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Commodities Briefing - Archive | April, 2012

Commodities: Look to the seas, not stars, for next frontier

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Eric SchmidtTitanic director James Cameron is backing a company with Google billionaires Larry Page and Eric Schmidt to mine asteroids in space, called Planetary Resources. But a more realistic option for Mr Cameron would be to continue to develop his keen interest in the ocean depths.
Last week, the world’s first sea-floor miner signed up its first customer. Canada’s Nautilus Minerals, which is also listed on Aim, is developing a seafloor mine called Solwara 1 in Papua New Guinea (PNG)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Calm times ahead for commodity markets

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

World commodity markets – energy products, base and precious metals as well as agriculture - have generally traded in a narrow range in recent weeks with no fresh trigger to provide a decisive direction. Last week was no different.
Although at high levels, crude oil market witnessed range-bound trading as geopolitical tensions seem to be easing. Base metals prices too have been trading in a tight range simply because global growth concerns have not disappeared yet, although positive signals are emerging………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities reach inflection point

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity returns will take divergent paths as recommendations to actively manage exposures resonate amid higher energy price risk. Petroleum prices have taken control of the commodity complex once again. This was the main cause for a very healthy gain of over 6% for the S&P GSCI index in February.
Tension with Iran, the avoidance of a eurozone meltdown (at least for now) and an improving global economic backdrop has generally eased fears and pushed equity markets markedly higher in some places. A weaker US dollar also assisted, as has a backwardated petroleum curve………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity trade repository race still on

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The debate about commodity trade repositories intensified this month when the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, working with the software platform of the European Federation of Energy Traders (EFETnet), announced that its new service had gone live.
The creation of trade repositories – centralised databases of over-the-counter derivatives data – is an important plank of the G20’s post-crisis reform agenda. Regulators consider them a good way of getting insight into the risk building up in the OTC derivatives market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Cartelisation blamed for rise in global commodity prices

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Cartelisation is leading to volatility in global commodity markets and keeping the prices high, causing damage to countries like India which is heavily dependent on imports to meet energy requirements, a report said.
A joint publication by NGO CUTS International and Centre for Economic Policy Research titled “Trade, competition and pricing of commodities” suggested that there was need for effective cooperation among countries to curb the menace of cartelisation………………………………………..Full Article: Source

$200 oil revisited – And still looks good

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The consensus is that the world is far from peak energy if cost is ignored. The difference between professionals and politicians is that professionals explore all options – and are only removed from the table for technical issues (such as process reliability, costs).
Environmental issues play second fiddle to professionals – not because environmental issues are not important – but because environmental issues are solved through the design and process improvement cycle. Even after processes come on line, they are constantly reformed for a variety of issues – including cost and environmental………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil slips from near four-week high; Hedge funds cut bullish bets

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil slid from the highest close in almost four weeks, trimming a monthly gain, as investors speculated that recent price gains may be unsustainable.
Futures fell as much as 0.3 percent after climbing for a second week. Oil’s advance halted after it failed to surpass its 50-day moving average, a technical resistance level at which traders typically sell………………………………………..Full Article: Source

International Energy Agency publishes CCS progress report

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The IEA and Global CCS Institute presented the report, ‘Tracking Progress in Carbon Capture and Storage’, at the 3rd Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) meeting in London. At the 2011 CEM meeting in Abu Dhabi, the CEM Carbon Capture, Use and Storage Action Group (CCUS AG) presented seven recommendations on concrete, near-term actions to accelerate global carbon capture and storage deployment.
The new report tracks progress made against the 2011 recommendations and focuses on key questions such as how Energy Ministers can continue to drive progress to enable CCS to fully contribute to climate change mitigation………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How’s the world doing on its climate goals? Not so well

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Each year, the International Energy Agency puts out a study of what technological advances are needed to keep global warming below 2°C. The 2012 report (pdf) is out and the grades are dismal: Aside from a recent boom in wind and solar power, the world isn’t making much progress.
The IEA doesn’t just look at recent trends in greenhouse-gas emissions — after all, those can rise and fall with the economy. Instead, it looks at what clean-energy technologies are actually coming online………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global gold supply remains volatile

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Ever since the beginning of gold’s bull market, this metal’s economic balance has come under intense scrutiny. Demand has been on the rise as more and more investors have embraced gold as a store of wealth. And the supply chain has done its best to meet this growing demand.
However considering gold’s sharply rising price over the last decade, it is clear that this market has been experiencing a major structural imbalance………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Do central banks still love gold?

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Despite experiencing a sharp sell-off on Wednesday, gold and silver prices fully recovered and gold even posted its best weekly gain since February.
Both precious metals received support and climbed higher as more disappointing economic data hit the market, fueling speculation for additional Federal Reserve easing. Furthermore, central banks around the world continue to purchase safe-haven metals………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is silver finally on its way to $40-$50?

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

On February 23, 2012, I provided advance warning of an impending decline in silver to the Seeking Alpha readership, and also provided targets for the decline. On February 28, 2012, we issued a suggestion to ElliottWaveTrader.net members to exit short-term metals positions, and for aggressive traders to even short the market, as the Elliott Wave pattern off the lows had completed.
The very next day, on February 29, 2012, Ben Bernanke was in front of Congress providing his semi-annual report on the economy, and the precious metals market entered into what some termed a “flash crash.” Some of our members made 500% returns in that one day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The silver megathrust

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Between 1970 and 1979, the silver price was increasing steadily from $1.50 to $6, before taking off in September 1979 from $10 to $50 within 5 months. During that bull cycle, demand for silver did not increase but actually declined (sharply in 1979). It was as late as 1983 when demand increased confidently from 12,000 to 27,000 tons per year until 2000 – yet the silver price was in a 20 year bear market during that time.
In 2003, when silver started its new bull market, the demand actually dropped to 23,000 tons until 2005 – during which two years silver almost doubled from $4.50 to $8………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver to hit $40/oz by late 2012-2013; decline to $25 in 2014: TDS

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver to approach $40/oz by the end of 2012 or early2013 as stronger industrial and investment demand tightens up supply/demand conditions, said TD Securities in a commodity briefing.
But longer term, TDS looks for supply to outpace demand starting in the latter part of 2013, with silver perhaps sliding to $25 in 2014 and below $20 over the longer run, TDS added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver supply falls in 2011, net producer hedging tumbles 82pct: Silver Institute

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Total global supply of silver fell in 2011, states the Silver Institute in its latest World Silver Survey 2011 report. Mexico was the biggest silver producer in the world in 2011, followed by Peru, China, Australia and Chile.
Total silver supply fell to 1040.6 million ounces (Moz) in 2011, down 3.17% from 1074.7 million ounces in 2010. Within the total supply, mine production rose to 761.6 million ounces from 751.4 million ounces during 2010………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Dr. Copper is looking

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Traders like to refer to the red metal as Dr. Copper because it is the only one that has a PhD in economics. This year it has been proving its credentials as a great predictor of future economic activity once again.
Copper has been leading the downside charge for all risk assets since it peaked on Feb. 10. After looking at the latest trade data for the red metal, it is clear that it has a lot more bleeding to do. This does not bode well for risk assets anywhere………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Nickel outperforms other base metals as market awaits Indonesian ruling: Barclays

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Nickel’s recent outperformance over other base metals occurs as prices finally begin to reflect upside risk from a pending Indonesian government decision on exports, as per commodity research note released by Barclays Capital.
“Nickel’s relative stronger performance yesterday was overdue in our view given the looming May 6 deadline when the Indonesian government may decide whether to impose an ore-export ban ahead of 2014 or an export tax,” Barclays added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global apparent Steel use to rise 3.6pct to 1,422 MT in 2012: Worldsteel

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its April 2012 Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2012 and 2013. worldsteel forecasts that global apparent steel use will increase by 3.6% to 1,422 Mt in 2012, following growth of 5.6% in 2011. In 2013, it is forecast that world steel demand will grow further by 4.5% to around 1,486 Mt.
Commenting, Hans Juergen Kerkhoff, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said, “Despite the market weakening in the fourth quarter of 2011, world steel demand achieved solid growth of 5.6% in 2011 due to the recovery momentum seen in the first half of the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Farm commodities under pressure, so focus on hard assets

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The markets witnessed a lower turnover last week as the traders displayed caution ahead of the expiry of the April series. The week-on-week market-wide turnover on the MCX fell by 1%. The market-wide open interest fell by 6%.
The MCX turnover gainers during the week were aluminium, gold, natural gas, nickel and silver. The open interest gainers were cardamom, cotton, copper, crude oil, gold, silver and zinc………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Speculators miss rally as U.S. sells most corn since 1994

Posted on 30 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Speculators reduced bullish bets on corn by more than any other commodity, just before the U.S. reported its single biggest export sale in 18 years and prices had their largest two-day rally in almost a month.
Money managers cut corn wagers by 30 percent to 103,079 futures and options in the week ended April 24, the biggest percentage decline since June 2010, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Uncertainty likely to continue in global commodity markets

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Ben BernankeWith the US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) remaining in a ‘wait and watch’ mode as far as rate cut is concerned while leaving the door open for further quantitative easing, uncertainty is likely to prevail in global commodity markets.

The dollar tumbled to key support levels after the Federal Reserve Chairman Mr Bern Bernanke’s press conference subsequent to the US FOMC meeting. Markets were seen guarded on Wednesday, waiting for cues on another round of monetary policy easing………………………………………..Full Article: Source

US stimulus speculation lifts copper, most markets

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities ended broadly higher on Thursday, with copper one of the biggest gainers,
after high claims for jobless benefits in the United States fed expectations that the Federal Reserve may approve another U.S. economic stimulus.
Investors also bought copper, oil and other key commodities as U.S. housing data that showed contracts to purchase previously owned homes was near a two-year high in March, and on a weaker dollar which boosts demand for dollar-denominated raw
materials………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil spread sends commodity price index to fourth straight decline

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A measure of Canadian commodity prices dropped for the fourth straight month in March, led by declines in the prices of oil and gas, Scotia Economics reported Thursday.

The Scotiabank commodity price index slipped 2.9 per cent in March from February, and is 5.2 per cent below the reading for March 2011 — the first time the index has shown a year-over-year decline since October 2009, the report said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investec commodity stars revel in investors’ gloomy outlook

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Top commodity managers Bradley George and George Cheveley of Investec believe over-emphasis on potential negative outcomes in their sector is opening up enticing new opportunities.

In their latest investor note Cheveley (pictured below), Euro Stars AAA-rated, and George, Euro Stars AA-rated, said sector-specific risks and macro concerns were affecting investors view on the sector………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How high does OPEC want oil prices?

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Middle East oil exporters are flooded with cash from high oil prices and spending big chunks of the windfall at home, and one potential repercussion has widespread implications for the financial markets: Saudi Arabia and others need high oil prices to balance their budgets.

How high, though, seems to be a point of disagreement between the Saudis and outside observers. In a report last September, International Monetary Fund staff figured the break-even price at $80 per barrel in 2011 and said it would rise to $98 per barrel by 2016. By comparison, OPEC reported the average price for its crude was $107.46 last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC shipments fall from ‘abnormal’ levels, Oil Movements says

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will trim shipments from unusually high levels through to the middle of May as demand from Asian refiners declines, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements.
OPEC will export 24.13 million barrels a day in the four weeks to May 12, compared with 24.15 million a day in the period to April 14, the researcher said in an e-mailed report today. The data exclude Angola and Ecuador………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil likely to remain costly

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Citi has warned the commodity supercycle is ending as the Chinese driver slows. But one commodity that could stay expensive is oil.
Oil is different — We see Russia as a play on oil, and oil is different to the rest of the commodity complex thanks to the power of the OPEC cartel and the political fragility of the supply side. Unlike most other commodities, oil has many drivers outside Chinese infrastructure investment; as the only major commodity to rise in price in real terms during the twentieth century, its investment and price cycle has been quite different to that of the rest………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEAs crazy energy futures conference, we need $5 trillion

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In a bizarre presentation at the April 25 London conference of the IEA the agency held fast to the now heavily shopsoiled doctrine of catastrophic global warming, and used that as its main plank to put out the begging bowl for $5 trillion.
This is the IEA’s estimate of what is needed for its unreal mix and mingle of energy gimmicks and real energy solutions, that it calls Clean Energy Progress………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA urges governments to speed up green technology deployment

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Governments are falling badly behind on low-carbon energy, putting carbon reduction targets out of reach and pushing the world to the brink of catastrophic climate change, says the International Energy Agency in its annual “Tracking Clean Energy Progress” report, issued.
“The world’s energy system is being pushed to breaking point. Our addiction to fossil fuels grows stronger each year. Many clean energy technologies are available but they are not being deployed quickly enough to avert potentially disastrous consequences.” writes Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), in the Guardian………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold traders get more bullish as central banks hoard more

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold traders are more bullish after central banks expanded their bullion reserves and hedge funds increased bets on a rally for the first time in three weeks. Fourteen of 28 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and nine were neutral, the highest proportion in two weeks. Mexico, Russia and Turkey added about 44.8 metric tons valued at $2.39 billion to reserves in March, International Monetary Fund data show.
Fund managers raised their so-called net-long positions by 2.5 percent in the week ended April 17, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold stocks: Where is the bottom?

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold and silver mining stocks have sold off by roughly 30% from their 52-week highs based on the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU) and by roughly 32% based on the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI). In comparison, gold is down approximately 14% from its nominal all time high in 2011 while silver is down approximately 37%.
The XAU / Gold ratio suggests that gold and silver miners are oversold. In fact, the shares of some companies are trading below their net asset values………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Indian Gold buying during festival season pales compared to 2011

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Physical demand for gold has been very uninspiring with the amount of buying in conjunction with an Indian festival appearing well below levels from a year ago, said UBS in a commodity briefing.

According to the bank, combined volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have been fairly decent lately, consistently trading above the 12-month rolling average of about 7.5 metric tons so far this week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India bullion trading tanks 27pct in April first half

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The value of India’s bullion trade at the country’s commodity exchanges fell by more than a quarter during the first half of April, a recent report by the country’s Forward Markets Commission (FMC) shows.

As the the FMC data, the total value of bullion trade for April 01-April 15, 2012 was Rs 239337.24 Crore. This is 27.30% lower than the Rs 329216.87 Crore of bullion traded during the same period in 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Diamonds as a commodity

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Could diamonds be the new gold? A small number of investment professionals around the world are competing behind the scenes to turn the gem into a commodity that would be available to investors in the way that gold has been traded through funds on exchanges.

Trading in diamonds is limited in the United States to the retail market for engagement rings and other jewelry and the back-room bargaining among merchants in places like Manhattan’s diamond district on West 47th Street………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Russian influence in the palladium market and why 2012 could see a market deficit

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In Russia, all Precious Group Metal (PGM) inventories were deemed to belong to the State until the collapse of the USSR in 1989. As such, all information regarding production, reserves, refining, consumption and exports were considered to be a state secret and therefore not publicly available.

The secrecy over the status and amount of Russian palladium stocks, coupled with unrest in the region have frequently raised concerns about possible disruptions to the palladium market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Aluminium, palladium demand to grow in China as copper, zinc falls: Barclays

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Chinese economy is shifting towards a consumption driven economy from an investment dependent one and this is likely to have a profound impact on the usage of commodities, a recent report by Barclays Capital indicates.

Metals like aluminium, nickel, gold and palladium are expected to increased demand during this change while growth in demand for metals like copper, zinc and steel is expected to fall. In short, commodities that are more dependent on consumer demand are likely to gain more……………………………………….Full Article: Source

UBS launches 2nd broad commodities ETN

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

UBS, the Swiss-based bank known for its private-banking arm, added to its family of exchange-traded notes today with the launch of a broad commodities-focused ETN that provides blended exposure to a total of 28 commodities and that’s designed to control the deleterious effects of contango.

The ETRACS DJ-UBS Commodity Index 2-4-6 Blended Futures ETN (NYSEArca: BLND) comes with an annual expense ratio of 0.70 percent, and is so named because it is an equal weighted portfolio among three Dow Jones-UBS indexes that cherry pick different parts of the futures curve………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Indian commodity futures post first fall in volume

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

India’s commodity futures turnover posted its first-ever drop in the two weeks to April 15, as traders took to the sidelines fearing more bans after guar trade was suspended and as striking jewellers stayed away from hedging.
The turnover dropped 13.5 per cent from a year earlier to 5.13 trillion rupees ($97.21 billion) during April 1-15, the commodities market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Freepoint Commodities to buy J.P. Morgan unit

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Freepoint Commodities LLC, a commodity merchant founded by former RBS Sempra executives, said that it will acquire the mineral concentrates business from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., representing its leaders’ latest move to make a comeback into the physical commodities trading business.

The deal, which was announced on Wednesday, will reunite a team of metal traders with David Messer, former chief executive of RBS Sempra Commodities, a joint venture between Royal Bank of Scotland Group and Sempra Energy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Currencies becalmed but some see trouble ahead

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Some of the biggest players in foreign exchange sense trouble ahead for the euro and believe a major shakeout is coming, even though forward-looking FX derivatives point to yet more lethargy.

Judging from options prices, which measure how much volatility traders are predicting, the euro in broad terms is expected to move just 1.8% either side of where it is currently trading, at just over $1.32. That’s about a third less than the market anticipated at the start of the year, and it also mirrors a broader market trend: the so-called implied volatility priced into a whole host of major currencies is at its lowest level in years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Euro oscillates wildly, last little changed

Posted on 27 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The euro was little changed against the dollar in a volatile session on Thursday which saw the single currency swing from a three-week high to losses and then higher after signs of a pickup in U.S. housing raised risk appetite.
Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes increased solidly to a near two-year high in March, data showed………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Chinese yuan to become key commodities currency

Posted on 26 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold, copper and other commodities could be paid for in yuan within a decade or two, bankers and traders said on Wednesday, provided China pursues its policy of gradually freeing up trade in the currency.

Already the world’s biggest consumer of commodities such as industrial metals and oil, China’s economy is growing more than three times faster than most developed countries………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Australia, the global commodities cop?

Posted on 26 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In his wide-ranging and insightful contribution of 20 April, Bandid Nijathawan cites ‘gatekeeper for the international commodities market’ as potentially Australia’s most useful contribution to Asia.
This important remark shines a spotlight on a widely known but rarely discussed fact: an important percentage of all commodities produced worldwide are not brought to market by the producer but by little-known and partly unregulated traders………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Canada: Commodities boom, miners’ bust

Posted on 26 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s been a great year to be involved in Canada’s natural resource sector—unless you happen to own stock in some of the companies. Even with oil trading at more than $100 a barrel and gold hovering just below $1,700 an ounce, Canadian resource companies have been struggling to hit their earnings targets.
Canadian mining companies were among the worst performers of the year, according to a recent report from National Bank Financial. They were dead last among commodity-producing countries, the report’s authors said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Emerging market growth puts strain on commodities

Posted on 26 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The rapid growth of emerging markets is putting serious strains on commodities including agriculture and oil, although this provides sub-Saharan Africa with opportunities, according to Nick Calabrese, head of commodities trading and sales at Absa Capital.
Calabrese said in a media briefing on Wednesday that emerging markets were the “key drivers” for continuing global growth, but growth was becoming more concentrated on ommodities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Passive aggression in commodities

Posted on 26 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities stink. Note the use of the plural there. Putting your money into a basket of raw materials has become commonplace. What better way to invest in this post-tech-bubble, pre-Chinese dominance world? Wall Street has pushed this asset class with almost as much fervor as it did dot-coms in the 1990s.

Thing is, looking across multiple time horizons, broad bets on commodities quite often haven’t delivered. According to data from FactSet Research, total returns on the S&P 500 have beaten those on broad raw materials trackers such as the Standard & Poor’s-Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index over the past three months, year-to-date and the past six months………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Too many negatives priced into commodities stocks, say Investec managers

Posted on 26 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The market could be pricing in too many negative outcomes for commodities companies. George and Cheveley, co-managers of the £274.5m Investec Enhanced Natural Resources fund, say the price of commodity equities and their underlying commodities in recent months is due to a mix of sector-specific and macro concerns.

These factors include the effects of cost inflation on both operating costs and capital expenditure, repressed growth among some of the larger names in the sector, fears about slower Chinese growth and recovery in the US leading to a stronger dollar and lower interest rates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Hot commodity: Research on prices

Posted on 26 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold glitters, of course. It has for centuries. The world economy turns on the ups and downs of oil prices. Rising food prices threaten even the toughest dictatorships. Commodity prices matter—and not just to traders and investors.

For decades, commodity prices fell almost inexorably. But around 2000 they turned up, sparking plausible predictions about the onset of a “commodity supercycle,” a very long stretch of unusually large and sustained price increases………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC needs to see data to decide output in June - President

Posted on 26 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries first needs to examine data before increasing its output at the organization’s meeting in Vienna in June, OPEC president and Iraqi oil minister said Wednesday.

Abdul Karee Luaiby said OPEC would discuss on June 14 recommendations by the organization’s experts in liaison with the OPEC Secretariat and it would decide either to lift output or not………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity trading trends: When to stop shorting natural gas

Posted on 26 April 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As natural gas has continued its massive decline, a number of investors (myself included) have hopped into short positions, allowing most to receive handsome profits in recent weeks. NG futures have been under a fair amount of pressure as this past winter was extremely mild curtailing demand for this commodity.
Adding to that, new advancements in fracking have led to even greater supply, depressing prices to levels that none could have predicted. But while a short position in this commodity has yielded strong results, its outlook is beginning to turn sour, as a seasonal trend is threatening natural gas……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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