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Ag prices soar: Commodities get mojo back

Posted on 13 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors have been harvesting big gains in the past month from agricultural commodities, and some of the futures, such as sugar and soybeans, were near levels this week not seen in 18 months or more.
Latin America weather woes and the Brazilian government turmoil are playing a major role in the month-long ag rally. Brazil’s real has strengthened against the dollar, encouraging producers of traditional export products, such as coffee and sugar, to sell supplies at home………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Prices Rise After IEA Report

Posted on 13 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

U.S. oil prices rose to a fresh six-month high in topsy-turvy action with traders divided about whether the oil market is balancing faster than expected or on its way to another major retreat. A report from the International Energy Agency was the one clear new catalyst in the market Thursday, but even it drew mixed interpretations.
The Paris-based agency said global oil stocks will experience a “dramatic reduction” in the second half of the year, but also warned that they will continue to increase in the first half of the year as Iran ramps up its production, adding to the nearly two years of oversupply………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price rally in Q1 best in 30 years: WGC

Posted on 13 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The enthusiasm with which investors renewed their appetite for gold ETFs in Q1 saw prices of the yellow metal (in US dollar terms) rally 17 per cent in in the first quarter of calendar year 2016 (CY16), says the latest World Gold Council report. Gold closed the quarter at $1,237/oz, 17 per cent above the end-2015 price of $1,060/oz.
Gold demand, on the other hand, grew 21 per cent to 1,289.8 tonnes - the strongest Q1 on record. Inflow into gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) at 363.7 tonnes in the first quarter of calendar year 2016 (CY16) also hit a seven-year high………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran, Saudi in oil price war

Posted on 12 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iran on Wednesday blamed its biggest rival Saudi Arabia for the “collapse” of the recent Doha talks on capping oil output but the Kingdom appeared to shrug off the allegation and instead said it would boost production in 2016.
Iran, which did not attend the talks amid a diplomatic row and continuing Middle East proxy wars with Saudi Arabia, also said it would not curb its oil production. Earlier this week, Iran announced that it increased its output to pre-sanctions levels, fulfilling its 2015 pledge to boost production by as much as 1.1 million barrels a day. Iranian President Rouhani says his country is pumping as much as 2.5 million barrels a day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

EIA: Energy Consumption Set To Soar 48% by 2040

Posted on 12 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Economic growth in China, India and other parts of Asia are expected to play a big part in driving the world’s energy consumption up by 48% within the next three decades. Growth toward 815 quadrillion Btu by 2040 is forecast to come as renewable energy’s slice of the energy supply pie gets bigger but not nearly enough to overtake fossil fuels, which will be the dominate energy source.
Petroleum and other liquids will lead the way, followed by natural gas, the fast-growing fossil fuel. Coal consumption is expected to fall just about everywhere, except India, amid continued efforts worldwide to reduce emissions………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Natural Gas, Oil Prices to Rise by 2017 - US Energy Info Administration

Posted on 12 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global oil prices plunged from $115 to less than $30 per barrel between June 2014 and January 2016, hitting their lowest levels since 2003 amid an ongoing glut in global oil supply. The prices have since recovered to around $40-45 per barrel for the Brent crude benchmark.
“We’ll see gas moving up toward the end of the year,” Sieminski stated on Wednesday. “It’s the winter time and you always get higher natural gas prices in the winter time, but we see natural gas prices moving back up overtime because there is more industrial demand, there is more demand for fertilizers and other products that are made from natural gas.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil price to be dragged down by more Saudi pumping

Posted on 12 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The oil price remaining “lower for longer” is now “highly likely”, says CNBC, after Saudi Arabia ramped up its reform agenda. The kingdom has replaced its veteran oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, with Khalid al-Falih, the chairman of state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco, who is close to reforming Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and has already indicated the kingdom will continue to prioritise market share over prices.
Yesterday, Aramco itself, which has a monopoly on all Saudi oil reserves, announced it will expand its output ahead of a planned minority flotation that would make it the largest quoted company in the world, with a valuation of as much as £1.39trn………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC oil production to rise - EIA

Posted on 12 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC oil production will rise reaching 32.43 million barrels per day in 2016 and 33.09 million barrels per day in 2017, according to the forecasts published in the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook.
In 2015, OPEC oil production amounted to 31.55 million barrels per day, according to the EIA’s estimates. The highest OPEC production is expected by the EIA in fourth quarter of 2017 - at 33.19 million barrels per day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold has entered a new bull market: JPMorgan

Posted on 12 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices are surging this year, and that has one of Wall Street’s largest banks flocking to the yellow metal. “We’re recommending our clients to position for a new and very long bull market for gold,” JPMorgan Private Bank’s Solita Marcelli said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”
After seeing three back-to-back years of losses, the precious metal has rallied 20 percent in 2016. And that’s just the start of the next leg higher, according to Marcelli. “$1,400 is very much in the cards this year.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Investors should expect the gold price to continue to rise

Posted on 12 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Policy makers in the US continue to look for an excuse to keep interest rates low, and that should send the gold price higher from here, according to Nitesh Shah, analyst at ETF Securities.
US interest rates rise in December, but remain at near record low levels. When they last rose, the market expectation was for as many as four further interest rate rises this year. The uncertainty that has wrapped itself around the global economy almost since the first day of 2016 has reset those rate expectations………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will Silver Prices Rise in 2016?

Posted on 12 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

To figure out the answer to the question will silver prices rise in 2016, let’s look at recent silver price activity…Today silver is trading around $17 an ounce. It’s up for the year, but it hasn’t been a straight line to this level.
So far in May, the price of silver has risen about 4.3%. That compares to the S&P 500 Index that’s up about 1% this month. We’ll talk about what’s been pushing silver up soon, but first, a look at what happened before this climb………………………………………….Full Article: Source

Eastern China’s steel mills cut ferrous scrap buying prices again

Posted on 12 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Large and medium-sized steel mills in eastern China on Wednesday cut their ferrous scrap buying prices by a large margin once again as Chinese domestic steel prices continued to fall. Jiangsu Shagang Group, the largest scrap user in China, Wednesday said it would lower its buying price of heavy melting scrap of 6mm thickness and above by Yuan 100/mt ($15/mt) after a cut of Yuan 50/mt on Tuesday, a company source said.
Shagang will now pay Yuan 1,400/mt ($215/mt), including 17% VAT, delivered to Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu province, for heavy melting scrap of 6mm thickness and above………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Two reasons why commodities prices could collapse

Posted on 11 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After big falls in the iron ore price overnight, and likely again tonight, a number of other commodities could also come off the boil. Silver prices appear to be falling, as does gold, and copper definitely is as the chart below shows. Copper sank to a four-week low overnight.
Platinum prices have come off, and Brent crude oil has dropped to US$43.58 a barrel, down from above US$48 a barrel at the end of April. Several resources companies have seen their share prices double or triple since the start of this year, but that trend could be about to reverse (perhaps apart from those in the lithium sector). South32’s share price is still up 45% since the start of this year, while BHP and Rio are flat………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi ouster will send oil prices ‘lower for longer’

Posted on 11 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recently announced changing of the guard in the Saudi oil ministry and the news spin around it says it is time to separate political banter and political reality. The banter is about a big surprise in the dismissal of Ali al-Naimi as Saudi energy minister. The reality is that this move has been preordained for some time now. Why?
At 80 years old, a relic of the prior King Abdullah, King Salman having sacked most of the appointees of that regime and the plans for taking state oil giant Aramco to an IPO all put the handwriting on the wall………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Loses Some of Its Allure

Posted on 11 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices settled lower in U.S. trading on Tuesday, as investors sought out riskier assets amid a stock-market rally and an increase in oil prices. Gold futures for June delivery, the most actively traded contract on Tuesday, settled about 0.1% lower at $1,264.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The drop comes after gold shed about 2% in price on Monday, its biggest one-day loss in nearly three months, as the dollar gained strength. Despite the recent losses, gold is still up some 19% year to date, according to FactSet. Investors piled into gold earlier in the year amid global economic uncertainty and a weaker dollar, which makes gold less expensive to buy for holders of other currencies………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Silver Price Will Rally in 2016 Thanks to One Fundamental Force

Posted on 11 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The silver price peaked near $18 last week. And despite backing off a bit since then, silver prices still look strong. It seems the behavior of the U.S. dollar has been crucial in swaying silver prices in the very near term.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened over the past four trading sessions, making it difficult for the price of silver to keep pushing higher. While moves in the dollar will continue to influence the near-term silver price, fundamentals and sentiment are going to be the medium- and long-term drivers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iron plunges below $US55 a tonne as commodity trading boom turns to bust

Posted on 11 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The world’s annual supply of iron ore changed hands four times in April pushing prices above $US70 a tonne, as Chinese speculators discovered commodities and began furiously trading them.
The boom, built on easy credit and Beijing’s stimulus measures, lasted just long enough for the Australian Treasury to upgrade its 2016 iron ore forecast to $US55 a tonne. That forecast is now under threat as Beijing cracks down on speculative activity in the commodity futures market, which has seen a rally in everything from cotton to eggs, iron ore and steel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

It looks like the worst is over for commodities for this year

Posted on 10 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices have been falling since the last two years.But in March 2016, commodity prices witnessed a recovery. Does this mean commodity prices have bottomed out or is there still more room for downside? Let’s find out.
One of the major reasons for the collapse in prices of commodities was supply glut. Supply of a number of commodities had risen exponentially. Some commodities include steel, iron ore, coal, crude oil, copper, and aluminium, among others………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi oil price hike justifiable, possibly perspicacious: Russell

Posted on 10 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabia’s decision to hike crude oil prices to Asian customers by the most in more than a year is both understandable and curious. Saudi Aramco, the kingdom’s state oil company, lifted its official selling price (OSP) for June-loading cargoes for the main Arab Light grade to a premium of 25 cents a barrel to the Oman-Dubai benchmark, up $1.10 from a discount of 85 cents for May deliveries.
This was the biggest one-month jump since April 2015 and took the OSP to its highest since September last year. The increase was more than the market expected, but it is understandable in the context of how the Saudis calculate their OSPs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Stable non-OPEC output decline key to oil price recovery: Goldman Sachs

Posted on 10 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The key to a sustainable recovery in oil prices will be stable declines in non-OPEC production, top commodities bank Goldman Sachs said on Monday. In its base case scenario, Goldman said it expects a sustained deficit in the third quarter of the year, until which oil prices are seen trading around current levels.
Crude oil futures were trading around $44 a barrel on Monday after the market shrugged off a cut of 1 million barrels per day in Canadian oil production due to a wildfire………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Prices Today Fall – but More Gains Are Coming in 2016

Posted on 10 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After pushing through the psychologically important $1,300 an ounce mark last week, gold prices fell sharply today (Monday). In morning trading, gold prices today were down more than 1.7%. But Money Morning Resource Investing Specialist Peter Krauth said today’s decline is just a short-term problem, and he remains bullish on the gold price moving forward.
Before we get into our outlook for gold prices in 2016, here’s why the price of gold is down today…Gold prices fell $22, or 1.71%, to $1,266.70 an ounce in U.S. trading Monday morning. After last week’s rally for the gold price, it appears many investors are taking profits today. The U.S. dollar index is also higher today, sending the price of gold lower………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China’s iron ore price to soften, stabilize in May: CISA

Posted on 10 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The China Iron & Steel Association expects China’s iron ore prices for both domestically produced and imported cargoes to likely soften and stabilize in May, it said in its April report released Monday.
“Oversupply in the iron ore market will persist, and China’s exchanges have been cooling down the speculative trading on steel and iron ore futures, and iron ore price [in the physical market], thus, will probably stabilize,” the report stated………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goldman: Steel, Iron Ore Rally May Last Through Q2

Posted on 10 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs raised its second-quarter iron ore price forecast by 47% to $55 per tonne last Friday, saying that the current rally may last through the rest of the quarter. Iron ore prices fell 2% to trade at $60.1 per tonne last week. This morning, Dalian iron ore futures tumbled 5.9%.
This is Goldman’s justification: The sequential improvement in demand surprised Chinese steel mills at the start of the year. A significant contraction in steel demand last year had conditioned the sector to expect further weakness in 2016 and to set inventories accordingly, leaving the sector unprepared for the subsequent rebound of the old economy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices jump 21% in 4 months

Posted on 09 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After remaining subdued for a year, gold prices have surged 21 percent so far this year, pushed by international factors. The price of one gramme of 24-carat gold in local market jumped from QR131 on January 1 to QR157 at April-end, and the price of one gramme of 22-carat gold from QR122 to QR148.
The sharp rise in the prices have impacted consumers. “We have seen broadly two type of customers. One set has decided to postpone buying gold and are waiting for the prices to fall. The other set is buying gold thinking that it is better to buy now as the prices may rise further in future,” said the sales manager of a jewellery showroom in Doha………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold to retain its uptrend

Posted on 09 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bullion prices got a breather in the final trading session last week. This was thanks to the weak US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data which failed to meet market expectations. The global spot gold had begun the week on a negative note and was on a downtrend all through the week. But the US NFP data on Friday halted this fall and triggered a reversal from the low of $1,269 per ounce.
The yellow metal closed at $1,289 per ounce on Friday, down 0.35 per cent for the week, recovering some of its losses. Among other precious metals, platinum closed at $1,080 per ounce and was up 0.3 per cent. Silver was the worst hit as it tumbled 2.1 per cent and closed at $17.47 per ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Pulls Back After Approaching 2016 Highs

Posted on 06 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

U.S. oil briefly reached some of its highest prices of the year Thursday as Canadian wildfires threatened a major oil producer, but the rally faded throughout the day with traders still confident of heavy stockpiles.
U.S. oil breached $46 a barrel for only the fourth time in 2016 and the day’s gains have rivaled some of the largest in the last month. The jolt helped revive a rally that has brought oil’s sharpest gains in years, but analysts and traders kept up their warnings of oversupply that has tugged that rally back throughout the week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iron ore sinks below $60 as Chinese frenzy cools

Posted on 06 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iron ore suffered another day of losses with the steelmaking commodity sinking below $60 a tonne as a speculative frenzy in China cooled following pressure from local exchanges and regulators.
Chinese iron ore futures experienced a surge in trading volumes last month as speculators piled into the market, looking for quick and easy ways to bet on a pick-up in construction activity and rising steel production………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Bank Raises 2016 Oil Price Forecast

Posted on 05 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices seen rising as oversupply diminishes, Amid improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar, the World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $41 per barrel from $37 per barrel in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, as an oversupply in markets is expected to recede.
The crude oil market rebounded from a low of $25 per barrel in mid-January to $40 per barrel in April following production disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria and a decline in non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production, mainly U.S. shale. A proposed production freeze by major producers failed to materialize at a meeting in mid-April………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why oil prices have nowhere left to go but down

Posted on 05 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Looking for a letup in the selling that has walloped markets over the past 24 hours? This morning at least, you’re about to be as disappointed as Ted Cruz. Economic worries drove investors into the dollar and out of commodities, with oil taking an additional hit on fresh fears of a supply glut. It stands to reason that investors are probably wondering if this is the start of a stock-market selloff — it’s May, GET OUT.
“We’ve seen a slight pullback in commodity markets, which appears to be leading the declines in equity markets,” Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, speaking for the no-panic side. “We’re probably seeing a little profit-taking following what has been a decent run since the middle of February.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold price to rise further, charts show, with a $1,340 upside target

Posted on 05 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

There are three key features to look out for in this breakout in the gold price, which also happens to confirm our analysis back in February. The first and most important feature on this chart is the breakout from the fan trend line pattern.
The second feature is the breakout confirmation from the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) relationships; the long-term group has compressed and turned decisively upwards. The third feature is the way price has remained above the critical resistance level near $1,200, using it instead as support point………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price at two-year high, demand to see new lows

Posted on 05 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold demand in India, the world’s second-biggest user, will probably shrink in the second quarter as a surge in local prices to the highest in two years deters buying for a festival next week and weddings this month.
Purchases may slide to about 100 metric tonnes in the three months through June from 125 tonnes in the period to March and 154.8 tonnes a year earlier, said Bachhraj Bamalwa, a director with the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation………………………………………..Full Article: Source

3 Factors That Could Propel Silver Prices 270%

Posted on 05 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver prices have soared roughly 27% since the start of 2016 on fears of a U.S. recession and weak global economic indicators. While most on Wall Street say fears of a recession are wildly overblown, the current price appreciation says investors are not so sure. And they are for good reason.
A raft of negative economic data continues to roll in suggesting silver prices will continue to climb in 2016. Silver is up around 27% year-to-date, near $18.00 an ounce. Trading at a 16-month high, many believe silver will run out of steam and simply trade sideways for the foreseeable future………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Careful, this oil price rally isn’t as deep rooted as it looks at first glance

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

At first glance, oil prices have rallied — a lot. Look closer, however, and the market is still pricing the “lower-for-longer” mantra, much as it did at the beginning of the year.
Front-month futures for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, have risen 21 per cent this year, but the recovery looks very different if you focus on the longer term. The five-year-forward WTI contract fell 2.6 per cent over the same period, reflecting the view that shale oil production could rebound as prices recover, capping any rally………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Slowing China pushes oil prices lower

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil prices retreated Tuesday for the second straight day after Chinese data showed a contraction in the nation’s manufacturing sector. A January collapse in the Chinese stock market helped push crude oil prices into the $30-per-barrel range as global economic recovery developed too slowly to take in the glut of oil on the market.
Prices recovered substantially in April as market watchers said balance was returning, though recent sentiments have pulled on enduring optimism. Financial group Caixin reported Tuesday its view of the Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index showed a reading of 49.4 for April, a figure that represents a formal contraction for the sector………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Cramer - Ignore the Reports, Oil is Going to $50

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices fell again Tuesday, hovering between $43 and $44 per barrel around midday. The decline has reportedly been sparked by fears of a supply glut and decreased global demand.
Oil below $45 per barrel worries TheStreet’s founder Jim Cramer, yet he is not wavering in his $50 price target. While the West Texas Intermediate crude oil forward strip does not predict prices near $50 through the end of 2017, analysts have often lamented that the strip is never right………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Price Upheaval Finally Hits Refiners

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

U.S. refiners, which posted robust profits the last 18 months even as other parts of the oil business were racked by low crude prices, finally saw their roll come to a halt in the first quarter. Many refining businesses reported earnings for the period that were down roughly by half from a year earlier.
That decline helped sour results for oil giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp., which has counted on refining to offset profit declines in energy production, and for Valero Energy Corp., the world’s largest stand-alone refiner by output, which on Tuesday reported its lowest first-quarter profit in four years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gartman says gold is in a true bull market—and on its way to $1,500

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has enjoyed a spectacular beginning to 2016, and one widely followed commodities expert believes the metal could be on the verge of going much, much higher.
“I think it’s still a bull market,” said Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman Letter, Monday on CNBC’s “Fast Money.” He predicts gold could finish out the year 10 to 15 percent above current levels. With gold hitting a 15-month high Monday and breaching $1,300, that would represent a price as high as nearly $1,500………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold may top $1 500/oz by mid-year

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Fresh off a 15-month high of $1 303.60/oz, prevailing economic conditions may well send gold prices skyrocketing in the near term. And bolster momentum in the silver price. “We’ve seen a rising trend range in dollar terms for nearly 6 months. If the current momentum continues, we could see gold over $1 500/oz by mid-year,” said John Butler, vice president and head of wealth services at GoldMoney.
Spot gold prices – up more than 22% year-to-date in dollar terms – received their most recent boost on the back of diminishing expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the concomitant weakness in the dollar, as well as the Bank of Japan deciding against further monetary easing………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Brazilian flat steel producers start new round of price hike

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Brazilian steelmakers have started a new round of higher prices for its flat steel products, although it is still uncertain how much of the desired hike would be absorbed by a depressed consuming market, sources said Tuesday.
An executive affirmed that “ArcelorMittal implemented the new prices on May 1, followed by CSN on Monday.” Usiminas’ higher values will be in effect on May 5, as previously announced by its commercial vice president Sergio Leite last week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Falling Commodity Prices Leave India With Huge Subsidy Bill

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The nose-dive in global commodity prices has had an unexpected repercussion in India: a giant new subsidy bill as New Delhi spends billions to mop up wheat, rice, sugar and cotton at government-fixed prices.
India guarantees minimum prices for certain crucial crops to protect its large population of poor farmers. When prices plunge, it has to buy more. It usually sells the commodities it collects at a loss—some to India’s needy and some on global markets. Some of the stockpile just rots in government warehouses………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is $50 Oil The New $100? (Depends On What You Think $100 Was)

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The rise in the price of oil to $45 from a low of $25 is probably not seeing champagne corks popping in Houston (and definitely not in Riyadh), but it is probably letting a lot of producers (and their bankers) breathe easier.
And various pundits have started to suggest that this is the point where markets will stabilize (a sustainable price, as the kids say), allowing just enough for many companies to invest and, if not expand, at least maintain production, while not drowning the oil market in light crudes from U.S. shales………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Price Rally Isn’t as Deep Rooted as It Looks at First Glance

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

At first glance, oil prices have rallied - a lot. Look closer, however, and the market is still pricing the “lower-for-longer” mantra, much as it did at the beginning of the year. Front-month futures for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, have risen 21 percent this year, but the recovery looks very different if you focus on the longer term.
The five-year-forward WTI contract fell 2.6 percent over the same period, reflecting the view that shale oil production could rebound as prices recover, capping any rally. “The markets may be getting ahead of themselves,” Michael Wittner, oil analyst at Societe Generale SA in New York, said in a note to clients………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil rally is not just about hedge funds: Kemp

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices are becoming dangerously overheated as speculators anticipate a rebalancing of supply and demand that has barely started, according to many oil analysts. “Even as oil rallies, analysts have barely nudged up their price forecasts as they worry that crude’s recent gains might not be sustainable,” notes the Wall Street Journal.
Many fear hedge funds are pushing up oil prices prematurely, which will lead to a renewed crash when the bubble bursts, as it did after the last big run-up in prices between January and May 2015………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Prices Slide on Bearish Data

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC production figures reinforce concerns oversupply fundamentals still gripping the market. U.S. and global oil prices fell sharply Monday after data showed rising oil stockpiles in the U.S. and increased production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Analysts and brokers said the three-month, 70% rally in oil prices appeared to be losing steam, with speculative bets hitting their highest levels in a year even as supply-and-demand conditions have yet to show substantial improvement………………………………………..Full Article: Source

BP Says Oil Price Not Lower Forever

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices will eventually rebound, BP’s Upstream Chief Executive Bernard Looney told attendees during a presentation at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. “Is it lower for longer or lower forever? At BP we don’t think it’s lower forever,” Looney assured oil and gas industry delegates during the first day of the global conference.
“You hear people questioning the future of oil and gas … The world needs this industry; half the world still lives in poverty…these people deserve the same opportunities we take for granted and oil and gas has [the potential to deliver that],” he added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Bank raises forecast for crude oil prices

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $ 41 per barrel from $ 37 per barrel in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook. This represents a drop of 19 per cent from the 2015, as an oversupply in markets is expected to recede.
In a statement made available to the Ghana News Agency by the World Bank’s Online Media Briefing Centre (OMBC), it said improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar was responsible for its position. It said the crude oil market rebounded from a low of $ 25 per barrel in mid-January to $ 40 per barrel in April, following production disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria and a decline in non-organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production, mainly United States sale………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold hits 15-month high above $1,300/oz as dollar wilts

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold rose to a fresh 15-month high on Monday above $1,300 an ounce, supported by renewed weakness in the dollar, but action was muted because of a holiday in some markets. Many Asian markets and London were closed for national holidays, dampening momentum in the precious metal, which posted its biggest weekly rally since early February last week, up more than 5 per cent.
That was chiefly driven by weakness in the dollar, which had its worst week since 2008 versus the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly opted against further monetary easing. The US currency stayed on the back foot on Monday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Crosses $1,300 Threshold as Rates Outlook Undermines Dollar

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After three years of being scorned, gold’s making a powerful comeback. Prices have pushed above $1,300 an ounce on speculation that the U.S. central bank will be slow to tighten policy further, bolstering the metal’s appeal as the dollar sagged.
Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $1,291.90 an ounce at 8:51 a.m. in Singapore from $1,291.55 on Monday, when it rose to $1,303.82, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal has gained 22 percent this year, rising to the highest since January 2015, as a gauge of the dollar lost 6.3 percent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Has Potential To Reach $1,400 - RBC Analyst

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold’s rally continues, and according to one technical analyst known in the industry, the uptrend could push prices $100 higher. “The trend on gold is in a strong short-term uptrend that now has the potential to reach the 1,400 level over the next few months,” said Bob Dickey, technical analyst for RBC Capital Markets, in a research report released Monday.
However, despite this relatively bullish call, the analyst said it is still too early to tell if gold’s momentum will remain longer term. “It is still too early to determine if the current rally is the start of a longer-term uptrend, or just a move to the top end of a range,” he said. “So, we suspect that gold-related issues will be possible sells if the metal gets close to 1400.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

IEA chief Birol: Oil prices may have hit bottom, but watch the economy

Posted on 02 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol said on Sunday that oil prices may have bottomed out, providing that the health of the global economy does not pose a concern.
Oil prices hit 2016 highs on Friday with Brent crude reaching $48.50 a barrel on optimism that a global oil glut will ease. That, coupled with a weaker dollar, has helped lift crude futures by more than $20 a barrel since prices plumbed 12-year lows below $30 in the first quarter………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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