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When Is the Best Time to Buy Gold?

Posted on 27 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Call it superstitious, call it good marketing, or call it tradition, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. But where India has Akshaya Tritiya in spring and Diwali in autumn, China then has Lunar New Year – the most ‘auspicious’ time of year for people to buy gold.
The best time for gold traders, however, is different. And it may be due in some part to those same religious and astrological dates observed by gold buyers in Asia. “Sell in May, come back on St.Leger’s Day,” claims stockbroking lore in the City of London. That old chestnut basically tells clients and staff to take a long summer vacation, starting with the Whitsun Bank Holiday and returning after the year’s last big horse-race meeting. Wouldn’t want to disturb your broker from studying the form, after all…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Should you be investing in gold right now?

Posted on 26 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Is this the best time to stay invested in gold? Gold, which neared the keenly-watched $1,400 (Dh5,138) an ounce in 2014, had been an investor’s darling, but the yellow metal has mostly been curtailed in a range so far in 2015. But analysts are painting a bearish picture on gold over the short to medium term.
On Thursday, international spot gold traded at $1,200 an ounce level, after having traded in range of $1,163-$1,306.2 so far in 2015. Gold moved around $1,200 an ounce as bullish catalysts, such as signs of faster inflation, were offset by speculation the Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates. While the weaker dollar usually draws buyers to gold, there’s also less demand for haven assets with equities near all-time highs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why the Economist is wrong on gold

Posted on 26 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

When reading the financial press, the amount of coverage one sees on the topic of precious metals, is almost nonexistent. Most pundits don’t care for the metal, nor do they understand it. In fact, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that he doesn’t understand gold. Yet, when you read articles on gold from media pundits, all one hears is negativity about why you shouldn’t invest in the yellow metal.
The best example of this is a recent article I read in the Economist. It is called, Russia is buying gold, but few others are. This article claims that despite the low interest rate, easy money environment, combined with the fact that half the gold mining companies are generating negative cash flows, gold is still stuck at a stagnate price of $1200 per ounce. The economist claims, that this is due to the fact that no one is buying the yellow metal, except for Russia………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Forecast: Likely Going Higher

Posted on 22 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The action in the gold futures market (June 15) suggest that the metal will more than likely rise from here. During the session on Wednesday, we had the FOMC meeting minutes released, and they suggested that a June interest rate hike is very unlikely out of the Federal Reserve. This of course will build a bit of a case for owning gold, as the US dollar will more than likely struggle.
However, we didn’t necessarily think there was an imminent hike coming, and I think that the market in general was already looking at that possibility. It is because of this that we are looking for a gradual gain in the gold market, not some kind of “melt up.” The candle from the Wednesday session also makes a case for buying as far as we can see………………………………………..Full Article: Source

HSBC bullish over gold

Posted on 21 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The U.S. economy hasn’t completely recovered from its last recession – what some have called the biggest since the Great Depression – but another one could be just around the corner, according to one economist.
In an opinion piece in the Financial Times, Monday, HSBC chief economist Stephen King said that historical trends shows that recessions hit every eight or nine years and the last one in the U.S. ended six years ago. If history is any indication, the U.S. could be facing another recession in the next three years. What’s worse, he said, is that policy makers don’t appear to have the ammunition needed to fight another one………………………………………..Full Article: Source

History Shows A Gold Bull Market Is Fast Approaching

Posted on 20 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Yearning for sunnier skies for your gold investments? How’s this sound…Gold in a decisive bull market, with the price steadily rising. Silver soaring and outpacing gold’s gains. Gold stocks rocking, erasing underwater positions and racking up the profits.
That’s not pie in the sky wishful thinking—it accurately describes the next stage of the gold market, something that will soon visit your portfolio. With the price of gold currently stuck in place, like a stain on the front of your best shirt, and the stocks only teasing us like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown, how can I be so sure?……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold is now more important than ever

Posted on 19 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The race by the world’s central banks to debase their currencies means holding gold bullion is vitally important in the current environment, according to star manager Sebastian Lyon, chief executive at Troy Asset Management.
Lyon, who heads up the highly popular Troy Trojan fund and Personal Assets Trust, recently told FE Trustnet that investors face the “particularly unpleasant” combination of very low returns and high volatility as years of extraordinary central bank monetary policy have left nearly all assets classes expensive and therefore highly correlated………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will the Gold and Silver Surge Continue?

Posted on 19 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold started off 2015 with a bang as safe haven buying mainly due to an increase in currency volatility, uncertainly over Greece’s future in the euro zone and expected quantitative easing in Europe. However, the gains fizzled out as gold prices again dropped on strong U.S jobs. Following which, gold prices fell to new six-week lows as equities recovered on hopes that Greece would work out a deal with its creditors.
The demand for yellow metal returned at the start of the second quarter on disappointing economic data. The weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions emanating from the Saudi Arabia-led coalition’s attack on Houthi rebels helped the price of gold move up. Again, early this month, rate hike expectations had dragged the gold price to a six-week low………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Weak dollar boosts bullion

Posted on 18 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices could move higher as the greenback remains under pressure. It was a spectacular week for the yellow metal. Global spot gold price witnessed a sharp 3 per cent rally in the past week, its biggest since January. It went on to close on a strong note above the psychological $1,200 per ounce mark at $1,224.
Among the other precious metals, silver price rallied 6.3 per cent to close at $17.5 per ounce and platinum was up 2.3 per cent and has closed at $1,168 per ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will Oil’s Price Surge Continue? Don’t Bet on It

Posted on 15 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent weakening of the US dollar and building of speculative long positions by hedge funds and other investors resulted in significant support for many commodities, except for precious metals. Because the fundamentals have not changed, and the situation of oil oversupply lingers on, we see downside risks to oil prices
The support for those commodities was driven by hopes of economic recovery (which would lead to increased demand) as well as fear of supply disruptions. The weakening of the US dollar was the result of disappointing US data, in combination with fears of delayed Fed action…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Prices Will Find It Very Difficult To Go Over $70-75 In The Next 2 Years

Posted on 15 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil has seen a massive recovery from mid-$40 levels just two months ago to above $60 where it is trading now. While some are bullish that this move will continue and prices will continue to move upwards till $100, Oppenheimer Energy analyst Fadel Gheit thinks that’s unlikely.
“We see oil prices moving higher,” Gheit said. “But we are not likely to see a repeat of the recovery that we have seen over the last eight weeks. Eight weeks ago oil prices were $44, today oil prices are around $60. We think that oil prices will start moving up again, but probably at much slower pace. I still believe that oil prices will probably try to seek an equilibrium really round $60 to $65.” ………………………………….Full Article: Source

Global Gold Market Remains Steady In Q1 2015 Demonstrating The Unique Diversity Of Gold Demand

Posted on 15 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The first three months of 2015 saw stable gold demand, according to the latest Gold Demands Trends report from the World Gold Council. Total demand for Q1 2015 was 1,079 tonnes (t), down just 1% on the same period last year.
Conditions differed from market to market, but at an aggregate level, these differences broadly balanced each other out. Once again, consumers in Eastern countries dominated the market with China and India alone accounting for 54% of total global consumer demand in the quarter…………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Next Gold Bull Market Starts Before October

Posted on 15 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

At an International Monetary Fund (IMF) forum last month, China’s central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, made it clear he believes the renminbi is “ready for reserve status.” It would be a huge step for the Chinese currency, starting with the fact that it would be added to the basket of currencies IMF member countries can include in their official reserves. Billions would be invested in it.
What was the IMF’s reaction? “We welcome and share this objective,” said IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde. “We are now working closely with the Chinese authorities in this regard,” added Director of Communications Gerry Rice. They didn’t say they would accept it, but then again, they surely wouldn’t advertise it in advance…………………………………..Full Article: Source

7 Common Misconceptions About Gold

Posted on 14 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is perhaps one of the most misunderstood physical assets out there. Below are seven common misconceptions we gathered about gold. 1. The United States Dollar is backed by gold. The U.S. dollar was backed by gold for some time, but is not anymore. After President William McKinley signed the Gold Standard Act in 1900, the U.S. went on a gold standard in which one dollar was convertible to 1.5 g (23.22 grains) of gold.
In early 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt suspended the gold standard with the exception of foreign exchange. In 1971, in the most well-known of the “Nixon Shock” series of actions, President Richard Nixon severed all ties between the U.S. dollar and gold, effectively abolishing the gold standard…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gartman: Forget OPEC, here’s why I’m getting long oil

Posted on 13 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC’s latest warning that crude could stay below $100 a barrel for the next decade wasn’t enough to keep Dennis Gartman on the sidelines in the oil market. To the contrary, the founder of “The Gartman Letter” said that he’s now bullish on crude oil for the first time “in a very, very long while.”
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a draft of its latest strategy report that it doesn’t expect crude to trade consistently above $100 per barrel in the next decade, according to the Wall Street Journal. The draft reportedly forecasted crude trading at around $76 per barrel in 2025, and also modeled scenarios where crude would trade below $40 per barrel in 2025………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What’s Next for the Gold Price?

Posted on 13 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Will gold zoom higher with Greece on the brink of default? Or will it crash as the Fed pursues an “exit?” Why has gold not rallied with the recent retreat of the dollar? To understand where gold may be heading, keep in mind that this shiny metal isn’t changing; it’s the world around it that is. We contemplate why investors may want to hold gold as part of their portfolio.
In today’s world where the utterance of a pundit may move markets, it may be helpful to go back to basics to allow investors to make up their own mind as to what drives markets and what may be a good investment. As such, gold is simply a precious metal, a rare, naturally occurring chemical element that tends to be less reactive than most elements………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Big banks flag dangers of financial bubble in oil and commodities

Posted on 12 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Barclays warns that the latest commodity boomlet has charged ahead of economic reality across the world: ‘Watch out: this rally may not last’. The big global banks have begun to warn clients that the blistering rally in oil and industrial commodities in recent weeks has run far ahead of economic reality, raising the risk of a fresh slump in prices over the summer.
Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have all issued reports advising investors to tread carefully as energy and base metals fall prey to unstable speculative flows in the derivatives markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Precious Metals - Gold Continues To Disappoint Everyone

Posted on 12 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The dollar corrected and gold ignored it. Divergences continue. It is a range trade. What will make gold break out of the range? All signs continue to point south. The price action in gold is like watching paint dry these days. Everything about gold is boring lately. June COMEX gold futures closed at $1187.30 on Friday, May 8 — just $3.20 above where it was at the end of December 2014. All I can really say about the gold market these days is — Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
There are many devotees of the gold market; there are also plenty who believe that gold is just a barbarous relic of the past. Gold is a beautiful lustrous metal and it evokes passionate emotions from bulls and bears alike………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities as a safe haven?

Posted on 08 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

We’ve been seeing some shaky equity markets lately. The stock markets can be great to trade when there’s a good trend going on, but while we are still in a global equity bull market, there may be some shaky periods ahead. Perhaps there are better opportunities in other asset classes.
The key advantage of commodity markets is that they’re not correlated to the financial markets. Whether the stock markets are heading up or down has very little impact on the price of rice. At the moment, there are some very interesting trends going on in the commodities space which are completely unrelated to what’s going on in stocks and bonds at the moment………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil’s wild ride: where will prices go?

Posted on 08 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Over the next six months, we may expect a Goldilocks scenario in which prices are neither too high nor too low. From Main Street to Wall Street, Beijing to Paris, people are interested in whether oil prices will rise or fall.
I suggest that we begin to examine this question by asking why oil prices dropped like a rocket from over $105 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in summer 2014 to around $47 per barrel in January 2015. We can then see if the causes of the price collapse are likely to reverse going forward………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold an ‘unreliable’ hedge against geopolitical risk – SocGen

Posted on 08 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is not reliable as a hedge against geopolitical risks, Société Générale said on Thursday. The performance of the yellow metal in periods of regional military conflicts is mixed and it has not performed well consistently, the bank said in a note on Thursday.
One of the most recent examples is the annexation of Crimea by the Russian military during which gold initially rallied towards $1,400. “[But] the gold rally didn’t last very long and it wasn’t long before gold was trading at levels below when armed men seized Crimea’s parliament,” SocGen said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Fate of commodities is linked to dollar

Posted on 06 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Amonth or so ago we highlighted a research note from Barclays that showed how investors were continuing to retreat from commodities. Long-term readers will not be surprised to learn that looks to have marked a turn of fortune for the sector. The Continuous Commodity Index is an equally weighted measure of 17 commodity futures, including energy, base metal and agricultural benchmarks, along with precious metals, too.
As such, it is a useful gauge of sentiment towards the broad asset class. The CCI hit a five-year low in March but has trundled higher of late, forming what chartists might consider a solid looking base………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Long-term Outlook for Massive Parabolic Run to $5,000

Posted on 05 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In order to comprehend why the long-term outlook for gold (and silver) is so positive you only have to understand that global debt and balance sheets are set to expand indefinitely. The controllers of the system had the chance to demand that the books be balanced back in the financial crisis of 2008 - 2009, but they weren’t interested - they were much more interested in taking the easy way out and lining their own pockets at the expense of society at large, by printing vast quantities of money which they gifted to themselves, and fleecing savers via zero and now negative interest rates.
They were then able to use their Central Bank generated cash handouts to make even more money by speculating in global property and stockmarkets, and magnify their gains even more via the carry trade………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will gold get back its sheen?

Posted on 05 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The key factor working against gold right now is the imminent rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. “Gold will be a bad asset class once the Fed starts hiking rates. Low inflation and rising interest rates are bad news for gold,” says Kishore Narne, Associate Director, Mo tilal Oswal Commodities Broker.
“The dollar will rise if the US Fed hikes interest rates. So, the outlook for gold is likely to remain bearish for the next one year,” concurs C.P. Krishnan, Wholetime Director, Geojit Comtrade. However, don’t expect a big fall in gold either. “Gold has peaked out in dollar terms. But the geo-political situation is fast changing,” says Jayant Manglik, President, Retail Distribution, Religare Securities……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Six Silver Questions and Perspectives

Posted on 05 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The next time you find yourself contemplating, worrying, or wondering with anxiety whether it’s too simple to be true; it is not simple - it’s exceedingly complicated. Not because the fundamentals are all that hard to understand. And not because in principle it is sound personal action in any time period.
But it is complicated because we’ve spent so many years off the rails of sound economic principles that we don’t recognize them when we see them. And the inertia to change is very intense on an unspoken level. Each step we take to make it right–to do what is wise– is met with a startling resistance. Almost an unconscious, collective river moving against progress………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver: Consolidating Into A Wedge Pattern?

Posted on 05 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver has continued to consolidate its position, within a very tight trading range, since experiencing a strong selloff a week ago. Despite the bearish pressure,silver has managed to close through some limited resistance at 16.220 and it now appears in the early stages of forming a rising wedge. Considering that the highs are getting higher, it might be time for Silver to retrace some of the gains it lost over the past few days.
Silver has also been under considerable scrutiny of late as JP Morgan has acquired a significant position in the commodity with some analysts suggesting that they are now in a position to corner the market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Dollar Rally Is Over, Time To Rotate Into Multinationals, Commodities

Posted on 30 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs is wrong about the dollar, according to Cornerstone Macro in a report published on Monday. Cornerstone Macro is top ranked in macroeconomics research by Institutional Investors. The debate is always: What’s been driving the dollar? Goldman Sachs, for instance, believes foreign central banks’ monetary easing policies have been the catalysts that will push the U.S. dollar higher. See my April 23 blog “Goldman: The Dollar Rally Is Not Over“.
Cornerstone Macro’s Francois Trahan and team take a different view. “Our work suggests that the bulk of dollar strength [over the past several quarters] has been a function of a global growth slowdown,” wrote the analysts………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Rout Over … For Now

Posted on 29 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices continue to be overwhelmed by slack demand, over-supply in many parts of the complex, a strong U.S. dollar, and weak economic growth. Add to this the ever present geopolitical factors (an inevitable and key component of price formation). Continued price weakness (and volatility) across the complex continues. Many consumers, meanwhile, are reaping the short term benefits.
Commodities remain the dismally performing asset class, with the slowdown in China, over-production, extensive QE, and dollar strength among those continuing to undermine prices. However, prices have been declining so much for so long now that we may have reached a short-term price bottom, beyond which it’s difficult for any more softening………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold shines ahead of Fed statement

Posted on 29 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Hopes that the Federal Reserve will refrain from significant changes in its April statement due on Wednesday have buoyed gold prices. Gold rallied for a second straight day, rising 0.9 per cent to $1,212.62 an ounce, on expectations that Fed policymakers will acknowledge the recent spate of soft economic data, which in turn would make a June rate rise less likely than previously thought.
The timing of the Fed’s first rate rise has largely governed the price of gold this year. As an asset class that offers no yield, the prospect of a rate rise has weighed on gold, as investors rotate into income yielding assets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What’s with JP Morgan and its massive silver hoard?

Posted on 29 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

All markets are rigged – and silver especially so! That may be a cynical appraisal but the fact remains that any entity with sufficient capital behind it can usually move any market in the direction that suits it – the size of the market concerned perhaps being the key factor here as to whether this would be easily accomplished, or even attempted!
And silver is a small enough market to be in the sights of the big money which theoretically can move it whichever way it wants through huge forward purchases or sales in the futures markets. As those who’ve been around a while will recall, oil billionaires Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt, back in 1979/80 attempted to corner the silver market in just this way………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Should I Have Held Commodities In My Portfolio?

Posted on 28 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity funds manifest inferior risk-adjusted return, relative to other asset classes. Absence of conclusive superior risk-adjusted returns for portfolios holding commodity funds. Commodity performance as an investment varies by the particular fund (proxy) used. Commodities are a relatively new asset class. (They are new at least with respect to domestic equities.)
That is, it was only within the last dozen years that a lay investor could get their hands on a commodities mutual fund. And as with many new investments, the fledgling commodities fund history has been relatively volatile; the previous bull run has turned bear………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Best Way to Own Gold and Silver

Posted on 28 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

I’m looking for information on adding gold and silver to my investments. What are the advantages and disadvantages of buying coins? What about gold and silver stocks or mutual funds?
“We think gold and other precious metals can play a part in a well-diversified portfolio, but our preference is to own the stocks or the mutual funds that would give you that exposure,” says Joe Franklin, a certified financial planner and president of Franklin Wealth Management in Hixson, Tenn………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What’s Buoying the Demand for Bullion?

Posted on 28 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold jewelers are betting the Indian Akshaya Tritiya festival will buoy demand for bullion. Jewelers expect the festival could drive up sales by as much as 30 percent over last year’s level. Already, gold imports are estimated to have hit 125 tons in March, compared with just 55 tons in February and twice the amount imported a year earlier, suggesting jewelers have stocked up well.
The holy day of Akshaya Tritiya, which fell on April 21, is considered by Hindus as an auspicious day to purchase gold. It is the nation’s second biggest bullion-buying festival. After a two-month hiatus, Russia’s appetite for buying gold is back. The nation increased foreign reserves of bullion to 39.8 million ounces as of April 1, compared with 38.8 million ounces a month earlier………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bullion no more the sole attraction on Akshay Tritiya

Posted on 23 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Akshay Tritiya on Tuesday sent the cash registers ringing at city jewellery shops, which registered a 30-35% increase in business as compared to the festival last year. However, buyers’ preference for jewellery over bullion pointed to a shift in the trend seen in the last few years.
“This Akshay Tritiya, business across the city surpassed expectations and overall sentiment was positive,” said Fatehchand Ranka, president of the Pune Saraf Association. As Akshay Tritiya is one of the days considered to be auspicious to buy gold, many people plan in advance to make their purchases on this day every year……………………………………Full Article: Source

Gold loses its silver lining on Akshaya Tritiya, price drops on global cues

Posted on 22 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices fell by Rs 100 to close at Rs 27,100 per 10 grams at the bullion market today as the auspicious ‘Akshaya Tritiya’ festival failed to generate any substantial buying activity for the precious metal amid a weak global trend.
Silver also dropped Rs 560 to Rs 36,440 per kg on reduced offtake by industrial units and coin makers. Traders said apart from a weak trend in overseas markets as investors weighed a rally in equities and the dollar in the absence of any significant buying by jewellers, led to decline in gold prices. Globally, gold in Singapore, which normally sets price trend on the domestic front, fell by 0.3 per cent to USD 1,192.29 an ounce…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is It a Good Idea to Buy Gold on Akshaya Tritiya?

Posted on 22 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

India on Tuesday marks Akshaya Tritiya – a day considered as an auspicious time to buy gold. But is it? Sales of gold and silver usually shoot up every year on Akshaya Tritiya that usually falls in late April or early May and around which the World Gold Council has focused major marketing efforts in recent years.
Akshaya means – “that which never diminishes,” and Tritiya — derived from the Sanskrit root for “three”— specifies when in the lunar calendar it falls. India is the world’s largest consumer of gold; the metal is a common gift during festivals, religious events and weddings. So having a day defined as golden for gold buying is enough to tempt many buyers…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Don’t buy gold on Akshaya Tritiya

Posted on 20 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

This year, clients of Bengaluru-based financial planner Anil Rego have not yet asked him for advice on whether they should buy gold on Akshaya Tritiya. Given Indians’ general love for gold, this lack of interest might seem surprising as the festival, on the coming Tuesday, is considered an auspicious occasion to buy gold. Or, maybe not, given how returns from gold have fallen over the past couple of years.
“Gold should be part of your asset allocation. While equities will always do better than gold in the long run, having gold along with equities will reduce the risk in your portfolio and improve the returns,” Rego says……………………………………Full Article: Source

Are Low-Risk High-Yield Investments Real?

Posted on 16 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The low-risk, high-yield investment—it’s the Holy Grail of finance, or perhaps more aptly, the perpetual motion machine. One that rewards its holder out of proportion to the danger of holding it. But is there indeed such a thing as a vehicle that can combine the returns of a Lotto ticket with the safety of a Series I savings bond?
As a rule, the correlation between risk and reward in the market is almost perfectly positive. Common sense or a few seconds’ rumination should show you why that’s the case, but here’s an explanation anyway. The more people desire an investment because of its expected returns, the greater the demand, and thus the higher its price goes………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Next commodity boom a generation away, says Deltec

Posted on 15 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The next commodities boom is “a generation away” for some key raw materials, and it is the commodity economies – such as Australia – that will provide the more compelling tactical opportunities to go short as the bubble deflates.
That is the view of Atul Lele, chief investment officer at Deltec, the private bank and wealth manager, who takes a negative view toward iron ore and the industrial metals but remains favourable on agricultural commodities. Even taking a long-term view, “all commodities are expensive”, he says. Iron ore had no credible prospect of a rebound in either the short or medium term, a blow for Australia’s materials sector, he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why prefer commodities over commodity manufacturers

Posted on 14 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Owning commodities allow investors to take exposure to the commodity he has a view on. Investing in shares of commodity manufacturing companies lead to exposure to many factors such as broader equity market sentiment, company fundamentals.
Investors often face the difficult choice – to buy gold or a gold miner, or to buy aluminum or aluminum manufacturing companies. Put simply, they have to make the difficult choice between a commodity and the commodity manufacturer. The decision requires a detailed look at both the investment options………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Bulls Boost Wagers by Most Since 2010 as Output Seen Peaking

Posted on 14 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Speculators increased bullish oil bets by the most in more than four years, wagering that the U.S. production boom is slowing. Hedge funds boosted net-long positions on West Texas Intermediate crude by 30 percent in the seven days ended April 7, the biggest jump since October 2010, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
Long bets rose to a nine-month high, while shorts tumbled 21 percent. U.S. crude output and inventories may peak this month amid a record drop in rigs exploring for oil, Goldman Sachs Group said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Who’s winning the oil battle: OPEC or the United States?

Posted on 14 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s been more than four months since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries put global oil prices into a virtual free-fall when it decided at its semi-annual meeting in Vienna to not cut production. That has put a tremendous amount of pressure on what’s been called the shale oil revolution in North America and in the United States in particular.
Who’s winning so far? Well, that seems like trying to read tea leaves in a barrel of crude. “I think it’s two freight trains running at each other,” said Chris Faulkner, CEO at Dallas-based Brietling Energy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Mark Mobius’ top conviction: Buy commodities

Posted on 09 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

While the price outlook for many commodities remains bleak, veteran investor Mark Mobius recommends positioning for a recovery in the beleaguered asset class. “Right now it’s commodities believe it or not, they are so far out of favor,” Mobius, executive chairman at Templeton Emerging Markets Group, told CNBC when asked what his top conviction call was.
“No one knows what’s going to happen next in terms of the military situation in the Middle East, so oil is something you’ve got to watch. I think there will be a recovery,” he added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

There’s still no hope for the gold market

Posted on 09 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The gold market is still resting on a shaky foundation of sentiment. You may recall that this is the same conclusion I reached a month ago. And, just as contrarian analysis concluded then, gold has not since mounted a rally. Though there has been a lot of volatility — including an $18 rise on Monday and a $7 decline on Tuesday — gold today is barely changed from where it stood in early March.
And, yet, the average short-term gold timer monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest is more bullish today than then. As a result, contrarian analysis is even less bullish on gold today than it was a month ago………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC … Your Days are Numbered

Posted on 08 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil jumped this week to its highest price since mid-February. Is the energy sector’s worst pain over? “Don’t count on it,” says Goldman Sachs (GS). They say oil prices can’t rise much until oil production shrinks — which will take months, maybe years. OPEC’s monopoly isn’t so valuable anymore. In fact, it isn’t even a monopoly. The sun is setting on OPEC.
Say what you will about Goldman Sachs; they’ve been mostly right about oil prices lately. Their analysts forecasted $75 oil last October, weeks before the big drop. Goldman’s only mistake was being too optimistic………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Who’s to Blame for the Oil Price Crash?

Posted on 07 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

When we think of the recent drop in oil prices , the question is not only who started it, but who’s responsible for keeping the prices falling. Probably no one would dispute that the price plunge began with the eager and copious production of oil from shale formations in the United States. From the American perspective, that was beneficial because it was bringing energy self-sufficiency to a country with the reputation as the world’s largest importer of oil.
Despite unproven concerns about hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a common way to extract oil and gas from underground shale rock, the practice has proven extremely productive. And that’s the source of the oil glut that began driving down prices in late June 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gartman: Gold is going higher

Posted on 07 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices climbed to their highest level in more than six weeks on Monday on the back of Friday’s disappointing jobs number, which sent the dollar index lower and left traders searching for safety. According to Dennis Gartman of “The Gartman Letter,” the move higher in gold could just be getting started.
The Dow Jones industrial average finished higher by triple digits on Monday after opening the session down by more than 115 points. The day’s volatility marked the fourth session this year in which the Dow was both up and down by triple digits in the same day. Gold prices held relatively steady throughout the session, maintaining gains as the equity markets turned positive………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China Will Keep a Lid on Most Commodities

Posted on 02 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Looser credit conditions or fiscal stimulus may temporarily boost China’s demand for coal, copper and iron ore, but the bounce would be fleeting. Mined commodity prices are unlikely to recover from recent lows, as China’s structural economic transition diminishes the main source of global demand growth.
Falling input costs and global overcapacity have reshaped the global steel industry: Prices will be lower for longer Weak crop prices and low farmer incomes are a significant headwind for fertiliser and seed companies, but we don’t expect the breeze will be too strong……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Goldman Sachs warns that peak gold may happen in 2015

Posted on 02 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman warns that peak gold may happen in 2015. New report says there are only “20 years of known mineable reserves of gold”. Discoveries of new sources of gold production peaked in 1995 despite major bull market .
Production lags new finds in 20 year cycle – Indicates 2015 may be year of peak gold production. Production in major gold mining countries has dropped in recent years. This will provide support and should lead to higher prices in long term. For many years, we have written about ‘peak gold’ and the ramifications of the underappreciated peak gold phenomenon for the gold market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities are going lower—here’s my play: Trader

Posted on 02 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A strong dollar sent global commodity prices plunging in the past year. And one currency trader is setting himself up to profit from further declines. “We expect the uptrend in the U.S. dollar to continue,” said TradingAnalysis.com founder Todd Gordon on Wednesday’s “Trading Nation.” The dollar has already surged more than 22 percent in the last 52 weeks.
So, in order to play for further upside in the greenback, and downside in commodities, Gordon looked to the land Down Under: Australia. Specifically Gordon targeted, the FXA, the Australian dollar ETF, which is down more than 17 percent in the past 12 months………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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