Sun, Dec 21, 2014
A A A
Welcome preal121
RSS
Commodities Briefing 04.Apr 2013

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Commodities supercycle is “probably” over and prices are unlikely to match their performance over the past decade, according to UBS AG.
Growth in China is slowing and becoming less commodity- intensive, London-based strategists Stephane Deo and Ramin Nakisa wrote in a report dated yesterday. The bull cycle for commodities and company profits may also be over because cheap supply of labor in China and Eastern Europe has now been absorbed, they wrote………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold’s precipitous decline in recent months has garnered a lot of attention in the headlines. Of course, gold is only a single commodity in an asset class that had, for the most part, a pretty dismal first quarter of 2013.
In a recent report on commodities, Société Générale analysts Michael Haigh and Jesper Dannesboe sought to explain the reason for across-the-board weakness in 2013: The conditions are finally coming into place for a sustainable US economic recovery. This will provide some support for pro-cyclical commodities. However, while the US economy has arrived at ‘recovery-friendly conditions’, Europe is not there yet, and the recent acceleration in China’s economic growth is likely to fade by mid-year as the Chinese government’s policies to rebalance the economy act as a brake………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Prices of metals and oil dropped after the investment bank also downgraded estimates and outlook for the coming year. Commodity markets were lower in early trade Wednesday after Credit Suisse analysts said they are expecting weakness in commodity markets over the next few years.
The analysts slashed their price targets for nearly every commodity for 2013 and 2014 because of both lower demand forecasts and, more so, higher supply forecasts………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

This time, stocks and commodities are moving in different directions. Stocks have attained record highs during this year’s first quarter, while commodities have moved into negative territory. From January to March, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index increased 10 percent. In contrast, the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index declined 11 percent during the same quarter.
World economic conditions — recession in Europe, insignificant growth in Japan, the slow U.S. economic recovery, and especially the slowdown in China — have contributed to the decline in commodity prices. According to the Wall Street Journal quarterly Markets Review and Outlook, the price of almost every commodity has declined………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Barclays Plc (BARC), until now this year’s most bullish of 44 oil-price forecasters, cut its predictions for Brent and WTI crude, citing fewer supply threats. West Texas Intermediate crude will average $95 a barrel this year, compared with a previous estimate of $108, Barclays said in an e-mailed report.
Brent, the benchmark grade for more than half the world’s oil, will average $112 a barrel, down from $125, the highest of all analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg before today. Brent traded at about $108.41 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange at 4:50 p.m. in London, while WTI was at $95.42 on the New York Mercantile Exchange………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

China could overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest oil importer by 2014, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said, the latest evidence of how the American shale boom is reshaping global energy markets.
“With the shale boom in the (U.S.) threatening to drastically reduce America’s oil-import needs, China is expected to take its place in the number one spot,” OPEC said in a report posted on its website this week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Chinese oil demand is expected to surpass the United States by next year in part because of North American production gains, OPEC said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a report sent to Bloomberg News that China may take on more than 6 million barrels of oil per day by the end of 2013. By next year, U.S. oil imports may drop to less than that mark, the cartel said.
In its March report, OPEC said the Chinese economy was expected to grow 8.1 percent this year. Chinese crude oil imports for January were near historic levels at 5.92 million barrels per day, a 6 percent increase from December………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

U.S. oil production is putting a crimp on demand from OPEC suppliers, the cartel said in its monthly report for March. Saudi Arabia alone cut its output by around 700,000 barrels per day during the last two months in 2012. Some reports said that if U.S. oil production expands as it has, it may overtake Saudi Arabia by the end of the decade.
That did little to discourage Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, who said Asian demand may keep oil markets bustling. OPEC, in its last report, said it left its predictions for 2013 unchanged from last year. Though Asian demand may indeed keep the cartel relevant, internal developments in member states may crimp its mid-term potential………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The world’s energy demand is growing with increasing population and rapid development in emerging markets. Today, about 1.1 billion people in the developed world consume 110 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in primary energy.
The developing world’s 5.8 billion people consume 140 million boe/d. What this means is that if the developing world were to consume primary energy even at the level of the EU (the most efficient energy users in the developed world), the planet would need a further 270 million boe/d to meet demand. This is more than double the current primary energy consumption………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Credit Suisse Wednesday cut its outlook on gold prices for this year and next, as it expects Asian physical demand for the metal will not compensate for a lack of investment interest in other regions. The bank cut its average price forecast for gold this year 9.2% to $1,580 a troy ounce and its 2014 average price forecast 12.8% to $1,500/oz.
“While the problems in Europe and, perhaps, concerns about the impact of the U.S. sequester, may keep the metal reasonably well supported during the current quarter, we expect further weakness through the second half of the year,” the bank said. “By long-term historical standards gold remains overvalued, both in real terms and relative to other commodities and assets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Factor # 1: Central Bank Buying: A recent Businessweek.com article highlighted that central banks are still purchasing gold even as the price has continued to fall and hover around the $1600 level. In the Businessweek.com article, two statements lead me to believe the price of gold is heading higher, or at the very least keep a floor under the price.
Factor # 2: Gold Miner Operating Expenses: With costs for gold miners rising, that could lead to production shutdowns, because mining will not be economical for gold miners at current prices. A recent Bloomberg article highlighted the increasing costs for gold miners in South Africa………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Investor sentiment is the single most important factor driving gold prices higher or lower, Says CPM Group MD, Jeff Christian. And, it is for this reason that gold prices are likely to move lower this year.
Christian explains that more than a third of the independent variables that seem to affect gold prices are related to investment demand “and it’s not so much the underlying economic environment as it is investors’ interpretation and sentiments towards the underlying economic environment that are really what’s important.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold prices fell on Wednesday, extending the previous day’s sharp slide, as the metal’s appeal as a haven from risk was hurt by speculation the U.S. economic recovery is gaining traction and a retreat in concerns over Cyprus.
Gold slid 1.4 percent on Tuesday, its biggest one-day drop since February 20, as U.S. stocks rallied towards record highs. Firmer appetite for assets seen as higher risk, like equities, dented interest in safe-haven bullion………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The gold price dropped another $25 on Wednesday, a second day of steep losses, bringing the yellow metal within shouting distance of a year low. In afternoon trade gold was down 1.6%, changing hands for $1,550 an ounce, levels not seen since June last year.
Gold has now given up 7.4% of its value from its opening levels for the year and is homing in on a 52-week low of $1,535 set in May. Sentiment towards gold has soured this year as investors in gold-backed ETFs continued to abandon the hard asset in favour of riskier bets like stocks, which have recently hit record highs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Rounding out the Q1 of 2013 we saw a record quarter in terms of net inflows into ETFs. Equity linked ETFs were very strong as were flows into dividend income funds and minimum volatility funds. Despite the continued news pouring out of the Eurozone and more recently Cypress the markets remained resilient as we wrapped up the first quarter. The DJIA finished the quarters with an 11.6% gain while the Nasdaq Composite rose 9.1% and S&P gained 10.8%.
Flows: For the month of March Knight ETF Trading had accounted for 14.25% of advertised ETF block shares traded trading in 1,449 unique ETFs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Signs just keep on creeping up that the materials sector is in trouble and in today’s episode of “As Materials ETFs Tumble,” the Market Vectors Steel ETF is in the spotlight. On light volume, SLX is down 0.7 percent and while that may not sound like much, Wednesday’s decline extends a woeful start to 2013 for SLX and the ETF is now flirting with a year-to-date loss of 18 percent.
To put that performance into context, the Materials Select Sector SPDR, the worst-performing of the nine sector SPDRs in the first quarter , is still clinging to a year-to-date gain………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

China and Australia will launch direct trading between the two currencies in Shanghai and Sydney within weeks to lower trade transaction costs, a foreign bank source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.
The new currency deal will eliminate the spread between U.S. dollars and Australian dollars from the cost of converting between the yuan and the Aussie dollar………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

European Union carbon permits may rise as much as 14 percent before the bloc’s parliament votes April 16 on a measure to boost prices, according to Milan Hudak, a Prague-based analyst at Virtuse Energy sro.
Allowances for December have jumped 81 percent to 5.08 ($7.37) euros a metric ton on London’s ICE Futures Europe since falling to a record on Jan. 24. They may advance to 5.80 euros as traders bet that the bloc’s assembly will approve an amendment to the emissions-trading law that would allow the European Commission to temporarily withhold 900 million permits from the market, Hudak said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

EU emissions fell by 1.4 per cent in 2012, according to new European Commission data. While that may sound like good news, some analysts say it really shows the extent of the problems with the EU’s carbon trading scheme.
Falling emissions: The European Commission released the results yesterday, based on preliminary data reported by the projects and companies covered by the emissions trading scheme (ETS). Around 90 per cent of the included projects have so far reported to the Commission………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 04 April 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Carbon emissions in the EU fell by 1.4 percent in 2012, raising hope the bloc will hit its targets on global warming gasses. The European Commission released the figures on Tuesday (2 April), with data from 89 percent of the roughly 12,000 installations in the EU emission’s trading scheme (ETS) indicating that emissions fell to 1.79 billion tonnes last year.
The figures, which will be confirmed in May, show two consecutive reductions in carbon emissions after a 2.8 percent dip in 2011. The results put the EU on track to meet its existing targets for a 20 percent reduction in overall emissions by 2020 from 1990 levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

See more articles in the archive

banner
banner
December 2014
S M T W T F S
« Nov    
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031