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The Shine May Be About to Come Off Gold

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold’s gilded run may be about to end. The precious metal rallied past $1,300 a troy ounce for the second day in a row Tuesday, prompted by a weaker dollar and buying from speculative investors.
But with the dollar’s recent decline viewed as overdone by some analysts and the likelihood of short-term speculators cashing out of their investments, gold prices could slide lower in the next few weeks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Falling Commodity Prices Leave India With Huge Subsidy Bill

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The nose-dive in global commodity prices has had an unexpected repercussion in India: a giant new subsidy bill as New Delhi spends billions to mop up wheat, rice, sugar and cotton at government-fixed prices.
India guarantees minimum prices for certain crucial crops to protect its large population of poor farmers. When prices plunge, it has to buy more. It usually sells the commodities it collects at a loss—some to India’s needy and some on global markets. Some of the stockpile just rots in government warehouses………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Get Ready for China’s Commodities Crash

Posted on 02 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China’s commodities rally has extended beyond its futures market into equities. But now the government is putting on the brakes—and investors could be hit hard.China’s commodity futures markets are looking like its stock markets a year ago, when hordes of investors bet huge sums, setting the stage for a painful crash.
Money started to pile into metals futures in March, after China’s rubber stamp National People’s Congress expanded the country’s fiscal deficit to pump up growth, and approved reforms to reduce overcapacity in the steel and coal industries. Trading momentum got a further boost after China’s real estate market showed green shoots in the form of home-price increases in lower-tier cities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Did OPEC Just Start Preparing for the End of the Oil Era?

Posted on 29 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Sunday, April 17, was the designated moment. The world’s leading oil producers were expected to bring fresh discipline to the chaotic petroleum market and spark a return to high prices.
Meeting in Doha, the glittering capital of petroleum-rich Qatar, the oil ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), along with such key non-OPEC producers as Russia and Mexico, were scheduled to ratify a draft agreement obliging them to freeze their oil output at current levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

For commodities markets, the bad times are just beginning

Posted on 28 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For the commodities market, the good times have come and gone, but the bad times are only just beginning. Each commodities supercycle, defined as a decadelong bull market, has always been followed by a downturn that lasted just as long, or longer.
With demand weak and oversupply rampant, it is unlikely that this time will be any different. For many countries and companies, this means the only options are adapt or die………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity hedge funds are hot again

Posted on 27 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity hedge funds netted more investor cash in the first quarter than any other type of hedge fund, and their $4 billion of inflows was their largest for any quarter in more than six years. The group has brought in more money that it has had to redeem for seven straight months, the longest winning streak ever tracked by eVestment.
The quarter has brought a turning point for commodity markets. Oil and gold have had their sharpest rallies in years amid broad gains in the sector. They boosted commodity hedge funds to returns of 1.6% in the quarter, besting all peers except currency and financial derivatives traders, eVestment said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

These 5 Trends in China Will Change the Gold Market Forever

Posted on 27 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Apple spent about five years developing the iPhone, which has changed the smartphone market forever. Until the release, however, nobody could imagine what impact the iPhone would have on the market. And most consumers didn’t know about it at all.
The same thing is happening with China and gold right now. The gold market will soon be very different than from what we see today—largely due to the current developments in China. China’s influence will impact not just gold investors but everyone who has a vested interest in the global economy, stock markets, and the US dollar. After all, China will be a dominant force in all, as most analysts project………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China clamps down on commodities frenzy

Posted on 26 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China moved to clamp down on excessive speculation in commodities on Monday after weeks of frenzied trading boosted prices and ignited fears of another bubble in its domestic markets. Activity on China’s largest commodity exchanges has surged in recent days with turnover in key steel contracts exceeding the combined volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges on one day last week.
Investors around the world have zeroed in on the latest trading binge as the prices of many commodities have risen sharply, with iron ore gaining almost a third in just two weeks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bullish Sentiment On Commodities Remains Tentative

Posted on 25 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The commodity squeeze higher continues as nearly all sectors are seeing better pricing despite the continued oversupply and less than stellar global economic performance. The shift seems to be driven by the crude oil recovery following the failed attempt at a unilateral production freeze at the beginning of last week.
That bearish news was brushed aside almost immediately, as the market spent the majority of the week trading higher on some sketchy fundamentals. The strike in Kuwait that reduced production has already ended, and any future hope for a production agreement at the June OPEC meeting appears to be empty speculation as the key players continue to threaten production increases………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Back in Fashion? Why Precious Metal Has Made an ‘Amazing Comeback’

Posted on 25 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is coming back into fashion: ‘left for dead’ for almost four years it’s up over 50 percent this year, Manhattan-based financial writer Michael Brush notes. Does it mean the precious metal is ‘back for good’?
Gold has always been regarded as a secure haven for wealth and has played an insurance role in portfolios. “Gold has always played an insurance role in portfolios — against global disaster, geopolitical meltdown or inflation,” Manhattan-based financial writer Michael Brush writes in his article for MarketWatch.com………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Make a Comeback as Bad Weather Meets Chinese Demand

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities are roaring back. Soybeans are approaching a bull market on bad weather in South America, and silver crossed that threshold earlier this week. Iron ore jumped above $70 a metric ton and copper is near a one-month high on signs of improving Chinese demand. A Vietnam drought boosted coffee prices. Oil is trading near levels not seen in five months.
Put it all together, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 15 percent since Jan. 20 and heading for a third week of gains. The gauge, which tracks returns for 22 raw materials, slipped 0.2 percent on Thursday as oil, coffee and nickel retreated………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Fallen angels: Downgrades surge amid commodities rout

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

More companies were tossed into the investment junkyard during the first three months of this year than in all of 2015, as weak commodity prices helped to undermine once-solid corporate balance sheets.
Moody’s Investors Service, one of the world’s largest credit raters, said in a report that it pushed 51 companies out of its investment-grade category during the first quarter of 2016, a reflection of their increasing risk of default. By comparison, Moody’s downgraded only 45 companies to below investment-grade status during all of last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Agricultural commodities rebound

Posted on 21 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Soybeans climbed higher than $US10 a bushel for the first time since July, and corn topped $US4 a bushel as unfavorable weather in South America and an improving demand outlook for US supplies bolstered agriculture markets.
Dryness in Brazil is causing conditions to deteriorate for the country’s second corn crop, and the country suspended import tariffs for the next six months, signalling the grower may need to ship grain in. Flooding in Argentina, the world’s third-largest soybean grower, is expected to cut output of that crop by about 5 per cent, according to Oil World………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iraq Says OPEC Will Pursue Output-Freeze Talks at June Meeting

Posted on 20 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will resume talks at a meeting in June to reach an agreement on freezing oil output, Iraq’s governor to OPEC said just days after politics thwarted a deal to cap production and curb the global glut.
No deal will be possible without a change in “political positions,” Falah Al-Amri said on his Facebook page. Negotiations among 16 oil producers in Doha on Sunday ended without any accord after Saudi Arabia demanded all producers take part in a freeze………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver hits 11-month high. It’s up more than gold in 2016

Posted on 20 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

So much for the idea that silver is the “poor man’s gold.” Lately, silver has been on a hot streak — up 22% so far this year — making it one of the best investments of 2016. The rally has outshone gold’s 18% gain so far this year.
On Tuesday, silver shot up 4.5% to its highest level in 11 months. The price of silver has always been just a fraction of gold’s, but precious metal experts have pointed out for weeks — if not months — that silver has been trading a real bargain………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is the commodities rebound over?

Posted on 19 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The collapse of talks in Doha on April 17 among major oil producers aimed at freezing output levels and curbing the global supply glut has renewed broader concerns about the state of the global commodities market.
The meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as non-OPEC oil producing nations in the Qatari capital was called to freeze oil production at the levels of early 2016, an agreement that would have been the first global oil deal in about 15 years. But Iran’s withdrawal from the talks at the last minute triggered Saudi Arabia’s refusal to sign the draft agreement to halt production at January levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What Doha Couldn’t Do for Oil Market, Kuwait Does by Accident

Posted on 19 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After months of preparation, talks between producers in Doha failed to deliver anything to end the global oil glut. Yet, Kuwait has managed that by itself in just a few days.
A labor strike that began Sunday has slashed the Persian Gulf nation’s output by 60 percent, shuttering 1.7 million barrels a day — slightly more than the surplus sloshing around world markets in the first half of the year. That oversupply caused prices drop to a 12-year low in January………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What Doha Couldn’t Do for Oil Market, Kuwait Does by Accident

Posted on 19 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After months of preparation, talks between producers in Doha failed to deliver anything to end the global oil glut. Yet, Kuwait has managed that by itself in just a few days.
A labor strike that began Sunday has slashed the Persian Gulf nation’s output by 60 percent, shuttering 1.7 million barrels a day — slightly more than the surplus sloshing around world markets in the first half of the year. That oversupply caused prices drop to a 12-year low in January………………………………………..Full Article: Source

PE opportunities switching to base metals

Posted on 19 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The 16% gold price in 2016 has sent stock market valuations soaring higher and the improved margins have provided gold counters with more flexibility in terms of their finances. As a result, the need to complete deals in order to secure much needed funds has become less urgent.
Isser Elishis, chief investment officer of North America’s Waterton Global Resource Management told Bloomberg the best investment opportunities are currently in base metals and that he expects to do half-a-dozen transactions in this space this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

G20 worried by ‘modest’ global growth, commodities weakness

Posted on 18 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Financial leaders from the Group of 20 nations said on Friday they were heartened by a recent recovery in financial markets, but warned that global growth was “modest and uneven” and threatened by weakness in commodities-based economies.
In a communique issued after their meeting in Washington, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors repeated their pledge to refrain from competitive currency devaluations, but offered no new initiatives to keep growth from stalling. The G20 officials took a slightly more positive view on financial markets, which they said had mostly recovered from sharp selloffs earlier this year and were in better shape since they last met in Shanghai in February………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Making Africa work: The continent’s future depends on people, not commodities

Posted on 15 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Only a few years ago people were queuing up to invest in Africa. As recently as 2012 Zambia paid less than Spain to borrow dollars. Private-equity funds dedicated to Africa raised record sums to invest in shopping malls and firms making everything from nappies to fruit juice.
Businessfolk salivated at the prospect of selling to the fast-growing African middle class, which by one measure numbered 350m people. Miners sank billions into African soil to feed China’s appetite for minerals. Now investors are glum. In the short run, they are right to worry. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

India To Surpass China As ‘Main Engine’ Of Global Oil Demand Growth

Posted on 15 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

India could soon overtake China as the country with the biggest thirst for crude oil. The South Asian nation is on track to replace China as the world’s top driver of demand growth for oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday in its monthly oil market report. As its population swells and economy expands, India could see growth of around 300,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016, the strongest volume increase for the country.
Those gains will help offset some of the sluggish demand for oil in China, the United States and much of Europe, the Paris-based watchdog group said. Growth in global oil demand is expected to ease to around 1.2 million barrels a day in 2016, about one-third less than 2015’s expansion of 1.8 million barrels a day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IMF Downgrades Global Economic Outlook For 2016 and 2017

Posted on 13 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Once again the global economy is not as strong as initially expected, as the International Monetary Fund has downgraded its outlook for this year and next. Tuesday, in its spring World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that it expects the world economy to expand by 3.2% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017. This is down from its previous forecasts of 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively.
“The global recovery has weakened further amid increasing financial turbulence. Activity softened toward the end of 2015 in advanced economies, and stresses in several large emerging-market economies showed no signs of abating,” the IMF said in its executive summary………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World’s Top Traders Say the Worst Is Over for Oil

Posted on 13 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Top executives at the world’s largest oil-trading houses said the worst of the market’s woes are probably over, with some predicting prices will climb to $50 a barrel by next year. “The down market is behind us,” Torbjorn Tornqvist, chief executive officer of Gunvor Group Ltd., said on Tuesday at the FT Global Commodities Summit in Lausanne. “It is the beginning of the end of that for sure.”
Oil has rebounded after falling to the lowest level in more than 12 years amid signs a global glut will ease as U.S. output declines. The world’s largest oil traders were meeting in Switzerland as members of OPEC and other major producers prepare to assemble in Doha on April 17 to discuss an output freeze. Oil traders benefited from a surge in volatility last year and that should continue, according to Tornqvist………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will Gold Continue to Shine?

Posted on 13 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The price of gold glittered in early 2016, soaring 17 percent in the first quarter and trouncing returns in major stock and bond indices. Global investors pumped money into the gold market, a traditional safe-haven investment, early in the year as equity markets crashed in a short-lived correction. Stocks have since recovered, but gold hung onto most of its gains.
Gold soared to a 13-month high in February, climbing just above $1,280 per ounce. The rising price trend in gold is being supported by a variety of factors, according to the World Gold Council. These include concerns about emerging market growth, a hiatus in the U.S. dollar’s rise, negative interest rate policies at leading central banks and investment demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World’s poorest countries rocked by commodity slump and strong dollar

Posted on 11 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Jubilee Debt Campaign warns that developing countries are struggling to make debt payments as revenues deteriorate. The collapse in global commodity prices and a stronger US dollar have depleted the public coffers of some of the world’s poorest countries and will leave them as much as $61bn (£43bn) worse off this year, a report has warned.
The Jubilee Debt Campaign said that countries that relied on exports of commodities such as metals and oil had seen government revenues hit by a global markets rout last year that knocked the prices of crude oil, iron ore, copper and other raw materials to multi-year lows………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities rally: False dawn or new beginning?

Posted on 11 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After a turbulent start to the year, Asian equities have made a comeback. This optimism can be credited to fading risks of a sharp Chinese yuan depreciation, US recession, and weakening regional currencies. But the most surprising development in a month of reversals has been the commodities rally, which has helped drive Asian equities up about 16 per cent since its January lows.
Commodity prices have roared to life after four years in the doldrums. Gold climbed 19 per cent to reach its recent peak and outperformed all other asset classes this year. Oil prices hit a three-month high in March. Industrial metals, led by iron ore prices - up nearly 45 per cent from last December’s low - have rallied as well. Some believe the storm has passed, pointing to an unexpected surge in Chinese construction activity as evidence for a sustained commodities rebound………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity groups confront new reality

Posted on 11 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Downturn is forcing change and, for some businesses, 2016 will be about ‘being boring’. When the world’s most powerful commodity traders and executives gather on the shores of Lake Geneva this week, they will reflect on a market that has tested their businesses to the limit.
One year ago at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit, some of the delegates were prepared to bet that the worst of the commodity downturn was over. But on Tuesday and Wednesday at the Beau Rivage Hotel in the Swiss city of Lausanne, they will debate how to respond to a prolonged slide that has dragged oil down to $40 a barrel and copper to its lowest since the financial crisis………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Sees Safe-Haven Demand on European Union Worries

Posted on 08 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A feature in the world marketplace Thursday is the rally in the gold market. Safe-haven demand has again surfaced for the yellow metal as a referendum in the Netherlands on European Union-Ukraine trade relations has failed, prompting more concerns about the U.K. referendum in June to opt out of the European Union.
A U.K. exit from the European Union could spell the eventual doom for the EU. A weaker U.S. dollar index that hit a nearly eight-month low Thursday is also a positive for the precious metals markets on this day. June Comex gold was last up $14.70 at $1,238.30 an ounce. May Comex silver was last up $0.166 at $15.22 an ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why oil price slump hasn’t boosted global economy – yet

Posted on 07 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs predicts rise back to $70 a barrel by the end of decade will drive improved growth. A steep and prolonged fall from grace for the international oil price, from around $115 a barrel in the summer of 2014 to as low as $27 earlier this year, was expected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to be a “shot in the arm” for the global economy, reports the Financial Times.
Oil has been stuck around $40 a barrel in recent weeks and was a little shy of $39 this morning. Last year, the IMF predicted a 0.5 per cent boost for every $20 drop. Instead, the fund this week warned that the already underwhelming global economic recovery is running out of momentum………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Brace for big commodities drop, traders warn

Posted on 05 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After a great few weeks for the commodities trade, it’s now time to get out, some strategists say. The commodities trade is “not only being hit cyclically, but it’s also being hit fundamentally, so I would expect a decline over the next month,” Phillip Streible of RJO Futures said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
Strong gains across oil, copper, gold and other commodities have made for a very profitable month for bulls. In fact, March was the first positive month for the S&P GSCI total return commodities index since October, and the best March since 2006………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities show signs of recovery hope

Posted on 04 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Have we hit the bottom yet? That seems to be the question of the moment. No one knows, although there are signs of hope. And there are also signs that this nascent mood of optimism is spilling over into commodities.
What to make of a week when one headline screams “Dow posts biggest quarterly comeback since 1933” (another version was: “The Dow is doing something it hasn’t done since 1933”)? They were talking about the fact that, in the last week of March, the Dow and the S&P 500 wiped out their losses for the quarter. Quite a performance, and thanks largely to the Federal Reserve more than hinting it was going dovish on further rate rises. So ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and NIRP (that’s negative interest rate policy) seem to be the new normal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Economy will take years to adjust to tumbling commodity prices, says BoC

Posted on 01 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Bank of Canada says poor prices for oil and other resources could become the “dominant source of drag” on the economy. Using its “best guess,” the Bank of Canada predicts the economy will take more than two years to fully adjust to the commodity price shock.
Lynn Patterson, the central bank’s deputy governor, said in a March 30 speech that tumbling oil and other resources prices have translated into losses of about $1,800 for every Canadian………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Where are Gold Prices Headed?

Posted on 31 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The best performing precious metal for the week was platinum, however still down -2.35 percent. Price action was driven by increased auto demand in the European Union, reports Market Realist, which rose 14 percent in February. Platinum and palladium is used in the production of catalytic converters.
Germany announced this week that it wants half of its gold reserves back by the year 2020, reports Bloomberg. Bundesbank, the country’s central bank (which has gold in London and New York), has repatriated 1,400 metric tons, or 41.5 percent, of Germany’s gold reserves to Frankfurt………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities may tumble amid ‘rush for exits’, says Barclays

Posted on 30 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities including oil and copper are at risk of steep declines as recent advances aren’t fully grounded in improved fundamentals, according to Barclays Plc, which warned that prices may tumble as investors rush for the exits. Copper may slump to the low $US4000s a tonne, from $US4945 in London last week, while oil could fall back to the low $US30s a barrel, analyst Kevin Norrish said in a note.
The risk for raw materials is that investors seek to liquidate bets on gains quickly and in unison, with potentially highly negative consequences, Norrish wrote in the note entitled Buffalo Jump, a term that describes a cliff where North American natives herded bison to their death………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities rebound seen faltering as demand stalls

Posted on 30 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Prices for copper and oil are poised to fall, according to a new report that adds to the growing skepticism around the great commodity revival. Kevin Norrish, a widely followed analyst with Barclays PLC, warns that raw materials prices could get trampled if the buyers who have piled into the commodity sector during recent weeks decide to simultaneously rush for the exits.
“Investors have been attracted to commodities as one of the best performing assets so far in 2016,” he said. “However, in the absence of any concerted fundamental improvements, these returns are unlikely to be repeated in the second quarter, making commodities vulnerable to a wave of investor liquidation.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

China investors drive gold price spike as bullion beats jewellery

Posted on 30 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Chinese investors have been snapping up gold bars and coins, overshadowing the usual purchases of gold jewellery and contributing to the metal’s price rise of about 15 per cent from six-year lows in December.
Typically, gold purchases in China are strongly associated with jewellery buying around the Lunar New Year holiday, which this year fell in early February. But uncertainty confronting global economies along with forces in Chinese markets have driven up gold demand from a different sort of buyer: the hard-nosed investor………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Barclays warns of a “rush for the exits” on commodities

Posted on 29 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Analysts at Barclays have warned of a “rush for the exits” as investors back away from commodities, resulting in price levels for oil and copper dropping as much as 25pc. A note issued by the bank said that although investors have been attracted to commodities as one of the best performing assets so far in 2016, returns are unlikely to be sustained in the second quarter of the year.
“This could make commodities vulnerable to a wave of investor liquidation that we estimate could, in a worst case scenario, knock as much as 20-25% from current price levels,” the note said. This would take the price of oil back to the low $30s and copper to the low $4,000s, the analysts said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bears are fleeing the oil market at a record pace, but that’s no reason to be bullish

Posted on 29 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil enthusiasts haven’t been jumping on board the latest rally. As crude has soared 50 per cent since Feb. 11, the number of bets on increased prices has barely budged. Instead, the upward pressure on prices appears to have come from traders cashing out of bearish wagers at an unprecedented pace.
The liquidation of short positions during the last seven weeks covered by data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission was the largest on record. “The rally has come from shorts getting scared out of their positions, and you’re not seeing a lot of money coming in on the long side,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York hedge fund focused on energy. “It really calls into question the fortitude and staying power of the rally.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

China mutual funds turn to commodities, bet on reforms

Posted on 29 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China’s mutual fund industry is pushing to develop investment products linked to local commodity futures, betting that plans to fight chronic oversupply in the country’s mammoth resource sector will drive up prices for raw materials.
The funds want to branch out beyond their traditional focus on stocks and fixed-income, with no immediate upturn in sight in the wake of turmoil last year that pulled down share markets by nearly 50 per cent and forced bond yields to multi-year lows………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities rebound outruns fundamentals

Posted on 24 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities have always been cyclical, but already this year we have seen two distinct mini-cycles — down in January, recovering in February and March. Of course, fundamentals do not change that quickly, but sentiment certainly can. In particular, Chinese sentiment has turned around sharply — from the lowest point in the history of Macquarie’s China steel and copper surveys in January into positive territory.
So how should we view what has happened recently? Have fundamentals improved? Yes, from an extremely low base in December and January there has undoubtedly been a demand recovery………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity Volatility to Continue –Citi

Posted on 24 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A tightening oil market and shifting sentiment on commodities in China is lifting all markets, but a rough ride ahead is still in the cards, Citigroup says.
Supply disruptions and the first monthly draw on storage levels in a year in February helped oil. And commodities got a broad boost from “perplexingly huge imports” for oil, copper, iron ore and other raw materials in China, Citi says………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rally to gather pace for industrial commodities

Posted on 24 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Will the recovery in industrial commodity prices be sustained, asks Julian Jessop, chief global economist at Capital Economics.
The London-based research boutique, which for several months has been bullish on the sector, thinks that though “the foundations of the recovery still look a little shaky and some temporary pullbacks may be inevitable . . . the conditions for additional gains over the remainder of this year and next are gradually falling into place”………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity bulls twisting in the wind

Posted on 24 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

On Wednesday investors curbed their enthusiasm for commodities, sending everything from copper and gold to oil and iron ore sharply lower. But despite nervousness returning to metals and mining markets this week, 2016 is still looking decidedly better for the sector. Year to date gold is holding onto 15% gains, silver and platinum are up 10% while bellwether copper’s trading nearly 15% higher than its January lows.
Industrial metals have all advanced in 2016 led by zinc which has jumped by more than 20% in three months while volatile iron ore is the best performer with a 33.5% gain this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price stuck as IEA brands supply deal ‘meaningless’

Posted on 24 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global watchdog doubtful about April meeting while Commerzbank says market expectations are ‘hopelessly excessive’. The oil price is stuck at around $40 a barrel and may even move lower in the next month or so as optimism in the market rests on a deal to freeze supplies that the global energy watchdog has warned could be “meaningless”.
Since hitting multi-year lows early last month, oil has rallied by around 50 per cent. International benchmark Brent crude hit $27 a barrel on 11 February and has hit several new 2016 highs in the past two weeks, with the latest coming on Tuesday, when it peaked at just shy of $41.80………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Positive signs for gold as markets tumble

Posted on 24 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold outperformed most other assets as global equity markets took a beating at the start of 2016, according to State Street Global Advisors. “We see encouraging signs that may support the gold market this year,” the firm said in a recent research note.
While interest rate hikes often exert some pressures on gold as bond yields rise and become more attractive to investors, the outlook of US rates remains uncertain after the first hike for nine years in December last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Cramer: Commodity rally could head higher

Posted on 23 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Since the market bottomed in mid-February, commodities have dramatically rebounded from their lows. Jim Cramer has watched as everything from copper, iron ore, aluminum to oil have worked their way higher. While the rally took a break on Tuesday, commodities have been on the decline for years, leading Cramer to ask if this is a genuine rally or simply a long overdue, oversold bounce.
Cramer turned to the help of Carley Garner to look at the charts and assess what the future of the commodity complex could look like. Garner is a technician and commodities expert who is the co-founder of DeCarley Trading and a colleague of Cramer’s……………………………………….Full Article: Source

How Commodity Prices Could End the Year Where They Started

Posted on 22 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities have flummoxed investors by swinging wildly in recent months, but prices could end the year right back where they began if global growth and the dollar stabilize, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The Dow Jones Commodity Index is now up 3.4% this year, though it’s down 17.5% over the past 12 months. Commodity prices have also been influential in the movement of other assets, with many looking at the connection between stocks and oil………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is now the time for commodity fans to use leveraged products?

Posted on 22 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Increasing numbers of investors are being tempted to dip their toe into the energy markets – and oil specifically – following the dramatic decline in commodity prices over the past 18 months.
Crude oil and natural gas prices more than halved as fears over slowing global growth, climbing inventories and a lack of intervention from oil cartel Opec have combined to push energy down to multi-year lows. With prices now at levels not seen since the early 2000s, investors have been increasing their exposure, in particular to oil which is one of the most accessible commodities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Are all commodities heading higher?

Posted on 21 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A massive run-up in several groups of raw materials has traders, speculators, and the producers of commodities wondering if our U.S. economy has finally turned the corner. Instead of focusing on fears of deflation, the focus has shifted to the opposite investment debacle – how to adjust and invest as prices rise.
The value of gold, the world’s benchmark for inflation, is up a whopping $200 per ounce since mid-December with the rise in silver and copper not far behind. Crude oil, the foundation of most of the Western world’s economies, bottomed around $26 per barrel in January and exploded over 50 percent in value as of Friday at $40………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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