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Commodities Briefing 29.Nov 2012

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The world economy is in its best shape in 18 months as China’s prospects improve and the U.S. looks likely to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll of investors.
Two-thirds of the 862 surveyed described the global economy as either stable or improving. That’s up from just over half who said that in September and is the most since May 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

It’s true that the United States and most American citizens are in a truly terrific amount of debt. But the market is infinitely more complicated than most people think. And in one of those strange twists, while the whole world seems to be circling the drain in debt – American savings deposits are through the roof.
Don’t get too excited – the current debt levels still dwarf our saving. But with the fiscal cliff looming, and a variety of other “uncertainties” plaguing the market, people seem to want to save in the safest way possible……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Rabobank 2013 Commodities Outlook: Agri markets to remain volatile as fundamentals ‘rebalance on a tightrope’. Volatility in agri commodity prices looks set to continue into 2013, according to a report from Rabobank’s Agri Commodity Markets Research department. This will be particularly true for grain and oilseeds markets, with a supply squeeze in the first six months expected to push prices higher, before an expected production rebound leads to a weakening in prices in the second half of the year.
The report says soymeal is the commodity likely to show the largest price decline by the end of 2013. In contrast, Rabobank analysts expect palm oil to be the strongest performer, as Chinese imports and biofuel demand drive prices higher after the sell-off in 2012………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Canada needs to capitalize on its booming oil sector to maintain a leadership position in an evolving energy market, the IEA’s top economist said.
The U.S. Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration states that Canada has the third-largest amount of oil reserves in the world behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. About 98 percent of Canadian reserves exist as oil sands, which the EIA said accounts for 170 billion barrels worth of oil………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Oil prices declined this week following a report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that major world economies were expected to make an “uneven recovery” over the coming years. In early November, OPEC said ongoing concerns about the sovereign debt crisis in European economies, coupled with problems with other leading economies, would be a drag on commodity markets.
In the United States, meanwhile, partisan rancor over the so-called fiscal cliff means the world economy is nowhere near a post-recession climate………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Rarely does the release of a data-driven report on energy trends trigger front-page headlines around the world. That, however, is exactly what happened on November 12th when the prestigious Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) released this year’s edition of its World Energy Outlook. In the process, just about everyone missed its real news, which should have set off alarm bells across the planet.
Claiming that advances in drilling technology were producing an upsurge in North American energy output, World Energy Outlook predicted that the United States would overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the planet’s leading oil producer by 2020………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Coal-dependent Poland is set to host next year’s U.N. talks on slowing climate change after OPEC member Qatar in 2012, a move dismaying environmentalists who say both oppose action to reduce use of fossil fuels.
Poland formally submitted its offer for Warsaw to host the talks on Wednesday to almost 200 nations at this year’s meeting in Doha. No other countries made an offer at a planning session on Wednesday, making its selection pretty much automatic………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The natural gas market has been facing a generational shift over the last several years. A technological revolution that began in the United States has unlocked billions of tons of previously unreachable natural gas, both in the US and abroad.
These technological improvements are signs of a paradigmatic shift in the natural gas industry, and that shift is having repercussions on the energy industry globally. In this week’s report, the Commodity Investor examines this technological revolution and its deep impact on the natural gas industry………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Copper supply shortages will extend into the first half of next year as an accelerating Chinese economy more than doubles the pace of growth in global consumption even as mines extract a record amount of metal.
Demand will outpace supply by 316,000 metric tons in the first six months, more than all copper in London Metal Exchange warehouses, before a surplus emerges in the second half, Barclays Plc estimates. Production has lagged behind consumption since 2010, according to the International Copper Study Group………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Global mining and metals deal values and volumes are down, with Canadian numbers falling in the first nine months this year, advisory firm Ernst & Young’s (E&Y’s) seventh twice-yearly ‘Global Capital Confidence Barometer’ has found.
Deal values had declined by 43% year-on-year and volumes had declined by 16% year-over-year. “Our survey results reveal that only 38% of companies, down from 53% in April, are focused on growth in the next 12 months, while 27% are refocusing on business fundamentals, including cost reduction and operational efficiency,” E&Y Canadian mining and metals leader Bruce Sprague said on Wednesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

A U.S. Geological Survey scientific investigations report forecasts that South Africa, Russia, Canada, and Zimbabwe will continue to be the principal sources of PGM for at least the next decade.
Global platinum mining capacity is expected to increase by 24,000 kg in South Africa, 9,000 kg in Russia, 3,000 kg in Russia and 2,000 kg in Zimbabwe from 2011 to 2015, according to the report authored by David R. Wilburn………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Several huge liquefied natural gas projects have pushed committed investment in the resources sector to a record $268 billion, the government’s commodity forecaster says. But in a sign of the growing risks to the investment pipeline, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics has warned that cost blowouts and weak conditions could constrain future spending growth.
Figures published on Wednesday said there were 87 major projects in Australia worth a collective $268 billion that had been given the green light to proceed………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Eurozone, whose economy contracted 0.1% in 2012´s third quarter, continues to show little sign of recovery, with France now looking like it could be dragged toward the PIIGS´ mire too and Spain grappling with the possibility of Catalonian independence while also trying to kickstart their economy.
What´s more Europe´s leaders failed to reach agreement yet again on how to assist Greece once more. In the United Kingdom, if the Euroskeptic Tories get their way, David Cameron may push Britain to “second-class membership” status of the EU before long, further weakening the bloc, amid difficult negotiations on the upcoming EU budget………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold rebounded from the biggest drop in more than three weeks as investor holdings expanded to a record and optimism returned that the so-called fiscal cliff in the U.S. will be avoided, hurting the dollar.
Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.2 percent to $1,723.70 an ounce and traded at $1,720.35 at 11:58 a.m. in Singapore. The price dropped 1.3 percent yesterday, the biggest fall since Nov. 2, on concern that a U.S. deal won’t be agreed. Bullion for February delivery gained as much as 0.4 percent to $1,726 an ounce on the Comex, and was at $1,722.50………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold prices staged a mild rebound Thursday in Asia on relief buying after they were slammed overnight over a host of concerns, disregarding for the moment optimism over the U.S. fiscal-cliff talks that boosted other risk assets.
The yellow metal’s December futures rose $4.50, or 0.3%, to $1,721 an ounce in electronic trading. The mild recovery followed a convergence of technical selling, deflationary concerns and U.S. dollar strength that sank December futures by $25.80 during Wednesday’s regular session on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had slumped as much as $36.80 at one point………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold prices may witness strong appreciation in 2013 as central banks print more of their respective prices which will push up prices of the yellow metal, according to Michael Lombardi, lead contributor and financial expert at Profit Confidential.
In a recent article in Profit Confidential, he pointed out that,“from 2008 to 2011 alone, the Federal Reserve has printed $2.3 trillion. Other central banks are doing the same,” notes Lombardi. He concludes, “…gold meets all the criteria to soar even higher. Uncertainty is still present, demand is increasing, and central banks are expected to continue printing fiat money.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Following on from our recent article on China’s gold reserves – and everyone else’s for that matter – we were fascinated to read the most recent issue of Grant Williams’ (no relation) Things that make you go hmmm report which covers some of the same ground and much more – but in hugely more detail.
This not only broadly comes to some of the same conclusions, but many more as well, coupled with supporting charts and data, all of which have to be disturbing for those who still believe that Central Banks and governments are truly open in their pronouncements on the levels of their gold reserves – and in particular regarding the gold held in the big U.S. Fed and U.K. Bank of England gold repositories………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Silver may be ready for a rally above $44 an ounce by the end of this year, said TD Securities in a commodity snippet.
According to TDS, the combination of industrial consumption, investor demand and a poor primary silver production outlook next year prompts them to think that the metal could trend above $44 an ounce by the end of the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The recent rally in agricultural commodity markets, which has seen grain prices jump by 45.3% between 1 June and 30 August, serves as a stark reminder of the long-term global food supply/demand imbalance. For investors however, the greatest opportunities could lie among agricultural solution providers, so-called agribusiness, according to Allianz Global Investors.
This summer’s North American drought, the worst drought since the 1950s, has decimated fields across the US Farm Belt forcing the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to slash corn and soybean yield estimates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

As the fourth-largest producer of gold in the world, the fortunes of the South African economy are often viewed as hitched to the performance of the yellow metal itself. When it comes to ETFs, the correlations between gold and South African equities are not always as intimate as some investors think.
For example, in the past month, the iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (EZA) has slumped 0.7% while the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is higher by 0.2%. That indicates that EZA does not always move in lockstep with gold futures………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The first ETFs tracking platinum and silver were scheduled to debut today on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx), while a third physical gold ETF is also launched.
The ETFs will be the first three launched by ETF Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd. (ETFS) on the HKEx. All three ETFs—ETFS Physical Silver ETF, ETFS Physical Platinum ETF, and ETFS Physical Gold ETF are designed to track the London benchmark precious metals prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney vowed he’d do this as president. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has been a public advocate of it. But the White House says it would not label the nation’s largest trading partner — China — a currency manipulator.
In its semi-annual report to Congress on international economic and exchange rate policies, the Treasury Department says China has taken steps to appreciate its currency, the renminbi, and “Chinese authorities have substantially reduced the level of official intervention in exchange markets since the third quarter of 2011.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 29 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

World corn production may witness a significant growth this year drought like condition in major corn growing areas.
A recent data by the U.S. Grains Council shows that world corn production of 839 mn metric tons for the 2012-2013 marketing year will be the second highest on record, down 37 mn tons from 2011-2012 but up 8.2 mn tons from 2010-2011, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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