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Commodities Briefing - Archive | February 24th, 2012

Should you invest in commodities?

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It has become accepted wisdom over the past few years that investors should allocate a small portion of their portfolios to commodities. The reason: Commodities provide diversification, often moving in patterns that don’t correlate with stocks and bonds.
But not everyone is on board. “There is one very good reason not to invest in commodities themselves. Their expected long-run real return is zero,” writes Dylan Grice, a London-based strategist for Societe Generale Bank, in a report titled “Commodities for the long run? Not on your Nellie — I’d rather eat coal!!”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

OPEC shipments drop as ‘spring trough’ nears, Oil Movements says

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC will reduce crude shipments by 0.3 percent this month as demand nears its “spring trough,” according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will export 23.27 million barrels a day in the four weeks to March 10, compared with 23.34 million in the period to Feb. 11, the Halifax, England-based researcher said today in an e-mailed report. The figures exclude Angola and Ecuador………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How much oil in the world is left? OPEC isn’t saying

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Since Oil touches nearly every single aspect of those in the industrialized world — food, clothing, electronics, hygiene products and transportation would not exist without it - it would seem an important question as to how much oil, a finite resource is left. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC isn’t saying, as it’s one of their most highly guarded state secrets.
“Fossil fuels are roughly 84 per cent of what we use, and oil is 35 per cent of the world’s primary consumption energy,” David Hughes, a geoscientist who studied Canada’s energy resources for nearly four decades says………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran OPEC Governor: Iran production is broadly stable this month

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A top Iranian oil official said Thursday that the country’s oil production was stable this month but warned that the balance between global supply and demand would likely tighten in the third quarter of this year.
Speaking to Dow Jones Newswires, Muhammad Ali Khatibi, Iran’s governor for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said: “it is a normal situation.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

‘Stupid’ and oil prices

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

‘The American people aren’t stupid,” thundered President Obama in Miami, ridiculing Republicans who are blaming him for rising gasoline prices. Let’s hope he’s right, because not even Forrest Gump could believe the logic of what Mr. Obama is trying to sell.
To wit, that a) gasoline prices are beyond his control, but b) to the extent oil and gas production is rising in America, his energy policies deserve all the credit, and c) higher prices are one more reason to raise taxes on oil and gas drillers while handing even more subsidies to his friends in green energy. Where to begin?……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil-spread bets resurface

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Rising North American oil production is shaking up the crude markets and reviving some familiar trades that yielded big profits for investors last year.
Output from North Dakota, Canada and elsewhere is again leading to a buildup of oil in Cushing, Okla., and pipeline congestion around the central U.S. oil hub………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA accountability index to show transparency in oil industry

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A senior economist with the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Professor John Asafo-Adjei has cautioned that Ghana may not fully maximize its return from the oil and gas industry if efforts are not made to improve transparency.
The institute on Wednesday released a Petroleum Transparency and Accountability Index to promote transparency and accountability in the management of oil as well as enhance the level of responsibility on the part of policy makers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold, silver hit 2012 highs as dollar slips

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold and silver settled at 2012 highs Thursday, as a weaker dollar and political tension over sanctions on Iran boosted demand for the metals as alternative assets.
Gold for April delivery, the most actively traded contract, rose $15, or 0.9%, to settle at $1,786.30 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement price since Nov. 15 and the third-consecutive session of gains………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Buffet mischaracterizes gold’s bull market

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Once again someone famous and once again Warren Buffet is dismissing gold. In comparing it to the bubbles in housing and Internet stocks, he feels he’ll ultimately be vindicated. In his annual letter to shareholders, Buffet trashed gold as a bubble that is being driven by fear of other asset classes.
He believes that those who buy today only do so because they believe the “ranks of the fearful will grow.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Indian gold imports seen down 20pct in 2012

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Indian gold imports in 2012 could fall by a fifth for the first time in three years to 770 tonnes as investors chase better accruals from equity markets and other financial instruments, possibly ceding the position of top consumer to China.
Gold prices in Indian rupees have gained five percent so far in this calendar year as compared to 17.5 percent gains in stock markets in Asia’s third largest economy which seems to be recovering after a dismal 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Miners saving the silver price?

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In another look at the silver market, Will Bancroft takes a look at Eric Sprott’s call to silver miners in November 2011. Have the suppliers of silver bullion to the market taken heed? Are the miners reclaiming the silver price? Read on to see how Mr Sprott’s call has been received, whether the miners are rethinking their precious product.
Silver market observers will have likely noticed Eric Sprott’s open letter calling silver miners to arms last November. Mr Sprott urged the miners to think about bit more deeply about their precious product, given his concerns about an unhealthy disconnect between the physical and paper silver markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Lack of supply will push silver to $50/oz in 24 months: Kingsgate CEO

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver prices are so low right now that there is a huge room for upside movement, says CEO of Kingsgate Consolidated -Gavin Thomas. Kingsgate Consolidated is an Australia based mining company.
“Silver is a fantastic opportunity. I see there’s a lot of upward price (for the metal), because of the lack of supply”, CNBC quoted Gavin who also went on to add that he expected prices to hit $50 within the coming 24 months………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India predicted to import 5000 tonnes silver in 2012, price to exceed $60/oz

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver prices in India are set to surge to $2,033 (Rs 100,000) a kilo (over US$60/ounce) in 2012 given the uncertain global economic situation, according to an official of the Bombay Bullion Association, an apex traders body that deals in gold and silver.
The world’s largest importer of silver, India, could well import 5,000 tonnes this year as compared to about 4,800 tonne in 2011, the official pointed out………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Platinum’s rally maturing: UBS

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Platinum has rallied nearly $400 an ounce since its lows set on Dec. 29 of $1,347.60 for the April Nymex contract, and Edel Tully, analyst at UBS, said the metal has likely risen as far as it will for the time being.
“We’re reluctant to chase it materially higher from here. For fresh buyers, a lot of upside potential has already been missed,” Tully said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper traders most bullish in two months as hedge funds buy

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Copper traders are the most bullish in two months on speculation that demand will strengthen from the U.S. to China at a time when stockpiles monitored by the world’s biggest metals exchange are at a 2 1/2 year low.
Fourteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to gain next week and 10 were neutral, the highest proportion since Dec. 23………………………………………..Full Article: Source

List of top commodity ETFs

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The demand for a finite natural resources and long-term weakness in the U.S. dollar are major market themes. Commodity exchange traded fund investors can take advantage of the daily price changes that reflect the tug-of-war between supply and demand or take on a long-term macroeconomic view.
“Historically, commodities have maintained very low correlations to equities and bonds and high correlation to inflation,” according to Morningstar analyst Abraham Bailin………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Foreign, commodity ETFs look overbought, Bespoke says

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

This is what stocks look like after a rally: Fully 94% of the exchange-traded funds tracked by Bespoke Investment Group are above their 50-day moving averages. The reach is greatest in foreign and commodity-tracking ETFs.
The Barclays iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP) is the farthest above the 50-day MA of any of the 200 funds Bespoke tracks, followed by the PowerShares Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production Portfolio (PXE) and the PowerShares DB Silver Fund (DBS)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

For sale: The London Metal Exchange?

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The world’s biggest metals market has drawn multiple takeover bids and its board is meeting on Feb. 23 to review them.
Among those expressing interest were CME Group (CME), NYSE Euronext (NYX), and IntercontinentalExchange (ICE), according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter who declined to be identified because the negotiations are private. The companies declined to comment………………………………………..Full Article: Source

MCX IPO fully subscribed

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.’s initial public offering to raise as much as 6.63 billion rupees ($135 million) was fully covered on the second day of the share sale Thursday, as investors bid to buy into the country’s largest commodity bourse by trading volume.
The first-ever listing by an exchange in India–also the first listing in 2012–is being keenly watched as a barometer of appetite for primary issuance in a year when stock markets have surged after a feeble 2011……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Natixis says to reduce commodities market business

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

French investment bank Natixis plans to “significantly reduce” its commodities market activities, its chief executive said on Thursday, as it scales back exposure to less profitable activities.
Natixis said in January in an internal presentation that it had received and was studying expressions of interest for its commodities unit, and the comments by Chief Executive Laurent Mignon are a sign that it may still be in play………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Jim Rogers: Attack on Iran, pure “madness” — likes gold & silver as hedge

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Jim Rogers fears an attack on Iran will happen, calling a military confrontation with the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, “madness.” The 69-year-old chairman of Rogers Holdings also favors commodities over paper assets as investment for the remainder of the decade, especially gold during tensions in the Middle East.
“It is pretty clear that many people in Washington DC and in America who want to do something with Iran,” Rogers told India-based Economic Times………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Brazil minister says global currency war is intensifying

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A global “currency war” will intensify this year as the world economy slows, Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said, adding that Brazil is “well prepared” to defend its currency against unwanted appreciation.
“Global economic growth in 2012 will be below that of 2011,” Mr. Mantega said ahead of his participation at a meeting of finance and monetary officials from the Group of 20 nations this weekend in Mexico City. “One of the results of the slowdown is that the global currency war is intensifying.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Currency volatility falls to lowest since 2008 on global growth optimism

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Volatility of currencies of Group of Seven nations fell to lowest level since August 2008 amid optimism the global economy is improving, giving investors more confidence to buy assets that appreciate in periods of growth.
Implied volatility of three-month options on Group of Seven currencies as tracked by the JPMorgan G7 Volatility Index fell as low as 9.76 percent today, the least since Aug. 8, 2008, as options traders scale back risk of large exchange rate swings………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Half think Euro will fail by summer

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Apparently half of all Britons think the Euro is in such dire straights that it will have folded entirely by the summer. We can all look forward to a continent in disarray, currencies in free-fall, and suddenly finding ourselves very well off when we travel in the ‘former eurozone’.
However, the experts warn that this is both highly unlikely, and a fairly dangerous mistake to make………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Climate hysteria threatens global carbon war

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

During the past decade, the European Union blazed a green trail with a series of laws mandating a low-carbon economy and promises to set an example for other parts of the world. That now seems like another era.
The E.U. Emissions Trading System — the Union’s flagship climate policy, which requires industries to acquire emissions permits — has been battered by extreme volatility, tax fraud, recycling of used credits, suspicions of profiteering and online attacks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

EU CO2 trade cost on airlines outweigh fuel tax, Sandbag says

Posted on 24 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Costs for airlines in the U.K. under the European Union emissions trading system are less than 1 percent of what they would pay in fuel taxes, according to Sandbag, an environmental lobby group.
Compliance costs for the 20 biggest airlines registered with the U.K. will be about 76 million pounds ($119 million) in 2012, Rob Elsworth, policy officer in London for the group, said today in an e-mailed statement………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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