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Commodities Briefing 31.May 2011

Posted on 31 May 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Fatih BirolEnergy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emission reached a record high in 2010, up by five% from the last record in 2008, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
Emissions in 2010 are estimated to have climbed to a record 30.6 Gigatonnes (Gt). The last record in 2008 reported CO2 emission of 29.3 Gt, which followed by a dip in 2009 due to the global recession, Xinhua said quoting the energy agency……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 31 May 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Barbara StockingThe prices of staple foods will more than double in 20 years unless world leaders take action to reform the global food system, Oxfam has warned. By 2030, the average cost of key crops will increase by between 120% and 180%, the charity forecasts.
Half of that increase will be caused by climate change, Oxfam predicts, in its report Growing a Better Future……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Global demand for major grains, such as maize, rice, and wheat, is projected to increase by nearly 48 per cent from 2000-2025 and by 70 per cent between 2000 and 2050, according to research presented by Mark Rosegrant, who delivered the Agric Economic Forum Keynote during the 2011 Agric Innovation Showcase held in St. Louis.
Rosegrant, Director of Environment and Production Technology at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) added that per capita meat consumption will also increase in many developing regions of the world and it will more than double in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2000-2050, leading to a doubling of total meat consumption by 2050……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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World’s largest forex reserves holder, China should use its huge foreign exchange reserves to expand investment in the agricultural sector overseas, according to a researcher with country’s Research Center For Rural Economy.
In an essay published in the state-owned Farmer’s Daily, Chen Jie said this will help to increase domestic market supply. China’s foreign exchange reserves to $3.04 trillion as of the end of March, with a substantial portion invested in U.S. Treasurys……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Global commodity prices are cooling down for the summer after soaring to near-record highs in April, Scotiabank says in its monthly commodity price index.
The index climbed 6.1 per cent in April, led higher by oil, gas and coking coal but jitters over a mild slowdown in Chinese growth coupled with anxiety over the impact higher energy and food prices will have on consumer spending, led to a steep but short pullback in May, Scotiabank commodities analyst Patricia Mohr said………………………………………Full Article: Source

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Scotiabank predicted Monday that commodity prices will continue to trade close to current levels for the summer before heading higher after September. The bank’s Commodity Price Index soared by 6.1 per cent between March and April to a level just 13.4 per cent below its record high in July 2008. But that level likely corrected sharply in May, the bank said.
The index reached 233.6 in April. With a base of 100 in 1997, that means commodity prices are 2.3 times higher than 14 years ago……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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The Bovespa stock index fell, adding to its third monthly decline this year, as commodities dropped and a report showed lending in Brazil expanded in April, spurring speculation that policy makers haven’t done enough to curb inflation.
Tam SA dropped after Bank of America Corp. said in a research note that the shares may decline 40 percent should its planned acquisition by Lan Airlines not be approved by Chilean antitrust authorities. Petroleo Brasileiro SA and Vale SA followed crude and metal prices lower……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Global commodities guru and ace investor Jim Rogers says that the ongoing commodities bull run may encounter setbacks. However, he said that the bullish run in global commodities sector will continue till 2020.
Speaking at the BIR Ferrous Division plenary meeting in Singapore, Rogers said that ‘recyclers will be very rich’ as 3bn people in the world are increasing their consumption at a time when supply of a range of commodities is under duress……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Opec crude oil output is expected to rise in May as extra oil from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Iraq counters a further decline in Libyan supply.
Any extra supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is likely to be welcomed by consumer nations concerned about the impact of oil prices well above $100 a barrel on economic growth and inflation……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is acting to balance the global market and will continue to do so, according to Iran’s OPEC Gov. Mohammad Ali Khatibi. “OPEC is trying to compensate part of the shortage of supply of crude and create a balance in the market and in the future OPEC will continue to do its onerous duty which is to create balance in the market,” said Khatibi.
He said he expected global oil demand to rise to 88.9 million b/d by yearend and demand for OPEC crude to rise to 29.8 million b/d by yearend from 29.7 million b/d in the first quarter……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Germany’s coalition government agreed early Monday to shut down all the country’s nuclear power plants by 2022, the environment minister said, making it the first major industrialized nation in the last quarter century to announce plans to go nuclear-free.
The country’s seven oldest reactors already taken off the grid pending safety inspections following the catastrophe at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant in March will remain offline permanently, Norbert Roettgen added. The country has 17 reactors total……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Top coal consumer China should see import demand more than double in the next four years and India will be close behind as both hoover up supplies on international markets to feed rapidly growing power industries, industry executives said on Monday.
China’s thermal coal imports could rise to 200 million tonnes in 2015 from around 90 million tonnes in 2011, Neil Dhar, executive vice president of trading house Noble Group, told the Coaltrans Asia conference……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Palladium’s biggest shortage in three decades means this year’s worst-performing precious metal may rebound as growth spurs record car sales and prompts Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to say the commodities bull market is intact.
The 1.6 million-ounce deficit seen by Standard Bank Plc explains why prices for the metal used in catalytic converters will rise 25 percent by Dec. 31, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 24 analysts and traders……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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The global zinc surplus may decline after an earthquake and tsunami slashed metal output and sales by major Japanese smelters.
Toho Zinc Co., Japan’s third-biggest zinc producer, will sell 9.4 percent less this fiscal year, Kunio Yamamiya, Toho Zinc’s representative senior managing director, said in an interview. The company joins Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co., the country’s top producer, in reducing output. ………………………………………Full Article: Source

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While gold is clearly a monetary asset and will, if anything, extend its influence as the only non-fiat currency (especially following developments in Europe last week), it is clear that in recent weeks it has been moving more closely in line with the rest of the commodities sector than with currencies or other financial instruments.
Correlation analysis however shows that the relationship with the $:€ rate is tightening, while that with the G6-trade-weighted rate appears to be relatively static. The price in euros, meanwhile, has been tightening its relationship with credit default instruments as concerns over European debt have intensified once more……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 31 May 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

One of the contributors to the low gold prices of the 1970s was substantial hedging of forward output by mining companies, either as corporate policy, or at the insistence of lending institutions who wished to protect their positions should the price fall further.
Conversely, a contributor to the rise in gold prices over the past few years has been very substantial de-hedging by, in particular, the gold majors, which has effectively soaked up some gold demand, as belief grew that the run up in the gold price had much further to go. Indeed, most gold mining companies have now reduced their gold hedge positions to zero, or close to it……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Major precious metals reserech consultant firm GFMS said Gold’s decade-long price rally could take the metal above $1,600 an ounce by the end of the year. GFMS also said world’s largest gold bar and coin consumer China could import more gold this year.
According to Philip Kalpwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, Chinese demand for gold bars and coins as private investments could push bullion imports above 400 tons in 2011……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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According to prominent investor and commodities advocate, Jim Rogers, oil prices are projected to continue increasing, given the depletion of worldwide reserves. However, the expert maintains that silver is expected to drift downward, as its initial ascent was too much, too fast.
Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings and Belland Interests, Inc as well as the co-founder of Quantum Fund (along with George Soros), has boldly stated that crude oil prices will undeniably rise in the next ten years because “there is no oil.”………………………………………Full Article: Source

Posted on 31 May 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Silver appears to have lost its shine for most investors in India, with many preferring to transfer funds from the white metal to the dollar and even the equities market.
Traders and analysts say that most investors are a bit skittish because of the metal’s wild price swings and are wary of global concerns that could dull its shine……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 31 May 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Investing in agriculture became easier last week. Another exchange traded fund with a twist was launched in the sector. ETFs in the arena tend to have interesting and relevant trading symbols: MOO, COW, and CROP, for instance. The most recent entry is no exception: SOIL.
The Global X Fertilizer/Potash ETF tracks the performance of a diversified portfolio of 29 global equities that produce, distribute and sell fertilizer products……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 31 May 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

On Thursday, May 26, Global X launched the first exchange-traded fund that holds companies in the fertilizer and potash industries. The new fund is the latest bet by an ETF provider on rapidly rising global-food demand. In a release, Global X noted that grain yields in India are less than half of those in the United States, which largely is the result of improper fertilization.
And Global X pointed out that China and India’s rapidly growing agricultural industries alone account for more than 40% of world fertilizer use, with emerging markets in Asia and Latin America accounting for almost two thirds of global consumption of fertilizer……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 31 May 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Trade volumes in spot and forward markets in China’s largest gold bourse ,the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) surged, thanks to country’s investment frenzy in the metal.
According to Wang Zhe, SGE president, total gold traded on the exchange rose 28.5 percent from a year ago to 6,051.5 tons in 2010, while the total turnover jumped 57 percent……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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