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Commodities Briefing 21.Nov 2011

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Ron LawsonHedge funds cut bullish commodity bets by the most in seven weeks on mounting concern that Europe’s debt crisis will restrain global economic growth and demand for raw materials.
Money managers reduced combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 10 percent to 754,558 contracts in the week ended Nov. 15, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Commodity prices continued to move sharply lower posting their biggest losses in almost two months on more indications that Europe’s debt crisis is spreading beyond Greece and Italy.
During the week, the sharp rise in the premium of French and Spanish bonds over German bonds sent prices of other asset classes sharply lower………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Has the spiralling increase in the price of gold and silver lured the common man to look at investing or trading in the commodities market? From the queries raised this morning at a seminar, Growing Wealth through Commodities, hosted by Angel Broking, it appears so.
The hall was packed, and the attendees comprised traders, investors – individual and corporate, including quite a few women………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

As is the case across all asset classes, sentiment in the commodity markets hinges upon the belief, or lack thereof, in the ability of politicians and policy makers to find a solution to the European debt crisis. With no sign of a meaningful, long-term cure for Europe’s ills on the cards, cyclical commodities, like industrial metals and energy, suffered a broad downturn over the last quarter, while safe haven flows have driven a bullish trend in precious metals.
As the denominating currency of commodities, dollar strength has taken the edge off commodity gains. With the Swiss National Bank defending its currency and the constant threat of a major yen intervention by the Bank of Japan, haven flows into the dollar should drive its bullish run through 2012………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Soaring prices of agricultural goods, precious and base metals, and oil and gas are spawning new commodity exchanges across Asia-Pacific.
While Chicago, New York and London remain the major global hubs, new exchanges are being designed to meet the rapid growth of trading activity in Asia, where 60% of the world’s population resides………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

The global oil market looks balanced, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi indicated on Sunday, while the secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said some producers need to cut back as Libyan output rebounds.
Speaking at the same conference in the Saudi capital with less than a month to go before OPEC meets, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) reiterated the major consumer group’s concern that stubbornly high oil prices and tight supplies could harm fragile global economic growth………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

OPEC’s December meeting may lack the discord of its last gathering, according to its secretary- general, as the 12-nation group weighs signs of declining growth in demand for oil.
“December will be a very comfortable meeting,” Abdalla el-Badri told reporters in Riyadh yesterday. On whether the group will leave oil output quotas unchanged, he said, “Yes, well I don’t know, ministers will decide, but you will not see the friction that you saw last time.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to discuss output allocations before June next year and its December meeting is likely to see no arguments or friction, the group’s secretary general said Monday.
“I think production allocations may be discussed in June next year because Libya is [absent] now,” Abdalla Salem El-Badri said told reporters in Riyadh………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Current oil prices are high and the crude markets are tight, and if prices continue at current level they will have an impact on emerging markets, International Energy Agency Executive Director, Maria van der Hoeven, told reporters in Riyadh.
“Oil prices are still quite high and what we’ve said before that is if oil prices are high at this level for a longer period it will have an impact on economic recovery, especially for developing countries,” she said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Any disruptions to Iran’s oil exports would create “severe problems” for the global crude market, Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi said.
Iran will seek a “fair price” for crude when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets next on Dec. 14, Qasemi said, adding that the global market for crude does not face a shortage………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Oil prices have reached a new base of $100 per barrel and may touch $200 in the medium-to-long term, according to Bank Sarasin.
“I have always been a believer that oil prices have a found a new base at $100. Even if we (are to) go into recession, it won’t drop below $70 or $80,” Bank Sarasin chief investment officer Burkhard Varnholt, said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

In recent days and weeks, in the face of Europe’s seemingly intractable economic troubles – the continent’s worst crisis since World War II, according to German Chancellor Angela Merkel – gold has had difficulty moving higher.
Many market participants are wondering why the metal is not responding more positively to Europe’s never-ending sovereign debt crisis and other worrisome economic and political developments around the world………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Because the Fed continues to pour money in to the economy, it’s difficult to say for certain when Gold will make a dramatic move. The historical record indicates that a surge in money growth has its peak effect on economic activity about 9 to 18 months later. Add another 12 months or so for the peak effect on consumer price inflation.
In other words, the Federal Reserve is always driving with a loose steering wheel. Most of the experience behind those numbers is with relatively tame ups and downs in the business cycle – not the kind of financial violence we’ve been seeing over the last several years – which adds another variable………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Whether it’s the average Indian woman’s craving for gold or the Indian government’s investment in the yellow metal, both have paid off with a vengeance in the days of soaring gold prices.
Today, if those glittering pieces of jewellery in family lockers have become economic anchors for middle-class families, the nation’s gold portfolio over the last 15 years too has quadrupled in worth……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Chinese demand for Gold jewellery surpassed that of India — the world’s largest consumer of bullion — for the first time since early 2009, reported the World Gold Council (WGC), an industry group, in its quarterly Gold Demand Trends.
Acording to WGC, Chinese gold jewellery demand in third quarter 2011 rose 13% to 131.0 tons while Indian demand declined 26% to 125.3 tons from 168.4 tons. As a result, China was the largest single market for jewellery demand, accounting for 28% of global jewellery demand. In value term this means an increase of 48% to RMB 46.0 bn………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

St. Barbara Ltd., an Australian gold producer, said it is focused on reducing costs amid forecasts for the price of the metal to “remain strong.”
“I think the price, and the consensus seems to be that the price, is going to remain strong for some time,” St. Barbara Chief Executive Officer Tim Lehany said in an interview on the Australian Broadcasting Corp.’s “Inside Business” program today. “There will be a lot of short-term volatility.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

COMEX prices have edged lower across the complex as the dollar has strengthened, equity markets diverged and fears of European contagion and uncertainty spreading to the world economy and financial markets, said Barclays Capital in a research note.
Gold prices slipped below $1750/oz as physical demand has softened after the initial flurry in September while investment interest has gained traction with ETP flows remaining positive………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

The prices of silver and gold should continue rising as economic uncertainty persists, according to the chief executive of Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp , the biggest U.S. silver miner.
“As long as we see things like the EU (Euro zone currency turmoil) and as long as we run the kind of deficits here — neither of which we see being cleaned up in the short term — those two things will continue to be positive backdrops for gold and silver,” Mitchell Krebs said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Investments in precious metals and precious metals-based instruments have gained momentum over the last few weeks due to the ongoing uncertainty in the European markets. There is a lot of fresh money flowing into instruments based on precious metals - gold, silver and platinum.
The outlook for precious metals is good for the short to medium terms due to the uncertainty in the global economy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Recent data has supported the view that China is engineering a soft landing. But uncertainty over Europe and a weakening picture for Chinese export demand are denting the confidence of local consumers and the potential for contagion to spread from Europe is the biggest downside risk to base metals prices, said Barclays Capital in a briefing.
The markets are already discounting a bearish European scenario and bank would not be surprised to see a contraction in European metals demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

After China imposed limits on rare earth exports, prices surged on the severe reduction in supply. However, now industries are cutting back on rare earths, sending prices and the exchange traded fund that tracks rare earth miners much lower.
Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF is down about 33% over the past six months and is one of the worst-performing ETFs during the period………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 21 November 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Governments of the world’s richest countries have given up on forging a new treaty on climate change to take effect this decade, with potentially disastrous consequences for the environment through global warming.
Ahead of critical talks starting next week, most of the world’s leading economies now privately admit that no new global climate agreement will be reached before 2016 at the earliest, and that even if it were negotiated by then, they would stipulate it could not come into force until 2020………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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