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Are commodity stocks poised for a rebound?

Posted on 24 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Like a lot of investors, Ben Willis spent much of the last two years closely watching the dramatic drop in commodity prices. Since April 2011 the MSCI Commodity Producers Index, which tracks a number of global commodity companies, fell 22 percent, while metals such as copper, aluminum and nickel plummeted by more than 30 percent.
While many people have dumped their materials stocks during the free fall, this Bristol-based investment manager was waiting for the right moment to jump in. “I had to see a catalyst that would turn these stocks around,” said Willis, head of research at Whitechurch Securities Ltd………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The commodities comeback

Posted on 24 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The annual moment of truth has arrived. Companies are publishing their numbers for the full year of 2013 and it is time for us all to “brace for a moment of particularly inconvenient truth”, says John Authers in the Financial Times.
Profits aren’t rising fast enough to justify stock-market valuations. The market soared last year – forward earnings multiples are about 16 times at the moment. That’s “well above the historical average” of more like 13 times………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold will continue to face pressure

Posted on 24 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The platinum group of metals holds promise this year for investors compared to gold or silver, according to the London Bullion Merchants Association’s (LBMA) annual forecast. Over 25 analysts, taking part in a poll for the forecast, have said gold and silver will continue to face pressure, while platinum and palladium will average higher than last year.
Gold, which dropped 25 per cent last year, is seen heading lower mainly on the US Federal Reserve tapering its stimulus programme. The Fed, which has already cut the programme to boost US economy to $75 billion a month, is likely to review the stimulus at the open market committee meeting during January 28-29………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Covering the commodities sector

Posted on 24 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities are products that investors seem to view as interchangeable widgets. While a baker may have opinions about the source of his grain or a rocket engineer may carefully choose a specific aluminum for her satellite housing, investors tend to see commodities as equivalent inputs for products. A way to invest in this big-picture view of commodities in general is through PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC).
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking seeks to track changes, positive or negative, in an index tracking futures contracts in 14 physical commodities in the agriculture, energy, industrial metals and precious metals sectors. The exchange-traded fund (ETF) invests in a variety of sector-specific ETFs to replicate the index’s results………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Top 10 mining trends for 2014 - Market imbalances will wreak commodity price havoc

Posted on 23 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Prolonged market volatility is forcing miners to change the way they operate, making tough strategic changes in a bid to remain viable. Deloitte global mining leader Phil Hopwood explains that mining companies are facing a climate marred by volatile commodity prices and shifting demand fundamentals.
“To rectify cost overruns, improve capital efficiency and rebuild investor relationships, companies need to sharpen their focus on productivity, sustainable cost management and enhanced shareholder value,” Hopwood said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Falling commodities prices despite QE - What does that mean?

Posted on 23 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

During QE3, the latest round of the Fed’s quantitative easing, the stock market rose. We all know that. But did you also know that commodities fell?
That’s right: QE3 had zero effect on commodities — or maybe even a negative effect. In fact, an unbiased observer of the trend might conclude that the Fed drove commodity prices down. That, of course, would be heresy to investors who believe that the Fed’s actions have been inflating all financial markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

End of physical currency a ‘reality’, says Visa

Posted on 23 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The end of physical notes and coins is becoming a ‘reality’ as the use of new technologies expands, according to Visa. Cash is becoming increasingly irrelevant as physical coinage and notes make way for contactless payments, according to Visa.
The card payments operator said the displacement of cash was becoming a “reality”, pointing to a fourfold increase in Britain in the last year of contactless transactions………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Robust demand might see a turn in commodities rescue the loonie

Posted on 22 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Canada’s national anthem celebrates “the true north, strong and free”. And, if not exactly free, its currency is also a lot cheaper than it was. Yesterday, the Canadian dollar, the loonie, weakened to more than C$1.10 to the US dollar for the first time since 2010, after falling 17 per cent in less than three years.
The bet against the loonie looks crowded, but it is only one of a group of widely disliked investments that include the Australian dollar, emerging markets and mining shares. All are fuelled by commodities, and it has become received wisdom that the commodity supercycle – a decade in which prices soared – is over……………………………..Full Article: Source

Asian players develop an appetite for risky commodities trading

Posted on 22 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

While Western financial giants have been exiting the high-risk, high-reward commodities trading business, capital-rich Asian firms, including state-owned banks and brokerages from China, have seized the opportunity to enter the market.
Western banks including JPMorgan Chase, the world’s largest by assets, and France’s Natixis have been retreating from the commodities business but have found no shortage of Asian players willing to take their place at the table……………………………..Full Article: Source

Supply of commodities outweighs demand

Posted on 22 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Improvements in global growth are not yet leading to a meaningful increase in demand for commodities, at a time when supply remains ample. As a result, we expect prices to remain capped for now, although the Chinese recovery should gradually support demand for industrial metals. We believe that increasing supply thanks to shale discoveries will weigh on oil prices in the long term, while gold prices still lack an upside catalyst.
Commodity prices have remained under pressure even as the global economy has recovered and the global growth outlook continues to improve. Indeed demand for commodities has not picked up meaningfully, in part because Chinese demand has not sharply rebounded……………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities likely to have another muted year

Posted on 21 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The global economic recovery might be gaining steam, but Capital Economics is forecasting commodity prices are likely to remain flat in 2014. Commodity prices have struggled to post gains for the past three years, notes Julian Jessop, chief global economist at Capital Economic.
That has led some analysts to predict prices will rebound this year, but he is skeptical. “There is no fundamental reason why the underperformance of commodities relative to equities cannot be sustained for another year, given the prospects for supply,” he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What happens after the shale revolution?

Posted on 21 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said he viewed the increase in U.S. oil production as a new source of supply that will help stabilize oil markets. Oil from shale is providing a buffer against an unsteady Middle East market, but it’s not too early to consider what happens to markets after the revolution.
Naimi said during a meeting in Riyadh with U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz the increase in U.S. oil production was adding a level of stability to an international oil market unsettled by problems in the Middle East and North Africa………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Precious metals: Reversal of fortune at last?

Posted on 21 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s always amazing to me how market sentiment can move from one extreme to the other, taking the herd with it. Chartology is the study of charting and investor psychology which, when you put two together, can give one an edge on where you are at any given point within a bear or bull market.
Back in the first week December of 2012 the sentiment was very bullish for the precious metals sector, especially the precious metals stocks. Gold and silver both had rebounded off of the bottom rails of their six point blue rectangles which had been building out since they both topped out in 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia still doesn’t care about the US shale boom

Posted on 20 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With US shale production booming, Saudi Arabia might be on the brink of losing its position as the world’s second biggest oil producer. But apparently, the Saudi Kingdom isn’t all that concerned.
After a recent meeting with the US energy secretary in Riyadh, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said his country “welcomes this new source of energy that helps fulfil the growing world demand for energy, and helps stabilise oil markets,” AFP reported………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Chinese new year no guarantee for galloping gold price

Posted on 20 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What should gold investors expect from the Chinese New Year at the end of this month? First, expect lots of press coverage of housewives buying gold hand over fist to mark the start of the year of the horse.
Expect to learn that China is (drum-roll please) the world’s No.1 consumer, but not why (thank the 2013 collapse of Indian imports due to government rules). The lunar New Year marks an auspicious time to buy gold, you’ll be told. It also marks a retail frenzy, pictures from Shanghai and Shenzen shopping malls will show………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Immense challenges for world hunger: agriculture ministers

Posted on 20 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Resource scarcity, climate change and loss of soil fertility create uncertainty endangering investment in agriculture. Efforts to rid the world of hunger face immense challenges as farmers deal with resource scarcity, climate change and loss of soil fertility, agriculture ministers from 65 countries said.
Economic and financial crisis and excessive price swings create uncertainty that endangers investment in agriculture, the policy makers gathered in Berlin wrote in a joint statement published by the German agriculture ministry………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Afraid of stocks? Commodities are one place you can look

Posted on 17 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With the growing number of calls for a significant stock market pullback ahead, one area likely to start seeing investor inflows is commodities. The space has suffered a rough couple of years as the so-called Commodity Supercycle broke down.
Strong supplies of various crops, wobbly global economic growth and a meltdown in gold and other metals caused prices to sag and money to flow to equities. But the damage may have been done, setting the stage for a rebound. Experts see opportunities in metals outside gold as well as selected agricultural commodities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

EIA: U.S. oil renaissance stabilizes world oil prices

Posted on 17 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is telling us that not only did the oil production renaissance decrease our reliance on imported oil, but it also was successful in stabilizing world oil prices and making energy cheaper for Americans.
Oil prices in 2013 were around the same average annual levels of the previous 2 years. Further new pipeline and rail infrastructure helped to alleviate crude oil bottlenecks in the United States, pushing West Texas Intermediate oil prices in 2013 to almost their 2008 level and keeping Brent oil prices in toe as the EIA’s graph below indicates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Better year ahead for base metals: Barclays

Posted on 17 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities will fare better in 2014 than last year because of better demand prospects and a slower pace of supply growth, but investors in gold and silver should remain cautious and sell into rallies, says a new report from Barclays Capital Inc.
“We argue that commodity markets have not really been key beneficiaries of the Fed’s QE policy; thus, tapering in 2014 is unlikely to imply any meaningful pullback in commodity prices,” said analyst Sudakshina Unnikrishnan………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity funds face uphill struggle after dire 2013

Posted on 16 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity fund managers face an uphill struggle persuading investors to return to the unloved sector after an abject year in which just two actively managed funds in the 122-strong Lipper Global Commodity group made money.
Although a pick-up in economic growth is expected to boost demand this year, some commodities will remain hobbled by oversupply, making 2014 a crunch year for managers who need to convince investors the asset class can deliver………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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The only way is up for commodities

Posted on 16 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Numerous factors suggest commodity prices are poised for a cyclical recovery this year. First, commodities have underperformed in the past two years, restoring value to most. Also, artificial and temporary distortions keeping prices overextended have recently been eliminated.
The haven premium embedded in precious metals’ prices since the crisis of 2008 was dissolved in the past year, as demonstrated by the price of gold collapsing from almost $1,900 to about $1,200………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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A more optimistic year for commodities

Posted on 16 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

2014 could prove to be a fairly positive year for commodities according to Barclays, with global growth expected to move higher and the pace of commodity supply growth likely to ease. Tapering is unlikely to depress commodity prices, especially if expectations of stronger US growth come to fruition. The exceptions to this are gold and silver prices, which are likely to head lower as tail risks fade. On a relative sectoral basis, Barclays view base metals more positively vis-á-vis precious metals.
Supply risks are likely to dominate metals markets with Indonesia’s ore export ban to be implemented from 12 January. Nickel is likely to be the most vulnerable, and if the ban remains in place for long it will create a supply shock. High nickel stocks will be a finite buffer, but we think that nickel looks undervalued………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Coming ‘oil glut’ may push global economy into deflation

Posted on 16 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC spare capacity set to reach levels last seen in the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, analysts say. One piece of the jigsaw puzzle is missing to complete the deflation landscape across the West: a slide in oil prices. This is becoming more likely each month.
Turmoil across the Middle East and parts of Africa has choked supply over the past two years, keeping Brent crude near $110 a barrel despite a broader commodity slump. Cotton and corn prices have halved, as has the UBS index of industrial metals. Such anomalies rarely last………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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JPMorgan commodity risk higher in fourth-quarter

Posted on 15 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

JPMorgan Chase & Co slightly raised its commodity trading risk for the first time since last spring in the fourth quarter, even as it exits the physical commodities trading business, its quarterly results showed on Tuesday.
Value-at-Risk (VaR) in commodities at JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank, rose to $15 million in the fourth quarter, from $13 million, unchanged during the previous two quarters, and up $1 million from the fourth quarter of 2012. VaR is the most that can be lost on 95 percent of trading days within a given period………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities unlikely to find fiends in 2014

Posted on 15 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Andy Brunner, investment strategist with Morningstar OBSR, believes that the commodity sector will remain virtually friendless going into 2014. Oversupply has become an increasingly serious issue for a number of commodities, especially industrial metals and, for the two main metals, aluminium and copper, this is expected to undermine pricing through 2014.
The average year-end copper price forecast from the main investment houses we monitor is $6,750/tonne, some 5% below current spot price………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities set to boom in next phase of recovery, says Cantor

Posted on 15 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors should be shifting out of cyclical sectors and into natural resources and energy stocks that have lagged behind the market in the past couple of years, according to Charles Tan, investment companies analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald.
Tan says the rally in cyclicals that has dominated the past two years is nearing its conclusion and past economic cycles suggest commodities are about to rally hard next. Closed-ended funds sitting on large discounts are an excellent high-beta, high-yielding way to play this new trend, he explains………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Optimistic outlook for NZ commodities

Posted on 14 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Analysts are predicting a positive outlook for New Zealand-produced agricultural commodities in 2014 as demand continues to outstrip supply of dairy, beef and wool.
Milk powder prices should hold up “pretty well” this year and any significant easing would not occur until the second and third quarters of 2014, Rabobank director of dairy research Hayley Moynihan said. “Our commodity price in US dollars still has whole milk powder sitting at US$4500 per tonne by the time it gets to the third quarter of the year.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs

Posted on 14 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bad news for “gold-bugs”—bullion’s current beginning-of-the-year rally will not only lose steam, but prices could drop sharply by the end of 2014, according to Goldman Sachs’ Jeffrey Currie.
Currie, Goldman’s head of commodities research, told CNBC on Monday he had an end-of-year price target of $1,050 per ounce for gold, a 16 percent drop based from current prices of $1,251. The main culprit? Economic recovery………………………………………..Full Article: Source

New year may prove positive for commodities

Posted on 13 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For a major part, the year 2013 was characterised by several uncertainties covering global economic growth, geopolitics, monetary policy, currency dynamics and weather.
Mercifully, the current year has begun with a somewhat clearer picture. Although still not really back to trend, global economic growth has begun to gather momentum under the lead of the US. Geopolitical tensions stand substantially reduced although there is always an undercurrent of uncertainty………………………………….Full Article: Source

A more optimistic year for commodities

Posted on 13 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

2014 could prove to be a fairly positive year for commodities according to Barclays, with global growth expected to move higher and the pace of commodity supply growth likely to ease. Tapering is unlikely to depress commodity prices, especially if expectations of stronger US growth come to fruition.
The exceptions to this are gold and silver prices, which are likely to head lower as tail risks fade. On a relative sectoral basis, Barclays view base metals more positively vis-á-vis precious metals. Supply risks are likely to dominate metals markets with Indonesia’s ore export ban to be implemented from 12 January………………………………….Full Article: Source

The volatile Middle East; oil and turmoil

Posted on 10 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In recent history the Middle East has always been an area of turmoil, where wars came and went and conflicts were interrupted by long periods of stability and progress. That, regretfully, no longer seems to be the case.
Today, the turmoil remains and the stability that interjected itself between times of conflict and that allowed people in this region to overcome the difficulties of political instability and open warfare is becoming something of a rarity……………………………..Full Article: Source

Why this could be the year of the commodities comeback

Posted on 09 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities were not exactly the place to be in 2013. While the S&P 500 rose nearly 30 percent, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index dropped 3.5 percent. But in 2014, some investors are playing for that trade to turn around.
“I do think there are some reasons why you could be somewhat optimistic about the possibilities for commodities in 2014,” said James Paulsen, of Wells Capital Management, who expects the asset class to outperform stocks and bonds in 2014. “First of all, they got crushed over the last year and a half, and we kind of revalued the commodity market. So I think there’s good value here for the first time.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

EIA says OPEC oil production to continue to decline

Posted on 09 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC crude oil production will continue to decline by 0.5 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2014, as some OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia, reduce production to accommodate the non-OPEC supply growth in 2014, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook said.
EIA predicts OPEC oil production at 29.49 mbd in 2014 compared to 29.96 mbd in 2013. In 2015 EIA expects OPEC oil production to slightly increase to 29.51 mbd………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Indonesia ore ban to hit metals markets

Posted on 09 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It is a law that few people in the commodities industry expected to be enacted. But it now looks likely that Indonesia, one of the world’s most important sources of minerals used to produce industrial metals, will implement an export ban on unprocessed mineral ore.
Flows of nickel ore and bauxite are expected to stop, though the government in Jakarta is considering a range of exemptions, particularly for copper producers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Zinc or swim: Do base metals have a future?

Posted on 09 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

There are several long-term issues that impacted copper and the other base metal spaces in 2013, and those long-term issues will persist for the foreseeable future. Allow me to explain the basics via a few examples:
Indonesia recently stopped the export of intermediary products, such as pig iron nickel. The country’s leadership is increasingly practicing resource nationalism by restricting mining firms to in-house processing and to shipping only finished products. It is also unsettling that Intrepid Mines Ltd. lost control of its project this year to an Indonesian partner!……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Opec’s role as global oil policeman under threat

Posted on 08 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It has been a long time since Iran has been able to throw its weight around as an oil producer. American-led sanctions have cost Tehran as much as US$80 billion in lost oil revenues since 2012 and its rival Saudi Arabia has long controlled world prices with its dominance of Opec.
But the last meeting of oil producing nations in November was notable for its Iranian sabre rattling, with the country’s oil minister pledging to disregard Opec quotas of three million barrels per day (bpd) – regardless of the effect on global prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Economic shift away from China to the West will dictate commodity prices in 2014

Posted on 06 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The global economic narrative is changing rapidly, with the emphasis moving from Asia and the fast-growing markets in the East, back to the developed West. Commodities investors are shifting their strategic focus away from China for 2014 as they search out clues as to the direction of prices.
The global economic narrative is changing rapidly, with the emphasis moving from Asia and the fast-growing markets in the East, which have driven the commodities “super-cycle” over the past decade, back to the developed West………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World oil demand to grow in 2014: OPEC

Posted on 06 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With global economic growth in 2014 projected to increase to 3.5 per cent from 2.9 per cent in 2013, world oil demand is forecast to rise by one million barrels per day, according to the latest monthly bulletin of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
World oil demand is expected to grow by one million barrels a day (b/d) in 2014 compared with 900,000 b/d last year, supported by improved performances by the emerging economies and as the global economy continues to recover in general, it said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC refuses to fear America’s oil boom when it clearly should

Posted on 06 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

According to a recent article in Bloomberg, three of OPEC’s top producers have again rejected the idea that the organization needs to cut oil production in 2014. The oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait last month all noted that increased U.S. oil production wouldn’t be enough to overcome production losses in Iran and Libya.
In fact, the Saudi oil minister went so far as to say that the reason U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude has been trading near $100 recently is “because the market is in fear of a shortage of oil and not in fear of oversupply.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Will the Mexican oil bubble burst before its even begun?

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Recent reforms that would open oil exploration and development in Mexico to major oil companies for the first time in decades has the media all atwitter about the prospects of a reversal in declining Mexican oil output and a possible doubling of production.
The reforms have brought out comparisons with Brazil which has a similar arrangement in which the country’s state-owned oil company works with major international oil giants to develop Brazil’s petroleum resources. Adding to the frothy atmosphere, former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva proposed a partnership between Mexico and Brazil to develop oil resources in both countries………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities post first drop in 5 years as corn to gold tumble

Posted on 02 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities posted the first annual drop in five years as supply exceeded demand for corn to sugar to nickel and investors lost faith in precious metals as a store of value amid signs that economies are improving.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials fell 0.6 percent to settle at 632.29 at 4 p.m. New York time, capping a 2.2 percent decline this year. Corn led the retreat with a 40 percent plunge, followed by silver and gold. Commodity-fund investments fell by a record $88 billion to $332 billion in the 11 months ended Nov. 30, Barclays Plc estimates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why 2014 could be good for commodities

Posted on 02 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

If you are looking for a way to diversify your portfolio in 2014, commodities can be a good idea. But before you invest in this asset class, be sure to do a little homework first. Here are a few things to know about investing in commodities.
What Are Commodities? A commodity is a good or service without qualitative differentiation that supplies a basic consumer market demand. In different words, commodities can come in various forms or types but each commodity within a certain class or group is not fundamentally different than other commodities in that particular class or group………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Whither gold in 2014?

Posted on 02 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As we draw to the close of another very disappointing year for the gold investor, one might ask how much further the yellow metal has to fall before making something of a sustained recovery. And while our track record on gold price prediction may have been pretty good prior to 2012, since the start of that year it has been decidedly out of sync with reality. Perhaps one can do better in the current year?
On a basic reading of the current situation vis-à-vis gold, one might suggest that, in 2014, gold will end the year at a higher price level than it will likely begin it, but that does not necessarily mean there won’t be a few difficult months ahead before things start to get better………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Demand for commodities expected to receive a boost in 2014

Posted on 30 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A resource analyst says he expects to see modest rises to commodity prices in 2014. David Lennox from the wealth management firm Fat Prophets says China’s economic growth should remain stable next year, providing a demand for Australian mining exports, and pushing up commodity prices.
He believes growth in the US economy will also create a positive trend in the market, but warns that could also push up the US dollar. “We do see perhaps some headwinds in terms of the US currency as the US economy does start to improve,” he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

‘Rude awakening’ for commodities in 2014: Pro

Posted on 30 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Most commodities are headed for sluggish price action in 2014 due to weak global demand, Citigroup’s Ed Morse said Monday. “The period of high prices led to an incredible—in fact, a record—amount of investment on the supply side,” he said. “So, we’re having significantly more supply across most commodities, and demand is not rising at the rate it was.”
On CNBC’s “Halftime Report,” Citi’s global head of commodities research said that a slowdown in Asia would push prices lower. “China’s not falling apart,” he said. “But the fact is that China growing at 7 to 7½ percent is not like China growing at 10 to 12 percent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities rush loses lustre for Wall Street

Posted on 30 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The veteran banking analyst Brad Hintz published a set of research reports in 2005 about commodities trading at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
“With every near-term event that caused volatility in the late 1990s and so far in the 2000s, the environment has been tailor-made for these two firms to coin money in their commodities books,” wrote Mr Hintz, of Bernstein Research………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price forecast for 2014

Posted on 30 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

According to a recent Gold Survey published by Thomson Reuters GFMS the price for gold is expected to fall, due to rising interest rates and the expected withdrawal of monetary stimulus programs. But what happens if the stimulus isn’t withdrawn?
The average price predicted by market participants surveyed by Reuters is $1,350 per ounce which is 7% less then the average price of 2013 but $150 more than the current spot price.”Although the Fed tapering has been priced in already by the gold market, that is not to say that you won’t be getting a bit of a wobble as of when it is announced,” Rhona O’Connell, head of metals research and forecasting said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Price of gold in 2014: More declines to come?

Posted on 30 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

This has been a terrible year for gold, with the SPDR Gold Trust and spot gold prices falling by more than 25%. Many gold-mining stocks have suffered even larger declines, as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF lost more than half its value this year.
But with gold just barely hanging above the $1,200-per-ounce level, do investors have any reason to hope that the price of gold in 2014 will bounce back after the first losing year for the yellow metal since the turn of the millennium? Let’s take a look at some of the factors that caused 2013’s declines and see if they’re likely to persist into 2014 and beyond………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC shipments seen stable as demand fades, Oil Movements says

Posted on 20 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep crude shipments stable through to early January as the first of two surges in winter fuel demand passes, according to tanker tracker Oil Movements.
OPEC, supplier of about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will boost sailings by 50,000 barrels a day, or 0.2 percent, to 23.98 million barrels in the four weeks to Jan. 4, the researcher said today in a report. That compares with 23.93 million in the period to Dec. 7. The figures exclude two of OPEC’s 12 members, Angola and Ecuador………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold gets back to bullish ways with lift from China

Posted on 19 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold may be slumbering, but when it awakens, watch out. I remain confident on gold’s future prospects thanks largely to China, the world’s No. 1 gold buyer. In October China bought a near-record 130 tons. In the first ten months of 2013 China bought more than 950 tons, making a 1,150 ton tally likely this year, far above past gold-buying records for any country, including gold-crazy India.
Remember, that covers only readily trackable gold passing through Hong Kong. China almost certainly imports still more through other conduits………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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