Mon, Mar 30, 2015
A A A
Welcome preal121
RSS

Commodities Briefing - Category | Research more

Soft outlook for commodities in 2015: Analysts

Posted on 12 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

2015 looks to be a somewhat lacklustre year for commodities - global demand remains weak while an appreciating US dollar makes them more expensive. Palm oil prices are being supported by a supply shock, but analysts said they expect prices to follow in trend with other commodities.
With China’s growth on a moderating trend, global demand for commodities appears to be softening. Analysts said this, coupled with a supply glut - particularly in crude oil - would keep commodity prices low in the near-to-mid term………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Facts and fantasies about commodities

Posted on 09 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities were the worst performing asset class for the third year running in 2014. Investors, including some of the world’s largest pension funds, have seen billions of dollars of wealth disappear as a result of investing in commodity index products over the last decade.
So it is essential to understand what went wrong to help prevent a similar problem recurring in future. “Facts and fantasies about commodity futures,” first published in 2004 by Gary Gorton and Geert Rouwenhorst, proved one of the most influential research papers in 21st century finance………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The commodities outlook for 2015

Posted on 08 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold and palladium seen flat, upside potential in platinum and palladium. It will be another four or five years before commodity prices enter their next cycle and we start seeing an upward trend in prices again, says Cadiz Corporate Solutions Mining Specialist Peter Major.
Last year saw most commodities finish below their January starting price and, with the global economic growth outlook showing minimal upturn, there will be more of the same in 2015. “I don’t see gold going up. I definitely don’t see palladium going up. I think silver, zinc and lead look a bit cheap and copper is neutral to slightly pricy. But everybody is still happy to produce copper at current prices,” says Major………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China’s slowdown will see commodities falling 10pc in 2015

Posted on 05 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

IHS forecasts another tough year for commodities prices as China misses economic growth targets. If 2014 goes down as an “annus horribilis” for the commodities industry, few pundits are betting that prices will improve significantly over the next 12 months.
Across the board, from industrial metals through to soft commodities and oil, prices have dipped sharply over the last year as a combination of weakening demand growth and excess supply became a common theme across the entire sector………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Lead Outlook 2015: Another Small Deficit Expected

Posted on 05 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

2014 was a tough year for many metals, but fortunately for lead market participants, the base metal’s 2015 outlook is looking pretty positive. Case in point: the International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that demand for refined lead will increase by 2.1 percent in 2015, hitting 11.6 million tonnes, while refined lead output will grow by 2.2 percent, reaching just 11.5 million tonnes.
The organization thus anticipates a 23,000-tonne lead deficit in 2015, just slightly less than the 38,000-tonne deficit it sees coming in 2014. Similarly, a recent Reuters poll shows that analysts believe lead will sell for $2,387 per tonne in 2015 — that’s a year-over-year rise of 11.5 percent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities will continue to struggle in 2015: Credit Suisse

Posted on 02 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities have had a bad run last year and their losing streak could linger on into 2015, Credit Suisse Private Banking said in a report. Commodity prices fell this year and markets are still facing oversupply, commodity strategy analyst Stefan Graber noted.
He said that the oversuppy was due to “excessive” capital expenditure over the past few years. Since demand for commodities does not seem to be picking up, prices will have to fall further until production declines, he said, adding: “As commodity projects have long lead times, this process will take time.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities outlook 2015: Economic prospects

Posted on 23 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Following a number of years of sluggish performance, the UK economy finally seems to be heading in the right direction. But consumers continue to feel the pinch on spending, and with the European economy still depressed, selling into both domestic and export markets remains challenging, says Richard King, head of Andersons’ business research.
UK GDP growth improved to an estimated 3% in 2014 – and is forecast at 2.6% in 2015. “While this growth is good news, it may prove problematic to agriculture in the form of a stronger pound and bank base rate increases,” says Mr King………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price drop to persist, help global growth: IMF

Posted on 23 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent drop in oil prices should persist, helping to boost global economic activity by up to 0.7 percentage points next year, two senior IMF economists wrote in a blog on Monday. Brent prices have fallen more than 46 percent since the year’s peak in June of above $115 per barrel, sped up by the November decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not to reduce production.
Saudi Arabia has also convinced its fellow OPEC members it is not in the group’s interest to cut oil output, however far prices may fall, the kingdom’s oil minister said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global economy growth likely to be weaker than 2014: QNB

Posted on 23 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As 2014 comes to an end, the global economy shows signs of weakness with significant downside risks. Some of these risks are likely to materialise next year, leaving the global economy in worse shape than in 2014, QNB said in its Economic Commentary yesterday. It made five predictions that will expected to shape the global economic outlook for 2015 and beyond.
“Looking back, our expectations for 2014 were for a moderate recovery in the world economy that would enable an orderly exit from US Quantitative Easing (QE) and a resumption of global growth to its pre-crisis levels. The reality turned out to be quite different,” the Economic Commentary said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Amid gloom, some commodities show mettle

Posted on 22 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The year 2014 has been a forgettable one for most commodities with many such as crude oil, copper, steel, rubber and cotton seeing their prices head relentlessly south. China cutting back on commodity imports, Europe and Japan slipping again on growth, and the US Fed rolling back its easy money policy affected all commodities. But amidst all the gloom, a few bucked the trend.
From being among the worst performing metals last year, nickel, used mainly for making stainless steel, emerged as one of the top gainers of 2014. Following the Indonesian government’s ban in January on export of unprocessed nickel ore, supplies from the world’s largest producer shrank drastically………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global agri-commodities prices likely to remain volatile in 2015

Posted on 16 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Agricultural commodities are likely to remain volatile globally in 2015, with strong buying support on lows to keep prices elevated in the first half. However, global oversupply could pull these down in the second half.
A Rabobank study says the fundamentals in agri commodities appear more balanced through 2015, resulting in narrower trading ranges for many commodities versus 2014. On the demand side, growth has slowed in recent years. However, lower price levels should now encourage consumption growth, which will support prices. However, a strengthening dollar, uncertain Chinese demand growth, slowing biofuel demand and weakness in crude oil prices might spoil the party………………………………………Full Article: Source

Rabobank issues 2015 commodity market outlook

Posted on 15 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Agriculture financing giant Rabobank has published its outlook pertaining to global commodity markets in 2015, looking at issues of demand, supply and pricing across international commodities and forecasting a 12-month price outlook for 12 major commodities.
In the report, the bank’s Agri Commodities Markets Research analysts say fundamentals in the agri commodity markets appear more balanced through 2015, but they expect narrower trading ranges for many commodities versus 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

3 Things to Keep in Mind About Falling Oil Prices

Posted on 09 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Ten years ago, the kind of steep drop in oil prices we’ve seen in recent weeks would have been cause for unmitigated celebration. Economists almost universally analogized higher oil prices to a tax, with the proceeds largely going abroad to OPEC oil-producing countries. So any reduction in oil prices was viewed like a taxcut. Who could be against that?
It’s an indication of how much has changed in energy markets over the past decade that fallen oil prices are viewed with mixed feelings. Yes, some consumers are understandably happy that gas prices almost everywhere have dropped below $3 a gallon. But others worry that the falling oil prices, now down to the mid-$60s per barrel, and possibly falling to about $60 per barrel, will crimp efforts by U.S. shale oil producers to pump more oil out of existing wells and, worse, induce them to quit looking for more………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Economic Consequences of Global Oil Deflation

Posted on 09 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A new wild card has just been introduced into an already increasingly unstable global economy: a growing world glut of oil and consequent oil price deflation. Since June 2014, the price of high grade (ICE Brent) crude oil has fallen more than 40 percent, declining from around USD$115 a barrel, in January 2014, to just USD$67 a barrel at the end of November.
That’s the lowest since the bottom of the 2009 recession. The price decline has not only been deeper than expected in a normal cyclical correction, but also appears more than just a temporary event. Some predict global oil prices will fall below USD$60 a barrel in 2015, and could potentially fall as low as the USD$40 a barrel collapse that occurred during the 2008-09 recession………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rare Earth Metals Price Forecast: Will Cerium, Yttrium Demand Boost Future Prices?

Posted on 05 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As MetalMiner‘s monthly Rare Earths MMI steadied at a value of 23 in December, we put the Rare Earths “Celebrity Deathmatch” between Jack Lifton and Dudley Kingsnorth on hold. Some interest-piquing information surrounding the rare earth metals price outlook and forecast has come to our attention, via our friend (and Lifton’s colleague) Gareth Hatch of Technology Metals Research.
Recently Gareth covered the rare earths outlook on his blog, specifically from the comprehensive, no-stones-unturned viewpoint of Ryan Castilloux of Adamas Intelligence (573 report pages’ worth!). “2014 marks the dawn of a cautious revival for the rare earth industry,” Castilloux said in a video produced by Hatch and TMR………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rabobank issues agri-commodity market outlook for 2015

Posted on 04 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Rabobank has published its outlook for the global agri commodity markets in 2015, looking at issues of demand, supply and pricing across international agri commodities, and forecasting a 12-month price outlook for 12 major agri commodities. In the report, the bank’s Agri Commodities Markets Research analysts say that fundamentals in the agri commodity markets appear more balanced through 2015, but they expect narrower trading ranges for many commodities versus 2014. On the demand side, growth has slowed in recent years.
However, lower price levels should now encourage consumption growth, which will support prices. Rabobank says key variables to watch in the year ahead are U.S. dollar strength, uncertain Chinese demand growth, slowing biofuel demand, and oil price weakness. Stefan Vogel, global head of Rabobank Agri Commodities Markets Research, said, “2015 will be another interesting year for agri commodities. Macro drivers remain very much in play and price swings from supply and demand shocks are still likely, given that the stocks for most commodities are not yet at levels necessary to provide an adequate buffer.” (Press Release)

CEOs: Economic growth will be weak in 2015

Posted on 03 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

CEOs from major U.S. companies do not expect strong economic growth in 2015. The Business Roundtable’s fourth-quarter CEO Economic Outlook Index, a composite index of CEO expectations, fell slightly from the third quarter with declines concentrated in capital spending.
The index declined to 85.1 for the fourth quarter, compared with 86.4 in the third quarter. A reading of 50 or above indicates economic expansion and below 50, an economic contraction. The long-term forecast is at 80.3. Gross domestic product in 2015 is expected to grow 2.4 percent, consistent with the CEOs’ 2014 forecast………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The 2015 Metals Outlook Series: Nickel

Posted on 02 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The story of nickel is finally one of stability. Since 2005 the me­tal has been wracked by skyrocketing highs and sharp declines that have caused massive job losses and uncertainty that has seen an exodus from the sector by many of the larger players.
Much of this was due to a fall in stainless steel demand, working inversely to the growing demand for construction steel. IBISWorld put it succinctly: “Nickel prices, having reached unprecedented highs prior to the global financial crisis, plummeted as global economic growth slumped in subsequent years.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

The 2015 Metals Outlook Series: Gold

Posted on 27 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has peaked, but the current price schizophrenia of spikes and troughs that have been experienced over the last six months will soon be at an end. However there is still likely to be pain for a number of unproductive gold miners as the commodity price goes through a rationalisation phase operations with high costs per ounce are likely to fall as the market becomes tighter.
But how did we get to this point, and how did the great decade long Bull Run get to its current state, and where will it head in 2015? The rise and fall of the gold market did not happen overnight; and it is not the first time this market has moved this frenetically either…………………………………..Full Article: Source

ANZ Cuts Commodity Price Forecasts on Slowing Chinese Growth

Posted on 14 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. trimmed its price projections for commodities including oil, iron ore and nickel next year on slowing growth in China and rising inventories.
The bank cut its forecasts by an average 5.1 percent for next year and 3.8 percent for 2016, analysts including Mark Pervan wrote in a report today. The lender reduced its 2015 iron ore estimate by 22 percent to $78 a metric ton and its Brent crude outlook by 8.2 percent to $92 a barrel…………………………………Full Article: Source

Here’s What A Sustained $20 Drop In Oil Prices Does To The World’s Major Economies

Posted on 13 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices have been tumbling in recent weeks. The price of brent crude fell below $80 per barrel today for the first time in since September 2010. That’s down from around $115 earlier this summer.
A research note from Societe Generale’s Michala Marcussen takes a look at the possible effects of a drop in oil prices on the world economy. She plugged a sustained $20/barrel drop in oil prices into Britain’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s NiGEM software, a sophisticated global macroeconomic model, and saw what would happen to global GDP in the following years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iron Ore Seen by Citigroup Below $60 as 2015 Forecast Cut

Posted on 12 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iron ore prices will plummet to less than $60 a metric ton next year as global supply increases and demand remains weak, according to Citigroup Inc., which slashed its quarterly forecasts for 2015 by as much as 23 percent.
The raw material will average $72 a ton in the first three months of 2015, down from an earlier forecast of $82, Ivan Szpakowski, an analyst in Hong Kong, wrote in a report dated today. The second-quarter forecast was cut to $65 from $80, while the third was reduced to $60 from $78 and the figure for the final three months was put at $62 from $78, he wrote………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Upturn Seen By 2016

Posted on 11 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The resources boom may have faded, but the “super cycle” is far from over. That was the message from the Mining 2014 conference in Brisbane, Australia, with analysts forecasting an upturn even as key commodity prices continue to slide.
On Thursday, the price of iron ore dropped to a five-year low of $75.38 per ton in China, continuing a retreat that has seen the key steelmaking ingredient lose nearly half its value this year on a continued supply glut and weaker demand from China. According to Morgan Stanley, oversupply will drive the price of spot iron ore to $70 a ton by year-end, with the world’s biggest miners continuing to expand output………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold will get downside support from physical buying: Barclays

Posted on 05 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the near term, physical buying is likely to offer some support on the downside. The prospect of firmer rates, coupled with an expectation for a stronger dollar, present significant headwinds for gold and are likely to skew risks to the downside, a report by Barclays said.
Barclays has given a price forecast of Q4 2014:$1220/oz, 2014: $1271/oz, 2015: $1180/oz. Although the end of the asset purchase program was widely anticipated, the hawkish tilt was not, and the gold market again reacted negatively to the prospect of rate hikes. Gold has struggled to battle a stronger dollar and last week’s reaction underscores gold’s sensitivity to rising rates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What Next for the Gold Price?

Posted on 29 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is often the gateway ETF for many investors eager for exposure to the perceived safe haven. But what should we expect from the precious metal in the future? Commodity ETPs have seen their largest inflows in six weeks, with bargain-hunters attracted by depressed valuations. Inflows into physical gold reach six week high.
Several commodities including Brent, platinum, palladium and most industrial metals rose last week rebounding on the back of the better investor sentiment toward commodities. With many commodities trading so close to their marginal cost of production, we believe that prices cannot fall much lower without triggering a supply response. Better-than-expected GDP and industrial production data from China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities, also helped boost cyclical commodity prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goldman slashes its crude oil price forecasts by US$15 for 2015

Posted on 27 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs has cut its price forecast for Brent and West Texas Intermediate by US$15 a barrel for the first quarter of 2015 because rising production in non-OPEC countries outside North America is expected to outstrip demand.
The U.S. investment bank slashed its forecast for WTI to US$75 a barrel from US$90 and for Brent to US$85 a barrel from US$100, it said in a research note on Sunday. The bank’s analysts expect WTI to fall to as low as US$70 a barrel and Brent to US$80 a barrel during the second quarter of next year, when it expects oversupply to be the most pronounced………………………………………..Full Article: Source

5 reasons oil prices aren’t rising

Posted on 27 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The old oil bull market, the one where oil went to $140 per barrel, now feels like ancient history. Oil prices have recently been challenging lows not seen since 2012. Continuously rising oil prices not only translate to higher prices at the pump but also to higher prices of goods because of the increased production and transportation costs. But now the economy is dealing with steadily falling oil prices in recent months, which can contribute to deflation — itself a source of concern.
24/7 Wall St. wanted to focus on five key reasons the price of oil is not rising. There are, of course, more than just five reasons for oil prices not rising. We avoided the role of currency movements, which have lately added a new curve ball — the dollar has rallied against major currencies, and oil is priced in dollars. Another factor we have not explored is Iran. If Iran’s energy infrastructure comes back online in full, this could further add to downward pressures on oil prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bank of Canada to issue report on the effect of low oil prices

Posted on 23 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Bank of Canada’s latest read on the national economy is expected to explore a pressing question Wednesday: How much are low oil prices affecting the country’s bottom line? The price of oil recently hit a two-and-a-half year low, a sharp fall that is prompting Canadian policy-makers and the corporate world alike to reflect on the potential risks of lower prices.
The central bank has indicated it would attempt to measure the impact of tumbling prices in its quarterly monetary policy report, scheduled for release on Wednesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold demand up, more buying needed:Barclays

Posted on 22 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Given that the Diwali holiday is this week, ahead of the wedding season, Gold demand is expected to improve, potentially offsetting macro headwinds in the near term. However, buying needs to pick up materially to overwhelm the gold-negative external drivers, a report by Barclays said.
Broad risk reduction amid tumbling equity markets, the sharp decline in US 10y Treasuries, and weaker-than-expected US retail sales have fueled uncertainty and aided gold’s bounce. The gold-supportive macro environment has seen gold extend its gains above the $1200/oz mark as the dollar has weakened, the St Louis Fed discussed the possibility of further stimulus, and, importantly, demand picked up amid the seasonally strong period for consumption………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Crude Falls on OPEC Production Concerns

Posted on 21 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

U.S. and global crude benchmarks ended lower Monday amid choppy trading and concerns that member nations of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will maintain high production levels in a bid to compete for market share despite growing global crude supplies.
Light sweet crude futures for front-month November delivery ended the day down 4 cents at $82.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was steady in early trading but slipped through midmorning, and stabilized in the afternoon. November futures expire Tuesday and most of the volume in the market has moved forward into the December contract, which ended down 15 cents at $81.91 a barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA reduces global oil demand forecast again on slower economic growth

Posted on 21 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report (OMR) for October continues to reduce its forecast of global oil demand for 2014 by 200,000 b/d from the previous month, to 92.4 million b/d, in line with lower expectations of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth for 2014 is now projected at 700,000 b/d, rising tentatively to 1.1 million b/d in 2015, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.
In its October World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast of economic growth for 2014 and 2015 for the third time this year to 3.3% and 3.8% (vs. July’s 3.4% for 2014 and 4% for 2015) respectively, led by revisions for Europe, China, Brazil, and Russia………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA reduces global oil demand forecast again on slower economic growth

Posted on 21 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report (OMR) for October continues to reduce its forecast of global oil demand for 2014 by 200,000 b/d from the previous month, to 92.4 million b/d, in line with lower expectations of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth for 2014 is now projected at 700,000 b/d, rising tentatively to 1.1 million b/d in 2015, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.
In its October World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast of economic growth for 2014 and 2015 for the third time this year to 3.3% and 3.8% (vs. July’s 3.4% for 2014 and 4% for 2015) respectively, led by revisions for Europe, China, Brazil, and Russia………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why are commodity prices falling?

Posted on 20 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Abundant supplies and a slowed global economy, especially in China, led to a considerable decline in commodity prices. Moreover, the strong dollar and fiscal stimulus withdrawal in the U.S., sanctions against and by Russia, as well as an increase in oil production were also influential. Bulgaria on Air reports.
The slowdown in Chinese demand for milk powder and a good harvest contributed to the drop, particularly in the foods market. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) cereal price index in August dropped by 11.7 percent, in comparison to last year, and by 1.5 percent compared to July. Wheat and corn prices hit a four-year low. Iron-ore hit a five-year low, sugar is the lowest since 2009 and oil the lowest since June 2012………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price upside limited in 2015 - Scotiabank

Posted on 20 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the latest edition of the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index, published on Thursday, Scotiabank economist Pat Mohr observed, ““Spot gold prices fell as low as US$1,183 intra-day on October 5 - re-testing the previous low of US$1,180 on June 20, 2013 - after the Fed Chairman indicated that Federal Reserve Board would likely reduce its ‘asset purchase program’ in 2014 (quantitative easing),” Mohr observed in her analysis.
“Miners continue to cut costs in today’s lower price environment - reducing ‘all-in sustaining cash costs for high-cost producers at the 80th percentile to no more than US$1,055,” she said. “While we think the upside on gold prices will be limited in the coming year, the successful re-testing of the previous low shows some support for gold,” Mohr suggested……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Declines in commodity prices likely to continue through 2015, says WB report

Posted on 17 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Prices of most commodities, particularly oil, are expected to remain weak for the remainder of this year and through much of 2015, says the World Bank’s latest issue of Commodity Markets Outlook. Growing concern over a slowdown in the Euro Area and emerging economies, a strong US dollar, a well-supplied oil market and good crop prospects have contributed to a weakening of many commodity prices since the summer. The World Bank energy price index declined by about 6 percent during the third quarter, after being broadly stable in the first half of the year.
“A broad-based expansion in commodity supply is coinciding with weakness in global growth, especially in emerging economies, where most of the demand expansion has been taking place,” said Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s Development Prospects Group………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Thomson Reuters Publishes GFMS Copper Survey Update 2014

Posted on 16 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Thomson Reuters today released an interim update to the 2014 edition of the GFMS Copper Survey: Growth spurt in supply as global consumption slows, sets scene for further price weakness. Copper is forecast to average $6,810/tonne in 2014 (3-month LME), a 7.3% decline year-on-year.
Notwithstanding the weak performance year-to-date, down 10.5% year-on-year, we expect the metal to trade lower in the final quarter with a forecast of $6,500/tonne, or an approximate 2% decline from current prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World LPG prices plummet on financial market weakness

Posted on 15 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that PIRA’s restructured U.S. gasoline balances provide greater clarity and insight. In the U.S., large crude stock build, small product stock draw, and widening commercial stock excess. In Japan, crude stocks build despite higher runs. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:
PIRA’s restructured US Gasoline balances provide greater clarity and insight: PIRA’s restructured gasoline balances are in response to the steep decline in volume and the relevance of finished gasoline stocks and imports. The changes to the EIA’s finished balance came about as a result of the decline in MTBE and the rise in ethanol, as the oxygenate of choice………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Barclays remains cautious on gold prices

Posted on 14 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The precious metals endured intense downward pressure a week ago amid a stronger dollar and firmer rates, and last week a reversal of the macro dynamics has enabled the precious metals, gold in particular, to stage something of a bounce.
In line with Barclays expectations, from the lows reached at the end of last week, both of the PGMs have staged the strongest recovery with gold prices trading back above $1200 an ounce, as physical buying has returned in both India and China w/w. However, Barclays remains cautious on gold prices, and continue to see the macro environment presenting headwinds and would look for opportunities to sell into a rally………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Palladium Still the Fairest Precious Metal: BMO Capital Markets

Posted on 14 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

BMO Capital Markets made waves last week with the announcement that it’s lowered its price expectations for gold , silver and platinum. That’s bad news for precious metals investors, but luckily there’s still one such metal that the firm believes will do well. That, of course, is palladium.
In a report, BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Jessica Fung said the firm sees gold averaging $1,190 per ounce in 2015, lower than its previous forecast of $1,275, and $1,238 in 2016, a drop from $1,250. Meanwhile, it sees platinum averaging $1,413 in 2015, down from the previously announced $1,500, and just $1,425 in 2016, a decline from $1,550………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold rebounds on reversal of macro dynamics, caution advised: Barclays

Posted on 13 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has rebounded on reversal of macro dynamics after witnessing intense downward pressure last week on stronger dollar nd firmer rates. With demand returning to India and China, precious metals seem to be a on a better footing. However, Barclays said it remains cautious on gold prices and continue to see the macro environment preseting headwinds and would look for opportunities to sell into a rally.
Gold prices are trading back above $1200/oz, buoyed by a relatively more supportive external environment w/w,as well as gold-specific factors turning comparatively positive.The FOMC minutes provided a boost to gold as markets concluded that the Fed may remain patient before moving to rate hikes. Meanwhile, physical demand has materialised at lower price levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

BMO cuts gold, silver, platinum price outlook

Posted on 10 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

BMO Capital Markets warns miners should prepare for a “prolonged period of sub-US$1,200/oz gold prices.” As a result, “many of the gold producer equities will struggle, especially those with higher cash costs and/or high debt loads,” cautioned BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Jessica Fung in a report issued October 7th.
“Gold, silver and platinum prices remain under considerable pressure due to expectations for the U.S. dollar to continue strengthening,” Fung advised. BMO has lowered 2015-16E gold prices from $1,275 to $1,190 in 2015 and from $1,250 to $1,238 in 2016 to reflect recent price performance, adding “BMO Research does not expect any upset for gold from current levels until H2/16E based on U.S. dollar forecasts.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

IMF forecasts weigh on oil

Posted on 09 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices fell further in Asian trade on Wednesday on demand concerns after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its the global economic growth forecasts, analysts said. The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate for November delivery, was down 35 cents at a 17-month low of $88.50 a barrel in late-morning trade and Brent crude eased 36 cents to $91.75 - lows not seen since mid-2012. Both contracts tumbled on Tuesday.
Singapore’s United Overseas Bank said in a note that prices were being “pressured by reduced economic and demand growth forecasts”. The IMF on Tuesday said the global economy would grow 3.3 percent this year, down 0.1 percentage point from July’s estimate and 0.4 points off its April forecast………………………………………..Full Article: Source

BMO Cuts Gold, Silver, Platinum Forecasts for 2015

Posted on 09 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

BMO Capital Markets cut its outlook for gold, silver and platinum prices, predicting that the precious metals will lag other commodity markets next year. In a research report regarding 2015 forecasts, the Canadian bank lowered its average 2015 gold forecast to $1,190 an ounce, down from $1,275. It reduced its silver forecast to $17.50 from $20.25 and its platinum forecast to $1,413 from $1,500.
As of Wednesday afternoon, gold for December delivery had fallen 0.53% to was trading at $1,206 per ounce. BMO, however, raised its palladium outlook to $860 from $853 and predicted that nickel and aluminum likely finding support on improving fundamentals………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity themes 2015: Expect metals to be bullish, Oil to fall further

Posted on 08 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Amidst a strengthening US dollar, rise in equity markets, commodities are likely to underperform in the coming months. However, metals complex appears bullish,according to a new report titled Commodity Themes 2015 released by Deutsche Bank.
Brent oil physical fundamentals are weak and appearance of contango in Brent oil market will eventually be met with OPEC production cuts to tighten fundamentals and restore backwardation.Falling Brent crude oil prices are already impacting budgetary positions among the major oil producers. History shows that when OPEC takes action and cuts production, their efforts to stabilise and push oil prices are successful. However, this is contingent on world GDP growth in excess of 2.5%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

EIA sees lower OPEC output, weaker demand growth in 2015

Posted on 08 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The U.S. Energy Information Administration trimmed its forecast of world oil demand growth next year and made even deeper cuts in its outlook for OPEC production, the latest signs of a shift toward surplus supplies next year. The EIA cut its 2014 global demand forecast to 91.47 million barrels a day, compared with 91.55 million bpd expected last month, according to a monthly report from the agency on Tuesday.
As a result, it now expects consumption to rise by 1.24 million bpd, down 100,000 bpd from the previous month’s report but still higher than the 1 mln bpd increase estimated for 2014. On the backdrop of weakening demand, the agency curbed its forecasts for OPEC oil and other liquid fuels production to 35.51 million barrels a day in 2015, down 350,000 bpd from last month’s forecast………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Plunge Magnifies Russia’s Sanctions Pain: Chart of the Day

Posted on 08 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices that have plunged to a 27-month low are inflicting damage on a Russian economy already contending with escalating sanctions from the U.S. and European Union over its role in Ukraine. The CHART OF THE DAY shows how an average oil price of $90 a barrel, close to where prices are now, would give Russia a budget deficit of 1.2 percent of gross domestic product next year, according to Sberbank CIB, the investment bank of Russia’s biggest lender.
The right axis shows the budget balance as a percentage of GDP under different oil-price scenarios. The left axis measures spending and revenues in trillions of rubles………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Soft Commodities - Third-Quarter Review And Outlook For The Rest Of 2014

Posted on 07 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The composite of five soft commodities - sugar, coffee, cocoa, cotton and frozen concentrated orange juice futures - fell by 3% during Q3. The sector is up 13.83% for the first nine months of 2014. While commodity prices in general fell, there were some bright spots for bulls in this sector of “luxury” commodities.
Let us look at the action in the softs and the outlook for the balance of 2014. The price of sugar moved 14.41% lower in Q4, but is up 2.3% through the first nine months of 2014. Sugar traded in a range of 13.32 cents to 19.83 cents per pound thus far in 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Sterne Agee Sees Gold at $1,400 in 2015

Posted on 07 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s only natural that last week’s drop in gold prices would have investors wondering where the precious metal will trade a year from now. According to Sterne Agee analysts Michael Dudas and Satyadeep Jain, gold and silver prices will trend higher as “global demand remains firm, liquidity remains ample and the dollar appears overbought.”
How high? Dudas and Jain forecast gold prices averaging $1,400 in 2015 and $1,450 in 2016. As for silver prices, the pair see an average price of 19 next year and $21 in 2016. For investors, the pair recommend gold midnight stocks, rating Newmont Mining (NEM), Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), Coeur Mining (CDE) and Gold Resources (GORO) as Buys………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investors rush to sell commodities ETFs in September, says Markit

Posted on 03 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors rushed to sell holdings in commodity exchange traded funds (ETFs) in September, data from Markit showed on Thursday, as prices slumped for the month. Physical gold ETF holdings saw a monthly outflow of $1.67 billion, the biggest drop this year, while sugar saw a fall of $315 million the largest outflow for any month for the past five years, the data showed.
Gold futures fell 6.1 per cent in September, the biggest such slide since June 2013, while sugar prices fell to the lowest level in more than four years last month with the slide driven by abundant supply. There were outflows of $221 million from crude oil for the month, the biggest such movement since May. The price of Brent crude fell 8.3 per cent, its biggest drop since May 2012………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IMF calls for more global growth

Posted on 03 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged new momentum to fuel global economic growth that has recovered slower than expected. Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director, said on Thursday that the main job now is to help the global economy shift gears and overcome what has been so far a disappointing recovery - one that is brittle, uneven and beset by risks.
“Yes there is a recovery but as we all know, and can all feel it, the level of growth and jobs is simply not good enough. The world needs to aim higher and try harder, to do it together and be country-specific,” Lagarde told an audience of mostly students and faculty at Georgetown University in Washington………………………………………..Full Article: Source

banner
banner
March 2015
S M T W T F S
« Feb    
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031