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Commodities Briefing 09.Jan 2013

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Commodities prices, particularly for base metals, should recover along with the Chinese economy in the first quarter of 2013, according to a DBS Bank report published on Jan 8. “The base metals recovery should continue, initially on confirmation of China’s rebound, and eventually when the world’s second-largest economy betters the consensus estimate of 8.1 percent growth,” said Lim Say Boon, chief investment officer at DBS.
DBS expects China to record a 9 percent economic growth rate in 2013. Beijing’s new leaders will likely provide fresh monetary and fiscal support to an economy already in the early stages of a business cycle turnaround………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Commodities as an Asset Class: Deutsche Bank expect a more constructive outlook for commodity returns heading into 2013, viewing energy and industrial metals as undervalued.
And while fundamentals are tight in the agricultural sector, from a valuation perspective this sector has “moved into expensive territory in the event of an easing in supply tightness,” according to senior commodities analyst Michael Lewis………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Crude-oil output from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell in December as Saudi Arabia curtailed production, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
OPEC members pumped 30.28 million barrels a day in December, down from a revised 30.46 million barrels a day in November, according to the EIA’s monthly short-term energy outlook. The drop came as Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, cut output by 200,000 barrels a day to 9.5 million barrels a day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned nearly $1.154 trillion last year. It projected the earnings to remain at a historically high level of around $1.12 trillion in 2013.
The dataset is from their industry leading Global M&A Energy Transactions Database and includes all upstream oil and gas deals with values disclosed. According to Brian Lidsky, Managing Director with Houston-based PLS Inc., “Total deal value in 2012 surged 50 per cent higher versus 2011 to a record of $254 billion, eclipsing the prior record of $212 billion in 2010………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

During last week, the price of oil increased by 2.5%. United States Oil (USO) also rose by 2.1%. Due to the recent rally of oil, it may have contributed to the recent rise of energy companies’ stock such as Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM).
Will oil prices continue their recent rally? Let’s examine the recent developments in the oil market and try to figure what’s next for oil………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday that it expects to see Brent crude oil and retail gasoline prices fall from their average 2012 levels this year and next. Brent crude-oil spot prices averaged $112 per barrel in 2012, the EIA said in its short-term energy outlook report.
It forecast a fall to an average of $105 in 2013 and $99 in 2014. It also said regular U.S. retail gasoline prices were set to fall from an average $3.63 a gallon last year to $3.44 this year and $3.34 in 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

As we find ourselves deep into the winter, it is becoming increasingly clear that we are not getting the cold weather and the demand that comes with it to push natural gas higher. That is why for the Feb contract I am a seller, we could see a 2 dollar handle when Feb expires on Jan 29th.
Here are the facts behind the reasoning, Last week on Futures Now I said I thought natural Gas which was trading at 318 would get back to the 332 area , well it went to 335 and then failed miserably………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The year of the Mayan ‘apocalypse’ has come and gone, and yet that sense of impending doom persists as it has throughout human history. That sense of doom has driven people to accumulate gold in the belief it is the only investment that can store value in turbulent times.
Doom and gloom and gold come in waves – and we are somewhere in the midst of the latest. Twelve consecutive years of price advances have brought bullion from $280 (U.S.) an ounce in 2000 to $1,700 (U.S.) at the end of 2012………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold investors have been on a wild ride in recent years. In 2001, an ounce was worth less than $300. By September 2011, prices had reached an all-time high of $1,920. The boom faltered last year and today gold sits at $1,640 an ounce.
A fresh rally in 2013 is predicted, particularly if debt worries in Europe grow or if the UK’s credit rating is downgraded. Banks such as HSBC and Goldman Sachs estimate gold to be near $1,800 an ounce in a year’s time. Gold is considered a safe haven because it tends to hold its value over time, even when other assets crash………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold Bullion ended Tuesday morning in London at $1655 per ounce, regaining ground lost yesterday to climb back to where it started the week, with dealers reporting signs of strong demand from India and China, the world’s two biggest gold buying nations.
China celebrates Lunar New Year on 10 February this year. Official customs data from Hong Kong meantime shows China imported 90.7 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong in November, a 91% increase from the previous month. The volume of gold flowing the other way rose 23% to 27.7 tonnes. Hong Kong is widely regarded as the major conduit for Chinese precious metals imports………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Copper prices finished 2012 on a strong note and sprinted to multi-month highs to ring in the New Year . Aside from piggybacking on the stock market rally, the strength in copper prices has been underpinned by what seem to be some bullish supply and demand fundamentals.
Expectations for growth of 2012 Chilean production ran high, even as recently as several months ago. Early estimates put output up by as much as 10% over 2011. Between June and August, monthly production figures averaged 7.7% growth………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Oil ETFs continued to rise slightly today, however oil ETFs’ latest bullish swing may soon be over. The West Texas Intermediate Crude oil price per barrel dropped .12% to close at $93.16, while the United States Oil Fund ETF gained .12%. The United States 12 Month Oil Fund ETF performed similarly with a .22% rise.
So, are oil ETFs’ temporary rise soon to be over? According the RSI of NYSEARCA:USO, NYSEARCA:USO’s rise just might be over………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Sidetracked by the discussion over the “fiscal cliff” and possibly a New Year’s hangover, it’s time to face 2013 in earnest. Is the yen doomed? Will the euro shine? What about Asian and emerging market currencies? Will gold continue its ascent? And the greenback, will it be in the red?
“Central banks hope for the best, but plan for the worst” was our theme a year ago. With everyone afraid of the fallout from the Eurozone, printing presses in major markets were working overtime………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gunnar Hoest, head of commodities, Asia, has left Deutsche Bank while Morgan Stanley’s Harry Soh is set to retire, sources have confirmed. Deutsche Bank’s Singapore-based head of commodities, Asia, Gunnar Hoest left the firm in mid-December last year as part of the bank’s restructuring process, market sources have confirmed.
Hoest’s exit followed shortly after Bank of America Merrill Lynch Asia-Pacific commodities head Benjamin Tsai was confirmed to be stepping down in early in December………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Brazilian real led declines among emerging-market currencies Tuesday on concerns that higher future energy prices could stifle economic growth in Latin America’s biggest economy.
Driving the worries, the Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper reported that Brazil’s government might have to ration energy as it is concerned that low water levels in reservoirs could put a strain on energy capacity………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

The euro turned lower against the dollar on Tuesday, giving up modest gains after Japan’s finance minister said Tokyo would use part of its foreign-exchange reserves to buy bonds issued by the European Stability Mechanism, the euro zone’s bailout fund.
The ICE dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose to 80.323 compared with 80.256 in U.S. trading late Monday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 January 2013 by VRS |  Email |Print

With its carbon-trading market and tough emissions targets, Europe plays the part of responsible adult at climate-policy negotiations. But in a growing blemish on its low-carbon image, the region has fallen behind North America in the slow crawl to demonstrate systems for capturing greenhouse-gas emissions from power plants and industry — even as it increases its use of coal.
Announcements made just before Christmas underlined Europe’s troubles in launching large carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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