery and uncertainty over raw materials demand.
Money managers slashed by $9.7 billion their net-long holdings across 22 commodities to $59.7 billion during the week to April 2, according to Reuters calculations of data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The global crude oil maket is well supplied and balanced, OPEC member Algeria’s Energy and Mines Minister Youcef Yousfi was quoted as saying, ahead of an OPEC meeting next month to set output policy.
“The global oil market is well supplied and suffers no imbalance between supply and demand,” the APS news agency quoted him as saying. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to meet on May 1 in Vienna to review its policy for the second half of the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

It’s official now. Everyone agrees. Rising oil prices are so last decade. A lot has happened in the world over the last three years. The Middle East has turned upside down. The eurozone appeared to be on the ropes then stumbled back into the ring. Barack Obama came back from the political dead. The Chinese economy lost altitude then took tentative flight again.
None of it has affected the price of oil much. The popular United States Oil Fund ETF, which tracks the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, is virtually flat compared to April 2010. Brent crude, which trades in London and serves as a benchmark for the rest of the world, has also remained in a historically tight range. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a report this week that it now expects China to overtake the U.S. in terms of oil imports next year. The report estimates that China will be importing 6 million barrels a day (bpd) by the end of the year, and that U.S. imports—which declined by 21 percent in 2012—will drop below the 6 million bpd mark in 2014.
The report also said that China may have to import as much as 60 percent of its oil needs this year. This is a dramatic turnaround from 2011 when the U.S. imported 8.7 million bpd compared to just 5.5 million bpd from China, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

A U.S. decision on whether to allow oil exports would be “very helpful,” amid constraints on spare production capacity, according to the International Energy Agency.
Global oil markets face a “zone of tension” because of limited amounts of unused crude that can be tapped in case of supply disruptions, IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said at a conference in Paris today. The pressure could be eased if the U.S., which largely prohibits shipment of its oil, makes a decision on whether to change its policy, van der Hoeven said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Natural gas futures in New York surged the most in four months, settling at a 20-month high, as cold weather helped erase a stockpile surplus and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its 2013 gas price forecast.
Gas jumped 4.5 percent, the biggest one-day gain since Dec. 5, as MDA Weather Services predicted below-normal temperatures in north-central states next week while Texas and the Southeast will see hotter-than-normal readings April 15-19. Unusually cold March weather pushed supplies below the five-year average for the first time since 2011, and prompted Goldman Sachs to increased its price outlook by 17 percent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency is interested in deepening its ties with emerging economies, as changes to supply and demand trends increase their role in global energy markets, the group said in a statement published on its web site Friday.
“As the global energy map is redrawn, the IEA’s 28 member countries face many of the same energy challenges as key emerging economies, and we share a common interest in building a secure, sustainable energy future,” the IEA’s Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in the statement………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Power and gas markets in the European Union are undergoing a period of substantial change due to political intervention, expansion of market reach, and uncertain supply and demand dynamics. Power and gas companies now require advanced technology to overcome challenges that threaten to remove unprepared participants from the market.
Legacy systems that have remained unchanged over the past five years, or have only had minor maintenance-related updates, will struggle to support the minimum requirements for power and gas market participants………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

It seems that collective memory is becoming shorter and shorter. We just celebrated two important holidays in the Judeo-Christian traditions that commemorate events that took place thousands of years ago. Yet, now, in the age of Internet, people seem to forget major events after weeks, or even days.
Given this weeks’ performance in the precious metals, people have forgotten that only two weeks ago Cyprus was on the brink of unraveling not only the European union, but the sacrosanct foundations of fractional banking, with the crisis highlighting the fundamental fault lines of both………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Citing the expansionary monetary policy being followed by most Central Banks, Japan’s policy becoming significantly more so following recent announcements, and the Mario Draghi statement yesterday which emphasised the downside risks to the Eurozone economy and implied further extension of the ECB easing programme, Germany’s Commerzbank analysts see gold as being in strong demand in the short to medium term.
The analysts note also that, contrary to some reports, India appears to be seeing high gold demand levels, noting a statement from the former chairman of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation that Indian gold imports in the March quarter were running at around, or higher than last year’s 228 tonnes and anticipates imports increasing some 30% year on year in the current quarter as wedding season demand kicks in………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The dramatic 2-3 day take down in gold spot pricing action smells and looks like capitulation to us at The Market Trend Forecast. We have been calling this entire 19-20 month consolidation period as a Primary wave 4 correction pattern, though complicated for sure. It has had multiple false rallies and buy and sell signals the entire time. With that said, the pattern is set up a for final 5th wave decline, which we are seeing now at the beginning of April.
Traditionally, gold tends to meander or be weak in April anyways on a seasonal basis. This sets Gold up to rally in May into July with another soft patch, followed by a fall rally. However, our technical analysis is predicated on our Elliott Wave analysis, which says this entire 20 month correction is a “Double Three” correction pattern. Essentially its two ABC patterns with an “X” Wave rally in the middle to really confuse everyone………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

From a technical perspective, the price of silver is obviously breaking down. The market has been ‘trading heavy’ for a while. Furthermore, the entire commodities complex is trading in a downward trending channel, except for oil. The U.S. Dollar is also stronger because of the Euro aftermath.
Nevertheless, lots of silver longs are still holding their positions since open interest has remained high despite the move down from the 32 region. Open interest will usually fall on big declines like this, but many longs have hung on and some believe the big shorts want to force a real washout before covering a large portion of their positions………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Reading between the lines in a Barclays report on precious metals, silver investment demand needs to grow further this year to reduce the risk of price fall as there is a possibility of market surplus for 2013.
There have been signs of improvement in industrial demand with semiconductor billings recovering in January globally but weakness persists in Europe and Japan. Silver has endured the most downside pressure, which is unsurprising given the weak industrial demand and mixed investor interest………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Platinum is likely to make a sustained up-tick as the second half of the year unfolds, stated a recent market analysis by London based Barclays.
Challenged supply backdrop, reduction in net fund length and scope for improvement in underlying demand as the year unfolds would support platinum movement, the report added. In the recent days of trading, the PGMs were unable to escape unscathed, but counterpart of platinum, palladium suffered the smallest losses………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

U.S. production of refined copper in 2012 decreased by about 3% from that in 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey observed in a Mineral Industry Survey made public Thursday.
Nevertheless, mine production for the full-year 2012 was at its highest level since 2009, according to the USGS. Copper mining production increases in Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico were partially upset by lower production in Utah, “where production at Kennecott Utah Copper’s Bingham Canyon Mine decreased by 32,000 metric tons.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

It was a real bear market for steel in March across the globe with both domestic and export demand weak in major producing countries and there are no indications of a major price recovery in April.
In US market, flat steel market was bearish with The Steel Index (TSI) US Mid West (FoB Mill) HR Coil Index up 2.3% to US $618/ton after attaining a high of $622 per ton and declining trend is visible in early April, TSI Monthly Steel Report said. Cold Rolled (CR) coil prices were shaky and remained flat at the end of the month………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Investing in the S&P 500 and commodities can be a wise idea to grow your portfolio over the course of time, however there can be tumultuous times that can have your portfolio decline dramatically as in the case of the financial collapse of 2008. Those times are over and the S&P is right near its old highs and the Nasdaq composite is at 12 year highs and the commodity markets have rallied tremendously in the last couple of years.
The main rule here is to stick it out even through the rough times and remember this is long term investing and should be treated in that fashion. One main concern with investors in America is the fact that the dollar continues its bearish trend and continues to decline over time due to government printing money and several stimulus packages which have not worked and has ballooned the debt to over $16 trillion dollars which is at an all-time high……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Some call it the most famous pizza purchase in history: In May 2010, a programmer called Laszlo asked an online forum if anyone would buy him a couple of pies in exchange for 10,000 Bitcoins, an experimental online currency launched in 2009.
“No weird fish topping or anything like that,” he wrote. With each Bitcoin fetching less than a cent at the time, the order was worth about $41. Today, it would be valued at about $1.4 million (1.08 million euros). ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

China’s Shenzhen city has become the first in the country to set a launch date for a new carbon emissions trading pilot scheme, as part of a package of measures designed to curb emissions from energy-intensive industries.
According to local reports, Shenzhen, a major city in the south of southern China’s Guangdong Province, will launch its carbon trading platform on 17 June this year. The world’s biggest producer of carbon dioxide (CO2) is set to launch seven pilot emissions trading schemes in cities and provinces from this year, covering at least 700 million tonnes of annual CO2 emissions………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 08 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

To reduce emissions in a meaningful way, governments need to accept higher investment into new green technologies as well as some protectionism to complement carbon taxes and “cap-and-trade” systems.
U.S. President Barack Obama wants the U.S. Congress to revive a failed “cap-and-trade” bill that would put the U.S. on the road to an environmental policy – a policy departure for the country that stands out as the leading industrial power without one. Obama wants it so much he warned Congress in his recent State of the Union speech that if they failed to form a market-based solution to climate change, he would go it alone………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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