Food costs a lot. In fact, after the pernicious drought in 2012 (the worst in 50 years), consumers around the world are faced with the very real possibility of rising food prices. I’ve seen some food industry observers speculate that higher food prices and food shortages could become the norm in 2013. At the same time, global populations continue to rise, as do the number of people in emerging market nations that are now finally able to afford better, more protein rich, diets.
This confluence of events could very well drive up feed stock prices, and that means a nice trading opportunity in a basket of commodities such as corn, soybeans and wheat………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Opec expects demand for its crude to be lower than expected in 2013 because of higher supply from rival producers, indicating inventories could build up substantially even after a cut in output by top exporter Saudi Arabia.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ monthly report indicated world supply will comfortably outstrip demand in the first half of 2013, even after Riyadh cut output in December by almost 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to fend off a supply overhang and defend prices well above $100 a barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Development aid campaigners have sharply criticized Germany’s Deutsche Bank for ending a moratorium on trading food commodity products. The lender has insisted its activities do not contribute to rising prices.
Anti-poverty campaigners on Monday criticized Deutsche Bank for abandoning a March 2012 moratorium on trading new food commodity products, saying that financial speculators helped artificially spike prices for vital for vital foods………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia exported 1.7 percent less crude in November than in the previous month, while Iraq and five other OPEC producers also curbed shipments, according to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative.
The kingdom, the largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, shipped 7.15 million barrels a day in November as it reduced monthly output by 2.4 percent to 9.49 million barrels a day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Whilst the outlook for the Chinese economy and domestic metals demand have dominated recent attention on the base metals complex, stronger supply expectations for 2013 are a critical component of projected softer metals market balances according to the latest Barclays Metals Magnifier.
Barclays forecasts point to an average 4.3% supply growth level in 2013, versus just 1.2% in 2012, supported by a combination of new projects, expansions and recoveries from disruption last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC expects demand for its crude to be lower than expected in 2013 because of higher supply from rival producers, indicating inventories could build up substantially even after a cut in output by top exporter Saudi Arabia.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ monthly report indicated world supply will comfortably outstrip demand in the first half of 2013, even after Riyadh cut output in December by almost 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to fend off a supply overhang and defend prices well above $100 (62.56 pounds) a barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has predicted a world oil demand growth in 2013 saying it will reach 800,000 barrels a day.
Crude will be mostly needed by transport and machine-making industries. In its monthly Oil Market Report released Wednesday, the OPEC said that this year economic turbulence will not affect the demand that much compared to last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A conflict over potentially valuable derivative trading data heated up on Wednesday, underlining how an overhaul of Wall Street after the financial crisis is sparking acerbic competition battles.
The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which performs back-office functions for investment banks, threatened to sue the top U.S. derivatives regulator over how rival CME Group Inc (CME.O) plans to handle the data………………………………………..Full Article: Source

As it seeks a new chief to lead it out of a negotiating death-spiral, the World Trade Organization looks doomed to be fatally undermined by new global carve-ups that will leave many of the world’s poorest sidelined.
At its creation 18 years ago, as the “third pillar” of the post-World War Two economic system alongside the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, tariffs fell by a third and world markets, from farm produce to finance, were opened up………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities rose to their highest in more than 11 weeks, led by energy and metals, amid optimism that an economic recovery in China will boost demand. Gold advanced to a one-week high.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials gained to the highest level since Oct. 22, as aluminum advanced as much as 2 percent and crude climbed to the highest level in more than three months. China’s exports jumped 14.1 percent last month, compared with a 5 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The nation is the world’s biggest user of industrial metals and energy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Some industry veterans believe it’s the biggest development in the energy game since 1859, when the first US oil well gushed from beneath the earth in Titusville, Pennsylvania.
In changes that would have been unthinkable just five years ago, the US is set to become a net energy exporter in the next few years, thanks to the controversial process of fracking that is re-wiring geopolitics and the world of energy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold traders expect prices to rebound from the longest weekly losing streak in eight years as mounting that concern that U.S. lawmakers are doing too little to control the budget deficit spurs demand for a protection of wealth.
Twenty analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, five were bearish and a further two were neutral. While hedge funds cut bullish bets to a four-month low last week as prices slid for a fifth week, investors are holding a near- record amount in gold-backed exchange-traded products that are now valued at $138.8 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Financial markets are flush with the vast sums of cash unleashed by the United States’ stimulus measures. Emerging economies have big appetites for infrastructure development such as roads, rail and ports. Put these two elements together and you have quite a bright outlook for commodity prices, analysts said.
Once the US negotiations over a budget deal are settled, and assuming a sensible deal is done to avoid the dreaded “fiscal cliff”, Credit Suisse said, the outlook for many industrial commodity prices is likely to be driven by the pace of global growth………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Coffee prices have fallen more than 50% since 2010 which can be seen through the coffee exchange traded fund symbol: JO. This investment seeks to replicate the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in coffee futures contracts as well as the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.
The top weekly chart shows my price targets for 2013 while the lower hourly chart shows strong on balance volume meaning big money is slowly building a long position in coffee………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Hedge funds owned by commodity giants including Cargill and Louis Dreyfus have outwitted their standalone rivals in a year of market volatility that has disrupted traditional models for oil and metals trading.
They have used their knowledge of agricultural markets to trade products that have been less affected by central bank liquidity injections or heightened tensions in the Middle East as many other funds have had their worst year in a decade………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Resources managers George Cheveley and Bradley George have been increasing their net market exposure to commodities as they see positive macro signs for equities in gold, iron ore and the energy majors over the next few months.
Cheveley told Citywire Global that he expected an upturn in meaningful Chinese growth in the first two quarters of next year, which would benefit iron ore companies in particular, and said the large diversified miners such as core holdings BHP and Rio Tinto would also be able to surprise the market with better than expected cost savings………………………………………..Full Article: Source

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 coal will rival oil as the world’s top energy source by 2017.
Although the growth rate of coal usage will slow from the “breakneck” pace of the last decade, the IEA forecasts global consumption in 2017 at 4.32 billion metric tons of oil equivalent (BTOE). The projection for oil is 4.40 BTOE………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The government will drop a controversial clause from a banking bill pending in parliament that would have allowed banks to trade in commodity futures, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kamal Nath said on Tuesday.
Opposition to the clause threatened to stall the passing of the bill, which is aimed at drawing foreign investment into the banking sector and increasing the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) regulatory oversight in local banks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Those who follow the day to day developments in the gold and silver markets have typically seen rampant market manipulation by large traders and bullion banks.
Although supposedly against the rules — and even being subjected to an ongoing investigation by the CFTC that now reaches into its fifth year — this market bullying is nevertheless allowed to happen over and over again without effective regulatory intervention…………………………………….Full Article: Source

If anybody is worried by the seeming weakness of China’s November trade data, then the commodity numbers should help reinforce the view that the recovery in the world’s number two economy is on track. Exports rose a disappointing 2.9% in November, well down on October’s 11.6% gain, while imports were flat versus October’s 2.4% rise.
For exports, there was probably a tailing off because Christmas orders were likely shipped in the prior two months, and the ongoing drag from recession in Europe and sluggish recovery in the US also would have been a factor………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global growth should pick up slightly in 2013 on improvements in both the advanced and developing economies, says State Street Global Advisors’ global CIO Rick Lacaille. However, risks remain skewed to the downside, he said, reflecting potential fallout from the Chinese slowdown, the European debt crisis and the US fiscal cliff.
He adds: “Investors have become all too familiar with the headwinds to economic growth and corporate profits and therefore remain concerned with the potential for losses on risky assets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investors cut bullish commodity bets for the first time in three weeks as U.S. lawmakers appeared no closer to an agreement to avert more than $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts and Europe cut its growth outlook.
Speculators and money managers decreased net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 3.4 percent to 898,380 contracts in the week ended Dec. 4, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Gold holdings fell 25 percent, the biggest drop since March, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the longest winning streak in at least nine decades will peak next year. Wheat bets fell for the second time in three weeks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Standard Chartered Plc (STAN), which gets most of its revenue in Asia, increased its global commodity headcount by 25 percent this year and is adding more as demand expands in China, the top user of energy and copper.
The bank added 20 front-office people on a net basis, taking the total to 100, said Arun Murthy, the global head of commodities based in Singapore. The increase includes traders and sales people in oil, coal, metals and agriculture, he said in an interview. The bank may add 10 to 20 in the next six months in places such as Dubai, Shanghai and Johannesburg………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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The Swiss cabinet on Monday rejected a motion that would force mining companies and private commodity trading houses to declare payments made to resource-rich countries.
The decision puts the traditionally neutral country at odds with the United States and the European Union, both of which are pursuing tough new rules for oil, gas and mining companies aimed at reducing corruption………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Standard Chartered aims to double revenue from its commodities business in the next four years, tapping its substantial emerging markets client base to strengthen its hand and opening a new trading office in China.
In a year that has seen European banks such as UBS and Natixis pull back from commodities, London-headquartered Standard Chartered has been taking advantage of its strong presence Asia and other fast-growing emerging markets to fill the gap……………………………………….Full Article: Source

An old joke in the commodities world was that futures traders never took holidays between the fifth and ninth business days of each month. Why? Because that is when money tracking commodity indices sell expiring futures contracts and replace them with new ones. Front-running the so-called “index roll” became a monthly meal ticket for active traders.
“I loved doing that,” a multibillion dollar commodity fund manager recently told me. “Those were the good old days.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Despite erosion of the cost competitiveness of China’s exports, expectations that China will sell less manufactured goods to Africa have proven misplaced as China’s exports to Africa are likely to have increased to over USD80bn while Sino-African trade is forecast to surpass USD200bn this year, up from USD166bn last year, according to a report co-authored by Standard Bank economists Jeremy Stevens and Simon Freemantle.
China continues to gain market share in Africa. Standard Bank estimates that 18% of Africa’s imports were sourced from China this year so far, up from 16.8% in 2011, 10% in 2008 and as low as 4.5% a decade ago, while Africa’s share of China’s exports is steadily gaining relevance, increasing from 3.3% last year to 5% this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold demand in China may sparkle as an initial batch of 20 banks participated in trading bullion via the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s newly-launched interbank platform. The banks were allowed by the Shanghai bourse, China’s biggest spot gold market, to trade bullion among themselves from Monday.
The transactions involving bilateral price inquiry are performed on the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, and cleared and settled through the gold exchange. The gold bourse charges both parties 0.04 percent of the traded amount, said a statement on its website………………………………………..Full Article: Source

“The fundamental demand story for mining and metals remains strong and we are already seeing an increase in growth in the Chinese economy, with expectations that this will be maintained in 2012,” says Ernest & Young’s Global Mining & Metals Leader, Mike Elliott.
“While we remain confident in the outlook for demand, we are more concerned about how the current hiatus in new capital approvals will impact future supply,” he added. “Supply constraints remain the key driver for many commodities in the medium to longer term, particularly iron ore, copper and lead.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

‘Hedging’ is a scientific tool for price risk management and helps in reassuring both sellers and buyers of the profit margins but not the speculative profits, said G. Chandrashekhar of The Hindu Business Line.
Chandrashekhar portrayed the fast-changing economic scenario, explicitly indicating a bright future for food market and how national economies were gradually integrating with global market, necessitating the stakeholders to develop a global perspective about the dynamics of international market……………………………………….Full Article: Source

UN conference on trade and development (UNCTAD) says trade in futures contracts causes the most damage. The United Nations has laid the finger of blame for food price rises on trading in agricultural commodities, but says it is the trade in futures contracts – an agreement to buy at a set price sometime in the future – rather than the actual food stocks that causes the most damage.
David Bicchetti, associate economic officer at UN conference on trade and development (UNCTAD), said “enormous, humongous” amounts of money are traded on commodities that don’t actually exist. “Over $400bn [of paper money] is traded – that’s 20-30 times the physical production of the commodity.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Barclays Plc. is contemplating a retreat from trading in agriculture commodities, according to a Reuters report. The move comes as the company gears up for a strategic revamp of its overall business as well as to avoid any threat to its reputation.
Notably, trading in agricultural commodities has received much criticism in the recent years as the speculation activity has been blamed for a shoot up of prices. This has had severe consequences in the undeveloped countries, leading politicians as well as common people to raise their voices in protest………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday sued the owner of the prediction market and betting website Intrade, alleging that the company allowed unauthorized trading by U.S. customers.
The civil suit, filed in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., said Intrade offered trading to U.S. customers on the future prices of commodities such as gold and crude oil despite a 2005 agreement not to offer trades on those and other items………………………………………..Full Article: Source

While Intrade is best known for offering a prediction market for gamblers to bet on the outcome of elections — and, as a byproduct, an ever-changing set of odds for who will win those elections — you don’t see that side of the business mentioned anywhere in the complaint. Instead, again and again, you find reference to Intrade letting U.S. residents gamble on things already under the coverage of financial markets and their regulators: commodity prices, market movements, economic data and so on.
That reflects the CFTC’s original 2005 complaint against Intrade, which focused on its offering of “commodity option contracts” and made specific mention of Intrade bets on gold and oil prices, currency exchange rates and interest rates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India’s net gold import for domestic consumption is likely to be about 800 tonnes this year following a pick-up in demand during the festive season, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Last year, the net import for domestic consumption was 969 tonnes.
“The first two quarters the demand was not that great following economic downturn, monsoon deficit, duty issues and jewellers strike, high prices. However, it picked up last month in the festival season and this year we expect the gold demand to be around 800 tonne,” WGC Director (Investment) Amresh Acharya told PTI………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What are the benefits of using a CTA (managed futures) fund in a portfolio? What is a reasonable allocation, and where should that allocation come from? Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) are an important strategy that should be considered as part of a diversified portfolio.
CTAs can be characterised into three groups based on the length of trends and holding times. Trends and holding times of less than eight to nine days are considered short term, three months to six months as medium term and beyond six months as long-term. Each group has a different response to market volatility, and sometimes market volatility will not work for CTAs – in particular, when market volatility is high but a trend is not identifiable. ………………………………………Full Article: Source

Chinese refiners have finalised annual crude oil supply deals for next year with OPEC producer Kuwait at volumes steady with this year, around 250,000 barrels per day, two trading executives told Reuters on Thursday.
The figure is equivalent to around 5 percent of crude oil imports by China, the world’s largest buyer of the fuel after the United States………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Venezuela was the first state to request back the physical gold it has stored outside of its borders, followed by Germany and Romania last month. Now, Ecuador is also requesting back its physical gold. What are all these states afraid of?
Officially, the two largest bodies in the world that hold the largest gold quantities are the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of England, that store approximately 6,000 tons of gold. Most of the gold does not belong to these banks but to other external entities which are using the banks for storage services………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Citigroup Inc is increasing its commodities and energy team with a new head of corporate sales and other key executives joining from rivals BNP Paribas and Barclays. The move comes at a time when many other banks have been pulling out of commodities after a period of losses and narrowing margins.
Dozens of traders have quit banks such as Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch to firms such as Glencore, Vitol, Gunvor and Mercuria………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Hong Kong, sitting China’s on flank and on the route to India, appears to be the nexus for a huge amount of gold moving around the planet, with as much as 60 metric tons of the precious metal crossing through in some months, worth US$3.32 billion at the current price per ounce.
There is so much gold passing through the territory from as far away as Switzerland that, as Asia Sentinel reported on Nov. 12, in July the Israel-based Malca-Amit Global Ltd announced that it had opened a bullion storage facility at Hong Kong International Airport that is capable of holding 1,000 tonnes at any given time – 22 percent of the gold in the fabled US storage facility at Fort Knox, Kentucky……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Financial authorities in China are considering measures which would make it easier for foreign investors to participate in the country’s largely isolated gold derivatives market, a move which would hasten the integration of the local precious metal market with the global market, Xie Duo, general director of the financial market department at the People’s Bank of China, said Monday at the annual London Bullion Market Association conference. Xie did not offer a timeline or further details.
Such a plan, if brought to fruition, could also eventually give the country more control over international gold prices, according to experts contacted by the Global Times………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold traders are the most bullish in 11 weeks and investors accumulated record bullion holdings on speculation US policy makers will add to stimulus following President Barack Obama’s re-election.
Twenty-five of 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and three were bearish. A further five were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since August 24. Investors boosted assets in gold-backed exchange-traded products to an all-time high of 2,596.1 tonne on Saturday, valued at $144.7 billion……………………………………….Full Article: Source

The Agricultural Bank of China plans to launch trading of precious metals overseas in the next year or two, even though Chinese investors’ enthusiasm for the metals has cooled this year, a senior executive said.
The AgBank is one of the nine Chinese banks that have been granted a licence to import gold. “We will start trading globally in the next year or two, most likely in London and New York,” Wang Xinyou, head of the precious metals business at the bank, said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold traders are the most bullish in 11 weeks and investors accumulated record bullion holdings on speculation U.S. policy makers will add to stimulus following President Barack Obama’s re-election.
Twenty-five of 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and three were bearish. A further five were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since Aug. 24. Investors boosted assets in gold-backed exchange-traded products to an all-time high of 2,592 metric tons on Nov. 7, valued at $143.1 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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America’s oil boom is pumping up exports and driving down the trade deficit. The U.S. trade gap narrowed by $2.3 billion in September, to $41.5 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Oil accounted for more than three quarters of the change, with a $2.2 billion surge in oil exports easily offsetting a small increase in imports.
The one-month change doesn’t mean much — the deficit could widen again when October figures are released next month. But the longer-run trend is unmistakable: The U.S. is importing less oil and exporting more………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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A commodities trader was accused in a lawsuit by U.S. regulators of concealing the size of his positions in violation of anti-fraud laws and causing losses of $118 million.
The trader, Matthew Marshall Taylor, in 2007 fabricated trades in a New York-based futures commission merchant’s internal system and obstructed his employer’s discovery of his position, risk and profits and losses, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in a complaint today in federal court in New York………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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It is not just Indian bullion retailers who are gearing up for the festival of lights in India next week. The World Gold Council too has noted a significant jump in sales from end-October and early November, in a run-up to the festival.
India’s import of the precious metal could be appreciably higher than was earlier envisaged, according to the Council. At a press conference, the global organisation said that India could import around 800 tonnes this year, way more than the 640 odd tonnes that was spoken about earlier this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India’s gold imports may fall to 550 tonnes next year from a peak of 967 tonnes in 2011, the head of a leading trade body said, after a drop that could be as steep as 45 percent this year as high inflation and prices bite into disposable incomes.
India’s 2011 imports put it ahead of China as the world’s largest gold buyer, but they slid over 56 percent in the second quarter of this year after New Delhi hiked import duties. Overall first-half imports fell 20 percent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Stick, twist or fold? Like card players, the top five banks in global commodities trade have reached the point where they must decide to hold strategy, adapt, or give up and get out.
The boom in resource markets that started 10 years ago attracted many big banks to trade oil, metals and agriculture, but the 2008 financial crisis forced a painful retreat and tighter regulation now means some banks may throw in the towel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity traders think about the United States for natural gas, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern nations for oil, Africa for gold, and Asia for foods such as rice. In doing so, they sometimes ignore commodity-rich Canada.
Canada has the seventh-largest economy in the world and is the second-largest country by land mass. It has a wealth of natural resources, making it a large energy and minerals exporter. For commodity traders looking to invest primarily in North America, Canada presents a compelling opportunity………………………………………..Full Article: Source