Commodities Briefing - Archive | January, 2011
Posted on 31 January 2011 by VRS | Email |Print
From Cnbc.com: “If the world economy gets better, commodities are going to make a fortune. If the world economy does not get better, commodities are the place to be because they are going to print more money, and that’s how you protect yourself,” investor Jim Rogers told Larry Kudlow on CNBC.
“This is the time when you should own real assets, not stocks and bonds. Throughout history, go back and look, you know we had huge inflation in the 70s, stocks were not in a good place to be,” he said…………………………………….Full Article: Source
Posted on 31 January 2011 by VRS | Email |Print
From Business-standard.com: The commodity cycle in 2010 has been interesting, defying as it does movements in fundamentals at times. Prices have tended to increase over the year across all categories at a time when the world economy is just about recovering — the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects developed countries to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2010 and emerging markets by 7.1 per cent to bring a cumulative growth of 4.8 per cent for the global economy.
Two issues flow from this. One, if the present increase is being brought about by emerging markets, then when the developed economies grow, there will be a further strain on prices. Two, even farm products have shown an increase in prices when there was no apparent crop failure…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Commodityonline.com: Crude Oil has turned out to be the hottest commodity these days. Along with gold, crude oil is driving up commodity prices these days. Legendary commodities investor Jim Rogers feels that crude oil price will surpass $150 per barrel thanks to the depleting reserves of oil around the world.
Rogers who is a known authority on commodities, said: “It’s not going to $150 this week or this month, but the surprise is going to be how high the price of oil stays.”……………………………………Full Article: Source
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From Khaleejtimes.com: Billionaire energy investor T. Boone Pickens may have missed out on last year’s commodity boom, but the long-time bull told Reuters he sees further gains in store for oil prices that are now pushing $100 a barrel.
In a market that he said increasingly resembles 2008, crude oil should hit $120 this year, a rally that could help revive the hedge fund he runs after a 15 percent loss in 2010…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Moneycontrol.com: The West’s main energy watchdog, the IEA, called on Saturday on oil group OPEC to be flexible in the face of instability in the Arab world, saying prices could spike even because of a small disruption.
“At this moment the Suez Canal is open and there is no problem with the supply side,” the executive director of the International Energy Agency, Nobuo Tanaka, told Reuters referring to riots in Egypt…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Reuters: OPEC ministers will discuss oil output policy on the sidelines of an international energy conference in Saudi Arabia on February 22, an OPEC delegate said.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is under pressure to raise output and rein in oil prices now near $100 a barrel…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Gulfnews.com: Considering oil price movements in the second half of 2010, it is not surprising that the momentum has carried oil prices to new highs in January this year. The price of brent, the now preferred marker crude, may have approached $100 (Dh367.24) a barrel and its average for January may be close to $97 a barrel as compared to $92.19 last December.
Similarly, Opec’s basket of crudes price started the year at $88.99 a barrel and approached $95 more than once. The average for the month may be close to $93 a barrel compared to $88.56 a barrel in December and $72.51 a barrel in July 2010…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Bloomberg: Hedge funds cut bullish bets on oil last week by the most in two months before political protests erupted in Egypt, igniting a rally that sent prices up by the most since 2009.
The funds and other large speculators reduced net-long positions, or wagers on rising oil prices, by 18 percent in the seven days ended Jan. 25, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitments of Traders report. That turned into a losing bet as prices surged at the end of the week…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Chinamining.org: China’s gold output hit a new high of 340.88 tonnes last year, registering a year-on-year increase of 8.57 per cent. According to the latest data from China Gold Association, China’s gold output has been the world’s largest since 2007, when it surpassed that of South Africa.
China’s gold output recorded only 4.07 tonnes in 1949 and rose to 13.8 tonnes in 1975. China started to invest heavily in the gold industry since the 1970s…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Reuters: Gold futures are likely to recover from their 13-week low this quarter and extend their rise further to breach 21,000 rupees by the end of the third quarter, analysts and importers said.
On Thrusday evening, gold for February delivery was trading 0.33 percent lower at 19,613 rupees per 10 grams, after hitting a low of 19,515 rupees, a level last seen in early November…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Resourceinvestor.com: An unexpected specter is haunting the streets throughout the capitals of North Africa and the Middle East. Although revolution has been quelled for many years, dollar devaluation has caused prices of basic goods to soar in emerging economies like these. Young people are unemployed and face little opportunity in autocratic societies.
Tens of thousands of young, leaderless Arabs are rioting in the streets demanding an end to pro-Western leaders. Egypt’s stock market (EGPT) has been shut down as reports are showing that the rioting will intensify, and many people and businesses are fleeing the country…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Marketoracle.co.uk: A rare and exceptional opportunity has just presented itself to enter this Precious Metals bullmarket at very favorable prices for gold, silver and especially for Precious Metals stocks - right at an intermediate bottom. That is what our latest studies indicate.
While gold dropped a little lower last week than expected in the last update, it has arrived in an area of strong support above its rising 200-day moving average in a deeply oversold condition, as we can see on its 8-month chart below. Thus it is interesting to observe that a bullish candlestick pattern, known as a “Piercing Pattern”, appeared on its chart on Thursday and Friday, which frequently signifies a reversal…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Zawya.com: Is the current drop in gold prices and opportunity to buy or does it mark the end of the golden period for the safe haven commodity? That’s the billion dollar question that analysts the world over are trying to answer.
Gold prices have declined to three-month lows on renewed risk appetite among global investors encouraged by positive data coming out of some the world’s largest
economies…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Mineweb.co.za: Gold’s volatility remains low, underpins its investment attractions and the family of ETFs and derivatives continues to grow. But do ETF options suggest that some investors are losing the faith? The latest Gold Investment Digest from the World Gold Council demonstrates that gold outperformed against equities, treasuries and commodity indices in 2010, while its price volatility fell to 16%, in line with its long-term average.
The study includes a risk-adjusted chart of annualised daily return volatility against annualised returns for a selection of asset classes form the period 31 December 2009 to 31 December 2010, and, with the exception of US Treasuries, gold was the only asset that sat above the 1:1 ratio…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From WSJ: For all the talk about the runaway success of exchange-traded funds, there is at least one sector where traditional mutual funds maintain their supremacy: commodities. Over the past year, commodity mutual funds have proportionally seen roughly five times the net inflows that commodities ETFs have seen. By comparison, over the same period, stock mutual funds saw about three times the net inflows of stock ETFs on a proportional basis.
There is one notable exception: the precious-metals subsector, where ETF flows significantly outstrip those of mutual funds…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Investmentnews.com: The K-1s are coming! The K-1s are coming! Investors in hedge funds and limited partnerships are used to receiving these forms, which reflect an investor’s proportionate share of a partnership’s taxable income or loss. But this year, some investors in exchange-traded funds are going to be receiving K-1s, too. Be prepared for some major confusion.
Over the past few years, a lot of money has flowed into commodities-based ETFs, which are difficult to understand on many levels…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Efinancialnews.com: Exchange-traded funds have shrugged off the financial crisis and grown by 30% to $1.5 trillion last year – and are forecast to hit $2 trillion in 2012. Deborah Fuhr, BlackRock’s top-rated analyst of ETFs, has forecast the value will rise thanks to demand and new issues.
This would represent a rise of 34% from the $1.48 trillion in issue across the world at the start of 2011, according to her research document published this week. Five years ago the industry was worth $430m…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Dow Jones: Safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar gained in early Asia trade Monday as rioting and political pressure in Egypt threatened to escalate. Still, after an early morning rally, all three currencies were trading steady as the initial surge into safety wore down on technicals and continuing questions over the impact of the Egypt situation.
Some commodities-linked currencies, like the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, even were moving higher in recent trade, partly reflecting the impact on commodities prices that instability in Egypt could create…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Reuters: China will permit designated banks to trade yuan/foreign currency swaps on behalf of their clients starting March 1, the country’s foreign exchange regulator said.
Non-bank clients will be allowed to sign agreements now and exchange the yuan and foreign currencies, together with their interest rates, at a future time, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement published on its website, www.safe.gov.cn. late on Sunday…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Dailymarkets.com: In a move that provides a glimpse of the future of US dollar and gold, China has allowed its currency to be traded for the first time in the United States. This is a bullish sign for gold investors. It is an important step in the country’s plan to make the renminbi an international currency.
The explicit move is an endorsement by Beijing since the state-controlled Bank of China Ltd is at the forefront of this development…………………………………….Full Article: Source
Posted on 31 January 2011 by VRS | Email |Print
From Zawya.com: Analysts look at where the dollar is headed in 2011 and what it means for investors. Dubai Trade and currency disputes coupled with the US government’s massive budget deficit might have a dampening effect on the US dollar, the legal tender in which many expatriates move their savings around the world. But that’s one view. There are others who believe the greenback will strengthen.
Gulf News spoke to analysts about where they think the US dollar is headed this year, and what it means for those UAE investors sophisticated enough to play the currency markets…………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Telegraph: Carbon allowances, Europe’s main weapon against climate change, have an impact on every household, yet the scheme is open to fraudsters and profiteers. Within a few clicks of a computer mouse, stolen goods worth €28m (£24m) had bounced from the Czech Republic to Poland, Estonia and Liechtenstein before disappearing.
Distracting local regulators with a fake bomb scare, thieves behind the heist had made off with 500,000 carbon allowances – intangible products worth around €14 each that are the European Union’s main weapon against climate change…………………………………….Full Article: Source
Posted on 28 January 2011 by VRS | Email |Print
From Cnbc.com: Despite the recent price volatility, and tightening measures from China and India, renowned global investor Jim Rogers says commodities are where you should be putting your money. “If the world economy gets better, commodities are going to make a fortune. If the world economy does not get better, commodities are the place to be because they are going to print more money, and that’s how you protect yourself,” Rogers said.
He is not expecting oil to hit the psychological $150 mark in the near term but says the prices will stay high……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Bloomberg: A decade-long boom in commodities may last “a couple of years” longer before supply catches up with demand, billionaire investor George Soros said. The S&P GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities has more than tripled since the end of 1999 as mining companies, energy producers and farmers failed to keep pace with consumption.
While the gauge slumped 43 percent in 2008 amid a global recession, it has jumped 81 percent since the end of that year……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Businessinsider.com: A recent strategy notes from Goldman’s commodities team says the bull market is far from over and commodities could rally almost 20% this year: “Although commodities overall have performed extremely well since the end of November, what has been notable is the performance of the more cyclical commodities like oil and copper, which joined the rally in agricultural commodities even as gold prices faltered.
This is the first time since the summer of 2009 that gold did not lead the commodity complex higher on a sustained basis, which highlights the substantial changes that have occurred in the global financial landscape in recent months as the US economic recovery has shifted onto a much more solid footing……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Bloomberg: Commodity assets under management rose to a record $376 billion last year, boosted by demand from institutional investors, Barclays Capital said.
New investments in December were $10.9 billion, the highest since February 2009, analysts Suki Cooper, Roxana Mohammadian Molina, Kevin Norrish and Amrita Sen said today in a report. Inflows for the year reached $62 billion, Barclays said……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Cnbc.com: If you own the stocks with lots of commodity exposure—meaning commodity consumers, not producers—then be forewarned, Cramer said. Your portfolio might see the kind of action that hit Procter & Gamble on Thursday.
P&G, which needs commodities like oil to make its products, beat the Street’s earnings expectations, but the stock fell almost $2 anyway. Why? Because commodity inflation cut into the company’s gross margins—they fell 190 basis points! “That’s awful,” as Cramer described them, and a possible indication of what’s to come for the rest of 2011……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Reuters: Japanese Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said on Friday that quantitative easing by some central banks appears to be contributing to recent rises in commodity prices by feeding fund inflows into commodity markets.
Commodity price surges are undesirable if they are driven by speculative moves, he told a news conference after a cabinet meeting……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Bivinteractive.com: The commodities market ended 2010 on a high note, which is good news for resource companies heading into 2011. According to a Scotiabank commodity price index report released Thursday, price trends in 32 of Canada’s major exports jumped 5.5% in December compared with the month before – and the trend has continued into 2011 with China continuing to demand natural resources.
“While prices retreated on January 20 after news China’s GDP grew by a faster-than-expected 9.8% in 2010:Q4, up from 9.6% in Q3, suggesting the need to tighten monetary policy further to stem inflation, we continue to believe that China’s economy will expand at a healthy clip in 2011,” commented Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank’s vice-president economics……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Bloomberg: Commodities traders should be subject to position limits to curb food price volatility, Michel Barnier, the EU’s financial services chief, said.
“I personally think that we should restrict positions so an investor can’t monopolize too big a share of the market,” Barnier told reporters in Brussels today. “I didn’t wait to see proof to start to act.”………………………………………Full Article: Source
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From Reuters: G20-leader France will make concrete proposals to regulate commodity derivative markets, despite its recent focus on ways to make physical trade more transparent, farm ministry sources said on Thursday.
France will propose including position limits, identifying commodity players as either speculative or commercial, while also seeking a framework to record over-the-counter, or non-exchange, trades, the sources said……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Mineweb.co.za: Recent market activity actually strengthens the case for a sharp snapback in the metal’s price and new all-time highs later this year. January has been a difficult month for gold, so much so that many market mavens - analysts and investors alike - are abandoning their bullish expectations.
From its year-end 2010 price near $1,420 an ounce to its recent low just over $1,320 gold has so far shed some $100 - about seven percent. Measured from its all-time high just over $1,432 in early December, the recent decline is less than eight percent. Either way, in percentage terms, this doesn’t amount to much of a correction in the metal’s 10-year old bull market……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Indiatimes.com: The price-conscious Indian consumer did not shy away from splurging on gold jewellery despite a 24% increase in the metal’s price in 2010 from a year ago, tipping the country to exhibit the strongest consumption recovery from the low levels of 2009, an industry body has said.
“At the country level, India, the largest gold market, is poised to exhibit the strongest recovery during 2010,” said the World Gold Council in its Gold Investment Demand digest for 2010……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Marketoracle.co.uk: Kirbyanalytics subscribers received the following fast blast appended below late Tuesday night, Jan. 25, 2011: The Thompson Reuters CRB index weighting has not changed since 2005. However, virtually all other commodities related indexes do rebalance in early Jan of every year.
For instance the $CCI consists of 17 commodity constituents – with 5.88 % of the index allotted to each commodity. It rebalances in early Jan. every year……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Hardassetsinvestor.com: Oil’s had an exciting week. How so? Well, the petroleum sector is finally sending definitive signals of an economic rebound. The indication arises from the recent downward volatility in the cost of crude oil, together with simultaneous upside pressure in refined product prices.
We’re now seeing refining profits normalize to levels not seen since spring 2009……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Bloomberg: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will boost crude shipments through to the middle of February on winter demand in the U.S. and Europe, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements.
Loadings will advance 1.4 percent to 23.67 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Feb. 12 from 23.34 million barrels in the period to Jan. 15, Oil Movements said today in a report……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Reuters: Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is pumping more oil than it reports, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Thursday despite OPEC officials’ and customers’ views that volumes were unchanged.
“We think from what we learnt in our study there’s a gap from what they report and what they produce. Is it intentionally? I don’t know. But we are simply saying that Saudi is producing more than they report,” Nobuo Tanaka told Reuters……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Businessspectator.com.au: OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia has not raised output, OPEC’s Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri said , adding the group would raise production when it sees imbalances in the market.
“According to information I receive from Saudi Arabia it is almost the same production as last month, so I don’t see any increase in Saudi Arabia,” Mr al-Badri said……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Canada.com: The rising differential in global benchmark oil prices for North Sea Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate shows the risk Canada suffers in relying too heavily on the U.S. as its major export market, says Scotiabank commodities expert Patricia Mohr.
WTI, the North American benchmark, has lagged Brent, its international counterpart, since Aug. 17 and the spread between the two has become more pronounced since, rising to a new record Thursday of $11.86 US a barrel……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Usatoday.com: Investors have poured $1 trillion into exchange traded funds, making them the fastest-growing sector of the fund industry. When should you prefer an ETF over a garden-variety mutual fund?
If you’re a money manager, you’ve probably already switched to ETFs. About half the investors in ETFs are institutional investors, such as large money managers, who use ETFs to invest new money quickly or gain exposure to more exotic areas, such as currencies and commodities……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Investorsoffshore.com: The Greenwich Composite Investable Index gained 1.88% in December to close 2010 with one of its best months of the year, Greenwich Alternative Investments has announced.
Equity markets sustained a global rally in December driven by positive economic reports and strong seasonal trends. All of the Greenwich Investable Indices moved higher on the month, with Futures and Long-Short Equity strategies exhibiting the best results……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Reuters: UK-based Fulcrum Asset Management has launched a fund designed to tap the growing demand for active commodities strategies from investors unhappy with the returns from commodity index trackers.
Institutional investors have been switching to active strategies in greater numbers as passive plays have disappointed in volatile markets……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Talkzimbabwe.com: Zimbabwe’s new commodity exchange, Commodities Exchange of Zimbabwe (Comez) is yet to start trading operations nearly two weeks after official launch. The long awaited Comez was finally launched last week after more than two years of planning.
This is a major positive step for Zimbabwe’s financial and agricultural sectors as it will greatly assist in mobilizing financial resources required in funding agricultural products and eliminate monopolies enjoyed by various entities in marketing and purchase of agricultural products……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From RTTNews: The European currency edged higher on Thursday in early trading after the European Central Bank policymaker Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said that the monetary stance should be gradually adjusted through a progressive increase in the interest rate as the economy gradually starts to grow above potential.
The ECB executive board member also warned of the risks of providing unlimited liquidity to banks over an extended period of time. He added that the expected increase in imported goods inflation cannot be ignored……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From WSJ: Mexican President Felipe Calderón warned Thursday of the dangers of currency manipulation by emerging economies, saying his government had no plans to join the growing trend.
He also pledged he wouldn’t back down from a crackdown on drug traffickers that has sharply raised the country’s murder rate……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs Group Inc., pressed by a congressionally appointed panel to describe its use of derivatives during the financial crisis, said it relied on the instruments for most mortgage trades and for revenue from commodities, interest rates and currencies.
Derivatives accounted for about 70 percent to 75 percent of revenue in the firm’s commodities business from 2006 to 2009, and “half or more” of revenue from interest rates and currencies, the firm estimated, according to a report by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Forbes: The suspension of spot trading on European carbon emission markets entered its second week Thursday, as national regulators awaited confirmation from the European Union that their security systems were up to date.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive, on Jan. 19 suspended all spot trading of carbon permits after hackers, in a spate of cyber attacks in several states, stole emission certificates worth some euro28 million ($38 million)……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Bloomberg: Carbon traders are shifting to futures from spot transactions to minimize their risks in the wake of hacking attacks that left an estimated $41 million worth of permits missing, according to Bache Commodities Ltd.
Prices and open interest in carbon futures for December delivery rose this week as prompt markets were halted by a European Union decision on Jan. 19 to close 30 national registries in response to reports of stolen allowances and security breaches……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Bloomberg: Wheat fluctuated in Chicago as some investors liquidated contracts after prices reached a five-month high on demand from North Africa, where riots broke out this month over rising food costs.
The grain gained 9.1 percent in the past two weeks as rioting in Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt sparked demand for food commodities. Algeria yesterday bought 800,000 metric tons of wheat, Reuters reported. Investors who had bet futures would rise may be capitalizing on the price gains……………………………………….Full Article: Source
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From Commodityonline.com: Global commodity prices are rising, fueled in part by speculative trading that could mark commodities as the latest asset class bubble and spur a regulatory backlash from governments keen to control the price of basic foodstuffs.
The prices of many commodities undoubtedly would have risen anyway in response to recent supply disruptions and rising demand; but it’s the outsized impact of investors leveraging on low interest rates to speculate on commodities which could prompt un-sustainable bubbles in some markets, anger consumers, and draw yet more fire from politicians on the dangers of derivatives trading……………………………………….Full Article: Source