West Texas Intermediate crude swung between gains and losses after rising the most in a week. OPEC was forecast to increase crude exports this month to meet rising demand from Asian refiners.
Futures fluctuated in New York, heading for the first weekly decline in four weeks. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will ship 23.87 million barrels a day in the four weeks to June 1, up from 23.65 million in the previous period to May 4, Oil Movements, a tanker tracker, said in a report. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold, down 17% since January, is poised to lose 20% in a year as inflation fails to accelerate and with the worst risks to the global economy waning, Credit Suisse Group AG said.
Gold will trade at $1,100 an ounce in a year and below $1,000 in five years, according to Ric Deverell, head of commodities research at the bank. Lower prices are unlikely to lure more central-bank buying, said Deverell, who worked at the Reserve Bank of Australia for 10 years before joining Credit Suisse in 2010………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A year ago, the technical picture suggested that the market was coming to a major change that could have been several hundred dollars up or down. My brain said it could be down, but my heart said up and I stuck with my heart.
Even after this takedown, I still don’t believe that the secular bull market that’s been ongoing for 12 years has come to an end. I still believe we’ll have a two in front of the gold price before it ends. We’re going to have to get to $2,000/ounce ($2,000/oz) before there’s any decision on my part about the end of the bull run………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Looking back at the articles I’ve written about silver over the years, if there’s one theme that keeps recurring, it’s the word: ‘frustrating’. Silver can meander about and do nothing for years. Then, when your back’s turned, it’ll suddenly spike to unheard-of levels, making its owners rich.
Then, just as suddenly, it’ll plummet, leaving all those who hold the metal heading for the poor house. Yet, for all its volatility, for all the dark rumours of shortages and manipulation, it trades in a remarkably symmetrical pattern………………………………………..Full Article: Source

New York-based commodities research consultants, CPM Group, forecast that silver prices will weaken further this year, “weighed down primarily by the increased price sensibility among investors.” “Prices could potentially decline as low as $24 during the year,” CPM warned in its Silver Yearbook 2013, which was made public Thursday.
Prices averaged US$31.17 last year, down 11.7% from the record nominal annual average high or $35.29 in 2011. “Investors were interested in owning silver, but were only willing to buy more when prices softened. When prices rose they stepped away from making fresh purchases and often sold into the price rally,” said CPM…………………………………………Full Article: Source

No one—aside maybe from survivalists who’d stocked up on MREs and assault rifles—was really looking forward to a peak-oil world. Read this 2007 GQ piece by Benjamin Kunkel—while we’re discussing topics from the mid-2000s—that imagines what a world without oil would really be like. Think uncomfortable and violent.
Oil is in nearly every modern product we use, and it’s still what gets us from point A to point B—especially if you need to get from A to B in a plane. If we were really to see the global oil supply peak and decline sharply, even as demand continued to go up, well, apocalyptic might not be too large a word…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Copper prices fell to a two-year low earlier this month. The other London-traded base metals followed a similar pattern. In what we view as merely extremely oversold conditions, copper staged a mighty 10% rally. The other metals consolidated but continued to hover near their lows.
An indication, perhaps, that the recovery in copper prices was tied more to short covering than a resurgence in demand for industrial metals. Indeed, we find that the supply/demand situation for copper continues to head in a bearish direction…………………………………….Full Article: Source

European officials have begun investigating several big oil companies including Shell, BP and Norway’s Statoil over suspected attempts to manipulate global oil prices for more than a decade.
The European Commission said anti-trust officials had carried out unannounced inspections in three European countries on Tuesday………………………………………Full Article: Source

Jim Rogers recently said in an interview to Morningstar, that he is not disturbed by the recent tumble in gold prices. “Gold had gone up 12 years in a row, without a down year, which is extremely unusual in any asset. Equally important, gold has only had one 30% correction in 12 years.
Again, that is extremely unusual. Most things correct 30-40% every year or two. So the action in gold has been very unique and gold needed a correction. The main thing that caused it, as far as I am concerned, was that the market was ready. It needed it and it is good for gold to have a proper correction,” said Rogers. We agree. At the same time we would like to point out that this has no implications on the short term………………………………………Full Article: Source

Crude oil prices slipped Friday on renewed global demand worries after OPEC left its 2013 estimate unchanged and reported increased output in April. New York’s main contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for June delivery, closed at $96.04 a barrel, down 35 cents from Thursday.
In London trade, Brent North Sea crude for June settled 56 cents lower at $103.91 a barrel. The WTI futures contract sank more than $3 before pulling back up in late-session trade………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Emkay Commodity Research has come out with its report on energy and precious metals. The research firm expects crude oil prices to go down as investors would remain cautious ahead of the manufacturing, GDP and retail sales data to gauge the health of global economy.
Emkay Commodity Research has come out with its report on energy and precious metals. The research firm expects crude oil prices to go down as investors would remain cautious ahead of the manufacturing, GDP and retail sales data to gauge the health of global economy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How many of us would like to walk into a shopping mall holding several grams of gold in the pocket to buy a packet of soap or other daily necessities? This is quite possible if paper currency loses its significance or value. But why would that happen and what does it have to do with gold prices?
Think of a scenario. A scenario in which the world collapses and there are massive job losses. Economic activities tumble, companies shut their offices and factories, governments decline to honour debt and banks refuse to return our deposits………………………………………..Full Article: Source

I find myself reminiscing about April 2011 when the white metal ended the month at a sterling $48.70 an ounce after hitting an all-time intraday high of $49.51. That record surpassed the previous high of $49.45 set three decades earlier when the Texan Hunt brothers set out to corner the silver market.
Since the 2011 peak, the S&P has roared higher by some 50%, while the value of silver has tumbled 53%. That’s not nearly as bad as the drop silver experienced between its Hunt brothers induced high on Jan 1, 1980 through its low on June 21, 1982, when silver fell a devastating 90%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Dubai demand for gold has been witnessing a massive surge since the price collapse of last month, with demand far outstripping supply. Various estimates suggest that demand in the past few weeks has been nothing short of astronomical, surging by 10 times the normal demand.
According to the latest precious metals weekly report by Gerhard Schubert, Head of Precious Metals at local bank Emirates NBD, “Participants of the physical industry in Dubai believe that an additional 50 tonnes have been bought since the price crash in April. These sales figures are in addition to the ‘usual’ numbers and put a little perspective on the derivative side of the market.”………………………………….Full Article: Source

Survey participants are divided on the price outlook for gold next week, with no one group capturing the majority of opinions, although nominally more participants see weaker prices.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, eight see prices up, while 11 see prices down and six see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts…………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Opec will need to pump more oil than previously thought to balance the market in 2013 and expects global consumption to be much higher in the rest of the year, the group said in a report ahead of its meeting to set policy on May 31.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in a monthly report forecast 2013 demand for its crude will average 29.84 million barrels per day (bpd), up 90,000 bpd from the previous estimate. The 12-member group’s own production rose by 280,000 bpd in April to 30.46 million bpd, according to secondary sources cited by the report, led by higher output in Saudi Arabia and Iraq………………………………….Full Article: Source

A surge in US tight crude oil production has reached 2 mb/d; and it is expected to reach 2.8 mb/d by 2015 and 3.1 mb/d 2020, London based Barclays noted in a report.
The improvement in drilling efficiency gains across some key tight oil plays is meritorious and contributes directly to the current surge in tight oil production, there are growing risks of this momentum approaching inflection points in the future (depending on rig availability) at which steep decline rates start to offset these efficiency gains…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Dubai demand for gold has been witnessing a massive surge since the price collapse of last month, with demand far outstripping supply. Various estimates suggest that demand in the past few weeks has been nothing short of astronomical, surging by 10 times the normal demand.
According to the latest precious metals weekly report by Gerhard Schubert, Head of Precious Metals at local bank Emirates NBD, “Participants of the physical industry in Dubai believe that an additional 50 tonnes have been bought since the price crash in April. These sales figures are in addition to the ‘usual’ numbers and put a little perspective on the derivative side of the market.”………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold bullion fell to a two-week low Friday, drifting lower towards $1440 an ounce during this morning’s London session before dropping sharply through that level, as stocks gained and most commodities fell as the Dollar strengthened against major currencies.
Silver fell to $23.34 an ounce, while copper prices ticked higher. “The risk [for gold] is a break through support [will] test the $1322 low,” say technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, who cited $1440 an ounce as a key support level…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper prices may witness further upward movement as market positioning is still short with positive demand signals from China. The base metal prices may rise above $7,500 per ton before re-stabilising shorts, stated London based Barclays in its recent market report.
Last week, across the base metals complex, short-covering dominated price dynamics. In the context of extreme CTA short positioning, a stronger-than-expected US employment report alongside a surge in German factory orders for March combined to act as catalysts to fuel the move in prices…………………………………..Full Article: Source

US crude oil inventories are increasing across the board. Commercial crude stocks in the US are sitting at 395 million bbls, an all-time high level and only 37 million bbls away from what Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates to be tested maximum storage capacity.
True, stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma—the pricing point for WTI—fell to 49.8 million bbls in the last available report, briefly pushing prices above $96/bbl. But as other sites fill up, the Oklahoma hub may now hold nearly 45% or 16 million bbls of the country’s total tested spare capacity, a report from the Bank noted………………………………………..Full Article: Source

These past few weeks it seems like paper gold is out and physical gold is in. The fall in the price of gold has triggered a new run on physical gold that shows no sign of abating. Record amounts of money have exited ‘paper,’ i.e. futures and ETFs, and headed straight to the bank or the mint to be exchanged for coins and bullion bars — that is, if one can get them.
The strength of physical retail buying has taken dealers and mints around the world by surprise, leaving them scrambling to keep up with demand. The sudden surge is evidence of pent-up demand, particularly from China and India………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver in India, the poor man’s gold, is witnessing a reverse trend compared to the world market where a slump in silver prices has spurred demand.
In India, the demand for silver jewellery has dropped significantly and the investment demand for the metal has almost dried up despite the price falling to Rs 46,000 per kg. This may bring down the country’s import of silver by 12% to 2,200 tonne this year from 2,500 tonne last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Maybe it’s the gloomy Seattle weather that has made investment manager Jim Hansen and his son and partner, Kevin, at Ravenna Capital Management immune to oil and gas industry hype about the supposed U.S. shale gas “revolution.” More likely it is thorough research focused on making their clients money and keeping that money out of harm’s way.
The Hansens are patient contrarian investors whose time horizon is generally several years. They can’t help you if you want advice on next week’s or next month’s natural gas price. In fact, they’re not sure anyone can reliably help you with that. So they focus on much longer-term trends, and they think they’ve spotted one in the U.S. natural gas market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The price of oil edged higher Monday as tension increased between Syria and Israel. The benchmark oil contract for June delivery rose 55 cents to close at $96.16 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the third straight day of gains for oil, and the first close above $96 since April 2.
Prices rose early Monday on news of an Israeli military strike in Syria, raising concern of an expansion in conflict in the oil-rich Middle East. The price fell back below $95 before rising again late in the day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Barclays, in its latest report on gold has projected Q2 13 price of gold at $1350/oz and 2013 price at $1483/oz.
Gold prices fluctuated around the $1460/oz price level last week as gold ETPs reached a monthly record net outflow in April. While gold prices rose after the ECB rate cut, prices ended the week roughly flat, after Friday’s US employment report. Although ETP outflows continued to put pressure on prices, coin sales at various Mints remained strong in April………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices have moved around quite a bit of late, and the price of U.S. benchmark crude oil has even dipped below $90 a barrel. Lower oil prices are great for consumers, and they’re one reason we might actually be able to afford gas this summer.
However, not everyone likes to see the price of oil move lower, and it’s pretty obvious that oil producers prefer higher prices. Next time oil prices spike higher, think about the following positive effects of higher oil prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

An age-old question to which no one has a definitive answer, but which is continually asked, is back on the agenda. Is the price of oil headed inexorably downward? There are several reasons why this question is being asked.
The overriding one is hope. After almost five years of triple-digit prices, the benchmark Brent crude oil price fell below $100 last month for the first time since July last year. Admittedly, it did not stay there for long, rising to over $100 days later, but the fact that it had slid by almost 20 per cent over the previous two months gave rise to the hope that prices were on a secular downtrend………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Dairy leads 12.6 per cent jump last month - largest rise in index’s 27-year history.Led by dairy products, ANZ’s commodity price index hit an all-time high last month but Fonterra’s auction saw prices give back nearly half of April’s gains.
In world price terms, the ANZ index climbed 12.6 per cent - the largest monthly rise in its 27-year history. It was underpinned by a 26 per cent rise in dairy prices, which make up 44 per cent of the index and without which the rise would have been only 0.2 per cent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices are headed down, and I mean down at least $20 a barrel. The key reason is that prices have been high. It’s not a paradox, but a result of the long time lags in oil production.
Oil prices were fairly stable from 1986 through 2001, averaging just $20 per barrel. Then prices started rising, spiking to $134 just as the recession began. The price of oil has been above $80 for the past two and a half years. With rising prices has come a dramatic increase in exploration activity. During the era of low prices, the number of drilling rigs in operation around the world was 1,900 on average; now we are at nearly double that pace, and we have been for nearly three years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The U.S. is experiencing a boom in the production of oil. Only since the beginning of 2011, oil production in the U.S. has gone up by 30%, from 5.5 million barrels per day (mbd) to 7.2 mbd. Just this week, the U.S. Geological Survey announced that the amount of technically recoverable oil in North Dakota was tripled from a previous estimate – so this boom is unlikely to fall away in the short term.
At the same time, U.S. and European demand for petroleum products are declining. The economic troubles in the Euro zone have dampened economic activity (and petroleum demand), while in America, economic growth has returned, but the consumption of petroleum products are down as consumers change habits and lifestyles to drive less………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Delivered coal prices appear to be exceptionally resilient to the drop in consumption. In fact, while delivered coal volumes have been declining, delivered coal prices have been rising, Barclays noted in a report.
One might expect coal deliveries priced at $3.00 per MMBtu equivalent or more to drop the most as coal-to-gas displacement eats into the coal supply stack………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Coal prices are likely to fall this year, owing to low demand and increased supplies. Citi Research has lowered the price estimates of global thermal coal for this year and the next, citing increased supply and subdued demand in India and China, the key coal-importing nations.
Citi’s commodity research team cut its coal price forecasts for 2013 and 2014 by six per cent and 15 per cent to $89 a tonne and $94 a tonne, respectively. Earlier, the price was estimated at $95 a tonne for 2013 and $111 a tonne for 2014. Citi said the subdued demand in the European and Chinese markets, along with oversupply of 31-41 million tonnes (mt) in 2013-14, would reduce prices further………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The gold price is expected to continue falling to as low as $1 200/oz over the next year, after what seemed to be an unstoppable climb over the past 12 years, says investment company Rezco Asset Management investment director Rob Spanjaard.
He adds that Rezco attributes the drop in price mainly to a large number of exchange-traded funds being liquidated. “The primary problem is that there was speculative money in gold, which is currently being withdrawn. As soon as the gold price stops rising, speculative investors start changing their minds………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Make no mistake: The April sell-off in gold created some extensive “collateral damage” in the silver market.
The silver price dropped nearly 20% in just two days… and many Wall Street analysts were quick to downgrade their forecasts for the rest of 2013. But we believe Wall Street analysts have grossly misinterpreted recent events………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Fresh evidence of slowing global growth prompted further falls for industrial commodities, US stocks and the dollar, and gains for Treasury bonds, even as the Federal Reserve backed away from previous hints that the pace of its asset purchase programme might be curbed.
The central bank said it was prepared to raise or lower the level of its purchases as economic conditions evolved. It described the economy as expanding moderately but said fiscal policy was “restraining” growth………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices have lost the key $100 a barrel level for the second time in a month as poor economic data from China and the US added to jitters about demand.
ICE June Brent crude oil fell as much as 3.4 per cent to a session low of $98.87, highlighting lingering nerves in a market that fell 7 per cent last month. The sell-off in oil also bled into other commodity markets, with sharp drops seen in copper and gold too………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices are headed down, and I mean down at least $20 a barrel. The key reason is that prices have been high. It’s not a paradox, but a result of the long time lags in oil production.
Oil prices were fairly stable from 1986 through 2001, averaging just $20 per barrel. Then prices started rising, spiking to $134 just as the recession began. The price of oil has been above $80 for the past two and a half years. With rising prices has come a dramatic increase in exploration activity………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold’s sharp decline, which saw the metal fall to $1,321 on April 16, led to a global surge in physical demand. But some market participants question whether this appetite and the upward price moves are sustainable.
Surging demand drove the US Mint to suspend sales of 1/10-ounce gold coins, Reuters reported. By April 30, the Mint had reported sales of 312,500 gold coins. Equaling 209,500 ounces, April’s gold coins sales are more than a quarter of the 753,000 ounces sold in 2012, according to Bloomberg………………………………………..Full Article: Source

For the past five years or so, gold company costs have been rising at around 17% per year. And, while they have moderated somewhat of late and could go lower in the short term, the long term trend is definitely up.
This is according to Earth Resource Group, investment advisor, Georges Lequime, who told Mineweb’s Gold Weekly podcast that much of this increase has been driven by falling grades, with the average across the industry now below 1 gram per tonne………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global investment banks have adjusted near-term price forecasts for energy, metals and agricultural commodities after the mid-April market tumble.Brent crude oil fell below $100 a barrel the first time in nine months; gold suffered its biggest loss in dollar terms; and copper sunk to an 18-month low after the selloff, triggered by worries of stagnating China growth, fresh concerns about the euro zone and U.S. economic uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs, Wall Street’s most influential name in commodities, has lowered its forecast for Brent crude in the second quarter, while turning bullish on copper due to inventory drawdowns in China. It also withdrew its previous call to short gold, as bullion prices moved back above $1,400 an ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The recent fall in commodity prices should “ultimately be viewed as a positive”, according to Rowan Dartington Signature’s managing director, Andrew Morris.The prices for Brent crude oil, copper and gold have all fallen by more than 10 per cent this year, partly due to concerns about global growth, but Mr Morris said the price fall will end up boosting growth.
He said: “A general fall in commodities… will in time be good news for growth prospects. By reducing imported or commodity-related inflationary pressures, this will not only help boost consumer purchasing power but it will take some of the heat off central bankers tasked with reigning in inflation.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

The United States is in the midst of a miraculous supply boom that has seen domestic oil output soar by more than 1 million barrels per day in the past year to the highest levels in decades. U.S. oil output is now at 6.5 million bbl per day, in third place after Saudi Arabia and Russia (both at roughly 9.8 million bpd). And the growth shows no sign of slowing down.
Add to that the slow and steady recovery of the Iraqi oil industry, plus the likelihood that the shale-cracking techniques perfected in the U.S. will be exported to the likes of China and Russia, and it looks like the world’s oil demand will be easily met for years to come………………………………………..Full Article: Source

West Texas Intermediate crude advanced to near its highest closing level in more than two weeks. OPEC’s reference price rebounded above $100 a barrel.
WTI reversed losses of 0.6 percent as European stocks and the euro rose amid speculation central banks will maintain monetary stimulus. Brent crude traded near its highest closing price in two weeks as Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta prepared to finish installing a new government. Hedge funds curbed bullish bets on the North Sea benchmark to their lowest in four months, data from ICE Futures Europe showed………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Friday’s GDP number was a disappointment. The consensus among economists was that growth for the first quarter would be at least 3% (at an annual rate adjusted for inflation). The actual number was only 2.5%. And even that wasn’t as good as it looked. Growth late last year was very weak, so part of the first-quarter gain was simply a short-term bounce back from the previous quarter.
Nonetheless, those results appear to fit with conventional wisdom: A lethargic economy has managed to crank out minimal but steady growth for almost four years. And the outlook is slowly getting better rather than getting worse………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The dip in gold prices may not help narrow current account deficit, a report by HSBC said.”The recent drop in gold prices is likely to have no impact on the CA deficit as the drop in prices should be outweighed by a rise in volumes” said Leif Eskeseen, chief India economist, HSBC.
” Our quantitative analysis supports this”. The volume of gold imports rises with higher real incomes, lower real deposit rates, and falling gold prices. In fact, the volume demand for gold is price sensitive, the HSBC report notes. Indian households collectively holding no less than 20,000 tonnes of gold, according to the World Gold Council………………………………………..Full Article: Source

ABN Amro, the Dutch state-owned banking giant, recently revised its global macro and gold outlook, forecasting a $1,300 gold price by the end of this year.
Moreover, the bank forecasts $1,000 gold by December 2014, and $800 gold in 2015. Why? “The authorities — especially in Europe — have acted to reduce systemic risks and inflation is going down rather than up. . . Other assets will become increasingly more attractive as the growth outlook improves.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

ETP outflows may remain as a key downside risk for gold in the near term and prices are expected to touch $1350/oz in the second quarter of 2013 and $1483/oz this year, stated London based Barclays in its recent market analysis.
“In our view, the vulnerability of further ETP outflows subsides should prices recover to above the $1500/oz level or equity markets under perform given the stronger correlation between the two,” it added.Gold prices recovered last week, ending the week above the $1450/oz level, after hitting their lowest level since February 2011 the week prior………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity prices nudged up slightly in March just ahead of the steep sell-off in gold mid-April. Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index rose 1.6 per cent month over month. Traders are bracing for more uncertainty following a reality check in China’s economic growth, which rose less than expected at 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2013.
Oil and gas was the strongest sub-category as prices rose 6.8 per cent from February. Natural gas reached its highest level since July 2011 as the winter dragged on in North America………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Indeed, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among the countries most vulnerable to an oil price shock, the bank says.Brent crude prices have declined 12.5% this month alone, as traders worry about declining demand and rising output notably from the United States, the North Sea, Canada, Iraq and Libya.
Overall, Brent has lost 6.9% in 2013, ending the third week of April at USD 102.41 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange………………………………………..Full Article: Source