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For commodities markets, the bad times are just beginning

Posted on 28 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For the commodities market, the good times have come and gone, but the bad times are only just beginning. Each commodities supercycle, defined as a decadelong bull market, has always been followed by a downturn that lasted just as long, or longer.
With demand weak and oversupply rampant, it is unlikely that this time will be any different. For many countries and companies, this means the only options are adapt or die………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Speculators march into China commodities

Posted on 28 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

At the start of the year western commodity traders knew China, the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials, would play a decisive role in the direction of markets. What they did not know was that it would be Chinese investors as much the country’s economic prospects driving prices.
In the past month near mania has gripped China’s commodity futures markets with day traders and yield-hungry wealth managers pouring into a lightly regulated sector, often with astonishing results………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver bullion momentum building as supply trouble brewing

Posted on 28 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver bullion prices are likely to rise further as there is “supply trouble brewing” as strong industrial and investment demand are confronted by declining supply.
“There are signs that this year could be a pivotal year for the silver market,” New York-based CPM Group said in its “Silver Yearbook 2016… Silver mine supply is forecast to decline for the first time in 2016, since 2011,” CPM said, noting scheduled closures and planned production cutbacks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver Supply Trouble Shows Why Rally Momentum Is Building

Posted on 27 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

More good news for silver bulls: there’s supply trouble brewing. Output from mines will fall for the first time since 2011, while demand for the metal in uses including industrial products and jewelry is heading for a fourth straight gain, supporting prices, according to CPM Group.
The market is entering what is “likely to be a pivotal year,” the New York-based researcher said in its “Silver Yearbook 2016.” Production is declining just as signs of stabilization in China’s economy fuel optimism for stronger global demand, helping drive a 24 percent rally in silver this year through Monday that topped gold’s performance………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities react like a canary in a coal mine

Posted on 26 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities are suffering from a negative sector sentiment, independent of supply and demand dynamics. This is largely because concerns about Europe and the US getting trapped into recession and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ability to steer the country’s economy into soft landing refuse to go away.
No doubt commodities will be the first in the line of price collapse if recession hits the world. That is why Vedanta Resources chief executive officer Tom Albanese loves to describe the “commodities sector as a canary in a coal mine”. Albanese doesn’t think global recession will happen. But, the thought of demand could take a hit is leading people to cut their commodities exposure………………………………………..Full Article: Source

After Doha, what next for Opec?

Posted on 25 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Opec has had some infamous meetings in its history. An ill-timed hike in quotas in Jakarta in November 1997 led to a crash in prices, while the June 2011 “worst ever” meeting in Vienna, as the Saudi oil minister termed it, failed to stop prices from rising. Doha last week was, perhaps, not in that league but still blended tedium, surprise and dysfunction, even more embarrassingly for including key non-Opec players.
Most Opec countries attended along with non-Opec leaders such as Russia and Oman. It seemed that the previously announced deal to freeze production at January levels was a formality, especially as most countries involved could not or would not increase output anyway………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold, already on its way up, may head even higher

Posted on 25 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold bugs may have a firmer grip on the market than you think. Consolidation in the precious metal has become the driving force for positive near-term momentum in the space, said Zev Spiro, CEO and chief market technician at Orips Research. It comes as both gold and silver trade around their highs for the year.
“As long as prices hold above support in the $1,190-$1,205 area, then the composure remains positive,” Spiro told CNBC’s “Futures Now” in a recent interview. “Upward momentum is expected with a breakout above the $1,275-$1,280 area. So, that’s where I expect the new wave of buying would come in and could carry prices higher.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Should you run with the commodities herd?

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Another week of climbing commodities prices must be making true believers of professional investors, whether they like it or not. At some point, fund managers have to start looking nervously at their performance against a benchmark that is being turbocharged by the most hated sector of them all: resources.
Last year was tailor made for the average investor using the sharemarket index as a benchmark. All you needed to do was be underweight banks and resources and you could boast you were beating the market and earning your fees………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Fallen angels: Downgrades surge amid commodities rout

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

More companies were tossed into the investment junkyard during the first three months of this year than in all of 2015, as weak commodity prices helped to undermine once-solid corporate balance sheets.
Moody’s Investors Service, one of the world’s largest credit raters, said in a report that it pushed 51 companies out of its investment-grade category during the first quarter of 2016, a reflection of their increasing risk of default. By comparison, Moody’s downgraded only 45 companies to below investment-grade status during all of last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why $80 could be ‘new normal’ for oil: Advisor

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The “new normal” for U.S. oil prices could be as much as double the current $40 per barrel, but don’t expect $65 to $80 crude until around 2018, long-time industry advisor Tom Petrie said Wednesday.
“We overshot on the downside, when we penetrated $30 [per barrel],” Petrie said, referring to the Feb. 11 bottom of $26.05 per barrel. Since then, WTI has surged about 45 percent. “Some of that recovery, shock though it was, was getting back into a more normal adjusted price.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

The Biggest Gold Buyer: India Is Back!

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Indian jewelers have called off their 43-day strike, which began as a reaction to a 1% excise duty on gold jewelry. For nearly six weeks, the global gold market was missing its largest buyer. Gold purchases across India were paralyzed by a strike from national jewelers’ associations.
The Indian physical markets stayed away from the dramatic rise in gold, which has gained 17% on a YTD (year-to-date) basis. The rise in gold is also reflected in mining-based funds. The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) has risen 71% YTD. Mining returns are often more amplified than metal returns………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is Silver’s 11-Month High Just The Start?

Posted on 21 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The silver market has taken off in spite of gold’s struggle to make new gains, and, according to one international bank, silver’s 11-month high is just the beginning.
Wednesday, May Comex silver futures were up 1% on the day, last trading at $17.155 an ounce, its highest price since early June 2015. The grey metal has become the best performing precious metal and is currently up more than 23% since the start of the year. In a report published Wednesday, ABN AMRO said it is currently reviewing its silver forecasts for 2016, noting that its previous forecast is “too conservative.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities Post Best Rally Since August as Citi Sees Gains

Posted on 20 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Supply concerns are resurfacing for commodities from crude oil to soybeans, sparking the biggest rally for raw materials since August. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a measure of returns for 22 components, jumped percent 2.4 to 82.6543 on Tuesday, the biggest gain since Aug. 27. Oil in New York climbed as much as 4.4 percent, corn reached a six-month high and silver entered a bull market.
After five straight years of losses, commodity markets are rebounding as supply overhangs start to subside. Unfavorable weather is threatening soybean output in South America, while the start of a La Nina pattern this year could bring dry weather to U.S. grain-producing regions………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is Bitcoin Becoming More Stable Than Gold?

Posted on 20 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The last 24 days mark the longest period in which bitcoin prices have been less volatile than gold prices. Digital gold is starting to look slightly more stable than its physical counterpart.
Since its inception several years ago, bitcoin has seen wild prices swings as advocates have tried to establish the nascent technology as a widely-used digital currency. But for the past three weeks, the price volatility of bitcoin has remained below or equal to that of safe-haven gold, according to data analysis from FactSet and CoinDesk………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold’s best forecasters see rally resuming as confidence returns

Posted on 20 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold, one of this year’s best performing assets, has room to extend its advance, according to top-ranked forecasters, even as the rebound shows signs of losing steam. Capital Economics Ltd. and Cantor Fitzgerald LP are bullish as real interest rates will probably stay low even if the Federal Reserve raises borrowing costs in response to higher inflation.
Bullion may surge to $1,350 an ounce by the year-end, says Simona Gambarini, an economist at Capital Economics in London. The metal will continue to climb, though at a slower pace, says Rob Chang at Cantor Fitzgerald in Toronto. Gold traded at $1,235 on Monday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Citigroup says commodities rout is finally over

Posted on 19 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Citigroup has called an end to the commodities rout which has sent shockwaves through the global economy, and pummelled the balance sheets of mining giants. “There is growing evidence that virtually all commodities have stared at a price bottom and are groping for a return to normal,” Citigroup analysts wrote in a note.
They said a lot of this will depend on the growth prospects of China, which is the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials. While the end of the year looks “constructive”, they flagged significant obstacles on its road to recovery………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Gold Bear Market Is Over; Prices to Hit $1,350 in Q4

Posted on 19 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The gold bear market is all over, this according to one well-known metals research firm. Speaking with Kitco News on Monday, Phil Newman, co-founder of the London-based firm Metals Focus also added that he sees improving prices throughout the year.
‘[L]ike many other people we see the bear market as over. Prices will continue to improve over 2016 and beyond this year,’ he said. Newman, a longtime gold forecaster, added that short-term, gold could weaken due to the uncertainty surrounding the rate hikes of the Federal Reserve………………………………………..Full Article: Source

G20 worried by ‘modest’ global growth, commodities weakness

Posted on 18 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Financial leaders from the Group of 20 nations said on Friday they were heartened by a recent recovery in financial markets, but warned that global growth was “modest and uneven” and threatened by weakness in commodities-based economies.
In a communique issued after their meeting in Washington, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors repeated their pledge to refrain from competitive currency devaluations, but offered no new initiatives to keep growth from stalling. The G20 officials took a slightly more positive view on financial markets, which they said had mostly recovered from sharp selloffs earlier this year and were in better shape since they last met in Shanghai in February………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC Talks a Good Game

Posted on 15 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Perception is reality. That is how Qatar’s Minister of Energy could have kicked off the letter inviting his Norwegian counterpart to the upcoming freeze-fest in Doha, which Bloomberg published on Thursday. In the letter, the minister claimed that mere talk of a freeze had “changed the sentiment of the oil market.”
He’s right. Brent crude has rallied by almost 40 percent since the idea of an output freeze first surfaced in February. Despite very mixed signals about it from Saudi Arabia, Iran and others, this has been enough to scare the short-sellers straight………………………………………..Full Article: Source

UBS: Gold-Investment Demand Offsetting Soft Physical Market

Posted on 15 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investment demand for gold is more than offsetting weakness in the physical market, thereby driving prices higher so far this year, says UBS. “Many are becoming increasingly convinced about gold’s strength and believe that the market has entered a new phase,” UBS says, noting it has a “constructive” view on the metal.
“Those who are looking for higher gold prices argue that low/negative interest rate environments, deteriorating confidence (in) central banks and the effectiveness of monetary policy, currency depreciation and downside risks to equities markets should all make a case for more upside.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Finally, It’s Silver’s Time to Outshine Gold

Posted on 15 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After falling short of gold’s performance every year since 2012, silver is finally pushing ahead to post the biggest rally among precious metals this year.
While both benefit from mounting speculation that the Federal Reserve will be slow to increase interest rates, the white metal, which also has industrial uses, is gaining an added boost from signs of stabilization in China’s economy and the resilience of the U.S. expansion. In the spot market, an ounce of gold buys 75.96 ounces of silver, the least since December………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold resurgence: who’s buying gold and why

Posted on 14 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After four years of sharp falls, a sudden revival has been taking place in the gold market. In the first three months of 2016 the price of the yellow metal soared by 20pc - its best quarterly performance since the financial crisis erupted in the final three months of 2008.
The gold price, currently around $1,260 an ounce, is well below its record peak of almost $1,900 achieved in July 2011, at the height of the European sovereign debt crisis………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Buy Gold – Advises HSBC

Posted on 14 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Sentiment towards gold is slowly moving from being extremely negative and bearish to more bullish. HSBC joins a long list of large banks, insurers and investment houses who are now bullish on gold.
HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, ABN Amro, UBS, Deutsche Bank, PIMCO and BlackRock head a growing number of investment houses that are recommending an allocation to gold today. Indeed, the world’s largest reinsurer Munich Re is buying gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

HSBC Looks For Gold/Silver Ratio To Continue Narrowing

Posted on 14 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

HSBC looks for the gold/silver ratio to narrow further, which would mean silver is outperforming. The ratio measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold.
Comex May silver rose Tuesday even as June gold eased slightly, and silver has posted a smaller percentage decline so far Wednesday. “We believe that retail demand for coins and small bars and light institutional buying in the paper markets has boosted silver,” HSBC says in a late-Tuesday research note………………………………………..Full Article: Source

You can now be positive on commodities, and that’s a big change: Russell

Posted on 13 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It would be easy to dismiss the assertion by BHP Billiton Chief Executive Andrew Mackenzie that commodity prices have bottomed as the wishful thinking of a mining executive keen to see some improvement in profit margins.
While it’s likely that the boss of the world’s biggest mining company is hoping for an end to five years of a declining price trend for many of the commodities his company produces, there is enough price evidence to suggest he may be right. It’s probably a little too early to call for a rebound in commodity prices, and Mackenzie was suitably cautious in his comments published last weekend in The Australian newspaper………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China: Total Collapse In The Price Of Gold

Posted on 13 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Chinese economy is showing serious signs of stress, this is resulting in reduced demand for all commodities including gold. China is the worlds top gold consumer, if this country enters recession it will drag gold down with it. This is further support for my assertion that recession and deflation are bearish for gold.
To understand the role of gold in the economy you must understand China. The country is not only the biggest consumer of the precious metal, but the worlds biggest producer as well. The Chinese economy is showing serious signs of stress and its overheated markets show the tell-tale signs of speculative bubbles - slowdown in growth is inevitable………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Expert sees gold price crossing $3,000 in 3 years

Posted on 12 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The price of gold could go up above $3,000 per troy ounce in three years, a precious metals expert said on Monday. Speaking at the Dubai Precious Metals Conference, Dr. Diego Parrilla, co-author of ‘The Energy World is Flat,’ said “a perfect storm for gold is brewing” as central banks have reached the point of no return.
“Central banks continue to push and test the limits of monetary policy, credit markets, and fiat currencies, which could result in gold prices above $3,000/oz within 3 years,” said Parrilla………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Some Investors Are Hot on Gold

Posted on 12 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Some investors most likely entered a panic mode at the very beginning of 2016. With growing uneasiness in the Chinese markets, money was withdrawn from China. Also, equity markets went tumbling with the oil market rout. Currencies were vulnerable, and one option where investors could park their money was precious metals. Gold has surged a whopping 16% on a year-to-date basis. Silver followed gold, rising 9.3% on the same basis.
Changes in gold and other precious metals have been largely dependent on the US dollar in 2016. The US dollar eased 3.8% on a year-to-date basis as speculation of an interest rate hike continued. Weakness in the US dollar often gives some breathing room to US-dollar-denominated assets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities rally: False dawn or new beginning?

Posted on 11 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After a turbulent start to the year, Asian equities have made a comeback. This optimism can be credited to fading risks of a sharp Chinese yuan depreciation, US recession, and weakening regional currencies. But the most surprising development in a month of reversals has been the commodities rally, which has helped drive Asian equities up about 16 per cent since its January lows.
Commodity prices have roared to life after four years in the doldrums. Gold climbed 19 per cent to reach its recent peak and outperformed all other asset classes this year. Oil prices hit a three-month high in March. Industrial metals, led by iron ore prices - up nearly 45 per cent from last December’s low - have rallied as well. Some believe the storm has passed, pointing to an unexpected surge in Chinese construction activity as evidence for a sustained commodities rebound………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Opec’s days as economic force are ‘over’

Posted on 11 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

‘The era of Opec as a decisive force in the world economy is over’ argues Daniel Yergin. Opec’s economic power is broken, says the unofficial historian of the oil industry, who has argued that the association of oil exporting countries has become irretrievably divided and is unable to reverse the current slump in crude prices.
Daniel Yergin, whose Pulitzer-prize winning book The Prize provides a comprehensive history of oil and power, said he believes the association’s economic prowess has been undone by its inability to agree on how to stop the oil crisis.Yergin, who is also vice-chairman of data provider IHS, said the recent disagreements among Opec members have revealed how weak the organisation now is………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Changes to London Gold Fix Could Send Gold to $5,000

Posted on 11 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The gold price death spiral between 2011 and 2015 left a lot of analysts puzzled. Money poured out of precious metals and into stocks, driving gold prices into a deep slump. Now, an overhaul at the London Gold Fix could help reverse the tide, drawing in institutional investors and sending gold prices to levels we’ve never seen before.
But before we get to that, let’s quickly review what happened between 2011 and 2015. Precious metals fell as a group during that time, but the gold price slump was particularly strange in light of economic uncertainty around the world………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Can Silver Keep Pace With Gold?

Posted on 08 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold’s surprising strength in price is capturing headlines, but another precious metal, silver, is chasing gold’s coattails – without the fanfare. Silver futures are up about 8.5 percent this year, making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets.
Investors snapped up coins, with U.S. Mint data showing March silver coin sales were up 17 percent over the previous year’s figure. Inflows into silver-backed exchange-traded funds witnessed their highest monthly inflow since December 2010, according to Commerzbank………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Where to Search for Chinese Commodity Demand

Posted on 07 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity salesmen used to have a simple pitch: “China hasn’t fully urbanized.” But when asked Wednesday why he is hopeful about China’s long term when its underlying steel demand is contracting, Australian iron-ore miner Fortescue’s chief executive Nev Power led with a different reason. “China has been able to supplement domestic demand with very strong exports,” he said.
In 2015, China’s steel exports jumped 20% from the year before. Exports equated to 14% of China’s crude steel production. But this hardly seems like a sturdy source of demand. Trade politics could slow Chinese steel exports………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Big Trouble Ahead For Copper Is Good For Silver Prices

Posted on 07 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It looks there may be trouble ahead for copper. This goes well beyond the falling copper price and annual surpluses. Chinese investors have been buying copper to finance trades. Thus, they have been warehousing one heck of a lot of copper to finance these trades This has kept demand artificially higher, causing mining companies to add more copper production.
Why is this good for silver? As global base metal supply, especially copper, starts to decline, it will drastically impact global silver mine supply. Again, 55% of world silver mine supply comes from copper, zinc and lead production………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Goldman’s commodity chief wants investors to bet against gold

Posted on 06 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold futures have been among the best performers this year. But that hasn’t stopped Goldman Sachs’ head of commodities, Jeff Currie, from recommending that investors bet against the yellow metal. “Short gold! Sell gold!” That was Currie’s unabashed advice during a CNBC interview Tuesday after discussing the outlook for crude-oil futures.
Currie’s rationale is fairly straightforward: The closely followed Goldman strategist sees the Federal Reserve raising benchmark interest rates at some point in 2016 and believes the result of higher rates will be a drag on the dollar-denominated precious metal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is gold steadying itself for a major bull run?

Posted on 05 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors have the opportunity to make significant returns on gold shares, many of which still have a long way to go before reaching pre-bear market levels, according to Paul Burton, mining research analyst at QuotedData.
The gold price (in terms of the London pm fix price) reached US$1,277.50/oz on 7 March, a rise of 18% since the start of the year. After softening over the following week or so, the price climbed back to levels approaching the high for the year in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting, when it became clear major interest rate hikes are not on the cards this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Zimbabwe: Introduce gold-backed currency, says U.S. investor

Posted on 05 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

American investors have advised Zimbabwe to take advantage of its mineral resources and introduce a gold-backed currency, which could help attract international capital. On 1 April, an investment consultant from the US advised monetary authorities in Harare to consider the gold reserve bank and gold currency path. The gold bank and currency could be linked to a gold debit card and finance it through economic citizenship.
Chairman of Casey Research, Doug Casey said the gold reserve bank could become an international gold bank attracting deposits worldwide. The bank, he said, would then convert the amounts deposited into gold using prevailing market rates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Lovers Bet Party Isn’t Over After Big First-Quarter Gain

Posted on 04 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Even after a lackluster March, money managers are betting the best-performing commodity last quarter still has further to run. While gold futures have dipped from a 13-month high, hedge funds are the most bullish since January 2015.
The precious metal posted its biggest quarterly advance in three decades as turbulent financial markets and ebbing global economic growth boosted demand for it as a haven. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said last week that U.S. central bankers should “proceed cautiously” on plans to raise interest rates because of risks from the global economy. London-based research firm Metals Focus Ltd………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Splitting the Difference in Gold Analysis

Posted on 01 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

No one can agree on what just happened in gold, let alone what comes next in 2016, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. “Gold heads for best quarterly rally in 25 years,” says data and news provider Bloomberg. Not so, say competitors Thomson Reuters. “Gold poised for best quarter in nearly 30 years.”
What’s 5 years between arch-rivals? The two news-wires’ headline writers can’t agree on the key driver of gold’s sharp Q1 rebound either. Bloomberg says “safe haven demand”; Reuters says “dovish Fed” comments on future rate rises………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is gold headed for a correction? Top consultancies offer up mixed price outlooks for 2016

Posted on 01 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The world’s top two gold consultancies have offered up mixed outlooks for prices in 2016. Metals Focus and Thomson Reuters GFMS each launched their 2016 gold reports on Thursday. Both firms are cautious on gold in the short term, as they see prices pulling back in the second quarter after rising a whopping 16 per cent in the first quarter.
But Metals Focus thinks the second half of 2016 will be very strong, while GFMS is optimistic but more guarded. Metals Focus predicted gold will peak at US$1,350 an ounce in the fourth quarter, up from US$1,235 currently………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Commodities Are The Trade Of The Year

Posted on 29 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

We talked last week about the weakness in the Chinese economy, which has been compounded by the weak-yen policies in Japan (which threatens China’s king-of-exports throne). And we know, based on history, Chinese policymakers won’t sit back and let weak global demand and a currency war from Japan undo the path of their economy.
They’ve already reversed course on their currency policy of the past decade, as they’ve begun taking back some of the appreciation of the yuan of the past 10 years. And they’ve already responded with more rate cuts and bank stimulus. But with growth running at recession-like levels in China (even at 6%), expect them to do more, maybe a lot more………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is the Dollar Gold Price controlled by JPM in Cooperation with the BIS?

Posted on 29 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In this paper we conclude that JP Morgan [JPM] in cooperation with the Bank of International Settlements [BIS] controls the dollar gold price by using their very dominant position in gold derivatives in the US Banking System.
JPM held during 1999 – 2014 an average of 3.262 paper metric tons gold (derivatives) available for interventions on the development of the dollar gold price with the BIS as counterparty. Furthermore we conclude that the paper volume sets the dollar gold price and that there is almost no influence on the dollar gold price from the physical supply and demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Relying on commodities ‘untenable’

Posted on 24 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Dow Chemicals boss Andrew Liveris has lauded Malcolm Turnbull’s innovation agenda and warned Australian politicians that they can no longer afford to stake the country’s future on the increasingly volatile commodities market.
Liveris gave a no-holds barred assessment of the challenges facing Australia. “The commodities cycle is unkind,” the Darwin-born chairman and chief executive of Dow said. “Relying too much on commodity exports has always been risky………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Has Oil Prices Bottomed Out?

Posted on 24 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices have been on a downward spiral for roughly 20 months now because of an oversupplied market that is made even worse by a soft demand for oil globally. But exactly how low can oil prices go? If you’re a trader, it’s imperative that you know if prices are reaching their lowest point or have bottomed out, because in a competitive market like oil trading, recognizing trends before they actually occur can spell the difference between profits and losses.
If you wait for analysts or industry groups to crunch numbers and churn out reports that confirm that prices have reach their troughs, chances are, it will be too late and you would have missed your window of opportunity to buy low and sell high………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Goldman is wrong about gold

Posted on 23 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs has been predicting the demise of gold for the past few years. Last summer, the firm predicted gold would fall to $1,000 by the start of 2016. The firm reiterated that call in its latest commodities report (March 7), saying it thought gold would fall to that key level within 12 months.
The rationale is that gold is primarily a “safe haven” asset in times of economic and market turmoil and that the U.S. faced very little recession risk — so there is no reason for investors to seek the shelter of gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why You Should Still Hold on to Gold - Market Expert

Posted on 22 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Despite the pullback in gold prices, one market veteran says it is still not time to cash in your gold bets just yet. Gold prices fell below the key psychological level of $1,250 an ounce on Monday as the metal saw more profit taking pressure.
The move comes after recent gains pushed prices to a 13-month high less than two weeks ago. April Comex gold settled $10.01 lower on the day at $1,244.20 an ounce. Despite consolidation in the gold market, Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy for BK Asset Management, says he is still a ‘big gold bull’ this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

US dollar, not China, drives commodity falls

Posted on 22 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The collapse in global commodity prices last year was primarily driven by a surging US dollar, not an economic slowdown in China, a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has concluded.
The surprise finding challenges the conventional view that China’s tempering demand for commodities such as oil, industrial metals and some agricultural products, drove the swoon in commodity prices. A regression analysis over the past 25 years by New York Fed economists shows that a 1 per cent increase in the US dollar index corresponds to a 0.9 per cent drop in the commodity price index………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China and the Future of Commodity Prices

Posted on 21 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

There is no doubt that China’s ongoing growth slowdown has had far-reaching effects on the global economy. But its role in the sharp fall in commodity prices that has occurred since 2014 – an outcome that has been devastating for commodity-exporting countries, including once-dynamic emerging economies – is more limited than the conventional wisdom suggests. In fact, China’s slowdown is only a part of the commodity-price story.
To be sure, there is a clear correlation between Chinese GDP growth and commodity prices. In the early 2000s, when Chinese growth accelerated, commodity prices rose sharply; since China’s slowdown began in 2011, energy prices have fallen by 70%, metals prices by 50%, and agricultural commodity prices by 35%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Dilemma for gold investors after recent price rise

Posted on 21 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

We’ll defer to The Clash to sum up the dilemma facing investors in local gold stocks after the sector’s recent virile surge: should I stay or should I go now? Stay? There will be trouble if global economic growth improves and monetary authorities start to ratchet up interest rates, which is guaranteed to kill the mood for gold.
Even some of the most ardent gold bulls concede the sector’s valuation looks toppish. Go? Investors miss out on the spoils of a sector that is enjoying unprecedented profit margins, courtesy of the depreciated Aussie dollar and tumbling costs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities gains ‘can no longer be ignored’

Posted on 18 March 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Natural resources equities and physical commodities have produced “significant returns” over recent months, with structural shifts in the economy set to further benefit the asset class, says Pengana Capital.
In a market update, Pengana Capital said physical commodities and resources stocks have produced “strong gains” since the lows of end-2015. According to Pengana, iron ore is up +54 per cent, oil has rallied +33 per cent and gold prices have risen +18 per cent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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