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Commodities struggle and oil declined - ANZ

Posted on 31 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Analysts at ANZ explained that commodities struggled as a stronger USD and weak fundamentals saw investor appetite wane. Oil declined as doubts emerged that producers will agree to a production freeze.
“The UAE oil minister hinted that the oil market should achieve stability soon. According to reports on Bloomberg, Iran also reiterated it wouldn’t participate in a freeze in output until it regained its share of OPEC production seen three years ago. The physical iron ore market remained quiet, with prices relatively unchanged……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil executives say crude market volatility is here to stay

Posted on 31 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude markets will continue to be plagued by volatility in the short and medium term after suffering the biggest downturn in a generation over the past two years, according to oil-company executives gathering for one of the industry’s biggest conferences in Norway.
Oil declined on Monday amid doubts producers will agree on a deal to stabilise the market when suppliers meet next month for informal talks. Iran’s plan to continue boosting crude output until it regains its pre-sanctions Opec market share is dimming prospects of collective action, according to Patrick Allman-Ward, the chief executive of Sharjah’s Dana Gas, at the ONS conference in Stavangar, Norway……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Southeast Asia to lead charge in commodities as China’s economy slows

Posted on 30 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China may be slowing, but a commodities rebound is under way and the world’s biggest miner knows where the next growth story is building - emerging economies in Southeast Asia.
Combined gross domestic product in the ASEAN-5 nations - Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam - will rise about a third to US$3 trillion in the five years to 2020, fueling commodities-intensive infrastructure projects. Momentum like this across Asia will help maintain and increase commodity demand, BHP Billiton Ltd.’s Chief Executive Officer Andrew Mackenzie said this week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold ‘should be $US1,700 an ounce’: Deutsche Bank

Posted on 30 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has seen a sell-off in recent days, heading for the longest run of declines since May, trading at $US1319 an ounce. Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole over the weekend contributed to gold’s latest decline.
Yellen said the case for a US rate increase has strengthened, without specifying whether we would see one in September or ­December. The odds of a September rate rise have risen to 42 per cent, from 22 per cent a week ago, and the odds of a December rate hike soared to 65 per cent, according to Bloomberg………………………………………..Full Article: Source

1 Fact and 2 Forecasts for the Global Economy

Posted on 30 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global economic growth is slowing. The world economy continues to expand, but at a smaller growth rate than in recent years. The outlook isn’t much better. In fact, the IMF keeps revising its forecast downwards, as do the forecasters tracked by FocusEconomics.
It turns out that the expected growth isn’t much off than the historical average. Advanced economies are will not accelerate from current tepid growth, but emerging economies will gradually improve………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why you should pay attention to liquidity

Posted on 29 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

If you are like most individuals, you would prefer investments that are highly liquid. The only exception, of course, is your real estate investment. Then, how concerned should you be about investment liquidity? Liquidity refers to your ability to easily sell your investments at the last traded price. The importance of investment liquidity can be best understood in the context of a core satellite portfolio.
In this framework, your core portfolio is geared towards achieving your life goals such as your retirement expenses and funding your child’s college education. Your satellite portfolio is created to take advantage of short-term fluctuations in the financial markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global Economy Unruffled by Brexit but Threats Loom

Posted on 26 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Safe havens such as gold and the yen have given up most of their post-Brexit gains, while equity markets have rallied - but are there other threats around the corner? Sentiment in financial markets has soured since April, especially after the Brexit referendum. Most analysts have revised down their growth expectations for 2016 and 2017 and cut their inflation forecasts.
Monetary policy, accordingly, is now expected to remain accommodative for longer than previously thought. The odds of a recession in the medium term are now higher, in the eyes of the market, although most analysts do not expect one this year. The experience, however, from previous episodes of volatility post-2008 suggests that the pessimism might be overdone………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World economy still sputtering, trade figures show

Posted on 25 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The amount of goods traded globally fell sharply in the second quarter after a flat performance in the first few months of 2016, highlighting a major challenge for leaders around the world grappling with soft growth.
The volume of merchandise traded globally dropped by 0.8% from April to June following no change in the first quarter, according to the CPB World Trade Monitor produced by the Netherlands. Weaker trade patterns reflect fresh economic struggles in various countries and less demand among consumers, the main drivers of growth………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities down in July

Posted on 24 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index posted its first monthly loss in July since February. The index was down 1% from June as metals strength (+4.6% month over month) was overwhelmed by weakness in the Oil & Gas (-4.7%) and Agriculture (-5.2%) segments.
Virtually all base and precious metals saw gains last month. Nickel prices gained 15% over June thanks to nickel ore supply concerns in the Philippines, while zinc prices gained 9% due to supply constraints. Copper rose 5%, “but the outlook remains lackluster given the absence of any sustained supply response and weaker global demand prospects,” says a Scotiabank report on the commodity index………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global economic outlook “stable, but not secure”: PIMCO

Posted on 23 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The future over the next three to five years, as seen through the lens of PIMCO’s Secular Outlook, is stable but not secure. “[W]hile we do not see a global economy heading toward recession, we also do not see readily available means to stimulate aggregate demand and drive accelerated growth,” the piece reads.
Citing the most immediate and prevalent dynamic – diminishing returns from central banks’ monetary policy and probable inadequacy of fiscal policy to fill the gaps – the outlook predicts volatility that will leave investors vulnerable to both negative and positive shocks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bullish chart patterns across many commodity-related equities have triggered a move by active traders

Posted on 19 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

According to Investopedia, the technical data available on commodities and mining companies is prompting traders to dive into mining commodity markets. “Bullish chart patterns across many commodity-related equities have triggered a move by active traders toward increasing exposure to physical assets and the companies that explore, develop and produce mineral properties,” wrote trade-focused journalist Casey Murphy this week.
Murphy singled out Newmont Mining, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto as top picks based on charting data. “The [Newmont share] price has found support near a major trendline on each attempted pullback so far in 2016,” the report stated………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Global Economy has a Darker Side

Posted on 19 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A Paris prosecutor recently called for the former CEO and six senior managers of telecoms provider, France Télécom, to face criminal charges for workplace harassment. The recommendation followed a lengthy inquiry into the suicides of a number of employees at the company between 2005 and 2009.
The prosecutor accused management of deliberately “destabilising” employees and creating a “stressful professional climate” through a company-wide strategy of “harcèlement moral” – psychological bullying………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Crude prices may stay near $50/bbl on supply worries: JP Morgan

Posted on 18 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Ian Hui of JP Morgan Asset Management says there is talk of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) considering a production freeze which might weigh down crude supply numbers. Expectations of changes in supply are more likely to be driving crude prices higher right now feels Ian Hui of JP Morgan Asset Management.
Hui says there is talk of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) considering a production freeze which might improve oil balances and weigh down supply numbers. Hui expects crude prices to float around the USD 50 per barrel mark by the end of the calendar year. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

When will China economy bottom out?

Posted on 18 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China’s economic growth has started to slow down markedly since 2012. And the long-awaited bottoming sign has proved illusive over the past few years. According to a new forecast made in a China Daily article, the growth slowdown could come to an end in one or two years. But it remains to be seen if the prediction proves correct.
It’s widely believed that China’s slowdown since 2012 is mainly a result of the aftershock of the 2008 global financial crisis and the backfiring of the nation’s policy response. Beijing promptly rolled out a 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package back then to counter the crisis. The scheme appeared to work as GDP growth reached 9.6 percent, 9.1 percent, 10.4 percent and 9.3 percent respectively between 2008 and 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goldman Sachs: Look at exports and commodities

Posted on 17 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Those looking for proof of China’s economic rebalancing act should stay clear of macro data and focus instead on micro evidence, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank released a research note Tuesday, detailing how changes in the composition of exports and commodity consumption are the most useful metrics to evaluate how Beijing is moving toward a consumption-led model, the so-called new economy.
“While the exports share of gross domestic product (GDP) in China today is similar to the level seen in the mid-1990s, the types of goods exported by China have changed significantly” Goldman explained………………………………………..Full Article: Source

TD Securities: Safe-Haven Interest In Gold To Continue

Posted on 17 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

TD Securities looks for any downward correction in gold to be contained and for safe-haven buying to continue. The metal has risen sharply this year but has been range-bound lately, with market worries about potential Federal Reserve rate hikes returning, causing some funds to liquidate positions, TDS says.
“Still, the risk of an equity correction and negative yields for some $13 trillion worth of fixed-income assets should see safe-haven interest in gold continue,” TDS says. “This should make any correction well contained………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is the wild ride in commodities over?

Posted on 15 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Congratulations if you called the path of commodity prices this year. You’re probably also among the 0.0001pc of people who guessed Leicester City would win the Premier League. And of course, you predicted Brexit.
In a topsy-turvy world, metals have shown surprising strength. After cratering in 2015, a basket of major commodities has soared in price this year, from the remarkable 36pc climb of iron ore, to the stellar performance of precious metals, with gold and silver up 25pc and 43pc respectively. Zinc, a mineral used to galvanise other metals to stop them rusting, has chalked up a 41pc rise………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities may see rally of up to six months at the most

Posted on 15 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

According to Barclays, inflows into commodities this year has been the most since 2009, with total assets under management rising to US$235 billion (HK$1.83 trillion) from US$161 billion at the end of 2015.
That rising trend may last three years if one looks back to 2009, so the sector is worth looking at in the next six months. Of course, this plunge is not fueled by an improving economy or real demand. With quantitative easing, people naturally seek out investment opportunities, especially with commodities at low levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

RBC adds $200 to its gold price forecast

Posted on 15 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has been treading water above the $1,340 an ounce level recently, coming off two-year highs hit earlier in August. Year to date the metal has gained almost 26% or more than $280 an ounce. It’s been gold best first half run since 1980 when the price hit an all-time high on an inflation adjust basis.
The rally has surprised many analysts and at the start of the year the vast majority of investment and institutional analysts predicted gold would dip below $1,000 during the course of the year and average below last year’s uninspiring $1,160 an ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Credit Suisse Reiterates Forecast Of $1,475 Gold In 4Q

Posted on 15 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Credit Suisse has reiterated its late-June outlook that gold will rise to $1,475 in the fourth quarter. The view was included in a research note citing highlights from the World Gold Council’s report this week on quarterly demand trends, which showed that second-quarter demand rose from a year ago.
Credit Suisse says its outlook is “primarily due to continued investment demand through ETF (exchange-traded-fund) purchases and bar/coin hoarding on prolonged macro uncertainty and negative real interest rates – (with) 39% of sovereign debt traded with a negative rate on July 27th — along with our view for declining mine supply.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Maybe India can ignite new commodity supercycle

Posted on 12 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

According to the World Bank, together the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) consume 40% of global energy and food commodities and over half of the world’s metals. China alone accounted for virtually all the increase in metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc) consumption of the BRICs since 1994.
India’s consumption of metals almost doubled over the past 20 years. But it’s only taken the sub-continent’s global share from 1.9% to 3.4% according to the report. By contrast, China’s share of worldwide metals consumption went from 6.4% in 1990 to 43.9% last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA: ‘Massive’ stock overhang is capping oil price

Posted on 12 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency on Thursday trimmed its forecast for the rise in global oil demand next year on a dimmer economic outlook, warning that the “massive” stock overhang is keeping a lid on crude oil prices.
In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the Paris-based energy watchdog said it expects global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million barrels a day in 2017, a decrease of 100,000 barrels a day compared with last month’s forecast and down by 200,000 barrels a day from this year. “Some momentum will be lost in 2017 due to downgrades in economic growth projections, but the forecast expansion of 1.2 million b/d is still above-trend,” it said in the report………………………………………..Full Article: Source

WGC Report Shows H1 Gold Demand Highest On Record

Posted on 12 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The latest Gold Demand Trends report from the World Gold Council (WGC) is now out with data supplied by London-based precious metals research consultancy, Metals Focus. It shows the highest level of H1 gold demand on record, largely on the back of investment demand - particularly in gold ETFs, which absorbed 580 tonnes in the first half of the year.
Overall, this countered a fall in net central bank gold sales and falling consumer demand in the world’s two biggest countries for this in India and China………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World economic outlook dips to 3-year low

Posted on 12 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Confidence in the global economic situation and outlook has fallen to a three-year low, according to the latest survey of expert opinion by an influential German think tank.
The Munich-based Ifo Institute said that its World Economic Survey fell by 4.5 index points to 86.0 in the third quarter, dipping to its lowest level in over three years at ten index points below its long-term average. The latest results published on Thursday signaled a reversal in confidence seen from respondents in the last quarter, Ifo said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil markets are falling into a bear trap and it’s way overdone: RBC

Posted on 11 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil markets have been prone to over-bearishness of late with fears over supply returning to the market largely “overdone,” according to the latest oil market analysis by RBC Capital Markets.
Oil prices are oscillating on hopes that a rebalancing is taking place in the markets and fears of a continuing global oversupply – and the potential for more oil to return to the market from the likes of Libya and Nigeria, producers which have seen supply disruptions. Helima Croft, RBC’s head of commodity strategy and commodity strategists Michael Tran and Christopher Louney said in a note on Wednesday that market caution was overdone, however………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC Says Weak Oil Demand Is Here to Stay

Posted on 11 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Weakness in global oil markets, which has dragged prices to a three-month low, may persist as demand slows seasonally and fuel inventories remain abundant, OPEC predicted.
There are “lingering concerns” that U.S. and European refiners may reduce processing rates as profits fade amid a continuing “overhang” of crude and refined fuels, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report. Gasoline consumption will taper off in the U.S. with the end of the summer-vacation driving season, it said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Emerging-Market Rally Gains Momentum From Improving China Data

Posted on 10 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Emerging-market stocks and currencies advanced for a fourth day as narrowing Chinese factory deflation signaled the world’s second-largest economy is stabilizing. Indian bonds rallied after the central bank said it’s keeping up its accommodative policy.
Raw-material producers touched a 13-month high, paced by South Korean steelmaker Posco, while stocks in the Philippines rose for a second day. Data out of China, the biggest trading partner for both nations, showed the producer-price index registered its slowest decline in two years. Turkish stocks rallied as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Russia to rebuild relations with President Vladimir Putin………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Amundi: Downbeat optimism about the world economy

Posted on 10 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Lack of growth means stock market valuations are justified and investors should return to EM. One of only a handful of Frenchmen ever to take responsibility for $1tn of other people’s money, Pascal Blanque offers a sort of downbeat optimism about the world economy. Expansion, yes, just less than we are used to.
“Global growth is in the region of 3 per cent, fine. But the structure of global growth has changed, meaning that the contribution of manufacturing and global trade is down,” says the chief investment officer for Amundi, a combination of Crédit Agricole’s and Société Générale’s fund businesses which became Europe’s largest asset manager when it listed in Paris last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gartman Still Bullish Despite Lower Gold Price Post-Jobs

Posted on 10 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

One veteran gold investor remains bullish on the metal, especially in non-U.S. dollar terms, even though gold is still trading lower since jobs data Friday turned sentiment toward the U.S. economy more positive. Dennis Gartman of the popular newsletter The Gartman Letter said the employment data was “demonstrably less strong” than it appeared to be.
“Let’s say this was a strong number, much stronger than people anticipated, but there are some circumstances incumbent in it that reduce that number or reduce the bullishness that most people want to put into it,” he noted………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Barclays Channels ‘New Deal’ Lesson in ‘Shaky’ Commodities World

Posted on 09 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The outlook for most commodities remains shaky even after investors poured more than $50 billion into raw materials this year, and it may take fiscal stimulus to get things going, not more central bank easing, according to Barclays Plc, which reached for the history books to make a case.
Additional monetary easing by the central banks is unlikely to support the outlook for global commodity demand or prices over the medium term, though more fiscal stimulus might, Kevin Norrish, managing director for commodities research, said in a weekly report on Monday. As possible evidence, the bank cited the impact of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “New Deal” policies to fight the 1930s Depression………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Decreased in July as Supply Concerns Ease

Posted on 09 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities decreased in July, largely driven by changing supply fundamentals, according to Credit Suisse Asset Management. The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return performance was negative for the month, with 15 out of 22 Index constituents posting losses.
Energy was the worst performing sector, down 10.69%, with all sector commodities posting losses. WTI Crude Oil declined the most amid increased US production expectations. Brent Crude Oil also decreased as global excess supplies persisted. Precious Metals was the best performing sector, up 4.29%. Silver increased the most due to weaker-than-expected US economic data and after the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. (Press Release)……………………………………….Full Article: Source

US EIA chief shares short-term outlook for oil market: Fuel for Thought

Posted on 09 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The 100th episode of the weekly S&P Global Platts Capitol Crude podcast, which aims to demystify the complex world of US oil policy, featured Adam Sieminski, head of the US Energy Information Administration.
The forecast in the STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) is probably pretty good. And what it says is we’re expecting the markets to begin to rebalance as we get towards the end of this year and as we get into the middle of 2017 we should see prices beginning to come back up again………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Fatigue Kicks In After Biggest Investment in 7 Years

Posted on 08 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors are growing tired of commodities after plowing in the most money in seven years. Inflows into raw materials slowed to $2.4 billion in July, the least since money was withdrawn in December, Barclays Plc said in a report Thursday. The smaller amount — not unusual for this time of year — took investment to almost $51 billion so far in 2016, the most since 2009.
There’s a good chance raw-materials interest has peaked, as it has largely been driven by investors seeking a haven in precious metals, signaling wider concerns about commodity fundamentals, Barclays said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investors pouring money into commodities at the fastest rate since 2009

Posted on 08 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Largely driven by a fever for gold, demand for commodities this year is the strongest it has been since the financial crisis, according to Barclays. Total commodity inflows year to date stands at $50.8 billion, marking the strongest January-to-July performance since 2009 — which was only $1 billion higher, said Barclays in an Aug. 4 research note written by Kevin Norrish, head of commodities research.
Those inflows, along with some hefty price gains, have pushed commodity assets under management to $235 billion, a sizable leap from $161 billion seen at the end of 2015………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices to stabilise at $55/barrel in 2017, says QNB

Posted on 08 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Qatar National Bank (QNB) has revised its oil price forecast to average $44.7 per barrel in 2016, up from its previous forecast of $40.8/barrel, state news agency QNA said. In its monthly market update, QNB said rebalancing in the oil market has been “stronger than expected”.
Continued rebalancing is expected to lift prices to an average of $55/barrel in 2017, up from a previous forecast of $51.3 in 2017 and $57.9 in 2018. The revised forecast is based on rising demand growth – the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global demand growth to reach 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up from a previous forecast of 1.2 million bpd, QNB said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bank of England action boosts commodities

Posted on 05 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Bank of England’s decision to slash its key interest rate in half to a historic low boosted commodities Thursday as investors moved away from safe havens. “I think the highlight today is that even though global equities are more or less flat for the day, we’re seeing a pick up in risk appetite and the commodities space is doing well this morning,” said Scott Smith, regional director of hedging solutions at Cambridge Global Payments.
“A lot of that is based on the decision by the Bank of England.” The British central bank decided to cut its key rate from 0.5 to 0.25, its first rate cut in seven years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World’s economic outlook more uncertain after Brexit vote: ECB

Posted on 05 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The global economic outlook has become more uncertain after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the European Central Bank said on Thursday, reaffirming its readiness to act if needed to support euro zone inflation.
After a spike in volatility in the wake of the June 23 referendum, financial markets have returned to a relative calm, but economists have warned the full economic effect of the Brexit vote may have yet to materialize. “Financial market volatility following the referendum in the United Kingdom on EU membership has been short-lived,” the ECB said in its regular economic bulletin………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why is oil market rebalancing taking so long? Kemp

Posted on 04 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Rebalancing the oil market is proving a long and frustrating process because the oil-exporting countries hit hardest by the slump were the themselves some of the fastest growing oil consumers before prices tumbled.
As oil revenues have shrivelled, their economies have slowed or gone into recession, removing one of the most dynamic drivers of oil demand, and leaving the rest of the world economy to fill the gap. The slowdown in demand from oil-exporting countries has worsened the oversupply situation and prolonged the market rebalancing process……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Analysts look beyond bear market, forecast average oil price of $57 in 2017

Posted on 03 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Despite closing in a bear market Monday, analysts are looking beyond oil’s current slide for a rebound next year. Crude has plunged by more than a fifth in less than two months as refineries created a glut of gasoline while failing to eliminate excess supply of crude. That wrecked refining margins and hurt the earnings of Exxon Mobil Corp., BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc.
Yet, global oil prices will average $57 a barrel in 2017, according to the median of at least 20 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Progress will be slow. The crude glut will take a long time to dissipate, meaning only gradual price gains, said Michael Hsueh, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG………………………………………..Full Article: Source

With a global economy in serious trouble, something’s got to give

Posted on 02 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Economic growth is faltering and increasingly desperate measures by central banks are proving ineffective. Meanwhile, both stocks and bonds are hitting record highs. It’s an each way bet on boom and bust and it’s unheard of.
John Maynard Keynes reputedly once said that markets could remain irrational longer than you could remain solvent after losing a substantial amount of dosh on a trade gone wrong. While there’s no direct evidence of him ever mouthing those exact words, he was pretty clued up on just how irrational the world and markets could be………………………………………..Full Article: Source

HSBC Positive On Silver Going Into 2017

Posted on 01 August 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver is expected to stay “well-bid” in the second half of 2016, according to an HSBC Global Commodities report. Looking at supply and demand economics, one side of the equation is anticipated to remain consistent while the other is expected to rise. The positive HSBC comments come over three months after BAML made similar comments on the silver price breakout being real.
After taking a breather much of July, muting the performance of momentum models that had been long silver and gold, the metal has recently been on a continuation pattern and the trend is once again moving higher………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Bank sees upward commodity trend

Posted on 29 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The World Bank has revised upwards its forecast for many commodity prices in the second half of 2016. Some, it says, might end the year with a lower average price than in 2015 but on the whole, prices have already seen a bottom. It has a positive outlook for energy, non-energy, crude oil and gold; that for fertiliser and metal & minerals is still negative.
Its Commodity Markets outlook for July, a quarterly publication, shows most commodity price indices rebounded in the year’s second quarter (Q2) from January lows, on improved market sentiment and tapering supply………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goldman Sachs says oil market fundamentals ‘fragile,’ oil prices to stay flat until mid-2017

Posted on 29 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil prices will remain in the $45-$50-a-barrel range till mid-2017, with little to change the global supply and demand situation, Goldman Sachs said. The investment bank’s analysts ran through the many scenarios that would keep the oil market in stasis.
“The improvement in oil fundamentals remains fragile and continues to feature large offsetting forces: wildfires have helped offset surprisingly strong Iran production, slowing demand growth in India and China in 2H16 will help offset production issues in Nigeria and Venezuela and finally product builds have offset crude draws,” they said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Metals M&A fall to lowest in two years – PwC report

Posted on 29 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The metals deals market remained sluggish in the second quarter of 2016, with mergers and acquisitions activity down to its lowest level in two years, according to a report by PwC. While some metals commodity prices rebounded, metals prices, global demand, and production all generally remained low during the quarter, and companies continued to be challenged by global economic uncertainty and volatility, the report noted.
However, PwC said it was cautiously optimistic that improvement will be seen in the second half of 2016. “Growth in US gross domestic product and continued improvement in relevant end-use sectors like automotive, aerospace, and construction are expected to begin to drive increased demand for metals, and in turn, increased production and stabilisation in the industry,” PwC said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

BNP Paribas Raises Gold-Price Forecast But Sees New Downtrend

Posted on 28 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

There is at least one more bear in the woods as analysts at BNP Paribas increase their gold -price forecast for 2016 but look for the price to trend lower through the rest of the year and 2017.
In an email response to Kitco News regarding the bank’s new forecast released late last week, Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy, said the strong performance during the first half of the year forced them to raise their base prices for 2016 and 2017, but “the path of least resistance is lower and not higher.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

World Bank Raises Oil Prices Forecast to $43

Posted on 27 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $43 per barrel from $41 per barrel due to supply outages and robust demand in the second quarter. Oil prices jumped 37 percent in the second quarter of 2016 due to disruptions to supply, particularly wildfires in Canada and sabotage of oil infrastructure in Nigeria. The revised forecast appears in the World Bank’s latest Commodities Markets Outlook and takes into account a recent softening of demand and the recovery of some disrupted supply.
“We expect slightly higher oil prices for the second half of 2016 as oil market oversupply diminishes,” said John Baffes, Senior Economist and lead author of the Commodities Markets Outlook. “However, inventories remain very large and will take some time to be drawn down.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

The Global Economy Is Slow… But Steadier Than Ever

Posted on 22 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s not difficult to come to the conclusion that, economically speaking, we are living in very turbulent times. China’s great slowdown. Europe’s persistent woes. Brexit. Yet on a bigger scale, all that’s just noise blocking the signal that the global economy is less volatile than any period in the modern era. This is the conclusion of new research led by David Hensley, director of global economics at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York.
Hensley’s work measures standard deviations of quarterly, annualized gross domestic product growth for major developed and emerging markets, plus a selection of regions. The sample compares the middle of the business cycle leading up to the Great Recession with the middle of the next cycle, i.e 2013 to 2016………………………………………..Full Article: Source

EIU Global Forecasts Report 2016: Commodities forecasts

Posted on 21 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Economist Intelligence Unit have produced their first global forecast since the Brexit vote. Please find below, their forecasts for commodities until 2020. EIU Report: As in the case of oil, we expect the price of industrial and agricultural commodities to stage only a partial recovery in 2016-20.
After years of oversupply and falling prices, markets are finally moving back towards balance, with our aggregate commodity price index registering its first quarter-on-quarter rise in two years in April-June. Despite this upward trend, however, prices of most commodities remain well below year-earlier levels. Furthermore, rebalancing is taking place at varying speed………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices set to peak sooner than expected on supply shortage, Barclays says

Posted on 21 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Barclays is the latest bank to raise its forecast for medium-term oil prices, saying it now expects them to peak sooner than expected as a supply shortage develops.
The bank said Tuesday it now sees oil prices averaging $85 a barrel by 2019, slightly higher than its prior view and one year ahead of its last assessment in October. Barclays previously saw Brent at $83 a barrel in 2019 and $85 a barrel in 2020. It now expects the oil price to peak in 2019 before declining to $78 in 2021………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IMF cuts UK and global growth forecasts following Brexit vote - as it happened

Posted on 20 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

And here’s another view on the IMF’s latest pronouncements, from Capital Economics. The research company’s Michael Pearce said: After spending the run-up to the UK’s EU referendum warning that Brexit would cause “severe regional and global damage”, the IMF all but admitted on Tuesday that it had been bluffing, forecasting that the impact would be largely benign after all.
The IMF downgraded its forecasts for global growth this year and next by just 0.1 percentage point, to 3.1% and 3.4% respectively. The biggest downward revision was of course to the UK, which the Fund now expects to grow by just 1.3% in 2017, almost a percentage point slower than its previous forecast………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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