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Commodities Briefing 13.Feb 2009

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Knowledge@wharton: According to Ignatius Chithelen, managing partner of Banyan Tree Capital Management, an investment firm in New York City, emerging markets are not de-coupled but rather “turbo-coupled” to developed markets.

In this opinion piece, Chithelen describes what he sees on the horizon for emerging markets and for commodities prices in the wake of the global economic crisis. Among his predictions: China will likely emerge as the big winner from the current worldwide recession, and Mexico’s recent hedging of its oil exports will lead to a cap on commodities prices over the short to medium term….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Zawya.com: Oil prices in world markets will long remain within the meek USD 50 per barrel (pb) due to the global economic crisis before starting to rise up to the USD 70 pb level, a new Kuwaiti study said Thursday.

This meant that Gulf countries must cope with the new situation, which is way au contraire to the record high USD 147 pb of July 2008, economy expert Jassem Al-Saadoun, who made the study, said….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Rgemonitor.com: Commodities collapsed really before we had the collapse in the S&P, and one very brief spike, and then going down to a new low which was reached at the beginning of December.

We’ve been just gradually working a little bit higher. Now you may say, well this is really struggling to find something good out there but theres much more than just this….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From FT: Banks were the laggards yesterday as scepticism met the US Treasury’s $2,000bn financial rescue plan. Lloyds lost 7.9 per cent to 87.4p and Barclays was down 4.3 per cent to 108½p as equity holders saw increased risks of writedowns and dilutions if Europe adopted similar schemes.

Nomura said the US proposal to stress-test bank capital positions looked a threat to UK lenders. “The pressure for more co-ordinated disclosure and pricing of assets is likely to raise questions for banks where there are uncertainties over whether their marks are sufficiently conservative,” it said….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Moneyweek.com: On the technical side, we have the descending 50-day moving average which is pegged right now at roughly $49.50/barrel, which should put a lid on this most recent upswing in prices.

If it falls from there, we could go quickly back to $40/barrel. But if it blasts through the 50-day moving average, we could see a quick run up to at least $60/barrel….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.net: China will show robust growth this year despite the economic recession in the United States and other parts of the world and its commodity imports will recover with an increase in domestic investment in the country.

Dr. Martyn Davies, chief executive officer of Frontier Advisory, said at the Mining Indaba in Cape Town that growth in China was more dependent on investment in the country than consumer demand….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Chinese President Hu Jintao is on his first foreign tour of 2009, which includes four African states — Mali, Senegal, Tanzania and Mauritius. Business is booming between China and Africa in commodities and energy.

Here are some details of China’s growing business in Africa: Trade between the two has jumped in the past decade, driven by China’s resource needs and growing African demand for cheap Chinese-made products….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: OPEC has all options open for its March 15 meeting in Vienna to set oil output policy, including a further cut in production, Libya’s top oil official said on Thursday.

The comments add to indications that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may lower oil output for a fourth time since September to prop up prices which have collapsed by more than $100 a barrel….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From BBC: Oil prices have fallen by almost $2 a barrel to below $34 as doubts grow that a US stimulus package will reinvigorate America’s economy. Claims for new unemployment benefit remaining close to record highs added to fears of the depth of recession.

Even an unexpected rise in retail sales was dismissed as a blip - attributed mainly to higher petrol prices. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko on Thursday proposed scrapping oil export duties on future shipments of Russian oil to Asia. Shamtko also forecast oil production in Russia, the world’s second-largest exporter, could drop to 450 million tonnes in 2013 from 488 million tonnes in 2008.

He said investment in the Russian oil sector could suffer a shortfall of 200 billion roubles ($5.58 billion) this year….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodities-now.com: The imperative to implement energy efficiency policy remains a priority for all governments. Recent meetings of G8 Heads of State (2005 Gleneagles, 2006 St Petersburg, 2007 Heiligendamm and 2008 Hokkaido) reaffirmed the critical role that improved energy efficiency can play in addressing energy security, environmental and economic objectives.

We are pleased to offer you a free link to the latest IEA work on energy efficiency: The IEA aims to assist governments with their implementation of energy efficiency
policy. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From IPE: The majority of institutional investors now factor climate change information into their investment decisions and asset allocation, according to research by the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP).

The London-based CDP, a global mechanism by which companies report their greenhouse gas emissions to their investors, said it has surveyed 80 of its signatory investors globally, including asset managers, pension funds and insurers….. Full Article: Source

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From AFP: Canada’s environment minister on Thursday heralded a possible continental climate change pact with the United States, saying US President Barack Obama has opened the door.

“At this point in history there is an enormous opportunity to work together as North Americans to achieve real focused and concerted progress on the environment,” Environment Minister Jim Prentice told reporters….. Full Article: Source

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From Economist.com: In January the Japanese space agency, JAXA, launched Ibuki, the first satellite dedicated to monitoring carbon dioxide and methane. Later this month the American space agency, NASA, is due to launch the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO), which is also designed to monitor carbon dioxide.

The new satellites will work as carbon accountants by keeping a close eye on how the Earth breathes and returning regular audits. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Gold eased on Friday after rising above $950 an ounce the previous day, but holdings at the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund hit a record as investor buying gained further momentum on economic uncertainties.

Spot gold was trading at $943.30, down $1.75 from New York’s notional close on Thursday. Gold hit a peak of $953.30 on Wednesday, its highest since July 2008….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: There is more bad news for the diamond traders in Surat with De Beers, world’s biggest diamond producers, predicting that the rough diamonds sector will only see some recovery by 2010 end.

This will hit the hopes of diamond traders in Surat in a big way as their expectations of reviving the industry in a few months received a blow with this statement from De Beers….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: With the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the third largest official holder of gold, all set to sell around 400 tonnes of gold to fund changes to its financing base, the bullion market is set to witness a flurry of activities in the coming months.

Even though there were speculations about IMF’s going ahead with the plan, this week the fund clarified that it does not intend to alter plans to sell over 400 tonnes of gold….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: Despite the greenback remaining directionless and WTI crude oil prices struggling to rise above $40/bbl, precious metals gained ground yesterday, propelled by ETF buying. Gold was the main beneficiary, gaining 4.1%.

The greenback sparked buying in early London trade as it weakened from $1.2850 to $1.2989. It then rallied to $1.2834 in New York but precious metals ignored this move….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Risk aversion hit commodities with full force on Thursday due to more gloomy economic data, with the amply supplied oil market dropping 5 percent and only gold rallying to extend a 6-1/2 month high as investors sought a safe store of value.

Latest U.S. unemployment data revealed the number of people staying on jobless benefits rose by 11,000 to a record 4.81million in the last week of January….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mnweekly.ru: A possible merger between Russia’s largest metals and mining firms looks far from realistic after both Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service criticised such deals as a back-door way of debt restructuring.

“There is no prospect in such a merger other than unloading debts to the state,” said Alexei Ulyanov, head of the service’s industry department, RIA Novosti reported. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Industrysearch.com.au: ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steel group, reported a huge loss on Wednesday for the last quarter of 2008 and said it would slash production and jobs this year as demand plummets.

For the final three months of 2008, the group reported an operating loss of $US3.5 billion ($A5.35 billion) on falling demand and writedowns on stock in contrast to an operating profit of $US3.3 billion ($A5.04 billion) in the equivalent period of 2007….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Xinhua: The dollar rose against major currencies on Thursday as a major economic stimulus package was expected to come into effect in a few days.

U.S. Senate and House have reached an agreement on the 789 billion dollars package on Wednesday. According to the lawmakers, 35 percent of the bill would be tax cuts, and 65 percent would be spending. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Seekingalpha.com: While the number of planetary currencies grew in impressive fashion over the period, the bull market in new currencies now seems to be over, with seventeen currencies disappearing over the last dozen years.

The number of countries is still growing, however, with the result being a decline in the number of currencies/country….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Engineeringnews.co.za: A new integrated commodity spot and derivatives exchange for Africa would be launched in September, Bourse Africa head of strategy Adam Gross announced on Thursday.

Addressing delegates at the tenth Southern Africa Energy Conference, held in Sandton, he explained that the exchange would, at first, trade in the energy and other commodities sectors….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Fointelligence.com: Bloomberg Tradebook, the financial news company’s agency broker arm, has introduced an algorithm enabling futures traders to execute intra- and inter-commodity spread strategies, giving them greater control of their orders.

The product is a response to several requests from users. “More clients are using spread strategies to trade because of volatility in……. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Sumitomo Corp., Japan’s third-largest trading company, plans to increase staff numbers at its overseas commodity business offices by as much as 26 percent within two years as it expands its international operations.

The company will add up to six staff at its trading offices in London, Singapore and Houston, boosting the total to as many as 29, Koichi Iwanaga, general manager of Tokyo-based Sumitomo’s commodity business department, said….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Nickel declined for a fourth day in London on speculation demand will deteriorate as stainless-steel makers run down inventories of the metal until economic growth revives. Copper and aluminum also retreated.

Nickel has dropped 12 percent this year, more than any other metal except steel on the London Metal Exchange. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 13 February 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Fxstreet.com: Interior basis levels were steady-to-firm Thursday, bolstered by generally slack farmer selling. Grain futures registered mostly minor fluctuations overnight.

Although domestic cash soybean and corn basis only increased by an average of around 1 cent per bushel from levels reported early Wednesday, some isolated terminal markets monitored by Dow Jones Newswires had strengthened spot premiums by as much as 6 cents, and 11 cents respectively….. Full Article: Source

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