Tue, Oct 21, 2014
A A A
Welcome kbr175@gmail.com
RSS

Commodities Briefing - Category | Research more

Crude Falls on OPEC Production Concerns

Posted on 21 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

U.S. and global crude benchmarks ended lower Monday amid choppy trading and concerns that member nations of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will maintain high production levels in a bid to compete for market share despite growing global crude supplies.
Light sweet crude futures for front-month November delivery ended the day down 4 cents at $82.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was steady in early trading but slipped through midmorning, and stabilized in the afternoon. November futures expire Tuesday and most of the volume in the market has moved forward into the December contract, which ended down 15 cents at $81.91 a barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA reduces global oil demand forecast again on slower economic growth

Posted on 21 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report (OMR) for October continues to reduce its forecast of global oil demand for 2014 by 200,000 b/d from the previous month, to 92.4 million b/d, in line with lower expectations of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth for 2014 is now projected at 700,000 b/d, rising tentatively to 1.1 million b/d in 2015, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.
In its October World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast of economic growth for 2014 and 2015 for the third time this year to 3.3% and 3.8% (vs. July’s 3.4% for 2014 and 4% for 2015) respectively, led by revisions for Europe, China, Brazil, and Russia………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA reduces global oil demand forecast again on slower economic growth

Posted on 21 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report (OMR) for October continues to reduce its forecast of global oil demand for 2014 by 200,000 b/d from the previous month, to 92.4 million b/d, in line with lower expectations of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth for 2014 is now projected at 700,000 b/d, rising tentatively to 1.1 million b/d in 2015, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.
In its October World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast of economic growth for 2014 and 2015 for the third time this year to 3.3% and 3.8% (vs. July’s 3.4% for 2014 and 4% for 2015) respectively, led by revisions for Europe, China, Brazil, and Russia………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why are commodity prices falling?

Posted on 20 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Abundant supplies and a slowed global economy, especially in China, led to a considerable decline in commodity prices. Moreover, the strong dollar and fiscal stimulus withdrawal in the U.S., sanctions against and by Russia, as well as an increase in oil production were also influential. Bulgaria on Air reports.
The slowdown in Chinese demand for milk powder and a good harvest contributed to the drop, particularly in the foods market. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) cereal price index in August dropped by 11.7 percent, in comparison to last year, and by 1.5 percent compared to July. Wheat and corn prices hit a four-year low. Iron-ore hit a five-year low, sugar is the lowest since 2009 and oil the lowest since June 2012………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price upside limited in 2015 - Scotiabank

Posted on 20 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the latest edition of the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index, published on Thursday, Scotiabank economist Pat Mohr observed, ““Spot gold prices fell as low as US$1,183 intra-day on October 5 - re-testing the previous low of US$1,180 on June 20, 2013 - after the Fed Chairman indicated that Federal Reserve Board would likely reduce its ‘asset purchase program’ in 2014 (quantitative easing),” Mohr observed in her analysis.
“Miners continue to cut costs in today’s lower price environment - reducing ‘all-in sustaining cash costs for high-cost producers at the 80th percentile to no more than US$1,055,” she said. “While we think the upside on gold prices will be limited in the coming year, the successful re-testing of the previous low shows some support for gold,” Mohr suggested……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Declines in commodity prices likely to continue through 2015, says WB report

Posted on 17 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Prices of most commodities, particularly oil, are expected to remain weak for the remainder of this year and through much of 2015, says the World Bank’s latest issue of Commodity Markets Outlook. Growing concern over a slowdown in the Euro Area and emerging economies, a strong US dollar, a well-supplied oil market and good crop prospects have contributed to a weakening of many commodity prices since the summer. The World Bank energy price index declined by about 6 percent during the third quarter, after being broadly stable in the first half of the year.
“A broad-based expansion in commodity supply is coinciding with weakness in global growth, especially in emerging economies, where most of the demand expansion has been taking place,” said Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s Development Prospects Group………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Thomson Reuters Publishes GFMS Copper Survey Update 2014

Posted on 16 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Thomson Reuters today released an interim update to the 2014 edition of the GFMS Copper Survey: Growth spurt in supply as global consumption slows, sets scene for further price weakness. Copper is forecast to average $6,810/tonne in 2014 (3-month LME), a 7.3% decline year-on-year.
Notwithstanding the weak performance year-to-date, down 10.5% year-on-year, we expect the metal to trade lower in the final quarter with a forecast of $6,500/tonne, or an approximate 2% decline from current prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World LPG prices plummet on financial market weakness

Posted on 15 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that PIRA’s restructured U.S. gasoline balances provide greater clarity and insight. In the U.S., large crude stock build, small product stock draw, and widening commercial stock excess. In Japan, crude stocks build despite higher runs. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:
PIRA’s restructured US Gasoline balances provide greater clarity and insight: PIRA’s restructured gasoline balances are in response to the steep decline in volume and the relevance of finished gasoline stocks and imports. The changes to the EIA’s finished balance came about as a result of the decline in MTBE and the rise in ethanol, as the oxygenate of choice………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Barclays remains cautious on gold prices

Posted on 14 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The precious metals endured intense downward pressure a week ago amid a stronger dollar and firmer rates, and last week a reversal of the macro dynamics has enabled the precious metals, gold in particular, to stage something of a bounce.
In line with Barclays expectations, from the lows reached at the end of last week, both of the PGMs have staged the strongest recovery with gold prices trading back above $1200 an ounce, as physical buying has returned in both India and China w/w. However, Barclays remains cautious on gold prices, and continue to see the macro environment presenting headwinds and would look for opportunities to sell into a rally………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Palladium Still the Fairest Precious Metal: BMO Capital Markets

Posted on 14 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

BMO Capital Markets made waves last week with the announcement that it’s lowered its price expectations for gold , silver and platinum. That’s bad news for precious metals investors, but luckily there’s still one such metal that the firm believes will do well. That, of course, is palladium.
In a report, BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Jessica Fung said the firm sees gold averaging $1,190 per ounce in 2015, lower than its previous forecast of $1,275, and $1,238 in 2016, a drop from $1,250. Meanwhile, it sees platinum averaging $1,413 in 2015, down from the previously announced $1,500, and just $1,425 in 2016, a decline from $1,550………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold rebounds on reversal of macro dynamics, caution advised: Barclays

Posted on 13 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has rebounded on reversal of macro dynamics after witnessing intense downward pressure last week on stronger dollar nd firmer rates. With demand returning to India and China, precious metals seem to be a on a better footing. However, Barclays said it remains cautious on gold prices and continue to see the macro environment preseting headwinds and would look for opportunities to sell into a rally.
Gold prices are trading back above $1200/oz, buoyed by a relatively more supportive external environment w/w,as well as gold-specific factors turning comparatively positive.The FOMC minutes provided a boost to gold as markets concluded that the Fed may remain patient before moving to rate hikes. Meanwhile, physical demand has materialised at lower price levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

BMO cuts gold, silver, platinum price outlook

Posted on 10 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

BMO Capital Markets warns miners should prepare for a “prolonged period of sub-US$1,200/oz gold prices.” As a result, “many of the gold producer equities will struggle, especially those with higher cash costs and/or high debt loads,” cautioned BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Jessica Fung in a report issued October 7th.
“Gold, silver and platinum prices remain under considerable pressure due to expectations for the U.S. dollar to continue strengthening,” Fung advised. BMO has lowered 2015-16E gold prices from $1,275 to $1,190 in 2015 and from $1,250 to $1,238 in 2016 to reflect recent price performance, adding “BMO Research does not expect any upset for gold from current levels until H2/16E based on U.S. dollar forecasts.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

IMF forecasts weigh on oil

Posted on 09 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices fell further in Asian trade on Wednesday on demand concerns after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its the global economic growth forecasts, analysts said. The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate for November delivery, was down 35 cents at a 17-month low of $88.50 a barrel in late-morning trade and Brent crude eased 36 cents to $91.75 - lows not seen since mid-2012. Both contracts tumbled on Tuesday.
Singapore’s United Overseas Bank said in a note that prices were being “pressured by reduced economic and demand growth forecasts”. The IMF on Tuesday said the global economy would grow 3.3 percent this year, down 0.1 percentage point from July’s estimate and 0.4 points off its April forecast………………………………………..Full Article: Source

BMO Cuts Gold, Silver, Platinum Forecasts for 2015

Posted on 09 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

BMO Capital Markets cut its outlook for gold, silver and platinum prices, predicting that the precious metals will lag other commodity markets next year. In a research report regarding 2015 forecasts, the Canadian bank lowered its average 2015 gold forecast to $1,190 an ounce, down from $1,275. It reduced its silver forecast to $17.50 from $20.25 and its platinum forecast to $1,413 from $1,500.
As of Wednesday afternoon, gold for December delivery had fallen 0.53% to was trading at $1,206 per ounce. BMO, however, raised its palladium outlook to $860 from $853 and predicted that nickel and aluminum likely finding support on improving fundamentals………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity themes 2015: Expect metals to be bullish, Oil to fall further

Posted on 08 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Amidst a strengthening US dollar, rise in equity markets, commodities are likely to underperform in the coming months. However, metals complex appears bullish,according to a new report titled Commodity Themes 2015 released by Deutsche Bank.
Brent oil physical fundamentals are weak and appearance of contango in Brent oil market will eventually be met with OPEC production cuts to tighten fundamentals and restore backwardation.Falling Brent crude oil prices are already impacting budgetary positions among the major oil producers. History shows that when OPEC takes action and cuts production, their efforts to stabilise and push oil prices are successful. However, this is contingent on world GDP growth in excess of 2.5%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

EIA sees lower OPEC output, weaker demand growth in 2015

Posted on 08 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The U.S. Energy Information Administration trimmed its forecast of world oil demand growth next year and made even deeper cuts in its outlook for OPEC production, the latest signs of a shift toward surplus supplies next year. The EIA cut its 2014 global demand forecast to 91.47 million barrels a day, compared with 91.55 million bpd expected last month, according to a monthly report from the agency on Tuesday.
As a result, it now expects consumption to rise by 1.24 million bpd, down 100,000 bpd from the previous month’s report but still higher than the 1 mln bpd increase estimated for 2014. On the backdrop of weakening demand, the agency curbed its forecasts for OPEC oil and other liquid fuels production to 35.51 million barrels a day in 2015, down 350,000 bpd from last month’s forecast………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Plunge Magnifies Russia’s Sanctions Pain: Chart of the Day

Posted on 08 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices that have plunged to a 27-month low are inflicting damage on a Russian economy already contending with escalating sanctions from the U.S. and European Union over its role in Ukraine. The CHART OF THE DAY shows how an average oil price of $90 a barrel, close to where prices are now, would give Russia a budget deficit of 1.2 percent of gross domestic product next year, according to Sberbank CIB, the investment bank of Russia’s biggest lender.
The right axis shows the budget balance as a percentage of GDP under different oil-price scenarios. The left axis measures spending and revenues in trillions of rubles………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Soft Commodities - Third-Quarter Review And Outlook For The Rest Of 2014

Posted on 07 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The composite of five soft commodities - sugar, coffee, cocoa, cotton and frozen concentrated orange juice futures - fell by 3% during Q3. The sector is up 13.83% for the first nine months of 2014. While commodity prices in general fell, there were some bright spots for bulls in this sector of “luxury” commodities.
Let us look at the action in the softs and the outlook for the balance of 2014. The price of sugar moved 14.41% lower in Q4, but is up 2.3% through the first nine months of 2014. Sugar traded in a range of 13.32 cents to 19.83 cents per pound thus far in 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Sterne Agee Sees Gold at $1,400 in 2015

Posted on 07 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s only natural that last week’s drop in gold prices would have investors wondering where the precious metal will trade a year from now. According to Sterne Agee analysts Michael Dudas and Satyadeep Jain, gold and silver prices will trend higher as “global demand remains firm, liquidity remains ample and the dollar appears overbought.”
How high? Dudas and Jain forecast gold prices averaging $1,400 in 2015 and $1,450 in 2016. As for silver prices, the pair see an average price of 19 next year and $21 in 2016. For investors, the pair recommend gold midnight stocks, rating Newmont Mining (NEM), Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), Coeur Mining (CDE) and Gold Resources (GORO) as Buys………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investors rush to sell commodities ETFs in September, says Markit

Posted on 03 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors rushed to sell holdings in commodity exchange traded funds (ETFs) in September, data from Markit showed on Thursday, as prices slumped for the month. Physical gold ETF holdings saw a monthly outflow of $1.67 billion, the biggest drop this year, while sugar saw a fall of $315 million the largest outflow for any month for the past five years, the data showed.
Gold futures fell 6.1 per cent in September, the biggest such slide since June 2013, while sugar prices fell to the lowest level in more than four years last month with the slide driven by abundant supply. There were outflows of $221 million from crude oil for the month, the biggest such movement since May. The price of Brent crude fell 8.3 per cent, its biggest drop since May 2012………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IMF calls for more global growth

Posted on 03 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged new momentum to fuel global economic growth that has recovered slower than expected. Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director, said on Thursday that the main job now is to help the global economy shift gears and overcome what has been so far a disappointing recovery - one that is brittle, uneven and beset by risks.
“Yes there is a recovery but as we all know, and can all feel it, the level of growth and jobs is simply not good enough. The world needs to aim higher and try harder, to do it together and be country-specific,” Lagarde told an audience of mostly students and faculty at Georgetown University in Washington………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global Oil market balances to deteriorate in 2015: PIRA Energy

Posted on 02 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that PIRA is cautiously optimistic the global economy will withstand the Fed’s policy shift. In the U.S., stock build slows. In Japan, crude runs perk up, crude stocks draw. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:
World Oil market forecast, September 2014: PIRA is cautiously optimistic the global economy will withstand the Fed’s policy shift and lift into next year with growth above trend. Despite this, and a rebound in oil demand growth, oil market balances are forecast to deteriorate in 2015. Low first half 2014 stocks hid blemishes but now that inventories have rebuilt………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Energy Economist: The shifting fundamentals of commodity demand

Posted on 24 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Economic growth in emerging markets has driven energy commodity demand over the last decade, but that growth is now slowing. According to the IMF, GDP growth in emerging markets fell from 7% a year on average in 2003-2008 to 6% in 2010-13.
The Fund forecasts that emerging market growth will dip further to 5% from 2014-2018. The medium-term outlook is no better. The IMF writes: “In the past, we expected growth to bounce back (and it did). This time seems different.” One of the expected spillover effects is lower commodity prices. Despite ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, the supply/demand balance in the oil market continues to look increasingly bearish………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Great American Group Analysts See Prices Rise for Many Base Metals

Posted on 24 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Analysts with GA Advisory and Valuation Services, LLC, a division of Great American Group, Inc. report that pricing has increased for a number of non-ferrous metals in recent months amid tight physical supplies, despite lackluster demand in certain segments. In particular, pricing for aluminum, zinc, and lead climbed higher than expected.
“Stockpiles are dwindling and supply deficits are expected for these metals,” noted Michael Petruski, Executive Vice President of Great American Group’s Advisory and Valuation Services division. “Zinc prices have jumped nearly 25% over the year, as zinc production is slated to fall short of demand for the first time in seven years.” (Press Release)

Moody’s cuts price assumptions for natural gas, oil through 2015

Posted on 23 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Moody’s Investors Service last week reduced its assumptions for average spot prices for North American natural gas after a mild summer cut demand for gas-powered electricity. Moody’s also cut its assumption for the spot prices for the two benchmark barrels of crude, European Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Oil prices dropped this past summer due in part to slower economic growth in some of the world’s major economies, a strengthened U.S. dollar, and growing non-OPEC supply, Moody’s said.
The rating agency lowered its price assumption for North American benchmark Henry Hub natural gas to $3.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) through 2015, a 50-cent decrease from its earlier assumption of $4.25/MMBtu set in June. However, its assumptions for 2016 and beyond are unchanged at $4/MMBtu………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold-silver price ratio may fall as gold cools faster

Posted on 23 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The price of gold might fall more than that of silver this year, taking the price ratio between the two precious metals back towards its five-year average. Gold has been on a downtrend as pickup in global economies has reduced demand for this safe asset. This may offer music to the ears of Indian consumers, as they begin to purchase jewellery for the festival and marriage seasons.
ET data show the gold-silver ratio averaged 55.71 in the five years through end-2013. This means 55.71 kg of silver is needed to purchase a kilogram of gold. But, year-to-date, this ratio has climbed to 65.26, as silver has become more undervalued. The ratio was calculated based on average annual prices of front month gold and silver contracts on Multi Commodity Exchange………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The U.S. Oil And Gas Industry By The Numbers

Posted on 18 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Have you ever wondered about the impressive numbers behind the U.S. oil and gas industry? The following infographic has all the answers. Even though oil production reached nearly 9,000,000 barrels per day in 2012, most people in the US are talking about “fracking”, slang for hydraulic fracturing, the controversial method for extracting shale gas.
There were about 45,000 fracking wells in the US in 2012 and the production of shale gas is skyrocketing as a result. Back in 2004, US shale gas production amounted to 0.6 trillion cubic feet and nearly 10 years on, that number has soared to 8.6 trillion…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodity price slump is a matter of perspective

Posted on 12 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices may have come under pressure this year, but they are still 115 per cent above their 1990s average, with iron ore and oil up over 500 per cent, according to a long-term analysis of commodity prices by HSBC.
But taking an even long-term view back to the 19th century, commodity prices are actually about normal, HSBC found. In the future, sugar and meat prices will increase sharply, oil will go up further, and metal prices will remain strong, the bank’s economists predict………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA Cuts 2015 Oil Demand Forecasts

Posted on 12 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency Thursday trimmed its forecast for the rise in oil demand this year for the third month in a row, calling the recent slowdown in demand “nothing short of remarkable.” In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the Paris-based energy watchdog said it expects global oil demand to grow by 0.9 million barrels a day in 2014, a decrease of 65,000 barrels a day compared with last month’s forecast and down by 300,000 barrels a day since July.
According to the IEA, oil demand growth in the second quarter was at its lowest in 2½ years, dented by economic weakness in Europe and China, a trend the agency expects will continue to weigh on demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA Cuts Demand Estimate as Saudi Exports Drop to 2011 Low

Posted on 12 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency cut its global oil demand forecasts for 2015 and said Saudi Arabia exported the least in almost three years as purchases slowed from China and Europe.
Global demand will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day, or 1.3 percent, to 93.8 million barrels a day next year, the Paris-based adviser to 29 nations said in a report today. The expansion is 165,000 barrels a day less than it predicted a month ago. Second-quarter growth in consumption slid to a 2 1/2-year low, spurring Saudi Arabia’s shipments to the lowest since September 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

August Sees Further Consolidation in Commodity Markets

Posted on 11 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

August was a mixed period for commodities as the market saw further consolidation, according to Credit Suisse Asset Management. The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return performance was negative for the month, with 13 out of 22 Index constituents trading lower. Credit Suisse Asset Management observed the following: Livestock was the worst performing sector, down 4.18%, led by Lean Hogs. A decrease in demand expectations due to Russia’s ban on US pork, coupled with reduced cases of PED Virus continued to add to downward pricing pressure.
Agriculture decreased 2.25%, led lower by Soybean Oil. Wheat was the only grain to end the month in positive territory amid concerns that supplies from the Black Sea region might be disrupted due to escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Precious Metals declined 1.00%, led lower by Silver. While Gold was supported by geopolitical uncertainty, the strengthening US Dollar and slowing physical demand weighed on Silver. (Press Release)

HSBC Global Research Commodity prices snapshot

Posted on 03 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global commodity prices fell in August, with declines across a broad range of commodity types. Our indicator suggests the IMF commodity price index is likely to have fallen by -4.0% in August, to be -4.2% lower than a year earlier. For the second month in a row, oil prices fell noticeably despite on-going geopolitical tensions.
Meanwhile, the prospect of a good harvest in the northern hemisphere continued to weigh on a broad range of agricultural commodity prices, particularly grains and vegetable oils. Metals prices were more mixed, with aluminium continuing its recent price gains, while copper and nickel prices fell. (Press Release)

HSBC Sees Gold Ranging From $1,150 To $1,350 For Rest Of 2014

Posted on 03 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

HSBC said Tuesday it sees gold trading in a range of $1,150 to $1,350 an ounce during the remainder of 2014 in a market “searching for a new equilibrium” with a number of offsetting factors. The bank left its 2014 average price forecast at $1,292 an ounce and listed 2015 and 2016 forecasts of $1,310 and $1,345.
“Gold is searching for a new equilibrium after last year’s price plunge, which ended the more than decade-long bull run,” HSBC said. “The massive gold-exchange-traded funds (ETFs) outflows of 2013 –which were instrumental in driving prices lower – have largely abated. Another positive is that net long positions on the Comex are rebuilding. Other factors supporting prices are that mine production gains are plateauing, scrap supplies are down and central bank demand is steady.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

IEA predicts slowdown in global renewable energy expansion through 2020

Posted on 02 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A new report from International Energy Agency (IEA) has revealed that the annual growth in new renewable power will slow and stabilize after 2014 due to policy uncertainty and the absence of grid integration measures. The agency warns that it may fall short of delivering the generation required to meet global climate change objectives.
Wind, solar and hydro and other renewables will account for approximately 26% of global electricity generation by the end of 2020 from about 22% in 2013. The report said the expansion will slow in the next five years unless policy uncertainty is diminished………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global recovery continues at varying speeds, equity the best bet: Bank J Safra Sarasin

Posted on 01 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As the global economic recovery is continuing at varying speeds equities remain the most attractive asset class mid-term, a report by Bank J. Safra Sarasin said. The US leads the global cycle with growth significantly higher than in Euroland.
Euroland is hampered by high debt levels, ongoing economic imbalances, adverse geopolitical headwinds like the crisis in Ukraine and the urgent need for structural reforms, the report said.Inflation remains low globally, preventing a premature increase of policy rates and a bond market crash. The spectre of deflation is particularly strong in Euroland and needs to be addressed by demand and supply side policies………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global oil and gas transaction activity by sector

Posted on 20 August 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In 2013, the total disclosed oil and gas transaction value was US$ 337 billion. This total was significantly lower (down 21%) than the record high of US$ 423 billion posted in 2012. EY notes that in 2013, there was a reduced willingness to commit to larger transactions. In 2012, 98 oil and gas transactions exceeded US$ 1 billion, compared with just 70 in 2013. In 2012, there were four ‘mega-deals’, with reported values over US$ 10 billion, but in 2013 there were only three.
Transaction activity in the oilfield services (OFC) sector declined in 2013, with 185 deals announced compared with 243 in 2012 and 201 in 2011. According to EY, the average disclosed deal value fell from US$ 244 million to US$ 179 million, marking a continuous decline from the 2011 peak of US$ 416 million………………………………………..Full Article: Source

U.S. Cuts 2014 Oil Price Forecast as Production Surges

Posted on 13 August 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Energy Information Administration decreased its 2014 price forecast for West Texas Intermediate crudes after the U.S. reached its highest monthly production in 27 years.
WTI will average $100.45 a barrel this year versus the July projection of $100.98, the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical unit, said today in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. Brent will average $108.11, down from $109.55. Oil output was 8.5 million barrels a day in July, the most since April 1987, the EIA said………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA raises call on OPEC crude oil for rest of 2014, 2015

Posted on 13 August 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency said Tuesday it sees a need for more OPEC crude on the global market for the remainder of 2014 and in 2015 than it previously forecast despite global demand growth being curtailed.
In its latest monthly oil report, the IEA raised the “call” on OPEC by a combined 400,000 b/d for the third and fourth quarters to 30.8 million b/d. This compares to previous forecasts of 30.7 and 30.5 million b/d, respectively. For 2015, the call has been raised by 100,000 b/d to 29.9 million b/d………………………………..Full Article: Source

Geopolitical tensions to affect Agri, Energy; Gold to lose resilience: Deutsche Bank

Posted on 12 August 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The current quarter witnessed the worst performance from agriculture and energy and a bright spot in industrial metals. The decline in long time yields shown by precious metals is unlikely to sustain over the medium term, indicating that Gold’s resilience is likely to fade, according to a Deutsche Bank report.
The Russian ban on European and US food is only likely to have a limited impact globally as its direct result will be domestic inflation. The real issue for agriculture will be the excessive rains in France, Germany and Ukraine and their impact on this year’s harvest. The rains have already affected Wheat prices……………………………………Full Article: Source

Broad commodity ETPs attract strong inflows in July -BlackRock

Posted on 11 August 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Diversified commodity exchange-traded products (ETPs) attracted strong inflows in July as a pick-up in economic growth in China and the United States encouraged investors to return to the unloved asset class. Investors injected $936 million into broad-basket commodity ETPs last month - the biggest inflow for this segment in three years, data from asset manager BlackRock showed.
That compared with the high watermark for the category in February 2011 of $1.5 billion in inflows, according to Ursula Marchioni, head of ETP Research EMEA at BlackRock’s iShares. Industrial metals ETPs also attracted a robust $117 million as the tide began to turn for the more cyclical commodities……………………………………..Full Article: Source

HSBC expects gold’s recent price decline to boost demand

Posted on 07 August 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Australian Perth Mint gold and silver sales declined during July this year, as per latest figures from Perth Mint. Perth Mint gold bullion coins and bars sales for July down to 25,103 ounces from sales of 39,405 in July last year. For silver, July sales totaled 577,988 ounces, down from 586,358 sold in the same month last year.
According to HSBC, Perth Mint July data show a decline in sales of gold bullion coins and bars, but lower prices lately may help revive demand. US Mint data last week showed a 49% year-on-year decline in gold coin sales to 35,500 ounces………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities May Continue Slump Into August, But Buying Opportunities Possible

Posted on 06 August 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

July was the worst month for commodities overall since May 2012, and the weak performance is likely to continue into August, market watchers said. But weaker markets can offer buying opportunities for savvy traders, they added.
The S&P GSCI lost 5.3% in July, giving up almost its entire gain for the year, and as of Monday has roughly a flat return year-to-date. According to data released by S&P Dow Jones Indices, one of the worst performers in their indexes was unleaded gasoline, which fell 8.1% in July. This is the fifth-worst July on record since 1988 and is also the worst July since July 2008. The agriculture sector lost 8.7% in the S&P GSCI index, falling to its lowest level since July 2010………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global economy to expand above trend in H2 2014: PIRA Energy

Posted on 31 July 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

NYC-based PIRA Energy Group believes that the global economy will expand at above trend pace in the second half of 2014. In the U.S., products increased and crude stock declined. In Japan, crude stocks built as imports rebounded from storm impacts. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:
World Oil market forecast: After a sub-par first half, the global economy will expand at above trend pace in the second half of 2014, led by manufacturing. First half weakness in the economy undermined global oil balances with inventories building back to year ago levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goldman Sees Nickel Rising With Palladium to Beat Soy

Posted on 30 July 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Nickel and palladium are set to outperform iron ore and soybeans as supply outlooks for commodities diverge amid a tentative acceleration in global economic growth, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The bank kept its 12-month recommendation for commodities at neutral, analysts including Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report dated yesterday. They expect the total return for the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index to be 0.1 percent in 12 months helped by positive roll yields………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia oil and gas market to 2023

Posted on 30 July 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Business Monitor International has released a new report, ‘Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report Q3 2014’, in which it indicates the view that crude production in the country will remain elevated by historical standards in 2014 and 2014.
This view is based on continued OPEC outages, a mediocre global supply picture, a continued increase of domestic consumption from the power generation and transport sectors, strong demand from the refining sector and a recovering global demand picture………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IMF cuts global growth outlook, warns of stagnation risk in rich nations

Posted on 25 July 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday chopped its 2014 forecast for global economic growth to take into account weakness early in the year in the United States and China, the world’s two biggest economies. The IMF warned that only some of the factors leading to the reduction were temporary, and richer nations in particular faced the risk of economic stagnation unless they took steps to foster sustainable growth.
In an update to its World Economic Outlook report, the IMF said the global economy should expand 3.4 percent this year, 0.3 percentage points below what it predicted in April. Growth should still speed up to 4 percent next year, it said, unchanged from what it predicted earlier this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goldman Sachs says copper to underperform other base metals

Posted on 25 July 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs said it expects copper to underperform other base metal prices over the next 12 months, citing the red metal’s heavy exposure to China’s property sector, which it expects to remain bearish this year and next.
The bank also said copper has entered a once-in-20-year supply cycle, which started in the second half of 2012 and is set to last through to 2016/17, following a decade of high capital expenditure investment in the industry, raising trend supply growth to about 4-5 percent from about 2 percent over the past decade………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goldman Raises Nickel Price Forecast as Deficit Looms Amid Ban

Posted on 25 July 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its price forecast for nickel as the market is swinging to a deficit next year following an ore-export ban in Indonesia. The bank’s 12-month estimate is now $22,000 a metric ton, up 38 percent from the previous projection of $16,000, analysts led by Max Layton wrote in a report.
They increased zinc and aluminum by at least 11 percent to $2,500 a ton and $2,100 a ton, respectively, saying iron ore, gold and copper have “the greatest downside” among the mining commodities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How the second half will be for commodities this year

Posted on 24 July 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity markets are generally perceived to be fraught with risk given the volatility commodity prices demonstrate. And 2014 has been a year of contrasts. The year began with an extremely bullish situation in the grain and oilseed markets, pushing prices to new highs. In addition, the weather premium was built into prices of fears of El Niño striking later this year. Low inventories of some commodities such as soyabeans exacerbated conditions.
Mid-year, everything has turned around. The weather has been extraordinarily good in the North American continent. The dry and hot conditions expected in South America that could have pushed the sugar prices higher has not turned out as bad as feared. Rainfall from the Indian monsoon isn’t great, but it isn’t that bad either. Overall, the weather premium has now been taken out of the market. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodity prices will dip as super-cycle ends: Goldman Sachs

Posted on 18 July 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities from iron ore to copper and Brent crude will drop over the next five years as global supplies climb, according to Goldman Sachs Group, which highlighted oil’s recent losses as a sign of increased output. There will be substantial declines in some metals, energy and bulk commodities, analysts including Chief Currency Strategist Robin Brooks wrote in a report.
The period of continued year-on-year price rises for most commodities is over, they said in the report, which was dated July 15. Banks from Citigroup to Deutsche Bank AG have called an end to the commodities super-cycle, when China’s surging demand combined with supply constraints to more than double prices in the 12 years through 2010………………………………………..Full Article: Source

banner
October 2014
S M T W T F S
« Sep    
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031