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Commodities Briefing - Archive | December, 2009

2010, time to love commodities again

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Cnbc.com: The price of many commodities saw strong gains in 2009 with gold finding new highs and oil recovering a large chunk of its drop in the second half of 2008. But now is not the time to take commodities out of your portfolio.
It is vital that investors include commodities in their portfolio, according to Michael Yoshikami, president & chief investment strategist at YCMNet Advisors. Yoshikami likes basic consumable commodities such as corn as he thinks they will do well as the standard of living rises in emerging markets……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Commodities pay off in 2009

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Asianage.com: Though 2009 witnessed a recessionary trend for the most part of the year, the investors in commodities saw a price appreciation in the range of 44 per cent to 127 per cent.

According to commodity experts the weakness in the dollar boosted the prices of precious metals, while the rise in demand from the largest consumer China, helped the investors in base metals to earn handsome returns……………………………………Full Article: Source

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U.S. dollar and gold trends into 2010

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Marketoracle.co.uk: The dollar finally broke through resistance at 23, which has turned into support. Price is backing up and testing support.

The CCI index at the bottom of the chart has gone from overbought (+200) to 89. When an asset moves from being this overbought to back below 100, it often signals a consolidation/correction is likely……………………………………Full Article: Source

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A perfect storm for commodities coming in 2010

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Worldcurrencywatch.com: The U.S. dollar may be rallying for now and may even continue into January. But come February we are about to hit a major roadblock for the buck. Either we will find out that President Obama lied to all of us, or he will signal another major downturn in the U.S. Dollar.

Why you ask? Ah! Gather around and settle down with your cup of Joe to see what’s about to unfold……………………………………Full Article: Source

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2010: A year to have commodity shares in your portfolio

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Benzinga.com: The year 2009 saw a sharp rise in commodity prices across the world. The new highs made by gold and oil, regaining a major chunk of their previous decline, stood out in 2009. While some people may consider taking profits, this may not be the right time to do so.

With the global economy recovering and spending levels improving, living standards in the emerging economies are bound to rise in the forthcoming months. As a result, the price of consumable commodities is likely to rise……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Gold, copper, and crude - A look into 2010

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Istockanalyst.com: Let’s identify the conditions that occurred in 2009, which will lead forward into an assessment of the 2010 outlook for metals and oil. As we entered 2009, we had a major asset crash due to the events in toxic debt. In response the Fed initiates major bailout programs.
In the loosest monetary policy of modern times, interest rates collapse to a low in late 2009. Look at the interest rate collapse into the end of 2008 on the TBT chart (20 year Inverse Short Bond ETF)…………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Trend capture in commodity trading

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Marketoracle.co.uk: You do not hear that often the word trend capture in commodity trading. Most of the time it is called Trend following.
The difference however depending on how the commodity trader or commodity trading advisor trades there are times big draw downs occur as well as big profits are given back in trend following. However this has to be a given in trend following……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Gold beats commodities and stocks in the noughties

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Livemint.com: The 2000s have seen gold outperform both stocks and commodities. The outperformance hasn’t been uniform, of course. As the chart shows, crude oil did much better than gold during the boom years between 2004 and 2007 and went on to scale a spectacular peak in 2008 before collapsing.

It’s only in the last one year or so that gold has decisively done better than crude oil. The chart shows, however, that the returns from gold continued to be higher than for the Sensex till the middle of 2006, when the boom was already well advanced……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Gold prices hold up as demand exceeds supply

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Stuff.co.nz: Gold has soared to record highs and there is no shortage of those wanting to get exposure to the precious metal, but will it all end in tears for investors?

Gold shone brightly this year, but analysts are divided on whether 2010 could see some of the gloss fade……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Are speculators blowing up gold prices?

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: Will 2009 be known as the year when speculators ballooned gold prices to a historic high of $1,227 per ounce? The rise and rise of gold price in the last one year has been receiving applause from gold bugs, derision from ant-gold investors and cheers from gold speculators.
But who is right and who is wrong on gold? Is speculation the root reason for the high prices of gold?…………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Platinum climbs in gold’s shadow

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Fin24.com: Platinum, once the belle of the ball, has had a quiet year as it stood by watching its older sister gold bask in the glory that accompanied investors’ return to precious metals.

After shedding almost half of its value in 2008, platinum spent the year climbing steadily back to December 2007 levels despite weak physical demand……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Copper price hits 16-month high in London on Chilean copper strike votes

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: London copper prices rallied almost 3 percent to a 16-month peak on Tuesday after the Christmas break, chasing gains made in Shanghai over the holiday period.

Strike votes at two large Chilean copper operations, Codelco’s Chuquicamata mine and Xstrata PLC’s Altonorte smelter, are seen lifting sentiment as the year grinds to a close and investors assess what next from markets that have rallied around 140 percent this year,…………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Oil trades near $79 as heating oil climbs on forecast for cold

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Crude oil traded near $79 a barrel after rising for a fifth day on forecasts for cold weather in the U.S. and signs the economy in the world’s largest energy- consuming nation may be recovering.

Crude climbed 10 cents to $78.87 a barrel yesterday as heating oil rose to a two-month high on the outlook for below- normal temperatures and as U.S. consumer confidence improved in December for a second month……………………………………Full Article: Source

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World demand for oil has dropped: OPEC

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Bernama: World oil production demand has dropped for the first time since the early 1980’s for the second successive year, as the world economy remains confronted with the deepest and most wide-spread contraction sin since the 1940’s, the Namibian Press Agency (Nampa) reported Tuesday.

This observation was made at the 155th extra-ordinary meeting of the conference of the Organisation of Petroleum and Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) that took place in the Angolan capital, Luanda last week……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Indonesia will not rejoin OPEC until 2014

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Tempointeractive.com: Indonesia will not rejoin the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the next five years.

The decision to rejoin OPEC, said the Director General of Oil and Gas Evita Herawati Legowo, is influenced by domestic oil production levels……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Russia and Ukraine sign oil transfer deal

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From BBC: Russia has signed an oil transit deal with Ukraine, apparently ending a threat to cut supplies to EU countries.

Moscow has agreed to a 30% increase in the transit tariff for oil piped to Europe through Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s state energy firm Naftogaz……………………………………Full Article: Source

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South Korea’s emissions rise

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From UPI: South Korea’s carbon dioxide emissions increased 2.9 percent — totaling 620 million tons — in 2007, the government announced Monday, Xinhua reports.

That represents the highest growth rate since 2002 and is nearly three times faster than the growth rate in 2006. It is also a 103-percent increase from 1990 greenhouse gas emission totals……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Environment preview of 2010

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Telegraph: Already Gordon Brown is pushing for another meeting of world leaders to sort out the mess as soon as possible. However he is dead set against the UN process that ended in such confusion last time.
Instead it is likely that high level meetings, many behind closed doors, will be held throughout the year under the guise of the Major Economies Forum, G8 and other groupings……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Ten most successful new ETFs of 2009

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Etfdb.com: As the ETF industry has continued its rapid expansion, there has been much debate surrounding the sustainability of the current growth and the potential saturation of the market.
The first ETFs were relatively simple products, offering exposure to the world’s most widely-followed equity benchmarks. But the last ten years have seen hundreds of new ETFs hit the market that go far beyond “plain vanilla.” …………………………………..Full Article: Source

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The definitive guide to cotton ETF investing

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Etfdb.com: To most, cotton is a part of everyday life, a part of the textiles found in every wardrobe. But after prices surged in 2009, some investors have begun making cotton a part of their portfolio as well, and are turning to cotton ETFs as a way to gain exposure.
While this soft commodity has the potential to deliver big gains and add diversification benefits, it comes with a fair amount of risk as well……………………………………Full Article: Source

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US dollar firms on US recovery signs

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Channelnewsasia.com: The US dollar strengthened against the euro on Tuesday, lifted by US data suggesting the world’s biggest economy is slowly emerging from the worst recession in decades.

The European single currency traded at 1.4354 dollars at 2300 GMT, down from 1.4376 dollars late Monday……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Top economist at CFTC to leave

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From WSJ: Jeffrey Harris, the chief economist at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission who last year said he could find no direct link between speculation and high energy prices, is leaving the agency and returning to academia.

Mr. Harris’s departure comes at a critical time for the CFTC, which plans to unveil a major proposal to impose new trading limits on crude oil and other energy futures products……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Agriculture futures trade mixed on the CBOT

Posted on 30 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Washingtonpost.com: Agriculture futures were mixed Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade. Wheat for March delivery dropped 9.75 cents to $5.41 a bushel, while March corn rose 1 cent to $4.17 a bushel and oats for March delivery added 4 cents to $2.69 a bushel.

January soybeans climbed 9 cents to $10.38 a bushel. Meanwhile, beef futures traded lower and pork futures were mixed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange……………………………………Full Article: Source

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Which way for commodities in 2010?

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From BBC: After a year of soaring commodity prices, next year is expected to see further increases, financial firms are predicting. But the price rises will not be universal and the gains made by investors will probably be lower than they have been in recent months.

“In the first quarter of 2010, more buying is anticipated by consumers and institutional funds increasing their allocation to commodities,” predicts Investec in a research note……………………………………Full Article: Source

2009 commodities round-up

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Iii.co.uk: It’s been nothing short of a rollercoaster ride for commodities in 2009, with oil struggling to rouse itself from a deep low, while gold smashed through new highs to become the real success story of the sector.

Following on from highs of $147 a barrel in July 2008, oil prices took a sharp hit at the start of this year and averaged just $42 in the first quarter - sending investors reeling and oil companies fighting for their life……………………………………Full Article: Source

Commodities take safe haven status this year

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Zawya.com: The year 2009 saw investors flocking to commodities as other forms of alternative investments - real estate in particular faced one of the worst years ever.

Gold rose to historic highs this year, outpacing the most affirmative of predictions. The metal has gained 25 per cent this year, touching a record $1,227.5 an ounce earlier this month…………………………………..Full Article: Source

More gains for Agribusiness stocks in 2010?

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Hardassetsinvestor.com: Although the widely followed S&P 500 Composite was the yardstick used to score the market’s nadir, that doesn’t mean that every issue in the index bottomed on March 6. Take agribusiness stocks, for example.
Of the five biggest domestically traded components of the DAXglobal Agribusiness Index—the benchmark tracked by the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF—only one scraped its pan in March. The rest actually started pulling up in late 2008, well ahead of the broader market……………………………………Full Article: Source

U.S. commodities funds files for new diversified ETF

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Indexuniverse.com: U.S. Commodity Funds, best known for its $2.2 billion U.S. Oil Fund and $3.8 billion U.S. Natural Gas Fund, has filed paperwork with the SEC to launch a new diversified commodities index ETF, based on an index created by SummerHaven Index Management.

The fund will track the newly launched SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Index (SDCI), an actively managed commodities futures index that has positions in energy, precious and industrial metals, and agricultural commodities, including livestock, grains and softs. It is the firm’s first index……………………………………Full Article: Source

Ten predictions for 2010: Economy, dollar, gold

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Resourceinvestor.com: It has been said that “the only thing constant is change.” While this is true, the rate of that change is anything but constant. If you pause to reflect on how rapidly things are changing all around us, you will realize that momentum is building and the change is picking up pace.

While some may view this phenomenon with fear, I welcome it and believe that although difficult times are ahead, the accelerating change provides an opportunity to transition into a better societal structure……………………………………Full Article: Source

Debate over dollar’s rise as commodities mark new highs

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Barrons: Commodities strengthened broadly as the dollar sank against most major currencies, with observers wondering whether a dollar rally since November will last.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index was off 0.2% at 78.05, though the dollar appreciated against the Euro to $1.438……………………………………Full Article: Source

Commodity prices pose big risk in 2010

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Indonesia can look back at 2009 as a major outperformer, being one of the few countries in the world where gross domestic product expanded over the year.

The structure of the economy, which isn’t overly dependent on exports, clearly helped. The government’s efforts to protect the most vulnerable social groups through its cash handouts and support to businesses through tax measures — all equivalent to 1.6 percent of GDP — were key to the success……………………………………Full Article: Source

China’s commodity imports continue to soar

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Thehindubusinessline.com: With its voracious appetite for a whole range of commodities including energy products, base metals and precious metals, as well as agriculture, China continues to amaze the global commodity market participants.

In no small measure has the Asian major’s import demand for a wide variety of commodities to meet its internal consumption requirement been a key driver of the remarkable recovery the markets have witnessed in recent months……………………………………Full Article: Source

Chinese dragon to eat up more metals in 2010

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: Chinese metals demand is expected to be on the upside in 2010, with experts predicting strong gains for mining equities.

According to analysts, mining equities are set to storm through the 2010 earnings season driven by strong gains from commodities, currencies and rationalisation gains mainly coming from the United States and China. The commodities prices too are all set to rise further on the back of global recovery from the credit crisis……………………………………Full Article: Source

Gold is the decade’s best performer

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: The statistics show that gold has outperformed virtually all other asset classes over the past ten years despite permanent talking down by the gold skeptics.
What the next decade will bring for gold? Who knows. But we do know one thing - those who held gold for the past 10 years will have a happier New Year than those who listened to the perma-skeptics……………………………………Full Article: Source

Gold bubble debate: Is it wise to invest in gold?

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: As 2009 is heading for a close, traders, investors and analysts are in the midst of mixed feelings of hope, dejection and euphoria.
2009 was not a bad year for investors in stocks and commodities compared to the year 2008 when we were bombarded with bank failures and the global economy teetering on the brink of collapse……………………………………Full Article: Source

The current bull market in gold is far from over. In fact it is only beginning.

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: As we see the end of another year, and even though the price of gold has come off its highs of over $1225, the price gold gained some 30% this year.
Now, as the dollar rebounds from it’s lows, and as most equity analyst are looking for global equities to continue upwards, there is talk that gold has made it’s high……………………………………Full Article: Source

Price correction in bullion likely by 2011

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Business-standard.com: Where will gold be in New Year? You have as many price forecasts for the metal as there are experts. But, in terms of volatility, gold beats any other commodity by a long margin, the experts without an exception admit they are treading on a high risk ground while making a price forecast.
True, in the gold’s journey from a low of $220 an ounce in 1999 to the record price of $1,225 on December 3, the precious metal went through quite a few hair raising roller coaster rides……………………………………Full Article: Source

Saudi King Abdullah ’satisfied with oil price’

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From AFP: Saudi king Abdullah described oil prices as satisfactory in an interview published on Saturday, at a time when the largest OPEC producer is seeking price stability.

“We predicted an oil price of 75 to 80 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the year, what we considered acceptable, and now it has reached this level,” the king told the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Siyassah……………………………………Full Article: Source

Crude market fundamentals point to a weaker 2010

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Zawya.com: Now is the time to take a quick look at the year that has almost gone by — 2009. From the crude oil point of view, it has been a roller coaster year. Interestingly, the oil markets during the year mirrored the previous decade rolled into 12 months.

Only a decade ago in December 1999, oil markets slid toward the then-unthinkable barrier of $10 a barrel and respected publications such as The Economist predicted that crude would sink below $5 and stay there……………………………………Full Article: Source

China amendment to boost renewable energy

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From UPI: China adopted an amendment to its renewable energy law Saturday that requires utilities to buy all the power produced by generators of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.

Power enterprises that refuse to do so will face fines up to an amount double that of the economic loss of the renewable energy company, state-run news agency Xinhua reports……………………………………Full Article: Source

S Korea to start carbon emissions trading late next year

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Xinhua: South Korea announced Monday it will launch a pilot greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme as early as late next year in a bid to encourage carbon emissions reduction.
The Ministry of Environment said in a statement the Korea Exchange (KRX), the country’s bourse, will serve as a platform for carbon emissions trading, also known as cap and trade, starting as early as late next year……………………………………Full Article: Source

No need for China yuan to fall -c.bank adviser

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Reuters: There is no reason for China’s yuan to depreciate against any currency, including the dollar, euro or yen, an adviser to its central bank said on Monday, highlighting the polarised nature of debate on the currency.

Fan Gang’s comments come a day after Premier Wen Jiabao struck a defiant note about the country’s exchange rate policy, saying that although the yuan was facing growing pressure to appreciate, Beijing is committed to keeping it stable……………………………………Full Article: Source

Korea: Currency swap fund due in March

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Koreaherald.co.kr: The government said yesterday Korea, China and Japan, and 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have agreed to launch a $120 billion multilateral currency swap program, known as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization, on March 24, 2010.

The Ministry of Strategy and Finance said finance ministers and central bank governors of the 13 participating countries were finished signing on the CMIM by Dec. 24……………………………………Full Article: Source

Palladium, platinum ETFs closer to reality

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Etfdb.com: Platinum and palladium prices jumped to recent highs last week on news that regulators had taken an important step towards allowing London-based ETF Securities (ETFS) to list physically-backed ETFs linked to the metals to trade on U.S. exchanges.
“The Securities and Exchange Commission in the past week approved proposed rule changes from the New York Stock Exchange’s NYSE Arca platform for listing and trading of shares of ETFS Platinum Trust and ETFS Palladium Trust,” writes Allen Sykora……………………………………Full Article: Source

Gold mining funds outperform ETFs in 2009

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Israelidiamond.co.il: Gold prices were often in the news this year due to its upward movements. However, investors who wanted to piggyback on the firm trend should have chosen global gold funds rather than the gold ETFs.

Funds that invest in gold mining stocks (which underperformed gold ETFs in 2008) staged a sharp recovery in 2009. The rebound in world equity markets and safe-haven buying in gold led by dollar’s value depreciation fuelled the run-ups in gold stocks……………………………………Full Article: Source

ETF outlook: 2010 will be hot. Don’t get burned

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Dailyfinance.com: Providers of exchange-traded funds and notes had a strong 2009 and the new year is shaping up to bring more of the same. But what’s good for ETF companies isn’t necessarily good for investors.

Not only did these cheap, liquid and tax-advantaged investment vehicles set a new record, reaching more than $750 billion in assets under management as of Nov. 30, according to the National Stock Exchange, but the first actively managed ETFs opened for business……………………………………Full Article: Source

Goldman Sachs looks to enter ETF industry

Posted on 29 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Etfdb.com: Goldman Sachs has filed for approval with the Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a line of exchange-traded funds, seeking to become the latest financial giant to into the industry.
According to the 40-APP filing, Goldman’s initial fund will “offer an extensive representation of the Brazilian, Indian, Chinese and Korean markets by targeting all companies with a market capitalization within the top 85% of their investable equity universe.” Goldman estimates that the fund would consist of approximately 300 to 450 constituents……………………………………Full Article: Source

Commodities trader plans GBP21.9bln float

Posted on 24 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Dailymail.co.uk: Secretive Switzerland-based commodities trader Glencore started laying the groundwork for a possible £21.9billion-plus flotation with the £1.4billion sale of bonds that could be converted into shares.

A stock market listing would net hefty windfalls for management and employees who own the company…………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Glencore IPO closer after GBP2bln fund-raising

Posted on 24 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Telegraph: Glencore, the secretive Swiss-based natural resources group, faces up to $500m (£313m) in punitive charges if it does not float or merge with another company by 2013. Glencore is one of the world’s largest producers and traders of commodities and raw materials.
In exchange for the cash injection, Glencore has agreed to work towards an initial public offer (IPO) or merger within three years…………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Opportunities in agriculture and soft commodities

Posted on 24 December 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Seekingalpha.com: We think one of the big themes in 2010 will be investments in agriculture and soft commodities. We feel that due to the unique supply/demand dynamics of these markets, a normalization of global growth will result in relatively large price increases.
The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has recovered to levels around the 500 point mark, compared to about 350 points at the trough…………………………………..Full Article: Source

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