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Commodities Briefing 07.Nov 2008

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Financialexpress.com: Notwithstanding the downturn in the equity market and the government’s continuing ban on the trade in futures of eight agricultural commodities, the turnover of India’s three national commodity exchanges and 19 regional bourses increased by close to 47 % in the first seven months of 2008-09.

Metals such as gold, crude oil, silver and copper saw hectic activity at exchanges, while in the case of agricultural commodities such as rapeseed, guar seed, turmeric and pepper, maximum trading activity was observed. …. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Guardian: The era of cheap oil is over, the International Energy Agency warned yesterday as it predicted crude values would soon rebound to above $100 a barrel and double again by 2030 as fields in the North Sea and elsewhere in the world declined faster than expected.

More than $26tn (£16tn) of new investment would be needed over the next 20 years to ensure the world had enough energy, according to the IEA, which was founded during the oil crisis of 1973-74 and acts as energy policy adviser to 28 member countries including Britain….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Investorschronicle.co.uk: The prospect of a full blown global recession could threaten the health of the carbon trading markets, according to carbon market analysts IdeaCarbon, as the slowdown in economic activity across Europe threatens to slash the projected shortfall between European Union carbon allowances and European industry emissions.

This could reduce demand for carbon allowances by around 44 per cent over the 2008-12 period, according to IdeaCarbon, and is already reflected in the recent fall in the price of EU allowances from a peak of €29.33 in July to €17.40 in late October…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: Economists call for an “L-shaped” recovery. Further price declines projected for the next two quarters, but the long-term trend remains bullish; new records in three years?

Société Générale is the latest bank to revise its fundamental commodity forecasts in the face of deteriorating economic conditions and in the introduction to a detailed study, the bank says that the sharp correction that started in July 3rd should be interpreted as the bursting of the speculative bubble that had been fuelled by inflation and the depreciation of the US dollar….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Globalpensions.com: The global exchange traded fund (ETF) industry is set to explode, with assets projected to reach US$1trn next year and then double in 2010, data from Barclays Global Investors (BGI) reveals.

Although the continuing economic downturn has harmed some of the market, which is down 4.1% in the year to date to $764bn, this compares favourably with the MSCI World Index….. Full Article: Source

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From Xinhuanet.com: The UN Agriculture and Food Organization (FAO) warned here on Thursday that the current global financial crisis will affect agricultural sectors in many countries negatively, including those in the developing world.

The financial crisis follows hard on the heels of the soaring food prices episode and will obviously have implications for international agricultural markets and the agricultural sectors of developing countries, FAO said in the latest issue of its “Food Outlook,” a bi-annual commodity publication….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: These are uncertain times not only for commodity, equity and financial markets but for analysts and writers who comment on these sectors. Already, one major analyst who predicted crude oil will rise to $200 has been silenced by its recent fall to $70.

As gold prices have climbed in recent times attracting safe-haven investors running away from equities and commodities, one analyst has now predicted gold would touch $2,000 an ounce….. Full Article: Source

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From Godubai.com: Opec may need to cut its oil output more but it remained too early to tell if a further reduction was needed, Iran’s Opec governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said. “It is too soon to say whether Opec’s November cut agreement has been successful. We should wait and see,” Khatibi said.

“But if crude prices continue to fall, then an additional Opec cut may be needed.” The producer group agreed to cut output from Nov. 1 by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) after oil prices dived from a July record of $147 a barrel to less than half that. US crude was trading around $68 a barrel on Wednesday….. Full Article: Source

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From Theglobeandmail.com: Gold dropped 1 per cent Thursday, erasing early gains as fresh worries about a global recession prompted funds to ditch assets from gold to commodities and stocks.

“We seemed to be seeing a resumption of fund deleveraging. Gold has had a pattern recently – starting out the day on a firm note but as the day goes on the market weakens,” said Bill O’Neill, managing partner of New Jersey-based Logic Advisors. “Gold is just not attracting any of the flight to safety demand….. Full Article: Source

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From Mineweb.com: An interesting viewpoint on the current state of the silver investment market form one of London’s specialist precious metals fund managers.

In his opening address to the successful London Silver Summit yesterday specialist precious metals and natural resources fund manager Ned Naylor-Leyland chose to quote Donald Rumsfeld as indicative of analysis of the precious metals sectors at the moment….. Full Article: Source

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From Mmegi.bw: The Botswana International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) says it is currently coordinating with other stakeholders to facilitate the launch of the highly anticipated Commodities and Derivatives Exchange in the coming financial year.

The parastatal’s CEO Alan Boshwaen says in the Botswana IFSC 2008 annual report released this week that together with the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning and the Non-Bank Financial Institutions Regulatory Authority (NBFIRA), they are preparing for the launch….. Full Article: Source

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From Farmonline.com.au : Make no mistake: carbon trading is going to be a fact of life. What that means for agriculture is largely in the hands of the farm sector.

The overwhelming impression is that serious money is heading into carbon. Globally, about $64 billion went that way in 2007. Where the money goes, agriculture can’t afford not to follow….. Full Article: Source

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From Business-standard.com: Equities were not the only ones. October was the worst month in history for commodities too. According to Standard & Poor’s data, the GSCI index for commodities declined 28.20 per cent in October – the steepest ever.

And the fall in prices of commodities continues. In the first five days of November, the S&P GSCI has fallen a further 0.75 per cent. The worst financial crisis since the Great Depression has curbed demand from builders and carmakers, damped prices and led to a 13 per cent decline in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials in the past month…… Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

The London Metal Exchange (LME) and Cinnober have carried out a major upgrade of the commodities exchange’s electronic trading platform LMEselect. Since the first delivered system version from Cinnober back in late 2003 the total number of trades per month have increased by over 30 times, from approximately 6,000 to nearly 180,000.

The new improved platform went live earlier this week and the upgrade is reported to have been successful and accomplished according to plan. The upgrade comes on the back of a record trading month for the exchange overall and also LMEselect. Exchange volumes were up 44% in October compared to the corresponding period of 2007 with 11,218,308 lots traded. LMEselect also recorded an increase of 23% on its previous record month….. Full Press Release: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Indexuniverse.com: Nepal features eight of the 10 highest mountains in the world, including Mount Everest. And now, the Himalayan nation is about to have an exchange-traded fund. Nepal-based Ace Development Bank says it plans to introduce a gold ETF for Nepal’s financial market on Sunday.

The fund will buy gold directly, according to details released announcing its introduction. On the first day of trading, the bank plans to sell 5 kilograms of gold linked to the ETFs. According to its sponsors, the ETF represents the cheapest way for investors to gain exposure to physical gold bullion other than buying it directly themselves….. Full Article: Source

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From Metalmarkets.org.uk: A poor demand outlook continued to send base metals prices lower Thursday. December copper dropped 9 cents to $1.73 per pound in New York while three-month copper fell $265 to $3,805 per tonne in London after the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and Switzerland’s central bank all cut interest rates during the day.

The fact that the Bank of England cut rates more than had been expected made it look like the UK’s economy is worse than had been thought, which might cut demand more than anticipated….. Full Article: Source

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From Nationalpost.com: Yes, the oil market is ugly right now — “We are projecting that global demand will contract by about 30,000 barrels per day in 2008, the first such decline since 1985,” the First Energy analyst said in a note — but it is going to get better. And soon.

“We think the biggest mistake that many on the Street are making is to have become far too negative on demand prospects in the medium-term and, more importantly, grossly overestimating the buoyancy of supply in 2009 and beyond….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Theage.com.au: Federal Water Minister Penny Wong has been accused of showing “complete disregard” for the welfare of Victorian farmers in the Rudd Government’s ongoing drive to reform water trading rules.

But Senator Wong insisted yesterday that her wish for Victoria to abandon two contentious water trading rules was necessary for the Commonwealth’s water buybacks to go ahead in the Murray-Darling Basin….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Energyrisk.com: Agora-X an electronic trading and negotiation platform for commodities, has petitioned the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to allow the clearing of over-the-counter (OTC) contracts in major agricultural commodities.

The petition calls on the CFTC to amend Regulation 35 (Part 35) to allow for swap and swaption (option on swap) agreements – two-party OTC contracts priced off of agricultural commodity futures – to be cleared through a registered derivative clearing organization (DCO) such as CME or Nymex. Currently, specific permission from the CFTC is required….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Japanese prosecutors will build a criminal case against three steel-sheet makers suspected of colluding with rivals to fix prices for galvanized sheets used in buildings, Kyodo English News reported today.

Prosecutors will name three companies, Yodogawa Steel Works Ltd., Nippon Steel & Sumikin Coated Sheet Co., and Nisshin Steel Co., as well as seven officials from the companies, Kyodo said today, citing unidentified people close to the investigation….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Finfacts.ie: World cereal production is expected to hit a new record this year as high prices boosted plantings under generally favorable weather conditions, the UN’s FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation) said in the latest issue of its Food Outlook, a bi-annual commodity publication.

World cereal production is forecast to be large enough to meet anticipated utilization in the short-run, and help replenish much depleted global stocks. But the agency warned that the current financial crisis will affect agricultural sectors in many countries negatively, including those in the developing world….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Nasdaq.com: Coal production fell slightly from last week, according to Energy Information Administration data. Production was higher than the year-ago levels.

Data, which is based on railroad car loadings, showed U.S. coal production totaled approximately 22.8 million short tons during the week ended Nov. 1. This is about 2% lower than last week’s estimate, but 4% higher than the estimate reported for the comparable week in 2007….. Full Article: Source

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From AP: Oil prices neared $60 a barrel Thursday, their lowest point in about a year and a half, as a growing number of economic reports point to a long and painful recession.

When the economy slows, the demand for energy fades. One side effect: the price of gasoline has tumbled from summer highs, when a gallon cost more than $4. Experts say gasoline could cost half that by year’s end….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Theglobeandmail.com: Copper prices ended sharply lower Thursday as investors returned their focus to the industrial metal’s negative supply/demand outlook in the face of a global economic slowdown.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points while the Bank of England surprised by slashing its rates by 1.5 percentage points….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From IHT: Gold prices and most other commodities tumbled Thursday, reflecting steep losses on Wall Street and a strengthening dollar. Commodities prices have tended to mirror the direction of the equities markets in recent weeks, and they continued to do so on Thursday.

What’s more, the U.S. dollar strengthened considerably against most other major currencies, including the euro and the British pound, after a series of interest rate cuts by central banks overseas….. Full Article: Source

Posted on 07 November 2008 by VRS |  Email |Print

From Compareshares.com.au: In order to be an effective trader, it is important to understand how different currency pairs move in relation to each other. There are a few reasons why this is significant, but most importantly, it allows traders to understand their exposure.

As we have stated time and again, correlations between different currency pairs will inevitably shift over time. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to keep abreast of these fluctuating relationships to fully understand your trades and portfolio….. Full Article: Source

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