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Commodities Briefing 26.Nov 2012

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

On the face of it, economics has had a dreadful decade: it offered no prediction of the subprime or euro crises, and only bitter arguments over how to solve them. But alongside these failures, a small group of the world’s top microeconomists are quietly revolutionising the discipline. Working for big technology firms such as Google, Microsoft and eBay, they are changing the way business decisions are made and markets work.
Take, for example, the challenge of keeping costs down. An important input for a company like Yahoo! is internet bandwidth, which is bought at group level and distributed via an internal market. Demand for bandwidth is quite lumpy, with peaks and troughs at different times of the day. This creates a problem: because spikes in demand must be met, firms run with costly spare capacity much of the time………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The African economy has started to boom after a sustainable period of ignorance by the multinational companies. The scenario has now started to change where people are more interested to invest in Africa. Investors of the global commodity market soon realise that the return on investment in Africa was relatively higher as compared to the other countries and is expected to rise exponentially
Investments in Africa 2013 which will be held on the 5th and 6th of March in Johannesburg will address the challenges and the profitable opportunities available in the region coupled with the regulatory policies with a focus on financial stability………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Chinese investments in Brazil are clearly moving from interests in natural resources, most notably minerals, to strategic assets and industrialized products, China-Brazil Business Council consultant and chief economist, Claudio Frischtak told reporters during a panel at the China-Brazil Business Council seminar, held in São Paulo.
Frischtak said that “After the arrival of large companies to invest in mineral commodities and infrastructure production, and a second phase of investments in the car manufacturing sector, Brazil is about to receive a third wave of Chinese investments.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The world’s farmers are the canaries in the mine when it comes to climate change. What affects farmers affects the global food supply and causes the price rises that hit middle class wallets and increases the risk of hunger for the world’s poor.
Climate change is certainly not the only culprit when it comes to food insecurity. A complex cocktail of demographic, economic and policy changes can be blamed for increased pressure on the food supply………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The recently issued World Oil Outlook report by Opec comes at a time when the oil refining industry is passing through many changes around the world. While the refinery distillation capacity is stagnant in the US, it is faced with sale or closure of in Europe but more than compensated by an enormous expansion in Asia and the Middle East.
Oil demand in the US is down or stagnant at best while a reduction in oil demand is already a fact in Europe. Therefore, between 2008 and 2011 two million barrels a day (mbd) of refining capacity is closed for good and only in 2011 and so far in 2012, 1.7mbd is closed in Europe alone………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Reports by the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) usually find their way to news and media organizations. After all, this is the body that advises some 28 energy consumer countries of the top leading economies around the world.
But the last World Energy Outlook released earlier this month has managed to attract more than the usual coverage. The simple reason attributes this to the IEA’s new prediction that the United States is on its way to overtake both Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world top oil producer in just five years and in just three years it could overtake Russia as the top natural gas producer………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

India’s net gold import for domestic consumption is likely to be about 800 tonnes this year following a pick-up in demand during the festive season, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Last year, the net import for domestic consumption was 969 tonnes.
“The first two quarters the demand was not that great following economic downturn, monsoon deficit, duty issues and jewellers strike, high prices. However, it picked up last month in the festival season and this year we expect the gold demand to be around 800 tonne,” WGC Director (Investment) Amresh Acharya told PTI………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Marc Faber is one of the very successful investors on earth. He recently explained his view on the monetary policies of the developed regions in the world. Obviously he is no fan of the Keynesian way of thinking which is applied by the central banks in the developed regions.
The Keynesian policy considers easy money as a way out of economic recession and deflation. They argue that money creation smoothens out the business cycle. In his presentation, Marc Faber demonstrates that these kind of interventions achieve exactly the opposite: they make the business cycles much more violent, create extreme fluctuations in economic activity and result in far more financial volatility………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold investment worldwide has grown dramatically in the last few years, but compared with the total stock of financial assets, gold bullion investment is still just a tiny proportion. Sales of gold jewelry across Asia are seen surging as the local economies boom and private investment grows.
Among the many reasons for the steadily rising gold prices, gold mining companies worldwide also have had a substantial role as they have failed to meet the growing demand from gold jewelry and gold investment buyers, pushing the gold price steadily higher………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Whilst it is generally true to say that gold and silver tend to follow one another in terms of market trends and price action, this is not always the case. In trading, correlations between markets and instruments do fall out of step from time to time, and this is certainly the case with gold and silver at present on the daily chart.
Whilst not an extreme example perhaps, nevertheless, silver futures have picked up some bullish momentum in the last few days, a sentiment which has been lacking for gold, which remains waterlogged in sideways congestion for the time being………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Recent action in silver has been very bullish. It barely paid lip service to the technical requirement to drop back and form a Right Shoulder to its Head-and-Shoulders bottom before breaking out of this base pattern back last Tuesday, without waiting for either gold to break out, or for the dollar to break down.
When gold did actually break out on Friday, and the dollar broke down, it built on these achievements by breaking clear above the resistance near to its 50-day moving average………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Nickel, this year’s worst-performing metal, is rallying as analysts from Standard Bank Plc to BNP Paribas SA forecast a smaller-than-expected supply glut in 2013. Standard Bank reduced its estimate for the surplus by 17 percent on Oct. 15, citing project delays, and BNP Paribas said Nov. 12 it now expects output to match demand, after cutting its projection three times since April.
Credit Suisse Group AG and Citigroup Inc. also lowered forecasts in the past two months. Nickel will average $19,000 a metric ton in the second quarter, 14 percent more than now, the median of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Tin prices on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) is expected to hover around US$20,500 a tonne this week, said a dealer.“The market price direction will remain uncertain due to the prolonged unsettled eurozone crisis,” he said. The tin prices were likely to trade in a tight range, he added.
During the week, the tin prices moved between US$20,400 and US$20,800 a tonne, with scattered buying mainly supported by the European, Japanese and local buyers. The tin prices were on the uptrend on most days despite the commodity’s seesaw performance on the London Metal Exchange (LME)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Many traders remain sidelined in industrial base metals but activity should pick up whenever data shows improvement in the economy of key commodity consumer China, said Deutsche Bank in a commodity snippet.
“The complex is starting to show some signs of life and there is the potential that current levels could represent a multi-quarter low,” said Germanay’s biggest bank in a weekly report………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Jim Rogers started on Wall Street back in the 60s and went on to co-found the Quantum Fund with George Soros. Then he packed up and moved to Singapore, essentially shorting the west.
Now he’s heavily invested in agriculture, gold, and silver, and he is training his children to speak Mandarin because he thinks the balance of power is shifting to Asia………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Will the U.S. dollar maintain its status as the world’s reserve currency? Will the euro or the IMF’s SDR become viable alternatives? How will China’s policies affect global currency balances? Will gold continue to reassert itself as more of a currency than a commodity?
The nine authors whose original essays are collected in Currencies after the Crash: The Uncertain Future of the Global Paper-Based Currency System, edited with commentary by Sara Eisen of Bloomberg TV (McGraw-Hill, 2013), tackle these and many other topics that every investor should understand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 26 November 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Could the Australian dollar explode to $1.20 against the US dollar next year? The possibility of the local currency surging higher from the current elevated level is a scenario that is rarely contemplated by most financial analysts and traders. The consensus view is we have to get used to the Aussie trading close to parity or marginally higher for the time being because of the policies being adopted by the major central banks around the world.
However, this is a completely different story to the Aussie moving significantly higher. An appreciation of the local dollar would put the domestic economy and the Reserve Bank of Australia under enormous pressure………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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