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Commodities Briefing 20.Feb 2009

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: China, which triggered the biggest commodity price spike in a generation, is now making deals that could prevent another surge in the coming decade by helping finance new production during the low ebb of the cycle.

While the deepening global recession has focused traders on trying to pick a bottom to the current price collapse, more far-sighted analysts have already begun ringing alarm bells over the canceled investments and delayed projects that threaten to leave the world short of raw materials once growth resumes…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Latin American stocks and bonds rose on Thursday as a rally in commodity prices offset another gloomy Wall Street trading session, which saw the benchmark Dow Jones industrial average fall to a six-year low.

Latin American stocks mostly decoupled from the U.S. market as U.S. crude oil prices CLc1 rallied 14 percent, improving the outlook for the commodity-exporting region. The price of copper, Chile’s main export, also gained more than 3 percent…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Marketoracle.co.uk: Call it what you want: commodity, tangible asset, or raw resources. Across the board, I believe that if we eat it, build with it, or heat our homes with it, it’s going to rise in price. If someone (like me) is a commodity bull they essentially believe that monetary inflation is going to outweigh the deflationary effects of a global recession.

In my opinion, “outweigh” is an understatement, but it does speak to the notion that the underlying fundamentals of the commodities market are pulling in opposite directions…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Resourceinvestor.com: The numbers for 2008 are in, and we can now quantify just how rough the year was for commodity spot markets. So far in 2009, the results are much better, though that’s not the case across the board.

Out of our basket of 14 hard and soft commodities, only coal and gold finished 2008 in positive territory. Coal was up 12.6 percent due to a relatively strong first half of the year, while gold rose nearly 6 percent during the year as many investors concerned about rapidly devaluing assets fled to a safe haven…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Stockhouse.com: Equity markets have been starting to climb a bit today as it appears that bears may be backing off having seen that the 7,500 level for the Dow Industrials (US30 CFD) appears to be very strongly defended at the moment.

Economic data has been mixed today with a couple of positive indications. The U.S. leading indicator increased more than investors had been expecting (0.4% vs. street 0.1%) while Canada’s decline was only marginally worse than expectations (-0.8% vs. street -0.7)…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Asianamericansforobama.com: In recent years, erratic weather due in part to climate change, fluctuations in energy prices, and increased demand for commodities are all contributing factors to drastic spikes and volatility in food prices. Adding now the impact of the global financial crisis, the number of people around the world considered food insecure has soared to nearly one billion, and counting.

Can technological innovation produce another “green revolution” to increase food supply?….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Miningweekly.com: International banker Credit Suisse Standard Securities gold analyst Dr David Davis says that the gold price has not been immune to the global fin-ancial crisis, but it has outperformed other commodities.

He says that the key question arising from the credit crisis is what the extent of its effects on the fundamental gold supply and demand dynamics will be, which will affect the gold price. ….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: Money continues to pour into gold bullion and ETFs and gold stocks have made huge recoveries from their nadir in October and the consensus appears to be that there is plenty of upside to come as we continue to be hit by adverse economic news.

Gold seems to many to be the means of protecting one’s wealth with the lowest downside likelihood. Everything else appears very vulnerable…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From FT: Oil prices rebounded strongly on Thursday but gold encountered resistance on its march towards the key $1,000 an ounce mark.

ICE April Brent rose $1.75 to $41.30 a barrel after closing below the $40 mark for the first time this year on Wednesday. ….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: As gold prices continue to break historic highs every day, sales of the yellow metal have plummeted in India’s vast bullion and gold jewellery markets, the biggest in the world. High prices of gold are forcing buyers of the precious metal these days to shift loyalties and embrace platinum.

Gold prices zoomed to a record of Rs 15,750 per ten grams in the Indian market on Wednesday in the wake of the global trend of the yellow metal surging to touch $1,000 per ounce now…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Purchasing.com: The base metal supply surplus in 2008 will shrink this year, according to a forecast released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) in London.

WBMS data shows that in 2008 the copper surplus almost doubled to 329,000 metric tons from a revised glut of 161,000 metric tons in 2007. World refined copper production rose 2.8% to 18.48 million metric tons last year while consumption was 18.16 million metric tons…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From AP: The National Mining Association is predicting U.S. coal production will decline 4 percent this year. Hal Quinn, president of the industry group, blamed the anemic U.S. economy in a speech to the West Virginia Coal Association on Thursday.

Preliminary government figures show U.S. production totaled 1.17 billion tons in 2008…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: Did you miss the bus as far as gold is concerned? If you failed to buy gold when its prices started moving up and now ruing your hard luck then it seems you have not lost everything.

According to experts who give their advice through various magazines and newspapers across the globe, small investors can still make a killing from gold if they opt for gold exchange traded funds (ETFs)…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From WSJ: Despite a difficult market environment, exchange-traded funds are continuing to grow. Investors worldwide poured $268 billion into ETFs last year, pushing total assets to roughly $730 billion at the end of 2008, according to a new report by Strategic Insight, a New York fund research and data firm.

Assets worldwide are expected to hit $1 trillion in two years…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu on Thursday could not say whether the Obama administration was against another oil output cut by OPEC when the producer group meets on March 15, and that he would have to find out the administration’s position.

“I would have to look more into the exact details of what they’re (OPEC members) considering and what, you know, I’m not the administration quite frankly,” Chu told reporters at the Platts Energy Podium, when he was asked if the Obama administration was against OPEC cutting oil output at its March meeting…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg:Crude oil fell, paring its largest gain in seven weeks, on concern that OPEC output cuts may not erode supply enough amid weak global demand for fuels.

Oil jumped 14 percent yesterday after a U.S. Energy Department report showed inventories dropped 138,000 barrels to 350.6 million barrels last week, the first decline this year. Crude imports to the U.S. fell 8.9 percent. ….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Ninemsn.com.au: Brazil says it has agreed to supply up to 100 million barrels of crude oil a day to China in a deal that involves a loan of up to $US10 billion ($A15.65 billion).

The agreement was announced on Thursday after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Zawya.com: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said here Thursday that the price of its 12-crude basket on Wednesday fell by USD 1.75 to USD 38.14 per barrel against USD 39.89 in the day before.

The OPEC’s bulletin said that the annual average of the basket for the year 2008 was USD 95.45 pb…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Arabnews.com: With markets in doldrums and oil prices oscillating in the mid-$30s, a consensus to develop an all inclusive energy strategy seems emerging. And it is not just coming from Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC producers; pundits intricately involved with the industry also seem to be conceding.

At the 28th annual conference CERAWeek — almost an annual pilgrimage to the energy fraternity — the same sentiments kept echoing not only in the meeting halls but also in the corridors surrounding them. ….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Environmental-finance.com: Yesterday saw the largest ever volumes in Europe’s carbon market, as speculators betting on a further collapse in prices found themselves caught out.

More than 50 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) were traded yesterday, boosted by the largest single-day price gain for almost three years…… Full Article: Source

A SQUARE’s report on recent webinar on carbon-led investing - with voice-over (which non-A SQUARE subscribers can purchase individually) can be accessed here:

http://www.opalesque.com/asquare/509/Webinar_Carbon_Led_Investing.html

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Abc.net.au: Climate Change Minister Penny Wong has moved to kill off any speculation the Government will change or delay its emissions trading scheme, amid building pressure from industry and the Opposition.

In a speech in Sydney today Ms Wong insisted that a cap and trade emissions trading scheme would begin in 2010…… Full Article: Source

A SQUARE’s report on recent webinar on carbon-led investing - with voice-over (which non-A SQUARE subscribers can purchase individually) can be accessed here:

http://www.opalesque.com/asquare/509/Webinar_Carbon_Led_Investing.html

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Canada’s currency gained for a second day on speculation a weaker U.S. dollar will drive investor demand for commodities such copper and oil as a hedge against potential inflation.

“The story now is more about U.S. dollar weakness,” said Eric Lascelles, chief economics strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Scoop.co.nz: The New Zealand dollar may push higher as commodity prices bounce back from multi-year lows, and the yen weakens on concern Japan, the world’s second-biggest economy, will delay its stimulus plans.

The Reuters Jeffries CRB index, a broad measure of the price of raw materials, rose 1.3% as demand for oil and copper picked up. Figures this week showed Japan’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product fell 3.3%, while Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa resigned, sparking concern fiscal spending plans will be delayed. ….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: UBS AG’s global head of credit derivatives, Keith Grimaldi, left the Swiss bank on Thursday, people familiar with the situation said.

Grimaldi joined a parade of fixed-income executives who have left as the bank embarks on a “radical” restructuring of its investment banking and trading business. UBS has been battered by more than $50 billion in credit losses during the past two years, most stemming from its exposure to mortgage securities and debt-derivatives….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Hardassetsinvestor.com: A quick recap: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a weighted composite index of the daily rate to ship dry goods (largely ores) on three different sizes of ships on four main shipping routes. The index provides an idea of what the spot price is for hiring a ship, and by extension is an indicator of shipping supply and demand.

A high index level means the cost of hiring a boat is high (and shipping companies are making money - sometimes a lot of money). A low index level means that demand for ships is low and thus so are the costs of renting one…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

In preparation for coming global growth in commodities trading, RDG Trading has planned on developing a greater presence in Asia, with the opening of its first Asian office.

The RDG Trading team in Asia, is to be comprised of a group of highly experienced individuals targeting the provision of growth equity capital to smaller, high potential companies in China as well as companies with substantial operations and growth opportunities in Greater China…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 20 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

FromBloomberg: Orange-juice futures rose, the first gain in more than a week, as a weaker dollar strengthened demand for commodities traded in U.S. markets.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge that includes the euro and yen, fell as much as 1.2 percent. ….. Full Article: Source

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