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Commodities Briefing - Archive | June 18th, 2012

Speed up or slow down - Don’t exit the commodities highway

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

When it comes to investing, wise managers are like good drivers, constantly evaluating the environment, looking for signs to step on the gas or slow down. A positive signal received this week came from Goldman Sachs, when the firm recommended “stepping back into the markets” in its latest Commodity Watch.
Goldman is anticipating a 29 percent return for the S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index over the next 12 months and suggests investors might want to increase their position in commodities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Hedge funds boost bullish bets as stimulus pressure rises

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Hedge funds raised their bullish commodity bets as mounting speculation that central banks will announce more economic stimulus halted a slide in prices and drove gold to its longest rally since August.
Money managers raised combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 9.1 percent to 587,327 contracts in the week ended June 12, rebounding from the lowest level this year, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity crash backs Bernanke inflation view

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A plunge in global commodity prices is tilting the balance in favour of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S Bernanke and colleagues who may seek further action to boost growth as the US labour market falters and risks from Europe rise.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities has fallen 16% since May 1. Oil is down 21%, and corn has slumped 18%. Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, slowed to an annual 1.8% rate in April, below the Fed’s 2% goal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Opportunities from the commodity price sell off

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For well over a year commodities both hard and soft have been hammered. While metals and energy have stolen the limelight, commodities like cotton, sugar, and coffee have also suffered.
In theory, futures contract pricing should simply reflect demand and supply of a given commodity. Soft commodities suffer from weather conditions as well, but experts feel there is more going on with the recent plunge………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Opec stand-off over world’s oil supply

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The fall in the oil price amid growing economic fears has laid bare divisions within the world’s energy producers.
At its quarterly meeting on Thursday in Vienna OPEC, the cartel of oil-exporting countries, held its oil-production cap at 30m barrels a day. However, this decision to maintain the status quo came amid strong disagreements among the members………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iranian Governor: OPEC retaining current production ceiling

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC members agreed on retaining current official production ceiling at their 161st ordinary meeting in Vienna, Iran’s Governor at the oil cartel Mohammad Ali Khatibi said. Khatibi said the members reached an agreement on retaining current production ceiling at 30 million barrels per day for the next six months.
According to the oil ministry’s website, Khatibi further said OPEC members did not made a decision on choosing a new person as Secretary General of OPEC in the 161st meeting of the organization. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Crude oil demand recovery is unlikely

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

“World oil consumption will rebound next year as the global economy recovers, according to a report released by the Paris-based International Energy Agency which said it expects global oil demand to grow 1.7%, for an increase of 350,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate”.
The only problem with the serial oil demand growth-forecasting reports from the IEA is the above example dates from…. September 2009. At that time, crude for November delivery was trading around $71.75 a barrel for WTI grade………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold traders bullish as hedge funds raise stakes

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold traders are bullish for a fourth consecutive week after hedge funds added to bets that prices will rally, exchange-traded products (ETP) backed by the metal expanded and Europe’s debt crisis roiled markets.
Twenty-four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they expect gold to gain next week and six were bearish. A further three were neutral. Speculators boosted net-long positions by 27 per cent in the week ended June 5, the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why gold prices are so high in India

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has given reasonable returns in the past year, despite talks of the yellow metal losing its safe-haven status and being replaced by the dollar. Internationally, gold prices have increased by nine per cent since July 2011.
However, in the Indian market, it has risen 38.7 per cent, as the rupee has fallen over 25 per cent and the import duty on gold has gone up by three percentage points. The falling rupee and the high import duty have kept gold prices high in India……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold to consolidate, rise

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Comex gold futures ended higher on Friday after central banks across the world pledged to avert any market disruptions from weekend elections in Greece.
The dollar fell against the euro, providing support to commodities priced in the greenback, as central banks in major economies stood ready to pump money into markets and prevent a credit squeeze should the election outcome rattle investor sentiment………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Central banks will fuel gold to $2,000 this year

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It was a prospect that was as hoped for as it was feared: a coordinated global effort by the world’s central banks to rescue Europe and save the world. The Armageddon play. The Hail Mary.
The desperate measures turned to in the world’s time of economic crisis.Alas the events suggest there is no coordination between nations. First, China both raised and lowered rates. Then, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke went to Capitol Hill and said exactly what he’s been saying during his entire tenure: The Fed is ready to act; we’re vigilant………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold:silver ratio path not necessarily bullish for silver investors

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Much is made by commentators of the historical gold:silver ratio (GSR) being around 16:1, while the current ratio is more like 55:1, with the implication being that silver will return to its historical ratio to gold.
If this were to happen overnight it would put the current silver price at a little over $100 an ounce - in the writer’s view this won’t happen, even in the long term, although there is definitely room for silver to appreciate more than gold in percentage terms in the days, months and years ahead, particularly if the gold price makes a rapid climb towards the $2,000 level which many do expect………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is silver currently riskier than gold?

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold futures closed higher edging past the $1,600 mark Wednesday, extending their advance to a fourth session - perhaps traders considered prospects for further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, including the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.
Thursday Comex gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session near unchanged in subdued trading and today Gold edged up extending its winning streak to a sixth session as sluggish U.S. data boosted hopes for monetary easing………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Aluminum continue to struggle around $1,950/ton’

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Aluminum continues to struggle around $1,950 a metric ton support, said Edward Meir, commodities consultant with INTL FCStone.
Meir continued that, “Some of this may be due to the lack of fresh production cutbacks despite prices below $2,000. This is especially true of China, where year-to-date production is up some 10% through May and now likely running ahead of demand given the slowdown in the Chinese economy.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Physical precious metals versus their ETFs: which is best for you?

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has been drifting higher ahead of the Greek elections this weekend with many looking to be involved in the shiny metal. The same can be said for all precious metals: silver, platinum and palladium.Your risk tolerance, capital, and access to the futures markets will determine whether you’ll play precious metals in the futures markets or not.
For the purpose of this post we will focus on the assumption that the futures market is not an option for you………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Hong Kong LME bid faces regulator as $32 bln in deals killed

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd.’s bid for the London Metal Exchange, the most expensive bourse merger over $1 billion, may succeed in gaining the approval of regulators who’ve scuttled $32 billion of similar cross-border deals.
Hong Kong’s offer of 107.6 pounds a share, or 180 times LME’s 2011 net income, requires approvals from LME’s shareholders and the U.K……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodity exchange market to be established soon

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MOTI) in collaboration with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is to establish a Commodity Exchange Market where farm produce could be traded on the stock market.
The move, according to Mr. Adu Anane-Antwi, Chairman of the SEC, was to reduce post harvest loses as it provided farmers ready markets for their goods………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Printing money: How to create a currency

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

European officials may not like it, but the prospect of Greece leaving the euro is a serious possibility. The picture will become clearer after a Greek election on 17 June.
If the winners are hostile to the austerity measures demanded by the European Union and IMF, then Greece might have to look for a new currency. It would not be a simple case of resurrecting Greece’s old currency, the drachma………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China global yuan push faces challenges, adviser’s report says

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China’s efforts to make the yuan a global currency may be hampered by the lack of an independent monetary policy, fragile domestic financial markets and an “unbalanced” economy, a report edited by an adviser to the nation’s central bank warned.
“In the process of yuan internationalization, it will be hard to gain the confidence of the international community in the value of the yuan if monetary policy lacks sufficient independence,” according to the report from the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University in Beijing………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Resource 2012 and the $4 trillion crisis solution

Posted on 18 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As we attempt to solve the calamitous events triggered over the past five years by the 2007 sub-prime mortgage crisis, we face an even bigger challenge: how we are to feed nine billion people by 2050 while reducing the world’s use of fossil fuels, and finding acres of farmland to satisfy the increasing demand for beef.
The growth of the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China over the past decade has generated explosive demand for consumer goods by a new and prosperous middle class. This demand has pushed the MGI Commodity Price index up from 100 in 2000 to 260 in 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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