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Brexit fallout, global commodity markets may remain volatile

Posted on 29 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

“Brexit”, the word continued to keep global markets involved and horrified from the past few days and when reality happened it spooked the financial world in a massive way. Britain is the first state to leave the 28-nation European Union since its foundation.
Now, the billion dollar question is that are the markets overreacting. Will it continue to impact on the trade behaviour? If so,… how long? As per estimates, $2.08 trillion has been wiped off from the global equity markets after Britain voted to leave the European Union………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How long Brexit uncertainty reigns is key for commodities, gold

Posted on 28 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Amid the horror for many, the elation for others and the shock for virtually everybody of the British vote to exit the European Union, perhaps the most measured and predictable response was from commodity markets. As it became clear on Friday that the Leave camp was going to pull off an unexpected victory, commodities did what they normally do in a period of heightened risk, they declined.
The outlier of course was gold, which also did exactly what it was expected to do by rallying strongly as investors sought the protection of what is still viewed by many as the ultimate safe-haven in times of crisis and uncertainty………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goodbye to OPEC?

Posted on 28 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Should the 169th OPEC meeting held earlier this month be its last? As former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill said, “To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often.”
For Saudi Arabia and the remaining Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and United Arab Emirates), which together account for around 40 percent of the world’s oil reserves and the lion’s share of OPEC’s collective output, their future oil strategy should be an exclusively GCC affair, away from the stress and dysfunction of OPEC………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How long Brexit uncertainty reigns is key for commodities, gold: Russell

Posted on 27 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Amid the horror for many, the elation for others and the shock for virtually everybody of the British vote to exit the European Union, perhaps the most measured and predictable response was from commodity markets.
As it became clear on Friday that the Leave camp was going to pull off an unexpected victory, commodities did what they normally do in a period of heightened risk, they declined. The outlier of course was gold, which also did exactly what it was expected to do by rallying strongly as investors sought the protection of what is still viewed by many as the ultimate safe-haven in times of crisis and uncertainty………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Brexit threatens London’s status as a markets hub

Posted on 27 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

London is the world centre of the complex plumbing of markets, but leaving the EU complicates that. The UK’s decision to leave the EU has already prompted dire warnings over the implications for the City of London’s position as one of the world’s biggest financial trading hubs.
François Villeroy de Galhau, Bank of France governor and ECB governing council member, said: “If tomorrow Britain is not part of the single market, the City cannot keep this European passport, and clearing houses cannot be located in London either,” he told French radio………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Exit signs lead to gold

Posted on 27 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

There was no place to hide when Brits did what all the smarties of the financial world said they would be mad to do when they voted to leave the European Union. But there was one big ­exception — the gold price.
The barbarous relic’s now informal role in the world’s monetary system as an effective hedge and safe haven was on full display when it became clear that the “leave’’ vote would carry the day, driving gold to as high as $US1358 an ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investors Map Post-Brexit Strategies Amid Global Market Upheaval

Posted on 27 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Britain’s vote to leave the European Union almost a quarter century after its creation with the Maastricht Treaty left global markets in disarray Friday. Today, investors start to figure out the way forward.
“Ultimately, we have no experience in what will happen next,” Glen Capelo, managing director at Mischler Financial Group Inc., who has spent the intervening years on various trading desks, said in a note to clients. “Twenty-three years of positions may now need to be unwound,” he added in an e-mail………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities and Brexit — 5 things to watch

Posted on 24 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As the UK begins voting in the EU referendum here are five things to watch in the commodities world. It’s a widely-held view among investors that gold would be among the big beneficiaries of a Brexit. Some analysts reckon the price could rise by as much as 10 per cent to $1,400 after a vote to leave as nervous investors pile in looking for safe places to park cash.
But there are also reasons for thinking gold, a good barometer of risk, could suffer, at least in the near-term. How markets react to Thursday’s vote is a huge unknown but one thing investors have learnt since the financial crisis is how quickly liquidity can dry up and impact markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The End of Economic Forecasting

Posted on 24 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The dominance of finance has made economic volatility the new normal. Why have economic forecasters recently been so wrong? Just two years ago, for example, the common perception was that the big emerging markets would drive global growth. That oil prices would remain above $100 per barrel.
That interest rates would move higher. All of these predictions have been wildly wrong. Yet these variances are neither a coincidence nor a temporary phenomenon. We have entered an age in which economic and financial forecasting is much harder and less reliable………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Leading index reveals commodity price burden is easing, says Westpac

Posted on 23 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

While the Australian economy still appears set for more sub-trend growth, a survey has found that sentiment improved in May as the commodity price burden began to ease.
The monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index showed that the expected six-month annualised growth rate, which assesses likely growth against the long-term trend, had improved from 1.19 per cent below trend in April to minus 0.42 per cent in May — the best reading since October. The index had bottomed in March at -1.53 per cent — its weakest print in five years — but has improved in ensuing months as commodity prices regained their footing………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What Could Brexit Mean For Precious Metals?

Posted on 23 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent narrowing of the Brexit polls has sparked retail gold buying in the UK, according to data from the GFMS team at Thomson Reuters. Additional expectations for precious metals around the EU Referendum follow below: Market uncertainty, such as the conditions experienced around Brexit, is likely to benefit the price of safe havens, crucially the U.S. Dollar and gold.
A more difficult call at this juncture is whether gold or the U.S. Dollar is seen as the chief beneficiary, with the latter being the case in the Greek crisis in 2011. On balance, GFMS expect gold to gain even in Dollar terms as any strength in the U.S. Dollar for this reason will lessen the chances of any imminent U.S. interest rate rises as the Fed would rapidly become concerned about the adverse trade effects of these exchange rate movements………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Donald Trump has commodity traders nervous, could impact ag commodities, says analyst

Posted on 22 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The controversial rhetoric of presumptive republican nominee Donald Trump has commodity traders nervous, according to one analyst. Pete Johnson, of marketing news publication Cotton Compass believes a Trump presidency could have a negative impact on the price of Australian agricultural commodities like beef, grain and fibre.
Mr Johnson, a market analyst, said Trump had so far shown himself to be hard to predict, which could put pressure on the US dollar and in turn, the international commodity market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why gold could crash or soar this week

Posted on 22 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Britons will go to the voting booth on 23 June in what could mark a historic date for the country, while the outcome could have a lasting impact on the global economy as a whole. Although much has been said and written about the potential Brexit, the consequences of a ‘leave’ decision are still unclear.
Overnight, for instance, George Soros warned that an exit from the EU risks ‘Black Friday’ for the United Kingdom, as reported by The Guardian, while others suggest that Brexit would be a complete non-event. One way or another, the upcoming referendum vote has created much uncertainty………………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities focus on looming Brexit vote

Posted on 20 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Market activity has increasingly been dictated or distracted by the uncertainty surrounding the UK referendum vote on June 23. Opinion polls indicating rising support for the Leave camp sent investors looking for cover with stocks falling and bonds rising.
This was followed on Wednesday by a distinctively dovish statement following the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The FOMC lowered its projection of its own interest rate path with six members now only seeing one rate hike in 2016………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World waits for global commodity bubble to deflate

Posted on 17 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

When the Federal Reserve raised rates in December, it thought the fallout would be minimal. It had telegraphed the increase for a year and it was, after all, just a quarter of a percentage point. Yet since then both the US and, even more so, the global economies have slowed. The reason isn’t because a quarter-point rate increase by itself represents a stringent tightening of monetary policy.
Rather, it brought to an end seven years of unprecedented monetary ease that had helped fuel a global commodity bubble. That bubble began deflating in 2014 and the effects are now being felt around the world and washing back on the US………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China Plans to Boost Metals Reserves Amid Commodities Glut

Posted on 17 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China, the world’s top consumer of base metals, will boost stockpiles, accelerate the closure of excess capacity and provide tax breaks for producers as the country grapples with a raw-materials glut amid the slowest growth in decades.
The nation will increase reserves of some metals and study a trial program for companies to build stockpiles in addition to their inventories, according to State Council guidelines posted on its website Thursday. China already holds stockpiles of metals though the State Reserve Bureau. The statement from China’s cabinet didn’t specify a timeline or say how the plan would be financed………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC’s Chasm of Doom

Posted on 17 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC’s members are divided by many things: language; size; politics; sometimes outright war.And money. Don’t forget money.If you want to understand why OPEC has responded to its current crisis with all the cohesion of cat herding, some numbers in the Energy Information Administration’s “OPEC Revenue Fact Sheet,” published on Tuesday, provide some important clues.
First up, estimated revenue, adjusted for inflation: OPEC’s real net oil export revenue is expected to be the lowest since 2003. The estimate for this year, $337 billion in real terms, is barely a third of 2012’s peak — and, uncannily, exactly the same as the consensus forecast for the combined revenue of Exxon Mobil and Chevron in 2016………………………………………..Full Article: Source

These two commodities will get a boost from Brexit

Posted on 17 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Most investors anticipate a global selloff and flight to safety in the event of a British exit from the European Union, but two commodities are expected to rally. The cocoa and U.K. natural-gas markets are two of the last remaining commodities contracts still denominated in sterling. Most commodities, from oil to copper to gold, are priced in dollars.
If Britain votes to leave the EU, the pound is expected to plummet, boosting these commodities by making them cheaper in other currencies. A vote to exit the EU would cause a sharp rally in the London-traded cocoa contract, said Max Goettler, a trader at Cocoanect in Rotterdam………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rare-earth metal prices climb as China builds reserves

Posted on 16 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

International spot prices for rare-earth metals are rising amid moves by China to stockpile those key materials for high-tech consumer electronics and hybrid vehicles.
Neodymium, which is used in high-performance magnets, is selling for around $56 per kilogram — up 10% from a month ago and the highest since July 2015. Dysprosium prices have climbed 3% from the previous month to $265 per kilogram, while prices of terbium, a phosphor raw material, have increased 11% to around $570 per kilogram………………………………………..Full Article: Source

BMO: Silver Lagging Gold But Expected To Continue Moving Higher

Posted on 15 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Analysts at BMO Capital Markets say silver has been lagging gold again lately, but they expect silver to continue moving higher later this year. “There continues to be profit taking in silver, while gold speculative positions are seeing growing longs again,” BMO says.
“Earlier this year, silver prices lagged gold by about six weeks due to uncertainty around industrial activity globally. However, we note that the negative sentiment towards industrial demand has eased somewhat, especially given the outperformance of the steel complex.” The firm says silver industrial demand tends to be “sticky,” although this is often overlooked by markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Fluctuating Commodities: How They Impact Businesses and What You Can Do

Posted on 14 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The volatility of the commodities market can be extremely difficult to manage as a company. The cost of goods can fluctuate immensely, which can be devastating to those predicting profits. This can also eat away at profit margins slowly and a smaller company can quickly become unprofitable.
Most people do not realize the impacts that commodities have on everyday life. The prices of good we buy or ship are impacted on a daily basis along with the jobs that we have. The following are some ways to deal with fluctuating commodities in order to secure a business………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IMF Warns Canada Recovery Faces Commodity Risks

Posted on 14 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Canada is undergoing a modest economic recovery but faces increased risks from a long period of lower commodity prices and a possible housing downturn in two of the country’s biggest cities, the International Monetary Fund said Monday.
For now, Canada is adjusting to the recent drop in the price of crude oil, a top Canadian export, the IMF said in its latest update on the country’s economy. However, the agency said uncertainty about future oil prices and further turbulence in China are the biggest external headwinds for the Canadian economy. It warned the fallout from lower commodity prices continues to play out………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How OPEC lost its iron grip on oil prices

Posted on 13 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

When his final press conference as secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries came to an end last week, Abdallah Salem el-Badri finally addressed the whispers that have been circulating throughout the oil markets.
Energy industry observers are howling that “OPEC is dead,” El-Badri acknowledged, after the group again failed to reach an agreement to cap oil production that would bolster sagging prices. His frustration was evident. “I have heard this comment maybe five, six times in my career,” he told reporters in Vienna. “Don’t take that notion that OPEC is dead. OPEC is alive. OPEC will be a very important segment of the economy, of the world.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Billionaire Investors Back A Gold Price Rally In 2016

Posted on 10 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It wasn’t so long ago that some of the more famous investor gurus were shrugging off gold as nothing more than shiny trinkets with no investment value. They were wrong. This safe haven is back, the recovery is clear, and there have been some very big changes of heart.
The biggest gold producers in the world have seen their share prices double this year. Not only are gold prices soaring, but producers are cutting costs and slimming down debt as they pave the way for gold to return to the top of the favored commodities list………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold is sending a warning signal: Bouroudjian

Posted on 10 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent action in the gold market is sending out a big warning signal that investors need to heed, veteran industry insider Jack Bouroudjian said. That “red flag” is the acceleration of the move higher in gold over the last couple of months, which he believes is telegraphing a loss of confidence in central banks.
“It may have started out as a reinflation trade, but right now it is turning into that flight to quality and flight to safety. It is one of those things that is more than likely going to stop any kind of a move in equities,” the co-founder and director of UCX said……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Agri-Commodities Winning in 2016

Posted on 10 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The inevitable just seems to keep coming around. That over time food would become scarcer in our world has been well known for decades. Simply put, global demand for food continues to expand. Inevitable scarcity of food for the world is occasionally hidden by short-term bursts of exceptionally good harvests. But, exceptionally good is not a normal state for world’s Agri-Food production.
For much of the past year farmers have suffering financially from inadequate prices for their production. In 2016, that situation is apparently changing. Simply put, a stash of soybeans or sugar in the bowl on your table have outperformed equity markets. As can be observed in the lower part of chart, the average(mean) gain thus far is almost ten percent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Record fall in global coal consumption driven by low oil price

Posted on 09 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global consumption of coal fell by a record amount last year thanks to waning Chinese demand and increasing use of cheaper gas and oil, according to data from BP. The energy giant said that demand for oil, gas and renewable energy all increased last year despite sluggish economic growth but that there was a distinct shift away from coal, the most polluting of energy sources.
Oil increased its market share of global primary energy consumption for the first time since 1999, to 33pc, as low prices spurred demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Bank cuts global growth forecast on weak demand, commodity prices

Posted on 08 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The World Bank slashed its 2016 global growth forecast on Wednesday to 2.4 percent from the 2.9 percent estimated in January due to stubbornly low commodity prices, sluggish demand in advanced economies, weak trade and diminishing capital flows.
Commodity-exporting emerging market countries have struggled to adapt to lower prices for oil, metals, and other commodities, accounting for half of the downward revision, the multilateral lender said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report. It expects these economies to grow at a meager 0.4 percent pace this year, a downward revision of 1.2 percentage points from the January outlook………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil and iron ore surge in commodities ‘renaissance’

Posted on 08 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Analysts are calling a “renaissance” in commodities after oil climbed to a 10-month high overnight and as iron ore prices jumped further above the US$50-a-tonne threshold. On Tuesday night iron ore climbed a further 2.8 per cent to $US52.54, and is now up 9 per cent since after slumping to $US48.18/tonne last Thursday. Brent crude oil jumped 1.9 per cent overnight to $US51.49/barrel, as the US dollar continued to ease.
“It’s all about energy today, with US crude breaking out again and looking like a thing of beauty,” IG Markets strategist Chris Weston said Wednesday morning. “Further disruptions in Nigeria were cited, but the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly inventory print released this morning showed a massive drawdown of 3.56 million barrels.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities break into bull market, turning TSX into a global leader

Posted on 07 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities from oil to gold have ended their epic swoon – and, in the process, turned Canadian stocks into some of the world’s hottest offerings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks 22 raw materials, finished Monday more than 20 per cent above its low on Jan. 20, meeting the most common definition of a bull market.
The new exuberance in raw materials prices has shaken the Canadian stock market out of last year’s slump and transformed it one of the best-performing exchanges in the world so far in 2016. Monday’s trading extended the winning streak in the S&P/TSX composite index, which entered a bull market of its own late last week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

4 Reasons Commodities Will Push Higher

Posted on 07 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The bear turns bull. Here’s reason one the commodity bull will remain strong: markets overshoot. Reason two is that global interest rates remain low. Reason three lies in the economics of commodities. Reason four lies in the explosive population growth vs. finite raw materials.
Commodity markets are cyclical in nature. Each raw material market has its individual characteristics. So many factors contribute to whether the price of a commodity moves higher or lower. While commodity production is often a localized affair, consumption is ubiquitous………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Shale producers eye comeback with oil @ $50 sweet spot

Posted on 07 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Range of $50-$60/b marks sweet spot for global economy – good for consumers, industry, oil producers alike. Global oil prices slipped more than 1 per cent from above $50 to below that psychological mark as US drillers reopened some oil rigs last week – only the second time they’ve done so this year.
According to Baker Hughes data, US added 9 oil rigs last week, taking the number of active oil rigs in the country to 325 from 316 in the previous week. While the number still remains almost half of what it stood a year earlier (642 oil rigs in the US), it does suggest that the current oil prices are encouraging for shale oil producers to remain in business………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Sluggish Chinese manufacturing data weigh on commodity prices

Posted on 06 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Sluggish manufacturing data from China as well as renewed weakness of the renminbi weighed on commodity prices, fuelling concerns over the country’s demand for raw materials. Further evidence of slowing growth in China’s manufacturing sector unnerved investors, who have been hoping that the latest stimulus measures would help reboot activity in the second quarter.
The unofficial Caixin purchasing managers’ index, which provides a snapshot of operating conditions in the country’s industrial sector, fell 49.2 in May, slightly lower than the previous month, and below the neutral 50 level for the 15th successive month………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia And Iran Are Getting Ready For The Next Epic Battle In The Oil Market

Posted on 06 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For several months, long time enemies Saudi Arabia and Iran have been caught in an epic battle, and it has been taking oil prices on a roller coaster. Back in December and January, Saudi Arabia let markets perform their magic, drive oil prices to the mid-twenties, undermining Iran’s re-entry to the world oil markets; and shutting down a few dozen American oil rings in the process.
That was the first epic battle. With less oil flowing out of American rigs markets did their magic again, driving oil prices close to $50. Now Saudi Arabia and Iran are gearing up for the next big battle. Saudi Arabia wants OPEC to perform its old magic and drive oil prices higher, to pave the way for the Aramco IPO launch………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global oil giants seek inroads into India’s retail fuel market

Posted on 06 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global oil majors including Saudi Aramco and Total plan to tap the retail fuel market in India, its oil minister said on Friday, reflecting the expanding role of the world’s fastest-growing large economy on the global crude landscape.
India’s fuel markets could be a lucrative prize for the world’s oil majors as they seek outlets for their gasoline and diesel. India posted the fastest oil demand growth in the world in the first quarter of 2016 and is replacing China as the driver of growth globally, the International Energy Agency said in its latest report………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC states that wanted production cuts buckle under the new oil order

Posted on 02 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabia engineered OPEC’s policy to kill off U.S. shale oil production. The plan was straightforward: Keep pumping oil, maintain market share and outlast the Americans. But the plan is also producing casualties within the cartel itself: Angola, Nigeria and a Venezuela that’s on the verge of implosion.
Six months after OPEC left its high-production policy in place, some of the cartel members who called loudest for output cuts are feeling the most pain. Inflation is soaring and currencies have plummeted in lesser petro states, as top exporter Saudi Arabia continues to dictate policy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Price Forecasts Get More Bullish as Oversupply Concerns Ease

Posted on 01 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Analysts are again raising their oil-price forecasts, in a reflection of falling concerns over the glut in crude supply. That helps relieve the pressure on members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—who are set to meet on Thursday—following months of fervent debate over production levels within the cartel.
Investment banks surveyed by The Wall Street Journal raised their price forecast for the third consecutive month in May, predicting that Brent crude, the international benchmark, would average $43 a barrel in 2016. That is up $2 from April’s survey………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why the commodity slump could be a good thing for Africa

Posted on 31 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

There is an urgent need for diversification of Africa’s economies and while it is having an immediate negative effect, the recent commodities slump is beginning to drive change. For example, some investors in Nigeria who have historically thrown their lot behind the oil and gas industries are now looking to buy large tracts of agricultural land in a bid to mitigate the effects of the slump in the commodities sector.
After many years in the wilderness, the agricultural sector is fast emerging as one of the most attractive investment opportunities on the continent – and a sector where innovation and supportive policies can be harnessed to drive growth and jobs, so sorely needed across the continent since the Chinese and global economic slowdowns knocked commodity export opportunities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Does organic agriculture boost local economies?

Posted on 30 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For the first time, there is now evidence linking organic agriculture and economic health. The organic industry is one of the fastest-growing sectors of the United States food industry. Organic food sales grew 11 percent to almost US$40 billion in 2015, according to the Organic Trade Association (OTA), while the food market as a whole had a 3 percent growth rate.
This growth is partly because organic crops command a premium price over conventional crops—as demand for organic food rises, so does the interest in organic production from farmers and producers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil States Expected to Stick With Saudis : OPEC Reality Check

Posted on 30 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC members gathering in Vienna June 2 are expected to go along with a Saudi Arabia-led policy focused on squeezing out rivals amid signs the strategy is working. That means the meeting may be less fraught than the previous summit in December, which ended with public criticism of the Saudi position from Venezuela and Iran.
By allowing prices to fall, high-cost producers are being forced out, easing the supply glut and spurring a rally of 80 percent since January to about $50 a barrel. All but one of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will stick with the strategy. An alternative proposal — to freeze output — was finally rejected in Doha last month………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Are commodities signaling a Lehman-sized meltdown? Japan’s Abe thinks so

Posted on 27 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Only hours after Brent oil prices shot past $50-a-barrel for the first time in months, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned that the past few difficult years for commodities in general could be a red flag for another global financial crisis. Abe made the comments while hosting a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders on Thursday in Ise-Shima, Japan, according to a report from Reuters.
Abe showed his fellow leaders data charting a 55% drop in global commodity prices between June 2014 and January 2016. He said that’s similar to how much prices fell between July 2008 to February 2009 after Lehman Bros. went bankrupt and triggered a global financial crisis………………………………………..Full Article: Source

This is what makes OPEC even less relevant

Posted on 27 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A series of unexpected disruptions in the world oil market has driven crude to the $50 per barrel level more swiftly than expected — a factor that makes OPEC and its meeting next week less relevant. Both international Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures crossed above $50 Thursday, though analysts expect prices to temporarily head lower again in the next couple of months as some supply returns and demand drops off as it does every year after summer driving season peaks.
By year end, however, $50 or above is expected to be the norm. Oil production in the last several weeks has dropped by several million barrels a day due to everything from forest fires in Canada to rebel attacks in Nigeria………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China Wants to Set Prices for the World’s Commodities

Posted on 26 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China has put the world’s traditional financial centers on notice that it wants to develop its raw material markets as hubs for setting prices, seeking to marry the country’s commercial heft with a much greater say in determining how much commodities cost.
“We’re facing a chance of a lifetime to become a global pricing center for commodities,” Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s annual conference in the city on Wednesday. “On the way to realize this goal, we’ll see very intense competition. We have the advantage of trading size and economic growth, but our legislation is still not sound and we lack enough talent.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities on the rise?

Posted on 24 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Are commodities finally on the rise after years of being in the doldrums? We would all agree that prices in the grocery store continue to rise on many things, but commodity tracking indexes show quite a different story.
The most common method of tracking commodity prices is the CRB commodity index, a commodities future price index which presently tracks 19 common commodities, which include aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, lean hogs, live cattle, natural gas, nickel, orange juice, silver, soybeans, sugar, unleaded gas and wheat………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Are Weak Commodities Prices the New Normal?

Posted on 23 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Along with an increasingly optimistic outlook for commodities, especially for coal and base metals, this has led to some analysts claiming that both stocks will continue to rally. In fact, some analysts have gone as far as to claim that Teck’s price could even double over the course of 2016, making now the optimal time to invest. While there have been some positive developments for both companies and other mining stocks, the outlook is not as rosy as some analysts would have you believe.
The key driver for both of these companies’ recent rally and improving outlook is the price of commodities. Teck is highly dependent on the prices of metallurgical coal and copper to drive its financial performance. It obtains two-thirds of its revenue from those products………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Fever: Why Investors Rush to Buy Gold

Posted on 23 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Demand for gold rose by 21 percent in the first quarter of 2016. Recently, billionaire George Soros invested nearly $390 in gold stocks, having decreased investments in other assets. Shortly after, large hedge-funds followed the example of the legendary US investor.
Between January and March 2016, Soros Fund Management established by George Soros increased investments in gold market assets, according to the company’s data. Particularly, the fund bought shares worth $264 million in Canada’s company Barrick Gold, one of the world’s leading gold producers. It also bought an option for nearly 1.05 million shares ($123 million) in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s biggest gold exchange fund………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Kills US Shale Oil Industry and Buys it for Pennies

Posted on 20 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Saudi Kingdom saw American oil companies invest in the research and development of oil fields and fracking, and then crashed the market so they could scavenge US natural resources and technology on the cheap.
In 2015, the world stared into a global economic recession, with startling downgrades for Chinese economic growth due to an explosion in their stock market, fueled by speculative excess. While the Chinese economy roiled, unrest brewed in much of the world, including in the war-torn Middle East and on European shores, upon which refugees descended en masse. Even the US economy, once stoked by a shale oil renaissance, was not spared the effects………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What Does The Next OPEC Meeting Have In Store?

Posted on 20 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The next OPEC meeting on the 2nd of June will act as little more than a forum for continued altercations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The 2 June 2016 OPEC meeting will be held amid a backdrop of oil prices near $50 per barrel, a sharp drop in Nigerian production due to sabotage, turmoil in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia operating with a new oil minister, and Iran aggressively pumping close to pre-sanction levels.
OPEC interactions have become a direct altercation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with the remaining members reduced to mere observers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Bulls Could Lead M&A Stampede

Posted on 20 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold producers have a new spring in their step following a rebound in the value of the precious metal, and it is an optimism that could trigger deals. The price of gold has risen more than 18% since the turn of the year, filling the coffers of producers whose balance sheets had already been strengthened by a focus on debt repayments and years of cost cutting following a downturn in prices in 2013.
“Gold has been one of the best performing commodities this year, as investors have sought safe havens amid equity market volatility and as expectations of a US rate hike have been pushed out,” Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a report that upgraded their gold price forecasts to $1,200 an ounce by the end of the year, up 4%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goldman Sachs Upgrades Commodities

Posted on 19 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs downgraded equities to “neutral” over a 12-month time-frame on growth and valuation concerns, but upgraded commodities to “neutral” on a three-month basis saying there was less downside potential to oil prices.
Goldman Sachs said commodities had rallied on the back of a dovish U.S Federal Reserve, Chinese economic data and supply disruptions. It upgraded commodities, saying that such supply disruptions should support oil prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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