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Commodities Briefing 09.Mar 2009

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Livenews.com.au: US car drivers are using more petrol, consumer credit rose surprisingly in January, there’s claims retail sales are still on the up after January’s 1% surprise and commodity prices are showing signs of awakening.

Suddenly hard-pressed US analysts and investors claim to be seeing something in the numbers that others reject. Indeed the desire for a silver lining seems to be stretching the credibility of those analysing the available information to the point of breaking….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Moneymanagement.com.au: Investors could be entering another boom period for soft commodities, as research shows returns are counter-cyclical to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).

Great Southern fund manager David Bryant said research back to 1900 showed three periods when soft commodity prices (including wheat, corn and sugar) outperformed the ASX….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: China’s stimulus spending will help its economy overcome the global recession sooner than the U.S. and other countries, investor Jim Rogers said.

China’s reserves allow the government to spend on projects that will make the nation more efficient and competitive as the global economy recovers, said Rogers, the author of “A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market.” Signs China is taking steps to liberalize its currency will also benefit the country, he added….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Goldseek.com: Something truly remarkable happened last week that has major implications for the global economic crisis - despite all the doom and gloom and the broad stockmarket continuing to make new lows, copper broke out upside from a 3-month long base pattern.

Why is this so important? - because copper has a history of being one of the earliest if not THE earliest lead indicators for the world economy, so much so that it is sometimes called Dr Copper. So what happened?…. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Theglobeandmail.com: Global trade will decline this year for the first time since 1982, and by the largest drop in eight decades – dumping a crippling load on developing nations, according to a new report by the World Bank.

As demands for imports fall among developed countries – and with financial credit for trade drying up – the report stressed that the consequences will be especially severe for developing nations who are experiencing a “virtually unprecedented” decline in exports….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Examiner.com: As an investment, gold shares are highly volatile and prone to periods of inactivity. For example, the First Eagle Gold Fund (symbol SGGDX) is one of the older precious metal mutual funds and has been around since 1993.

It traded at $12/share in December 1993 and lost value until June 2002 when it again crossed the $12/share line. For nine years, an investment in this gold fund yielded $0. It rose as high as $26/share in March 2008 and now trades at $19.67/share….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Livemint.com: In a machine-created vacuum, paper currencies and gold would fall at the same velocity under the influence of gravity. But in a market-created vacuum, paper currencies may fall like dry leaves, but gold still manages to float around.

Ever wondered what makes gold a currency of last resort or a final store of value? It is surely not just its glitter or its unique chemical composition. It is our faith which makes gold what it is. Let’s take a peek into the long history of this unique metal….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: What investors need to understand about the bull market in gold thus far is that the numbers that we’re dealing with, $960 an ounce gold right now, is nowhere near the 1980 high in gold of $875 an ounce.

You have to inflation-adjust those 1980 numbers for 28 years of true inflation. If you did that, the $875 high in gold would have to be $6,500 an ounce in inflation-adjusted terms. For silver, it’d be $400 dollars an ounce. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Menafn.com: Fear and gold prices are interlinked as the bullion is perceived as a safe haven, an asset that loses none of its value in case of a market crash and/or as a hedge against stocks, inflation, deflation and the US dollar.

The recent rally in gold is intrinsically linked to current global economic turmoil. The equity markets are in a tailspin, the governments are busy printing money and mounting job losses have sent investors to seek refuge in the yellow metal for its rarity. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Resourceinvestor.com: Silver prices are poised to outperform gold while moving dramatically higher later this year due to increasing investment demand, attendees of the world’s largest mining conference in Toronto were told earlier this week.

Speaking at the Prospectors and Developers of Canada Association (PDAC) annual convention, German investment fund manager Oliver Frank told a packed room at the “Accessing European Capital” forum that silver will likely end the year in the $25 range. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Indiatimes.com: Amid the gloom in the equity market, gold Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is the only asset class which has been giving glittering returns as high as 36 per cent for the last six months.

“Since the beginning of the global financial meltdown in mid-September, gold ETF has given return of about 36 per cent,” said UTI Mutual Fund Head of Products R Raja….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Financialstandard.com.au: Over the next decade, exchange traded funds (ETFs) could put management fees of many Aussie fund managers under pressure - marking ETFs as the next boom market for fee-for-service planners.

Bruce Baker, director of Queensland-based Puzzle Financial Advice, said the ETF sector will revolutionise investing in Australia, citing low cost, simple risk management, precise timing, and wider investment choice as the building blocks to the market’s growth….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Seekingalpha.com: They are still listed. There have not been any press releases announcing closure. Trading volume has gone to zero. In some cases, the market maker has abandoned his post. These are the living dead of the ETF world - products abandoned by their sponsors, shunned by the public, or both.

It is not unusual for a relatively new ETF to go all day without any trades. In fact, 49 ETFs registered zero volume for Thursday, March 5, 2009. In case you are wondering, there are 843 ETFs and ETNs listed in the U.S., so nearly 6% of them had no trades that day….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Livenews.com.au: As we have read, a small rise in US petrol consumption got oil investors thinking, ‘Boom, let’s go’ on Thursday and Friday. Part of this search for a reason to rebound in markets has emerged in commodities.

Continuing talk of a Chinese bounce and new stimulus package got commodity markets eager to get set, but seemingly they ignored the appearance of such a new, big spending plan and focused on continuing Chinese buying in a number of metals and a couple of agricultural commodities….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: OPEC’s record production cuts are draining the glut in world oil markets, leading traders to bet that $50 crude is two months away.

Ever since oil began its 69 percent plunge from a record $147.27 a barrel in July, traders have been looking for a bottom….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From IHT: Iran wants non-OPEC oil producers to coordinate with the group amid a global economic meltdown that has left oil prices about 70 percent below mid-July highs of $147 per barrel.

The official IRNA news agency on Sunday quoted Gholam Hossein Nozari as saying Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members have “almost” completely complied with earlier cuts totaling 4.2 million barrel per day to try to balance the oil market….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Zawya.com: Egyptian Minister of Petroleum Sameh Fahmi said here on Friday that the global financial crisis has negatively affected the global oil industry and imposed significant challenges to producing countries, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices.

In a statement to reporters, Fahmi pointed to investments being affected by the crisis which led to the delay and slowing down of many projects, in addition to the cancellation of some due to the increase in the credit tightening in conjunction with the collapse of oil prices….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Tehrantimes.com: Morocco has announced plans to invest Dh90 billion ($10.29 billion) in projects across the energy spectrum. It will build more power plants, expand oil storage capacity and step up exploration for hydrocarbons for the six-year period to 2015, said Amina Benkhadra, Morocco’s energy minister.

“This plan links the government and the private sector to implement a strategy aimed at securing energy supply and diversifying energy sources at the right costs,” he told a gathering of top government officials, bankers and executives….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Xinhuanet.com: The development of new energy forms should be an important strategy in tackling China’s energy shortages and pollution, and global climate change, the head of the National Energy Administration said Saturday.

China needed to invest more in research and development and production of new energy sources, or risk falling behind other countries, said Zhang Guobao, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Gulf-times.com: Qatar’s push to the production and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will boost initiatives to tackle global climate change, a senior official at the Ministry of Environment said.

Yousif al-Hamar, director (technical affairs) at the ministry, said LNG, with its low carbon content is one of the most important sources of clean energy. Currently, Qatar is the world’s largest producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodities-now.com: During the week of March 2, several world leaders convened in Washington, DC, to discuss with top US officials the prospects for upcoming UN climate negotiations.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting will take place in Copenhagen in December to negotiate a potential successor to the Kyoto Protocol, set to expire in 2012. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Greenleft.org.au: The free market has got us into this mess, and the free market will get us out of it. This nonsensical idea is at the heart of all carbon trading measures, the Rudd government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) included.

Nicholas Stern, the economist asked by the Blair government in 2006 to present a report on the global warming threat, described climate change as “the biggest market failure in history”. …. Full Article: Source

A SQUARE’s recent webinar on carbon-led investing - with voice-over (which non-A SQUARE subscribers can purchase individually) can be accessed here:
http://www.opalesque.com/asquare/509/Webinar_Carbon_Led_Investing.html

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Manmonthly.com.au: The federal government’s apparent decision to delay the carbon trading scheme by around six months may still leave Australia unprepared for its introduction, according to carbon trading expert, Jan Brandjes of Carbon Focus.

“Our scheme is not proposed to be introduced until the end of 2010,” Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told the Fairfax Radio Network last week. …. Full Article: Source

A SQUARE’s recent webinar on carbon-led investing - with voice-over (which non-A SQUARE subscribers can purchase individually) can be accessed here:
http://www.opalesque.com/asquare/509/Webinar_Carbon_Led_Investing.html

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodities-now.com: Two important points to remember about copper demand trends are that despite the emergence of China as the largest and fastest growing source of demand in this decade, there has been little overall change in average annual growth rates.

For example, the growth rate in the period 2000-2007 at 2.3% was actually lower than over the period 1990-2007. In addition, copper demand growth has been relatively weak for some time….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Investmentnews.com: Bizarre as it might initially sound, it is possible that the timing is right for a futures exchange to trade contracts based on movie ticket sales. The plan — initially spawned more than seven years ago by Cantor Fitzgerald LP of New York — is to launch a platform to trade futures contracts pegged to box office receipts.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has until May 27 to rule on the Cantor Movie Exchange. If approved, the exchange will be a real-dollar version of the Hollywood Stock Exchange in Century City, Calif., which Cantor purchased in early 2001. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: The worst is over for the Australian dollar, derivatives show, after the currency dropped by a record 21 percent in 2009.

The so-called Aussie will remain above last year’s 5 1/2- year low, according to the so-called risk-reversal rate on one- month Australia-U.S. dollar options….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Telegraph: Spread betting companies have reported a huge wave of short euro trades in the last two weeks, leading to speculation that a significant correction in the currency will come in the next few months.

Investors take out short trades when they expect a currency to fall. In recent days, futures traders in the US have significantly increased their bets that the euro will fall against the dollar….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Nytimes.com: As the world is seized with anxiety in the face of a spreading financial crisis, the one place having a considerably easier time attracting money is, perversely enough, the same place that started much of the trouble: the United States.

American investors are ditching foreign ventures and bringing their dollars home, entrusting them to the supposed bedrock safety of United States government bonds….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Chicagotribune.com: As the recession forces Americans to cut back, how can a box of cookies cost $3.49, a gallon of milk $3.79, a loaf of bread $3.89 and a pound of strip steak, on sale, at $11.98?

Will hard times ever show up in the grocery store? Take heart, shoppers. Prices on the shelf finally are feeling the squeeze….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Themedialine.org: The Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) is finalizing a move that will bring oil trading back to the Gulf region after the power to set prices was lost to New York and London almost 20 years ago, the Abu Dhabi-based newspaper The National reported.

The DME was established two years ago by Dubai developer Tatweer, the CME Group that runs the commodities exchange in New York and the Oman Investment Fund. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 09 March 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bi-me.com: Gresham Investment Management, the New York-based commodities investment company led by Henry Jarecki, has a record US$1.2 billion committed from investors betting that inflation will send raw materials higher.

The US$1.2 billion due in the next several months is “our biggest inflow of new money since we started accepting outside money in 2005,” Douglas Hepworth, the company’s Director of Research, said in an interview in Barcelona late yesterday. “It is basically the inflation story. The economic crisis will end at some point.” …. Full Article: Source

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