Opalesque Commodities Briefing http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:06:13 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 en Investors fret over falling commodities http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137409 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137409#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:06:13 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137409 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137409>Article Link</a> Investors’ expectations are for more falls in commodity prices amid worries about the Chinese economy and interest rates. Speculators have confirmed what everyone else has been thinking: expect more falls in commodities, as worries about China and higher interest rates combine with waning sentiment to suggest markets are heading further south. (more…)

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China paves a silk road for commodities http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137408 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137408#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:05:59 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137408 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137408>Article Link</a> The Silk Road may conjure up images of Marco Polo and ancient Chinese empires, but its infrastructure-driven 21st century version could be a long-term saviour for commodity prices. China’s plan to spend billions on transportation links to Europe via western Asia - primarily railways and highways but also ports - is finally underway and starting to attract international attention. (more…)

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How bad is July proving for commodities? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137407 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137407#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:05:48 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137407 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137407>Article Link</a> Concerns about a slowdown in China, renewed strength in the US dollar and persistent supply concerns have combined to make it an ugly July for commodities. But just how bad has it been? The S&P GSCI total return index, which tracks the price of 24 commodities, has fallen through the bottom it reached during the the financial crisis and is at its lowest level since February 2002, writes Mamta Badkar. (more…)

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Why China, commodities won’t sway Fed: Ex-Fed prez http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137406 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137406#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:05:37 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137406 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137406>Article Link</a> As the Fed headed into its two-day meeting, former Richmond Fed President Al Broaddus said Tuesday it’s a “very close call” on whether policymakers will decide to increase interest rates for the first time in nine years in September or December. (more…)

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Oil prices have plunged nearly 20% this month http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137405 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137405#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:05:24 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137405 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137405>Article Link</a> China’s crashing stock market and the meltdown in the metals market may be getting all the attention lately, but crude oil is quietly crumbling once again. Oil has plunged nearly 20% this month alone and it briefly dipped below $47 a barrel on Tuesday. That leaves it flirting with the March lows, which was the weakest price since 2009. (more…)

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Oil market is in the dreaded ‘double dip’ so brace for more losses to come, warns Bank of America http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137404 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137404#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:05:12 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137404 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137404>Article Link</a> Oil prices are experiencing a “double dip” and could extend losses as the supply glut persists for another 18 months, according to Bank of America Corp. Risks to growth in China, the prospect of increased Iranian exports after this month’s nuclear deal and a strengthening dollar “could continue to press oil lower,” the bank said in a note dated July 24. Bank of America cut its third-quarter estimate for Brent to US$50 a barrel from US$54, while West Texas Intermediate was lowered to US$45 from US$50. (more…)

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10 Reasons to Love the Oil Price Drop http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137403 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137403#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:04:58 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137403 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137403>Article Link</a> Don’t let tumbling oil prices darken your outlook on stocks or the economy. Yes, U.S. crude prices have dropped into an official bear market, down around 20% since the beginning of June, which will undoubtedly hurt the oil industry and companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BP (BP). (more…)

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Gold price to average $1135/oz in Q3 – GFMS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137402 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137402#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:04:45 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137402 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137402>Article Link</a> The gold price will average $1,135 per ounce in the third quarter of this year, GFMS said in its latest Gold Survey report, and $1,175 in the fourth quarter. This compares to a second quarter average of $1,192 per ounce and current spot gold price of $1,095. (more…)

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Gold Demand Lowest Since 2009 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137401 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137401#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:04:34 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137401 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137401>Article Link</a> Demand for gold fell to its weakest level since 2009 in the second quarter, as Chinese buyers shunned purchases, the metals consultant GFMS said. “Almost all major physical gold markets suffered in the second quarter,” the London-based research firm, a unit of Thomson Reuters, said Tuesday in commentary published with its latest GFMS Gold Survey. (more…)

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Gold continues to shine in India, loses sheen in world http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137400 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137400#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:04:23 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137400 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137400>Article Link</a> World gold demand hit a six-year low in the April-June quarter of the current calendar year on weak demand from China. A survey conducted by global research firm Thomson Reuters GFMS showed that the world gold demand nose-dived 14 per cent during April-June 2015 at 858 tonnes compared with 1,000 tonnes in the corresponding quarter last year. (more…)

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HSBC downgrades 2015 gold price forecast by six percent http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137399 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137399#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:04:12 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137399 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137399>Article Link</a> HSBC has significantly downgraded its 2015 average gold price forecast, following the brutal sell-off seen in the market one week ago. HSBC now predicts that gold will average $1,160 per ounce in 2015 from $1,234 previously. The bank has also lowered its 2016 forecast by five percent from $1,275 per ounce to $1,205. (more…)

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Copper Prices Rebound From Six-Year Low on Zambia Supply Threat http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137398 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137398#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:03:59 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137398 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137398>Article Link</a> Copper futures gained the most in two weeks on concern that power restrictions in Zambia will cut supplies there and have ripple effects at global mines. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. said on Monday that Zambia’s state-run power company declared force majeure for supply of electricity to its Kansanshi operation. (more…)

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Commodities Crushed: Investors are Running Away From Commodities ETFs http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137397 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137397#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:03:46 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137397 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137397>Article Link</a> Delicately stated, these are not the best of days for commodities and the corresponding exchange traded products. With a July loss of 13.6%, the S&P GSCI Total Return Index now resides at its lowest levels since late February 2002. (more…)

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CTAs lead hedge fund recovery as commodities slump http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137396 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137396#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:03:35 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137396 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137396>Article Link</a> Hedge funds are on track to deliver solid returns in July, up 1.4% month to date (0.4% of as end July 21). CTAs and global macro managers outperformed other hedge fund strategies, said Lyxor Asset Management. (more…)

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Wells Fargo Starts Commodities Hedge Fund Amid Slump in Prices http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137395 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137395#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:03:22 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137395 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137395>Article Link</a> Wells Fargo & Co.’s wealth management division is soliciting investor money for a new commodities hedge fund just as oil hovers near a six-year low and other commodities prices slide to their worst levels since 2002. (more…)

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Emerging currencies hit 15-year lows http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137394 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137394#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:03:10 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137394 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137394>Article Link</a> Emerging-market currencies have slumped to 15-year lows as China’s equity rout and free-falling commodity prices reverberate throughout the global economy. Raw-material exporters Brazil, Russia and Colombia have suffered some of the heaviest sell-offs as falls in the price of commodities such as oil, copper and iron ore continued unabated this week, with Brent crude falling to its lowest level since February. (more…)

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Watch out: Strong U.S. dollar could trigger a currency crisis http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137393 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137393#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:02:38 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137393 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137393>Article Link</a> The U.S. dollar is getting too strong for some countries. Early warning signs suggest another emerging markets currency crisis. Brazil’s currency, the real, hit a 12-year low Monday. Currencies in Southeast Asia are at their worst points since the region’s last financial crisis in the late 1990s. Mexico and South Africa’s exchange rates are at their lowest levels ever compared to the dollar, according to Capital Economics. (more…)

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China state power firm partners with local govt to develop CO2 credits http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137392 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137392#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:02:23 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137392 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137392>Article Link</a> The State Power Investment Corporation, one of China’s big five state power producers, signed a deal with the municipal government of Jiuquan on Tuesday to develop carbon credits from the city’s wind and solar power plants. (more…)

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Poll finds 60% believe carbon tax had little or no effect on electricity bills http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137391 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137391#comments Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:02:10 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137391 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137391>Article Link</a> Only 21% of voters polled believe that the carbon price had a large impact on power prices and just 9% thought the repeal had pushed prices down. More than 60% of voters think the former Labor government’s carbon price had no effect, or only a small effect, on electricity bills – as the Abbott government tries to rerun its cost of living argument against Labor’s pledge to reintroduce an emissions trading scheme. (more…)

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Speculators show global commodities rout still not over http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137390 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137390#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:46:25 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137390 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137390>Article Link</a> Speculators have confirmed what everyone else has been thinking: expect more falls in commodities, as worries about China and higher interest rates combine with waning sentiment to suggest markets are heading further south. But while more losses are certain, their scope could be limited because a large number of speculators have already made bets that prices will fall. (more…)

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Six collapsing commodities http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137389 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137389#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:46:10 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137389 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137389>Article Link</a> Commodity prices from gold to oil and aluminium to iron ore are tumbling – here are the big fallers. Just when investors thought it might be time for a summer lull, financial markets have shifted their focus from the eurozone and its Greek woes to tumbling commodity prices. (more…)

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China growth fears crush oil and commodities http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137388 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137388#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:45:56 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137388 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137388>Article Link</a> Oil prices continued their steep slide Monday, with a barrel of U.S.-produced crude hitting a 52-week low of $47.20 a barrel as investors reacted to the biggest one-day stock sell off in China since 2007, and worries about an oil glut gained steam amid fears of an economic slowdown in China. (more…)

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End of Commodities Supercycle? (Energy Subset) http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137387 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137387#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:45:45 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137387 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137387>Article Link</a> About a decade ago, Goldman Sachs’ Arjun Murti suggested an oil “superspike” might send prices to $105 a barrel. There were two primary reactions to this analysis, first, that Goldman was just marketing its commodity indices, and second, that he/they were crazy. The former view probably continues to be held by some, the latter, not so much. (more…)

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Oil Prices Fall to Four-Month Low Amid Chinese Stocks Rout http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137386 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137386#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:45:29 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137386 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137386>Article Link</a> Oil prices fell to a four-month low Monday on concerns about a selloff in Chinese stock markets and increased oil drilling in the U.S. U.S. oil prices have slumped 20% this month as the global glut of oil shows no signs of abating. (more…)

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As Oil Prices Slide Investors Prepare To Buy http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137385 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137385#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:45:15 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137385 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137385>Article Link</a> Unless you’ve been living in a cave for the past year, you know that the price of crude oil has plummeted. At under $50 per barrel (WTI Crude), gas prices are lower, it’s cheaper to transport goods, and there are a host of other benefits. However, lower oil has also created a few problems. In this article, we’ll explore some of each and discuss a great investment opportunity emerging as a result. (more…)

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Which is more likely, $33 or $75 oil? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137384 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137384#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:44:57 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137384 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137384>Article Link</a> At a time when stocks are hitting highs, oil prices have been cut in half. Relative to past prices, it is tempting to call oil “cheap” and buy it. Indeed, there are many bullish calls by analysts to do just that. I receive a very large number of emails, and investors are showing a high interest in buying oil ETFs here for the long-term. Let us first try to answer a very simple question, “Will oil go to $33 to $75?” (more…)

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As Commodities Tumble, Don’t Count Out Gold http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137383 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137383#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:44:40 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137383 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137383>Article Link</a> The commodity collapse is undeniable. Just look to 2015 year-to-date returns: Oil has shed 16%, Nickel is down 25%, wheat has lost 15%, and sugar has plunged 28%. Yet the plunge in commodity prices doesn’t seem to be occurring in unison with the pace of global economic activity. (more…)

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Gold price recovers from five-year lows http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137382 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137382#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:44:28 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137382 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137382>Article Link</a> The price of gold is hovering around the $1,100 mark after hitting five-and-a-half year lows last week. Gold mining stocks bounced back on Monday morning after gold prices recovered from five-and-a-half year lows. On Friday, gold prices plunged to an intra-day low of $1,077 as investors offloaded the metal amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates, thus making it a less attractive investment. (more…)

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HSBC cuts 2015, 2016 gold price forecasts http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137381 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137381#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:44:15 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137381 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137381>Article Link</a> HSBC strategists on Monday lowered their average annual gold price forecasts for this year and next, warning that gold prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short term and may “move within striking distance of $1,000″ an ounce before recovering. HSBC lowered its 2015 average annual price forecast to $1,160 from $1,234 and for 2016 to $1,205 from $1,275. (more…)

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Deutsche Bank says gold’s fair value is $US750 an ounce http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137380 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137380#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:44:02 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137380 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137380>Article Link</a> Gold prices may need to fall another 30 per cent to reach fair value, according to Deutsche Bank, with cheap oil the only potential lifeline for the battered precious metal. Gold is currently trading around $US1096, just above last week’s fresh five-year low of $US1072.30. (more…)

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Silver Prices to Hit $50.00? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137379 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137379#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:43:47 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137379 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137379>Article Link</a> Despite the massive outflow of capital from commodities, a leading indicator suggests that silver prices are about to skyrocket. The last time silver priced approached $50.00 per ounce, it was preceded by a corresponding rise in this key metric. (more…)

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Copper Drops to Lowest in Six Years Amid Chinese Slowdown http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137378 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137378#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:43:35 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137378 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137378>Article Link</a> Copper slid to the lowest level in six years as the biggest selloff in Chinese equities since 2007 added to concern that the economy will worsen. The Shanghai Composite Index plunged 8.5 percent. China’s industrial profits fell in June, and data on Friday showed a private gauge of manufacturing unexpectedly declined in July to the lowest level in 15 months, boosting speculation that demand is slowing in the country. (more…)

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Chinese spot alumina prices hold steady despite smelter cuts http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137377 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137377#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:43:23 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137377 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137377>Article Link</a> Chinese spot alumina prices held steady Monday despite smelter cuts over the past week, industry sources said. However, with further cutbacks expected in the near term prices may be pressured lower, sources said. (more…)

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Short sales of eurozone bond ETFs surges http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137376 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137376#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:43:10 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137376 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137376>Article Link</a> Investors have sharply escalated their use of exchange traded funds as they seek a new way to sell exposure to eurozone bonds beyond the traditional avenues of cash and futures markets. The use of European bond ETFs for expressing a negative or short view on bond prices has surged past €500m in the first week of July. (more…)

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Funds flow into agriculture as El Nino threatens crops http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137375 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137375#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:43:00 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137375 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137375>Article Link</a> Funds are flowing back into agricultural commodities for the first time since 2012 as investors look to capitalize on cheap prices, bullish demand and the threat of crop damage from an El Nino weather pattern. Figures from ETF Securities, one of the largest issuers of exchange traded products, show a small net inflow so far this year after an outflow of nearly 20 percent in 2014. (more…)

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Hedge funds are most bearish on U.S. oil since 2010: Kemp http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137374 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137374#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:42:46 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137374 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137374>Article Link</a> Hedge funds are more bearish about the outlook for U.S. oil prices than at any time for almost five years, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hedge funds and other money managers had a net long position in WTI-linked futures and options equivalent to just 118 million barrels of oil on July 21, down from a recent high of 294 million barrels 11 weeks earlier. (more…)

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Currency Trade Drops From Tokyo to New York on Fed’s Reserve http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137373 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137373#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:42:20 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137373 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137373>Article Link</a> Foreign-exchange trading declined around the world in April amid speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates only gradually. Daily trading in the U.K., the largest currency market, fell 8 percent to average $2.5 trillion, down from October’s record of $2.7 trillion, according to a Monday statement from the Bank of England’s Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee. (more…)

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ETS would be more cost-effective than higher renewables target, analyst says http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137372 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137372#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:42:01 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137372 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137372>Article Link</a> An emissions trading scheme would be cheaper and more effective than Labor’s 50% renewables goal or the government’s Direct Action policy, Paul Hyslop says. The author of the $60bn price tag for Bill Shorten’s new renewable energy goal – cited by Tony Abbott as proof the scheme is unaffordable – says an emissions trading scheme like the one the Coalition abolished would be more cost-effective than either the coalition’s “Direct Action” plan or Labor’s new goal. (more…)

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Inside China’s shift to a low-carbon economy http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137371 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137371#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:41:47 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137371 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137371>Article Link</a> China’s announcement of how it plans to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions represents the clearest signal to date that a major structural shift away from carbon-intensive development is underway in the world’s second-largest economy. (more…)

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Deutsche Bank: Just because all commodities are falling doesn’t mean there’s one driver http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137370 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137370#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:23:50 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137370 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137370>Article Link</a> Gold, copper, corn, wheat, iron ore. The list of commodities that have been falling and under pressure over recent weeks and months grows. It would be easy to think there is something they all have in common. A stronger US dollar, rising US interest rates, slowing Chinese growth? (more…)

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Global Growth Worries Pummel Commodities http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137369 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137369#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:23:37 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137369 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137369>Article Link</a> Investors are bailing on commodities amid mounting worries about the pace of global growth. New data showing China’s factory activity hit a 15-month low and a leaked Federal Reserve memo betraying concerns about how fast the U.S. is growing added to concerns Friday and accelerated the selloff of commodities—from oil to gold to copper. (more…)

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The negative feedback loop broadens the commodities sell-­off http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137368 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137368#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:23:25 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137368 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137368>Article Link</a> Goldman Sachs have been arguing since 2013 that commodities are caught in a “negative feedback loop between excess production capacity, US dollar appreciation and weaker EM economic growth”. They recently termed these three key themes the 3D’s of macro – deflation (excess production capacity and rising productivity), divergence (stronger US dollar and weaker EM currencies) and deleveraging (significant EM credit and macro imbalances). (more…)

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Scoreboard: Commodities stampede http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137367 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137367#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:22:58 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137367 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137367>Article Link</a> The rush to exit commodities turned into a stampede last week as a weakening Chinese economy and a surging US dollar put the fright into traders and led commodities to post-crisis lows. The sea of red in the Friday session was an all-too-familiar sight for miners as oil, gold and copper all slid in the wake of the softest reading on the Chinese manufacturing sector for 15 months. (more…)

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Oil Bulls Flee at Fastest Pace in Three Years as Glut Expands http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137366 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137366#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:22:47 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137366 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137366>Article Link</a> Speculators’ conviction that oil will rally weakened at the fastest pace in three years, just before futures tumbled into a bear market. The net-long position in West Texas Intermediate contracted 28 percent in the seven days ended July 21, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Long positions dropped to a two-year low while short holdings climbed 25 percent. (more…)

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Oil groups have shelved $200bn in new projects as low prices bite http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137365 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137365#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:22:29 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137365 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137365>Article Link</a> The world’s big energy groups have shelved $200bn of spending on new projects in an urgent round of cost-cutting aimed at protecting investors’ dividends as the oil price slumps for a second time this year. (more…)

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Oil Heading for Fall as Diesel’s Engine Sputters http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137364 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137364#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:22:11 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137364 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137364>Article Link</a> If you want to understand why oil is back below $50 a barrel and likely headed much lower once summer ends, start with PetroChina’s stock prices. Mainland-listed shares in China’s national oil champion are up 27% so far this year, while their Hong Kong-listed equivalents are down 9%. (more…)

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Commodities in a meltdown, but coal, uranium offer some hope http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137363 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137363#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:21:57 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137363 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137363>Article Link</a> From super-cycle to commodity meltdown was the way one group of analysts titled a report last week. “Sentiment toward commodities as an asset class has rarely, if ever, been more negative,” added Capital Economics. (more…)

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Signals from gold prices http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137362 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137362#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:21:42 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137362 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137362>Article Link</a> The yellow metal dominated the world market scene all of last week. Gold slumped to a five-year low, slipping to an intra-day low-point of $1,072.30 by Friday. A late rally that day, however, pushed prices back to around $1,100 an ounce. At best, it helped pare losses from last Monday when the price slid to its lowest since March 2009, to $1,088.05 an ounce. (more…)

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Here’s why gold is doomed http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137361 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137361#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:21:26 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137361 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137361>Article Link</a> A little less than four years ago, the world looked like it was about to end and gold hit an all-time high of $1,895 an ounce. The United States had manufactured a debt crisis, and Europe hadn’t been able to manufacture a solution to its actual debt crisis, so panicky investors sought safety in the same place they had for 5,000 years: a shiny rock. (more…)

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Gold price meltdown points to its waning lustre http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137360 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137360#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:21:07 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137360 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137360>Article Link</a> Historically, gold buying has been fuelled in a scenario when the U.S. dollar has been weakening. This is how gold came to be bestowed a ‘safe haven’ status. The sharp decline in gold price early last week and the subsequent tepid buying of the metal in international markets point to gold’s clear falling out of favor among investors at least for now. (more…)

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Gold Slump Not Over as Speculators Go Net-Short for First Time http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137359 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137359#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:20:51 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137359 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137359>Article Link</a> The slump in gold that took prices to a five-year low may have further to run after hedge funds swung into a net-short position for the first time. The shift in New York futures and options came as speculators increased their bearish wagers to the highest since the U.S. government data begins in 2006. Long holdings declined for a fourth week. (more…)

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India must determine own gold price, feels IBJA http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137358 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137358#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:20:27 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137358 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137358>Article Link</a> Gold prices are fixed internationally by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and these are indicated to importers by banks and nominated agencies in India. Now industry body IBJA (formerly Bombay Bullion Association) wants to play a larger role and is tying up with CME Group, London for deriving a price mechanism similar to LBMA. (more…)

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The nickel price can only go up http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137357 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137357#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:20:10 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137357 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137357>Article Link</a> It’s a strange time to be in mining. Irrational exuberance has been replaced by irrational despondency. Just four-five short years ago even the flimsiest prospect or project could look forward to lavish funding and a fat market cap. (more…)

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ETFs get the edge on hedge funds http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137356 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137356#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:19:36 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137356 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137356>Article Link</a> They’re touted as the best instruments to diversify your portfolio by those who market them, including BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. The marketing plan appears to be working, as investors have ploughed more funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) than hedge funds, according to research firm ETFGI. (more…)

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Gold ETFs: 25 months of continuous outflow http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137355 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137355#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:19:25 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137355 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137355>Article Link</a> Fresh sales of gold ETFs remain muted, thanks to continuous weakness in gold prices for over two years, coupled with a negative outlook amid a strong stock market. Indian retail investors continue to sell their gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Although gold ETFs used to be one of the fast-growing asset classes, attracting a rising number of investors, they are now falling out of favour. (more…)

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9.4 trillion reasons why Europe needs a weak currency http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137354 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137354#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:19:08 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137354 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137354>Article Link</a> Continued ultraloose European Central Bank monetary policy, accompanied by a weak, or indeed weaker euro, must be an essential part of a euro zone policy toolkit being deployed to tackle a broader debt management issue than just that of Greece. That has major implications for Asia’s investors and manufacturers with euro zone exposure. (more…)

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Ghana’s Cedi is world’s best performing currency - Economist http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137353 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137353#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:18:42 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137353 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137353>Article Link</a> Last year Ghana’s currency, the cedi, was the world’s worst-performing currency. Now, in a remarkable turn-around, it’s the world’s best-performing currency. But beware. The cedi’s 26% surge this month is based on misplaced optimism about the economy, according to both Morgan Stanley and Rand Merchant Bank, a unit of Africa’s biggest lender. (more…)

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The world waits on Australia’s emissions targets http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137352 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137352#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:18:31 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137352 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137352>Article Link</a> With a UN conference in Paris in November aimed at setting emissions targets, Bill Shorten’s pledge for renewable energy generation assumes significance beyond run-of-the-mill politicking. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has elevated the stakes in a climate change debate that will help to define campaigning for the coming federal election, due within 18 months. (more…)

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China’s climate change plan represents decisive move http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137351 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137351#comments Mon, 27 Jul 2015 02:18:17 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137351 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137351>Article Link</a> Chinese premier Li Keqiang recently unveiled the country’s plan for combating climate change. While it could have been more ambitious, the plan shows China’s leaders are serious about changing the country’s development path. It critically undermines those in the West who claim that climate action should be delayed because China is doing nothing. (more…)

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Commodities slump: Is there trouble ahead for the global economy? http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137350 http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137350#comments Fri, 24 Jul 2015 02:40:28 +0000 VRS http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137350 <br> <a href=http://www.opalesque.com/Commodities_Briefing/?p=137350>Article Link</a> There’s gobs of money chasing assets these days but there’s no “bubble” in commodities, which are tanking. It’s not just gold, which gets a lot of headlines; nearly all major global industrial commodities are back to 2009 levels — including coal, gas, oil, iron ore and copper. Agricultural commodities such as wheat, coffee and sugar have also fallen on hard times. (more…)

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