Friday’s GDP number was a disappointment. The consensus among economists was that growth for the first quarter would be at least 3% (at an annual rate adjusted for inflation). The actual number was only 2.5%. And even that wasn’t as good as it looked. Growth late last year was very weak, so part of the first-quarter gain was simply a short-term bounce back from the previous quarter.
Nonetheless, those results appear to fit with conventional wisdom: A lethargic economy has managed to crank out minimal but steady growth for almost four years. And the outlook is slowly getting better rather than getting worse………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The dip in gold prices may not help narrow current account deficit, a report by HSBC said.”The recent drop in gold prices is likely to have no impact on the CA deficit as the drop in prices should be outweighed by a rise in volumes” said Leif Eskeseen, chief India economist, HSBC.
” Our quantitative analysis supports this”. The volume of gold imports rises with higher real incomes, lower real deposit rates, and falling gold prices. In fact, the volume demand for gold is price sensitive, the HSBC report notes. Indian households collectively holding no less than 20,000 tonnes of gold, according to the World Gold Council………………………………………..Full Article: Source

ABN Amro, the Dutch state-owned banking giant, recently revised its global macro and gold outlook, forecasting a $1,300 gold price by the end of this year.
Moreover, the bank forecasts $1,000 gold by December 2014, and $800 gold in 2015. Why? “The authorities — especially in Europe — have acted to reduce systemic risks and inflation is going down rather than up. . . Other assets will become increasingly more attractive as the growth outlook improves.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

ETP outflows may remain as a key downside risk for gold in the near term and prices are expected to touch $1350/oz in the second quarter of 2013 and $1483/oz this year, stated London based Barclays in its recent market analysis.
“In our view, the vulnerability of further ETP outflows subsides should prices recover to above the $1500/oz level or equity markets under perform given the stronger correlation between the two,” it added.Gold prices recovered last week, ending the week above the $1450/oz level, after hitting their lowest level since February 2011 the week prior………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity prices nudged up slightly in March just ahead of the steep sell-off in gold mid-April. Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index rose 1.6 per cent month over month. Traders are bracing for more uncertainty following a reality check in China’s economic growth, which rose less than expected at 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2013.
Oil and gas was the strongest sub-category as prices rose 6.8 per cent from February. Natural gas reached its highest level since July 2011 as the winter dragged on in North America………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Indeed, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among the countries most vulnerable to an oil price shock, the bank says.Brent crude prices have declined 12.5% this month alone, as traders worry about declining demand and rising output notably from the United States, the North Sea, Canada, Iraq and Libya.
Overall, Brent has lost 6.9% in 2013, ending the third week of April at USD 102.41 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The spot gold price was holding onto its strong gains last week to hover around the $1,465 an ounce level in European trading on Monday.Gold suffered a $200-plus decline that began on Friday 13 April and accellerated into Monday when the metal dropped to multi-year lows of $1,326 an ounce.
Gold’s recent push higher breached important technical levels and the 50% recovery of recent losses is also a bullish signal for the gold market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

HSBC lowered its gold forecast for this year and next on Friday, saying the recent tumble in prices for the yellow metal has dealt a severe blow to investor confidence, which may take many months to restore.The bank cut its 2013 gold price forecast to $1,542 per troy ounce from $1,700 and the 2014 price outlook to $1,600 per troy ounce from $1,720.
The bank, however, expects gold prices to stabilise after the recent rout as retail demand for gold lends support with rising jewellery and gold coin purchases from Asia………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Palladium prices may average $748/oz in 2013, and rise to an annual average of $795/oz in 2014, stated London based Barclays in its recent market analysis.
“We forecast the palladium market to remain in deficit for a second year, and we do not see this as a short term phenomena. We believe this will be the start of serial annual deficits for the market,” it added.From a deficit of over 1Moz in 2012, Barclays expects the palladium market to deliver a deficit of 700koz in 2013, followed by 639koz in 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

ABN AMRO sees most commodity prices declining further for the remainder of 2013 before strengthening next year on economic recovery-led demand, according to the bank’s Quarterly Commodity Outlook published today.
The improving outlook and sentiment for the US and China will support cyclical commodities, especially base metals, in the near term. Price increases of 5-10% are predicted for aluminium, copper and zinc are predicted in the coming quarter, with nickel expected to strengthen even further………………………………………..Full Article: Source

With the yellow metal down about 14% this year, wouldn’t it be great to get the scoop from famed investor Jim Rogers on gold prices in 2013- specifically, why they’re down, and if investors should still bet on a long-term gold bull market?
We had a chance to ask Rogers those very questions last weekend. Sunday evening, Money Morning Executive Editor William Patalon III spoke on the phone with Rogers - who was at his home in Singapore - in a wide-ranging discussion about gold, U.S. stocks, commodities and global central banks’ “race to the bottom” - or, as Rogers calls it, “race to insanity.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Wholesale gold rose to an eight-session high just shy of $1450 per ounce in London trade Thursday morning, recovering 45% of this month’s near-record slump.Asian stock markets also ticked higher, but European shares were flat while commodities extended their rally.
Silver prices were unchanged for the week so far at $23.30 per ounce.Gold priced in sterling fell £10 per ounce from an eight-session high of £946 as the pound jump on news that the U.K. avoided recession – growing just 0.3% – in the first quarter of 2013………………………………………..Full Article: Source

ABN AMRO has brought forward its forecast of $1,000/ oz to end of 2014 from end of 2015, according to it’s quarterly commodity outlook published.“Silver is expected to fall to $ 20/ oz this quarter,” it added.
ABN AMRO sees most commodity prices declining further for the remainder of 2013 before strengthening next year on economic recovery-led demand.The improving outlook and sentiment for the US and China will support cyclical commodities, especially base metals, in the near term………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Peter Krauth writes: All bull markets go through periods of consolidations and corrections. And precious metals are no exception.There has been plenty about gold’s swan dive, but less talk about silver. And at this point there’s more potential for silver than gold…significantly more.
Because the global silver market is relatively small, silver prices tend to be more volatile; the pounding selloff we witnessed in silver this past month is a testament to that fact. But volatility works both ways, so when silver rises, its price can explode higher………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Brent crude held above $100 a barrel on Wednesday, supported by fear that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) could cut supply if prices fall further, although data from major economies pointing to slower growth and fuel demand capped gains.
Oil has propped above $100 this week after calls from Opec oil hawks Venezuela and Iran for an emergency meeting ahead of one already scheduled on May 31………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran considers the logical price of crude to be around $100 to $120 a barrel, the Mehr News Agency quoted him as saying.”It is possible to reach an agreement on the issue of oil price without holding an emergency meeting,” he said.
Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel on Tuesday.OPEC’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Crude oil prices have recently dropped to near $101 ahead of the next OPEC meeting on May 31. “Negotiations and consultations have begun with OPEC members and it is likely that an agreement could be reached between the members without holding any extraordinary meeting,” Nikzad Rahbar said on Tuesday.
He noted that the OPEC members are all unanimous that oil prices should remain above $100 per barrel. “Under the present circumstances, $100 (per barrel) is a reasonable price for crude oil, but any price lower than that will be definitely unreasonable,” Nikzad Rahbar added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

While silver prices have definitely been battered in recent weeks, Neal Meader of Thomson Reuters GFMS suggested “unique factors” that contributed to the retreat in price may be overcome in the short term.
Meader, the head of precious metals research and forecasts for Thomson Reuters GFMS, cautioned that the lift, which originally wasn’t anticipated by Thomson Reuters GFMS until the second half of this year, could come sooner, briefly sending silver prices to $30 per ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global platinum market may deliver a deficit of 248koz this year, compared to 461koz last year. The deficit is also expected to touch 317koz in 2014, stated London based Barclays in its recent market analysis.
“Despite the weak demand backdrop, we expect supply to under perform, keeping the market in deficit. We forecast overall supply to fall by 3% y/y from a weak base year and global demand to fall by 5.4% y/y,” the bank added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity prices, on average, are down about 15%-20% from their all-time highs two years ago, but they remain very high relative to their 2001 lows.
The recent weakness in commodity prices could be explained by slower economic growth here and in places like China, but commodity prices are not weak enough to point to any monetary policy errors (i.e., deflationary risk)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel on Tuesday after manufacturing data from China pointed to a lukewarm recovery in the second quarter, denting the outlook for fuel demand in the world’s second largest oil consumer.
The flash HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index for April fell to 50.5 in April from 51.6 the month before as new export orders shrank in China, suggesting the country faces considerable headwinds………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran is currently negotiating with members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain oil prices around $100 in international markets, Iranian oil ministry spokesman Alireza Nikzad stated on Tuesday.
Iran considers the logical price of crude to be around $100 to $120 a barrel, the Mehr News Agency quoted him as saying………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Crude oil prices at “roughly” $100/barrel are required for future upstream investments in unconventional oil production as well as for the sustainability of producer governments, Xavier Preel, vice president for Middle East E&P at France’s Total, said Tuesday.
Speaking at the Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference in Abu Dhabi, Preel said that without the relatively high oil prices since 2005, upstream investment would not have seen the “fivefold increase” that has happened. “Without those prices, we would not be where we are today.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

The collapse in the price of gold has surprised many investors, but it really shouldn’t be for those who know their financial history.
Gold closed at an all-time high of $1,895 on Sept. 5, 2011. While it had dropped to $1,690 a year later, an upward swing caused many to predict that gold was again on the rise. Those predictions and the almost uninterrupted rally since 2002, when the precious metal was trading below $300, drove investor interest in gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Killian Charles, an analyst with Industrial Alliance in Montreal, isn’t too concerned if the gold price hits $1,300 an ounce or even $1,000. He’s more concerned with the gold breaking point. How low can the gold price go without breaking a project? Investors will be surprised to know that a wealth of junior miners are lean and mean enough to survive a pint-sized gold price.
Charles talks with The Gold Report about which companies have resized and redesigned their projects to make it in this unforgiving market. There’s an unspoken belief that, when you invest in a junior mining company, you’re essentially buying a portion of the deposit………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A sharp fall in commodity prices across segments in the past couple of months is expected to rescue India Inc from shrinking profitability in 2013-14.The fall is 15-20 per cent. Metal prices in India have fallen by seven to 10 per cent during the period.
Since mid-February, the commodities market has seen a reversal following the European debt crisis and fear of an early phasing out of the US Fed’s quantitative easing programme………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Crude can move either side of $100 a barrel with neither direction currently dominating, aside from a longer term bias for gradual gains, said the head of Vitol Group, the world’s largest privately held oil trader.
Brent crude futures sank below $100 on April 16 for the first time since July and have oscillated either side of that level in the days since, trading at $100.53 at 12:58 p.m. London time today on the ICE Futures Europe exchange………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver prices may average $26/oz in 2013 and $24/oz in 2014 and find better support at lower levels as industrial demand recovers, stated London based Barclays in its recent market analysis.
However, the market is set to deliver yet another sizeable surplus in 2013. In turn, growth in investor demand will be, yet again, key in driving prices higher………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The macro backdrop remains gold-supportive, and prices may average $1500/oz in the fourth quarter of 2013. Also, for 2013, prices are expected to average $1483/oz, stated London based Barclays in its recent market analysis.
Demand from India and China has responded strongly to lower gold prices but, according to Barclays, given the sizeable cash-negative ETP holdings at current price levels, the near term looks fragile and prices could be exposed to further downside risk………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Last Monday, the gold price suffered its greatest percentage fall in 30 years, as the Cyprus government pushes for the sale of its central bank’s gold reserves. On Tuesday, Brent crude dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time since July last year, while the copper price – a barometer of global industrial health, moved closer to $7,000 a tonne.
These price upheavals were triggered by slightly lower than expected gross domestic product growth in China, reviving fears of further slowdowns in the country’s economy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The precious metals have seen dramatic sell-offs before, although the primary difference between previous precious metal declines and the recent drop is the current shortage of physical metal.
It is also worth considering how well the commercial bullion traders are positioned for a rally after these past two days of sharply dropping prices, especially when the latest price drop came on top of a physical market signaling tightness all along………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices are expected to average $1483/oz in 2013 and $1450/oz in 2014. The commodity needs to find support from the physical market in the near term, stated London based Barclays in its recent market analysis.
After hitting its all-time high in September 2011, gold has had three failed attempts at the $1800/oz level, with the last one being after QE3 was announced in September 2012………………………………………..Full Article: Source

There have been many calls on peak oil – the tipping point at which global production reaches a peak – and, due to dwindling reserves, production declines, even if demand continues to rise. In reality, the industry and the technology have proved more resourceful than predictions have allowed and production has continued to rise.
Indeed, the recent opening up of tight oil reserves in the US heralds the possibility that the US may become self-sufficient in a number of years if rates of production growth continue………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Fortescue Metals chief executive Nev Power predicts the iron price will hover between $139 and $140 per tonne in the short term because of low iron ore stocks.
Australia’s third largest iron ore miner says the commodity will then trade between $120 to $130 a tonne for the foreseeable future, preventing a repeat of last year’s scare when the iron ore price tanked………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The collapse in commodities has not gone unnoticed. Words like depression and deflation are again being talked about and it is possible that the commodity collapse in gold, copper and oil is sending an ominous warning about the direction of the global economy. Even more it may force global central bankers to reassess policy and fight what commodities are saying could be a major global economic contraction or at the worst a deflationary downdraft.
Those concerns were raised by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who believes that inflation is dangerously low. While Mr. Bullard says he does not use gold as a barometer of inflation, his comments seem to suggest that he should be……………………………………..Full Article: Source

It isn’t news to anybody who follows markets that commodities in general and gold in particular have taken a beating in the last week or so. There is no shortage of people telling us that this is the harbinger of a collapse in stock prices. I disagree.
I have felt for a while that we are due, or even overdue, a correction in the stock market, but I can find little historical evidence that a quick decline in the price of gold or commodities in general signals a collapse. Some point to 1980, when that pattern did emerge, but that looks more like an isolated occurrence than a reliable indicator……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold may need to fall to as low as $1050 an ounce to bring its valuation versus other commodities such as oil and copper back to historical averages, Deutsche Bank AG said. Gold may have to trade at $1050 or $1500 for this to occur, Michael Lewis, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in London, said in a report.
“In our view, what had been a reliable source of positive returns for the past 12 years has ended,” he said. Gold for immediate delivery was at $1,394.04 an ounce at 11:49 a.m. in London…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Indian gold futures edged down, hovering near their lowest level in more than 18 months, weighed by a stronger rupee, giving an opportunity for physical traders to import in the middle of the wedding season.
The actively traded gold contract for June delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 52 rupees higher at 25,731 rupees per 10 grams, after hitting a low of 25,333 rupees earlier in the session, still near the level last seen in September 2011……………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is going to have to cut production to keep crude oil prices at a reasonable level, an energy consultant said. Crude oil prices for the Brent trade classification this week dropped to less than $100 per barrel for the first time since July. The OPEC basket price, a representation of the cartel’s export grades, is less than $100 as well.
Ali Aissaoui, a consultant at the Arab Petroleum Investments Corp., told Bloomberg News that OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia, needs prices around $94 per barrel to keep its federal budget in check. Iran, meanwhile, needs a price per barrel of around $125 to keep its budget balanced……………………………………..Full Article: Source

The sharp drop in gold prices in the past few trading days has overshadowed some general weakness in the commodity sector and coupled with lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, some market watchers are beginning to talk about the possibility of deflation.
Gold rebounded slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday from the sharp drop in prices on Friday and Monday, but still remains 17% off the high for the year and 28% from the all-time high, based on the June Comex contract’s settlement Tuesday of $1,387.40 an ounce. But other commodity markets are also weaker for the year, including crude oil, down 5%; copper, down 10%; and corn, down 8%, all based on Tuesday’s settlements for the most-active futures contracts…………………………………Full Article: Source

World gold prices will pick up over time as a global economic recovery gains traction, a senior official of China’s $482-billion sovereign wealth fund said on Wednesday.
Gold has fallen about 18 percent so far this year after an unbroken 12-year string of gains. It rebounded to $1,381.80 an ounce on Wednesday after tumbling to $1,321.35 the previous day…………………………………Full Article: Source

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said plunging gold prices this week aren’t necessarily a clear signal about the prospects for the global economy, saying base metals tend to be a better guide.
“You had a curious situation this week where there was an adjustment at a time when there was some surprise in economic data, so I would say that that’s more reflecting the specific market dynamics within that market,” Carney said at a press conference today in Ottawa…………………………………Full Article: Source

Sanctions-hit Iran considers the “logical” price of crude to be around $100 to $120 a barrel, its oil ministry said on Wednesday, ahead of an OPEC meeting next month. “The logical price for oil is around 100 and 120 dollars a barrel,” ministry spokesman Alireza Nikzad said.
Oil prices were mixed in trade on Wednesday. New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in May, fell 10 cents to $88.66 a barrel but Brent North Sea crude for June was up 11 cents at $100.20. The Brent contract on Tuesday fell below the $100 mark for the first time since July…………………………………Full Article: Source

Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi says crude prices are unlikely to fall below USD 100 a barrel and that the downward trend has stopped. “We forecast that the price of oil will not fall below USD 100 a barrel,” Qasemi told reporters on Wednesday on the sidelines of an Oil and Gas Show in Tehran.
“…oil prices below USD 100 per barrel is not reasonable and it’s an unreasonable price,” he said. Qasemi added that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would envisage calling an emergency meeting if prices fall below USD 100…………………………………Full Article: Source

The fall in oil prices from this year’s high since mid-February shows that the market is sufficiently supplied, said Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency, adding that the slide may help the global economy.
Brent crude sank below $100 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time in nine months after data from China and the United States weakened the outlook for demand. The benchmark has mostly held above $100 a barrel since 2011 on supply worries that started with the civil unrest in Libya and then were boosted by escalating tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme…………………………………Full Article: Source

The fall in oil prices from this year’s high since mid-February shows that the market is sufficiently supplied, said Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency, adding that the slide may help the global economy.
Brent crude sank below $100 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time in nine months after data from China and the United States weakened the outlook for demand. The benchmark has mostly held above $100 a barrel since 2011 on supply worries that started with the civil unrest in Libya and then were boosted by escalating tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme…………………………………Full Article: Source

Speculation on the cause is rife but one thing is certain – gold’s special place in finance means there will be repercussions. After years of attracting strong demand from fearful investors, a crash in gold prices on Monday caught the financial world on the hop.
In London the price was officially “fixed” at $1,395 per troy ounce, down 9.2% from Friday. Eight hours later on the New York market, the price for immediate delivery was down 9.1% from Friday at $1,365 an ounce. Most other commodity prices fell in gold’s wake. By Monday evening Brent oil fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since July 2012…………………………………….Full Article: Source

The average price of benchmark OPEC crudes ended its longest run above $100 a barrel after dropping below that level for the first time since July amid signs the global economic recovery is faltering.
The so-called OPEC basket, a weighted average of the main grades produced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, slipped to $98.56 a barrel yesterday, according to an e-mail today from the group’s Vienna-based secretariat. It’s the first time OPEC’s reference price slipped below $100 since July 16 and ends an unprecedented 191-day spell above that threshold…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Brent crude sank below $100 a barrel for the first time in nine months on Tuesday, extending a recent rout triggered by data from China and the US that weakened the outlook for demand.
Earlier in the session, the dismal outlook pushed gold to a more than two-year low and shaved more than $2 off oil prices. As the day progressed, gold and precious metals bounced back but oil was unable to move into positive territory…………………………………….Full Article: Source

An Iranian Oil Ministry official says Iran will ask OPEC to call an emergency meeting to discuss oil prices if they slump below USD 100 a barrel. “To that effect, Iran’s oil minister [Rostam Qasemi] will have telephone conservation with OPEC president about an extraordinary meeting,” the official, who was not named, said Monday.
On Sunday, Qasemi said Iran wanted oil prices to stay above USD 100 per barrel, noting that “an oil price below USD 100 is not reasonable for anyone.” Crude dropped to near USD 101 on Friday and ahead of the next meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on May 31………………………………………..Full Article: Source