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Commodities Briefing 15.Dec 2011

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Fatih BirolCrude has jumped to $100 a barrel from $75 in October amid signs the US economy will likely avoid a recession. High oil prices threaten to worsen a global economic slowdown and crude producers should consider boosting output, the chief economist for the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.
“The current high oil prices have the potential to strangle the economic recovery in many countries,” Fatih Birol said in a speech in Singapore. “I hope that high oil prices don’t slow down Chinese economic growth and the negative effect that would have on the global recovery.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

The world is at risk of “significantly higher” oil prices unless Middle East countries invest more in production, according to the chief economist for the International Energy Agency.“Less oil than today would not be helpful,” the IEA’s Fatih Birol said.
Birol was asked what the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries might decide about output when it meets today in Vienna. “Given the market condition we have and the very fragile economic recovery, any production lower than today’s level will not be good news,” Birol said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

World oil prices may jump to US$150 a barrel, if current investment levels are not maintained in the Middle East and North Africa. This is according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which held its annual world energy outlook seminar in Singapore on Wednesday.
Dr Fatih Birol, the Chief Economist at IEA, told MediaCorp the oil producing countries need to spend US$100 billion per year on upstream investment and production over the next four years to ensure output meets demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed Wednesday to increase its production target for the first time in three years in a move that appeared to signal that Saudi Arabia and Iran had put aside their differences on oil policy for the time being.
The move should have little lasting impact on oil prices since the production target of 30 million barrels a day is closely in line with current output. But the agreement had symbolic value, coming six months after a meeting of OPEC ministers ended in disarray as they failed to reach a consensus on raising production levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Oil tumbled the most since September as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to raise its production ceiling and as Europe struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis.
Futures fell to a five-week low after OPEC decided on an output target of 30 million barrels a day at the group’s meeting in Vienna. Crude extended declines as the euro weakened to less than $1.30 for the first time since January on fear that European crisis will spread………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Oil tumbled more than 4 percent on Wednesday, the biggest drop in over two months as a commodities selloff led to breaches of key technical support.
Worries that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lacked a mechanism to quickly trim production of individual member quotas, after agreeing on a high output ceiling, added to selling pressure. Brent crude dropped below its 300-day moving average and U.S. crude fell under its 200-day moving average………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

“Gold at a 7 weeks low down to 1635. Where is 2000 gold dear gold bugs?” The tweet continues his frequent somewhat intemperate and aggressively dismissive tone with regard to gold itself and people who own it. He has also been intolerant of people and experts who believe that a form of gold standard might be beneficial to the global monetary and financial system.
It is interesting that the tweet did not have dollar symbol or mention USD or dollars. Our expertise is not monetary economics so we will leave that debate to others………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Having reached an all-time high in September this year, the commodity price of gold will go on to even “loftier levels” in 2012, a trading expert has predicted.
Terry Hanlon, president of US-based bullion dealer Dillon Gage Metals, noted that gold prices were inflated this year as traders rushed into gold in the spring during unrest in the Middle East and North Africa and the natural disaster in Japan. The metal reached a record $1,895 an ounce in early September as investors evaluated Standard & Poor’s US credit downgrading. But from there, gold set back again, dropping $100 in one late-September day as nervous investors fled many assets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold is in the bump phase of a seven-year Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern which typically occurs when excessive speculation drives prices up steeply, and is now at a critical juncture which could change the long-term trend of gold. Silver is already in the run phase which does not bode well for its future price. Let me explain.
According to Thomas Bulkowski, the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern consists of three main phases:……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

After admitting earlier that he had liquidated his Gold positions, Dennis Gartman has stated that the gold bull market is dead and quotes the market’s inability to positively react to bullish reports as a reason.
In his latest newsletter, Gartman states that he is seeing “the beginnings of a real bear market, and the death of a bull”. As for the reason for his belief, he explains that China has been aggressively buying gold for the past weeks. In such a situation, prices should have surged………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Thinking about how to sell your gold as part of buying it? Investors who prefer to own physical gold they can see and touch have many ways to achieve that comfort level, says George Avalos at Hard Assets Investor.
But when you stack up the choices, Gold Bullion appears to have the edge over Gold Coins for investors who also think about selling as much as acquiring………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped over 100 points on Wednesday but the sharpest decliners in exchange traded funds tracked gold and commodities, while the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen.
Gold futures lost about $90 an ounce as the precious metal dropped below $1,600 an ounce and its 200-day moving average………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Emerging market currencies were mostly weaker against the dollar, but held their own against the euro on Wednesday. Worries about the toll that Europe’s troubles would have on the rest of the world escalated as German Chancellor Angela Merkel restated her opposition to common euro-zone bonds and expanding the size of the bailout funds.
Earlier in the day, Italy had to pay investors a hefty premium to sell its five-year bonds. The euro slipped below $1.30, and has remained there for most of the day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Investors are betting the euro’s latest dive is for real. For most of the year, the euro has stayed above $1.30, even after repeated selloffs, as the two-year-old debt crisis afflicting Europe threatened to tear apart the currency zone.
That has frustrated hedge funds who suffered losses after repeatedly betting the euro would head to $1.25 or lower. Many funds exited negative bets in late October, when the currency rallied back from just above $1.30………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Emission reduction certificate prices at record lows, reflect question marks on the climate change policy. To the surprise of the carbon trading market, prices of carbon emission reduction (CER) certificates traded on the Intercontinental Exchange have been sliding even after last week’s global deal on future emission reduction.
CER prices closed at a then all-time low on Friday, when the Durban talks were leading to uncertainty on a deal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Some emission offsets from Russia, as well as those from large hydropower and coal projects, may be banned by regulators of the European Union carbon market, Sindicatum Sustainable Resources Group said.
Certain projects approved by nations including Russia and Ukraine under the Joint Implementation program of the Kyoto Protocol could be barred by the EU under proposals made as soon as early next year, Gareth Phillips, chief climate change officer at the Singapore-based developer of carbon offset credits, said Wednesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

While discussions at this year’s UN climate negotiations in Durban, South Africa were still underway, some countries also made moves outside of the multilateral setting in an attempt to strengthen international climate change co-operation. Australia and New Zealand revealed plans last week to link their emissions trading systems as soon as 2015, once Australia has moved from a fixed carbon tax to a flexible price mechanism.
Australia’s Clean Energy Bill overcame its final hurdle last month, with the Senate passing the law to introduce a carbon tax in July 2012……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Persistent questions about the ability of European leaders to prevent a breakup of the euro are taking a hefty toll on the commodities that keep industries churning out products and help feed the world.
Commodity prices dropped across the board Wednesday. Oil fell 5.2 percent. Gold fell to a level not seen since July, and corn ended the day at the lowest price in about a year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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