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Investors Turning Their Gaze To Silver

Posted on 30 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

While silver prices have trended lower over the last three months, investor interest in the white metal has been tracking upwards, said an executive with the Silver Institute.
The Silver Institute released a report Oct. 22, produced by the CPM Group, stating that investors may increase their net silver purchases by as much as 1 billion additional ounces in various investment instruments over the next decade………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What a commodity bust would mean for Canada’s economy

Posted on 27 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The past few months have brought shock and upheaval to energy markets, as well as angst to many corners of the Canadian economy. Since June, the U.S. price of oil has plunged more than 20 per cent, briefly tumbling below US$80 a barrel last week.
The decline has weighed heavily on Canadian stocks, which were already caught in the downdraft of a global stock market correction. Even after several days of recovery, the S&P/TSX index was, as of Tuesday, still below the peak it reached just before the Great Recession six years ago………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold loses sheen

Posted on 27 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After a sharp rise in the beginning of last week, the yellow metal lost momentum and reversed lower. It fell to a low of $1,226 on Thursday before closing at $1,231 on Friday, down 0.6 per cent for the week. The other precious metals Silver and Platinum also closed the week in the red. Silver closed at $17.2 per ounce, down 0.4 per cent and Platinum at $1,250 per ounce, down 0.9 per cent.
Existing home sales in US beating market expectation was the initial trigger that caused a reversal in gold prices. This number increased 2.4 per cent to 5.17 million units in September from 5.05 million in August. Market was expecting a 1 per cent rise in the existing home sales………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Here’s Why Copper Is Still So Strong

Posted on 27 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Copper is supposed to be the commodity with a PhD. That is, copper has always been seen as so ubiquitous throughout the global economy that its moves, like the Aussie dollar’s, are often taken as a proxy for traders views on global growth.
So copper’s resilience above $3 a pound over the past 4 months has been a stand-out price performance which has had traders scratching their heads………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why It’s Finally Time To Buy Commodities

Posted on 24 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

My friend, the time has FINALLY come…It is time to buy commodities. For years, I’ve urged you to invest in the stock market and the housing market. (I hope you took my advice… Stocks and housing have soared!) But one asset class has been completely left out of the fun… commodities.
In the summer of 2008, big investors loved commodities… The Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index peaked at a value around 240. And Harvard University, a big investor, allocated 8% of its endowment to “public commodities.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

How commodity bourses can survive

Posted on 24 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In commodity, like any other trading one does not mind paying a transaction fee as long as profits are made. However, once an entity starts making losses, the concern on the high transaction fee becomes multi-fold. On the other hand, when commodity exchanges start making losses, they may be forced to increase transaction fee camouflaged under some other name to boost the revenue.
This often causes narrowing of participation and alienation of new participation on the exchange platform. Comexes, which till a few years ago were embarking on global ambitions, are now struggling for survival. Of the first three national exchanges that were granted license, one continues to make profit due to low cost of operation, the other is showing signs of operating losses while the third continues to struggle………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Can the Indian-Chinese Gold Frenzy Boost Prices?

Posted on 24 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Many investors aren’t pleased with the current price of gold , which closed Wednesday at $1,241.10 per ounce, but for buyers in India, the metal’s ill fortune has turned into an opportunity. CNBC reported that a better Indian economy has prompted those in the country to buy the yellow metal during this year’s five-day Diwali festival, which will peak on Thursday.
“[T]here is more money around to spend,” Matthew Turner, a precious metals analyst at Macquarie, told the news outlet. Also helping sales is a slight relaxation in the 80:20 rule. Put in place by the Indian government back in 2012, it mandates that 20 percent of imported gold be set aside for re-export. Along with a concurrent jump in the country’s gold tax from 2 to 10 percent, it put quite a damper on gold sales last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Is Undervalued – Ned Goodman

Posted on 23 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Ned Goodman, president and chief executive officer of Dundee Corp., believes gold is undervalued while equities are poised for a crash. Speaking at a keynote luncheon at the Quebec Mining Exploration Xplor 2014 Convention in Montreal, Quebec, Goodman was blunt regarding gold prices and where they’re heading.
“We think gold is very undervalued at current gold prices,” Goodman said. “I think gold will hit $1,200, and when it does, be a buyer because I think that will be a good place to be.” Touching on stock markets, Goodman didn’t pull any punches, calling it a Botox market where all deficiencies are simply covered and propped up to look healthy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will Gold Outshine Platinum? — Overheard

Posted on 23 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold and platinum are prized for their rarity. What is happening with their prices right now is also pretty unusual. At about $1,245 an ounce, gold isn’t far off parity with platinum at about $1,270. This doesn’t happen often. In the past 20 years, gold has matched or exceeded the platinum price only about 7% of the time. And much of that occurred between the summer of 2011 and early 2013, when quantitative easing was in full swing and hyperbole about the dollar’s demise was at its height.
Similarly, the current price action reflects an anxious world. Gold hasn’t really gained much this year; rather, platinum has collapsed since July. This makes sense. as more than half of platinum demand relates to industrial, primarily, automotive uses. Deflation fears have whacked industrial commodities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold and Silver Timing is Everything

Posted on 23 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Timing is everything in investments, and after watching the precious metals markets for the past three months, since the publishing of his last article at the June lows, Peter draws the conclusion that gold bullion and gold mining stocks have finally bottomed and are ready to resume the bullish trend than began twelve years ago.
The fundamentals support an end to the correction that began in September of 2011: 1. Asian and Russian banks continue to accumulate gold faster than mines can produce this precious metal. 2. Western nations are running ongoing Federal Deficits. Deficits are always covered with printing press money. This ‘currency destruction’ causes investors to add gold and silver to their net worth………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Chinese and Indian gold buyers back in market in a big way

Posted on 22 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What has been particularly strange about the gold market over the past two years is that the stronger the physical demand appearing for gold, the weaker the gold price has tended to get.
In the past few months, the gold price has fallen back from around $1,340 down at one time to $1,190 and now hovering back seemingly trying to breach $1,250 on the upside again, yet by all accounts demand in the two biggest consuming nations has been soaring and they are, between them, taking in virtually everything the world’s gold mines can produce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is This Crunch Time for Base Metals?

Posted on 22 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Anyone investing in industrial metals needs to be patient. Copper, nickel, zinc and tin are likely to suffer low prices for some time yet, traders and analysts warn, though many are hopeful they’ll hit a floor soon. Demand has been dented by weakening global growth—not least concerns about a Chinese slowdown–which means metal consumption isn’t rising as fast as many had expected.
Traders are feeling particularly grim about copper. According to a survey of LME Week participants conducted by Macquarie Group Ltd, copper is the metal that people most want to bet against — the first time that’s been the case in six years. By contrast, traders are more optimistic about zinc, according to the survey………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is the oil price fall more than just a coincidence?

Posted on 21 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent drop in oil prices could be due to more than just lower demand, according to some analysts, who have suggested that the U.S. could be deliberately manipulating the market to hurt Russia at a time of geopolitical stress.
Patrick Legland, the global head of research at Societe Generale, conceded that he had no in depth knowledge of the situation but claimed that it was an “interesting coincidence” that the two events were happening at the same time………………………………………..Full Article: Source

American specialists expect two-fold rise in gold prices by the end of 2014

Posted on 21 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

American economists, such as John Williams, Peter Schiff, Paul Craig Roberts and Gerald Celente, expect the global revaluation of world currencies by the end of 2014. American statistical analyst Jim Willie explained the mechanism of such revaluation: Shanghai gold exchange is to eventually take over global price controls for the monetary metal away from the Comex (New York commodity exchange), and then force a global currency reset by raising the price of gold to its true or actual value, which exceeds the current price at least two-fold.
“When we get this next global currency reset, it’s going to be a complete reset. It apparently will happen predominantly in the gold world. They are going to change the price of gold, and jam it down the U.S.’s throat………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Five reasons to buy gold now

Posted on 20 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The last few years have been harrowing for gold investors, with international prices of the metal declining from $1,921 per troy ounce to about $1,240 now. But hold on, don’t write off gold yet. Global supplies of the yellow metal are likely to shrink as new reserves become increasingly difficult to find. And given that the Asian appetite for gold is set to grow, gold demand may only go up.
Here are five reasons why you should buy gold now: In the years ahead, it is likely to get increasingly difficult for producers to find easy-to-mine deposits of gold. At 2,968.5 tonnes (Thomson Reuters GFMS data), many investors believe that 2013 may be the peak year for gold production………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why worry about bullion silver?

Posted on 20 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bullion silver is likely to be less pure than coins or small bars, but 1,000 ounce bullion silver bars are cheaper per ounce than the smaller fabricated sizes. Bullion silver is typically available for only a few cents more per ounce than the spot price in the paper futures market.
So long as bullion bars can always be purchased at little more than spot price, a business that simply melts the bars would never pay more to melt fabricated silver, even if it is more highly refined. If the business could not buy cheap bullion bars locally, it would simply go long a futures contract and then stand for delivery of the physical bullion silver. If a company cannot get bullion bars from the futures market to consume for its production needs, then there will be a delivery default on the futures exchange………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Recent decline in crude oil price artificial: Jim Rogers

Posted on 17 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Even as crude oil prices have dipped to all-time lows, Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings told ET Now that the decline is ‘artificial’. “Some of this (oil price decline) is artificial. OPEC is trying to drive down prices because of Shale competition. The oil situation is very artificial at the moment.”
“It looks like a lot of people are dumping. This is artificial. Though I would not be dumping oil myself,” Rogers said. Asked about the US Shale gas boom, Rogers said, The Shale boom will not continue very strong especially if prices do come down. That is high cost oil, and remember those are very short lived wells,” Rogers said. “The production runs down very quickly,” he added. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

The Real Reason Behind Gold’s October Surge

Posted on 17 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

On October 6 when GLD was trading for $114, I outlined a surprising case for the bullish trend change in the precious metals by asking the question accompanying the chart below, “What is this a chart of?”
In my article, “This Secret Uptrend Will Surprise You,” I laid the case for a rally in the precious metals on the back of a short term bottom in the Euro. That article and chart were extremely important for those owning precious metals as the updated chart below shows price has held its trend (in Euros) and has again started to advance………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How To Use a Trend-Following Strategy In Commodities

Posted on 15 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A recent article in the Financial Times highlights why, in part, the steam has gone out of the commodity markets. Judging the super cycle to be at and end investors have exited the market en mass in the belief no money is to be made from a falling market. After making 7% returns in the first half of the year from simply tracking the Bloomberg (formerly Dow Jones) Commodity Index, the third quarter has seen prices fall across the board.
According to the FT, figures compiled by Citigroup show net withdrawals from exchange-traded and commodity-linked funds totaled $8.2 billion in the 3 months to the end of September, canceling out inflows of $7.5 billion in the first half of the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Palladium stands out from commodities crowd

Posted on 15 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

“Palladium is the outlier in the metal space,” says Walter de Wet, commodities strategist at Standard Bank. Speculative short positions – bets that the price will drop – have been rising across the market since mid-August, not surprising given the negative sentiment shift of late.
The selling has hit both precious and industrial products, with silver and copper shorts at the most in at least five years, Mr de Wet notes. The palladium price has slipped more than $100 over the past few months but, in contrast to peers, palladium shorts have also been falling………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will Gold Prices Make A Reverse Swing?

Posted on 14 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

This is the festival time in India and should investors consider this sell-off as an opportunity to buy precious metals on the cheap? Is it the right time to buy Gold? Why this decline may not benefit Indian consumers? Take International Gold prices which fell under $1,200 an ounce this week for the first time in 2014.
Looking at technical price charts, a nearby continuation chart shows the December 2013 low of $1,180, which is just above the June low of $1,179.40. How the physical market responds to the trip under $1,200. Chinese traders will return to the market next week after their Golden Week holiday ends, and they anticipate these lower prices will stimulate Chinese demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will gold and silver prices continue to go up as stocks go down?

Posted on 13 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Last week gold and silver prices advanced by three per cent while the S&P 500 lost that much in its worst week for two years. Is this a new trend? Gold has almost certainly traced out a bullish triple bottom in its price chart, although the position looks less clear on the silver chart. Many areas of the US stock market are already past 10 per cent corrections while the major indexes are the last dominos to fall and on their way down now.
Is this a straightforward rotation into safe havens? T-bonds are also up. Riskier assets like junk bonds are out of favor like small cap stocks. True but this is not going to be a repeat of the 2008-9 wipe-out for precious metals for three reasons. First, gold and silver have just completed a three-year-plus correction. They are not at the top of their cycle waiting for a correction like equities today as they were in late 2008………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity free fall

Posted on 10 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects commodity prices to decline till 2019 across fuel, metal and agricultural products. It expects inflation in emerging markets to decline due to softening prices, especially of food. That will be good news for India. Low energy prices will mean a lower current account deficit for the country.
Low inflation can mean lower interest rates, lower costs for producers and more money with consumers, leading to better corporate earnings growth. Nevertheless, IMF also cites the risks of oil prices rising due to geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. And producers such as farmers and metal companies may feel the heat, and if they cut output, these projections will be at risk………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What are commodities and the dollar telling us?

Posted on 09 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices are tanking while the dollar soars, and this action tells volumes about market action and where new opportunities might be found. Here are some takeaways from action in commodities and the dollar:
Commodity prices rise and fall inversely to the strength of the dollar. Since Aug. 28, the dollar has been on a steady climb, so ETFs like the PowerShares Bullish Dollar UUP, -0.44% have been a good place to be as the ETF is up more than 7% since early August. This is likely to continue as quantitative easing comes to an end and the Fed moves toward raising interest rates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Morgan Stanley Says Gold One Of The Least Desireable Metals

Posted on 09 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Asian markets are trading on a negative note ahead of the US Federal Reserve minutes today and concerns that global economic growth may worsen in future after International Monetary Fund (IMF) cuts the global growth forecast to 3.8 percent in 2015 from earlier estimates of 4 percent. This morning China’s HSBC Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined by 0.6 points to 53.5-mark in September as against a rise of 54.1-level in August.
Gold rose for a second session on Tuesday as its safe-haven appeal increased after the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth forecasts and weak German industrial data stoked further concerns. Gold is trading at 1213.30 up by just under $1.00 in the Asian sessions………………………………………..Full Article: Source

International Gold Price should Bottom around $1,100 per Ounce

Posted on 09 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has lost its year to date gains post Friday’s blockbuster US jobs data. The headline US unemployment rate came in at 5.9% - the last time the unemployment rate was below 6% was in July 2008.
The US economy added 248,000 jobs in September, which marked the 48th straight month of job creation. This was sufficient news flow for traders to push back the price of the precious metal below $1,200/ounce as the probability of an earlier than expected rate hike by the Fed looks likely………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity super cycle going bust

Posted on 08 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

One of my key macro themes for next decade is the bust unfolding in the commodity super cycle. There are three macro forces driving this end: China’s structural rebalancing away from commodity-centric and debt-charged investment-led growth; the moderate rebound in US economic prospects, modest rises in interest rates and US dollar bull market; and, oversupply rushing to market in all sorts of commodities.
That gives you the rather sad combination of falling demand, increasing supply and a monetary headwind given most commodities are priced in US dollars, the complete inverse of the super cycle conditions that have prevailed through much of the post-millennial period………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Are Commodities Telling Us It’s 2008 Redux?

Posted on 08 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

We can look back to the 2008 global financial market meltdown and cite any number of warning signs that became so painfully obvious in hindsight. Perhaps the clearest warning sign that trouble was just around the corner began in July of 2008 when virtually all commodities entered into a steep tailspin which they would not pull out of for at least another 8 months:
Platinum, WTI crude oil, and copper offer a sampling of the steep downside reversals that commodities as a group suffered beginning in July 2008. Perhaps what was most interesting about the commodities collapse of summer 2008 was the consistent commentary that the bullish thesis for commodities (China, BRICs, global growth, etc.) was still very much intact even as prices continued to tumble………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Don’t get whipsawed investing in the gold market

Posted on 08 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Before you jump into gold, be aware that it is a very thin market, one in which you can get whipsawed very easily. Right now, gold might seem very attractive. After reaching an all-time high of $1,950 an ounce back in September 2011, the benchmark gold future contract GCZ4, -0.16% did a 180 and closed last week just below $1,193 an ounce. This was a plunge of 38%, bringing gold’s price to its lowest level since February 2010.
September’s drop of 6.3% was the biggest monthly decline in 15 months. The retreat for the third quarter as a whole was 9%. Although gold did edge back over $1,200 as this week got underway, the underlying mood remains decidedly bearish………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Does China Really Impact Global Commodity Prices? (Video)

Posted on 07 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Does China really have a strong impact on the US and global commodity prices? No, says economist Kel Kelly. Kel Kelly, economist with GROWMARK, said China doesn’t have a strong impact on the US or global markets because they don’t buy US agricultural products.
He explains the rationale behind his view. Kel spoke at the Global Grains North America conference held in Chicago, Illinois, USA………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is Gold’s Tumble an End for Commodity Super-Cycle? (Video)

Posted on 07 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

UBS U.S. equity and derivatives strategist Julian Emanuel and Partnership for a Secure America co-chairman Jamie Metzl discuss what the falling price of gold means for commodities and how China’s push for economic reform impacts global commodity demand. They speak on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”.………………………………………Full Article: Source

Emerging markets adapt to ‘new normal’ as commodities cycle ends

Posted on 06 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Emerging market investors are in the grip of their third taper tantrum in 18 months. This time, however, “tantrum” – suggesting an all-consuming but shortlived emotional fit – may no longer be the right word. What’s happening now is more akin to a lasting personality change as markets adapt to a “ new normal” resulting from what many think will be structural rather than cyclical changes in conditions.
“There are so many layers of complexity,” says Luis Costa, a currency and credit strategist at Citi. “A lot of investors out there still think of emerging markets from the perspective of the commodities cycle. But the commodities cycle is over.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold Bulls Retreat as Short Holdings Rise to Highest Ever

Posted on 06 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Speculators pared bets on rising gold prices for a seventh consecutive week, the longest retreat since 2010, as futures erased this year’s gains.
The net-long position in New York futures and options contracted as hedge funds accumulated the most bets on further declines since the U.S. government began collecting data in 2006. The most-traded Comex gold option on Oct. 3 was for the right to sell December futures at $1,100 an ounce, or almost 8 percent below where prices ended the day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Put gold to work for economy, says WGC

Posted on 06 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold should be put to work for the Indian economy, creating jobs, developing skills, generating exports and revenues, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Saturday unveiling its Vision 2020 for the industry.
“Our vision for gold is that it should be put to work for the economy, creating jobs, developing skills, generating exports and revenues — an essential part of the financial, economic and social structure of the country,” The WGC said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Head for Biggest Quarterly Loss Since 2008

Posted on 01 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Corn futures tumbled to a five-year low, gold is the cheapest since January and copper extended this year’s decline as raw materials posted their worst quarter since 2008. The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell as much as 1.5 percent today, the biggest intraday loss since June 2013.
U.S. corn inventories before the start of this year’s harvest were bigger than analysts forecast, the government said today. Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded products are near the lowest in five years amid waning investor demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India: Commodity super cycle turning downward, says RBI

Posted on 01 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said global commodities prices have already touched inflexion points and are now on a downward path. The central bank’s statement is based on data on commodity prices, both energy and non-energy, for the past five decades. “Since 1894, four super cycles have been identified, with the last starting in the late 1990s and attributed to rapid and sustained industrialisation and urbanisation in China and other emerging economies,” RBI said.
In the latest commodity super cycle, inflation adjusted prices of commodities rose 60-500 per cent between 1999 and 2010. Oil price rose 467 per cent, metals 202 per cent and the prices of agricultural commodities 77 per cent, the steepest price increases among the four commodity super cycles (after adjusting for inflation)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC Fizzles: Caught Between a Rock and a Shale Boom

Posted on 01 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Things just aren’t the way they used to be. Four decades ago, King Faisal of Saudi Arabia snapped his fingers and nearly brought the West to its knees. It happened in 1973, right after he met with Egyptian president Anwar Sadat and they agreed to use their oil as a weapon.
It worked… a little too well. I imagine my veteran readers can recall scenes like the one to the right. The effects were catastrophic as oil prices surged threefold. Faisal became Time’s Man of the Year a year later. Oh, how the times have changed. OPEC’s power has diminished substantially since the 1970s, and the tables are quickly turning………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Stay Liquid for the Coming Gold Boom

Posted on 01 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

I believe we have two different markets. One is an honest market for physical metal. The other is a market that has increasingly become less than honest. The latter is a paper market, primarily in London and New York, and it is used to muddy the waters of price discovery with gold and silver. This paper market price is assumed to be the real price of gold. I don’t think that’s true.
There is a need on the part of Wall Street, and the ruling elite within the Anglo-American empire, to keep people uninterested in honest money and real gold because dishonest enterprises must keep people from knowing the truth. What we have essentially is a fiat currency system that is devised to allow those in charge of the monetary system to profit at the expense of the real producers of wealth: the miners, the manufacturers, the farmers, the inventors………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver losing its luster?

Posted on 01 October 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver continues to “lose its luster” as new highs in the U.S. Dollar again weigh heavily on the precious metals. Both silver and gold made new contract lows this morning in the December contract as the dollar continues to tear higher.
Provided the market continues to put in new contract lows, there’s not much that can be gained in terms of potential support targets by looking at the December chart and those looking for longer term support should consider using a continuous chart. There are a few structural points at 17.325 and 17.440 that could provide initial resistance to any corrective strength in the silver market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will gold fall off the $1200 precipice?

Posted on 29 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As I write the gold price is sitting at around US$1225, but it fell at one time yesterday to around US$1206 and it may not take much to drive it down below the key US$1200 psychological support level. If it breaches this level the price could well fall sharply further with computer based stop loss sales coming in strongly. The fall could then become something of a rout.
And with gold bears like Jeffrey Currie at Goldman Sachs getting in there keen to generate further downwards momentum so his end- year US$1050 gold price might actually come about, then who’s to say it won’t freefall to US$1100 or below………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India: Driven by demand gold imports likely to double this October

Posted on 29 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

India’s gold imports are likely to double in October, driven by demand from consumers who purchase jewellery during the festival season. But investment demand, usually in the form of coins and bars, is likely to be less this year, which in turn may reduce the volume of gold entering the country through illegal routes, say industry executives.
The bullion industry pegs gold imports at 80 tonnes next month. “Last year during October, we had imported around 35-40 tonnes of gold. Gold availability was under pressure due to the 80:20 rule,” Prithviraj Kothari, vice-president of the Indian Bullion & Jewellery Association, told ET………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How Commodity Traders Are Making One Big Bet

Posted on 26 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A number of years ago, I worked as an equity portfolio manager at a Commodity Trading Advisor that used trend following models. While I knew nothing about the specifics of their models, I knew that the traders next door appeared white-knuckled at the end of the day. Even though they were diversified across many different contracts, the trading system often steered them into a single big macro bet.
The bet might be characterized as a directional exposure to interest rates, or currencies, etc. It was then I realized that the application of trend following models on commodity, bond and currencies was picking up directional economic trends - but that’s another story………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Some Traders See Potential For ‘Severely Oversold’ Silver To Now Outperform Gold

Posted on 26 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Some traders and analysts are wondering if the gold/silver ratio got out of whack after silver was beat up worse than gold during a recent downdraft in the two precious metals. If so, there might be potential for silver to now outperform or at least hold up better than the yellow metal going forward. Traders who share this view could try to exploit this in a ratio trade, they say.
Others, however, look for silver to keep underperforming as long as the precious metals complex remains in a downtrend. The gold/silver ratio measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold. As the ratio falls, it means silver is outperforming gold, and vice-versa………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A Rational Look At Gold

Posted on 26 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The fundamentals that drive Gold prices higher are in full force and improving. Central banks are buying more of the precious metal — to reinforce their reserves — while countries that are known to be big consumers of gold bullion post increased demand. According to the India Bullion & Jewellers’ Association, India’s monthly gold bullion imports are expected to rise by as much as 50% in the coming few months — in the range of 70 to 75 tonnes per month compared to an average of 50 to 60 tonnes now.
That is mainly due to the festival/wedding season fast approaching in India. If India continues to import 70 tonnes of gold bullion each month, then the total imports just to India will be 31% of all world gold mine production (based on 2,700 tons in annual mine production)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why you should have commodities in your portfolio

Posted on 25 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities have been a major revelation this millenium and several investors have added it to their portfolios for a variety of reasons. One key factor has, of course, been the outstanding returns commodity investments have given since the year 2000. Secondly, globalization has opened the doors to true diversification in India.
Usually financial advisors recommend an allocation between 5% and 20% in commodities. This is because if you look at returns over the last forty years or so, data shows that commodities offer diversification and good returns with similar volatility as equities. This information usually takes one by surprise as commodities are perceived to be more volatile and therefore more risky………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Speculation Interest Rising - Gold Price Falling

Posted on 25 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Recent Seeking Alpha articles take very opposite postures on gold commitments, but the more optimistic, flamboyant, promotional approach seems to draw larger attention. Old saying: You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.
When I started in the late 1950s just out of B-school as an investment researcher for one of the top NYC investment counsel firms my assignment was the metals stocks. It was apparent then, as it has continued to be since, that making forecasts about gold and gold stocks was an entertainment activity graced with results drawn from a random number table………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How low can gold and silver go?

Posted on 25 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A word of warning – if you’re a gold or a silver bug, you’re not going to like what I have to say. Gold looks absolutely awful. It’s up the proverbial creek and there’s no paddle in sight. Silver looks even worse.
Just how much more ugly can all this get? What’s the worst-case scenario for silver? We’ll start with silver. Last week, Reuters reported that silver holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were at all-time highs. That is incredibly bearish – and it was worrying me a few weeks back………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China’s long term gold plans

Posted on 22 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The launch of Shanghai Gold Exchange trading yuan denominated contracts in the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone Thursday, which has enabled foreign investors to invest in China’s physical gold bullion market, is yet another one of China’s overt moves to dominate the global gold sector long term.
It may make a slow start but aims to become the world’s biggest physical gold exchange and is thus is in itself a move towards reducing the influence of COMEX and the LBMA on global gold trade and pricing and move the centre of gravity for this eastwards. Similar moves to set up new international gold contracts in Singapore and Hong Kong will further accelerate the move in gold trade to east Asia………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities: Back On A Steady Course‏

Posted on 19 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Overall, we are looking for higher global economic growth next year - however, recently worries have emerged that economic growth in China is slowing down. In turn, the acceleration of growth expected in Q3 has failed to materialise and we could see a further decline in growth in Q4.
However, we expect the Chinese government and central bank to keep growth stable next year. Besides the renewed focus on the risk of lower growth in China, the main factor driving commodity markets currently is abundant supplies, in particular in the global energy and grain market. Overall, we expect commodity markets to remain well supplied in 2015. However, low prices may begin to be an issue for producers as they take their toll on profits……………………………………..Full Article: Source

What’s Caused The Commodity Bull Market To Derail?

Posted on 19 September 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The commodities market started the year like a rocket. Since July it has lost almost all its gains. Like the market I started the year bullish on precious metals stocks. I turned defensive in June. I have since turned more bearish and am net short gold and silver stocks.
The commodity complex is in free fall. Agriculture products are falling out of bed. Metals are moving to yearly lows. Even copper has broken down which is the best gauge of world growth……………………………………..Full Article: Source

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