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Oil Speculators Least Bullish in 10 Weeks on Iran Talks

Posted on 30 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Hedge funds are the least bullish on crude in 10 weeks as talks resumed on a nuclear accord with Iran that could lift sanctions and swell supply. Money managers trimmed their net-long wagers on West Texas Intermediate by 1.3 percent in the week ended June 23, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
Shorts rose 8.9 percent while long positions increased 0.7 percent. Speculators curbed bullish bets on Brent crude, the European benchmark, to the lowest in three months. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met June 27 in Vienna. Iran says it could double oil exports from 1 million barrels a day within six months if sanctions are lifted………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Dollar gold price could go below $1,000/oz for short period: Natixis

Posted on 30 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The dollar gold price still has room to move lower, below $1,000/oz for a short period of time, Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah told Platts Monday. In an email Dahdah said that, “even under the stress of the situation in Greece, the price of gold hasn’t benefited much. The market is fixated on the potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. As we get closer to this hike so we expect gold prices to drop gradually.”
Gold benefits from a low interest rate environment as a non-yielding asset class. The turmoil in Greece, where a potential default on national debt and in turn possible exit from the eurozone has had a near-zero knock-on effect to the gold price in dollar terms………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price standoff despite confluence of positives

Posted on 30 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Price has been remarkably steady over the past week despite a number of factors, which might have been expected to cause it to rise. The gold price has been trading in an extremely narrow range for the past few days, despite a number of seemingly positive pieces of news. It certainly seems that those who do not wish the price to rise back even to the $1,200 level or above have the markets firmly under control.
But it also appears that those who do not wish to see further falls are maybe helping prices stabilise too. In other words there is something of a standoff. So what are the positive pieces of news? First and foremost perhaps is the continuing lack of a real solution to the Greek debt crisis. Contrary to numerous reports that a settlement was about to be reached between Greece and its creditors it appears that no such thing has occurred………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India: Disappointing rains may increase prices of key commodities by 6-20% in July

Posted on 29 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The monsoon’s flying start has depressed the prices of key commodities to such an extent that analysts and market watchers believe that if the rains, as the government’s weather bureau forecasts, turn out to be a damp squib in July these products could bounce back by as much as 6-20 per cent.
IMD has forecast rainfall in June-September period to be 12 per cent below normal because of the El Nino phenomenon, while private forecaster Skymet is sticking to its prediction of a normal monsoon, or 102 per cent of long period average. However, rainfall in June through Thursday has been 28 per cent above normal, pushing down the prices of many foods………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold will fall to $800 by end-2016

Posted on 29 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The sad truth is that gold is trapped in a vicious bear market. Gold prices have fallen from $1,930 in September 2011 to barely $1,175 now, a time during which the US stock market has almost doubled. Gold was unable to even hold $1,200 an ounce when rumors of a Troika-Greece debt bust mesmerised the European stock markets. It is tough to be a goldbug, even in the cloistered banking counting rooms of Credit Suisse and UBS. True believers (and their poor clients!) in Dubai have been gutted by gold linked “structured notes”.
There are myriad factors that could cause gold prices to fall to $800 an ounce in the next two years. US economic momentum and the robust payrolls data makes a hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate cycle inevitable. This means the dollar will continue its rampage against the euro, yen, emerging markets currencies and crude oil. A surge in the US Dollar Index, up almost 20 per cent since last June, is the kiss of death for gold. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold Miners’ Strike No Cure for Price Woes

Posted on 29 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Languishing gold prices could get some help as miners in South Africa enter wage negotiations with the industry’s labor unions. But it’s unclear how much difference even a significant strike will mean to prices.
South Africa, at one time the world’s top gold producer, is no longer the heavyweight it once was, but it remains a major player. Unions representing more than 80% of the country’s gold workers are demanding as much as double their current wages in negotiations that began June 22. Industry watchers predict the two unions will settle for much less but not before striking and reducing the country’s gold output. The potential for such an event could edge gold prices higher in weeks ahead………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Discount on gold prices widens in India

Posted on 29 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices in India are now ruling at a discount to international prices. Thanks to weak demand, bullion dealers are quoting discounted prices for their inventory. Prices in the spot market quoted at a discount of $8/ounce to the London price last week. This is lower than a $0.5/ounce discount in the beginning of June.
Gold BeES, Goldman Sachs’ gold exchange-traded fund, closed at Rs2,422 on Friday on the bourses, a discount of 2 per cent to its NAV of Rs2,467.68. Spot gold prices declined 2 per cent to close at Rs2,634.9/gram. Bullion dealers, however, expect demand to catch up in the coming weeks as they expect good monsoon rains will cheer rural consumers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran Deal’s Sanction Plan Could Affect Oil Prices

Posted on 26 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

An Iranian nuclear deal could bring an influx of oil, but when and how sanctions are lifted could also affect prices. The deadline for a nuclear deal is June 30, which could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Iran. Oil is believed to make up 80% of Iran’s exports, and current sanctions have chopped those exports in half.
Iran could potentially add another 800,000 barrels of oil a day to the market within six to nine months, according to Robin Mills, an energy strategist for Manaar Energy. Even though the potential for pumping oil in Iran is strong, deal makers are pushing for sanctions to be lifted gradually instead of immediately………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices around $60 as demand balances glut

Posted on 26 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil prices steadied on Thursday as strong demand for oil products helped to balance a global overhang of crude oil for immediate delivery. North Sea Brent crude oil traded within a fairly narrow range as investors eyed a weak physical crude market in the Atlantic basin amid reports of stronger demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States and Europe.
Official prices for Nigerian crude have hit their lowest in at least a decade with as much as 10 million barrels of unsold light, sweet crude oil capping Atlantic basin prices. But demand for oil products is fairly strong. U.S. gasoline demand in the week to June 19 hit the highest seasonal level since 1991, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Here’s why gold will rally: RBC’s Gero

Posted on 26 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is in the midst of its longest losing streak since March, but one noted gold bug claims the selling could soon abate. “I’m probably one of the few people that believe there are too many bears in the woods,” metals strategist George Gero said.”
Gold closed Thursday’s session at $1,172.20 an ounce, its lowest level since June 5, but despite the selloff, Gero insists the precious metal is oversold. Gero attributed gold’s recent demise to a healthy stock market, strong dollar, uncertainty over a Fed rate hike and unrest in Greece………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Calculus on oil price changing as Iran talks wobble

Posted on 25 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iran has been a wild card in the oil market, and it looks like it could stay that way for awhile. The deadline for a nuclear agreement with the U.S. and five other countries is Tuesday. But the timing appears to be slipping, as the walkup to that date has been met with negative rhetoric from Iranian hardliners.
“From a geopolitical standpoint, it could add a lot of uncertainty. From a short-term standpoint, I think the oil implications are that anyone who is thinking Iranian oil is getting to the market soon will have to reconsider,” said Greg Valliere, chief political strategist at Potomac Research………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Prices Fall After Inventory Data

Posted on 25 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices declined Wednesday after data showed that crude-oil supplies shrank last week but inventories of refined products rose. Light, sweet crude for August delivery settled down 74 cents, or 1.2%, to $60.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, fell 96 cents, or 1.5%, to $63.49 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
U.S. oil prices have gained 13% this year on expectations that the global glut of crude oil is due to shrink. U.S. commercial crude-oil supplies fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ended June 19, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran may usher a quick return to $50 U.S. oil prices

Posted on 24 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The oil market’s mostly focused on U.S. supply data this week, but next week should be all about Iran and the deadline for a final agreement over its nuclear program. If a deal between Iran and six world powers is reached by the June 30 deadline, Iran could soon start dumping millions of barrels of oil into the global market, ushering a quick return of $50 oil prices.
“Iran has at least 34 large tankers full of oil — about 50 million barrels or more — ready to “sell and sail” if sanctions are lifted, said Byron King, editor of investment newsletter Outstanding Investments………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil At $60: How Marginal Producers Cope Will Shape Market Direction

Posted on 24 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As we approach the midway point of the current trading year, it has become apparent that oil benchmarks would find it hard to escape the $50-$75 per barrel range for the rest of the year, and much of 2016. Macroeconomics of the day also does not point to a dip below $50 barring the occurrence of an unforeseen financial tsunami.
As most producers are looking at non-OECD markets to export to, and demand there is holding up, if not firing on all cylinders, a steep price drop is highly unlikely. Atop the much asserted claim of too much oil coming on the market – in the region of 1.1 to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by some accounts – each time there is minor uptick in price, a swift downward correction follows suit. Trading in recent weeks offers ample proof of this………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Miners can make money at $1,200/oz gold

Posted on 24 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has traded this year in a range close to $1,200/oz. Do you expect gold to maintain this range for the rest of the year? Yes. Our 2015 outlook is $1,250/oz, and thereafter we project a flat outlook to manifest a more agnostic view on the commodity. We employ this approach as it facilitates greater correlation between cash flow expectations and our view of operational performance.
What are the factors keeping gold at $1,200/oz? We see gold demand support predominantly arising from Asia, particularly in India and China, but also note recent rhetoric from Russia outlining the potential of increasing the country’s metal inventory………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bullish case for palladium price fading

Posted on 24 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The bullish case for palladium appears to be fading, with the metal dropping back below $700 and speculators pulling out en masse. When gold and silver were struggling in 2014, investors increasingly turned to palladium – its fundamentals looked strong given growing Chinese demand for cars and a supply deficit that was set to widen after a five-month strike in South Africa.
The metal climbed from $696 in February to a peak of $911.50 in September and net longs on Nymex struck their highest since records began in 1986 at 30,090 contracts. Supporting the price was a 1.4-percent fall in supply of newly refined palladium to 9 million ounces in 2014 from 2013, CPM Group noted this week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil investors betting on crude hitting $82 per barrel

Posted on 23 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

European hedge fund believes market for crude is oversold as demand picks up. Investors are beginning to bet on a sharp rebound in the oil price by the end of the year, on the back of rising demand and a slowdown in US production.
Insch Capital Management, a Swiss hedge fund, is predicting that prices will be trading at about $82 per barrel by the beginning of next year, and already claims the market is oversold. The Lugano-based fund says it plans to ramp up investments in the sector in preparation for an expected 50pc uptick in the price of crude by 2016………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Do not see oil prices going beyond $80-85: CEA Arvind Subramanian

Posted on 23 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian today said he does not see oil prices going beyond 80 to 85 dollars, a price which will help India manage its macro economy reasonably.
“… yes oil prices could go up, but given the fundamental changes (in the market), the likelihood of it (oil price) going up to anywhere beyond 80 or 85 dollars I (think) relatively (should be) ignored and as long as oil prices stay, don’t go beyond that I think we can manage our macro economy reasonably,” he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Price War Continues As OPEC Tightens The Screws

Posted on 23 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As we come towards the end of another trading month, crude oil price remains firmly range-bound as OPEC’s policy of taking on the alternative energy suppliers in a price war continues.
Judging by its recent statements, OPEC is clearly intent on taking the long view to squeeze these companies out of business, and as the rhetoric and oversupply builds, oil prices are likely to continue to remain waterlogged, with intraday movements more likely to be driven either by the US dollar or local fundamentals in the short term. Even the recent transition on the weekly oil inventories from a build to a draw has failed to provide any meaningful momentum for the commodity………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Seasonal Strength Could Push Gold To $1,300 Level

Posted on 23 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Our gold forecast for the rest of 2015 shows three big factors affecting the direction of the yellow metal. First, let’s look at where gold prices are now. After hitting a four-week high Thursday, the gold price paused in early trading Friday. At last check, the yellow metal was up $0.80 at $1,202.80 an ounce.
After trading as high as $1,207.00 an ounce, gold ended Thursday’s U.S. session up $24.50, or 2.08%, at $1,201.40. Thursday’s gain in the gold price put the precious metal back in positive territory for the year. The yellow metal is up 1.5% year to date. So, what’s the longer-term gold forecast? There are a few factors affecting the rest of the year’s gold price forecast………………………………………..Full Article: Source

‘Umpteenth’ Greek Summit Sees Gold Prices Fall

Posted on 23 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold Prices erased two-thirds of last week’s 1.5% jump against a rising US Dollar on Monday, dropping back from $1200 per ounce as Eurozone stock markets held strong gains amid hopes of a quick deal at the latest emergency summit on Greece’s debt crisis.
Five years after the first such summit, “We are approaching an absolutely decisive moment,” French radio was told by the European Union’s economic affairs commissioner Pierre Moscovici today. Greece’s proposals “go in the right direction [and make] a good basis for an agreement,” he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

New Silver Price Forecast for the Rest of 2015

Posted on 23 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The silver price forecast for the rest of 2015 is getting a big bullish sign right now…Just look at what silver prices are doing today. silver price forecastThe white metal was up $0.12, or 0.72%, at $16.30 just before noon today. One thing keeps pushing silver higher: Greece.
The broke country met with Eurozone officials Monday in attempts to finalize a debt-restructuring deal. In a proposal sent early on Monday, Greece moved to yield to lenders’ demands for tax increases and pension reforms. Greece offered to raise the country’s retirement age gradually to 67 and limit early retirements. It also offered to reform the value-added tax system to set the main rate at 23%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Zinc Price Forecast: Still the Strongest of a Weak Metals Field

Posted on 23 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Zinc remains the best-performing metal of all of the industrial metals. And though zinc fundamentals tell a mixed story – industrial-buying organizations should watch the dollar and commodities markets closely for a more likely price scenario for zinc.
The arguments supporting growing demand include detailed information recently collected by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, suggesting 2015 demand for refined zinc will exceed supply by 151,000 metric tons. But this new deficit forecast has been revised down because of weaker-than-expected Chinese imports of refined zinc………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How El Niño affects commodity prices (Video)

Posted on 22 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Cocoa, coffee and minerals are especially vulnerable to the weather pattern first named by Peruvian fishermen. The Economist explains how El Niño affects.…………………………………………Full Article: Source

Where The Price Of Oil Is Heading Next

Posted on 22 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Last month, OPEC held its 167th meeting in Vienna, Austria. The two main takeaways? One: The oil cartel will maintain production at 30 million barrels per day (bpd), with unofficial numbers above that.
Two: Saudi Arabia’s price war against U.S. shale producers will continue. By resolving to preserve its already high production ceiling, OPEC is keeping prices low and putting the squeeze on all non-OPEC output… Especially companies working in shale, where costs are significantly higher………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Shale Watch: Lower Breakeven Prices Mean U.S. Can Keep Oil Flowing

Posted on 22 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

U.S. shale has nothing to fear from the current low oil price environment, which has seen crude prices fall 40 percent since June last year. Research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance shows that a reduction in the cost of drilling and completing wells has brought breakeven prices for the big tight oil plays several dollars below the current WTI price of around $60 a barrel.
The “Big Three” U.S. light tight oil plays — the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian — all break even several dollars below WTI, at $47, $53 and $52 a barrel, respectively, according to BNEF research. The collapse in oil prices has led to a corresponding downturn in the costs of drilling and completion services. This means that the same well that may have cost $8 million when oil was trading cost $6 million. This, in turn, means that breakeven prices have come down by as much as $20 a barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices not likely to change in near future

Posted on 22 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

According to analysts, the markets of precious metals are showing signs of growth due to soft rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve Fund that contributes to the decline of the US dollar rate. Pravda.Ru asked expert opinion from senior analyst at Investkafe, Andrei Shenk, about the state of affairs on the gold market.
“The current price of gold is pretty fair. There is a movement in the dollar rate that affects the price of gold as gold is priced in dollars. As for traditional factors that affect the price of gold, one should mention expectations of inflation, although they do not bring any surprises here. No one sees gold as a defensive asset at the moment. In other words, there are no factors that could move the gold price either up or down. For the time being, there is a balance of demand and supply on the gold market,” said Andrei Shenk………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How Big Oil Was Saved From the Oil Price Crash

Posted on 19 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Low oil prices have been less of a drag on the big integrated oil companies than it has for smaller producers. Diversified portfolios have allowed the largest oil companies to weather the storm better than their smaller competitors.
To be sure, Big Oil has not gotten off lightly. In fact, some of the largest megaprojects that are only undertaken by the oil majors appear to be huge financial burdens. Having spent billions of dollars on extraordinarily large and complex projects — ultra-deepwater, LNG, large oil sands projects — the costs are a colossal weight around the necks of the oil majors. The oil industry has scrapped an estimated $200 billion in future offshore and LNG projects as the industry backs away from the massive costs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why $1,200 is important for gold

Posted on 19 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold’s close above $1,200 an ounce may mean a lot more than you think. Future prices for the metal rallied Thursday, with the August contract surging $25.20, or 2.1%, to settle at $1,202 an ounce on Comex, the highest close for a most-active contract since May 22.
To be sure, the rally was impressive. It was the largest single-session point and percentage gain in about five weeks. But the fact that prices have rallied above $1,200 is a milestone in its own right. The rally above that level comes at a time when gold prices tend to mark a low for the year, according to Frank Holmes, chief executive and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors. They sometimes then climb by up to 20%, Holmes told MarketWatch………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price chasing $1,200/oz, Fed’s stance deemed dovish

Posted on 19 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The gold price spiked towards $1,200 on Thursday morning after the US Federal Reserve sought to calm speculation about when it will start to raise interest rates. Spot gold was last poised just below the key psychological $1,200 level at $1,196.00/1,196.80 per ounce, up $12.20 or around one percent on Wednesday’s close and just below intraday peaks.
The metal, which has not been above $1,200 since June 1, is gaining on a weaker dollar in light of Fed chair Janet Yellen’s somewhat dovish FOMC statement on Wednesday. While the statement provided little surprise, Yellen said in her press conference that people are putting too much emphasis on when the first increase happens and that there is no fixed schedule for tightening policy. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Forget $100: Will the oil market remember $80?

Posted on 18 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

May felt like a déjà vu month in the oil markets with crude attempting another rally, much like the one we saw in February, albeit at slightly higher levels, and once again failing to lift off. A strengthening US dollar and renewed focus on bearish supply-side fundamentals took the bounce out of Brent, which at one point in early May was perched at the year’s high within sight of $68/barrel.
The 5 June decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) to leave its production ceiling untouched—predictable as it was—dragged the benchmark light sweet crude back to $62/barrel levels as the second week of June got underway………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil and gas chief says sector needs to adjust to $60 a barrel future

Posted on 18 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The new boss of the UK’s oil and gas body has warned that the sector faces a future in which long term oil prices are about $60 a barrel. Deirdre Michie told a gathering in Aberdeen that the industry needed to adjust and find a fresh way forward.
Oil prices have fallen from about $115 a barrel to $63 since last June. The annual oil and gas industry conference also heard from First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who wants no new tax rises for the sector………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold is surely headed to $25,000, but maybe not until next century

Posted on 18 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold most definitely is headed to $25,000 an ounce. The question is when? How about 103 years — not until 2118, in other words? Peculiar as that sounds, it actually rests on a strong historical foundation: You just need to assume that gold over the (very) long term will maintain its purchasing power against inflation (which it has over past centuries), and that inflation in the future will be 3% a year (its U.S. average over the past century).
Do you think inflation will be higher than 3% per year? Be my guest — see what you come up with. The table below shows, for each of several possible inflation rates, how many years it would take for gold to reach $25,000………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Prices Rise After Fed Statement

Posted on 18 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices rose in electronic trading on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve gave a less optimistic than expected assessment of the U.S. economy and signaled that it may raise rates less steeply than anticipated in the coming cycle.
Gold for August delivery, the most actively traded contract, was up 0.6% to $1,187.60 a troy ounce in aftermarket trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices closed down 0.4% at $1,176.80 a troy ounce in regular trading………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver price to remain muted in 2015

Posted on 18 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver prices will most likely remain bound to the upper $15s per troy ounce in the coming months, but will climb to the upper $16s in the autumn, Philip Newman of UK research company Metals Focus said as reported by Platts.
Silver futures for July delivery had dipped 0.03 percent to $15.960 per troy ounce as of 09:27 BST today. The contract has declined almost 10 percent on a monthly basis. “In Q4, we expect silver to rise,” Newman said at the International Precious Metals Institute meeting in San Antonio on Sunday. “One of the reasons is that seasonally, this is a strong time for gold in India and China, and that should help silver as well.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Is Copper Price Overshooting on Downside? SMM Interviews

Posted on 18 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Copper price has posted sharp falls, and the SHFE copper lost 4.64% following a five-day losing streak. Is the red metal overshooting on the downside? Will its outlook turn less pessimistic for the long run? “Some negative factors may have been priced in and it is possible that price fall in H2 can be not as sharp as we had expected, but outlook is still bearish overall,” said analyst from Everbright Futures told SMM.
Chief analyst of COFCO Futures agreed, saying that although downward room may be limited on the horizon following the plunge, weak market fundamentals mean prospect for the market in H2 should remain pessimistic………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why oil price will this year surge to $80 a barrel from $64

Posted on 17 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The oil market is working: High-cost production is being retired and new projects are delayed or cancelled while demand is again surging. That means though the movements will be volatile, that crude oil is as likely to be over $80 a barrel in the coming year, up from today’s price of around $64 a barrel, even as the consensus in the markets remains much more gloomy.
So far this year, there have been 24 barrels sold for every one burned. That means the price is driven by speculative demand rather than real supply and demand. There are many supply accidents waiting to happen from Venezuela to Africa. Sanctions on Russia are biting and projects are delayed………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to an Oil Market Rebalance

Posted on 16 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As oil prices collapsed last fall and winter, conventional wisdom in the market held that the global glut of crude would stop growing in the second half of 2015 and then shrink as demand picked up, bringing the market back into balance.
Mid-year is now just two weeks away, but the expected re-balance is nowhere in sight. Two data points tell the story: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is continuing to produce well above its quota, and U.S. output is still rising even as the industry slashes infrastructure tied to production………………………………………..Full Article: Source

U.S. oil ends lower as glut woes keep prices under $60 a barrel

Posted on 16 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude-oil futures finished lower, with ongoing concerns over a global glut of supplies keeping prices for the U.S. benchmark under $60 a barrel. Meanwhile, natural-gas prices climbed nearly 5% Monday as warmer weather throughout much of the U.S. lifted prospects for cooling demand, and the potential for a storm in the Gulf of Mexico fed concerns over energy production and consumption in the region.
July natural gas jumped 13.9 cents, or 5.1%, to settle at $2.889 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Analysts attributed the spike in prices to warmer weather in much of the U.S., which raises cooling demand for natural gas and may limit increases for supplies in storage in the weeks to come………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver prices to be lower on year in 2015, rebound in 2016: Metals Focus

Posted on 16 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver prices will likely average in the high $15/oz level during the summer but rise to the upper $16 level later in the fall, analyst Philip Newman of UK research company Metals Focus said. “In Q4, we expect silver to rise, Newman told an audience at the International Precious Metals Institute meeting in San Antonio. “One of the reasons is that seasonally, this is a strong time for gold in India and China, and that should help silver as well. “
Average silver prices in 2015 are likely to be about 15% lower than last year, but rise about 10% in 2016 as the uncertainty over interest rates fades with the expected gradual increase in US rates, he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price set to rise to US$1,300 by year-end

Posted on 16 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The price of gold is expected to rise to US$1,300 per ounce by year-end from the current US$1,170, says manager of GFMS Precious Metals Demand Asia, Cameron Alexander. He said the price had been range-bound for sometime now and would see a downside in the short time, ranging between US$1,125-US$1,130 per ounce.
“But towards the second half of the year, there is a possibility of the price moving higher,” he said. Alexander said the price upside for the yellow metal would be driven by debate over Greece’s debt position and political turmoil in Eastern Europe………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity prices rebounded?

Posted on 15 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bloomberg commodity Index is slightly gaining its value in last three month. However, its returned still decline by 24.89% on year on year basis. Bloomberg Commodity Index is calculated on the basis of an excess return and reflects twenty commodity exchange traded futures price movements, including energies, Industrial metals, precious metals, grains, soft commodities and livestock.
Demand for global commodity markets slumped in last one year due to booming in global equity markets. Investors reduced their interest in commodity to markets. Index slid mainly due to tumbled in crude prices as lower demand in the market against higher supplies. Dollar-denominated commodities such as gold, crude and copper prices tend to decline when dollar gains, as this makes it costlier for buyers for other currencies………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Supply cutbacks to push oil prices: QNB

Posted on 15 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The average oil prices are expected to rise to 64.1 per barrel in 2016, from an expected 56.2 per barrel in 2015, according to a research note issued by the QNB. Oil prices have rebounded by 33.1 percent since their trough in January to 62.0 per barrel. A research conducted by QNB to find out what is behind this recovery showed that demand was ingle-handedly behind the recent recovery, but that supply was responsible for the majority of the 60 percent collapse in oil prices in the second half of 2014.
“Our conclusions about the relative roles of demand and supply are supported by independent data from the International Energy agency (IEA). This suggests that the recovery in oil prices still has legs as the adjustment through lower supply is yet to happen………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices to grow at realistic pace

Posted on 15 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Once all the technical reasons have been set off, gold prices would reach the minimum level and from there it will start looking up once again at a more realistic pace than the present speculation driven levels, said Babu John, chairman and managing director of Sky Jewellery in an interview to Times of Oman. He was in Oman to celebrate the store’s tenth anniversary.
You have achieved a major milestone in Oman, how has the journey been? When I started in the year 2005, my first Oman operations in Muscat, it was a standalone showroom little away from the conventional gold souq. It had its own teething problems but clean strategies, extraordinary commitments of my staff helped us overcome all constraints………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Russia says oil price of $60-70 per barrel comfortable for market

Posted on 12 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices of $60-70 per barrel are comfortable for the market, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told the Russian parliament on Wednesday. “A joint consolidated view of all market participants, exporting countries, is that oil prices of $100 and higher we saw earlier will not be seen in the nearest future,” Novak said.
He added that domestic energy companies had cut investments by around 5 to 10 percent this year due to weak oil prices comparing with some 30 percent among global competitors. Russia is the largest oil producer outside OPEC. Last week, OPEC decided to maintain its production target despite weak oil prices. OPEC had earlier signaled it would be ready for a cut only if non-OPEC producers such as Russia join the move………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold: The US sets the price but Asia does the buying

Posted on 12 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It seems illogical that gold price movement seems to be dominated by US internal factors while most gold trade is elsewhere. What’s driving the gold price? At the moment it seems to be a succession of knee-jerk reactions to U.S financial data which push the gold price up or down, depending on the perception as to whether the data will likely bring the US Fed’s proposed interest rate rise programme forward or move it backwards.
It really isn’t a logical situation – but where’s the logic in the precious metals markets anyway? To many, gold is a relatively underutilised metal which works well as jewellery, but nowadays has little else going for it apart from a long history of monetary usage which nowadays may have had its time. Bankers and economists discount its usefulness as such………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IMF’s “never again” experience in Greece may get worse

Posted on 11 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For the International Monetary Fund, five years of playing junior partner in European bailouts for Greece has been a “never again” experience, and the worst may be yet to come. The global lender has lent far more to Athens than to any other borrower, contributing nearly one-third of the total 240 billion euros, with the rest coming from euro zone governments and the bloc’s rescue fund.
But it has sat uncomfortably in the side-car of the Greek rescue. Called in by EU paymaster Germany to try to keep the European institutions and the Greeks honest, the Washington-based IMF has never had control of the programme………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Prices To Remain Capped In The Short Term, Despite Fewer Shale Oil Barrels

Posted on 11 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The most recent Drilling Productivity Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration reveals that the phased impact of lower oil prices on U.S. tight oil production growth, is finally starting to show up and is expected to increase in magnitude over the next couple of months.
The agency estimates crude oil production from the seven key regions in the Lower 48 states to have declined by around 44,000 barrels per day, or 0.8% month-on-month in May, and expects the decline rate to increase to around 91,000 barrels per day, or 1.7% month-on-month by July of this year. According to the EIA, these seven regions accounted for almost 95% of the total domestic crude oil production growth between 2011 and 2013………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Prices Rise on Inventory Data

Posted on 11 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

U.S. oil prices rose to a new 2015 high Wednesday after U.S. data showed stronger-than-expected demand for crude oil and gasoline. Prices have wavered in recent weeks, pivoting around $60 a barrel as investors weighed a continued oversupply of oil against signs of stronger demand and expectations that output may be shrinking.
U.S. crude-oil stockpiles dropped by 6.8 million barrels in the week ended June 5 to 470.6 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted a 1.8-million-barrel decrease on the week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC: No further rise in crude expected in 2015

Posted on 11 June 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Wednesday it sees no further rise in demand for its crude this year, but it expects the current oversupply in the market to ease over the coming quarters.
In its closely watched monthly oil market report, OPEC kept its forecast for oil demand growth in 2015 unchanged at 1.18 million barrels a day, and said expectations of demand for its own oil this year remains at 29.3 million barrels a day, or 300,000 higher than 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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