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Commodities Briefing - Archive | October 20th, 2009

Commodity markets: gold and oil continue higher

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From AP and other sources: Gold has added 1% last session, currently trading at $1067.50/oz, as the weakening USD continues to give bulls reasons to buy. The dollar resumed its fall against other currencies Monday, lifting commodities like gold, copper and oil.

Crude oil futures briefly traded above $80/bbl and are currently up 0.4% on the day, sitting just below the round number. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, a widely used measure of commodities trading, soared 1.3 percent to its highest level of the year. The index is up 21.8 percent year-to-date, after plunging about 50 percent in the last six months of 2008……………………Full Article: Source

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Oil prices hit high but report warns of supply crunch

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Guardian: World oil prices hit their highest point for a year yesterday, as a major new report urged governments around the world to take drastic action to head off an approaching oil supply crunch.

US light crude futures pushed above $79 a barrel, supported by the view that a recovering world economy would raise demand for crude. Oil prices have more than doubled from the low point they hit in the spring, but are still around half the all-time high of nearly $150 a barrel they reached in early summer last year……………………Full Article: Source

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Oil price closes on $US80 a barrel – a 12-month high

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Nbr.co.nz: A weak US dollar, which is wreaking havoc in world currency markets, and strong corporate results on Wall Street have pushed up oil prices to one-year highs.

Crude oil futures have risen more than 1% in trading on the New York commodity market, settling at $US79.61 a barrel, the highest close since October 12, 2008……………………Full Article: Source

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Oil breaks resistance, may climb to $90: Technical analysis

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Bloomberg: Crude oil has breached a key resistance level of $76.28 a barrel, giving it the “capacity” to rise to just under $90 based on Fibonacci retracements, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said.

Oil, which is trading near a one-year high in New York, is “taking a pause” to consolidate before moving up toward $89.85 a barrel, said Geoff Clear, the Singapore-based head of Asian commodities at ANZ……………………Full Article: Source

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Oil think tank warns recovery bears risks for energy price

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From UPI: Consumers and producers of oil need to handle the current economic recovery with care to make sure they don’t misread signals and trigger a change in the oil market that may jolt the world out of the recuperative mode, London’s Center for Global Energy Studies warned Monday.

The world economy is coming out of recession, largely due to unprecedented cash injections by governments, but growth remains fragile and patchy, the CGES said in its Monthly Oil Report for October……………………Full Article: Source

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OPEC blames high crude prices on speculators

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From WSJ: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Secretary-General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said Friday that current high oil prices weren’t due to lack of supply but to speculators, and that the cartel wouldn’t intervene or push extra supply into the market.

“If we see the price is going up because of a shortage of crude oil in the oil market, I’m sure OPEC would intervene and correct this,” Mr. El-Badri said in an interview in Abuja, Nigeria after two days of meetings with Nigerian counterparts……………………Full Article: Source

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OPEC scribe dismisses claim of alternative fuel

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Thisdayonline.com: Secretary General, Organi-sation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), His Excellency, Abdalla S. El-Badri, has dismissed fears about the imminent replacement of petroleum with bio-fuels and other alternatives, saying there is no alternative to oil as the main source of energy in the world.
El-Badri said the global debate about seeking alternative to oil would not yield result, because of the strategic importance of oil……………………Full Article: Source

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World must shift to low-carbon economy by 2014 or face dangerous climate change

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Guardian: The world must start a “complete” shift to a low carbon economy by 2014 — or risk making dangerous climate change almost inevitable, a report warned today.

The study for conservation charity WWF showed that waiting until after 2014 to fully develop the clean industries needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as renewable energy, would leave it too late to halt temperature rises of more than 2C……………………Full Article: Source

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Private capital looks to cash in on carbon trading

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Cnbc.com: At a recent biomass conference in San Francisco, one institutional investor with capital exposure to carbon transactions lamented the “crowds of unemployed bankers” roaming around looking to create carbon “deals” and launch funds based on credits that have a tenuous value.

“Even the people trading carbon since it’s been around don’t know what they’re doing,” he said. “It’s a lot of risk to take in.”…………………..Full Article: Source

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Coal gets emissions free pass until 2033

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Canberratimes.com.au: Australia will not cut emissions from coal-fired power for at least 24 years under the Rudd Government’s proposed carbon trading scheme, a leading economist says.

Instead, the scheme’s polluter loopholes will force the Government to spend millions buying carbon permits from developing countries to meet even modest greenhouse targets, The Australia Institute’s executive director Richard Denniss said……………………Full Article: Source

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Ross Beaty’s new passion - geothermal energy - but still positive on copper, silver and gold.

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: A mining entrepreneur extraordinaire, Ross Beaty still serves as chairman of Pan American Silver for which the business model inspired that of his new enterprise in geothermal energy, and what he sees as common ground in the geothermal and mining sectors.
However he remains confident on the future for the metals in which he made his fortune - silver, copper and gold……………………Full Article: Source

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Gold coins turn hot commodity in India

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Ndtv.com: Gold coin is the hottest commodity in India these days. India, the world’s largest consumer of yellow metal has been the best buying ground for gold jewellery items all these years. But many Indians these days prefer gold coins and bars as investment options.

“The customer preference of gold buyers in India is changing fast. All these years, buying gold jewellery items were considered the best investment option……………………Full Article: Source

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What does Aden’s $5,800 gold projection suggest for juniors?

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Resourceinvestor.com: The only bull market we can compare the current eight year rise in the price of gold to is the 10-year rise in the 1970s.
The Aden sisters, Mary Anne and Pamela, have extrapolated the future price of gold using the same growth rate as in the ‘70s and applied it to the current bull market and reported their findings in their latest Aden Forecast……………………Full Article: Source

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Gold at $2,000 still below 1980’s high

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Businessmirror.com.ph: Gold’s rally to a record means prices are still 53 percent below the 1980 inflation-adjusted peak. While gold rose 19 percent this year to $1,072 an ounce on October 14, consumer prices almost tripled in the past three decades, eroding the metal’s value.
Bullion hasn’t kept pace with the cost of bread, fuel or medical care. In 1980, gold hit a then-record $873 an ounce. In today’s dollars, that would be $2,287, according to the US Department of Labor’s inflation calculator……………………Full Article: Source

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Is your gold really there?

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: Continuing doubts are being expressed that all the gold claimed to be held by Central Banks and others may not be there, or title is being held by several parties as the statistics just don’t appear to add up.
It doesn’t just seem to be GATA which nowadays is questioning whether the volume of gold held in ETFs and in official reserves is really there - or perhaps there is more than one title to what is actually in the world’s gold vaults? Would a run on gold bullion thus create panic among the Bankers?…………………..Full Article: Source

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Platinum: A stronger safe haven than gold?

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Hardassetsinvestor.com: Gold has scored a lot of press lately, and for good reason: Its price just keeps on making new records and breaking them. Just last week, the yellow metal recently struck a new all-time high of $1,072/oz.

But on a year-to-date basis, another precious metal has quietly outshone gold’s returns: platinum……………………Full Article: Source

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Could copper fall to $1,500 a tonne by mid-decade?

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Mineweb.com: A copper price scenario that suggests a sharp fall, followed by a boom, followed by an even more precipitous collapse as the world dips into a second phase of this current recession.
One can hardly call copper and China specialist, Simon Hunt, a copper bull, but his latest assessment of the global copper market is gloomy to say the least……………………Full Article: Source

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ETF boom: An industry evolves

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Thestreet.com: The size and scope of ETFs is growing rapidly, as the adaptable funds take aim at an even broader audience.
Among the top most-active symbols in the market today are ETFs like the Financial Select SPDR, SPDR Trust and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index, evidence that these funds have taken more than a foothold……………………Full Article: Source

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ETF Exchange assets hit $275mln

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Ifaonline.co.uk: ETF Exchange, the third generation ETF platform of ETF Securities (ETFS), has seen assets under management reach over $275m, marking an 84% rise in the last two months.

The ETF provider says resource-equity related ETFs are among the best performing, with its Russell Global Coal Mining fund up 109% year to date……………………Full Article: Source

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Currency-basket ETF: A portfolio imperative

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Seekingalpha.com: Given the restrictive nature of financial instruments in the emerging markets, the Wisdom Tree Emerging Currency Fund (CEW) stands out in its ability to capture broad and sudden shifts in investor sentiment; the ETF is mandated to access “non-deliverable” forward exchange (NDF) contracts quoted by a number of seasoned market-makers.
To the extent that the leading candidates in the emerging markets spectrum are responding to global developments in their own unique manner, the ETF is thoughtfully diversified……………………Full Article: Source

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Dollar bears buy ETFs for safety

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From WSJ: Investors fretting over a weaker U.S. dollar and the outlook for inflation have been stuffing cash into exchange-traded funds following commodities, foreign stocks and inflation-protected bonds, industry data show.

“Aside from hunting for low-duration bond ETFs in an effort to avoid excessive interest-rate risk, it appears that investors are also bracing their portfolios for a potential long-term bout of inflation,” said John Gabriel, ETF analyst at Morningstar……………………Full Article: Source

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Embrace the dollar’s downfall

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Guardian: Most of the economists and pundits who could not see an $8tn housing bubble are telling us that the United States desperately needs the Chinese government to keep buying its debt.
This crew of failed analysts argues that without the support of the Chinese government, interest rates in the US will rise, choking off the recovery…………………..Full Article: Source

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Aussie pushes forward

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Forbes: The Australian dollar picked up steam on Monday on fresh signs of strength, but ultimately the aussie will only go as far against the greenback as the Federal Reserve lets it.

The Australian dollar received a shot in the arm from policymakers, infusing its currency with more bullish commentary……………………Full Article: Source

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CME allows gold to be used as collateral for trading

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Chicagotribune.com: A move by CME Group Inc. to allow gold to be used as collateral for margin requirements on all exchange products raises the profile of the metal, but the development probably will not mean a significant increase in demand for physical gold itself, analysts said.

The new global policy became effective Monday in accordance with a member’s note issued late Friday, said a CME spokesman in London……………………Full Article: Source

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CFTC to release history of disaggregated COT data

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Mondovisione.com: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today announced that the agency will make available more than three years of history of disaggregated data included in the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports.
History for the 22 commodity futures markets currently contained in the weekly disaggregated COT reports, first published on September 4, 2009, will be available starting Tuesday, October 20, 2009, at www.cftc.gov……………………Full Article: Source

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Coffee hits 2009 high

Posted on 20 October 2009 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From Ninemsn.com.au: Coffee prices hit a 2009 high on Monday amid concerns about the deteriorating outlook for Colombian production as commodity markets made a strong start to the new trading week with gains for crude oil, grains, sugar and base metals.

Liffe December arabica rose 1.8 per cent to $1.4540 a pound in reaction to news on Friday that Colombia’s National Coffee Growers Federation had cut its 2009-10 production forecast to 8.8m bags from a previous projection of 9.4m bags.(Each bag weighs 60kg.)…………………..Full Article: Source

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