Opalesque Commodities Briefing » Commentaries http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing Fri, 17 May 2013 01:03:17 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 en Why Peter Grandich is still telling his wife gold will hit $2,000/oz http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125453 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125453#comments Fri, 17 May 2013 01:00:34 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125453 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125453>Article Link</a> A year ago, the technical picture suggested that the market was coming to a major change that could have been several hundred dollars up or down. My brain said it could be down, but my heart said up and I stuck with my heart. (more…)

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Global growth key to boosting industrial commodities http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125441 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125441#comments Thu, 16 May 2013 01:02:10 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125441 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125441>Article Link</a> It’s a dichotomy that has agitated equity market naysayers for many months. How can stocks be so bullish when growth-sensitive commodities are having such a rotten time? (more…)

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Transcending commodities and limited imaginations http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125438 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125438#comments Thu, 16 May 2013 01:01:22 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125438 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125438>Article Link</a> I’m not a big fan of the word “commodity.” At least, not in how economists would define the term. Sure, it is a perfectly good word with a perfectly reasonable meaning – a product or service that is in demand, but that is not qualitatively distinguishable in the marketplace. (more…)

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When will the gold bull resume? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125409 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125409#comments Wed, 15 May 2013 01:30:48 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125409 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125409>Article Link</a> While gold has seen a decent rebound, silver and the mining shares (the more speculative side of the complex) have failed to sustain any rebound despite tremendously supportive sentiment amid an extreme oversold condition. Is the failure to rebound bearish? Not really. (more…)

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Signs emerge that the commodity super-cycle isn’t over http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125406 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125406#comments Tue, 14 May 2013 04:11:34 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125406 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125406>Article Link</a> Is it too early to pronounce the so-called commodity super-cycle over? Just maybe. Two Canadian commodity indexes came out Monday, and they both suggest that raw materials are going through a modest stumble, not the huge blow up being forecast by the commodity doom and gloom crowd. (more…)

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The commodities supercycle is far from dead http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125405 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125405#comments Tue, 14 May 2013 04:11:13 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125405 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125405>Article Link</a> The main fundamental drivers of the commodities supercycle are still in force and recent commodity price weaknesses are more related to business-cycle fluctuations and short-term commodity-specific supply increases than a change in structural fundamentals. (more…)

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Soft commodities languish after glut http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125404 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125404#comments Tue, 14 May 2013 04:10:57 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125404 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125404>Article Link</a> Farmers responded to a big rise in prices in the past five years with a combination of increased planting, better husbandry and larger applications of fertiliser and pesticides. As a result, production rose, sending prices down. (more…)

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Thank god gold prices are falling http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125397 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125397#comments Tue, 14 May 2013 04:08:59 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125397 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125397>Article Link</a> How many of us would like to walk into a shopping mall holding several grams of gold in the pocket to buy a packet of soap or other daily necessities? This is quite possible if paper currency loses its significance or value. But why would that happen and what does it have to do with gold prices? (more…)

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Silver prices: The best is yet to come http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125396 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125396#comments Tue, 14 May 2013 04:08:44 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125396 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125396>Article Link</a> I find myself reminiscing about April 2011 when the white metal ended the month at a sterling $48.70 an ounce after hitting an all-time intraday high of $49.51. That record surpassed the previous high of $49.45 set three decades earlier when the Texan Hunt brothers set out to corner the silver market. (more…)

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What on earth are ‘commodity super-cycles’ and why do they matter? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125363 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125363#comments Fri, 10 May 2013 03:13:22 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125363 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125363>Article Link</a> The average developing country lives off exporting commodities like oil, gas, copper, cocoa or soybeans. The sale of these resources brings both revenue to the government and foreign currency to import what is not produced at home — which, in these places, tends to be most things. (more…)

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Druckenmiller says long commodities rally ending on China http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125353 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125353#comments Thu, 09 May 2013 03:23:53 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125353 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125353>Article Link</a> Stanley Druckenmiller, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who returned an average of 30 percent a year from 1986 through 2010, said the long rally by commodities is over as China switches to consumption-led growth rather than investing in infrastructure. (more…)

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A day of reckoning is coming for the global commodities glut http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125351 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125351#comments Thu, 09 May 2013 03:23:21 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125351 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125351>Article Link</a> The best investment idea at Ira Sohn 2013 could be all about shorting everything that’s associated with the voracious Chinese demand for commodities, a symptom of policies that attempted to quell–but really just put on hold–the effects of the financial crisis. (more…)

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The real reason gold price fell http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125346 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125346#comments Thu, 09 May 2013 03:22:01 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125346 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125346>Article Link</a> Things are upside down in the gold market. Valuations are irrationally low, while global consumerism fuels demand and supply comes up short. Lawrence Roulston, editor and publisher of Resource Opportunities, advises people to trust their guts as well as the numbers when weeding through prospective investments. (more…)

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RBI curb on gold import likely to raise bullion prices http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125333 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125333#comments Wed, 08 May 2013 02:23:39 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125333 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125333>Article Link</a> Even though gold is said to have entered a bearish phase there is no respite for Indian consumers. They may end up paying more for the yellow metal if the RBI’s recent move to restrict banks’ bullion imports becomes effective. (more…)

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Learn to love commodities when they’re hated http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125325 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125325#comments Tue, 07 May 2013 03:37:01 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125325 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125325>Article Link</a> Sometimes following where money is being invested is a solid course of action. Other times, a better opportunity lies in going the opposite direction. (more…)

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What if silver and gold investors are wrong? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125314 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125314#comments Tue, 07 May 2013 03:33:58 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125314 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125314>Article Link</a> The recent declines in the gold and silver markets have prompted some soul searching among even the more dedicated precious metals investors. A rational investment approach would involve considering the likelihood of various scenarios that could hurt precious metal prices even further. (more…)

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The commodity boom is over http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125267 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125267#comments Thu, 02 May 2013 03:25:19 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125267 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125267>Article Link</a> In China the investment share of GDP stands at 48%, 12% higher than any other industrializing country in the past. While many point to such high numbers as proof that the commodity boom will last forever, the truth of the matter is that such growth is unsustainable. (more…)

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A case for owning commodities when no one else is http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125266 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125266#comments Thu, 02 May 2013 03:24:58 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125266 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125266>Article Link</a> Sometimes following where money is being invested is a solid course of action to gain alpha; other times, a better opportunity lies in going the opposite direction, i.e., thinking contrarian. (more…)

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Gold: To buy or not to buy? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125259 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125259#comments Thu, 02 May 2013 03:22:42 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125259 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125259>Article Link</a> For those of you who have been following the precious metals sector you know that things aren’t going too well currently. Silver prices have fallen ~25% year to date, gold has fallen ~16% year to date, and platinum has fallen ~8% year to date. (more…)

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Activity in Gold may determine stability in wider commodity investment pic: Barclays http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125257 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125257#comments Thu, 02 May 2013 03:22:05 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125257 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125257>Article Link</a> The flow of investments out of commodities slowed down sharply in March to a net $2.6bn from $4bn in February. The main reason for this slowdown was a halving in the value of funds withdrawn from precious metals ETPs to $2.6bn. (more…)

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BlackRock’s Hambro: Too early to tell if gold price falls are over http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125229 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125229#comments Tue, 30 Apr 2013 03:34:15 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125229 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125229>Article Link</a> The recent gold price volatility could plague investors for some time, and further selling is also a risk, according to BlackRock’s natural resources head Evy Hambro. (more…)

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The beginning of the silver age http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125228 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125228#comments Tue, 30 Apr 2013 03:34:01 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125228 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125228>Article Link</a> A lot of people were knocked out of the gold and silver market because of panic during the last two weeks; they capitulated or sold short near the bottom. Many others exclaimed that the gold age was over. However, I see the rising sun in the morning. Both gold and silver will start a new age. In this paper, I’ll try to tell you why we are in the beginning of a more splendid era for gold and silver. I’ll also share with you why silver will be a supernova in the following decades. (more…)

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HSBC cuts gold, silver price forecasts for 2013 & 2014 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125214 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125214#comments Mon, 29 Apr 2013 01:54:42 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125214 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125214>Article Link</a> HSBC lowered its gold forecast for this year and next on Friday, saying the recent tumble in prices for the yellow metal has dealt a severe blow to investor confidence, which may take many months to restore.The bank cut its 2013 gold price forecast to $1,542 per troy ounce from $1,700 and the 2014 price outlook to $1,600 per troy ounce from $1,720. (more…)

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Silver price breakdown on heavy volume does not look good http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125210 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125210#comments Mon, 29 Apr 2013 01:53:22 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125210 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125210>Article Link</a> After being stuck in a tight range following its plunge about 9 trading days ago, silver finally responded to gold’s creeping advance and ‘popped’ on Thursday, but it was not that impressive and was followed by a rather negative ’spinning top’ candlestick on Friday, meaning that it could have been a 1-day wonder especially given that gold’s relief rally looks to be about done. (more…)

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The global slowdown is hinting at a ‘major re-alignment of the markets’ — and it won’t be pretty http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125178 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125178#comments Thu, 25 Apr 2013 02:49:28 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125178 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125178>Article Link</a> That’s the gist of BofA Merrill Lynch rates guru David Woo’s latest report – titled “The impossible trinity: A tale of three cities” – which begins like this (emphasis added): (more…)

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Did gold really disappoint as a “safe haven”? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125170 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125170#comments Thu, 25 Apr 2013 02:47:16 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125170 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125170>Article Link</a> What is a “Safe-Haven”? It should be defined as a long-term investment that holds its value internationally, in extreme financial times. Is gold one of these? After all, it has fallen from $1,921 at its peak to $1,344 at its trough. (more…)

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The silver market: An ‘operation’, not a liquidation http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125167 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125167#comments Thu, 25 Apr 2013 02:46:34 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125167 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125167>Article Link</a> Recent, previous commentaries have focused on the massive liquidation in the paper-gold market; as large investors (in large numbers) have fled that paper in favor of real metal. It has now been established that this flight out of the paper-gold market was in response to the Cyprus Steal – and at least to some extent has been a choreographed event. (more…)

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Jim Rogers: It pays to be worried, and to be skeptical http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125163 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125163#comments Thu, 25 Apr 2013 02:45:30 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125163 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125163>Article Link</a> If you are invested in the lofty stock markets of the United States or Japan, legendary investor Jim Rogers has a message for you …Euphoric gains always lead to hangover pains – it’s just a matter of when. (more…)

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Commodities: What next after the ’super-cycle’? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125159 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125159#comments Wed, 24 Apr 2013 03:13:27 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125159 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125159>Article Link</a> And so another day’s trading begins in the “pit”, or floor, of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the home of the city’s energy and metal trading in downtown Manhattan. (more…)

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How low can the gold price go? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125150 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125150#comments Wed, 24 Apr 2013 03:10:50 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125150 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125150>Article Link</a> Killian Charles, an analyst with Industrial Alliance in Montreal, isn’t too concerned if the gold price hits $1,300 an ounce or even $1,000. He’s more concerned with the gold breaking point. How low can the gold price go without breaking a project? Investors will be surprised to know that a wealth of junior miners are lean and mean enough to survive a pint-sized gold price. (more…)

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Are precious metals and miners in a short squeeze? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125146 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125146#comments Wed, 24 Apr 2013 03:02:27 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125146 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125146>Article Link</a> A week ago I wrote about a potential rebound after capitulation and panic selling in precious metals and the miners. It now appears Goldman Sachs (GS) is covering its short on gold as it rebounds above $1,400. (more…)

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Commodities supercycle is over http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125138 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125138#comments Tue, 23 Apr 2013 03:17:24 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125138 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125138>Article Link</a> Over the past week, I’ve seen two sides to the commodities sector. In the central business district of Perth, Australia, there is little evidence that the boom is ending. Restaurants with prices high enough to scare off well-fed bankers were full, and service was woeful – reflecting a scarce pool of workers after the mining rush, and heady wage inflation even for low-skilled positions. (more…)

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Why you can’t afford to write off gold http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125130 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125130#comments Tue, 23 Apr 2013 03:14:50 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125130 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125130>Article Link</a> The violence of the fall in the gold price has taken investors by surprise and has understandably led to questions about whether this is a short-term correction driven by technical and hedge fund-led speculative activity or if it signals the end of the 12-year gold bull market. (more…)

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China’s cooldown: Charting a new path for commodities http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125113 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125113#comments Mon, 22 Apr 2013 03:10:40 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125113 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125113>Article Link</a> Zhang Lianjin remembers the 2008 global financial crisis well. It nearly shuttered his brand-new metal casting factory in Wuhan, the steel centre of China. (more…)

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Wall Street recycles its commodities call http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125112 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125112#comments Mon, 22 Apr 2013 03:10:20 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125112 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125112>Article Link</a> There’s no way of falling off a cycle gracefully, but that won’t stop Wall Street from trying. The past week or so has seen a clutch of reports from bank analysts signaling that the end is nigh for the commodities supercycle, with at least two on Friday alone. It comes amid a broad sell-off in hard assets of all descriptions, with gold’s slide the most prominent. (more…)

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What is wrong with gold? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125107 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125107#comments Mon, 22 Apr 2013 03:08:57 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125107 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125107>Article Link</a> In the James Bond film “Goldfinger”, the gold-intoxicated villain - the film’s namesake - leaves Bond with this thought: “This is gold Mr. Bond. All my life I have been in love with its color, its brilliance, its divine eminence.” (more…)

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Is there a silver lining to the gold price plunge? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125104 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125104#comments Mon, 22 Apr 2013 03:08:10 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125104 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125104>Article Link</a> It’s been a volatile week for gold prices, which tumbled by the most in 30 years. Although gold is still not obviously undervalued, we think the recent market moves make stock prices of gold miners look attractive when compared with prices of the precious metal. (more…)

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What does the decline in commodity prices tell us? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125088 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125088#comments Fri, 19 Apr 2013 04:08:40 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125088 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125088>Article Link</a> It isn’t news to anybody who follows markets that commodities in general and gold in particular have taken a beating in the last week or so. There is no shortage of people telling us that this is the harbinger of a collapse in stock prices. I disagree. (more…)

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How to play 2013′s best performing commodity http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125087 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125087#comments Fri, 19 Apr 2013 04:08:24 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125087 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125087>Article Link</a> You find me a commodity that’s heading higher and I’ll find you a way to play it. Lately the “finding” has gotten a little harder. Price action across the board in commodities hasn’t given us many uptrending commodities – that is, except for one. (more…)

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Is gold’s long-term story still intact? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125084 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125084#comments Fri, 19 Apr 2013 04:07:41 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125084 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125084>Article Link</a> While gold dropped to a two-year low earlier this week, many market commentators continue to believe in the metal’s long-term fundamentals – although some are taking a more cautious approach in the short-term. (more…)

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Is the gold and silver bull market at an end? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125083 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125083#comments Fri, 19 Apr 2013 04:07:30 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125083 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125083>Article Link</a> On Friday we witnessed a great plunge in gold (almost $80 – from $1,560.30 to $1,480.50) and silver (almost $1.70 – from $27.58 to $25.89) and we are seeing even lower prices this week. No matter if we take gold from the USD perspective, average non-USD perspective, or gold priced in individual non-USD currencies, we will see that the price has broken below the key support levels. (more…)

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JPMorgan says commodity supercycle still has a decade left http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125053 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125053#comments Wed, 17 Apr 2013 01:29:58 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125053 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125053>Article Link</a> Commodity supercycle still has about a decade left, while the “mid-cycle pause” may last for 12 more months, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (more…)

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Gold and commodities: The not so precious metal http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125049 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125049#comments Wed, 17 Apr 2013 01:29:01 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125049 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125049>Article Link</a> The “barbarous relic” is how Keynes referred to gold, and recent buyers of the stuff might not be too well disposed to it either. Over Friday and Monday, gold suffered its biggest plunge in value in 30 years. At one point on Monday, the market price of a troy ounce dropped by over $30 in just a few minutes. Even after a mild recovery yesterday, at $1,363 an ounce, the not so precious metal remains more than $200 below where it began on Friday. (more…)

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The gold price crash is further evidence of market rigging http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125047 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125047#comments Wed, 17 Apr 2013 01:28:30 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125047 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125047>Article Link</a> The facts in the public domain do not justify the sharp fall in the gold price over the past two trading days. At the time of writing, the price per 100oz is $1363, down over $200 since Friday’s open. The scale of the sell-off was the worst in 30 years, with the volatility index standing at the highest level in its history. (more…)

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The crash in the gold price isn’t all bad. In fact, it may even be a sign of recovery http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125046 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125046#comments Wed, 17 Apr 2013 01:28:19 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125046 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125046>Article Link</a> Gold is where money runs when it’s scared. That’s what we found in the autumn of 2008, when the banking crisis unfolded. Gold has such strong cultural resonance – from Midas to Goldfinger – that it is hard to regard it rationally. And so when the price soars, or plunges, there is a temptation to try to extract some grand message for humankind: what is the plunge saying about the state of the world economy? (more…)

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Why are small investors still buying gold? A psychology lesson http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125026 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125026#comments Tue, 16 Apr 2013 00:54:53 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125026 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125026>Article Link</a> Last week saw the most precipitous fall in gold prices in almost two years. On Friday, on the Multi-Commodity Exchange of India gold suffered its biggest daily loss ever, and gold futures for June delivery plunged $63.50, or 4.1%, to settle just above $1,500 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the weakest closing since July, 2011. (more…)

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Are commodities a buy? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125020 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125020#comments Mon, 15 Apr 2013 03:13:48 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125020 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125020>Article Link</a> Your investment portfolio already has stocks and bonds. Do you need to add commodities such as soybeans, copper and oil as well? Some experts argue that you should—and that this may be a good moment in which to make the move. (more…)

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Is this the biggest threat to OPEC? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125013 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125013#comments Mon, 15 Apr 2013 03:11:45 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125013 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125013>Article Link</a> The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, describes itself as “a permanent intergovernmental organization of 12 oil-exporting developing nations that coordinates and unifies the petroleum policies of its Member Countries.” (more…)

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Gold’s longer run positive factors - Where art thou? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125005 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125005#comments Mon, 15 Apr 2013 03:09:46 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125005 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=125005>Article Link</a> Based on the European Commission’s draft, Cyprus will sell about 10.4 tonnes of gold, representing 4 percent of the Euro 10 billion bail-out package for Cyprus and about 2.6 percent of the maximum 400 tonnes annual gold sales by the European central banks. Gold reserves represent 62% of total reserves in Cyprus. (more…)

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Don’t like how big oil invests? Blame wall street http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124989 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124989#comments Fri, 12 Apr 2013 04:14:39 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124989 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124989>Article Link</a> Wall Street is unhappy with the performance of ExxonMobil’s share price. In the race of Big Oil share prices, Chevron is clearly winning. The discussion of relative share price performance is recently focusing on two things that distinguish the two oil giants. Unlike ExxonMobil, Chevron opted to stay out of Iraq and hasn’t yet purchased a US shale gas company. This begs the question: Who was right? (more…)

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Goldman Sachs says it’s time to short gold http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124987 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124987#comments Fri, 12 Apr 2013 04:14:05 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124987 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124987>Article Link</a> Despite global economic uncertainty, Goldman expects gold to fall to $1,450 an ounce by the end of 2013, and to $1,270 an ounce by the end of 2014. While major US equity indexes continue to push into uncharted territory, commodities have taken a backseat so far this year. As investors keep pouring into stocks and increasing their overall risk appetites, safe haven assets like gold have faltered. (more…)

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Goldman Sachs is manipulating gold prices right before your eyes http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124986 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124986#comments Fri, 12 Apr 2013 04:13:46 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124986 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124986>Article Link</a> If you want a lesson on how to manipulate gold prices, you need only look at what Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) has been doing over the past few months. Goldman set the table by predicting a turn in gold prices back in December 2012, which no doubt contributed to the precious metal’s 5% decline in the first two months of the year. (more…)

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Commodities will be stagnant through 2013 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124971 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124971#comments Thu, 11 Apr 2013 04:20:50 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124971 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124971>Article Link</a> Lack of demand in the year ahead will dampen commodity prices, according to a senior economist. The S&P GSCI TR index of commodity prices – which incorporates energy, agriculture, and both industrial and precious metals – has fallen by 2.2 per cent so far this year. (more…)

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China’s latest threat to gold and silver http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124958 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124958#comments Thu, 11 Apr 2013 04:16:53 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124958 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124958>Article Link</a> The swirling global economy has recently put significant pressure on gold and silver prices despite the continuing uncertainty that exists in Europe and elsewhere. Earlier this week, China announced figures for both its consumer price index and producer price index that suggest inflation expectations missed the mark fairly considerably. This has the effect of putting significant pressure on gold and silver prices throughout the year. (more…)

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Jim Rickards: Gold is always rallying somewhere http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124942 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124942#comments Wed, 10 Apr 2013 04:06:27 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124942 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124942>Article Link</a> Gold is 25% up in the last 3 months, but it’s up in Yen, not dollars. This is where currency wars and gold dynamics come together. When you think about cross rates it’s a zero sum game. Not every currency can go down against every other currency at once. Gold is always rallying somewhere; right now it is rallying in Yen. (more…)

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Strange business: Have pundits become too pessimistic about gold? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124940 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124940#comments Wed, 10 Apr 2013 04:06:03 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124940 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124940>Article Link</a> The recent decline in gold prices and the much larger decline in gold stocks — particularly gold mining stocks — has many people thinking that the decade-long bull market in the yellow metal has ended. (more…)

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The more things change, the more silver stays the same http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124903 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124903#comments Mon, 08 Apr 2013 03:28:43 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124903 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124903>Article Link</a> From a technical perspective, the price of silver is obviously breaking down. The market has been ‘trading heavy’ for a while. Furthermore, the entire commodities complex is trading in a downward trending channel, except for oil. The U.S. Dollar is also stronger because of the Euro aftermath. (more…)

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Silver investment demand needed badly to support prices http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124902 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124902#comments Mon, 08 Apr 2013 03:28:29 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124902 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124902>Article Link</a> Reading between the lines in a Barclays report on precious metals, silver investment demand needs to grow further this year to reduce the risk of price fall as there is a possibility of market surplus for 2013. (more…)

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Investors rotate out of gold into cyclically-geared commodities, ETP flows show http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124892 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124892#comments Fri, 05 Apr 2013 04:15:52 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124892 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124892>Article Link</a> As global growth and risk appetite picked up in the first quarter of 2013, commodity investors rotated out of exchange-traded products (ETPs) linked to gold and into more cyclical commodity ETPs such as silver, copper, palladium, platinum and broad commodity trackers. (more…)

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Can silver add a contrarian shine? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124882 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124882#comments Fri, 05 Apr 2013 04:10:24 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124882 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=124882>Article Link</a> Silver prices are plunging, there’s no denying that. The technical picture in silver is indeed ugly, a point expertly made by my InvestorPlace colleague Serge Berger in his piece, “Silver: Ugly, and Getting Uglier.” (more…)

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