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Commodities Briefing 15.Dec 2009

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: The following is a round up of key 2010 commodity price forecasts from major commercial and investment banks.
JP Morgan - Weak refinery demand, inventory reduction keep pressure on prices, with $72/barrel seen for Q1. But $85 is predicted for Q4 based on economic growth, falling inventories and weak dollar……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Agrimoney.com: Commodity prices look poised for further gains in 2010, spurred by global economic growth and a “classic inflationary set-up” presented by America’s loose interest rate policy, a leading analyst has said.

This year’s rally, which sent the Continuous Commodity Index up more than 30% at its peak in October, reflected the rejection of doomsday scenarios fostered by the economic crisis……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Theglobeandmail.com: It’s easy to say gold is a bubble. It’s up more than 26 cent in the past six months, so it has to be right? Maybe, but I doubt it, for both obvious and less-obvious reasons. Gold isn’t as attractive as it was when no one wanted to own it a few years ago.
Back then it was a no-brainer, trading for less than the marginal production cost. Today, there’s hot money in bullion, making it susceptible to sharp corrections. But the rally has legs nonetheless……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Hardassetsinvestor.com: Just as sailors and aviators rely upon thermometers, barometers and other gauges to plot their courses, investors use indicators of their own to map the economic landscape, among them the gold/oil ratio.

When taken separately, oil and gold can tip you to certain goings-on in the economy: Oil tends to become more expensive when gross domestic product is on the rise, and gold turns bullish when the greenback falters……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: High gold price is severely impacting the import of the yellow metal to India, one of the largest bullion markets in the world. Gold imports by India that used to be around 700-800 tonnes every year since 1998 have drastically come down by half.

Gold imports have plunged to the lowest mark in 2009. According to the latest statistics from the Bombay Bullion Association, gold imports by India in 2009 will stand around 370 tonnes, the lowest in one decade……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: Despite the recent setback in the gold price, the principal drivers of gold’s recent strength remain in play and don’t be surprised to see $1,500 gold next year.
We have consistently warned (and continue to do so) that gold’s advance would be marked by high volatility and occasional sharp reversals that would lead some to believe the long bull market in gold has ended - and we will continue to hold this view even if the metal falls back yet another $100 an ounce……………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Resourceinvestor.com: Central banks – the long-time nemesis of the gold sector – are doing an about-face to become its biggest supporters. And this quantum shift promises to gather momentum in 2010 with the prospect of a new era of net buying continuing to fuel robust demand for bullion.

So say several of the world’s most prominent gold fund managers and investment industry gurus. They include John Embry, a renowned, long-time gold advocate and the chief investment strategist at Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management, which runs the Sprott Gold and Precious Metals Fund……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Resourceinvestor.com: The Hennessee Group LLC, an adviser to hedge fund investors, predicted silver would outperform gold in early 2009 and advised clients to accumulate positions in the precious metal as it appeared underpriced relative to gold.
Charles Gradante, Co-Founder of the Hennessee Group, stated “Despite the gains in 2009, we continue to believe both gold and silver serve as safe haven investments, particularly as a hedge against the longer-term risk of hyper-inflation.”………………………………Full Article: Source

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From Pbs.org: Without rare earth, Copenhagen means nothing. You buy a Prius hybrid car and think you’re saving the planet. But each motor contains a kilo of neodymium and each battery more than 10 kilos of lanthanum, rare earth elements from China.
Green campaigners love wind turbines, but the permanent magnets used to manufacture a 3-megawatt turbine contain some two tons of rare earth……………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Commodityonline.com: Where on earth are the maximum number of investment seminars and summits held on precious metals? You may have guessed it right.
Yes, undoubtedly, it is in Beijing, Shanghai and other Chinese cities that bullion and precious metals investors and analysts are gathering these days to interact on the big potential that China has for the global metals market……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.co.za: The London-based VM Group’s latest monthly analysis of the global Metals and plastics sectors, prepared for BNP Paribas/Fortis Bank, takes a pretty positive view of the year ahead for most metals - that is if you’re a producer or investor rather than a consumer!
Of course China is the key to all this as although there may be signs of a pick-up in OECD economies, and thus metals demand , as the year continues but, as they put it it is “China’s rapacious appetite for base metals has shaped this market throughout 2009″……………………………….Full Article: Source

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From AFP: World oil prices fell on Monday, with New York crude briefly ducking under 69 dollars per barrel, as the market came under pressure from US demand concerns, analysts said.

New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for January, lost 36 cents to 69.51 dollars a barrel. It earlier fell to 68.59 dollars — the lowest point since October 5……………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Energyandcapital.com: Although demand is weak, don’t make the mistake of thinking that oil will be replaced anytime soon. I love to hear about renewables growing at a record pace, but the sobering fact is that fossil fuels make up an overwhelming share of global energy.
Until I see renewables make a serious dent, I’ll stick with other, more realistic options……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Telegraph: Almost three-quarters of the money spent on Britain and Europe’s energy sectors by 2030 will need to go towards renewable power, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Dr Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA, said that 72p in every pound of new investment ought to be spent on clean energy, such as wind and solar, to hit current targets on global warming. The remaining 28p would be spent on nuclear and fossil fuels……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: The EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme is starting to influence power companies’ investment decisions toward cleaner energy production, a survey by research group New Energy Finance shows.

“With the EU ETS starting to affect not just operating schedules but the plant mix itself in the European power sector we would expect carbon emissions to start to fall over the next 5-10 years,” New Energy Finance said in its report……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Irishtimes.com: The European Union has probably lost at least €5 billion to VAT fraud related to carbon trading and there is a risk that the criminals will now shift their attention to Europe’s electricity and gas markets, according to Europol, the EU’s law-enforcement operation.

The news will further embarrass EU governments negotiating in Copenhagen and trying to persuade other countries to sign up to carbon trading as a way of reducing emissions……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Businessgreen.com: Poll of leading energy firms finds that EU emissions trading scheme is driving investment in low-carbon technologies
The European Union’s flagship emissions trading scheme (ETS) is starting to inform the way energy firms make investment decisions, leading to increased spending on low-carbon generation technologies……………………………….Full Article: Source

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From Zawya Dow Jones: Gulf states will aim to decide by 2010 on whether to peg a planned unified currency to a basket, the U.S. dollar, or another single currency, Kuwait’s Finance Minister told Zawya Dow Jones in an interview.

“There’s work to be done to decide whether or not it [the unified currency] will be connected to a single currency or basket,” Mustafa Al Shimali, the Kuwait Finance Minister told Zawya Dow Jones in an interview Monday. “We hope a decision will be taken by 2010.”………………………………Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Theajmonline.com.au: Earnings from energy and minerals exports are forecast to fall by 20 per cent to close to $129 billion in 2009-10, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics (ABARE).
“The combined effect of lower bulk commodity contract prices, including for coal and iron ore, and an assumed stronger Australian dollar is expected to more than offset the positive effect on earnings of forecast higher export volumes in 2009-10,” said Dr Terry Sheales, deputy executive director, ABARE……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Kiplinger.com: It was only a matter of time. Exchange-traded funds, which offer products for almost every conceivable investment niche, are now going after hedge funds.
You may consider this welcome news if you don’t have the big bucks normally required to invest in hedge funds and don’t want to pay their outrageous fees……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Indiatimes.com: Commodity futures market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) may stipulate uniform net worth criteria for members trading on behalf of clients and carrying out proprietary trades across national-level commodity bourses.
Brokers and exchange officials stress the importance of putting in place a benchmark in terms of net worth — share capital plus free reserves — for those who provide broking services as these entities are perceived to be extended arms of the bourses and any default by a member carries potential reputation risk for the latter……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mondovisione.com: European Commodity Clearing AG (ECC) successfully launched clearing and settlement of transactions in natural gas concluded on the CEGH Gas Exchange of the Vienna Stock Exchange.

Trading on the CEGH Gas Exchange is carried out via the systems of the Vienna Stock Exchange and physical settlement is provided on the basis of exchange trading via the CEGH distribution points……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Dailytimes.com.pk: The National Commodity Exchange Limited (NCEL) launched the first Commodity Index in the country, chairman NCEL Sameer Ahmad said Monday.

“The NCEL Commodity Index based on the composition of five commodities available for trading on NCEL covering palm olien, gold, silver, crude oil and Irri-6 Rice,” he added……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Agrimoney.com: Soybeans took over from corn as the leader of the Chicago pack, and softs did even better, as traders looked beyond the prospect of floppy pre-Christmas trading to, fingers crossed, fund buying in January.

“There will be continued support [for soybeans] in this market as long as exports remain good to China,” Allendale, the US broker, said in comments ahead of the opening……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Corn rose for a third straight session as a declining dollar increased investor demand for the grain along with other commodities traded in the U.S. currency.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value against six major currencies, fell for the first time in three sessions, prompting some investors to buy commodities……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 15 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Forbes: Sugar hit record highs Monday and other crops such as soybeans, wheat and corn surged too on demand expectations that helped commodities see their strongest session in three days, despite weaker oil prices.
The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index , a basket of 19 commodities, settled up one percent for its strongest finish since Dec 8. The index hit two-month lows last week after a run-up in the dollar sparked a selloff in oil, which accounts for nearly a quarter of the CRB’s weighting……………………………….Full Article: Source

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