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Commodities Briefing 02.Jan 2009

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Commodities, until six months ago the darling of investors and an out-performing asset class, sealed their worst year on record with accelerating losses in
the fourth quarter of the year, data showed on Thursday.

Industrial metals, crude oil and even grains took it on the chin as the world fell into recession and investors sold anything liquid or risky to cover deepening losses elsewhere or sock away cash for a brighter day, wiping out six years of nearly unbroken gains in the space of months……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Scotsman.com: Commodities sealed their worst year on record with accelerating losses in the fourth quarter of 2008. Data out yesterday showed the five commodity indexes used most heavily by investors to gain exposure to raw material prices showed an average 40.5 per cent dive in Q4. That took the full-year fall to 42.3 per cent.

Mark Pervan, head of Australia & New Zealand Bank Research, said: “Confidence in the commodity market is short, definitely short……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Livemint.com: The quiet trading in global commodities markets on the last day of 2008 wasn’t just the result of investors being on vacation—it was a sign that oil, gold, wheat and other futures had fallen from grace during a turbulent year.

Commodities surged during the first six months of 2008 on a combination of rising demand from growing economies including China and India and a huge wave of speculative buying……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Commodity prices in 2008 plunged the most in five decades as demand for energy, metals and grains tumbled in the second half because of the recession.

From July to December, the slumping economy drove crude oil, gasoline, copper, corn, and wheat down from records in the first half. In 2008, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials fell 36 percent, the most since the gauge debuted in 1956, to 229.54. …..Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Taipeitimes.com: The quiet trading in commodities markets on the last day of last year wasn’t just the result of investors being on vacation — it was a sign that oil, gold, wheat and other futures had fallen from grace during a turbulent year.

Commodities surged during the first six months of last year on a combination of rising demand from growing economies including China and India and a huge wave of speculative buying. …..Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: The year 2008 has come to an end and as we move ahead towards 2009, we take with ourselves the experience and historical movements and events in the financial markets. 2008 witnessed commodities like crude oil and other base metals making new all time highs and also breaking multi year historical lows in the same year.

The year would rightly be called as the year of Financial Tsunami in Global Economy; clearing all that came its way for instance the bankruptcy of one of the oldest banks in the history of banking i.e. the Lehman Brothers……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Northjersey.com: During the first six months of 2008, commodities looked to be the savior of investors who were losing money in the stock market. In the second half, particularly for those who had invested in oil, futures contracts were their undoing.

At the start of 2009, commodities have little appeal. Most analysts expect prices to remain under pressure as worldwide demand continues to wane for basic materials of all kinds……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From IHT: After a catastrophic year for global markets, dazed investors are emerging from their shelters to ask if 2009 will be any better. The consensus among professionals? Don’t expect the big rebound that usually follows a sharp downturn.

Stocks lost 42 percent of their value in 2008, as represented by the MSCI world index, erasing more than $29 trillion in value and all of the gains made since 2003. …..Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Barclays Capital stood by its forecast of $76 a barrel for average U.S. crude in 2009, saying improving demand and a supply slide will combine to buoy oil prices.

The forecast, at more than $17 above a consensus $58.48 in the most recent Reuters poll, was among the highest in the survey of 30 analysts. Morgan Stanley topped the list at $82……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: With OPEC seemingly determined to drive oil back to around $100 a barrel, this should be very positive for the gold price as the dollar suffers.

Oil, and to a lesser extent gold, recorded a strong price surge on the final day of the year, which could be bad news for the U.S. dollar, but positive for precious and base metals at the beginning of 2009……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Gold rose in Asia after an eighth straight annual gain as demand increased for the metal as a hedge against inflation and an alternative asset.

Gold advanced 5.8 percent last year on demand for a store of value as a financial crisis pushed major economies into recession and drove equity markets lower. …..Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: The year 2008 drew to a close with the metals market prices hitting multi-year lows. The highs and lows of this year for prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the world’s largest and most-representative non-ferrous metals market, have been extreme beyond expectations.

Few, if any, participants foresaw the savageness of the fall from grace of commodities in general, not just the base metals, and all against the backdrop of a global recession that is perhaps the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From News.com.au: If the chaos of the past year has taught us anything, it is that in 2009 we should expect the unexpected. Nowhere is this truer than in the mining sector, where the biggest boom in history has imploded spectacularly in just a matter of months.

The downturn in commodities prices - swifter and a great deal deeper than that of the Great Depression - has left everyone wondering what will happen next. …..Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: The prospects for base metals in the year ahead may be better than generally foreseen by the markets, although any recovery is likely to be relatively slow.

While the prospects for the year ahead for precious metals are perhaps easier to assess (although equally likely to be proved wrong) those for base metals are so dependent on the state of the global economy, where recovery or otherwise is so uncertain, that it makes any kind of prediction fraught with problems……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From News.com.au: Just days into the new year the signs from China for our battered big miners are ominous. According to reports out of Shanghai, the Chinese Government is seeking tighter control over iron ore imports to help drive down prices for the steel-making ingredient.

That’s bad news for the world’s biggest iron ore producers - Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Brazil’s Vale - as it will give Chinese steel giant Baosteel much greater muscle in the current round of iron ore price talks. …..Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Chicagotribune.com: The Securities and Exchange Commission expects to approve credit derivatives clearing platforms from CME Group Inc. and IntercontinentalExchange Inc. “soon,” said a senior SEC official.

Approval from the SEC is required before the derivatives exchanges can begin clearing credit default swap trades, a key part of a regulatory effort to boost transparency in the market and reduce systemic risk……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Indiatimes.com: Agri-commodity exchange NCDEX on Thursday withdrew its circular on uniform transaction charge only three days after issuing it, with regulator FMC rejecting the proposal in its present form.

“In view of certain regulatory concerns, as directed by the Forward Markets Commission (FMC), the schedule of transaction charges advised vide our circular…dated December 29, 2008, is not being implemented,” the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) said in a statement. …..Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Seekingalpha.com: 2008 was the worst year for the stock market since 1931, and the worst year ever in the fifteen-year history of ETFs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 2008 with a two-day winning streak, but was still down for the year by 33.8%.

It was the Dow’s worst annual performance since the Great Depression was in full force. The S&P 500 this year lost 38.5%, while the Nasdaq fell 40.5%……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From FT: Spiking oil prices gave energy policy a leading role in the US presidential campaigns, though the debate was not especially enlightened.

John McCain and Barack Obama both declared their support for reducing carbon emissions, but alarm over the price of petrol centred the discussion on ways of expanding the domestic oil supply……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Yorkshirepost.co.uk: Indian oil company ONGC said it will proceed with its £1.3bn takeover of Leeds-registered Imperial Energy, despite fears it would back out of the high-priced deal.

The state-controlled company’s overseas unit, ONGC Videsh, said in a statement issued yesterday that shareholders representing 97 per cent of Imperial had accepted its offer by the 1pm deadline on Tuesday and the offer was now unconditional……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From AP: Slovak banks did brisk business as they opened on New Year’s Day for a very special occasion — issuing euros to citizens eager to get their hands on the country’s new currency.

The small alpine nation on Thursday became the 16th country to adopt the European Union’s euro — a currency that also celebrated its 10th birthday this New Year’s Day……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Abs-cbnnews.com: Asian currencies, many ending their worst year this decade, gained on the weakening dollar on Wednesday in a brief year-end respite from a selloff that investors expect will resume in 2009.

Non-deliverable forward contracts showed investors betting most of the nine emerging Asian currencies tracked by Reuters would be weaker in three months……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Cocoa futures in New York rose, becoming the top-performing commodity this year, as global demand is expected to exceed supply for a third straight year.

Cocoa rose 31 percent in 2008, the largest gain among 19 raw materials in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Zawya.com: Oil prices ended the year on a calm note Wednesday, slightly lower after a tumultuous 2008 which saw prices hit record peaks before plunging to multi-year lows.

New York’s main futures contract, light sweet crude for February delivery, eased 13 cents to 38.90 dollars a barrel after falling 99 cents to 39.03 dollars on Tuesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange……Full Article: Source

Posted on 02 January 2009 by VRS |  Email |Print

From FT: Oil and gold rose in the final trading hours of 2008 on Wednesday as investors reflected on the worst year for commodity markets since modern records began.

The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, which began life in 1956, fell 36 per cent in 2008, a record annual decline. …..Full Article: Source

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