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Gold and Oil: Who’s going to bottom out soon?

Posted on 07 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In recent days, I have encountered a few questions related to gold and whether it would be right time to invest. In November, we had expected an uptrend in gold in the beginning of New Year and now the break of $1200 resistance levels, analysts may be watching for the next breach at $1230, 1250 upto $1280 per ounce levels.
Time and again I have told that gold price in India is basically a function of global spot prices plus import duties and local taxes. Gold demand has been fairly inelastic in the country with higher prices only raising the urge to buy more so that they don’t end up buying at still higher prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

If gold’s going to be a winner in 2015 then silver will be the real champion as financial markets implode

Posted on 07 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold and silver prices have jumped since the start of 2015 as safe haven and dollar diversification plays. But this will be nothing compared to the upside gain to come as financial markets really lose it. Precious metal investors know from long experience that when gold prices go up silver does even better and vice-versa.
Silver is in a tighter market than gold and with a smaller available supply then a rise in demand has a disproportionate impact on its price. It’s also an alternative to gold as prices rise because it is cheaper. The gold-to-silver price ratio is historically very high at the moment at 75, so silver prices have plenty of room to outperform and close up this gap………………………………………..Full Article: Source

2 Reasons Why Silver Will Rebound in 2015

Posted on 06 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

According to the World Silver Institute 2013 silver demand outstripped supply and the institute expects this to occur again for 2014 and 2015. This is because of growing demand for using silver in a range of high-tech industrial applications including photo-voltaic cells, electronic touch screens, light emitting diodes, and interposers for the stacking of semi-conductor chips.
Over the last 100 years, the gold-to-silver ratio has on average required 47 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold. But since the peak of the gold bull market in 2011 where only 44 ounces of silver was required, the ratio has widened to now need 75 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity bear market over: Boockvar

Posted on 05 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Be a contrarian this year; buy commodities and don’t pile on to the bullishness of the U.S. dollar, Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, told CNBC. That’s because he believes the commodity bear market that started in September 2011 when gold topped out is coming to an end.
“Oil is the last major commodity to really crash which tells me this is the end of the commodity bear market. Oil will be the last one to recover but gold, agriculture [and] industrial metals will be the first to recover,” Boockvar, also a CNBC contributor, said……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Known unknowns dim global market outlook

Posted on 05 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

When you see 2015 financial and commodity markets forecasts that list 10 reasons why those markets will collapse this year, or bring in talk of the Black Death as the most pertinent portent for what is now occurring, it’s probably wise to resist the temptation to stick one’s neck out.
So let us remain content with listing all the known unknowns. First, though, that Black Death thing: with the news that yields on German bonds actually went negative last week, and eurozone governments can now borrow at less that 1 per cent, one commentator argued nothing of this low yield/low interest rate magnitude had been experienced since the 14th century, when England defaulted on Italian loans and the Black Death carried off at least 25 million people………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity supply, global growth outlook & US dollar to continue to play dominant roles in 2015

Posted on 02 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the third quarter of 2014, commodity price weakness was one of the most dominant themes in financial markets. Most commodities we track were not able to withstand this strong down trend. Oil prices dropped because of ample supply, political factors, concerns about the demand outlook and a higher US dollar. Precious metals were also hit hard. Silver was the worst performing precious metal, while gold was the best performing one, while still losing 8%.
Base metals, except nickel, did relatively well, because of a lower sensitivity to the US dollar and a less substantial supply overhang. Commodity supply, the global growth outlook and the US dollar, will continue to play dominant roles in the first quarter of 2015. Oversupply will remain a challenge for energy markets. This will continue to depress oil prices in 2015, in our view………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold retains position as safe haven for 2015

Posted on 02 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The metal is the only store of wealth that has a proven track record over thousands of years, and experts predict prices to remain at $1,200 in the year ahead. Gold has retained its place as a safe-haven investment in 2014, despite the rising strength of the US dollar and turmoil elsewhere in commodity markets.
The price has remained stable and what’s more, experts believe that the long- term outlook for the precious metal is well supported over the coming year.. The price of gold looks set to end the year almost unchanged on 12 months, closing last week at around $1,175 (£755) an ounce after starting the year at $1,205. Fears of a crash in the price were overblown………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gartman: If you buy one thing in 2015, buy this

Posted on 02 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s hard out there being a commodities king this year. Oil got crushed. Copper was obliterated. And soybeans got mashed. But Dennis Gartman has his eye on one commodity that met a particularly cruel fate in 2014: Gold
Despite bullion being just pennies away from posting its first back-to-back yearly loss since 1997, the self-proclaimed commodities king and author of the eponymous Gartman Letter told CNBC.com’s “Futures Now” on Tuesday that he sees gold enjoying a solid 2015. “My better trade for the year will be the same trade that has been the better one for this year and the better one for the previous year, which is to be an owner of gold,” said Gartman………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Credit Suisse: Gold Looks Likely to Fall in 2015

Posted on 23 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Credit Suisse is bearish on gold headed into the new year, and one of the firm’s trading strategists recommends options on the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) to capture additional prices declines.
Victor Lin on Credit Suisse’s trading strategy team recently noted the firm’s bearish outlook on gold in 2015. Their dim view on the yellow metal is premised in part on the potential for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which could makes holding gold less appealing relative to bonds:……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Why Opec is increasingly irrelevant

Posted on 18 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, expects the oil market ‘to stabilise itself eventually’. When the Saudis, the leaders of Opec, decided at the cartel’s recent meeting in Vienna to maintain their oil production levels, it sent a strong message to the world: the market, not Opec, should decide oil prices. As a result, oil prices dropped, falling below $60 per barrel this week.
This is a big change for the world’s largest oil exporter, which has in the past attempted to manage the global oil markets by altering production levels. The Kingdom essentially decided to pursue a policy that not only preserves its market share in the long term but also heralds the coming end of Opec as a united organisation that still has a collective say in export decisions…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Silver Prices to Outperform Gold in 2015

Posted on 18 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

I know it’s a bold prediction: silver prices are going to surprise investors and provide them with better returns than gold bullion. I say this because both the fundamental and the technical pictures for silver continue to improve. The supply of silver produced continues to dwindle, while demand for the metal is robust. This is the perfect recipe for higher prices.
In Canada, a major gold-producing country, in the first nine months of 2014, mines produced 373,828 kilograms of silver. In the first nine months of 2013, Canadian miners produced 510,390 kilograms of silver—representing a 26% decline in silver mine production…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Get Ready for Gold Prices to Break Out

Posted on 17 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is unquestionably the most frustrating trade I’ve ever tried to make in 20 years of investing. The main problem is there is simply no way to predict gold prices or even attempt to ballpark where gold prices might go in any given time period. Gold prices are subject to so many crosscurrents that trying to trade the yellow metal has always flummoxed me.
About the only thing you can count on with respect to gold prices are a few indicators that might give you a leg up in trading. We may have confirmation of direction from those indicators in the next few days. You just need to decide if you want to go long, go short or stay away from gold altogether. I suspect that whichever way gold breaks, it is likely to be for a significant time period……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold and Silver Outlook for 2015

Posted on 17 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the past 12 months, gold has traded as high as around $1,380 an ounce and as low as about $1,140 an ounce. From its starting point at around $1,220, though, the change is just $10 an ounce at the current price around $1,210. Since June, when oil prices started falling and the dollar began strengthening, gold has lost about $100 an ounce.
Silver is down about $5 an ounce, from around $21 to around $16 since June. From their June prices, then, gold is down about 8% and silver is down about 25%. The story is significantly different for gold and silver mining companies. Rising mining costs and low prices have plagued the miners for more than two years, and share prices have dropped by 50% to 75% over that time for the firms we are looking at now…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Predicting The Oil Price: Smart Vs Lucky

Posted on 16 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Paul Krugman made the point recently that the only stock market forecasters who correctly predicted a market drop were those who always predicted falling markets. This is known as the ‘stopped watch’ approach to forecasting: constantly make one prediction and eventually the market will move in that direction.
Especially for oil prices, which are highly variable, this works wonders to the point where the great Adam Sieminski often joked that you should predict the price or the date, but not both………………………………………Full Article: Source

How Will Fed Meeting Impact Gold Price?

Posted on 16 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The US Federal Reserve will hold 2014’s last policy meeting on 17-18 Dec. How the meeting will impact the gold market? “The gold market will point upward in the short term if the Fed announces to leave its rate unchanged at lows for a considerable period at its final policy meeting of 2014,” an analyst from Jinyou Futures said.
The recent rally in gold price was due mainly to weakness in global equities markets, growing risk aversion sentiment, and short covering, the analyst added. “The gold price, however, will fall in the medium and long term due to pressures from market expectations towards the hike in US’s interest rate,” the analyst predicted………………………………………Full Article: Source

Why Conventional Commodity Indexes Will Likely Disappoint

Posted on 12 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

I hate to pile on commodities funds, already beaten down by years of underperformance and outflows, but most are terribly flawed in both construction and premise. The static, long-only commodity futures indexes do not capture the biggest sources of profits that accrue to investors in commodity futures.
In fact, unlike with stocks and bonds, a long-only position in commodity futures is not always expected to provide an excess return above the risk-free rate. To understand why, it helps to think of the commodities futures market as an insurance market, where hedgers and speculators trade risks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC: RIP? Not So Fast

Posted on 12 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Many observers have proclaimed the death of OPEC. This seems to be a premature judgment, and may reflect a misunderstanding of oligopolistic practices. The decision not to cut production is not a sign of the OPEC impotence as has been argued. If OPEC would have cut output, and lost market share as a consequence, would OPEC’s future really been brighter?
OPEC is an unusual oligopoly. Its market share is less than 50%. There are important political and economic differences between members. Discrepancies of size, oil reserves and population are significant. Nevertheless, it has survived for nearly 55 years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What Does 2015 Hold for Commodities?

Posted on 11 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Year to date all the main commodity sub-sectors have lost money and the main index was down another 6% in November led by a very weak energy sector that collapsed by 13%. This continued a long, difficult period since the commodity index peaked in April 2011 since when it has fallen 27%. Can there be much further downside given that crude oil is down 45%, gold 38% and copper 35% from their 2011 highs, while corn and wheat have collapsed 58% and 35% respectively from 2012 highs?
All recent news headlines have unsurprisingly centred on the energy market, particularly crude oil. Having traded in a sideways pattern for much of the past four years – Brent mostly trended between $100-120 per barrel – oil prices have been in virtual freefall since mid-year as global demand subsided and supply continued to increase thereby raising inventory levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Here’s What Investors Are Freaked Out About For 2015

Posted on 11 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global fund managers are most concerned about deflation in the coming year, according to Bank of America Merill Lynch. While the collapse of commodities caused by a rapid decline in China’s economy was investors’ biggest concern last December, deflation wasn’t explicitly on their radar.
“Interestingly, at the end of 2013, investors had started to become uneasy about the risk of inflation,” wrote BAML’s Savita Subramanian in the firm’s US Equity Strategy Year Ahead for 2015………………………………………..Full Article: Source

7 Questions Gold Bears Must Answer

Posted on 11 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A glance at any gold price chart reveals the severity of the bear mauling it has endured over the last three years. More alarming, even for die-hard gold investors, is that some of the fundamental drivers that would normally push gold higher, like a weak US dollar, have reversed.
Throw in a correction-defying Wall Street stock market and the never-ending rain of disdain for gold from the mainstream and it may seem that there’s no reason to buy gold; the bear is here to stay. If so, then I have a question. Actually, a whole bunch of questions. If we’re in a bear market, then………………………………………….Full Article: Source

Industrial silver use will jump 27% by 2018 - CRU

Posted on 11 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

More and more applications for silver are being invented, discovered, and, importantly, commercialized, said a new report from the Silver Institute and CRU Consulting, stoking the growth potential from several of the most important industrial silver applications.
Total industrial silver demand is forecast to reach nearly 680 million ounces annually by 2018, according to the “Glistening Particles of Industrial Silver” report scheduled for public release Wednesday morning………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Sees Safe-Haven Demand as World Stock Markets Sell Off

Posted on 10 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices are solidly higher and have pushed well above the $1,200.00 level in early U.S. trading Tuesday. Safe-haven demand, short covering and bargain hunting are featured in the yellow metal. It’s a “risk-off” day in the market place Tuesday.
World stock markets were under pressure overnight, led by sharp declines in Asian shares, and the U.S. stock indexes are also lower in early dealings. February Comex gold was last up $22.00 at $1,216.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last up $13.30 at $1,218.00. March Comex silver last traded up $0.429 at $16.705 an ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is Gold Really the World’s Biggest Economic Bubble?

Posted on 10 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

One economist recently declared that gold in all shapes and sizes is “a 6,000-year-old bubble” and suggested that it “can be viewed as shiny Bitcoin,” or something similar to a pet rock. And the reality is: He’s right.
In the latest Global Economics View report, Citigroup global chief economist Willem Buiter provided his own perspective on the “Save Our Swiss Gold” initiative in Switzerland that would’ve required the Swiss National Bank to hold at least 20% of its assets in gold. The question on the minds of many in Switzerland was whether this would be a worthwhile initiative. Buiter was blunt. “The short answer is: no. The slightly longer answer is: absolutely not.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Jim Rogers Weighs in on Commodities Carnage

Posted on 09 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As global commodities prices plummet, it’s incredibly convenient to pronounce the commodities super-cycle dead, isn’t it? Yet banks from Goldman Sachs to Citigroup to Deutsche Bank are on record as saying it’s over. The Rogers Commodities Index, which represents the value of a basket of 36 commodity futures contracts, is down 20% since mid-June.
But does incredible opportunity lie among the carnage? Well, I asked the Founder of the Index, celebrated hedge fund manager and bestselling author, Jim Rogers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

3 Things to Keep in Mind About Falling Oil Prices

Posted on 09 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Ten years ago, the kind of steep drop in oil prices we’ve seen in recent weeks would have been cause for unmitigated celebration. Economists almost universally analogized higher oil prices to a tax, with the proceeds largely going abroad to OPEC oil-producing countries. So any reduction in oil prices was viewed like a taxcut. Who could be against that?
It’s an indication of how much has changed in energy markets over the past decade that fallen oil prices are viewed with mixed feelings. Yes, some consumers are understandably happy that gas prices almost everywhere have dropped below $3 a gallon. But others worry that the falling oil prices, now down to the mid-$60s per barrel, and possibly falling to about $60 per barrel, will crimp efforts by U.S. shale oil producers to pump more oil out of existing wells and, worse, induce them to quit looking for more………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Who’s Forcing Gold’s Price to Dip?

Posted on 09 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In a blatant and massive market intervention, the price of gold was smashed on November 28. Right after the Commodity Exchange Market (Comex) opened on that morning, 7,008 paper gold contracts representing 20 metric tons of gold were dumped in the New York Comex futures market at 8:50 a.m. EST. At 12:35 p.m. EST, 10,324 contracts representing 30 metric tons of gold were dropped on the Comex futures market.
No relevant news or events occurred that would have triggered this sudden sell-off in gold. Furthermore, none of the other markets experienced any unusual movement (stocks, bonds, currencies). The intervention in the gold market occurred on the Friday after the U.S. had observed its Thanksgiving Day holiday. It is one of the lowest volume trading days of the year on the Comex………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India shows link between crude oil and gold prices

Posted on 05 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A common theme in recent gold market reports is the link between price movements in the precious metal and crude oil. While there certainly appears to be a valid correlation in recent years, one that has strengthened in recent months, events in India show a different, unexpected link between the two commodities.
The Indian authorities caught the gold market by surprise on Nov. 28 by scrapping the so-called 80-20 rule, under which 20 percent of all imported gold had to be re-exported in the form of jewelry. Gold traders had been expecting a tightening of restrictions on gold rather than a loosening, and while a 10 percent customs duty remains, the likelihood is that India will now import more of the yellow metal and reclaim from China its title as the world’s top importer………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Price Will Regain Its Shine in 2015

Posted on 05 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For all the talk of gold sinking remorselessly to $1,000 an ounce, the metal has risen to $1,200 per ounce and has held its ground. Have we seen the bottom? Money managers Doug Loud and Jeff Mosseri of Greystone Asset Management say that if we haven’t seen the bottom, we will soon.
I’m not sure that the shorts can get gold down to $1,000/oz. There is tremendous physical buying, particularly in Asia, and central banks are buying as well. The U.S. and Canadian Mints have stopped making silver coins because they’ve run out of silver. Demand for gold and silver bullion is quite high, but the paper market is about 50 times the size of the physical market. So games can be played in the paper market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

2015 Investor’s Guide: Don’t buy this, buy that—Energy and Mining

Posted on 05 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Sometimes the smartest actions are the ones you don’t take. That old dictum seems relevant at a moment when the markets are a paradox: Each new high only makes many veteran investors more nervous that disaster looms. Between lofty valuations, slowdowns from Europe to China, conflict from Ukraine to Syria, the end of the Fed’s bond-buying binge, and more, there are many reasons for caution.
That’s why this year we decided to recommend not only investments to make but also ones to avoid. Smart defense is always wise, and the good news is that even in these precarious times, there are still opportunities to be found………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Don’t let gold’s rally take you for a ride

Posted on 04 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is unlikely to embark on a sustainable rally any time soon. That is the conclusion of a contrarian analysis of gold-market sentiment. Take gold’s extraordinary volatility over the past few days, with gold plunging as much as $50 on Sunday before rallying just as much on Monday. Journalists and analysts struggled to provide rationales for the market’s behavior, and largely came up short. This is a dead giveaway that the market is being held up more by hot air than by fundamentals.
Sunday’s plunge, for example, was attributed to the failure of the Swiss initiative to require the Swiss National Bank to hold 20% of its reserves in gold. But a “no” vote was largely expected, so it’s hard to see why this outcome should have caused gold to fall by so much. Likewise, there was little to explain Monday’s big rally………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil, gold crash spell end of commodity ‘supercycle’

Posted on 02 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

We are likely witnessing the painful, undignified death of the commodity investment “supercycle.” Oil prices cracked below $70 per barrel after OPEC declined to cut production. Gold sank toward $1150 an ounce after a Swiss vote to compel more central bank gold buying failed and gold holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) shrank to a six-year low. Copper sagged beneath $3 per ounce on tepid China manufacturing activity.
As I discuss with Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Aaron Task in the attached video, this collectively represents a global phenomenon of not enough dollars chasing too much “stuff” – an inversion of the classic (and flawed) monetarist definition of inflation………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is There No Hope For Precious Metals As Gold Falls?

Posted on 02 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global commodity prices continued their decline as December started. Gold dropped $25 in the Asian session to trade at 1150.50 while silver fell below the 15 level to trade at 14.922 down by 634 points. Platinum gave up $18.55 to reach 1192.75. Last week, gold prices traded lower on falling crude oil prices coupled with the strength in the dollar index.
The inflation hedge appeal of the yellow metal has been declining with falling oil prices. Holdings in the SPDR gold trust fell 2.1 tonnes to 718.82 tonnes, near six-year lows. Low volumes on account of U.S. Thanksgiving holiday (Last Thursday) and a key Swiss vote on bullion holdings kept prices stable though………………………………………..Full Article: Source

All You Need To Know About The Swiss Gold Initiative

Posted on 01 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

On Sunday the Swiss people go to the polls to vote on the gold initiative. There are many traders in Swiss positions who are going to be watching the results closely. Here’s a breakdown of what is happening, likely to happen and what the market may do.
First to the basics and what the initiative actually is. The Swiss People’s Party wants to “Save Swiss Gold” to give more credibility to the SNB’s monetary policy and the Swiss Franc. The initiative would require that the SNB; Does not sell anymore of it’s gold reserves. Must not let gold reserves fall below 20%. Must hold all gold reserves in Switzerland……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Swiss vote provokes ‘6,000-year gold bubble’ attack

Posted on 28 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

‘Save Our Swiss Gold’ referendum is a primordial scream against a world of quantitative easing but would paralyze the Swiss National bank. Five million Swiss voters will decide on Sunday whether to force the Swiss National Bank to repatriate all its gold from vaults in Britain and Canada, boost its holdings of bullion to 20pc of foreign reserves and then keep the metal forever.
The “Save Our Swiss Gold” referendum is a valiant attempt by Switzerland’s army of gold bugs - and the populist Swiss People’s party (SVP) – to lead the world back to the halcyon days of the international Gold Standard. It is a primordial scream against a quantitative easing and money creation a l’outrance by the leading central banks……………………………………Full Article: Source

Ed Moy: World entering era of greater gold transparency

Posted on 28 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Edmund C Moy, former US Mint Director and senior aide to President George W Bush, recently joined gold-backed IRA provider Fortress Gold Group as chief strategist. In this interview with MINING.com, Moy discusses growing demand from Asia, paper versus physical markets in gold, the changing central bank landscape and argues that the clamor from citizens for greater transparency about official gold holdings would only grow.
Moy says three-four years ago in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the paper markets in gold and the physical bullion market began to disconnect. “When the gold price hit $1,900 an ounce in 2011, it really should have been at $1,600. It will probably overshoot on the downside too. Paper markets are always way behind or way ahead,” says Moy……………………………………Full Article: Source

6 reasons to be bullish on gold

Posted on 26 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Despite gold prices rising as high as US$1,380 in mid-March, the precious metal hasn’t exactly been a good place to be in 2014. After starting the year around US$1,200, spot prices are essentially flat. However, here are some reasons to be optimistic about gold’s prospects in 2015, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets.
ETF holdings: Exchange-traded-fund liquidations are a major culprit for the weakness in gold prices as an estimated 33 million ounces have been sold in the past two years. That brought gold ETF holdings to a level not seen since prices were near US$1,000 an ounce in 2009. However, the pace of sales has slowed recently……………………………Full Article: Source

Swiss Central Bank Chief Warns on Impact of Gold Vote

Posted on 24 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The head of the Swiss National Bank reiterated concerns that a popular vote on requiring the central bank to keep a fifth of its assets in gold would hinder its ability to conduct monetary policy.
In text of a speech to be delivered Sunday, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said the initiative, known as “Save Our Swiss Gold,” would limit the central bank’s “room for maneuver.” That would make it harder for the bank to intervene during crises and fulfill its mandate of price stability………………………………..Full Article: Source

Swiss to Vote on Central Bank’s Gold

Posted on 24 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Swiss voters will decide Nov. 30 on an initiative that would force the country’s central bank to more than double its gold holdings, a prospect that has rattled markets and drawn opposition from the government, lawmakers and business groups.
The “Save Our Swiss Gold” initiative would require the Swiss National Bank to hold a fifth of its assets in gold within five years. It would also prohibit the bank from selling any of its gold in the future and require that Swiss gold held overseas be repatriated…………………………………Full Article: Source

The Commodity Supercycle: It’s Not Over Just Yet

Posted on 19 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As surprising as it might sound today, we believe the secular trend for commodities has higher elevations to travel, before eventually running its course - perhaps stretching as far as early into the next decade.
While in 2011 we became adamant that the thesis trade in commodities—specifically in its leading sector of precious metals—had become crowded and overhyped, those excesses have been wrung out of the markets over the past three and a half years and offer what we perceive to be extremely compelling long-term valuations going forward……………………………………Full Article: Source

Elliott Wave analyst sees big gold and silver price surge ahead

Posted on 19 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As usual the bank analysts are great at making forward price predictions based almost entirely on the current performance of whatever commodity they are analysing. It means they almost all inevitably miss any major turning points in price performance.
This is particularly true of those forecasting precious metals prices and recently, given the sharp price falls which took gold down to around $1140, silver to $15 and platinum to below $1180, many of the banks have been rapidly adjusting their forward price predictions ever lower……………………………………Full Article: Source

Swiss yes vote won’t really boost gold price

Posted on 18 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold was trading sideways on Monday after last week’s recovery from four-and-half-year lows, but traders hoping for a stronger showing following a Swiss referendum on gold may be disappointed. The Swiss go to the polls on November 30 in a referendum that will lay down new rules for the country’s central bank concerning its gold reserves.
Surveys are divided about support for the “Save Our Gold” camp that would force the Swiss National Bank to hold 20% of its reserves in gold, repatriate bullion held outside its borders and halt all sales, and not everyone even agrees that a yes vote would lift gold prices…………………………………Full Article: Source

Is OPEC Doing what it is saying?

Posted on 17 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC will have its incoming 166th meeting on November 27th of this month. This is a considerably important meeting for oil prices, global economic growth and all motorists in the world. OPEC has said that it will not cut its production and will let oil price decline, which has actually plunged by more than 25% this year. Will OPEC cut its production in order stabilize oil prices? Saying it in another way, are the Saudis bluffing about being comfortable with current oil production and are not happy with the market doing the pricing?
To answer this question, we can look at OPEC’s current production and its production history. And since OPEC is really Saudi Arabia, we can bring up the subject of whether the Saudis are tactical or strategic decision makers……………………………………Full Article: Source

Gold and Silver 2015 Trend Forecasts, Prices to Go BOOM

Posted on 17 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

“Finally!” in English, “Por fin!” in Spanish and “About bloody time!!” in Australian. The belated rally in gold and silver finally got underway when it was least expected. The contrarian wins again!
The final bear market rally in gold and silver kicked off after a fake out move lower and should end with a fake out move higher. That’s the way I see it anyway. Of course the permabulls will be back out in force again calling the next great bull market now in progress and this rally should terminate when those calls reach fever pitch……………………………………Full Article: Source

Could Gold Reach $800?

Posted on 17 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

They say beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. And what could be more beautiful than bullions of pure gold? Gold has always held a special allure for jewelry lovers. But it has also been a key investment commodity. Gold has been regarded as a crisis hedge, a currency hedge, an inflation hedge and a deflation hedge.
Since 2011, however, gold has topped out and has fallen almost 40 percent from its all-time highs, far below bulls’ anticipated targets. Silver, too, has crashed, along with many other base metals. Growth in developed and underdeveloped economies has slackened considerably of late, a reflection of the slowdown in the manufacturing industries around the world. In fact, at this point, there is no good reason for investors to hold gold in the U.S……………………………………Full Article: Source

GE’S Rice Says Commodities Slump Puts Premium on Products

Posted on 14 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

General Electric Co. (GE), which provides everything from oil drilling systems to vehicles for underground mining, said it expects to benefit from lower commodities prices as producers chase cost cuts to offset declining revenue.
The company can still gain from demand for equipment and services that help trim expenses even as slumping prices for crude and other raw materials makes orders “a little bit bumpier,” GE Vice Chairman John Rice said in an interview in Rio de Janeiro………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold: The One Commodity Buffett and Bernanke Just Don’t Understand

Posted on 14 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Royal Mint gets it. Because I see such deep value in gold today, I was exploring various national mints last week, looking to buy some bullion — maybe some Austrian Philharmonics, some Canadian Maple Leafs or a few Britannia’s from the U.K.
And while reading through the bullion site for Britain’s Royal Mint, I came across some highly unexpected commentary. While the likes of Ben Bernanke, Warren Buffett and others here in the States offer inane commentary on the uselessness of gold, the 1,100-year-old Royal Mint had this to say: Gold is the ultimate store of value. Gold is the original and still the most far-reaching global currency…………………………………Full Article: Source

Do something about gas prices? Why?

Posted on 13 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices are plunging. Gasoline is now cheaper than milk. Why doesn’t Washington do something already? Since peaking in June, the price of oil has tumbled by 25 percent. Texas light sweet crude futures have fallen to around $77.40 a barrel, a three-year low, while Brent oil, the global benchmark, sank on Monday to its lowest price in four years.
With cheaper oil has come cheaper gasoline. The national average price for a gallon of regular is now just $2.926. Drivers haven’t seen pump prices this low since December 2010. Nor have they seen such a sustained decline — the price has dropped for 46 days in a row — since 2008. According to AAA, “the national average could fall another 5-15 cents in the coming weeks, which could make for the cheapest Thanksgiving gas in half a decade.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

ETF Securities: commodities still attractive for investors

Posted on 12 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities are starting to attract buyers looking to benefit from the recent sharp prices falls. ETF Securities associate research director Nitesh Shah suggests that despite several weeks of falling commodity prices, further falls should not be expected without causing a supply response. This has prompted an increase in inflows to the company’s commodity exchange traded products (ETPs), with energy currently the favoured play.
The previous week saw the largest inflows in six weeks, with investors looking to take advantage of oil prices slumping to a five-year low. Some $12.3 million went into long crude oil ETPs, with the majority favouring WTI over Brent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Australia will survive the commodity slump

Posted on 11 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s not a well-known fact, but a slump in commodity prices has never caused a recession in Australia. With that in mind, we shouldn’t be overly concerned by investment bank analysts who run around saying just this — they are very wrong. Indeed, amid all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, it strikes me that the commodity drop may even be beneficial.
I realise this point may seem counterintuitive, and may even be met with howls of outrage — commodities account for about 73 per cent of our exports. Yet the point is, a drop in commodity prices isn’t all bad. No doubt profits for ‘our’ commodity exporters will plummet — sharply maybe — yet it’s often forgotten that our commodity exporters aren’t really true blue Aussies………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will Deener: Is it time to buy commodities?

Posted on 11 November 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A central Illinois farmer cultivates his harvested cornfield in Morton, Ill. Corn prices skyrocketed from about $2 a bushel in 2006 to about $8 a bushel in 2012. Today, corn prices are down about 50 percent from those lofty levels. Not so long ago commodities were all the rage, but surprisingly, this asset class has been abandoned by big and small investors alike.
Throughout much of the past decade, investing in crude oil, metals and grains became increasingly popular as China grew into an economic juggernaut. Demand for commodities outstripped supply and prices soared………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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