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Commodities Briefing - Category | Price Watch more

Rises in yields, commodities hint at global reflation

Posted on 07 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A rapid revival of commodity prices and a sudden sell-off in top-rated, low-yielding bonds have signalled the passing of this year’s global deflation scare, forcing a rethink of both the consumer price outlook and investments worldwide.
The epicentre of the rapid slide in bond prices has been the euro zone, where yields on 10-year German paper have more than quadrupled to 0.595 percent in just five days, erasing all the price gains made this year. Specific triggers for the turnaround since last week are hard to identify, but the continued recovery of oil prices and news of the euro zone emerging from four months of deflation may have been tipping points………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price rises above $US60 as commodity’s bull run continues

Posted on 07 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil extended its advance above $US60 a barrel on signs the US supply glut is easing. Futures gained as much as 1 per cent in New York, rising from the highest close since December. Crude inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels through May 1, the first drop in industry data in eight weeks, the American Petroleum Institute was said to have reported Tuesday.
An increase of 1.5 million barrels is forecast in a Bloomberg survey before a government report Wednesday. Oil is recovering from a six-year low in March as US companies reduced the number of active rigs to the fewest since September 2010, bolstering speculation that output will slow………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why the oil price will keep rising - in five charts

Posted on 07 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices have hit new highs for 2015, with Opec having won its war. Here are five charts which explain why it will keep on going. Oil prices have pushed new highs for 2015 this week and continue to defy the forecasts of many analysts who have tipped prices to return to levels of around $50 per barrel.
However, a collapse in drilling work in North America; turmoil across the Middle East and the hope that China’s economy will stage a recovery in the second half of this year have all acted to support prices close to $70 per barrel. Here are five charts that prove the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has already won its oil price war that was launched in November………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Great Oil Price Recovery Of 2015: Wait, What?

Posted on 07 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In one month, oil prices soared $15 a barrel during a season when historical prices tend towards weakness. This at the same time that criticism of shale producers for wasting money is in the headlines, as well as suggestions that the current price is roughly enough to cause a drilling turn around.
Given the weakness in the upstream sector, this is as welcome as a rope to a man in quicksand. The price bears who thought rising inventories would mean continuing weakness, with prices as low as $20, are eating crow, but that’s a regular menu item for bulls and bears in this business………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What’s next for oil prices?

Posted on 07 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Has the recent historic drop in crude oil prices reversed course? American consumers have been watching as gasoline prices have been creeping upward in recent weeks, although pump prices are still on average more than dollar lower per gallon than they were this time last year.
But industry analysts are divided about where prices on the global oil market will be heading during the next several months. Andrew Critchlow, commodities editor at The Telegraph, recently submitted five reasons he believes the oil prices will keep rising………………………………………..Full Article: Source

CPM Group Calling for Silver Price Consolidation in 2015

Posted on 07 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

CPM Group released its Silver Yearbook 2015 on Wednesday, and while the document is aimed at educating investors about silver market trends and fundamentals, it likely contains few surprises for those who’ve kept an ear to the ground.
For one thing, the firm cautions readers not to expect anything too dramatic this year in terms of silver price action. Instead, it’s calling for silver price consolidation as the US economy and dollar continue to strengthen. Specifically, CPM sees the silver price averaging $16.93 per ounce in 2015, with the metal trading in a range of $15.66 to $18.51………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi: ‘Only Allah can set the price of oil’

Posted on 06 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has turned to divinity over the issue of slumping prices in oil, claiming that “it’s up to Allah”. Speaking to CNBC, oil minister Ali al-Naimi said that “no one can set the price of oil – it’s up to Allah”.
Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest producer of oil and, while oil prices have been staying low on the market, the country has decided to increase its production of the substance rather than cut it. Sanctions currently placed on Iran could soon be lifted as part of international nuclear negotiations, which would mean the country’s crude oil would come back on to the market and cause prices to plunge further………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Prices Are Rebounding Now, But A Permanent Plunge May Be Coming

Posted on 06 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent fall in oil prices has received so much coverage that its recent recovery is almost unnoticed by the wider market. And yet oil has recovered exactly as predicted and to the point generally predicted by most experts, high enough to support the continued flow of much of the unconventional oil which the market was consuming before the price spike led to temporary excess capacity. The drop was self-correcting.
The sell off in energy stocks triggered by this market event was indiscriminate. Even SolarCity wasn’t immune, though it is quite hard to make a case that it’s current business model is threatened by cheap oil. But will that always be the case?……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold price holds below $1,200

Posted on 06 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold held below $1,200 an ounce before U.S. monthly jobs data later this week that may provide indications on when the Federal Reserve will boost interest rates. Gold last week erased this year’s gains after the Fed said U.S. growth will rebound, damping speculation that rate rises may be delayed amid mixed data on the economy.
Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said on Monday the central bank should wait for more evidence wages are rising before boosting rates. Higher rates hurt the allure of gold, which usually only provides a return if prices rise. “The market will remain focused on the U.S. payrolls number to be released this week,” Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. wrote in an e-mailed note. “A weak print could see gold push above $1,200 an ounce.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Will Strong China Oil Demand Boost Energy Prices?

Posted on 05 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Chinese implied oil demand rose 7.7% in the first quarter of 2015, posing upside potential to estimates for this year’s prices. The slowing economy in China likely means the remaining quarters of this year won’t mirror the start of the year. But Barclays analysts Chi Zhang, Miswin Mahesh, Michael Cohen and Warren Russell write:
“Chinese implied oil demand in the first quarter (adjusted for inventories) was up 7.7% year over year, the strongest quarterly growth since fourth quarter of 2012. The momentum has accelerated relative to the 2.4% y/y growth averaged over 2014, helped by rising consumer demand and a weak oil price. Further, the momentum diverges from the trend in underlying economic data during the first quarter period, affecting industrial demand for oil. Real GDP grew by 7.0% y/y, down from 7.4% in the fourth quarter and versus full-year 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC blames speculation for much of the drop in oil prices

Posted on 05 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil supply and demand don’t fully justify the 60 per cent drop in prices between June and January as speculation also played a role, OPEC said. A rise in supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at a time when demand for oil was weak was the main reason for the drop, OPEC said in its monthly bulletin on Monday.
Brent oil, benchmark for more than half of the world’s crude, tumbled from mid-June to a six-year low in January as U.S. output climbed to the highest level in more than four decades and OPEC members pumped more barrels. “There was one other important factor that contributed to the downturn, especially as the price decline gained momentum,” OPEC said. “That was speculation.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold Long-term Outlook for Massive Parabolic Run to $5,000

Posted on 05 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In order to comprehend why the long-term outlook for gold (and silver) is so positive you only have to understand that global debt and balance sheets are set to expand indefinitely. The controllers of the system had the chance to demand that the books be balanced back in the financial crisis of 2008 - 2009, but they weren’t interested - they were much more interested in taking the easy way out and lining their own pockets at the expense of society at large, by printing vast quantities of money which they gifted to themselves, and fleecing savers via zero and now negative interest rates.
They were then able to use their Central Bank generated cash handouts to make even more money by speculating in global property and stockmarkets, and magnify their gains even more via the carry trade………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Biggest commodity price fall since 2008 in April, led by dairy

Posted on 04 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

New Zealand commodity prices had their biggest decline since the height of the global financial crisis in 2008, led by falling dairy product prices. The ANZ Commodity Price Index fell 7.4 percent in April, the biggest decline since October 2008, when it fell by the same amount. The latest decline has reversed most of the gains seen since the start of the year, with prices 15 percent lower than a year ago.
Dairy product prices led declines, down 15 percent to be a third lower than a year ago, on weaker milk powder and butter prices. Fonterra Cooperative Group, the world’s biggest dairy exporter, last week cut its forecast payout to farmers for the current season to $4.50 per kilogram of milk solids from $4.70/kgMS, blaming volatile global commodity prices and an over-supply in international markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Forward oil prices anchor around $75: Kemp

Posted on 04 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Market participants expect the price of Brent to average around $75 per barrel through the rest of the decade, not much above the current level. Spot Brent prices have risen around $20 per barrel from their mid-January low, from $46 to $66, an increase of more than 40 percent.
Over the same period, however, futures prices for oil delivered at the end of 2017 have increased just $4.50 per barrel and remain semi-fixed a little over $70. As spot prices have risen, the slope of the forward curve has become flatter, ensuring prices for 2017 and beyond are almost unchanged……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil Builds Bullish Momentum Following Breakout

Posted on 04 May 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Much like gold, this past week was an interesting week for oil which until Thursday, had struggled to breach the well developed area of resistance that had been building in the $58.50 per barrel region on the daily chart, above. Until then, oil had struggled to continue its recent bullish momentum, trading between the ceiling of resistance at this level, and the floor of support in the $55.80 per barrel region.
However, with the arrival of two pivot lows, the current bullish tone for the commodity was established. Wednesday’s run higher was also accompanied by good volume, with Thursday’s price action then taking oil through the key $58.50 level, a price point I have highlighted several times in previous market analyses………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index Tumbles in March, but Will Strengthen in April

Posted on 30 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After rallying in February, Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index dropped by 3.7% in March, as oil prices retreated once again. The All Items Index is at its lowest level since January 2007 and is 32.8% below a year earlier.
“The good news is a spring rally has emerged in April, with price gains for oil and base metals,” said Patricia Mohr, Vice President of Economics and Commodity Market Specialist at Scotiabank. “West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices have rallied back over US$57 in late April, as U.S. Department of Energy data indicates that U.S. shale oil production levelled out at about 5.618 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April and may edge down to 5.561 mb/d in May………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Where From Here For The Oil Price?

Posted on 30 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The first topsy-turvy quarter of the current oil trading year is behind us, with both benchmarks – Brent and WTI – currently trading above the stated period’s average price well in to the second quarter. In fact, some commentators are quite keen to flag-up the fact that both benchmarks are hovering around price levels not seen since mid-December.
Using Brent, the global proxy benchmark, as a measuring rod – it is also worth remembering that mid-December’s mid-$60 per barrel price level was a decline from a higher mark, that continued into the next month with bearishness entrenched all around. April’s return to the stated level achieved recently is part of a price uptick, if not some sort of an overblown bullish rally………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How Low Can Oil Prices Go?

Posted on 30 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In recent months, Americans have been greeted with relatively cheap gas upon filling up at the pump. Oil prices are experiencing record lows and gasoline prices are at the lowest levels the market has seen since 2010, with some areas of the country enjoying prices of less than $2 a gallon. While this comes as a welcome development for consumers, oil companies are struggling with choosing market share over profitability.
As prices fall, what are the short- and long-term implications for the oil industry? Will consumers continue to line their pockets as domestic and global oil prices plummet? This article will break down the causes for the current price drop in the oil market and the outlook on oil prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why investors shouldn’t count on oil price stability

Posted on 30 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

If you’ve been following the Bank of Canada’s utterances lately, you know that a consistent and pretty optimistic story is emerging about how the economy is going to unfold this year.
Governor Stephen Poloz’s view is that Canada’s growth will start to rebound this quarter, then really take off in the second half, thanks to a burgeoning U.S. economy, stronger manufacturing and export sector, and, oh yes, stable oil prices. No doubt, a lot could go wrong and may already have………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rising US rates could trigger higher gold prices – GFMS

Posted on 30 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A contrarian consensus has emerged whereby higher US rates, when in effect, are expected to trigger higher gold prices, while usually higher interest rates in a low inflationary environment would negatively impact the price of gold, as a non-yielding asset class, Thomson Reuters GFMS market analysts have reported.
The idea that prices will rise is based on the assumption that the market has already anticipated the rate increase, more than pricing it in, explains the GFMS metals research and forecasts team in the first of its new ‘Quarterly update and outlook’ reports, which supplements the yearly ‘Gold Survey’……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Do Oil Price Trends Have a Clear Direction?

Posted on 29 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

First, the price of oil surged this morning as reports came in on social media of an incident in Iran. Then, it dropped rapidly as the details showed the incident as a confrontation between Iranian warships and a Marshall Islands-flagged cargo ship. Such is the oil market these days.
Months after plummeting and holding all markets hostage during a sell-off few had expected– but weeks after a bounce-back rally–oil traders now have very itchy trigger fingers. In the very near term, traders and strategists are looking at the fundamentals and saying oil simply can’t jump too high. The facts are: stockpiles are at an 80-year high and there remains a massive global glut of crude. With the market still vastly oversupplied, prices should be lower………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver price could eventually outperform gold – UBS

Posted on 29 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The silver price could eventually outperform that of gold in percentage terms, UBS said, highlighting the metal’s encouraging performance so far in 2015. Silver was last at $16.36 per ounce, up four percent on the start of the year. It peaked at $18.49 in January and bottomed out at lows of $15.29 in March.
It is outperforming gold so far this year – the yellow metal started 2015 at $1,189 per ounce and was last at $1,200, up one percent. “Silver had been underperforming gold for most of April, with the gold:silver ratio rising from the low 70s towards the highs around 75. The underperformance was likely in large part due to positioning,” UBS’ Edel Tully said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Where to next for the iron ore price?

Posted on 29 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iron ore rose to its highest level since March last night at $US59.09, and is now up 25 per cent for the month. The rise, which follows BHP Billiton’s decision last week to slow the pace of its $US2 billion expansion plan in the Pilbara, comes after the iron ore price suffered its largest quarterly loss since 2009 in the three months through March and fell to a decade-low of $US47.08 a tonne earlier this month. Steel demand in China was down 5 per cent year-on-year during the March quarter.
The biggest question facing the industry is whether BHP’s slowdown will be matched by Rio, Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill project or Vale, which is halfway through a $US19 billion expansion in Northern Brazil………………………………………..Full Article: Source

BofA raises oil price forecasts for 2016

Posted on 28 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has revised upward its oil price forecasts for 2016, but said it remained bearish amid oversupply, weak demand from emerging markets, a return of U.S. shale production and expectations of a deal on Iran.
The bank raised its outlook for Brent next year to $62 per barrel from $58, but kept its WTI outlook unchanged at $57, as it expects only a moderate draw in global inventories. For 2015, BofA saw Brent averaging $58 per barrel and WTI at $53. The bank had previously forecast Brent at an average of $52 this year, and WTI at $50………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investors Step Up Bets on Oil Price Recovery

Posted on 28 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors last week pushed the number of bets that oil prices would rise to a record high, even as some market observers worry prices could slip in the short-term. Net long positions taken by large investors in futures and options contracts that the price of Brent crude oil would increase rose 3.2% during the past week, according to the Commitment of Traders report from Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
That pushed the total number of bets that oil prices will rise to a net 271,929 contracts, the highest level since the report was first prepared in 2011. With a contract equivalent to 1,000 barrels of oil, that represents the equivalent of nearly 272 million barrels of crude oil at stake………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why this oil price collapse could be different

Posted on 28 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Unlike the 1980s, electricity prices should hold firm, but we should not be complacent about fixing our energy policy. The recent oil price collapse seems like a replay of a bad 1980s movie that we’ve seen before. If we are not careful, we’ll be doomed to make the same mistakes we made last time, allowing our domestic oil and gas producers to wither, watching energy imports soar, prematurely stunting the growth of alternative fuel sources, and tossing conservation and efficiency by the wayside.
If we are smart we’ll seize this opportunity to double-down on good energy policies and support all of our domestic energy producers so that we’re prepared for the next time oil prices spike………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Africa and commodity prices: No longer the kiss of death

Posted on 24 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In 2014 commodity prices tumbled. Many economists feared the worst for Africa. For decades the continent has been hopelessly dependent on commodities to power economic growth. When prices crashed, economies would go into tailspin. This time around, though, things seem different. The continent is holding up well.
The map above looks at how forecasts from the International Monetary Fund for African growth in 2015-16 have changed in the past year. Compared to what they were predicting in April 2014, the IMF now expects economic growth to fall in most African economies. For instance, the IMF now expects Nigeria to grow by 10% over the next two years, whereas in April 2014 it had predicted growth of 14%. Thus growth expectations have fallen by 4 percentage points, as the map’s colouring shows…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper: What’s in store for the metal in FY16?

Posted on 24 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Copper prices may remain under pressure as the new mine supply will exceed the rate of copper consumption by about 1.5% per annum. In India, domestic metal demand growth is likely for FY16.
Copper market will be driven by fear of oversupply in the coming years. Prices are also likely to be under pressure. A report by India Ratings(Ind-Ra) says copper market is likely to be in a physical surplus for the coming two to three years. Fitch Ratings see a downside risk to copper prices. While the demand-supply situation till 2014 was more evenly balanced for copper than for aluminium, there is an expectation of oversupply…………………………………..Full Article: Source

The fossil fuelled economy

Posted on 23 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The price of oil has historically had a huge affect on the global economy but how does it impact on our lives in general? Our research has unearthed some fascinating facts in the event of oil price fluctuations. The impact of oil price changes meant average car insurance premiums increased by 2% (a whopping £12m) in the final quarter of 2014, which was the first quarterly increase since 2011.
We also found some more unusual truths, such as reductions in crude oil prices could drop the price of synthetic condoms, therefore increasing the potential of safe sex. Read on for more intriguing factors that are affected by price movements of oil……………………………………Full Article: Source

Pricing Up Oil Worry on Shell’s BG Deal

Posted on 23 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What is a merger without a bit of arbitrage? Ask Royal Dutch Shell and BG Group. Pentwater Capital Management this week became the first big merger arbitrage fund to disclose a position in BG, after Shell’s $70 billion cash-and-stock deal to buy the U.K. oil and gas company.
But with the deal not slated to close until early next year, and requiring approval from several regulators, other arbitrage funds will likely move slowly in putting on trades, especially with few obvious counter-bidders……………………………………Full Article: Source

Wall Street Bets on Oil Price Rally

Posted on 23 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

If the whims of speculators are anything to go by, then oil markets are poised for a rebound. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show that bullish positions on WTI have reached their highest levels in eight months. Speculators make bets on the price of crude — long or short — depending on where they think prices are heading. Not since the end of the summer in 2014 have so many investors put money on the line, betting on a price rise.
Obviously, elite investors are not always right. Few saw the bust coming. But the mounting belief that the worst is over for oil provides a bit of evidence that prices could be on the mend……………………………………Full Article: Source

Is The Oil Price Now In A Big Gap For Investors?

Posted on 23 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Leading oil stocks have already run hard - over 100% off the bottom and some are even up Year-Over-Year. Tier 2 oil stocks started to move in last week’s rally - should they be bought? Euphoria may move the group, but quarterly financials could be a regular rude awakening.
I think investors are in the middle of a Big Gap in oil stocks. The Leaders have already run so hard they’re pricing in $75-$80 oil - so there’s not much value or leverage there. But the Laggards need even higher oil prices than that to really work: $90-$100……………………………………Full Article: Source

Gold seesaws around $1,200/oz

Posted on 23 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The gold market is stuck in a holding pattern. Gold for June delivery was little changed at $1,202.50 an ounce by 7:37 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices have alternated between daily gains and losses for the past week and a measure of 60-day volatility dropped to the lowest since November. Trading volume was 15 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day.
The market has fluctuated around $1,200 an ounce since late March as concerns over Greek debt talks offset rising equities. Greece has been struggling to make progress toward releasing financial aid since striking a deal to extend its bailout program in February……………………………………Full Article: Source

Iron Ore Price Outlook Cut by World Bank as Supplies to Expand

Posted on 23 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iron ore will lead declines among metals this year as the biggest producers in Australia and Brazil expand low-cost supplies further while demand remains weak, according to the World Bank, which cut price forecasts.
The raw material will average $63 a metric ton this year, the Washington-based lender said in its quarterly commodities report on Wednesday. That compares with the estimate of $75 given in the bank’s January’s report. The forecast for 2016 was cut to $66.60 from $77.90……………………………………Full Article: Source

Expert: No conditions for oil price bouncing back to $100/barrel

Posted on 22 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

There are no conditions to restore oil prices at their previous level of $ 100 per barrel or more in the short and medium term, Anton Soroko, analyst of Russia’s Finam Investment Holding told Trend April 21. “A qualitative breakthrough in the global GDP growth rates and the expansion of oil consumption are required to increase the oil prices up to $100-120 per barrel.
“We have not seen such preconditions yet,” he said. “At the same time, oil prices will continue restoring slowly. They will reach $70-80 per barrel by late 2015 and early 2016.” Soroko said that the oil prices approximately $50-60 per barrel are not very interesting for manufacturers of highly viscous and hard-to-reach oil, shale oil…………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Oil Price Reaches Minimum - Lukoil President

Posted on 22 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The world price of oil has hit a low end, Lukoil President Vagit Alekperov said. Global oil prices have dropped by some 50 percent since summer 2014, damaging economies heavily reliant on energy exports, including Russia. “I personally believe that the price has reached its minimum,” Alekperov said.
Alekperov pointed out to the great reduction in drilling in the United States as proof. “That shows clearly that there is a certain stress on services and companies,” he added. In November 2014, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided not to reduce oil output levels, which prompted an even greater slump in prices…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil unlikely to hit new 2015 lows, say traders

Posted on 22 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices could weaken again but they are unlikely to plumb new depths this year, leading commodities traders said on Tuesday, citing strengthening demand. Ian Taylor, head of the world’s largest oil trader, Vitol, told Reuters he thought global benchmark Brent crude oil, which tumbled 60% to just above US$45 (RM163) a barrel in January, could dip again briefly.
But the oil market had likely already seen its 2015 lows. “We will probably see one more dip in the second quarter but prices probably won’t go below this year’s lows,” Taylor told Reuters on the sidelines of the FT Commodities Summit in Lausanne…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Experts see gold prices trending to $1100/ounce

Posted on 22 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

According to Victor Thianpiriya, commodity strategist, ANZ Research, gold will still make a positive investment over the next two -three years and global gold prices could head to USD 1100 per ounce levels over the next few months.
Today is Akshaya Tritiya, an auspicious day to purchase gold. The word “Akshaya” means the never diminishing in Sanskrit and the day is believed to bring good luck and success. The legend is that any venture initiated on the auspicious day of Akshaya Tritiya continues to grow and bring prosperity. Hence, the day is considered auspicious for starting new ventures and buying gold…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Price Forecast for Aluminum, Copper 2015

Posted on 22 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As we’ve heard many times before from our readers, conference attendees and loyal followers, “We’re not as interested in where metal prices have been, we’re much more interested in where prices are going.”
We at MetalMiner have done our best to heed the call, from our daily coverage all the way up to our monthly metal price forecast offerings, and with bearish markets prevailing we thought it best to provide an update for aluminum, copper, steel and stainless markets…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Worst may be behind silver price – BoA Merrill Lynch

Posted on 21 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The worst may be over for the silver price, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research said, though the metal is unlikely to break higher from recent ranges. Industrial demand has been poor and subdued economic activity in the wake of the financial crisis has had a collateral impact on the metal, it said in a report.
Silver is down nearly 70 percent on the all-time high it hit in 2011 at $49.81 per ounce. But China’s market potential coupled with expansion plans that include heavy use of solar energy may provide upward impetus. Large volumes of silver are used in photovoltaic technology to generate solar power. While estimations differ, around 3 million ounces of silver are required to generate around 1 gigawatt of solar power. ………………………………….Full Article: Source

Goldman Sachs “very bearish” on copper price outlook

Posted on 21 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs expects the price of copper to fall to $5,200 per tonne or lower over the next twelve months, as a result of falling demand from China and a stronger US dollar. “We are very bearish on the outlook for copper over the next twelve to 18 months”, Goldman Sachs’ executive director for commodities, Max Layton, said during the Cesco week in Santiago, Chile.
“We have a very strong conviction that the copper prices are going to fall to $5,200 [per tonne], if not lower, over the next twelve months”, he added. A key indicator is the recent drop in steel demand from China, which has been falling by 5% year-on-year for the last six months. “Steel demand is declining and in history that is extremely rare,” Layton said…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper bulls are backing away

Posted on 21 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors are backing away from copper after the biggest two-month rally since 2012. The problem is that demand is slowing in China, which accounts for about half of global copper use. Producers including Freeport-McMoRan say Chinese buying hasn’t picked up as it normally does at this time of year, and Goldman Sachs Group and Societe Generale SA are among banks predicting lower prices.
The metal is losing its appeal for money managers, who have reduced their net-long positions for two straight weeks, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Analysts, traders and hedge funds surveyed by Bloomberg last week were split on the price outlook, assessing rising inventories and prospects for reduced China consumption against aging mines that will mean limited supply gains…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Researchers Warn of Global Oil Price Crisis as Investors Shy Away

Posted on 20 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The drop oil prices has changed the longstanding laws of the energy market and made investors deeply insecure about financing expensive projects in the future. The risk of a global oil crisis has increased and investors are becoming more and more cautious about financing expensive projects, according to a study by the Hamburg Research Office Energycomment, presented by the German magazine “Der Spiegel”.
The researchers stated that low oil prices resulted in a drastic cut of investments in long-term energy projects, including the development of the Arctic and production of synthetic and biological fuels. Oil prices have almost halved since the summer of 2014, and currently lie below the level of 60 dollars per barrel. For the first time, the drop was caused not by an economic crisis, but tough competition in the global oil market, experts claim……………………………………Full Article: Source

Nigeria, Algeria See Oil Prices Staying Low for a Long Time

Posted on 20 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices are likely to stay low for a long time after falling more than 40 percent in the past year, said officials from two OPEC nations. Nigeria and Algeria both warned that oil prices, currently at around $60 a barrel, probably won’t recover to the 2011-2013 level of more than $100 a barrel.
“You forecast at your own risk, but it seems to me that we should be regarding this as a permanent shock,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Nigerian finance minister, said on a panel discussion Sunday in Washington near the end of the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings. “We should prepare our economies for that eventuality.”…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices about to catch fire as global financial markets tumble?

Posted on 20 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Should you be stocking up on gold bullion now or waiting to see if the price correction ever reaches the miraculous 50 per cent expected by the chartists? As ever there are no sure answers but the risk-reward ratio is stacked in favor of buying bullion now and riding out any further correction, if it actually happens.
Generals are forever fighting the last war, and so it is in financial markets. Recent memory focuses on the 2008-9 crash. Then gold went down with all ships. However, as a precedent this is weak as gold has done much better in many past financial crises and so the next one could very easily be different……………………………………Full Article: Source

Price controls on oil to halve global growth boost: IMF

Posted on 16 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Countries that fail to pass on steep declines in global oil prices to consumers could cost the world half a per cent in economic growth next year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Modelling by the IMF in its April World Economic Outlook report predicts GDP growth of 3.5 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent next year.
The report shows the oil slump could boost GDP in 2016 by 1 per cent, excluding nations that are increasing their oil supply. But that assumes a complete “pass-through” of the low prices. Countries such as Russia, India, China and Brazil, which manage their oil prices, would halve the 1 per cent gain by using the oil windfall to prop up their nations’ finances instead………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil just hit $56 — its highest price in 2015

Posted on 16 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil peaked above $56 for the first time in 2015 on Wednesday. It’s the fifth straight day the price for a barrel of oil has nudged up. Investors are cheering and buying energy stocks while American drivers are cringing at the prospect of higher costs at the pump.
Consumers have loved low gas prices this year. The average gallon of gas costs a mere $2.39. That’s way below the average a year ago, $3.63, according to AAA, although it’s off the rock bottom levels of $2 a gallon that many Americans saw around the New Year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

BofA Merrill Lynch: Gold “could rise to $1,500/oz by 2017″

Posted on 16 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) analysts believe the worst may be over for gold. According to a recent report, they see gold reaching $1,500/oz. by 2017. At the same time, a global BofAML survey revealed concerns of overvaluation in the equity and bond markets. A press release on the survey reads: “Bonds Seen as Most Overvalued in Survey’s History”
The issue of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has been pressuring gold, but BofAML analysts believe gold will prevail: “We believe the upcoming Fed rate hike is the only major obstacle to sustained price rises.” They do expect the Fed to raise interest rates, but not sharply, and think gold may have already seen the worst of it: “While a normalization in rates is likely, aggressive rate hikes are not our base case, which is a reason we believe the worst may be over for goldafter the dreadful price collapse in 2013 and muted price movements in 2014.” [emphasis added]……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold Bullion To Max Out At $5,000 Per Ounce

Posted on 16 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Renowned financial analysts and trends forecaster Martin Armstrong has said that gold will “probably max out at $5,000 per ounce” as “people lose confidence in government” and that we will see riots and unrest globally in the coming months – the fall of this year.
It a very interesting interview with Greg Hunter of the excellent USAWatchdog.com, Armstrong says: “Gold rises when people lose confidence in government. It has nothing to do with inflation. So, when you start to worry about government is not going to survive or who’s going to win, that’s when gold rises. Short term, we still have the risk of it going under $1,000 per ounce. It’s going to flip when everything is right. It will probably max out at $5,000 per ounce.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Copper may fall below $5,000/t next year: BofAML

Posted on 16 April 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Copper prices have fallen YTD, despite significant production disruptions. This suggests that the commodity is on track to move into surplus and BofAML see prices fall below $5,000/t ($2.26/lb) next year. Copper has been the underperformer in the base metals complex since the beginning of 2014. This is heavily influenced by an unfolding switch in market balances from deficits to surpluses.
The challenging fundamental backdrop has also been reflected YTD, with copper falling by around 5% in 1Q15, despite close to 500kt of supply disruptions, equivalent to what we had allowed for the entire first half of 2015………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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