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Commodities Briefing - Archive | November, 2009

Carbon trading could be worth twice that of oil in next decade

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Guardian: The carbon market could become double the size of the vast oil market, according to the new breed of City players who trade greenhouse gas emissions through the EU’s emissions trading scheme.

The ETS market may see $3tn (£1.8tn) worth of transactions a year in the next decade or two, according to Andrew Ager, head of emissions trading at Bache Commodities in London, with it even being used as a hedge against falling equities or rising inflation……………………………Full Article: Source

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European Climate Exchange chief Patrick Birley defends the carbon trading system

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Telegraph: People don’t trade carbon because they are good people,” exclaims Patrick Birley, the chief executive of the ICE European Climate Exchange, with characteristic bluntness. “Why should it be different as a commodity to the way people trade oil or gas?”

As the man in charge of the world’s biggest exchange for companies, banks and hedge funds to trade permits to emit carbon dioxide, Birley is fed up with the environmentalists’ charge that dirty capitalists should not profit from the global effort to tackle climate change…………………………..Full Article: Source

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Carbon will mature as inflation hedge

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Malaya.com.ph: The $126 billion global carbon market will mature so that investors will use it as a hedge against equities and inflation, Bache Commodities Ltd.’s emissions trading head told Reuters in an interview.

Crude oil or gold have often been used to hedge against inflation risk or equities, as investors believe they can offer some protection against rising consumer prices……………………………Full Article: Source

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The next commodities boom? How carbon dioxide may earn, not cost

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Istockanalyst.com: Why do nations including the U.S. seem hell bent on spending hundreds of billions of dollars trying to develop commercial-scale carbon capture and sequestration technology (CCS) – while spending very little on developing technology for converting CO2 into a useful product?

Wake up, Mr. Obama. You just hit the jackpot. Your own Sandia National Laboratories just made a breakthrough that has the potential to convert CO2 into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel on a commercial scale and at a reasonable price……………………………Full Article: Source

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Dubai debt woes deliver commodities wake-up call

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From WSJ: Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt delivered a wake-up call to commodities investors who have been flocking to gold, copper and oil.

The specter of default by Dubai World, the investment arm of the government, has highlighted the fragility of the economic recovery and prompted investors to exit commodities and seek a safe haven in other assets……………………………Full Article: Source

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Commodity can be a wise bet for the long term

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Dnaindia: The commodity market holds importance for an investor as it offers yet another means to diversify.
However, the presence of larger lot sizes (in case of some commodities) in trading along with comparative unsteady flow of information, absence of freely available research makes it difficult for retail investors to enter this sphere……………………………Full Article: Source

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Four commodities you should avoid in 2010

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Telegraph: The global economy has staged a tentative recovery, but in the year to date, copper is up 111pc, lead is up 114pc, gold is up 33pc and zinc is up 76pc following their pummelling in the fourth quarter of 2008.

This is in part due to a slow recovery in the growth engines of the world, but it is mostly down to the fact that commodities were oversold as investors took flight from assets deemed as risky……………………………Full Article: Source

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Gold tumbles on Dubai debacle, but investor interest to stay positive

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Thehindubusinessline.com: Whether another contagion is in the making is unclear at present, but last week’s financial crisis with Dubai as the epicenter surely stoked fears of a possible repeat of what happened last year beginning with the subprime crisis in the US. Broad market confidence has surely stood shaken.
Commodity markets across the spectrum were affected even as investors were quick to exit long positions……………………………Full Article: Source

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Gold acquires new investment aura

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Telegraph: When HSBC closes its vaults to hundreds of American gold bugs (investors) next July, it will be shutting the door on one of the fastest growing trends in the investment community.
Although the British-based bank has decided to stop retail investors depositing the shiny stuff at its New York vaults in favour of storing gold for higher paying institutional customers, it has not stopped the rest of the world from clamouring to join the gold rush……………………………Full Article: Source

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Roger Wiegand: $2,960 gold on the horizon?

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Theaureport.com: TraderTracks editor Roger sees the makings of some “pretty exciting” action in precious metals front, forecasting that gold could go beyond $2,960, and with the next big drop in the stock market, the gold and silver shares could really depart from the rest of the mainstream market, especially with the dollar being so weak.
He likes companies that have good projects and strong partners, and cash in the bank……………………………Full Article: Source

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Chinese to become world’s biggest gold consumers

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Timesonline.co.uk: China is poised to vault ahead of India and become the world’s biggest gold consumer as small investors scramble to defend their wealth against inflation and a ballooning middle class falls in love with the “portable bank vault” of jewellery.

The country’s rumbling hunger for gold is expected to grow in coming weeks amid predictions that the People’s Bank of China could join other emerging market central banks by becoming a significant buyer of bullion for its reserves……………………………Full Article: Source

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China 2009 gold demand, output may gain to records

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: China, the world’s largest gold producer, may break records for both demand and output this year as jewelry consumption soars and miners expand production after prices reached all-time highs, according to the China Gold Association.

Gold demand may be more than 450 metric tons compared with 395.6 tons in 2008, and output may climb to 310 tons, compared with 282 tons a year earlier, Zhang Yongtao, deputy secretary- general of the association, said at a conference in Kunming yesterday……………………………Full Article: Source

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India can become gold trading hub

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Deccanchronicle.com: The Dubai debt crisis will have no impact on the gold prices. We at All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation (GJF) had predicted one year ago that gold trading in Dubai will become a problem because there is much more gold trading happening in India and China, compared to Dubai.
The government has signed an agreement with Asean countries to allow the transit of gold through these Asean countries at zero duties from 2012……………………………Full Article: Source

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Gold sparkles in ‘perfect storm’ for precious metal: analysts

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Omanobserver.com: Gold prices have rocketed to record heights close to $1,200 an ounce as a “perfect storm” of market conditions propels demand for the precious metal, analysts said.
Gold, whose two main drivers are jewellery and investment buyers, hit a record $1,195.13 an ounce on the London Bullion Market on Thursday…………………………..Full Article: Source

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Big players get physical with gold

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Europac.net: Over past years, we at Euro Pacific have taken an increasingly jaundiced view of paper currencies and written repeatedly about gold as an alternative.
Along the way, we have urged investors to consider both the security and physical accessibility of their gold investments, and have advocated for at least some holdings to be in physical form. There are those who may have felt our views were overly cautious, even alarmist……………………………Full Article: Source

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Buy palladium and silver, not gold: Jim Rogers

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: Will gold price cross the magical $1200 per ounce mark this week? That must be the big question that bullion analysts and gold traders are asking now. Will the Dubai debt crisis hit or help gold price?

Is it the right time to buy gold? Or should you wait for the yellow metal prices to depress for the right buying opportunity? Investors like Jim Rogers say that buying gold at $1200 may not be a bad idea, as he has been forecasting that gold is set for a historic $2000 mark in the next decade that begins in 2010……………………………Full Article: Source

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Iron ore is at historic crossroads

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Theaustralian.com.au: Andrew Forrest is his typical ebullient self as he tells an audience of institutional investors the iron ore industry is at an “historic crossroads”.

But this time he has a truly spectacular setting to ram home his point. It is less the vast, starry sky of a warm Pilbara night and more what lies under his feet……………………………Full Article: Source

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Ernst & Young AIM mining index up 36 pct in Q3

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Forbes: Ernst & Young said its index of the top 20 mining companies on London’s junior Alternative Investment Market rose 36 percent over the third quarter, but that exploration firms continued to face funding problems.

‘In their most recent trading updates a number of companies continued to warn that unless funding is forthcoming — and quickly — they would be unable to meet debt repayments or to finance their overheads, let alone their exploration activities,’ said Tim Williams, director of mining and metals……………………………Full Article: Source

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Oil rises on U.A.E. backing for Dubai’s banks, weaker dollar

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Crude oil rose in New York after the United Arab Emirates’ central bank said it “stands behind” the country’s banks, easing concerns about a possible default by Dubai World.

Oil gained as much as 0.9 percent after the Abu Dhabi-based U.A.E. central bank said yesterday banks will be able to borrow using a special facility tied to their current accounts……………………………Full Article: Source

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James Hamilton: The fundamentals of oil shocks

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Istockanalyst.com: Speculators take most of the heat for the recent oil spike, but were they really to blame for last year’s high prices? Probably not, says Dr. James Hamilton, who argues that supply and demand, not speculators, were behind oil’s 2008 rise.

A professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, Dr. Hamilton co-authors the popular blog, Econbrowser, where he analyzes current economic policy decisions and conditions……………………………Full Article: Source

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Iran sees no reason for OPEC output change

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Tehrantimes.com: Iran’s representative to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says there is no valid justification for the group to change its oil production targets.

“Considering the current supply and demand situation in the oil market, it is likely that OPEC maintain the quota at a forthcoming meeting in December, should conditions be met,” Iran’s OPEC governor Mohammad-Ali Khatibi told Mehr news agency on Saturday……………………………Full Article: Source

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Currency will stay stable, says China

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Chinadaily.com.cn: China will maintain the stability of its currency while increasing the yuan’s flexibility in controllable, gradual steps, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said yesterday during a meeting with European Union (EU) financial chiefs.

Wen held talks with Euro Group President and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday in Nanjing. Also at the meeting were European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia……………………………Full Article: Source

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EU unlikely to sway China on currency

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Irishtimes.com: Only days after US president Barack Obama left Beijing without a commitment from China to let the yuan exchange rate strengthen, EU leaders looked set to go home empty-handed after trying to convince China of the benefits of a stronger yuan against the euro.

Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao, ahead of talks today in the eastern city of Nanjing, stuck to the line that China would gradually increase the flexibility of the yuan’s exchange rate……………………………Full Article: Source

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What is Dubai Mercantile Exchange?

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Gulfnews.com: The Dubai Mercantile Exchange Limited (DME) is the premier international energy futures and commodities exchange in the Middle East, providing a financially secure, well-regulated and transparent trading environment.

Majority owned by core shareholders Tatweer (a member of Dubai Holding), Oman Investment Fund (OIF) and CME Group, the DME also released an equity stake of up to 20 per cent in August 2008 to a strategic investor group including leading global financial institutions and energy trading firms such as Casa Trading, Concord Energy, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Shell and Vitol……………………………Full Article: Source

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Dubai to host diamond bourses’ talks as demand for commodity seen to rise 25%

Posted on 30 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Saudigazette.com.sa: In a move to strengthen its position as a growing centre of diamond trade, Dubai will host the Presidents’ Meeting of the World Federation of Diamond Bourses (WFDB) in 2011, Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) said recently.
The 2011 Presidents’ Meeting will be hosted by Dubai Diamond Exchange, following the 2010 World Diamond Congress in Moscow in July next year……………………………Full Article: Source

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China’s latest commodity boom: The price also stinks

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Economist.com: Worries about overheating in China usually focus on obvious candidates: property in big cities, mainland stockmarkets and so forth. On November 25th China tightened the rules on foreign-currency transfers by individuals in a bid to control flows of hot money into the country.
But signs of frothiness are also cropping up in odd places: garlic has become an unlikely target for Chinese speculators……………………………Full Article: Source

Gold dips after hitting all-time high

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Ninemsn.com.au: Gold dipped on Thursday after hitting a new all-time high while crude oil fell and base metals retreated as risk appetite weakened with US investors absent for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Bullion eased 0.6 per cent to $1,183 a troy ounce after hitting a record $1,194.90 earlier in the session, helped by fresh investor inflows and central bank buying……………………………Full Article: Source

Profit taking brings gold price back from the brink

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: Eastern market buying , following news of yet another Central Bank IMF gold purchase - this time a relatively small amount - 10 tonnes (by Sri Lanka) kept gold surging up to over $1195 an ounce, just short of yet another round figure psychological barrier, before profit taking in Europe came in as markets opened and dropped the price back around $10-15.
With the U.S. market closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, gold is likely to remain thinly traded until Monday at the earliest. It will be interesting to see the U.S. take on the gold price level when traders get back to their offices……………………………Full Article: Source

Gold price roars near $1,200 – Is next gold move lower?

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Goldalert.com: The gold price rose to an all-time high of $1,195 per ounce early this morning as the rush to gain exposure to the gold price showed no signs of abating.
COMEX gold futures posted a record close for the ninth consecutive day and have closed higher for a remarkable 17 out of the past 18 trading days……………………………Full Article: Source

Gold Price: Will Jim Rogers beat Nouriel Roubini?

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: Gold is on fire. Bullion traders, central banks and speculators are excited. India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, that purchased 200 tonnes of gold for $1045 per ounce from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reaped a profit of more than $800 million in one month! Huge money that a central bank can make in just one month, indeed!

All these have catapulted gold to a record high of $1180 per ounce. And bullion traders and analysts are predicting that gold will zoom to $1200 by Friday……………………………Full Article: Source

Reasons why gold may reach mind-boggling levels

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Resourceinvestor.com: We are staring at a nascent but potentially and probably startling increase in the price of gold and precious metals mining stocks and warrants.
Gold will reach mind- boggling levels because the actions of our political leaders and their academic and credentialed enablers are virtually guaranteeing it with their current actions……………………………Full Article: Source

Record gold cools wedding season demand in India

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Gold imports by India, the biggest buyer, slumped for the seventh month as jewelers and housewives shunned bullion because of record prices, a traders’ group said.

Purchases so far this month totaled about 18 tons compared with 34 tons a year ago, said Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association Ltd., citing preliminary data……………………………Full Article: Source

India November gold imports half of 2008 level-trade body

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Reuters: India’s gold imports so far in November are 15-18 tonnes, around half of the 34 tonnes in November 2008 as record prices hurt demand in the world’s biggest market for the metal, the head of a leading trade body said.
On Thursday, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX)were at 17,815 rupees ($383) per 10 grams, up 38 percent from a year ago, and in global markets gold XAU= hit a record high of $1,194.90 an ounce……………………………Full Article: Source

Crude oil prices drop as traders take profits

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From AFP: World oil prices fell Thursday on profit-taking after a strong rally the previous day on the back of positive US data and the weak dollar, analysts said.

New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for January delivery, retreated 1.01 dollars to 76.95 dollars a barrel……………………………Full Article: Source

Oil slides with ample supplies in storage for winter demand

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Oil fell in New York on speculation that inventories at a four-week high will be adequate to meet U.S. fuel demand this winter.

Crude stockpiles increased to 337.8 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 20 and distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, were 26 percent above the five-year average, the Energy Department said in a report yesterday……………………………Full Article: Source

Russia unveils $2 trln energy growth plan to 2030

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Russia plans to invest up to $625 billion over the next two decades to raise oil production by about 10 percent and a further $590 billion to add at least 33 percent to its gas output, the Energy Ministry said on Thursday.
The oil and gas investment, part of a $2 trillion plus plan to develop the Russian energy sector by 2030, also envisages Asian markets taking a much larger share of Russia’s exports as the country develops resource fields in Siberia and the Far East……………………………Full Article: Source

China’s climate pledge to meet a quarter of global needs: IEA

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From AFP: China’s pledge on greenhouse gases means it would shoulder more than a quarter of the CO2 emissions cuts needed to avoid dangerous global warming, a top economist said Thursday.

“China alone would be responsible for more than 25 percent of the reductions the world needs” to limit planetary warming to 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA)……………………………Full Article: Source

China sets first targets to curb world’s largest carbon footprint

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Guardian: The Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao, will attend the Copenhagen climate talks next month, the government said today, as it unveiled firm targets for curbing the world’s biggest carbon footprint for the first time.

A day after the US president, Barack Obama, confirmed he would attend the early stages of the conference, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Qin Gang, said Wen would join the gathering, which aims to set a global strategy for reducing emissions……………………………Full Article: Source

Australia’s carbon trading scheme in jeopardy

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Monstersandcritics.com: Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s chances of having legislation for a carbon trading scheme through Parliament before next month’s climate conference in Copenhagen was placed in jeopardy Thursday by a mutiny within the opposition Liberal Party.

Rudd needs just seven Liberal members of the upper house, the Senate, to vote with the Labor government to have rules for a European-style cap-and-trade scheme on the books before parliament breaks up for the Christmas holidays……………………………Full Article: Source

Canada’s PM to join climate talks in Copenhagen

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From AFP: Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will attend international climate talks next month, his office said Thursday, as 3,000 scientists pressed Ottawa to seek a deal on deeper CO2 emissions cuts.

A spokesman for Harper told AFP he will travel to Copenhagen for the December 7-18 climate talks, but a travel date has not yet been set……………………………Full Article: Source

Sterling slides on Dubai debt concerns

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Reuters: Sterling fell on Thursday, hitting its weakest in a month against the euro and a basket of currencies, on worries about British banks’ potential exposure to debt problems in Dubai.

Dubai’s shock move on Wednesday to restructure Dubai World, and delay repayment on some of the company’s $59 billion of liabilities, sent ripples through financial markets, denting equities and riskier currencies. …………………………..Full Article: Source

EU will press China to allow yuan to rise

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From WSJ: Top European officials will press China this weekend to allow its currency to rise against the euro, amid political fears that the euro’s strength could undermine Europe’s recovery from its worst recession in decades.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, euro-zone finance minister Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker and European Economic Commissioner Joaquin Almunia are due to meet Sunday with top officials from China’s central bank and finance ministry in Nanjing, where they will lobby for a stronger Chinese yuan……………………………Full Article: Source

Commodities exchange in the works

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Chosun.com: The government plans to establish a commodities exchange to promote transparent transactions of gold, raw materials and carbon emission credits by as early as 2011. Where it will be built remains undecided.

The government on Wednesday said a private-public taskforce will be formed to set up the exchange, a decision reached at the monthly crisis management meeting chaired by Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun……………………………Full Article: Source

Commodity bourse: two-sided coin

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Koreaherald.co.kr: Opening a commodity exchange in Korea similar to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange will offer both benefits and risks to the Korean economy, analysts said yesterday.

They said the trading futures of gold and other precious metals through a commodity exchange will enhance transparency and reduce costs for investors……………………………Full Article: Source

Commodities: Resurgence explored

Posted on 27 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Although there is significant debate concerning the precise point at which we stand in the commodities super cycle, most analysts would agree that the current cycle started around 2003. The global financial crisis in the latter half of 2008 brought the cycle to a temporary halt, with prices of most commodity classes, with the notable exception of gold, tumbling from historical highs.
The full report including profiles on 19 companies in the commodities sector listed on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market and AIM can be downloaded free of charge at www.psqanalytics.com

Bull run in commodities may continue

Posted on 26 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Business-standard.com: Spurt in prices to be driven by dollar weakness, rise in demand and low supplies. The gobal bull run in commodities is likely to continue through next year due to dollar weakness, supply restraint and, eventually, a pick-up in demand.

After plummeting in the fourth quarter of the last calendar year, commodities have performed well this year, with prices having surged by 140 per cent on supply constraints and demand………………………….Full Article: Source

High speculative positions for many commodities

Posted on 26 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Commodityonline.com: We believe that risk has played an important role in the current commodities price rally. Speculative positions are very high for many commodities. We also believe that these high speculative positions raise the risk of deep price corrections.

However, due to the massive amounts of liquidity, speculative positions are sustainable for as long as monetary policy remains accommodative………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold ascends as commodity currencies underperform

Posted on 26 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Dow Jones: Gold is defying expectations of a pullback by hitting further record highs Wednesday as commodity currencies continue to underperform and concerns of inflationary asset bubbles heighten.

The precious metal, traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, hit $1,183.05 a troy ounce in European spot trade, building on a rally that started to gather pace a month ago. Most-active February gold on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange meanwhile rose to $1,184.07/oz………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold could push oil above $100 in 2010 or early 2011

Posted on 26 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Zawya.com: Oil prices are projected to average $85 per barrel next year and they may jump above $100 by late 2010 or early 2011, according to a revised global energy forecast by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

Earlier the investment bank forecast $75 a barrel for oil in 2010, but revised its expectations higher on anticipation that continued weakness in the US dollar will push commodities higher next year and gold may jump to $1,500 an ounce………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold rush sends bullion towards $1,200

Posted on 26 November 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Ninemsn.com.au: Gold renewed its record- breaking run on Wednesday, surging towards the $1,200 a troy ounce level, with bullion likely to make further gains after Sri Lanka joined other central banks in buying gold from the International Monetary Fund, analysts said.

The IMF said late on Wednesday that the Asian country had bought 10 tonnes of bullion from its reserves for $375m, confirming a trend of central bank gold buying that reverses two decades of heavy selling………………………….Full Article: Source

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