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Commodities Briefing - Category | Trading more

World economy still sputtering, trade figures show

Posted on 25 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The amount of goods traded globally fell sharply in the second quarter after a flat performance in the first few months of 2016, highlighting a major challenge for leaders around the world grappling with soft growth.
The volume of merchandise traded globally dropped by 0.8% from April to June following no change in the first quarter, according to the CPB World Trade Monitor produced by the Netherlands. Weaker trade patterns reflect fresh economic struggles in various countries and less demand among consumers, the main drivers of growth………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Rout Is Far From Finished As Glencore’s Profits Sink 66%

Posted on 25 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities colossus Glencore dipped to one-month lows in Wednesday business after latest half-year numbers highlighted the ongoing malaise whacking raw materials markets. Glencore was last dealing 5% lower after announcing that net income slumped by two-thirds between January and June, to $300m, a result that narrowly missed broker estimates.
The business saw revenues at its Metals and Minerals division dip 4% in the first six months, to $30.9bn, as much of the base metals complex continued to struggle. Bellwether metal copper saw its value sink 21% in the period, for example, to $4,707 per tonne, Glencore noted………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices: Crude will be stuck in a back-and-forth market, analyst says

Posted on 23 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Traders have bid up oil futures on speculation that producers will take measures to prop up crude prices, but any such deal might do little to quickly bring supply and demand into balance, ClearView Energy Partners Managing Director Jacques Rousseau said. As a result, crude prices could continue swinging back and forth, he said.
A rally that lifted benchmarks about 16 percent and pushed Brent above $50 a barrel during the last seven sessions lost steam on Monday as market watchers including Morgan Stanley said the gains were overdone. The bank said it was “highly unlikely” OPEC members and Russia would be able to overcome the many headwinds to striking a deal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities’ rebound is accelerating in China

Posted on 22 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China may be slowing, but a commodities rebound is under way and the world’s biggest miner knows where the next growth story is building – emerging economies in Southeast Asia.
Combined gross domestic product in the Asean-5 nations – Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam – will rise about a third to $3tn in the five years to 2020, fuelling commodities-intensive infrastructure projects. Momentum like this across Asia will help maintain and increase commodity demand, BHP Billiton’s Chief Executive Officer Andrew Mackenzie said last week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Conditions right for commodities to rally

Posted on 19 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The outlook for commodities is favourable, despite the fact most of them are trading below their 15-year median level, says Columbia Threadneedle. Commenting on the state of global equities, Columbia Threadneedle chief investment officer Mark Burgess noted that while commodities were trading at a lower level than in previous years, recent market signs indicated improvement may be just around the corner.
“Commodities stand out as one asset class that has yet to see an uplift. We see commodities as a useful portfolio diversifier and are mindful of its ‘catch-up’ potential, so we have lifted our allocation to the asset class,” Mr Burgess said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rally in gold may continue

Posted on 19 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

There may be further upside, as negative real interest rates in developed world unlikely to end soon. Gold has risen about 26.1 per cent year-to-date in 2016. The strong rally in yellow metal has raised three questions for investors: Will the rally continue? Will it be prudent to make fresh investments at current levels? And, should existing investors stay put or book profits?
Recent data from the World Gold Council for the first half of 2016 show the upsurge in demand for gold was driven primarily by investment demand from investors in the developed world — US, Europe and Japan. The investment demand of 1,063.9 tonnes during the first half of 2016 was 16 per cent more than the previous high in the first half of 2009 (after the financial crisis)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia has oil traders hanging on every word

Posted on 18 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Kingdom offers a reminder that well-chosen words can move the oil market. Central bankers have long understood that a few well-placed words can wield nearly as much power as pulling the actual levers of monetary policy. It is a lesson that Opec and Saudi Arabia has started to heed.
Just a few short sentences from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid al-Falih last week sent hedge funds scrambling to cover large bets against the oil price, subsequently propelling Brent crude 10 per cent higher and largely silencing fears the market was on the cusp of another rout………………………………………..Full Article: Source

End of the Affair as Chinese Commodity Traders Exit Market

Posted on 17 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Chinese traders are falling out of love with commodities. Aggregate volumes across the nation’s three biggest exchanges have shrunk to the lowest level in six months, a shadow of the fevered trading in March and April when retail investors charged into markets for everything from iron ore to cotton, driving up prices and stoking fears of a bubble.
Chinese authorities brought an end to the frenzy by introducing curbs on excessive speculation and trading has failed to recover since. Flush with record credit and hunting for returns, investors piled into commodities in the first half of the year, spurred by bets that China’s economic stimulus and industrial reforms would lead to shortages of raw materials………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goldman Sachs: Look at exports and commodities

Posted on 17 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Those looking for proof of China’s economic rebalancing act should stay clear of macro data and focus instead on micro evidence, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank released a research note Tuesday, detailing how changes in the composition of exports and commodity consumption are the most useful metrics to evaluate how Beijing is moving toward a consumption-led model, the so-called new economy.
“While the exports share of gross domestic product (GDP) in China today is similar to the level seen in the mid-1990s, the types of goods exported by China have changed significantly” Goldman explained………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Bulls Take Heart as OPEC Rekindles Hopes of Output Freeze

Posted on 15 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

All it took was a few words from OPEC to encourage oil bulls. Money managers increased wagers on rising crude prices by the most since January as futures rebounded from a three-month low.
Prices jumped after OPEC’s president said Aug. 8 the group will hold informal talks in Algiers next month and Saudi Arabia signaled Aug. 11 it’s prepared to discuss taking action to stabilize markets. “The statement certainly achieved its purpose,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “The Saudis saw bearish bets had really driven down the prices.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities trader Noble swings to second quarter loss

Posted on 12 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Embattled commodities trader Noble swung to a loss in the second quarter, as it continued with a turnaround plan to regain investor confidence. The Hong-Kong based group said today that it had initiated the sale of its power marketing business Noble Americas Energy Solutions, with the proceeds due to be ploughed into its turnaround plan.
“Interest in the sale has been strong and we are now entering the latter stages of the process, with completion expected in a couple or so months’ time,” Noble’s British born founder and executive chairman, Richard Elman, said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bitcoin pioneer Jered Kenna and TradeZero offer digital currency dark pool trading

Posted on 12 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bitcoin pioneer Jered Kenna has teamed up with online broker dealer TradeZero to create the world’s first dark pool exchange for Bitcoin and eventually other digital currencies. Dark pools are the name given to private exchanges or forums for trading securities, which facilitate very large orders without impacting the market and creating adverse price movements.
The Bitcoin market is less liquid than traditional FX and hence more volatile.Dark pool trading in Bitcoin would be useful to mainstream investors who may want to make large trades in Bitcoin, or use it as a currency hedge without alerting the market to their positions………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities experience broad-based recovery

Posted on 11 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Base and precious markets saw a substantial uptick in pricing and trading action amid a softening dollar, which provided an optimistic backdrop before a slew of Chinese data is released.
Copper for September delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gained 2.40 cents or one percent to $2.1740 per pound. Trade has ranged from $2.1450 to $2.2050. Comex gold for December settlement edged up $6.70 or 0.5 percent to $1,353.40 – around a one-week high. Trade has ranged from $1,345.70 to $1,363.60………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC upbeat on demand as oil basket posts first fall in five months

Posted on 11 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC upgraded its forecast for 2016 oil demand growth on Wednesday, in a report that may dampen hopes for a deal on a production freeze at its meeting next month. In its August report, OPEC forecast demand growth of 1.22 million barrels a day (mb/d) year on year, which was 30,000 barrels higher than forecast in July.
The new forecast would put global oil demand across 2016 at 94.26 mb/d. OPEC, which represents 14 major oil-producing countries, attributed the upgrade to better-than-expected economic performance in advanced European economies and some Asian ones, including India, in the first half of the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

HKEx Profit on London Metal Exchange Drops as Trading Falls

Posted on 11 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. said earnings from its commodities business — primarily the London Metal Exchange — extended their slump in the first half as the world’s biggest metals bourse battles lower trading volumes.
The unit’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization fell 19 percent to HK$513 million ($66 million) in the six months to June, from HK$632 million a year earlier, for their second consecutive decline over the half-year period. The HKEx’s first-half Ebitda across all its businesses, including equities and derivatives trading, fell 25 percent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Chinese Traders Roil Commodity Markets

Posted on 09 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China has become a mover of global prices; trading volume on the Shanghai and Dalian exchanges has exploded. Chinese markets remain largely closed to foreign investors, and data on them are scarce. But traders say that for years, buying and selling was dominated by state-owned conglomerates, and a handful of funds trading commodities.
Until roughly the last year, metal prices were essentially set in London. Now, China, the world’s top consumer and producer of metals, has become a mover of global prices. Chinese exchanges are staying open until late afternoon in London and midday in New York………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China-driven commodities resurgence continues

Posted on 09 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

US healthcare stocks had the biggest fall with the sector losing 1.1% overnight. But the main global macro story at the moment is the ongoing resurgence in the commodity complex. Despite another 0.2% gain in the DXY US dollar index overnight, commodities as a whole continued to gain with the Bloomberg commodity index closing up 0.6%.
News that OPEC would be having a September meeting with certain members keen to push for supply cuts again served as the impetus for oil prices to rally. While a deal is highly unlikely to eventuate, the fact that it is even being mentioned shows how much difficulty the past month’s renewed selloff was causing many struggling OPEC members………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global Commodities Trade: State of Play in H1 2016

Posted on 09 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The global commodities market saw tough conditions towards the end of 2014 and throughout 2015. As January 2016 unfolded, prices for crude oil, iron ore, copper and aluminium averaged between 21-69% of their levels when indexed against the same month of 2012. Roskill examines trade trends in the first six months of the year for key commodities, including lithium, tungsten, rare earths, tantalum, salt, vanadium and molybdenum.
However, markets as of mid-2016 appear to be picking up; this was echoed by the World Bank in its quarterly Commodity Markets Outlook published last week, which revealed that most commodity price indices rebounded in Q2 2016. The organisation now expects a modest recovery in the majority of commodity prices in 2017, on the back of increasing demand and tighter supply. (Press Release)

Oil market déjà vu sets in as OPEC plans ‘informal’ meeting

Posted on 09 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Traders can’t shake off a sense of déjà vu following an oil futures rally Monday that appeared to be inspired by major producing countries’ plans to discuss ways to stabilize the market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Monday said members will hold an “informal meeting” on the sidelines of the 15th International Energy Forum in Algeria on Sept. 26 to Sept. 28.
But this isn’t the first time OPEC has promised to talk about restoring stability and order to the oil market. After all, major oil producers failed to reach a pact to freeze production levels at a meeting in Doha, Qatar earlier this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Tanzania gears up to become regional commodity trading hub

Posted on 08 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Tanzania Commodity Exchange (TCX) is set to make Tanzania a hub for commodity trading in East African region that will involve setting up exchange associations and fostering relationships with International agencies. This is according to TCX Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, John Chaggama.
Commodity Exchanges integrates functioning of several key components of agriculture trade namely farmers, traders to services like Warehouse and Warehouse receipt system. It brings in standardization of quality and allows people to trade using efficient banking channels making transactions more transparent and fast for the participants………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Going for Gold: Price of Bullion Surges as China and Russia Amass Precious Metal

Posted on 05 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China and Russia are steadily accumulating gold as they seek to reduce dependence on the US dollar, financial information website Marketwatch reported. Russia and China’s policy of buying gold has helped the price of the precious metal to reach its highest level for more than two years, according to financial information website Marketwatch.
On August 2 the price of gold future contracts for December delivery closed at $1,372.6 per troy ounce, their highest level since March 2014. “China and Russia, the world’s No. 1 and No. 3 producers, are catching up to the big industrial countries in stocks of bullion in their official reserves,” remarked Marketwatch analyst David Marsh………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rio Tinto Cautions on Commodity Markets as Profit Sinks

Posted on 04 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Rio Tinto PLC’s new chief executive joined the ranks of mining companies quashing the idea that this year’s recovery in minerals prices will last, as the iron-ore giant reported its worst first-half underlying earnings in 12 years.
Jean-Sébastien Jacques said an about-turn in metals and bulk commodities prices has been rooted in a credit-fueled bounce in Chinese construction activity that might not be sustained, while a deepening iron-ore supply glut posed a challenge to the division that accounts for most of the company’s profits………………………………………..Full Article: Source

UNCTAD welcomes discussion, transparency on commodities and misinvoicing

Posted on 03 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) welcomes the comments on its commodities paper, which was published earlier this month. The paper used a standard methodology and publicly available (Comtrade) data to look at the mismatches between import and export figures on a range of commodities exported from five natural-resource-rich countries over periods of about 20 years.
In doing so, it identified clear and consistent patterns of misinvoicing, a term we use without attributing blame or making any specific accusations. Trade misinvoicing has been generating more and more attention in the research and policy communities, linked mainly to debates on illicit financial flows. Trade misinvoicing continues to be used as a key mechanism of capital flight and illicit financial flows (IFFs) from developing countries………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Currency Traders Ensnared by Volatility See 2016 Losses Deepen

Posted on 03 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Money managers trading in the $5.3-trillion-a-day currency market can’t catch a break. The investors have endured a five-month slump, their longest losing streak in foreign exchange since 2013. What was shaping up as the first monthly gain since February turned into yet another bust, after a rough stretch last week left the Citi Parker Global Currency Manager Index down 0.9 percent in July and on pace for a second straight annual drop.
Profits evaporated as a surprisingly weak U.S. economic growth report and smaller-than-expected stimulus from the Bank of Japan spurred a bout of volatility that the funds failed to capture. The pain shows no sign of subsiding………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Best Way to Trade Commodities Without Playing the Futures Market

Posted on 29 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors love having as many options as possible available to them to make a profit. Stock trading software and platforms are a dime a dozen, and option trading has become equally ubiquitous in the everyday investor’s world. However, commodities always seemed just out of reach for all but the wealthy or professional investor.
Futures exchanges carry commodities, which can be traded. Futures are typically used by companies to hedge their product against adverse price movements. For example, a gold mining company may use futures to lock in a specific price for the gold it mined………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Currency Trading’s ‘Last Look’ Rules Are Changing, BOE Says

Posted on 29 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A controversial practice in currency trading known as “last look” is beginning to change, according to the Bank of England, which is among the regulators to have scrutinized such market rules.
Some foreign-exchange platforms have changed their policies, giving priority to orders that are less susceptible to exploitation, the BOE said in a report on Thursday. It comes a year after Britain’s central bank said last look was vulnerable to abuse. London is the global center for currency trading, a $5.3 trillion market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities ‘At Bottom,’ Says World Bank as Rebound Seen

Posted on 28 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities will probably rebound next year as demand strengthens, according to the World Bank, adding its voice to those including Citigroup Inc. who’ve forecast that 2017 may be a better year for raw-material prices.
The Washington-based lender pared its forecast for declines in 2016 in its latest quarterly outlook, and forecast a modest rebound next year. “We are at the bottom of the cycle,” Senior Economist John Baffes, the report’s primary author, said in a phone interview………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Price Rally Is Over: Capital Drives the Oil Market to Low Prices

Posted on 28 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The current oil-price rally is over. U.S. rig counts have surged as oil prices sink. Capital is driving the oil markets and it enables bad behavior by producers. That is why oil prices will stay low.
The oil-price rally that began in February is over. Prices rose from $26 per barrel to $51 by early June and are now below $42. If they fall through $40, the next likely support level is at $36 per barrel. Most people think that fundamentals–supply and demand–drive the oil market but capital drives the market and oil prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Commodities Stay Low While Growth Continues

Posted on 27 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The commodity pits are aghast. The economy keeps growing while commodity prices remain depressed. Inconceivable does mean what they think it means. Efficiency is the decade’s watchword. Public good demand will come, from somewhere, next year.
The rise is all based on hope for commodities, especially for things like copper and gold. Copper is up over the last month, gold over the last three. This has spurred regular rallies in FCX stock, although when the hope turns out to be misplaced, the stock goes back down. It’s down again today, after losing another penny per share and disappointing on the revenue side………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Can commodities maintain their Midas touch?

Posted on 27 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities have been on a tear this year. Led by gold, the commodity complex emerged as the best performing asset class of the second quarter and first half of 2016, according to Citigroup. The Wall Street bank expects the strong performance of commodities to continue this quarter and through to the end of the year, as investors continue to show interest in commodity-based investment funds.
“This is in stark contrast to the last two years, during which time commodities sold off during the second half, leading the asset group to be the worst performing (asset class) compared with equities and debt securities,” the bank said in a recent report………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is The Commodity Rebound Over?

Posted on 27 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

One of these two camps of risk assets is sending the wrong signal: Emerging markets and junk bonds, or commodities – and more particularly, oil. While crude oil and commodities in general have weakened notably in July, both emerging markets and junk bonds finished on a high note last Friday.
Emerging markets can be replicated in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, while commodities can be measured by the CRB Commodity Index or by the price of crude oil as the most important commodity. In this chart, the Emerging Markets Index (in red) roughly replicates the oil price (black line) until the last month………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Oil Traders Are Writing Love Poems to Yahoo

Posted on 22 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Powerful forces have been roiling oil markets this year. There are the vagaries of Chinese demand, shifts in American production, the enigma of OPEC policy. And then, of course, there’s the imminent demise of Yahoo Messenger’s old software version.
“I’m very upset,” said Andy Lebow, an energy analyst and former oil broker who is lamenting the final days of the old version, which Yahoo plans to scrap Aug. 5 to steer customers to its new Messenger system. “My username is attached to all the people that I talk to. That’s important to me.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

JPMorgan oil trader takes over commodities

Posted on 21 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

JPMorgan has appointed its top oil trader as the new head of its commodities division, the latest move in a business that has reinvented itself since selling the bulk of its physical operations two years ago.
Jeff Katz, who previously oversaw oil trading at the Wall Street bank, is to replace Mike Camacho who is moving into the bank’s asset management division, according to an internal memo seen by the Financial Times………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China’s Steel and Commodities Problem

Posted on 20 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Deliberations this week at the European Commission will illustrate the way that the European Union is looking to engage with China on trade, while the United States prefers a more antagonistic approach.
The European Commission is due Wednesday to discuss the controversial issue of whether or not to grant China “market economy status.” But allegations that China is dumping goods — in particular steel — in Europe and other markets are likely to dominate the talks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC June output nears eight-year high

Posted on 19 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC crude output continued to grow in June, climbing close to an eight-year high. According to S&P Global Platts, OPEC’s crude oil output grew by 300,000 barrels per day to 32.73 million bpd.
The gains came despite disruptions in Nigeria, where militants have been attacking oil and gas infrastructure. Nigeria booked the largest output gain in June, with the country’s production rising by 150,000 bpd to 1.57 million bpd………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Some countries losing up to 67% of commodity exports to misinvoicing

Posted on 18 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Some commodity dependent developing countries are losing as much as 67% of their exports worth billions of dollars to trade misinvoicing, according to a fresh study by UNCTAD, which for the first time analyses this issue for specific commodities and countries.
Trade misinvoicing is thought to be one of the largest drivers of illicit financial flows from developing countries, so that the countries lose precious foreign exchange earnings, tax, and income that might otherwise be spent on development………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Most commodities up but oil plays yo-yo

Posted on 18 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks the performance of 20 major commodities split evenly between energy, metals and agriculture, continues to show a gain of more than 10% in the year to date. Some softness, however, has crept in during the past few weeks with some sectors, most notably energy, pausing after rallies in oil and natural gas ran out of steam.
Industrial metals found support from increased expectations that additional stimulus could be provided by central banks and from signs that China’s economy stabilized during the second quarter. Copper led the charge but data showed that the bulk of the rally was largely due to short-covering with traders hesitant about getting aggressively long………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why is the oil recovery taking so long?

Posted on 18 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Why aren’t oil prices rising faster? The recent recovery in oil prices has largely stalled out and investors looking at historical figures could be forgiven for not understanding why prices cannot move higher for now.
Oil is stuck in neutral despite the fact that even after prices started to crash, many investors once saw $60 as a remarkably cheap threshold. Today, prices remain firmly below that level, and investors will probably have to wait for more positive data before getting close to that level. The problem is not production or a glut of oil. U.S. oil output is falling slowly but steadily over time………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Lithium gets second wind

Posted on 18 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The lithium boom has been showing signs of maturing. In a winnowing process that all booms go through, there has been a natural floating to the top of those with the biggest and best lithium positions.
In the listed ASX space, the rise of Pilbara Mines (PLS) is a case in point. It is now a $700 million-plus company courtesy of the success it has had in outlining one of the world’s biggest hard-rock sources of lithium at its Pilgangoora ­deposit, 120km south of Port ­Hedland………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Anyone Can Trade Commodities on the Futures Market

Posted on 14 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Before money, people traded grain and precious metals directly with one another. Today, corn, wheat, gold and other commodities are traded through futures contracts that guarantee the purchase or sale of a given amount of the underlying commodity for a stated price on a set date.
The first futures contracts allowed farmers to lock in prices for their crops well before they were ready for market, taking the edge off the price plunge that could come with the harvest glut. These contracts could also assure that a user like a bread maker would have ready access to the commodity it would need in the off-season………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bare necessities no more

Posted on 14 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices have begun to rise since the turn of the year, but will they go higher? Commodity prices have lost some of their shine in recent years, with falling prices reflecting a broader economic malaise and a shaky outlook for Chinese growth and demand.
Since its peak in February 2008, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which measures a broad basket of commodities, has fallen 62 per cent. However, there are signs that this bear market is beginning to burn out, with prices rallying 14 per cent so far this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Uncertain Oil Traders Look to Clashing Stockpile Data for Signs

Posted on 14 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil traders don’t know who to follow these days. Weekly inventory reports that help set prices for crude futures come primarily from two sources: The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration.
In six of the past 10 weeks, however, the data reported by the two groups has differed by at least 2 million barrels, with the gap for the week ended May 6 at 6.9 million. That week, the API showed a stockpile gain while the EIA saw a decline, one of eight weeks this year with diametrically opposed results………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Watch gold prices to profit from silver

Posted on 13 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices are up 25 percent in 2016 while the surge in silver has seen prices rally 46 percent this year. Early in 2016, the silver price behavior stopped leading the gold price behavior. Silver reverted to its previous behavior of following the gold behavior but it has remained a very profitable trade.
Silver has an upside target of $26.00. That’s 30 percent higher from the current price near $20.00. Gold has an upside target near $1580, which gives a 16 percent gain from the current price near $1360………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Is Not ‘Crowded’ Yet; Here’s Why

Posted on 13 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Is gold a crowded trade yet? Bulls are growing more optimistic by the day. Gold futures have climbed 26% to $1,333 an ounce this year (despite a 1.7% drop on Tuesday as risky assets rallied).
Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at New York brokerage Convergex, notes that gold-tracking ETFs have pulled in $16.2 billion this year, reversing the $2.7 billion of outflows from the second half of 2015. Demand for gold ETFs is basically the same as demand for U.S. stock ETFs, which have pulled in $16.9 billion. Meanwhile, gold ETFs demand, at 364 tonnes in the first quarter of this year, the highest since the start of 2009………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran Plans to Double Crude Exports to Regain Market Share

Posted on 12 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iran plans to double crude exports so long as the increase in shipments is absorbed by global markets, which it sees as stable for the rest of the year, according to a senior official at state-run National Iranian Oil Co.
The country is exporting about 2 million barrels of its daily output of 3.8 million, said Mohsen Ghamsari, NIOC’s director of international affairs. It has regained about 80 percent of the market share it held before the U.S. and European Union tightened sanctions on its oil industry in 2012, he said. Iran plans to double crude exports………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity trade in UK may have some position limit leeway after Brexit

Posted on 06 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Britain-based commodity exchanges may have some leeway in the way they manage large positions after the UK exits the European Union, but they will still have to comply with EU rules from 2018, experts say.
Position limits, a way of controlling how much of an individual commodity trading firms can hold, are being introduced for the first time in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II) from January 2018. Britain voted to leave the EU last month, but its exit has to be negotiated with the remaining 27 members, a process that is meant to be completed within two years of triggering a formal legal process………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China commodities rally on hopes of stimulus to boost economy

Posted on 05 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Chinese commodities from nickel to cotton surged on Monday on hopes Beijing will unleash more stimulus to prop up a sluggish economy, brightening the outlook for raw material demand. An official survey on Friday pointed to China’s weak manufacturing sector in June with export orders and inventories falling and factories shedding more workers.
“There are headwinds in the domestic market and exports and for the government to achieve its macroeconomic targets they need to focus on more stimulus in the second half of the year,” said Helen Lau, an analyst at Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities soar. Silver’s up 50% this year!

Posted on 05 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold soared to levels over USD 1350 an ounce while Silver moved to over USD 21 an ounce. This is a sharp move for the year, given they had closed 2015 at USD 1060 an ounce and USD 13.83 an ounce. That’s a return of over 50% for Silver in the current year.
The trend is visible across the Commodity space. As per Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, ‘Apart from grains, all are back in demand following the Brexit vote on June 23. Record low bond yields on the back of raised speculation about renewed central bank action supported metals of all colors. Sugar and coffee found support in Brazil while oil settled down after the initial squeeze and natural gas surged on improved fundamentals.’……………………………………….Full Article: Source

A ’spluttering’ recovery for commodities in 2016-17

Posted on 01 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The 2016 financial year was a year of two halves, with a severe downward shift in prices followed by a period of relative stability, but experts are warning the path to recovery is unlikely to be smooth.
The collapse of iron ore and oil prices persisted in the first half of the financial year, with a raft of other commodities following suit in what some industry executives dubbed the worst industry downturn in many years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iraq’s oil exports set to decline in June for second month

Posted on 30 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iraq’s oil exports are set to decline in June for a second month, according to loading data and an industry source, adding to signs that supply growth from OPEC’s second-largest producer is slowing this year.
Iraq in 2015 provided the biggest rise in supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. But companies working in Iraq have warned the government that projects to boost output will be delayed if Baghdad cuts spending in response to low oil prices……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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