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Uranium bull market to gather steam over next 18 months - Scotiabank

Posted on 14 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Scotiabank analysts are bullish uranium. They have been for some time. As we noted in early 2013, Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank’s vice-president economics and commodity market specialist, made the case that uranium prices, decimated by the 2011 Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear disaster, would rebound mid-decade.
It’s not a position that has changed. In her latest commodities report on December 19, 2013 she labelled uranium a “turnaround story” for the mid-2010s. Her thesis - as outlined at the AME BC Roundup conference last year - is heavily contingent on three factors:……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Barclays raises 2014 zinc, copper price outlook on higher demand

Posted on 14 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Barclays on Monday raised its zinc and copper price forecasts for 2014 citing improved demand outlook for the industrial metals. The bank sees zinc at $2,138 per tonne in 2014 and forecasts copper at $7,125 per tonne this year, it said in a note.
“We expect the global refined zinc surplus to shrink markedly this year and for the market to move into its first deficit in almost a decade in 2015,” it said. Barclays said it expects copper to move into surplus in 2014, weighing on prices, though it said the surplus would likely be small and short-lived. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

New year may prove positive for commodities

Posted on 13 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For a major part, the year 2013 was characterised by several uncertainties covering global economic growth, geopolitics, monetary policy, currency dynamics and weather.
Mercifully, the current year has begun with a somewhat clearer picture. Although still not really back to trend, global economic growth has begun to gather momentum under the lead of the US. Geopolitical tensions stand substantially reduced although there is always an undercurrent of uncertainty………………………………….Full Article: Source

Hermes sees commodities returning most in four years on growth

Posted on 10 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities will gain the most since 2010 this year and climb at a faster pace next year as the global economy strengthens, Hermes Fund Managers Ltd. said.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities will rise 2.7 percent this year and 6.7 percent in 2015, Hermes said in a report today. While it expects gold to remain under pressure, platinum and palladium “look more attractive” and sugar should rebound later this year, it said……………………………..Full Article: Source

EIA: Global oil demand to rise 1.2 million b/d in 2014

Posted on 09 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global liquid fuels consumption is forecast to increase by 1.2 million b/d in 2014 and by another 1.4 million b/d in 2015, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released this month.
Countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, led by China, account for nearly all consumption growth over the forecast period, EIA said. OECD consumption is expected to decline by 0.1 million b/d in 2014 and remain flat in 2015………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Moody’s drops gold price assumption to $1,100 an ounce

Posted on 09 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A major ratings agency says the credit worthiness of several Canadian miners is under threat as it lowers its forecast of where it expects gold prices to be for the next several years to $1,110 US an ounce. Moody’s has reduced its assumption for the average price of gold and silver in 2014 and beyond to $1,100/oz and $18/oz, respectively. Both figures are about 10 per cent below previous expectations.
After peaking at over $1800 an ounce in 2012, gold prices have steadily declined, with the spot price dropping by 30 per cent last year alone. Gold miners spent heavily seeking out new production when prices were high, and are now saddled with high costs for those projects even as their revenue declines because of the lower price………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Miners’ credit ratings at risk as Moody’s cuts gold price forecast

Posted on 09 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Moody’s Investors Service will use a lower gold price on which to base its ratings of producers of the precious metal. Delivering another blow to the struggling gold industry, the credit rating agency said it will now use $1,100 (U.S.) an ounce instead of $1,200 to reflect the significant deterioration in gold prices.
Last year’s 30-per-cent drop in bullion to around $1,200 an ounce triggered gold producers to overhaul operations, write down assets, cut jobs, and suspend dividends and projects. The move puts the credit ratings of Canada’s largest gold producers in jeopardy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Citi not bullish on gold’s outlook

Posted on 09 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Citi is not bullish on gold at this stage. The early signs of growth in Europe, the pickup in growth in the U.S. and the improvement in global economy suggest that people are becoming more risk seeking. Hence in all probabilities, they may shed their gold holdings, which normally are considered as defensive bet.
According to Citi data, FII flows slowed across Emerging Markets. At this point, FIIs prefer Developed Markets over Emerging Markets. The global firm also believes that flows into India will be slow when compared to relative markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How Peru could survive the end of the commodities supercycle

Posted on 08 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With a mere 30 million people living within its borders, Peru is only slightly larger than the state of Texas. But as the world’s third-largest producer of both copper and zinc and its sixth-largest source of gold, the country enjoyed an outsized benefit from a cresting wave in global commodities markets over the last decade.
Between 2002 and 2012, as the price of most commodities soared, Peru’s average annual GDP growth rate was 6.4 percent. As recently as 2010, the Latin American country’s GDP expanded by 8.8 percent, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the world………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities futures: Use hedging tool to reduce your risk exposure

Posted on 07 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the current scenario, the growing economic uncertainty and developments call for a tool or mechanism that can be used by investors to reduce and minimise the risk exposure. Hedging is one such financial instrument that can help you do this. By taking a position in the futures market, which is equal and opposite to the one in the physical market, an investor can trade with the objective of reducing risks associated with changes in price levels.
If an investor has physical material or stock of a particular commodity, he can hedge his exposure to the physical market by taking a reverse and opposite position in the futures market. If a jeweller has an underlying stock, he can sell gold on the exchange platform to safeguard his position against a fall in prices. Hence, hedging can help protect businesses from the adverse effects of temporary price volatility in the commodity markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A better year for stainless steel, 2014

Posted on 07 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Prevailing sentiment throughout the stainless steel supply chain is one of “cautious optimism” that 2014 will be a little better than 2013, in terms of both business volumes and profitability. Market participants have been, for some time, expressing the view that activity and prices have been bumping along a prolonged bottom in the business cycle and that that situation is close to its end.
A number of major western industrial nations have begun to record encouraging economic indicators, such as positive GDP growth, increasing manufacturing output and falling unemployment. The Japanese government’s economic stimulus measures, or “Abenomics”, have, at least in the short term, boosted industrial activity in a market that has been in the doldrums for two decades………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Economic shift away from China to the West will dictate commodity prices in 2014

Posted on 06 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The global economic narrative is changing rapidly, with the emphasis moving from Asia and the fast-growing markets in the East, back to the developed West. Commodities investors are shifting their strategic focus away from China for 2014 as they search out clues as to the direction of prices.
The global economic narrative is changing rapidly, with the emphasis moving from Asia and the fast-growing markets in the East, which have driven the commodities “super-cycle” over the past decade, back to the developed West………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global carbon market contracts 38pct as prices and volumes drop

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global carbon markets traded a total €38.4 billion worth of allowances and credits during 2013, a 38% decrease from the €62bn the previous year, in a continuation of the decline that started after the market peaked at €96bn in 2011. Since then, the key European reference price of emissions has fallen from €18 to €5 per tonne of carbon dioxide.
Last year also saw a decrease in terms of volumes – from 10.7 billion to 9.2 billion emission units – the first drop in traded volumes since 2010, according to analysis published today by Thomson Reuters Point Carbon, the leading provider of market intelligence, news, analysis and forecasting for the energy and environmental markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold forecast for 2014

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is headed for its first annual loss since 2000 as an improving economy cut demand for wealth protection. Gold in international fell 28 percent this year to USD 1,201.10 an ounce. Investors lost faith in the precious metal as a store of value as equities rallied and an economic recovery prompted the Federal Reserve to pare its USD 85 billion in monthly bond purchases.
Analysts at J.P Morgan Cazenove lowered their forecasts on gold prices - by 10 percent to USD 1,263 an ounce for 2014 and by 12 percent to USD 1,275 for 2015, according to their research note………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices to find a floor in 2014 - Saxo Bank

Posted on 02 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices may start 2014 off on the defensive but losses could be limited as prices appear to be bottoming out, said one Danish bank commodity analyst.
Saxo Bank is currently working on its outlook for 2014 and is not expecting to release it until early January, but Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, spoke to Kitco News to offer some highlights and his expectations for the new year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity prices to remain soft in 2014

Posted on 30 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A year of multiple uncertainties that continually buffeted the global commodity markets is coming to an end. The last twelve months were dominated by concerns over world economic growth, geopolitical instabilities, divergent monetary policies by the developed and the developing nations as also currency fluctuations all of which combined to take a heavy toll in terms of demand slowdown, price volatility, subdued investor interest and project delays in some cases.
The effect of all these is seen in rice movement in the last 12 months. It has generally been not a good year for commodities, and metals prices in particular – precious, base and industrial. Punters’ eternal favourite gold ended the year at just about $1,200 an ounce, a 30 per cent fall from the levels ($1,667) seen this time last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities: A better looking 2014?

Posted on 30 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

ANZ expect most commodity markets to improve in 2014 after an average 8% decline in 2013. The performances will be skewed with improving global growth over the next 12 months offset by rising supply and high stockpile positions.
The important Chinese market will stabilise according to ANZ, which should reset an overly-cautious view on the key commodity consuming economy. Investment funds positions are also likely to be rebuilt, but rising US interest rates will prove to be a headwind and create volatile trading conditions in the first half of the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Demand for commodities expected to receive a boost in 2014

Posted on 30 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A resource analyst says he expects to see modest rises to commodity prices in 2014. David Lennox from the wealth management firm Fat Prophets says China’s economic growth should remain stable next year, providing a demand for Australian mining exports, and pushing up commodity prices.
He believes growth in the US economy will also create a positive trend in the market, but warns that could also push up the US dollar. “We do see perhaps some headwinds in terms of the US currency as the US economy does start to improve,” he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Scotiabank’s top commodity picks for 2014

Posted on 20 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index declined by a sharp -5.8 per cent month-over-month in November and is currently -10.4 per cent below a year earlier. While commodity prices lost ground in 2013 — partly due to disappointingly slow global growth (2.9 per cent in 2013, down from 3.2 per cent in 2012) — signs point to a bottoming in 2014 and a return of the ‘Bull-Run’ in the second half of the decade.
Zinc is a Top ‘Pick’ for early investors. Lumber should post another solid advance in 2014, with a 19 per cent year-over-year gain expected in Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Go short gold, long nickel - Barclays

Posted on 20 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

2014 is likely to be another difficult year for Commodities, writes Barclays, in a note out earlier this week. But, it expects base metals to out perform both oil and precious metals in the early parts of the year.
The main reasons for this are twofold. Firstly, on the base metals side, Barclays expects 2014 to mark the end of a period of structural surplus that has afflicted base metal markets to a greater or lesser degree since 2007/2008………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rabobank expects stable commodity markets in 2014

Posted on 19 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In its Annual Agri Commodity Outlook report, Rabobank on Tuesday indicated that commodity markets are expected to be stable into 2014, a change of pace from the past decade. Record prices and extreme volatility, which have been staples of the ag markets since the early 2000s, Rabobank says, will likely be replaced by more balanced fundamentals and narrower trading ranges in 2014.
Overall, recent high prices have made it beneficial for farmers to increase planted acreage for grains and oilseeds, and with few production setbacks in 2013, production has outpaced consumption. Rabobank says while most of the price easing has already taken place, grains and oilseeds prices will continue some easing into 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity funds head for record outflow

Posted on 18 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity-linked investment funds are headed for record outflows in 2013, with an $88bn decline in assets under management in the year to November, according to a Barclays report.
Investors have withdrawn a net $36.3bn from commodity funds this year – also a record – as prices fell across the market, from coffee to nickel. The bulk of the sell-off came through gold exchange traded funds (ETFs), as the decade-long bull run for the yellow metal ended, with prices falling 26 per cent this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity assets lost record $88-bln in value this year add to …

Posted on 18 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity assets lost $88-billion (U.S.) in value through November, the largest decline for the first 11 months of the year on record, from a combination of investor exits and from price drops that took place mostly in gold, Barclays said on Tuesday.
In terms of withdrawals alone, investors took out a net $36.3-billion in the 11 months of the year so far, setting another record over that time period, the London-based investment bank said in a research note………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity investments seen by Barclays set for record outflow

Posted on 18 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity investments are heading for record outflows driven by withdrawals from gold exchange-traded funds as some investors lost faith in the traditional store of value, according to Barclays Plc.
Assets under management declined $88 billion since the start of the year through last month, Barclays said in a report e-mailed today. Net outflows reached $36.3 billion, also set for a record decline, it said. Investments in precious metals slid 40 percent since 2012 to $119 billion………………………………………..Full Article: Source

$78bln fall in gold assets leads record investor exit from commodities

Posted on 18 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Data released by Barclays Capital showed that total global commodity asset values fell by a record $88 billion to $332 billion in the first 11 months of the year. The UK investment bank said $88 billion headline decline in commodity assets under management is the largest on record as is the net $36.3 billion withdrawal of funds from the sector by investors.
Barclays said the overall decline was mainly as a result of price falls and investors abandoning the precious metals sector, particularly gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why 2014 could be a win for some metals and mining leader

Posted on 18 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices took a sharp downward turn in 2013, but the good news appears to be that it will not get any worse in 2014. According a recent report, analysts at Moody’s Investors Service say that average prices for aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc have bottomed, but that “prices in 2014 will on average be lower than 2013 levels.” That is due to the relatively high prices in force at the end of 2012.
Producers of these base metals will do what all miners are doing: focus on lowering costs and reducing capital spending. Increases to operating costs are expected to moderate, and the focus on cost savings will help offset the lower expected prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity demand seen positive on strong manufacturing numbers

Posted on 16 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The latest OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) released last week point to an improving economic outlook in most major economies. The CLIs are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend and currently they show signs of an improvement.
While the lead indicators for the US point to growth around trend, in the Euro area a positive change in momentum is seen. However, in the emerging economies while it shows growth around trend, a tentative positive change in momentum is seen for China, Russia and India………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities outlook for 2014

Posted on 13 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Following another difficult year of sizeable losses, the commodity sector remains virtually friendless going into 2014. Oversupply has become an increasingly serious issue for a number of commodities, especially industrial metals and, for the two main metals, aluminium and copper, this is expected to undermine pricing through 2014.
The average year-end copper price forecast from the main investment houses we monitor is $6,750/tonne, some 5% below current spot price………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity market decreased slightly in November due to macroeconomic uncertainty

Posted on 12 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities were lower in November due to uncertainty regarding the future of US stimulus measures. Nelson Louie , Global Head of Commodities in Credit Suisse’s Asset Management business, said, ‘There is increasing optimism among some economists that global GDP will accelerate from a trough of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2013 to higher levels in 2014, driven by stronger than expected growth in the US and a continuing recovery in Europe .
This is potentially the first significant acceleration in global growth in three years and may be supportive of global commodity demand. While key macroeconomic risks have recently diminished and the economic tide appears to have shifted, significant changes to expectations may negatively impact markets, including commodities.’ (Press Release)

Commodity price boom may impact on rates

Posted on 12 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Strong commodity prices, particularly for dairy products, could drive up interest rates more than currently expected if they continue to keep the terms of trade at elevated levels, the Reserve Bank says.
In an alternative scenario in Thursday’s monetary policy statement, the bank projected a more aggressive tightening cycle if global demand for New Zealand exports keeps commodity prices high and maintains an elevated terms of trade………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA sees non-OPEC oil supply growing

Posted on 12 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency said Wednesday from Paris it expected crude oil demand to increase at the same time production from non-OPEC members rises.
The IEA published its oil market report for December. It raised its estimate of global crude oil demand for 2013 because economies in the 34-member Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development performed well during the third quarter of the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Barclays favours nickel in 2014, bearish on gold and oil

Posted on 11 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Base metals, led by nickel, appear set to trend higher in 2014 due to tighter supplies, while unfavorable economics should keep pressure on gold and oil and prompt investors to avoid much of the commodity complex, Barclays said on Monday.
In another negative outlook on commodities from a major investment bank, London-based Barclays PLC said that outflow of money from the sector will not end soon, at least not in the first quarter………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The 2014 metals outlook: Iron ore

Posted on 10 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Australian Mining has investigated the current state of Australian metals and looks into how they will perform in the coming year. In the fourth part of this five part series we look at iron ore. Iron ore spent the last few years as the darling of the mining boom.
It was also the main factor in the rapid decline of the boom as prices spiralled quickly, taking much of the investor confidence with it. This in turn dragged the rest of the industry down as investors rapidly departed………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Demand growth in commodity markets seen modest

Posted on 09 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Despite signs of recovery in demand and supply, global commodity markets covering energy products, metals (base, precious and industrial) and agriculture continued to remain vulnerable to a clutch of uncertainties including sustained global economic growth, monetary policy, exchange rate, geopolitics and not the least, weather.
Many of these factors played out in their own way the whole of 2013 – some favourably like the weather, and some otherwise, like geopolitics and monetary policy – but they all have refused to go away. Most of the driving forces will be around in 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities “supercycle” not over – but mining firms must adapt says new report

Posted on 06 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A new report from the Economist Intelligence Unit argues that the industrial commodities supercycle isn’t over: continued demand from China (slower, but from a larger base), ongoing global urbanisation, and structural factors such as higher energy and extraction costs will continue to support prices in the medium term.
In the pits? Mining and metals firms and the slowing of the supercycle by the Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by National Australia Bank, focuses primarily on iron ore, base metals and coal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity prices to fall in 2014, but will rebound in 2015-16 - Goldman Sachs

Posted on 06 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the face of falling commodity prices, many mining projects are being scaled down or canceled which will result in lower supply and higher prices as soon as 2015-16, managing director and head of Latin American economics at Goldman Sachs, Alfredo Ramos, told BNamericas.
“Investment in mining and other commodity sectors is being canceled or scaled down in anticipation of potentially soft/lower commodity prices in the near future,” Ramos said. In Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, nine mining projects had been suspended from the portfolio as of end-June, involving US$27bn in investment, according to local industrial association Sofofa………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China and US demand to drive commodity prices higher in 2014

Posted on 05 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities look set to underperform developed market equities for the third consecutive year in 2013, following ten years of outperformance. Slowing China growth, US Fed tapering jitters and rising supply expectations have been the main factors weighing on prices.
However, ETF Securities, a leading provider of exchange-traded commodities (ETCs) with almost $19 billion in assets under management, argues that 2014 will be a turnaround year for this laggard asset class. Nicholas Brooks, Head of Research and Investment Strategy at ETF Securities, believes that China’s adjustment from 10%-12% GDP growth rates to more sustainable 7%-8% growth rates is now largely factored into market prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities: Demand outlook improves after data

Posted on 04 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil futures rallied on Monday as investors cheered better than expected manufacturing growth in China, the US and the Eurozone last month, boosting the outlook for energy demand. Crude oil for January delivery climbed $1.10 or 1.2% to settle at $93.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The recovery in the Eurozone manufacturing sector accelerated again in November, China’s purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 51.4, better than an expected reading of 51.1 and above the 50-point mark, which separates expansion from contraction. US manufacturing also accelerated in November, rising to 57.3%, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management………………………………………..Full Article: Source

CFTC data shows speculators cut back on bullish precious metals positions

Posted on 04 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Large speculators continued to shed bullish positions across the board in precious metals futures and options on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Nymex, now for the fourth straight week for gold and silver, according to U.S. government data.
For the week ended Nov. 26, large speculators in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly commitments of traders report saw their net-long positions fall in gold, silver and platinum group metals, with the gold net-long position in the disaggregated report hitting its lowest level since late June………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global aluminium market may witness 275Kt deficit in 2014

Posted on 04 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Aluminium market deficit excluding China is expected to go up further next year than in 2013, “provided producers go ahead with all the production cuts that have been announced, the global market balance will shift into a small 275Kt deficit next year-the first since 2006-07-substantially tighter than the 1.2Mt surplus we forecast back in mid-2013,” according to weekly report by London based Barclays.
In the context of 2014, “we forecast an average price of $1,838/t, which infers a very similar range-bound price dynamic to this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A commodities rally isn’t carved in stone

Posted on 03 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

If the market had its own Ten Commandments, near the top would be “thou shalt revert to the mean”—or, what goes up must come down and vice versa. Commodities bulls betting on this lifting their favorite investment out of its funk need to ask themselves where that mean is, though.
It looks like commodities in 2013 will rack up their second consecutive year as the worst-performing asset class in terms of risk-adjusted returns, according to Deutsche Bank. The Dow Jones- UBS Commodity index is down 10% so far this year……………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities: Worst performing asset class for second year in a row

Posted on 03 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities continue to be the worst performing asset class for second year in a row, but it could signal a recovery in returns heading into next year, according to Deutsche Bank.
The bank expects Crude oil to be sensitive to the possibility of Iranian sanctions easing while Natural Gas is bullish on weather-deficit is seen in storage and further upward price movements could mean its decreasing competitiveness with CAPP coal……………………………….Full Article: Source

OPEC ticks up 2013 oil demand forecast

Posted on 03 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The OPEC oil cartel on Tuesday increased its forecast for oil demand growth in 2013 on expectations of better-than-expected improvement in developed country economies.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its November monthly report that demand would average 89.78 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2013, a slight 0.04 mbpd increase from last month’s forecast. Most of the demand increase came from small adjustments in Europe and North America with non-OECD countries seeing demand forecasts in a slight decline. ………………………………Full Article: Source

What economists are forecasting for 2014

Posted on 25 November 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Economists are expecting a better 2014 for economic growth, saying with less drag from federal government policy, the economy is poised to continue adding more jobs, spurring higher consumer spending. The economy should also benefit from stronger export growth as demand improves in Europe and Asia , experts said.
The growth is not expected to be dramatic; The PNC Financial Services Group’s economists are projecting real Gross Domestic Product growth of 2.5 percent for the year ahead, up from growth estimates of 1.6 percent for full-year 2013. Real GDP estimates the value of goods and services produced in the U.S. adjusted for inflation………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Citi forecasts $1,255/oz gold in 2014, favors palladium

Posted on 20 November 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Citi Research looks for gold to average $1,255 an ounce in 2014, falling early in the year on expectations for tapering of Federal Reserve quantitative easing but drawing support from continued Chinese buying. The bank lists palladium as its favored metal for the precious complex.
Citi said investors collectively are focusing on a global economic recovery, with debate over the timing of tapering of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee considered a question of “when,” not “if.” The bank said it views March as the earliest possible date for a possible tapering announcement……………………………………Full Article: Source

Seasonal demand could push up oil prices: IEA

Posted on 15 November 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency warned Thursday that a seasonal upswing in demand could put upwards pressure on oil prices in the near-term. “If seasonal cycles in crude and product demand are any guide, the recent easing of prices may be relatively short‐lived,” the agency said in its monthly report on the oil market.
Since the beginning of the month, the price of December Brent crude futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange has fallen just over 1%. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery has fallen nearly 3%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bullion may see volatility on global economic data

Posted on 15 November 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Testimony from the US Fed chairman nominee Janet Yellen stated that, unless the US economy recovered, there would not be any tapering of its stimulus programme. This made US equities end on a positive note and so, we are seeing all the Asian markets trading in the green, barring China due its local influence. The emerging nation’s currencies are also appreciating against the US dollar. The comment by Janet Yellen has also impacted the bullion sector.
Gold bullion, which was trading below $1270 at the futures market, is now seen trading higher by $15 at $1285. Likewise, silver too has advanced by 1.65 percent and is hovering near $20.78. We believe that the market should continue to follow the expectations raised by the comment unless there any fresh trigger pops up………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC forecasts “growing” oil demand despite recent price dips

Posted on 14 November 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Agence France-Presse reported Tuesday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has increased its 2013 forecast for oil demand growth based on ” expectations of better-than-expected improvement” within developed country economies.
OPEC’s November monthly report projected that demand would increase slightly from October to 89.78 million barrels per day (mbpd). The slight 0.04 mbpd increase is allegedly a result of increase demand in Europe and North America, while non-OECD countries’ demand has slightly declined………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global temperatures to rise faster and higher than UN prediction: IEA

Posted on 14 November 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global warming as a result of greenhouse gas emissions will be almost twice as intense as the United Nations’ 2035 target, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the energy arm of the OECD.
The IEA predicts that greenhouse gas emissions will rise by 20% over the next 22 years, creating temperature increases of 3.6 degrees, well above the UN’s prediction of a 2.0 degree-increase. The estimates are part of the IEA’s 2013 World Energy Outlook, which calls for an expansion of “carefully designed” alternative energy subsidies to the tune of $220 billion annually by 2035………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities: Destination Africa

Posted on 11 November 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

At the food processing plant he runs in Lagos, Mukul Mathur describes the thousands of miles that his tomatoes travel. At first, their odyssey between Nigeria and California appears unremarkable in an age of globalisation.
Mr Mathur would seem to be just another trader buying raw materials in Africa and selling them to distant, wealthier markets. But he actually runs a supply chain at odds with old, colonial-era trade routes. “We farm tomatoes in California, process them into triple concentrate and ship them to Nigeria,” Mr Mathur, an Indian-born trader, says at the $12m plant that Olam, a leading commodities house, opened in Lagos this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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April 2014
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