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Is gold’s 50% bull market fall the launchpad for $8,800 an ounce?

Posted on 23 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Will the author of ‘Hot Commodities’ and the man who spotted the boom in the sector before anybody else, Jim Rogers now start buying gold? He said earlier this year that he would when the bull market showed a 50 per cent retracement. That is to say the gold price had fallen to halfway between the $287 an ounce it was in 2000 to the $1,923 it reached in 2011.
Rogers astutely noted that he did not know a commodity market that had not corrected in this way before powering very much higher, and that has now happened. Perhaps he has already been out bargain hunting. After all that’s how this ex-hedge fund manager made another fortune in the 2000s, ahead of everybody else. He parked his money in commodities and went off for a three-year holiday with his then girlfriend and now wife………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold tumbles on global commodities rout, falling prices ahead of Fed’s rate hike prospects

Posted on 22 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The rout in commodities deepened with prices heading for the lowest close since 2002 as the prospect of higher US interest rates sent gold tumbling. Raw materials are losing favour with investors as the dollar gains amid signals from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that the central bank may raise rates this year on the back of an improving US economy. Higher borrowing costs curb the attractiveness of commodities such as gold, which doesn’t pay interest or give returns like assets including bonds and equities.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped as much as 1.1 per cent, falling for a fifth day in the longest stretch of declines since March.Gold futures sank to the weakest in more than five years while industrial metals, grains, Brent crude and US natural gas also slid as a measure of the dollar climbed to the highest since April 13………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How Low Can Gold And Silver Go?

Posted on 22 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

On Sunday afternoon, I published a viral piece called “Did A Major Gold And Silver Breakdown Just Begin?” in which I explained that gold and silver may be on the verge of an imminent sell-off if key technical levels were broken. I showed that wedge patterns had formed in gold and silver for the past two years, and these patterns may indicate the resumption of the 2011 to 2013 bear market when broken.
Amazingly, when gold and silver opened for trading on Sunday night, they experienced stunning flash crashes that caused them to slice clearly below the $1,130 and $15 technical levels I showed in the piece………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China’s Commodities Crash Will Not Make Australia The Next Greece

Posted on 21 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s entirely possible that the Chinese economy is in the middle of a massive crash: there’s well informed people asserting just that. It’s also entirely possible that Australia won’t have a happy time of it if that is indeed so: the country has waxed very fat off the commodities boom as China has developed at breakneck speed.
However, there’s then those saying that this will mean that the Australian economy will then suffer the catastrophe that has befallen Greece: and this just ain’t so. That is to misdiagnose what has happened to Greece: it’s not that its terms of trade changed, but that it wasn’t allowed to use the simplest and best method of altering an economy to deal with changes in the terms of trade………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Price: This is how events in China and Greece have contributed to plummeting prices

Posted on 21 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What’s happened to the price of gold? Gold is now the cheapest it’s been for more than five years. You can buy an ounce of gold for $1,088 (£697) – a drop of 4 per cent. This is the first time gold has traded below $1100 since March 2010. Some analysts are predicting that the price of gold will fall below $1000 an ounce by the end of the year.
Why? Gold is getting cheaper because people are choosing to invest in assets that might increase in value – like currency. Janet Yellen, the chair of the US Federal Reserve, said that interest rates might rise by the end of the year. This gives people confidence that the US economy is going to continue to improve – and that the dollar is going to strengthen with it………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The biggest secret in the gold market for the past six years is revealed

Posted on 21 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

One big mystery in the gold market has kept anyone interested in the precious metal guessing for the past six years: how much gold does China hold? Well, now we know. At the end of last week, China revealed the scale of its current gold holdings. And judging by the market reaction, it was a massive anti-climax… China’s hanging on to a lot less gold than anyone thought.
In 2009, China held 1,054 tonnes of gold. Now China is holding 1,658 tonnes of gold. That’s a jump of nearly 60% on 2009. By sheer size of stash, this makes China the fifth-biggest holder of gold in the world, overtaking Russia. (France, Italy, Germany and the US hold more, with the US holding the most)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Did A Major Gold And Silver Breakdown Just Begin?

Posted on 20 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In late-June, I wrote a piece called “Why You Should Watch This Giant Chart Pattern In Gold And Silver.” In this piece, I showed that gold and silver have been building a two year-old wedge pattern – a chart pattern that often leads to sharp moves in the direction of the breakout.
Since then, precious metals have fallen sharply due to the calming of Greece-related fears, the stronger U.S. dollar, and lower oil prices. The latest gold and silver breakdown brings the metals dangerously close to breaking down from the wedge patterns, so I will analyze them further in this piece………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Prices Headed to $2,000? Gruesome Supply and Solid Demand Say So

Posted on 17 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It can’t be stressed enough; gold prices are setting up to provide big gains to investors. Just pay attention to supply and demand; you will notice how the precious metal’s market is improving fundamentally. We have been tracking what’s happening in the major gold-producing regions closely. To say the least; conditions are getting outright worse. Producers aren’t producing the yellow metal.
Consider this; between 2013 and 2014, gold production from U.S. mines declined roughly eight percent. U.S. mines produced 212,000 kg of gold in 2014 compared to 230,000 kg in 2014. This year, it looks like the mine production from the U.S. will be much lower than the 2014 figures. For instance, in the first three months of 2015, U.S. mines have produced 47,700 kg of the yellow metal. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Not a great scenario for gold bugs

Posted on 17 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The dollar is rallying again and US borrowing costs — as measured by benchmark bond yields — are nudging to the top of their recent range. As we’ve mentioned before, that’s not a great scenario for gold. Because the main quote for the yellow metal is in dollars, the bullion price tends to fall as its cost is adjusted when the buck strengthens.
Gold is also seen by some as a competitor to the greenback, so the idea that the market wants dollars can mean investors see less need to shift out of fiat currency and into bullion. Higher interest rates increase the “opportunity cost” of holding the non-yielding metal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold is on the cusp of a ‘major breakdown’: Technician

Posted on 17 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold bugs simply can’t catch a break. After starting 2015 with a bang, bullion made a new year-to-date low this week as Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated plans to raise interest rates later this year. The precious metal is now more than 12 percent from its January high, and according to one technical analyst, it could be on the “cusp of a major breakdown.”
“I think we need to be prepared for what the biggest casualty of a rate hike could be, and that’s gold,” Todd Gordon said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” By Gordon’s chart work, gold has broken through a key trendline that’s been in place since 2001………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What Iran’s nuclear deal means for the oil price

Posted on 16 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices have recovered after initially plunging over the deal reached with Iran’s nuclear program, as analysts ponder the details and the roadblocks that remain in its implementation. Brent crude oil fell from $US58.70 a barrel to $US56.50, as the world pondered a torrent of Iranian oil flooding the market. But by Wednesday, prices were back up at $US58.70.
“The devil is in the detail,” said ANZ senior commodities strategist Daniel Hynes. “Initially the market sold off on it – I think it was down 2 per cent on the original announcement – but prices have recovered somewhat after the details emerged………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Look, Don’t Freak Out About Iranian Oil Flooding the Market

Posted on 16 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iranian oil will soon hit the global market, thanks to sanctions being lifted as part of the historic deal reached yesterday to regulate the country’s nuclear program. Some are suggesting that this will flood global markets with oil at a time when prices are already incredibly low (thanks, in part, to high production from the US and Saudi Arabia).
So, should you go out and buy a gas-guzzler and scrap your plans to save up for an electric car?Uh, no. To the extent that an increase in Iranian oil production will have an effect on the global price of gas, it will be slight and delayed.“Most of what is assumed can be delivered [from Iran] has already been priced into the market,” says Sarah Ladislaw, director of the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Price Forecast: Here’s Why Gold Prices Could Be Going a Lot Higher

Posted on 16 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Some people are saying that the yellow metal is losing its shine. They have a point, as gold prices have plunged quite dramatically during the past few years. However, we shouldn’t be too fixated on the current gold prices. They are a result of emotional trading, extreme speculation, and possible manipulation. Looking ahead, the fundamentals of gold will eventually be priced in.
Let’s look at inflation first. The money printing by the Federal Reserve was at unprecedented levels. Since the Great Recession started in 2008, the Fed has increased money supply by 67%, or more than $5.0 trillion! Intuition suggests that when more money is chasing the same basket of goods, each good is going to command a higher price. But why don’t we see it happening?……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Silver Pretty, Silver Ugly

Posted on 15 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The big picture in simple terms: US national debt is huge, ugly, unpayable, and accelerating higher. Silver Eagles are pretty and are priced low. Silver prices will increase erratically, driven higher by a devalued dollar, along with increasing debt.
Silver is currently at the low end of the silver to national debt ratio. Silver is currently at an 81 month cycle low………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Barclays Is Negative About Commodities in Q3.

Posted on 14 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Barclays see the greatest upside potential in the commodity area for Copper. In a research report revealed today, 12 July 2015, Barclays has shared its negative outlook for commodities in Q3. On April 20, Barclays announced plans to to exit most of its commodities activities which is in line with the negative expectations revealed.
Commodities revenue at the 10 largest banks fell 18 percent last year amid reduced volatility, Coalition, a London-based analytics company, said in February. At the same time, regulators are concerned that lenders might control prices if they both own and trade raw materials, or suffer losses that would endanger the financial system. Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Corp. are exiting some commodities activities, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are selling units………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price manipulation: Who really calls the tune?

Posted on 14 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Perhaps the question should be are precious metals prices manipulated – or indeed are all commodity prices manipulated? The answer to these questions, almost certainly, is a resounding yes. Virtually anything traded on an exchange of any kind is open to manipulation by those with deep enough pockets, or those prepared to take the risk of being bankrupted if massive trades on margins go wrong.
But gold is something of a special case as the principal accused manipulators of last resort are the gold establishment – central banks and governments supported by the bullion banks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is The Commitment Of Traders Report For Gold Really That Bullish?

Posted on 13 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Much has been made of a ‘record short position’ in precious metals held by the speculator trader category, but it may not be as bullish for price as many expect. I continue to believe that we have made a major high at $1232 in May, and can expect to see new lows in gold over the next few months. In the near term we should expect a brief short covering rally before the decline resumes.
Well I’m not quite sure whether to call last week’s forecast a win or a loss. We got a spike higher on the back of the Greek referendum as predicted, but the pop was muted (about 0.5%) and extremely short lived given that it sold off immediately and proceeded to make new local lows………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC’s silence is deafening

Posted on 10 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Well I see that the rest of the world is trying to hold its ground this morning, but it’s still America that has to lead. After the EIA stats, you’d think that OPEC would finally get the picture. It’s as clear as Justin Bieber’s boat picture and the longer they hold out on a production cut, the longer they look a lot like the highlight of that pic.
In the United States we’re continuing to support the OPEC oil portfolio by adjusting week to week who falls in favor and gets to the United States. Last week the Saudis (+286K b/d), Iraq (+102K) and finally Nigeria (27K) found their way into the refineries and pockets of U.S. consumers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold ETFs Fail The Volatility Test

Posted on 10 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In my experience as an investment advisor, gold bullion and other precious metals are often very polarizing asset classes to own. You either love gold because you’re worried about inflation, currency manipulation and market volatility, or you hate it because you have no idea when it actually works to hedge those themes.
Anyone who has been watching the price of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) over the past four years has seen the deflationary pressures this yellow metal has succumbed to. GLD peaked near $185 back in 2011 and is currently trading near its lowest levels of this bull market at $110. That represents a total decline from peak to present day of 40%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How much worse can the commodity bear market get?

Posted on 09 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

While the world worries about China, Europe worries about Greece and the UK worries about Osborne’s budget, today here at Money Morning we turn our heads to something more useful – industrial metals. Although at the moment, judging by their price, there aren’t so many who want to use them.
We’re talking copper, zinc, and iron… The commodity bear market is now in its fifth year. Yet it seems like only yesterday that we were in a commodity supercycle. Years of under-investment, a failure to make significant new discoveries, and insatiable Asian demand for raw materials meant that the price of any metal would just ‘go up’. Precious metal, industrial metal, rare earth metal – the market was indiscriminate………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Let commodities lead the way

Posted on 09 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

There are two ways to diversify an economy: by responding to markets or by bureaucratic mandate. Smart governments will look to how the market is contributing to diversification in Canadian industry.
Canada’s C-suite leaders, unfortunately, favour the bureaucratic mandate route, seeking more investment in the clusters of Toronto and Waterloo to drive more technology jobs. As recent history with BlackBerry (formerly RIM) has shown us, and before that Nortel, our country’s high-tech track record, so favoured by the diversify-by-decree set, is spotty at best………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What happened to gold’s safe-haven status?

Posted on 09 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Conspicuous by its absence in the commodity market turmoil of the last week has been the reaction in the gold price, say analysts who believe the metal has currently lost its safe-haven status. “One of the interesting developments despite the Greece crisis and China uncertainty has been the failure of any rally in gold prices. In fact, gold prices yesterday (July 7) flirted with their year lows,” said Goldman Sachs in a morning note to clients.
“This is an indication that even in a risk-off environment investors are not seeing gold as a safe-haven and rather prefer parking their money in US and German bonds and the US dollar,” the bank said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Markets hedge gold bet on US Fed

Posted on 08 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In 2011, when Europe was spiralling into crisis, gold soared, helped by the perception of US dollar “money printing” by the US Federal Reserve. Last weekend, Greek voters cleaved a serious schism in the eurozone facade, threatening the stability of the world’s second-biggest economic block. But instead of roaring higher, gold barely whimpered as it slipped to near five-year lows.
“The lack of influence that the euro crisis is having on gold is particularly noteworthy as the yellow metal continued its recent price decline, underlining again how gold’s main role in financial markets at present is as a proxy for the timing and likelihood of a Fed rate hike,” Barclays commodity strategists said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

In the maelstrom of oil price news, has bias triggered trading mistakes? Petrodollars

Posted on 07 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

How often did one read this year that the oil market is in terrible shape – weak, lackluster, oversupplied, bearish, limp? That there were sharp losses last year as prices collapsed, spiraled down, crashed? Most of the words used to describe oil getting cheaper had a negative connotation.
To any casual observer or consumer of oil, however, the market could be seen in wonderful shape with pump prices more accessible than before. A commodity that is being produced in a far greater quantity than can be consumed has seen its price go down. So is there a bias in oil journalism focusing more on the potential gains or losses to producers or those “long” oil? A significant place to look is the trend of long-only investors pouring into oil futures contracts in various forms, which began in the mid-2000s………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is Gold going to Crash?

Posted on 07 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The price of gold – in terms of U.S. dollars – has certainly struggled since 2011. The price is currently under $1,200. Just when it shows signs of a promising run above $1,200, it falls back down. Mining stocks have been even worse. They have been beaten down quite a bit over the last several years. It seems that almost nobody wants to touch them at this point.
A recent article at Forbes discusses the weakness in gold and why it should crash another 40% or more, which would send the metal down to $700 per ounce. The author lists five reasons on why the gold price should fall further from its 2011 highs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A not very golden crisis

Posted on 07 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Here’s a puzzle. Neither the Chinese stock slide or the Greek ‘no’ vote are having much of an effect on the gold price — odd given that the goldbug narrative that gold always performs well in a crisis: In fact, looking at the 10-day performance, the trend is distinctly to the down side: What gives?
Barclays’ Suki Cooper has an interesting view (our emphasis): The failure of gold to appreciate given global macroeconomic uncertainty may seem puzzling initially but is explainable. Over the past few weeks, as the Greek crisis reached a climax, gold prices failed to appreciate in any meaningful way, continuing their downward trend since crossing $1,300/oz in late January………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Opportunity In Commodities In Response To Greek Referendum

Posted on 06 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With the Greeks voting on Sunday on whether to accept creditor proposals and another bailout, the commodity markets are likely to fall either way. When the 2010 bailout was approved, commodities fell and gold rose. The same could happen this time if the Greeks vote Yes on accepting another bailout. If they vote No, Grexit becomes more likely, making the commodity decline more protracted.
A resolution to the situation in Greece - or lack thereof - has long been at the forefront of financial media reporting. So much so, that we are now seeing markets turning somewhat dissolute towards the outcome of the situation, and we have ended up with two distinct groups - one that stands firmly behind the idea that Greece is an individual unit and - as a result - the rest of the global economy is relatively insulated from any potential exit from the Eurozone………………………………………..Full Article: Source

‘New normal’ in Australia commodities – low prices and strong volumes

Posted on 03 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The big picture is that Australia is receiving less money for its commodity exports, with the value dropping 11 per cent to A$174 billion (US$133.8 billion) in the 2014-15 fiscal year. “New normal” is a term coined about China’s transition to slower but hopefully more sustainable economic growth, but it can be equally applied to many commodity markets.
This reality was well illustrated by the Australian government’s latest set of forecasts for the country’s commodity exports, which highlighted we are now in an era of low prices but strong volumes. Australia’s official forecasts carry weight because the country is the world’s largest exporter of iron ore and metallurgical coal, and will become number one in liquefied natural gas (LNG) within the next few years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is Silver a Good Investment Today?

Posted on 03 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With silver prices flat for the year, is silver a good investment to make right now? Silver has not performed nearly as well as its high-flying days of 2009-2011, when it quadrupled in price. But that doesn’t mean the metal doesn’t have value to your portfolio. Let’s delve into some relevant aspects of the silver market to determine whether now is a good time to invest in silver.
You can see the price bottoming around $15.25 in November, then after a spike to $19.25, dropping back to around $15.50 in March. We can also distinguish a rising trend channel that seems to be establishing itself (green lines). As for the 50-day moving average, it looks like it has stabilized, bouncing around the $16.50 level. Consider, though, that the 200-day moving average is still trending downward………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Greece default: Why isn’t gold budging?

Posted on 02 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold’s stubborn non-reaction to Greece’s default on its crucial 1.5 billion euro repayment ($1.7 billion) to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) couldn’t be more disappointing to bullion bugs. The yellow metal reversed slight gains to trade around 0.3 percent lower at $1,169 on Wednesday, despite heightened uncertainty around the fate of the heavily-indebted nation.
So, why isn’t the yellow metal catching a safe-haven bid? Here’s what commodities analysts are chalking it up to, in their own words: First off, investors expect the Greek crisis will be contained. Victor Thianpiruiyam, commodity strategist at ANZ: “The market seems a little more confident with the situation now. There seem to be reassurances from euro zone officials that the contagion risk from Greece will be relatively small if any at all………………………………………..Full Article: Source

UBS Asks, ‘Is Gold Ignoring Greece?’

Posted on 02 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

UBS strategist Edel Tully wondered why gold seemed to be so disconnected from the Greek crisis. He noted that “developments in Greece don’t seem to be impacting gold in any meaningful way,” at least relative to “how the market has reacted in the past.”
Typically, gold receives a boost from financial uncertainty, as wary savers seek to transfer their wealth to a more secure commodity. But Tully said that this effect has been dampened in recent years. He attributed this trend to “headline fatigue” resulting from heavy coverage of the Greek drama. He said, “the threshold for bad news is higher and it will probably take a lot more to trigger a significant wave of gold safe haven buying.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

BP’s chief economist sees U.S. shale weathering oil surplus

Posted on 01 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Shale output in the United States will prove resilient to low oil prices likely to be prolonged by the prospect of half a million barrels per day of Iranian crude making its way back to the market, BP’s chief economist said on Tuesday.
Talks in Vienna between world powers trying to end sanctions on Tehran in return for limits on Iran’s most sensitive nuclear activities could bring a significant increase in Iranian oil exports. BP’s Spencer Dale, however, told Reuters that it would probably take time for any easing of sanctions to filter through to oil markets if an Iran deal is agreed………………………………………..Full Article: Source

All Signs Point To Higher Gold Prices

Posted on 01 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the face of historic monetary stimulus from nearly every major central bank in the world over the past few years, an investment in gold would have seemed to be a “no-brainer.” Yet the precious metal’s price, around $1,178 per ounce, has barely budged. Now may be the time to give gold a fresh look. Fundamental drivers appear in place for long-term upside, and technical support could provide a near-term catalyst.
Moreover, shares of gold mining companies are selling at steep discounts to historical multiples and the slightest hint of stabilization could bring investors back in a big way. A confirmation of fundamentals for gold prices would send gold mining shares soaring………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China targets counterweight in gold trade with yuan fix

Posted on 01 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A decade after China kicked off a series of gold market reforms, plans to establish a yuan price fix mark one of Beijing’s biggest step so far to capitalise on the country’s position as the world’s top producer and a leading consumer.
While no immediate threat to the gold pricing dominance of London and New York, the benchmark could ultimately give Asia more power over bullion trade, particularly if the yuan becomes fully convertible, industry sources say. The yuan fix is due to launch by the end of 2015 via the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), which last year allowed foreign players to trade gold using offshore yuan………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Drop as Greek Turmoil Spurs Concern Demand Will Wane

Posted on 30 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities fell the most in a week on concern that Greece’s deepening financial crisis will threaten global economic growth and demand for energy and metals. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials lost as much as 0.9 percent, the most since June 19. Energy products and industrial metals led declines, with crude oil dropping to a three-week low and nickel slumping to the lowest since 2009.
Greece shut its banks and imposed capital controls in a bid to avert the collapse of its financial system, increasing the risk that it will be forced out of the euro. After failing to reach a deal with creditors, the country will vote in a July 5 referendum on proposals needed to restore bailout aid………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price suggests investors not betting on Grexit

Posted on 30 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Ultimate safe-haven asset fades after brief rally, as investors dismiss possibility of Greek exit from eurozone. A gold rush has failed to materialise as Greece edges closer to total financial collapse, suggesting investors aren’t betting on an imminent ‘Grexit’.
A brief rally in the precious metal in early trading faded towards the close in London, as investors discounted the possibility of Greece exiting the currency bloc, despite the government’s shut-down of the country’s banks and stock market. Gold – which is traditionally seen by markets as the ultimate safe-haven asset – initially gained 2.5pc, but by the afternoon in London it had fallen back to a level of $1,176 per ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Jim Rogers Gold Correction Forecast

Posted on 30 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A Jim Rogers gold prediction is taken seriously by investors. And today (Friday) we got a fresh Jim Rogers gold prediction courtesy of a MarketWatch interview. “Gold is in a correction, and the correction has gone on for four years,” Rogers said.
“Although I am not buying gold, I am expecting an opportunity to buy gold sometime in the next year or two. For instance, if gold goes under $1,000, I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot more gold.” When Jim Rogers speaks, he is taken seriously by investors – and for good reason………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How Asia avoided a commodity crisis

Posted on 29 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Edmund Harriss, manager of the Guinness Asian Equity Income fund, says Asian countries have proved resilient to recent financial and commodity crises by becoming integrated manufacturing hubs that are not dependent on commodities
The BRIC economies have been a popular investment concept, but the economies of Brazil and Russia have proved too dependent on commodities. This was to their advantage as prices rose, especially during the China investment boom, but as this slowed, falling commodity prices left their economies cruelly exposed. Both notably failed to broaden their industrial bases in the good times. Their currencies have now weakened and both are struggling with recession and inflation………………………………………..Full Article: Source

One of Indonesia’s Richest Men Is Bullish on Commodity Processing

Posted on 29 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As the head of one of Indonesia’s largest investment companies, Peter Sondakh knows to follow market trends. It’s the reason he took up smoking cigars last year, he says, beneath the whir of air purifiers in his office. It’s also, he says, partly why he’s selling off stakes in his palm oil plantation – Indonesia’s third largest – in the hope of moving toward processing, refining and trading at a time when slumping commodity prices and weakened demand for raw materials from China have dented the economy.
“I pride myself in adding value,” said Mr. Sondakh, whose PT Rajawali Corp. is one of Indonesia’s biggest conglomerates with investments in mining, property, plantations and media. “Added value products will have more profit.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Here’s why gold will rally: RBC’s Gero

Posted on 26 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is in the midst of its longest losing streak since March, but one noted gold bug claims the selling could soon abate. “I’m probably one of the few people that believe there are too many bears in the woods,” metals strategist George Gero said.”
Gold closed Thursday’s session at $1,172.20 an ounce, its lowest level since June 5, but despite the selloff, Gero insists the precious metal is oversold. Gero attributed gold’s recent demise to a healthy stock market, strong dollar, uncertainty over a Fed rate hike and unrest in Greece………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Market Suppression: An Investor’s Perspective

Posted on 26 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold price suppression results from central bankers’ desire to keep interest rates low. I provide an overview of the gold price suppression thesis as a statistical certainty and as continuous with post Bretton Woods history. While the topic of gold price suppression is commonly written about investment implications are rarely discussed.
We want to emphasize well run, low opex miners as positioned to withstand price weakness and to leverage price strength. The potential for a rapid revaluation of gold makes companies with low valuation to gold reserves ratios attractive as high risk/high reward speculation stocks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil At $60: How Marginal Producers Cope Will Shape Market Direction

Posted on 24 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As we approach the midway point of the current trading year, it has become apparent that oil benchmarks would find it hard to escape the $50-$75 per barrel range for the rest of the year, and much of 2016. Macroeconomics of the day also does not point to a dip below $50 barring the occurrence of an unforeseen financial tsunami.
As most producers are looking at non-OECD markets to export to, and demand there is holding up, if not firing on all cylinders, a steep price drop is highly unlikely. Atop the much asserted claim of too much oil coming on the market – in the region of 1.1 to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by some accounts – each time there is minor uptick in price, a swift downward correction follows suit. Trading in recent weeks offers ample proof of this………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is Gold Actually Just Another Commodity?

Posted on 24 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is widely viewed as among the best hedges against inflation. It rose dramatically from $287 an ounce on September 11, 2001 to a record high of $1,895 during September 6, 2011. It’s down 37% since then. Gold bugs figured that the war on terror would widen government deficits and that central banks would help by keeping credit conditions loose.
The financial crisis of 2008 unleashed the major central banks to experiment with various forms of ultra-easy monetary policy including NZIRP and QE. Yet inflation remained subdued. The price of gold seemed to break when gold bugs were disappointed by the metal’s failure to rally on Abenomics, specifically the latest round of extremely easy money from the BOJ. So they started to sell………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Still Hasn’t Found the Right Level for Investors, Trader Says

Posted on 24 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold bulls had a rough start to the week as the yellow metal has been selling off due to the strength of the U.S. dollar and signs that Greece is nearing a deal with creditors. For most of 2015, gold has been trading in a range around $1,200, struggling to find conviction to the upside or downside as fundamentals are trumped by speculation of an interest-rate hike and Greece’s ability to pay debt.
It has mostly been more of a technical trade. Commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, so as the greenback moves higher, instruments like oil and gold generally move lower, and the inverse applies due to the strong correlation in the moves. Commodities move on other fundamentals such as supply and demand in addition to the U.S. dollar………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Do not see oil prices going beyond $80-85: CEA Arvind Subramanian

Posted on 23 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian today said he does not see oil prices going beyond 80 to 85 dollars, a price which will help India manage its macro economy reasonably.
“… yes oil prices could go up, but given the fundamental changes (in the market), the likelihood of it (oil price) going up to anywhere beyond 80 or 85 dollars I (think) relatively (should be) ignored and as long as oil prices stay, don’t go beyond that I think we can manage our macro economy reasonably,” he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

New Gold Forecast Shows Bullish News for Prices

Posted on 22 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Our gold forecast for the rest of 2015 shows three big factors affecting the direction of the yellow metal. First, let’s look at where gold prices are now. After hitting a four-week high Thursday, the gold price paused in early trading Friday. At last check, the yellow metal was up $0.80 at $1,202.80 an ounce.
After trading as high as $1,207.00 an ounce, gold ended Thursday’s U.S. session up $24.50, or 2.08%, at $1,201.40. Thursday’s gain in the gold price put the precious metal back in positive territory for the year. The yellow metal is up 1.5% year to date………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold is surely headed to $25,000, but maybe not until next century

Posted on 18 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold most definitely is headed to $25,000 an ounce. The question is when? How about 103 years — not until 2118, in other words? Peculiar as that sounds, it actually rests on a strong historical foundation: You just need to assume that gold over the (very) long term will maintain its purchasing power against inflation (which it has over past centuries), and that inflation in the future will be 3% a year (its U.S. average over the past century).
Do you think inflation will be higher than 3% per year? Be my guest — see what you come up with. The table below shows, for each of several possible inflation rates, how many years it would take for gold to reach $25,000………………………………………..Full Article: Source

5 little-known facts about commodities

Posted on 17 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Regardless of what you think about commodities futures, you’re probably wrong. That’s because commodities are one of the most misunderstood asset classes in the entire investment arena. And that’s really saying something, since there is considerable misunderstanding about other asset classes as well.
One reason there’s been so much misunderstanding about commodities futures is that, until now, long-term historical data were unavailable. So analysts were largely shooting in the dark when trying to draw statistically robust conclusions about those contracts’ behavior………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The future of Greece and gold

Posted on 16 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What are the possible scenarios for Greece and what do they imply for the gold market? The base-case scenario is that a bailout deal will be reached in coming days since no one wants the Grexit. Without the agreement, Greece would lose access to its external funding (like current bailouts funds, Eurozone’s crisis fund, IMF’s support or ECB’s Emergency Liquidity Assistance), whilst creditors risk Greece’s default, financial contagion and the loss of the euro’s prestige.
However, both sides took tough positions, since Syriza does not want to disappoint its voters and does not believe in austerity policy, especially during recession, while creditors believe that the Eurozone is immune to possible Grexit………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Hank Paulson says China risks ‘real damage’ to economy

Posted on 15 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Chinese government risks “real damage” to the economy if it does not hasten reform of China’s state-owned enterprises and overhaul a debt-fuelled growth model, Hank Paulson has warned. For more than two decades the former US Treasury secretary and Goldman Sachs chief has worked closely with pivotal Chinese political figures such as Wang Qishan, currently head of the Chinese Communist party’s anti-graft bureau, and visits Beijing frequently.
“Until the state-owned enterprises are put on a level and competitive playing field, it’s going to be difficult to have the marketplace work efficiently in some key sectors of the economy,” Mr Paulson told the Financial Times during a visit to the Chinese capital. “Reform of the SOEs has been moving too slowly.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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