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Bullion no more the sole attraction on Akshay Tritiya

Posted on 23 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Akshay Tritiya on Tuesday sent the cash registers ringing at city jewellery shops, which registered a 30-35% increase in business as compared to the festival last year. However, buyers’ preference for jewellery over bullion pointed to a shift in the trend seen in the last few years.
“This Akshay Tritiya, business across the city surpassed expectations and overall sentiment was positive,” said Fatehchand Ranka, president of the Pune Saraf Association. As Akshay Tritiya is one of the days considered to be auspicious to buy gold, many people plan in advance to make their purchases on this day every year……………………………………Full Article: Source

Gold loses its silver lining on Akshaya Tritiya, price drops on global cues

Posted on 22 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices fell by Rs 100 to close at Rs 27,100 per 10 grams at the bullion market today as the auspicious ‘Akshaya Tritiya’ festival failed to generate any substantial buying activity for the precious metal amid a weak global trend.
Silver also dropped Rs 560 to Rs 36,440 per kg on reduced offtake by industrial units and coin makers. Traders said apart from a weak trend in overseas markets as investors weighed a rally in equities and the dollar in the absence of any significant buying by jewellers, led to decline in gold prices. Globally, gold in Singapore, which normally sets price trend on the domestic front, fell by 0.3 per cent to USD 1,192.29 an ounce…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is It a Good Idea to Buy Gold on Akshaya Tritiya?

Posted on 22 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

India on Tuesday marks Akshaya Tritiya – a day considered as an auspicious time to buy gold. But is it? Sales of gold and silver usually shoot up every year on Akshaya Tritiya that usually falls in late April or early May and around which the World Gold Council has focused major marketing efforts in recent years.
Akshaya means – “that which never diminishes,” and Tritiya — derived from the Sanskrit root for “three”— specifies when in the lunar calendar it falls. India is the world’s largest consumer of gold; the metal is a common gift during festivals, religious events and weddings. So having a day defined as golden for gold buying is enough to tempt many buyers…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Don’t buy gold on Akshaya Tritiya

Posted on 20 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

This year, clients of Bengaluru-based financial planner Anil Rego have not yet asked him for advice on whether they should buy gold on Akshaya Tritiya. Given Indians’ general love for gold, this lack of interest might seem surprising as the festival, on the coming Tuesday, is considered an auspicious occasion to buy gold. Or, maybe not, given how returns from gold have fallen over the past couple of years.
“Gold should be part of your asset allocation. While equities will always do better than gold in the long run, having gold along with equities will reduce the risk in your portfolio and improve the returns,” Rego says……………………………………Full Article: Source

Are Low-Risk High-Yield Investments Real?

Posted on 16 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The low-risk, high-yield investment—it’s the Holy Grail of finance, or perhaps more aptly, the perpetual motion machine. One that rewards its holder out of proportion to the danger of holding it. But is there indeed such a thing as a vehicle that can combine the returns of a Lotto ticket with the safety of a Series I savings bond?
As a rule, the correlation between risk and reward in the market is almost perfectly positive. Common sense or a few seconds’ rumination should show you why that’s the case, but here’s an explanation anyway. The more people desire an investment because of its expected returns, the greater the demand, and thus the higher its price goes………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Next commodity boom a generation away, says Deltec

Posted on 15 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The next commodities boom is “a generation away” for some key raw materials, and it is the commodity economies – such as Australia – that will provide the more compelling tactical opportunities to go short as the bubble deflates.
That is the view of Atul Lele, chief investment officer at Deltec, the private bank and wealth manager, who takes a negative view toward iron ore and the industrial metals but remains favourable on agricultural commodities. Even taking a long-term view, “all commodities are expensive”, he says. Iron ore had no credible prospect of a rebound in either the short or medium term, a blow for Australia’s materials sector, he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why prefer commodities over commodity manufacturers

Posted on 14 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Owning commodities allow investors to take exposure to the commodity he has a view on. Investing in shares of commodity manufacturing companies lead to exposure to many factors such as broader equity market sentiment, company fundamentals.
Investors often face the difficult choice – to buy gold or a gold miner, or to buy aluminum or aluminum manufacturing companies. Put simply, they have to make the difficult choice between a commodity and the commodity manufacturer. The decision requires a detailed look at both the investment options………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Bulls Boost Wagers by Most Since 2010 as Output Seen Peaking

Posted on 14 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Speculators increased bullish oil bets by the most in more than four years, wagering that the U.S. production boom is slowing. Hedge funds boosted net-long positions on West Texas Intermediate crude by 30 percent in the seven days ended April 7, the biggest jump since October 2010, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
Long bets rose to a nine-month high, while shorts tumbled 21 percent. U.S. crude output and inventories may peak this month amid a record drop in rigs exploring for oil, Goldman Sachs Group said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Who’s winning the oil battle: OPEC or the United States?

Posted on 14 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s been more than four months since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries put global oil prices into a virtual free-fall when it decided at its semi-annual meeting in Vienna to not cut production. That has put a tremendous amount of pressure on what’s been called the shale oil revolution in North America and in the United States in particular.
Who’s winning so far? Well, that seems like trying to read tea leaves in a barrel of crude. “I think it’s two freight trains running at each other,” said Chris Faulkner, CEO at Dallas-based Brietling Energy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Mark Mobius’ top conviction: Buy commodities

Posted on 09 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

While the price outlook for many commodities remains bleak, veteran investor Mark Mobius recommends positioning for a recovery in the beleaguered asset class. “Right now it’s commodities believe it or not, they are so far out of favor,” Mobius, executive chairman at Templeton Emerging Markets Group, told CNBC when asked what his top conviction call was.
“No one knows what’s going to happen next in terms of the military situation in the Middle East, so oil is something you’ve got to watch. I think there will be a recovery,” he added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

There’s still no hope for the gold market

Posted on 09 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The gold market is still resting on a shaky foundation of sentiment. You may recall that this is the same conclusion I reached a month ago. And, just as contrarian analysis concluded then, gold has not since mounted a rally. Though there has been a lot of volatility — including an $18 rise on Monday and a $7 decline on Tuesday — gold today is barely changed from where it stood in early March.
And, yet, the average short-term gold timer monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest is more bullish today than then. As a result, contrarian analysis is even less bullish on gold today than it was a month ago………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC … Your Days are Numbered

Posted on 08 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil jumped this week to its highest price since mid-February. Is the energy sector’s worst pain over? “Don’t count on it,” says Goldman Sachs (GS). They say oil prices can’t rise much until oil production shrinks — which will take months, maybe years. OPEC’s monopoly isn’t so valuable anymore. In fact, it isn’t even a monopoly. The sun is setting on OPEC.
Say what you will about Goldman Sachs; they’ve been mostly right about oil prices lately. Their analysts forecasted $75 oil last October, weeks before the big drop. Goldman’s only mistake was being too optimistic………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Who’s to Blame for the Oil Price Crash?

Posted on 07 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

When we think of the recent drop in oil prices , the question is not only who started it, but who’s responsible for keeping the prices falling. Probably no one would dispute that the price plunge began with the eager and copious production of oil from shale formations in the United States. From the American perspective, that was beneficial because it was bringing energy self-sufficiency to a country with the reputation as the world’s largest importer of oil.
Despite unproven concerns about hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a common way to extract oil and gas from underground shale rock, the practice has proven extremely productive. And that’s the source of the oil glut that began driving down prices in late June 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gartman: Gold is going higher

Posted on 07 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices climbed to their highest level in more than six weeks on Monday on the back of Friday’s disappointing jobs number, which sent the dollar index lower and left traders searching for safety. According to Dennis Gartman of “The Gartman Letter,” the move higher in gold could just be getting started.
The Dow Jones industrial average finished higher by triple digits on Monday after opening the session down by more than 115 points. The day’s volatility marked the fourth session this year in which the Dow was both up and down by triple digits in the same day. Gold prices held relatively steady throughout the session, maintaining gains as the equity markets turned positive………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China Will Keep a Lid on Most Commodities

Posted on 02 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Looser credit conditions or fiscal stimulus may temporarily boost China’s demand for coal, copper and iron ore, but the bounce would be fleeting. Mined commodity prices are unlikely to recover from recent lows, as China’s structural economic transition diminishes the main source of global demand growth.
Falling input costs and global overcapacity have reshaped the global steel industry: Prices will be lower for longer Weak crop prices and low farmer incomes are a significant headwind for fertiliser and seed companies, but we don’t expect the breeze will be too strong……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Goldman Sachs warns that peak gold may happen in 2015

Posted on 02 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman warns that peak gold may happen in 2015. New report says there are only “20 years of known mineable reserves of gold”. Discoveries of new sources of gold production peaked in 1995 despite major bull market .
Production lags new finds in 20 year cycle – Indicates 2015 may be year of peak gold production. Production in major gold mining countries has dropped in recent years. This will provide support and should lead to higher prices in long term. For many years, we have written about ‘peak gold’ and the ramifications of the underappreciated peak gold phenomenon for the gold market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities are going lower—here’s my play: Trader

Posted on 02 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A strong dollar sent global commodity prices plunging in the past year. And one currency trader is setting himself up to profit from further declines. “We expect the uptrend in the U.S. dollar to continue,” said TradingAnalysis.com founder Todd Gordon on Wednesday’s “Trading Nation.” The dollar has already surged more than 22 percent in the last 52 weeks.
So, in order to play for further upside in the greenback, and downside in commodities, Gordon looked to the land Down Under: Australia. Specifically Gordon targeted, the FXA, the Australian dollar ETF, which is down more than 17 percent in the past 12 months………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Time for commodities to outperform equities: Jodie Gunzberg

Posted on 01 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

21 of 24 commodities lost in FY15 with the flagship indices, S&P GSCI and Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI), losing 39.5 per cent and 25.9 per cent, respectively. In the past quarter, six commodities are positive: silver, cotton, gasoil, unleaded gasoline, gold, and feeder cattle. In the past month, one-third of commodities are in backwardation, measuring shortages that could be supportive for silver, copper, live cattle, feeder cattle, Kansas wheat, unleaded gasoline, heating oil and gasoil.
This highlights the positive impact of falling oil prices on the petroleum commodities that use crude oil as an input. Each commodity has its own supply and demand model so is impacted by different factors from weather to geopolitical risk. Rising interest rates, Chinese demand from stockpiling, and the possibility of rising oil prices may support commodities this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver’s outperformance versus gold to stay: Capital Economics

Posted on 31 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

According to senior analysts at Capital Economics, Silver has risen 8% in dollar terms year-to-date in 2015. During the same period, gold has appreciated only by 1%. This outperformance by silver is expected to continue in 2015 and 2016, noted Julian Jessop, Head of Commodities Research at the London-based economic research consultancy.
Gold had witnessed continuous upward journey for seven days in a row. However, the geopolitical tensions surrounding Saudi attack on Yemen, worries over Greece debt situation and the shaky US dollar had resulted in sharp rise in gold prices. However, the prices of the yellow metals settled under the $1,200 per Oz on account of strong profit booking. Overall, gold prices ended higher during the week……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities: Come Together

Posted on 26 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Cartels have been making a comeback—if in word rather than deed. On Wednesday, Australia’s competition regulator said it had called on Andrew Forrest, chairman of Fortescue Metals, to explain comments he made at a dinner reportedly saying iron-ore miners should cap production to support sagging prices. Fortescue says Mr. Forrest was merely highlighting the damage being done to shareholders, Australia, and consumers by the iron-ore industry’s “last-man-standing fight for market share.”
Consumers, at least, rarely suffer from low prices. Regardless, Mr. Forrest’s words reflect the desperation of a company and industry that, as usual in commodity cycles, invested enormously to boost supply in good times only to suffer as demand failed to match expectations. Fortescue last week pulled a $2.5 billion bond offering, the single biggest withdrawn deal since the financial crisis, according to S&P Capital IQ LCD………………………………………..Full Article: Source

SocGen’s ultra bearish gold and silver outlook

Posted on 26 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Analysts at the French Bank Societe Generale (SocGen) in their latest research report have forecast that the gold price, having given away all its early year gains, was headed sharply lower, as it saw the dollar continue its gain in strength. They thus expected the bear market in gold to continue further and saw the price as falling to average only $925 an ounce between 2016 and 2019.
The timing of this report was perhaps unfortunate in that the forecast for a virtually immediate downturn in gold, together with dollar strength, predated the events of the past few days, which has seen the reverse occur. Gold bulls will be fervently hoping that the bank’s analysts are equally incorrect in their forecast of gold’s longer-term prospects………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is This the Bottom for Commodities?

Posted on 25 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

All the overnight action was in the currency markets. The Fed’s decision to delay interest rates rises is having a major impact on the flow of global capital. The Aussie dollar had a massive session, finishing at 78.95 US cents.
As I explained last week, traders got caught out by the Fed’s ultra-mega dovishness. They had positioned for the start of US interest rate ‘normalisation’…then the Fed wavered. As a result, the US dollar is now in correction mode as these bets are unwound. The Aussie dollar, commodity currencies and commodities more generally are all beneficiaries of this current unwind. The question is, how long will it run?……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Is gold finally ready to rebound?

Posted on 19 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Analyst Jim Bianco argues that gold may have already reached its bottom. There are few more polarizing topics in the world of investing than gold. The shiny metal, which for centuries was the basis of the global monetary system, is beloved particularly by investors whose political beliefs tilt libertarian.
These are the sort of people who are convinced of the incompetence of political leaders and central banks that now run a monetary system based on floating exchange rates rather than the value of hard metals. Gold enthusiasts had their moment in the sun during the 2000s, when the combination of rising deficits and a sharply falling dollar helped give the precious metal its best stretch since the inflation-racked 1970s and 1980s………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A simple test to see if gold is at a bottom

Posted on 18 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What is the range you expect for gold in 2015? The 200-day moving average right now is $1,244/oz. If gold can break above that, I think it would gather strength and surprise people on the upside. Seeing as how so many people are betting the other direction, I think you’d have a lot of short covering. So $1,400/oz or $1,500/oz wouldn’t surprise me.
The magic number on silver is $18/oz. The 200-day average on the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), an exchange-traded fund, is roughly $17.29/oz. If silver closes above $18/oz, that will be a strong signal that it has changed its colors. For both gold and silver, the moving average keeps coming down, so it gets easier to surpass it………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will Gold Follow Oil and Fall Back Under $1,000?

Posted on 18 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The drop in the price of oil has been monumental, and the oil and gas sector is starting to prepare for some much leaner times ahead. The question to ask is what really lies ahead in the larger picture, outside of oil. With the dollar rallying and with economic numbers slowing, what are the odds that gold takes a dive like oil did? Also, how correlated should the two assets be today versus in the past?
Knowing an answer here may require a crystal ball. Still, investors and speculators should start to consider whether gold could or would take on the same sort of sentiment as oil………………………………………..Full Article: Source

One key reason why oil prices may have further to fall

Posted on 17 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude prices may be in a holding pattern for the time being, but the conditions under which they appear to have stabilized are anything but reassuring. Despite a saturated world market, North American production, whether it’s bitumen from Alberta’s oil sands or light oil from North Dakota or Texas, continues to increase. So why haven’t prices, in the face of all this supply, continued to fall?
The answer is storage or, more precisely, the record amount of oil that’s being poured into U.S. storage tanks and salt caverns, despite inventory levels that are already at all-time highs. Putting oil into storage is attractive to oil companies right now for two reasons. First, it effectively takes excess oil out of an already glutted market, which alleviates downward pressure on spot prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Don’t rush to buy gold; yellow metal likely to weaken in coming months

Posted on 17 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The yellow metal is on a slide. After hitting a high of $1,297 a troy ounce on 21 January 2015, international gold prices have fallen by 10% to $1,164 per troy ounce now. The price fall in the domestic gold market has been to the tune of 7% over the same period. So should you buy now or wait for Akshaya Tritiya, which is seen as an auspicious day to buy gold in India?
According to most experts we spoke to, you should wait. The bear market in gold has resumed and prices will not move up anytime soon. “With no fundamental factors supporting prices, international gold may fall more to breach the recent record low price of $1,143,” says Praveen Singh, Senior Commodities Analyst, Sharekhan………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Sugar - A Sweet Commodity; A Sour Market

Posted on 17 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Historically, sugar is one of the most volatile commodities that trades on futures exchanges. However, volatility in the sweet commodity has fallen to historically low levels and has remained there since 2013. Sugar has been in a bear market since it made highs of more than 36 cents per pound in 2011.
Last week the sugar price continued to weaken. There are many reasons for a falling sugar price including a strong U.S. dollar, a global surplus of sugar and a bear market in raw material prices that started in 2011. However, now sugar has fallen to a critical level and the prospects do not appear to be too sweet………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Decline Near ‘Exhaustion’ as Hackett Says Buy Rice

Posted on 16 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The commodities fall is near “exhaustion” with wheat, rice and coffee set to rebound, according to Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors in Florida. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials closed on Friday at the lowest level since August 2002, capping an almost 30 percent decline in the past year.
Wheat dropped 25 percent in the past 12 months and rice fell 30 percent. Arabica coffee slipped 37 percent as Brazil’s weak real currency encouraged exports, adding to supplies. “For speculators wheat and rice are the two markets that are the ones to buy given that both have the lowest supplies relative to global demand,” Hackett said in an e-mailed report on Saturday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

All That Glitters Is Not Gold Anymore

Posted on 16 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The old saying that ‘All that glitters, is not gold’ is becoming a reality in the global economy. Gold rates nosedived again Friday, March 13 after losing out on the gains made during the early morning trading. This is the tenth consecutive day of trading when gold has recorded huge losses. It is also its longest loss making run in the past four decades. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has been appreciating.
Friday, spot gold prices climbed at the beginning of trading. However, it went spiralling down by 0.1 percent and closed at $1,152.26 per ounce of gold by the end of day. This is equivalent to the stretch of losses gold stocks recorded in the month of August 1973. Gold prices back then recorded a fall for ten consecutive days. The price of the U.S. gold for the month of April 2015 remained untouched and it was valued at $1,151.30 per ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold And Silver - When Will Precious Metals Rally? Not In 2015

Posted on 16 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

If one addresses what is going on between China and the IMF, while keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve’s fiat debt instrument, incorrectly called the “dollar,” then the likelihood of a significant rally in gold and silver may not develop this year. Those believing the fiat “dollar” is on its currency deathbed and about to implode to its true intrinsic worth, zero, are not paying enough attention to realize that the elite’s are still in control while in the process of merely switching horses: to China from the US.
Call them any number of names but the elites are not stupid, and they are not about to change horses mid-stream, as it were. There are a few developments in the works that need to come to fruition before any significant “reset” in Precious Metals valuation upwards may occur………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Top forecaster tips gold slump to $US1100 this year

Posted on 13 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Forget Mario Draghi and the Chinese aunties. The only thing that matters for gold is the Federal Reserve and that spells trouble for prices, according to the most-accurate bullion forecaster over the past two years.
With the Fed indicating it will raise US interest rates for the first time since 2006 as the world’s biggest economy recovers, bullion will post its third straight annual drop, said Artur Passos, who produces the metals outlook at Itau Unibanco Holding, Latin America’s biggest bank by market value. Passos, part of a research group led by former central banker Ilan Goldfajn, was the most-accurate among 20 forecasters, data compiled by Bloomberg Rankings show………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Case Against Commodities

Posted on 12 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices can go up, and they can go down. But while volatility is an expected part of investing, the volatility associated with commodities in particular makes this asset class a poor investment for most investors. That’s true whether they’re held in physical form (gold coins) or through vehicles like exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Commodities are fundamentally different from investments like stocks and bonds. Stocks and bonds are financial assets, representing ownership or debt of businesses, respectively, whereas commodities are typically raw materials, such as oil, gold, copper, and corn………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Apple Watch wont save the gold price

Posted on 12 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

If we believe the hype, everything from fitness, time pieces, messaging and payments are about to be disrupted by the launch of the Apple Watch. One area many would have deemed safe from the device is the old fashioned gold business.
Yet gold bugs are alight with hopes that Apple will transform the gold business as well. Soon after Apple announced a launch date for the ultra exclusive Apple Watch Edition – the gold one – the internet flourished with speculation gold demand would rise as a result………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How to read the changing signals from China’s metals trade: Andy Home

Posted on 12 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China will be the key determinant of industrial metal prices this year. Nothing new there then. The country has played the starring role in the sector for many years, thanks to its stellar contribution to global demand growth for everything from aluminium to zinc.
What has changed over the last couple of years, though, is the country’s own surging output of refined metals following years of production capacity growth. In the aluminium market, for instance, what China imports from the rest of the world is far less significant for prices than what it exports………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver marks record imports in 2014

Posted on 11 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver usually keeps its sheen even when gold prices drop. However, in the past two years, silver prices have fallen sharply compared with the yellow metal. Traders have used this as an opportunity to stock up silver. In 2014, silver imports reached a record high of 6,842 tonnes, an 18 per cent increase over the previous year, according to GFMS Thomson Reuters data.
In value, however, the import bill fell, owing to the decline in silver prices. Silver imports in 2014 were worth $3.46 billion compared with $3.64 billion in the previous year. Silver prices fell 24 per cent in 2013 and another 15 per cent in 2014 in Mumbai………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Bulls Are Their Own Worst Enemy

Posted on 09 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What is the biggest obstacle to a commodities rally? Saudi Arabia’s oil policy? China’s lower growth forecast? Try Wall Street. The big problem facing oil, natural gas, iron ore, coal and the like is that years of high prices prompted drillers and diggers to boost supply just in time for demand growth to cool off.
But drillers and diggers don’t like to stop what they do best just because prices have dropped. Better to let the other guy do that to rebalance the market. Keeping going, though, requires access to capital—and that is where Wall Street is the great enabler………………………………………..Full Article: Source

All eyes on India’s gold savings plan

Posted on 09 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

India’s gold market was quiet last week after experiencing a bout of volatility on the announcement of new gold schemes in the Union Budget. Market experts outside India believe that if the new scheme clicks with savers, it could erode demand for physical gold, given that India is among the top two markets for bullion in the world.
With Indian households estimated to own about 20,000 tonnes of gold, even if 5 per cent of it were to be unlocked by the new gold deposit scheme, it would reduce the country’s imports by 1,000 tonnes. For 2014, the country had imported 769 tonnes of gold. Gold prices closed at $1,167/ounce, down 3.8 per cent for the week due to a stronger dollar. The US dollar index moved up to 97.6 from 95.29 in the previous week. This week, the US economic calendar is light with just jobless claims and retail sales numbers due on Thursday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Goes Back to Boring With Volatility at 4-Month Low

Posted on 06 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is once again leaving investors bored. The metal’s 30-day historical volatility dropped to the lowest since early November on Thursday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Even Mario Draghi’s plan for more bond buying that sent the euro to an 11-year low against the dollar wasn’t enough to spur some movement for gold, with futures trading little changed for most of the day in New York.
Prices are up 1 percent in 2015, paring gains of as much as 10 percent through mid-January. Gold fell 1.5 percent in 2014, and in the past year the metal is the least-volatile of the 22 components tracked by the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The U.S. Labor Department will release jobs data on March 6 that may show more improvement for the economy, allowing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Timid silver does not mean bad economic news

Posted on 05 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold’s relationship with silver and the stock market seems to have changed. The mint ratio is the gold price divided by the silver price. Assuming supply stays reasonably stable, the mint in recent times has tended to rise when equities fall.
When the S&P 500 hit its post-dotcom bubble low in 2003, the mint breached 80. Just before Wall Street’s credit crunch trough in early 2009, the mint brushed 90. The inverse correlation is explained by investors lowering the price of silver relative to gold as the tougher economic times hurting stocks are seen reducing demand for the grey metal. Gold has hardly any industrial uses………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold & Silver Investing Strong, Sellers Vanish

Posted on 04 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold investing sentiment jumped in February, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault, surging from a half-decade low to the strongest level since Spring 2013. That’s according to our new Gold Investor Index today. It tracks the number of buyers vs. sellers on BullionVault, the low-cost gold and silver market online. Used by 55,000 people worldwide, it saw $1.2 billion of metal (£740m, €920m) exchanged in 2014.
And last month, BullionVault’s Gold Investor Index jumped from 50.5 to read 54.5 as the number of people starting or adding to their gold holdings rose, but the number of sellers sank by two-thirds. A reading of 50.0 would signal a perfect balance of net buyers and net sellers across the month. The Gold Investor Index peaked at 71.7 in September 2011……………………………………….Full Article: Source

China, Commodities Bust To Force RBA’s Hand

Posted on 03 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It would be fair to say when China sneezes, Australia catches a cold. The Reserve Bank of Australia knows this all too well and is why it is likely to pull the trigger on another 25 basis point cut in interest rates to stave off pneumonia.
The pullback in China’s growth to its slowest pace since 1990 was worrying enough for the People’s Bank of China to cut interest rates for a second time in three months on Saturday, and some economists are arguing that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will follow suit with a second successive rate cut when he convenes the monthly meeting of the central bank’s board in Melbourne on Tuesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will 2015 Be Gold’s Year?

Posted on 03 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A volatile beginning to 2015 is helping gold to regain some of its mojo. The U.S. stock market got off to a shaky start in January, and instability in currency markets initially lifted the price of gold bullion. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is already up around 7% year-to-date. Likewise, ETFs that leverage exposure to gold and related assets like the ProShares Ultra Gold ETF (UGL) and the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3x Shares (NUGT) have soared 14.6% and 72% respectively.
A swift decline in the euro and the recent move by the Swiss National Bank to end the cap on the franc are reminders that currency values can change dramatically. Will Denmark be forced off its krone peg to the euro as well? Amid recent currency ups and downs, gold looms as an alternative………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper: A Rebound - Don’t Get Too Bullish

Posted on 03 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

I have been writing a lot about copper lately because I think it is one of the most important commodity prices to monitor. Copper is a building block staple - growing economies require copper to build infrastructure. When it comes to economic growth, copper is a barometer. Doctor copper is a misnomer - copper is really the patient.
It does not provide a diagnosis of global economic condition; rather it reacts to the strength or weakness of the landscape. Therefore, copper is a symptom and symptoms occur not in the doctor but in the patient. Since copper traded to all-time highs of $4.6495 per pound in February 2011, the price of the red metal has made lower highs and lower lows. In January 2015, it broke below the $2.72 level, which was the June 2010 lows and key support………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Explaining the global oil-price drop

Posted on 02 March 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Middle East is burning. Jets fighter from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt have attacked numerous Islamic State (IS) movement targets in Syria, Iraq and Libya, mainly in response to the sadistic killing of a captured Jordanian pilot, Moaz al-Kasasbeh.
In this hostile conflict, begun in June 2014, oil prices have dropped significantly, from the highest level of more than US$100/barrel in 2010 to approximately $50 this year. Yet Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) did not do anything to cut oil supply, to stabilize prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What To Make Of Gold Prices In 2015

Posted on 27 February 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For much of the past decade, gold has been viewed as one of the most stable and predictable investments in existence. The price of gold was rising slowly but steadily, and crises in world politics and financial markets continually proved that the precious metal had value as a protective hedge.
And yet, in mid-2012, this popular outlook began to change as gold prices became more volatile than most modern investors are used to seeing. Take a look at the 10-year gold pricing chart at online precious metal market BullionVault.com, and you’ll see the trend as clear as day. While gold today remains at a significantly inflated per ounce price than what we saw a decade ago, the steady rise that investors got used to between 2005 and 2012 is no more………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is there a Logical Oil Price?

Posted on 25 February 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

If you have been following the price of oil over the last few months, the chances are you are a little confused. On the one hand, you have the likes of A. Gary Shilling who, in this Bloomberg article, loudly trumpets the prospect of oil at $10/Barrel, and on the other, there is T. Boone Pickens, who, at the end of last year was predicting a return to $100 within 12-18 months.
Pickens prediction has moderated somewhat as WTI and Brent crude have continued to fall, but in January he was still saying that oil would return to $70 or $80/barrel in the near future. So, who is correct? ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Comodities ‘super-cycle’ stalls without wheels

Posted on 23 February 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

We may have been deluding ourselves with regard to the recent commodity super-cycle — the apogee of which, by the way, has probably been over for as long as seven years. It may not been so super after all. Charts produced during the week by London-based Capital Economics reveals a pattern of commodity moves that should confound any view that these items have retained good value over the long term.
For one thing, the price surge that reached its most exciting level just before the GFC struck in 2008, was not the greatest in real terms. Adjusted for inflation, the highest peak for commodities was caused by World War I, followed by the oil shock of the 1970s (and sustained by the gold burst in 1980)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Gold Is Looking Lustrous Once Again

Posted on 23 February 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Since peaking above $1,900 an ounce in September 2011, gold prices have declined by nearly 40%, settling at around $1,200 an ounce on Friday. I became bearish on gold in January 2013 and discussed why this January 25, 2013 global macroeconomic commentary, citing: 1) the passing dangers of a euro zone breakup (after Spain, Portugal and Greece were bailed out by their richer peers), 2) the recovering U.S. economy, and 3) that gold was highly vulnerable to a major decline after a 12-year bull market.
I slapped a 12- to 18-month price target of $1,100-$1,300 an ounce—when gold traded at $1,660 an ounce. It now appears that the decline in gold prices is nearly over, and that there will be a great long-term buying opportunity in gold this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

We like the fundamentals for gold

Posted on 23 February 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Medium to long term, we like the fundamentals for gold. On the supply side, although mine production was up for the sixth consecutive year due to mines that were developed over the last decade, we do not believe there is a large enough pipeline of new projects to satisfy future demand.
This is due to a cost structure that is approaching (or even exceeding) the current spot price. On the demand side, we see continued strength in Asia and throughout the emerging markets, central banks and the investment sector as price goes up — hence a real “push/pull” phenomenon in the years ahead………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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