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Commodities Briefing 14.Dec 2009

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Smh.com.au: Falling production in commodities from rice to milk is bad news for just about everyone except investors. Rice may surge 63 per cent to $US1,038 a metric ton from $US638 on Philippine imports and a shortage in India, a Bloomberg survey of importers, exporters and analysts showed.
The US government says nonfat dry milk may jump 39 per cent next year, and JPMorgan Chase forecasts a 25 per cent gain for sugar……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Marketoracle.co.uk: “If you can tell me something else where the fundamentals are so attractive…I’d be happy to put my money there, but I don’t know of any other place” – Jim Rogers on Agriculture. It sure seems like gold and oil have stolen the limelight when it comes to commodities lately.

I wonder though, if we are not overlooking an even greater opportunity to make money and hedge against future inflation in the longer run……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second- biggest lender, said demand to hedge commodity prices accelerated in the last several years because of increasing swings in the price of raw materials.

Copper prices plunged 54 percent last year on the London Metal Exchange before advancing 124 percent this year. Crude oil rose 57 percent in 2007 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, dropped 54 percent in 2008 and advanced 59 percent this year……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Financialexpress.com: Commodities retreated last week as the greenback bounced back sharply after hitting a 15 month-low against a basket of six currencies. After the Dubai crisis, the focus has now shifted to Greece on huge deficit concerns.
Even though the risk of Dubai and Greece debt default is small, more of such events will shake investor’s confidence thereby shifting their focus from riskier assets to safe haven investments. On the macroeconomic front Germany witnessed an unexpected drop in industrial production which declined by almost 2% and the manufacturing new orders fell in terms of volumes……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Alibaba.com: The appetite for commodities, that has fed sharp rises in gold, sugar or oil prices this year, will abate, but not disappear, when major central banks signal the end of record low interest rates, Societe Generale said.

Investors have flocked to commodities in 2009 as a hedge against inflation risks and a structural decline of the dollar, but a tightening of monetary conditions will deprive the asset class of these drivers, strategist Frederic Lasserre said……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Alibaba.com: China’s soaring industrial output translated into record demand for oil and record output of many metals and coal in November, but steel production suddenly slowed.

Official data on Friday show China is on course to cap a decade of robust economic growth with a year of unparalleled demand for raw materials and power, despite the economic crisis that has crippled consumption growth in its main export markets……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Marketoracle.co.uk: The financial markets are generally unpredictable, so one has to have different scenarios. The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market – George Soros.
I realize there are legitimate bubbles in the financial markets, but somehow we are seeing bubbles lurking in every dark doorway. The latest seems to be gold. Granted, gold has had a nice move up recently, and is vulnerable to a short term correction, but I personally cannot see where this constitutes a bubble……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From AP: Kuwait’s oil minister said Sunday OPEC probably won’t change its production levels when it meets next week.

Sheik Ahmed al-Abdullah al-Sabah made the comments to state news agency KUNA, which paraphrased him as saying “it was unlikely the bloc would change output strategy” when it meets in Angola on Dec. 22……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Crude oil fell for a ninth day, poised for the longest declining streak in eight years, on speculation the global economy’s uneven recovery from recession may slow growth in demand for fuel and energy.

Crude declined after the Tankan business confidence index in Japan, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, posted its smallest improvement this year……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Business24-7.ae: More than 120 upstream projects worth $120 billion (Dh440bn) will be taken up in Opec countries in the next five years, according to the organisation.

Members of the Organisation of Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (Opec) will not leave their plans for upstream capacity expansion in the wake of sober oil demand projections. Data available from Opec World Oil Outlook for 2009 states that 120 projects worth $120bn will be taken up in Opec countries in the next five years……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Hardassetsinvestor.com: In 2009, speculation became a hot-button issue, namely, its effect—real or exaggerated—on the energy markets. Was there too much speculation in oil, asked everyone from politicians to soccer moms, and if so, was it driving up prices up unduly?

When it comes to the oil futures markets, the answer may be no, at least according to traditional metrics, says Hilary Till, a research associate at the EDHEC-Risk Institute in France………………………………Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From AFP: Emerging economies are raising global oil demand slightly faster than expected but easy-money policies and unreliable Chinese data may be giving a false picture, the IEA said on Friday.

And oil consumption was “sluggish” in the huge US market where unpredictable and rapidly changing data had a big effect on the global estimates from month to month……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Leadershipnigeria.com: The United Nations’ Conference meeting in Copenhagen aiming to thrash out a global deal on climate change has been revealed to cost over trillions over the next 20years to implement, if the America President Obama and other world leaders hammer out a comprehensive climate deal.

The International Energy Agency says that new energy infrasture alone is expected to cost more than $10 trillions in new investments but “the costs would ramp up relatively slowly and they would be largely offset by economic benefits including new jobs, efficiency, and more secure energy supplies and most of these investments will come from private rather than public funds and the cost of the inaction would be the extinction of the human race”, IEA ……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Stltoday.com: Does Russia hold hostage the future of a carbon cap-and-trade system that many experts see as a critical tool for curbing global greenhouse gases? Improbable as it may seem, the answer appears to be yes.

That is because Russia, as a result of the collapse of much of its heavy industry in the 1990s, owns one of the largest stocks of credits to offset carbon emissions……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From WSJ: Financial markets are returning to normal after last year’s crisis, but gold and silver may be taking a little longer. One sign is the gold-to-silver ratio, or the price of gold divided by that of silver, which gives investors a sense of when either of the two precious metals is straying too far from its “fair” value.
This market gauge, which has averaged about 54 since 1970, jumped to 84 at the height of the financial crisis in the fall of 2008 as investors seeking safety poured into gold……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: One of the fundamental inputs in a gold bull market is a steady rise in the price of commodities.
While in a bull market, gold trades primarily as a currency, its association with the commodity world cannot be neglected in the sense that commodities become an asset class that is sought out by investors to inoculate themselves from the depreciation of the native currency……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: Global commodities investor Jim Rogers is consistently batting for investing in gold over the next one decade. Rogers, who has been piling money into agricultural commodities in China, says he is ready to buy gold as and when prices drop.
He says silver is a better buy than gold, and Rogers is buying silver also these days……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Istockanalyst.com: Nouriel Roubini writes an extended article slamming both gold bugs, and the so-called gold bubble, which he believes is far too volatile, and which, contrary to ever increasing claims to the opposite, will likely not get to the mythical price of $2000/ounce, and instead will head lower.
The argument presented, as is widely the case, boils down to the trifecta of i)gold having no industrial utility, ii) no intrinsic value (no associated cash flow streams) and iii) costing an arm and a leg to store. While Roubini’s thesis is attractive on the surface (if somewhat Keynesian and thus often reiterated by mainstream Economists), we present some counter arguments to Roubini’s thesis……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Theaureport.com: China’s latest slew of positive data “raises the prospect” of Beijing tightening its easy money and fiscal policies, or so the newswires claim.
Currency strategist Steven Barrow at Standard Bank adds that China could be more significant for global liquidity than the United States, too……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Thejakartaglobe.com: If a currency represents a country’s standing on the global stage, then China has been poorly represented until now.

Loosely pegged to the US dollar and subject to tight controls, the yuan or renminbi — the people’s money — is today anything but an international currency……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Dnaindia.com: Sovereign debt risk and the possibility of a default from heavily indebted countries came back as the key market theme last week. This focus had intensified following Dubai’s announcement of a debt standstill last month.
Fitch, the ratings agency, cut Greece’s credit rating last week and Standard & Poor’s downgraded its outlook on the rating of both Spain and Portugal……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Newvision.co.ug: THE Uganda Commodity Exchange (UCE) is working on a new strategy to interest more financiers into supporting farmers operating under the Warehouse Receipt System.

As a result, UCE has trained 60 bankers on the operations of the system. The warehouse receipt financing is being promoted as an inventory-based lending product where depositors can obtain credit from financial institutions against their produce. ………………………………Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Expressbuzz.com: The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) is redefining the very concept of futures trading in agriculture commodities in India with its wide network of service facilities created for the purpose all over the country, said its Managing Director and CEO R Ramaseshan.

He said that his company had been working towards bringing in various participants in the value chain to hedge and trade on NCDEX platform, all for strengthening the agriculture sector and in the process the State and the Nation’s economy as a whole……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Seekingalpha.com: Natural gas, along with related ETFs, finally saw an infusion of lifeblood. The price of natural gas surged this week as the supply of the commodity dropped and money from other areas of the market found its way into natural gas.

On Thursday, natural gas prices jumped 8% as the government reported the first drop in supplies in nine months, reports Chris Kahn for Yahoo! Finance……………………………….Full Article: Source

Posted on 14 December 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Thebull.com.au: As the world’s second-largest exchange-traded fund, and sixth-largest holder of gold bullion, the GLD gold ETF has grown into a juggernaut. GLD’s mounting popularity among stock-market investors and speculators has made it one of the most powerful forces in the global gold markets.
This ETF’s success is all the more remarkable considering it was born just 5 years ago, its rise to prominence has been meteoric……………………………….Full Article: Source

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