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Commodities Briefing - Archive | February, 2013

British pound set for a dunkirk in currency wars

Posted on 26 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Before any British citizens start complaining about global warming, they really ought to stop in gratitude for the last episode: The retreat of the glaciers flooded what is now the North Sea basin and filled the English Channel.
Their history since William the Conqueror has had a one-way flow of invading armies; without climage change, the Brits might be speaking French and having to contend with someone else’s dysfunctional and occasionally disrobed royal family………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global demand for sugar is still rising

Posted on 26 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Despite continued rising demand pressures from emerging markets, many natural resources still operate on a cyclical bias. For example, natural gas demand and prices generally rise in the winter as more people begin to heat their homes. Conversely, when the weather is warmer, natural gas supplies build and prices drop.
Aside from natural gas, sugar has presented some of the most cyclical returns in recent years. For investors looking for a quick trade or perhaps those waiting for the right time to build a long-term position, now could be your chance………………………………………..Full Article: Source

German CO2 output under EU trade scheme flat in 2012

Posted on 26 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Germany’s carbon dioxide emissions from industry and power stations in 2012 stood at 450 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous year, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) said on Monday.
UBA president Jochen Flasbarth told Reuters the volume was virtually the same because a higher rate of coal-burning in power generation plants was offset by lower industrial CO2 emissions due to an economic slowdown in the euro zone………………………………………..Full Article: Source

California’s second carbon auction exceeds expectations

Posted on 26 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Businesses in California paid slightly more than expected during the state’s second carbon auction, with emissions permits for this year selling at $13.62 (£8.99) per metric tonne.
California’s Air Resources Board on Friday confirmed that all of the nearly 13 million 2013 carbon permits sold at $2.91 above the $10.71 reserve price. Analysts said the results suggested the world’s second-largest carbon market is in rude health………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Carbon: The truth behind the numbers

Posted on 26 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Go through any household in a western industrialized nation and chances are good you’ll find at least one product that reads: “Designed in the USA. Assembled in China.” But how does this impact global CO2 emissions and climate negotiations?
When measuring the CO2 emissions of countries, a lot of attention is focused on the CO2 directly emitted by each country. However, the emissions associated with consuming products that are manufactured elsewhere is rarely taken into consideration. This concept is referred to as “carbon leakage” as carbon dioxide is not accounted for in the country of consumption, but leaked to the country of production………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Downturn in China’s investment cycle could push down global prices of some commodities

Posted on 26 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A downturn in China’s investment cycle could push down global prices for some commodities, such as iron ore, by up to 12%, according to new study by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (S&P).
In a study entitled “The Investment Overhang: If China’s Investments Dip, Commodity Prices May Slip” released on Feb 25, S&P found a strong correlation between movements in China’s investment-to-GDP ratio and prices for commodities such as iron ore and coal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold bets cut by most since ’07 as sugar bears grow: Commodities

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Hedge funds cut bets on a rally in gold by the most since 2007 and became the most bearish ever on sugar and coffee as concern that the Federal Reserve will slow U.S. stimulus programs drove prices for raw materials to the biggest loss this year.
Money managers and other large speculators reduced their net-long position in gold futures and options by 40 percent in the week ended Feb. 19 to 42,318, the biggest drop since July 31, 2007, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Wagers across 18 U.S. raw materials tumbled to the lowest since December 2011 as investors’ net-short positions for sugar and coffee hit record highs. Bullish corn wagers fell the most since June 2010………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Signals point to last lap of commodities boom

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Is liquidity-led commodity price boom coming to an end? This is a question everyone with exposure to markets is asking. Last week witnessed broad-based price declines across the global commodity markets, led by the precious and base metals.
Release of FOMC minutes was the trigger. The market participants interpreted the release of FOMC minutes as hawkish and expected liquidity injections to end sooner. An additional factor impacting commodities was the Chinese government announcement of measures to cool property markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Why commodities and emerging markets won’t do so well in this bull market

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities as a group have been underperforming equities for about six months now. The correlation between the two groups has been grinding lower. Even more important, I think the underperformance of commodities—and by extension emerging markets—will persist for some time.
Hang on. If the backdrop is improving growth expectations and continued, if not increased, global central bank base money expansion, why have they underperformed and why should it continue?……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Boom or bust? Jury’s out on shale oil

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The biggest development in global oil markets last year was arguably the spectacular rise of shale oil production in the US and the realisation of how transformational it could be. The oil side of the US shale gas revolution has been building steadily but it was only last year that it dawned on many forecasters that the US is set to overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s biggest oil producer by the end of the decade.
Even the Saudi Arabian-controlled OPEC oil cartel was caught offguard. It was forced to revise oil production forecasts in its annual world oil outlook to say developed countries would be producing more oil in 2016 than developing countries………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Global crude oil markets in 2013 to see demand growth of 1.08 mb/d y/y: Barclays

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global crude oil markets in 2013 are likely to be marked by healthy demand growth to the tune of 1.08 mb/d y/y and a non-OPEC supply profile that continues to lag (+0.51 mb/d y/y), stated London based Barclays in its latest weekly update.
This week the market saw a shift in directional momentum in crude oil. The first half of the week saw a pause in the upward drift, with the front-month Brent contract moving sideways around the $117/bbl range, while the latter half of the week saw prices edge lower. A combination of fading geopolitical headlines and shifts in macroeconomic sentiment has contributed to the weakness at the prompt………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Are you expecting oil prices to fall?

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Recent releases from the International Energy Agency tell of moderating growth rate of the global demand for oil - which was based on lower economic growth projections. And promises of “fracking” to boost oil supply are bouncing around cyberspace. Images of supply and demand curves flash in one’s mind.
Yet, the cost of oil today has little to do with supply versus demand - but is more about marginal cost of supply and producers’ ability to manipulate supply. Peak oil and anti-Obama rhetoric notwithstanding, oil production in the USA has been growing……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Myanmar, shining new hope for global oil giants

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

While other countries may be more reliable and better equipped, Myanmar has emerged as the new promised land for global oil and gas giants unperturbed by a lack of data on its proven energy reserves.
Since political reforms helped Myanmar shed its pariah status and prompted international sanctions to be lifted, the world’s major energy firms have been eyeing the potentially oil-and-gas-rich country tucked between China and India………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Is the sun setting on gold?

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After climbing 500% in a decade, perhaps it is time for gold investors to accept that the yellow metal is a spent force. The secular bull cycle that thrust gold into the limelight as the world’s most rewarding investment is finally waning and the metal is finally taking a well-deserved breather, some analysts believe.
Gold is down 6.5% year to date and there is a good chance this could be the year it records its first annual decline in more than a decade.”Gold will have its day in the sun at other points down the road, but the clouds on the horizon could portend still lower gold prices over the next couple of years,” said Avery Shenfeld and Emanuella Enenajor, analysts at Canadian bank CIBC………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Gold hit by ‘death cross’; Nomura sees $1,025/oz

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices in the UAE dipped to Dh144.50 ($39.35) per gram (18ct gold) over the weekend as the yellow metal continues to perform poorly in global markets. The yellow metal has seen its price appreciate in each of the 10 preceding years, at least by 5.4 per cent (in 2004) and at most by 30.9 per cent (2007).
However, the start of 2013 hasn’t been good for the gold buff, with the precious metal sinking 6.1 per cent in the first seven weeks, and a majority of analysts predicting further, much steeper declines………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Why gold is grounded

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

This ought to be a great time for gold. Interest rates are generally low around the world, and major central banks have quantitative easing programs in place. Those conditions mean gold’s lack of yield is less of an issue, and they usually translate to higher gold prices. Just not now.
Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank, says the Federal Reserve is to blame. The meeting minutes released last week showed a hint of hawkish sentiment at the central bank, and she told CNBC’s Melissa Lee that was enough to spook gold buyers since the Fed is “the mainstay behind the higher gold trade.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Gold finds buyers, but bears still in control

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold futures prices are trading near steady in early U.S. dealings Friday. The market is pausing following the recent downside rout in prices that saw gold hit an 8.5-month low Thursday. The bears are still in near-term technical command in gold and silver markets.
The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early Friday but is hovering near a three-month high. The U.S. dollar bulls have gained strong upside technical momentum recently, to suggest the dollar index has put in a market bottom and that prices can trend sideways to higher in the near term………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Allen Rowe: True cost of bullion

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With gold and silver bullion there have been a number of changes in the modern landscape. The largest change comes via the Internet. In today’s world one can shop anywhere in the country for the best price possible, but is the best price always the best deal.
Hidden fees are sometimes the culprit in a deal. Often an Internet company will state that they have the best price, but then when one buys the true cost comes out. Commissions are often how this is done. Once the sale is established they add a 1 to 3 percent commission making the actual cost to you higher than that of other options. Shipping is another way that some companies make a hidden fee………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Will silver drop to $26?

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The $28 to $28.50 price levels serve as a maximum extension for this correction using Gann Trend lines. It confirms a major level of support based on the downtrend line support extension starting from the November/December 2012 lows, and connecting the January 2013 low measures almost to the dime (a pre 1964 dime that is!).
The upper end of this trend channel is in the $31.50 area. A weekly close above $31.50 potentially could ignite massive short covering. If this upside breakout occurs, a sharp rally towards the $33.50 to $34 level could rapidly materialize………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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1 step closer to the end of the correction in precious metals

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold and silver prices fell for the third straight week as traders speculated that the Federal Reserve will end its current $85 billion per month money printing program sooner than expected. This bolstered the trade-weighted dollar, a move that often times leads to weaker commodity prices, and important technical support levels were breached for both precious metals.
Along with the rest of the natural resource sector, bullion was already under heavy selling pressure before the release of the Fed minutes due to unsubstantiated rumors of a large commodity hedge fund being forced to liquidate its holdings and a fast-approaching “death cross” sell signal for gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Schwab ETFs hit $10bln mark

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Charles Schwab’s exchange traded funds business has reached the $10bn milestone for assets just three years after the US financial services provider launched its first ETF.
Marie Chandoha, president of Charles Schwab Investment Management, said that crossing the $10 billion mark for assets in February was “just the beginning” for Schwab’s ETF business………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Developed nations should stop devaluing currencies

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The world breathed a collective sigh of relieve when finance ministers of the leading economies declared earlier this month in Moscow that they would refrain from waging a currency war. In a communiqu, they said: “We will refrain from competitive devaluation. We will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes.”
They also refrained from naming Japan as the culprit for instigating the latest threat of global economic warfare. It has adopted aggressive monetary and fiscal policies that have driven down the value of the yen by 20 percent against the US dollar in the past couple of months. Instead, the communiqu sought to reaffirm the G20’s commitment to move “more rapidly toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals”………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Carbon trading up in the air

Posted on 25 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Carbon traders bought the rumour and sold the fact this week and those who got their timing right could have gained up to 86%. On Tuesday, the much anticipated crunch vote by the European Parliament’s environment committee attempted to eradicate some of the chronic oversupply in the market which had sent carbon prices plummeting to historic lows last month.
The committee agreed to allow the so-called backloading of 900 million carbon contracts. Average daily volumes for the most highly traded contract is 20 million on the largest exchange………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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OPEC to raise shipments as refiners return, Oil Movements says

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase shipments into next month as refiners in the U.S. and Europe prepare to start operating after seasonal maintenance, according to tanker tracker Oil Movements.
The group that supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil will export 23.56 million barrels a day in the four weeks to March 9, up 90,000 barrels or 0.4 percent from the previous period, the researcher said today in an e-mailed report. The figures exclude Angola and Ecuador……………………………………Full Article: Source

Highest Opec buffer since 2011 no brake on price rise

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Opec’s biggest cushion of unused production capacity in two years is doing little to restrain prices, as threats to supplies from Algeria to Iran undermine the confidence that surplus crude usually creates. Brent futures have advanced even as idle reserves expand in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, moving higher in tandem at the fastest rate since at least 2006, according to data compiled by the International Energy Agency and Bloomberg.
Oil is facing unprecedented political threats, Goldman Sachs Group said last month, three days before Algeria was struck by the bloodiest assault on its energy industry in five years…………………………………….Full Article: Source

U.S. oil production hurts OPEC

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The United States’ shale oil and gas boom has catapulted the country into global energy prominence. The International Energy Agency estimates the U.S. could become the world’s biggest oil producer by 2020, and others are saying it will be closer to 2017.
Experts have realized the potential for decades, but extraction was difficult and expensive. Not until modern technology and drilling techniques that include horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, was it all possible. The U.S. is producing its highest output level since 1992, threatening the strong hold held by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)…………………………………….Full Article: Source

See gold at $1500/oz; profit taking in commodities: UBS

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The weakness in commodities experienced yesterday was a short-term profit booking rather than any structural problem, believes Tom Price of UBS Equities. Widespread rumours of a large commodity hedge fund being forced to liquidate its holdings triggered a broad sell-off in industrial commodities led by crude oil yesterday. “We have been trying to investigate the so-called rumour about hedge fund all day and have not found any sort of evidence for that at all,” says Price.
Price maintains its bullish stance on the world commodities market. “The fundamentals in commodities trade look reasonably sound and there are no structural problems in any of the economies around the world that could justify this sort of shocks,” he adds…………………………………….Full Article: Source

When choked gold responds to hedging demand (and Soros)

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

First, this whole thing about Soros selling GLD is making us sigh a bit. Headlines like “Soros dumps gold as prices sink” are not only misleading but missing the point entirely. What’s even more frustrating is that most of the time the Soros stories refer directly to the issue at hand: the sales date back to the fourth quarter of 2012.
These disclosures thus must not be taken at face value. This is, if anything, expert exploitation of the hedge fund disclosure system, based on the expectation that the filings themselves cause people to react stupidly too late rather than too soon…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Jim Rogers, Marc Faber will accumulate Gold again on this dip

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Less informed money is again selling gold or proclaiming the end of gold’s bull market. The smart money such as Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and those who predicted this crisis and have constantly advocated a long term allocation to gold bullion to hedge systemic and monetary risk, will accumulate again on this dip, said Goldcore in a market update.
Gold fell $40.30 or 2.51% yesterday in New York and closed at $1,564.30/oz. Silver slipped to a low of $28.28 and finished with a loss of 2.99%. The report also rubbished gold’s death cross fears, a technical possibility in charts…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold and silver nearing major long-term support

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold and silver along with their related miners have been under a lot of selling pressure the last few months. Prices have fallen far enough to make most traders and investors start to panic and close out their long term positions, which is a bullish signal in my opinion.
My trading tactic for both swing trading and day trading thrive on entering and exiting positions when panic trading hits an investment. General rule of thumb is to buy when others are extremely fearful and cannot hold on to a losing position any longer. When they are selling, I am usually slowly accumulating a long position…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Platinum to find sustained support as the year evolves: Barclays

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Given their view that demand will recover in H2 13 and that supply will come offline later in the year, Barclays believes platinum prices are likely to find more sustained support as the year evolves.
Platinum has been the strongest - performing precious metal thus far this year. Prices have tested $1740/oz, levels last seen in September 2011, and continue to trade at a premium to gold…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Barclays forecast deficit for palladium market at 681koz for 2013

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Barclays forecast deficit for the palladium market remains sizable at 681koz for 2013, and the market is set to remain in deficit, should mined and recycled supply not be supplemented with stock releases.
“We retain our positive view on the palladium market and believe that it has the most constructive fundamentals across the precious metals” the report from Bank noted…………………………………….Full Article: Source

India, China to import more of Alumina in coming years: Deutsche Bank

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Despite great resource potential, government bureaucracy and local sensitivities have effectively stymied India’s bauxite/alumina expansions in the country.
It is likely that smelter production will move well ahead of domestic alumina availability requiring higher imports over the next several years, said Deutsche Bank in a report…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Why the consensus is wrong on precious metals and the miners

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Precious metals are underperforming while the S&P 500 is soaring. This is leading the consensus to abandon the mining sector to look for greener pastures in housing and financials. I believe this may be the wrong approach to sell discounted junior miners shares for overextended blue chip equities particularly in the banking and housing sector.
Recently a news item from the Wall St. Journal crossed my desk entitled, “A Fearful Time For Gold”.”Then I read another article with the headline, “S&P 500 In Longest Winning Streak Since 2004.” These articles are an indication of what the majority is thinking and may be a contrarian buy alert for my readers…………………………………….Full Article: Source

U.S. ETF investors end 5-month love affair with Spyder gold

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

U.S. ETF investors’ five-month love affair with gold came to an abrupt end in January as they pulled $1 billion from the world’s largest bullion-backed exchange-traded fund to put into other commodity funds, data from funds tracker Lipper showed.
The exodus of money from the SPDR Gold Trust was driven initially by encouraging economic trends that boosted appetite for riskier commodities such as oil and grains. The retreat has continued into February despite uncertainties over global growth…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Amundi shuts commodity ETFs amid ‘hunger speculation’ charge

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Amundi, Europe’s second-largest asset manager, is in the process of closing three of its commodities exchange traded funds amid criticism that such funds are “speculating on hunger”.
The Amundi ETF Commodities S&P GSCI Agriculture, the Amundi ETF All Commodities S&P GSCI Light Energy and the Amundi S&P GCSI Non Energy ETF will be closed “within the next few weeks”, the French fund house says…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Schwab ETFs hit $10bln mark

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Charles Schwab’s exchange traded funds business has reached the $10bn milestone for assets just three years after the US financial services provider launched its first ETF. Marie Chandoha, president of Charles Schwab Investment Management, said that crossing the $10 billion mark for assets in February was “just the beginning” for Schwab’s ETF business.
Schwab’s range of 15 equity and fixed income ETFs have made a strong start to the year with inflows of more than $1bn in the first few weeks of 2013…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Aussie dollar ETFs: ‘Official’ reserve currency status in 2013?

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Over the past year, investors continued to look around the world for higher levels of income potential. For some, the decision to allocate to the debt of Australia and New Zealand in 2012 resulted in strong performance compared to U.S. Treasuries.1
But individual investors were not the only market participants looking to diversify their holdings internationally. In fact, central bankers around the world have long allocated a portion of their foreign exchange reserves to Australian assets (such as government bonds)…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Carlyle buys hedge fund Vermillion in commodities expansion

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Carlyle Group LP (CG), the second-largest buyout firm, bought commodities hedge-fund manager Vermillion Asset Management LLC, adding $2.2 billion in commodities assets as the firm expands beyond private equity.
Carlyle purchased 55 percent of Vermillion for a mix of cash, stock and performance-based payouts, effective Oct. 1, Carlyle said today in a statement. The price wasn’t disclosed…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Is a hedge fund to blame for commodity pain?

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities from oil to gold took a beating Wednesday—is a hedge fund partially to blame? Such were rumors late yesterday: As energy and metals logged some of their biggest losses in months, some speculated that a hedge fund, forced to liquidate its positions, drove some of the selling.
Yet it may have been more fear than fact. While markets were in the red, losses didn’t seem to be enough to push any mystery fund to the breaking point. Nonetheless, such speculation about a seller dovetailed with ongoing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s quantitative actions that may have fueled the decline…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Bovespa-Index futures fall as commodities drop on growth outlook

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bovespa stock-index futures fell, signaling the stock gauge may retreat for a seventh day, as commodities declined on concern China’s property curb and contraction in the euro region will sap global growth.
Iron-ore mining company Vale SA (VALE3) slid in Frankfurt trading. Steelmaker Gerdau SA (GGBR4) may be active after reporting profit in the fourth quarter missed analysts’ estimate…………………………………….Full Article: Source

5 reasons the S&P 500 could fall 20pct by the end of 2013

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Yesterday, I watched the stock market fall because some members of the Federal Reserve wanted to end its quantitative easing (QE) program before hitting its target of 6.5% unemployment. The reason some Federal Reserve members want to end QE early was the risks further QE could have on the economy and inflation.
If the Federal Reserve removes or slows down QE, I believe the market could be in for a correction. With the stock market sitting near a five-year high, I believe this would be a prudent time to think about the investment landscape and see what investment options make sense for the possible coming correction…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Why commodities and emerging markets won’t do so well in this bull market

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities as a group have been underperforming equities for about six months now. The correlation between the two groups has been grinding lower. Even more important, I think the underperformance of commodities—and by extension emerging markets—will persist for some time.
Hang on. If the backdrop is improving growth expectations and continued, if not increased, global central bank base money expansion, why have they underperformed and why should it continue? ……………………………………Full Article: Source

Latam currencies drop on world growth concerns

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Latin American currencies weakened on Thursday for a second consecutive session after a series of weak economic data in the United States and Europe fueled concern about the global economy, driving investors to the perceived safety of the dollar.
The data, which showed deteriorating business conditions in Europe and the United States, as well as a struggling U.S. labor market, came as investors still fretted about a Federal Reserve threat to scale down or withdraw its monetary stimulus program before expected…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Currencies’ fair value a matter of debate

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What’s the fair value of a euro? That depends on whether the answer comes from Berlin or Paris. German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday weighed in on what the currency should be worth, saying the euro’s exchange rate is “normal in the historical context.” French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici had a different take earlier this month, calling the euro “perhaps too strong”.
Economists say Ms. Merkel is right—technically. The euro’s buying power is roughly where it should be, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, which judges currencies based on countries’ current-account balance…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Polish Zloty leads emerging-market currencies

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Polish zloty was a top performer among emerging-market currencies Wednesday, spurred by expectations that recent positive data might lead to a central bank less keen on cutting interest rates.
The zloty continued to be buoyed by recent economic data that beat expectations. On Tuesday, data showed Polish industrial production rose 0.3% in January, when markets had expected a decline of 3.5%. That, along with lower-than-expected inflation figures late last week, means the central bank might have to ease monetary policy less aggressively than markets had projected, analysts say…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Global cotton surplus seen at 1.15 mln tons next year

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global cotton production will exceed demand by 1.15 million metric tons in the 12 months starting Aug. 1, Cotlook Inc. said in its first forecast for next season. The surplus will be 3.54 million tons this season, Birkenhead, U.K.-based Cotlook, the publisher of a benchmark cotton index, said today in a statement.
World output will drop 7.3 percent to 24.3 million tons, Cotlook said. Production in China, the world’s largest grower, will fall 8.9 percent to 6.65 million. The crop in the U.S., the top exporter, will tumble 24 percent to 2.87 million tons…………………………………….Full Article: Source

EU revives its emissions trading scheme

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The European Parliament has thrown its support behind the bloc’s faltering emissions trading scheme. But is it enough to save the shattered carbon market?
Brussels is starting to fix the problems of one of its most important mechanisms in the fight against climate change. The environment committee of the European Parliament in Brussels has now voted yes to amending the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Prices tumble after talk of hedge fund in trouble

Posted on 21 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities tumbled on Wednesday amid speculation a hedge fund had been forced to liquidate positions across metals and oil markets, and gold fell to more than a seven-month low on worries that the U.S. economic stimulus may soon dry up.
Already under pressure from ongoing concerns about global supply and demand, commodity markets tumbled in high volume trade just before 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT), with oil and gasoline prices dropping about 2 percent each……………………………………Full Article: Source

Commodities tumble on speculation hedge fund selling positions

Posted on 21 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities fell, capping the biggest loss in more than two months, as metals and energy tumbled amid speculation that a hedge fund was selling. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials declined 1.1 percent to settle at 668.28 at 3:49 p.m. New York time, the largest drop since Dec. 6. Silver futures led the losses, retreating as much as 4 percent. Crude oil fell the most since November, and gold slumped to $1,558.10 an ounce, the lowest since July.
“You have a sort of mini perfect storm hitting commodities today,” Dave Lutz, the head of exchange-traded fund trading and strategy at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore, said…………………………………..Full Article: Source

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