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Commodities Briefing 01.Mar 2011

Posted on 01 March 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Paul MorrisFrom Reuters: Australia on Tuesday forecast the global commodities boom is set to roll on for another two years while miners and farmers work to catch up with demand, and said prices are likely to remain strong even further out.
The upbeat assessment is at odds with concerns in markets as production grows, China tries to cool its economy and prices lose some momentum — although iron ore, coking coal, copper and gold remain around all-time highs, and wheat and crude oil at around two-year highs……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 01 March 2011 by VRS |  Email |Print

Jim RogersFrom Businessinsider.com: Agricultural prices are not in a bubble. That’s according to commodity king Jim Rogers who gave an interview to CNBC this morning, reiterating his firm belief that the bull market in commodities is poised to continue and only strengthen over time.
“The best sector that I know in the world economy is going to continue to be commodities,” Rogers said Monday. “We have huge shortages of everything developing. The facts are we are running out of known reserves of everything and shortages are going to get worse,” he added……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Torontosun.com: Mounting tensions in the oil-rich Middle East and bad crop-growing weather are pushing up global commodity prices. That could be good news for Canadian exports, but bad news for consumers at the checkout counter.
The Scotiabank Commodity Price Index, which measures price trends for 32 of Canada’s major exports, rose for the seventh straight month in January, by 2.7%……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Canada.com: A broad-based rally in commodity prices - with gains in three out of four areas - helped Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index post its seventh consecutive monthly gain in January.
The index, which measures price trends for 32 of Canada’s major exports, advanced by 2.7 per cent month-over-month in January. It currently stands at 47. 4 per cent above its cyclical low in April 2009, and is at its highest level since September 2008……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Bloomberg: Metals, crops and fuel beat stocks, bonds and the dollar for a third straight month, the longest stretch since June 2008, as inflation lifted cotton and cocoa and investors speculated violence in the Middle East and northern Africa will restrain energy supplies.
The S&P GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities gained 3.8 percent in February and rose for a sixth consecutive month, the longest streak since 2004, data compiled by Bloomberg show……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From WSJ: U.S. economic growth should pick up this year as consumer and businesses spend more and government stimulus continues, a panel of forecasters said in a survey conducted when oil prices started to move higher.
The 47 economists surveyed in the National Association for Business Economics report between Jan. 25 and Feb. 9 predicted U.S. gross domestic product would expand by an annual 3.6% in the final quarter of 2011. That is up from a 3.0% growth rate NABE predicted in November and compares with a 2.8% GDP rise at the end of 2010……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Procurementleaders.com: The global oil and gas industry is being hit by record levels of merger and acquisition activity (M&A), according to market watchers. PLS, with international partner Derrick Petroleum Services and further analysis from Rystad Energy, reports that, for 2010, M&A activity in the sector reached a record $211bn.
That volume was up 42% from 2009 and 85% higher than a troubled 2008, when just $114bn in deals were reported worldwide……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From WSJ: The economy is unlikely to mount strong enough growth to change the path of monetary policy over coming months, although rising commodity prices argue for increased inflation vigilance, a top Federal Reserve official said Monday.
“The economic outlook has improved considerably,” and “a wide range of indicators show a broadening and strengthening of demand and production,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Bloomberg: Commodity futures trading volume in China dropped 21 percent in the first two months of this year, led by contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, according to data provided by the China Futures Association.
Total volume on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the Shanghai bourse reached 39.68 million lots in January and February, compared with 50.53 million lots a year earlier……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Financialexpress.com: Not swayed by today’s challenge of inflation, the FM has presented us with a soundly growth-oriented budget. This Budget will facilitate higher capacity creation through increased investments and ensure taming inflationary pressures through strong supply-side augmentation measures.
Proposals to bolster distribution and marketing systems are expected to address supply-side concerns, which are the principal contributor to the current food inflation……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Scoop.co.nz: Prices for New Zealand-produced raw materials extended their gains for a sixth month, hitting a new record, according to the ANZ Commodity Price Index. The index climbed 2.7% to 321.8 last month, and surged 21% in the past six months, as the price of 13 raw materials increased.
Skins led gainers, rising 13%, while milk powder, sawn timber and venison gained 5%. Aluminium and bitter prices rose 3%, while wool, casein, cheese, wood pulp and seafood prices rose 1% or less……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From WSJ: Commodities prices face increased volatility due to near-term macroeconomic concerns, but the long-term demand outlook remains bright, several of the U.K.’s largest globally diversified miners said Monday.
Near-term economic fundamentals continue to improve, evidenced by “increasingly positive developed market data [and]…strong emerging market growth,” according to Alex Vanselow, chief financial officer of Anglo-Australian miner BHP Billiton Ltd……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Businessweek.com: Prices are rising for metals used in manufacturing as new reports offer more signs of an improving U.S. economy. Silver, palladium, platinum and copper all settled higher Monday.
The gains are based on a Commerce Department report that says consumer incomes rose last month by the largest amount in nearly two years, thanks partly to a tax cut. However Americans are still being careful about their spending……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Resourceinvestor.com: Saturday’s Wall Street Journal had an article titled “External Surpluses Root Cause of China’s Inflation Problem.” It is a report of a talk given Friday by Mr. Yi Gang, vice-governor of the People’s Bank of China.
The talk included the following comments: “In addition to boosting the flexibility of the yuan exchange rate, China also should adjust resource prices to address imbalances,” he said, “as many resources are still traded in China at below their natural prices……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Australian: Iron ore exports will climb another 12 per cent next financial year, to a record $63.1b, the nation’s chief commodities forecaster says. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics and Sciences predicts the increase in its annual outlook of the mining and and farm sectors released.
Exports of metallurgical coal, for steel production, are tipped to increase another 22 per cent, to $41.9b, thermal coal will rise 28 per cent to $19.3b and gold exports are tipped to increase 12 per cent to $16.8b……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Resourceinvestor.com: The gold bull is now on the verge of launching the most spectacular up leg of this 10-year bull market. This spring we should see the final parabolic rally of the massive C-wave advance that began in April `09 with a test of the 1980 high at $860.
First off let me explain gold’s four wave pattern (and no it has nothing to do with Elliot wave)……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Kitco News: Worries about spreading unrest in the Middle East after protests in Libya encouraged speculators to seek safe-haven in gold futures and options, according to U.S. government data released Friday.
Net-long positions for funds increased in both the legacy and disaggregated weekly commitment of traders reports released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week ended Feb. 22……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Commodity Online: India’s bullion industry traders have cried foul over a 1% excise duty that the government announced on gold, silver and other precious metals in the annual budget presented in the parliament on Monday.
Presenting the annual budget in the Parliament, India’s Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee proposed 1% central excise duty to be imposed on jewellery and articles of gold, silver and precious metals sold under a brand name……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Reuters: A sustained period of higher oil prices would significantly affect developing economies but is unlikely to derail their strong recovery since the financial crisis, a senior World bank official said on Monday.
Andrew Burns, the World Bank’s manager of global economics, said a surge in the oil price could dent economic growth in developing countries by somewhere between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points if it remained high for a year or longer……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Reuters: Oil prices turned lower on Monday as reassurances from Saudi Arabia that extra supply needs had been met soothed market fears over the spread of protests to oil-producer Oman.
Violent uprisings in OPEC member Libya dramatically reduced exports from North Africa, but Saudi Aramco CEO Khalid al-Falih told reporters on Monday the shortfall had been made up……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Hardassetsinvestor.com: As Bespoke Investments reported last week, the ratio of oil prices to natural gas prices has never been this high. Crude currently flirts with the magic $100/barrel mark, trading early Monday morning at $97.23 per barrel, while natural gas presently languishes at barely over $4.07 per mm cubic feet.
As Bespoke asks, “The big question … is why more hasn’t been done to exploit the discrepancy.”………………………………………Full Article: Source

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From Sfgate.com: Commodities are all the rage these days as hardly a day goes by without oil or one of the precious metals getting a fair amount of press. This trend has amplified the attention paid by investors to ETFs that offer exposure to commodities of all stripes.
Even with that, soaring commodities prices today have kept talk about seasonality to a minimum. It’s almost as though the market has said “forget tomorrow and live in the moment.”………………………………………Full Article: Source

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From Financialadvisormagazine.com: Gold-mining companies will have to improve their performance and boost their dividends to compete with exchange-traded funds for investor interest, said BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager.
“Gold companies have to change their mentality, stop being lazy, stop resting on their laurels and realize they have to perform,” Catherine Raw, who co-manages BlackRock’s $9.2 billion World Gold Fund and the company’s flagship $17 billion World Mining Fund with Evy Hambro, said……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From FT Alphaville: The UK financial regulator the FSA appears (finally) to be on to the complexity issue that has been affecting the ETF industry for a long while now.
From the FSA’s ‘Retail Conduct Risk Outlook 2011″ out on Monday — emphasis FT Alphaville’s:………………………………………Full Article: Source

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From Seekingalpha.com: According to reports on CNBC and other media venues, Glencore, the world’s largest commodities trader, is considering an initial public offering. The timing for such an offering couldn’t be better with commodity and energy prices at or pushing toward all time highs.
Because of aggressive global monetary policy and promising global demand, commodities were some of the top performers in 2010. While many investment funds are lining up with excitement, investors may want to approach with caution……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Risk.net: New Hampshire House votes to leave RGGI, New Jersey could follow; change in states’ attitudes to cap-and-trade “not surprising”.
A shadow has been cast over the future of North America’s first mandatory carbon trading scheme, in spite of experts’ previous belief that state cap-and-trade schemes would fill the vacuum left by the lack of a federal initiative……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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