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Commodities Briefing 19.Oct 2012

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Geneva plans to eliminate tax breaks for commodity trading houses by 2018, bowing to European Union (EU) pressure at the risk of helping drive away businesses which account for a big part of its financial sector.
Switzerland has come under pressure from the EU to end so-called fiscal holidays, including those which Geneva offers to major trading firms such as Vitol, Mercuria and Gunvor………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold and silver may continue to rebound as improving US economic data stokes inflation-hedge demand while crude oil and copper capitalize on a weaker Dollar. The focus remains on the US economic calendar, where October’s Philadelphia Fed gauge of manufacturing activity and September’s Leading Indicators composite are on tap. Improvements are expected on both fronts.
This may further buoy gold and silver as signs of a pickup in US growth against a backdrop of ultra-loose Federal Reserve monetary policy drive inflation-hedge demand for precious metals………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

It’s probably not going to be too hard to find bearish analysis of China’s economic growth data, but much of this will miss the point. While the 7.4 percent expansion in gross domestic product in the third quarter from a year earlier was lowest since the first quarter of 2009, all this tells us is what we already knew.
The Chinese economy has slowed more than had been hoped for by the rest of the world and by more than the authorities would have wanted………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest banks in commodity trading, has called an end to the oil price super-cycle, reversing years of bullish recommendations, citing a rise in unconventional oil supplies in the United States and Canada.
Goldman has been highest predictor among major oil price forecasters but said on Thursday “long-dated” or five-year forward Brent crude may be anchored at about $90 a barrel. The bank also cut its 2013 Brent forecast to $110 a barrel from $130. Brent trade near $112 on Thursday……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Ice sheets retreating due to global warming often suddenly stabilise for “decades to centuries” no matter that the warming is still going on, scientists of the British Antarctic Survey and partner research institutions have found.
It would seem that current predictions of sea level rises to be expected on a given timescale with a given amount of global warming will need to be revised - downwards. System stability is much higher than previously thought - or hoped by global warming hysterics………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is keen that India, the world’s fourth largest energy-consuming nation, becomes a member of the world’s premier energy monitor.
“They want us to join them. In order to do so, we have to meet certain criteria,” said a senior Indian oil ministry official, requesting anonymity. “There are certain issues raised by the ministry of external affairs. We are anyway working with IEA for strengthening our emergency response mechanism and are trying to imbibe their best practices.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Long term gold price targets get more and more optimistic with some respected analysts seeing $10,000 gold ahead - this may seem unlikely but only a few years ago $1,000 gold seemed out of sight!
A remark on another website by Mark O’Byrne caught my eye - “Longer term, respected analysts are calling for gold prices above $5,000/oz and much higher forecasted prices such as between $5,000 and $10,000 per ounce are not raising eyebrows as much as they have in the past.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

HSBC said it looks for gold prices to hit $1,900 an ounce by year-end. “The Federal Reserve’s third round of asset purchases via quantitative easing (QE3) and other central banks’ policy easing measures are measurably boosting gold-investment demand,” the bank said in an updated forecast.
“For investors who expect QE3 will fail to jump-start economic growth, gold offers an attractive quality asset. For investors concerned about the inflationary impact of QE3, gold appeals as an inflation hedge.” Concerns about U.S. fiscal issues and the likelihood of a weaker U.S. dollar are additional factors supporting gold, the bank said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold held steady above $1,740 an ounce on Friday as the U.S. dollar slipped against other currencies, but investors were likely to take a breather before the outcome of a euro zone summit to solve the region’s debt crisis.
Gold hardly changed at $1,741.69 an ounce by 0030 GMT, still within sight of an 11-month high of $1,795.69 a n ounce struck in early October………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The World Gold Council, has published the Conflict-Free Gold Standard, an industry-led approach to combat the potential misuse of mined gold to fund unlawful armed conflict.
The World Gold Council has developed the Conflict-Free Gold Standard with its member companies, comprising the world’s leading gold mining companies, and with extensive input from governments, civil society and supply chain participants………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Copper traders who a week ago were the most bearish in four months are now the most bullish in a year after economic reports signaled accelerating growth from China to the U.S.
Seventeen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they expect prices to gain next week and four were bearish. A further three were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since October 2011. They were the most negative since June 1 last week. Hedge funds’ bets on a rally are near the biggest in 14 months, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Morgan Stanley has an obligation to explore “different structures” for its commodities trading business because new regulations are limiting the unit’s activities, Chief Executive James Gorman said on Thursday.
The CEO’s comments were the first time Morgan Stanley has publicly hinted at a possible sale of its multibillion-dollar oil and metals trading arm, which has been reported in the media for months………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The last 12 months have been hard on global banks’ commodity businesses across the world and Asia has been no exception. Whether it was deleveraging restricting a bank’s capabilities, or a risk-off attitude among investors and hedging end-users that affected flow volumes, or continued ambivalence towards exotic solutions, revenues were hit.
A clear trend emerged in staffing, as traders abandoned investment banks and moved to trading houses such as Mercuria and Vitol………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

In Tokyo last week the bigwigs of international finance paid close attention to a speech by Ben Bernanke, chairman of America’s Federal Reserve. His speech urged them, in effect, to pay less attention. Many policymakers in emerging markets complain that Fed easing destabilises their economies, contributing to higher inflation and asset prices.
Bernanke pointed out that emerging economies can insulate themselves from his decisions by simply decoupling their currencies from the dollar. It is their habit of shadowing America’s currency, however loosely, that obliges emerging economies to ease monetary policy whenever he does………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 19 October 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Governments and institutions should focus on developing adaption policies to address and mitigate against the negative impact of global warming rather than putting emphasis on carbon trading and capping greenhouse-gas emissions, researchers say.
“At present, governments’ attempts to limit greenhouse-gas emissions through carbon cap-and-trade schemes and to promote renewable and sustainable energy sources are probably too late to arrest the inevitable trend of global warming,” Johannesburg-based Wits University geoscientist Dr Jasper Knight and Dr Stephan Harrison from the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom wrote………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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