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ABN Amro keeps 2015 oil price forecasts, cuts 2016 view

Posted on 31 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

ABN Amro kept its 2015 oil price forecasts, but reduced its 2016 prices significantly, citing a worsening oil oversupply situation. The bank maintained its 2015 Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecasts of $60 and $55 per barrel, respectively. But it cut 2016 Brent and WTI price forecasts by $10 to $65 and $60 per barrel, respectively.
ABN Amro said it expects a recovery with the market returning to balance with lower oversupply, mainly due to marginally higher demand and a weaker dollar during the course of 2016. “However, the oversupply will remain larger than previously expected as the OPEC produces above its quota, and also the US crude production will remain elevated,” Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at the bank said in a note Tuesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices sinking - even without Iran

Posted on 31 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices worldwide have been falling for the past year. And the return of oil from Iran - following its landmark nuclear deal - is expected to put further pressure on the prices. DW examines the global oil market.
“A year ago, the price of a barrel of Brent North Sea crude stood at around $110. It is currently hovering at about half that price - around $55,” recalled Alexander von Gersdorff of the Berlin-based Association of the German Petroleum Industry (MWV). The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has even dipped to below $50 a barrel recently. This slump in prices came even before Iran scaling up its oil exports………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Prepare for gold prices to plunge…as low as $350

Posted on 31 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A prominent gold forecaster predicts the yellow metal will drop to a mere $350 an ounce, a level unseen since 2003. It’s dramatically lower than what most experts are currently calling for. But Claude Erb’s prediction might have merit. Back in 2012, Erb, a former commodities trader at TCW Group, co-authored a landmark research paper with Duke University professor Campbell Harvey that was early to predict gold’s downfall.
At the time, gold was fetching north of $1,600 an ounce. Now it’s trading below $1,100. The paper used historical analysis to show that if gold is an inflation hedge — as many people believe — then it’s extremely expensive at current levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold has potential to plummet to $700: Strategist

Posted on 31 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold got little respite from all the bad news surrounding it Thursday, with the price of the precious metal crunching to near a five-and-a-half-year low and two separate analysts telling CNBC that there was little reason to add it to an investment portfolio.
Shaun Port, the chief investment officer at the online investment management company Nutmeg, highlighted that central banks were no longer thirsty for bullion and predicted a hefty fall in price. “I think there’s much further downside for gold from here, potentially through the $1,000 (level) and back to the pre-crisis levels of the sort of $700 or $800 (level),” he told CNBC Thursday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Study predicts gold could plunge to $350 an ounce

Posted on 31 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold bugs, who have just begun to digest bullion’s more than $100 drop over the past month, need to prepare for the possibility of an even bigger decline. That, at least, is the forecast of Claude Erb, a former commodities manager at fund manager TCW Group, and co-author (with Campbell Harvey, a Duke University finance professor) of a mid-2012 study that forecast a plunging gold price.
They deserve to be listened to, therefore, since — unlike many latter-day converts to the bearish thesis — they forecast a long-term gold bear market when it was only just beginning. You might think that, with gold now trading more than $500 lower than when the study was released, Erb would declare victory and leave well enough alone. But Erb is doing nothing of the sort. Earlier this week, he told me that the gold community now needs to consider the distinct possibility that gold will trade for as low as $350 an ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold could sink to $800: Yamada

Posted on 31 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold just can’t get a bid. The precious metal fell near 5½-year lows on Thursday after the second-quarter GDP number showed the U.S. economy is growing at a steady rate and comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday pointed to the notion of a September rate hike.
Gold is now down 13 out of the past 15 trading sessions, and according to one highly regarded technician, it’s about to get even worse. “I think we have to recognize that gold is in a structural bear market,” Louise Yamada, managing director of Louise Yamada Technical Advisors, said Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

The Real Reason Gold Prices Are Falling

Posted on 31 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is in the news for all the wrong reasons at the moment. The price of the metal tumbled this month, maintaining its downward trend for the year. In fact, bullion had its worst month in over two years in July. At US$1,092, an ounce of gold is now worth what it was back in 2010.
Its future prospects, if analysts are to be believed, are worse still. A recent Bloomberg survey suggested that prices could drop to US$984 an ounce by January. That would represent a 10% decline from its present price point. A separate Bloomberg survey highlighted that over half of respondents believe gold is heading for its third consecutive annual loss in 2015………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Forget whether $100 silver is possible, how about $1000?

Posted on 31 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

I don’t know of many charts out there that a bullish investor since 2011 would look at with more disgust than the silver chart. It has been an exceptionally painful experience for those bullishly inclined since 2011. In fact, silver has dropped 70% from its 2011 heights to its recent lows, and it is still not done. But this story certainly has a “silver lining” for those who are willing to be a bit more patient.
On Aug. 30, 2011, I wrote my first public column about silver, which called for a market top in silver with a shorting target of 42.90, and that it must remain below 44.30 for the downside to ensue. Within the same column, I provided a downside target of 26.80 in the futures………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Price Fluctuations at $50-$65 per Barrel ‘Normal’

Posted on 30 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil price fluctuations between $50 and $65 per barrel are normal because the situation on the world market depends on the level of supply and demand, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday.
“I think that the diapason of fluctuations, of which we spoke about before, from $50 to $65 [per barrel] is a normal and expected process and there are no supra-fluctuations that we see. The global situation on the markets depends on supply and demand and in today’s case, this is how it’s unfolding,” Novak said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Demand not enough to boost oil price

Posted on 30 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Strong global demand for oil is insufficient to offset a robust supply outlook that has driven prices back below US$50 per barrel, and Saudi Arabia no longer appears to have the necessary market clout to change prices.
“This remains a supply-driven market,” said Michael Tran, a New York-based commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “Supply drove us into this low price environment and supply will have to be what ultimately digs us out.” Tran thinks oil could retest the lows from earlier in 2015, but he thinks WTI prices will ultimately average somewhere in the low US$50s for the remainder of the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Here’s what the rout in gold prices means for the market

Posted on 30 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Lots have been said about the recent decline in gold prices. Most of it deals with the fundamentals of gold itself, such as mine closures, supply and demand, and the like. The rest involves the technical side, such as long-term trends and moving averages. But there are other sides to this story.
For example, gold is usually sought when inflation starts to heat up. When the economy first emerged from the Great Recession, gold rose in price, figuring that inflation would eventually rise — not just from the greater demand for metals and other commodities that usually accompanies a stronger economy, but from all the liquidity that the Federal Reserve had to create in order to push the economy forward………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Deutsche: Gold price has another 30% to fall – and soon

Posted on 30 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

On Tuesday gold stabilized but hovered near five-and-half year lows struck last week after a closely watched report showed global gold demand at the lowest in six years , followed by a prediction of a 30% fall from today’s levels.
Futures contracts in New York with August delivery dates were exchanging hands for $1,095.10 an ounce in after hours trade on Tuesday and flat compared to yesterday’s close in another day of light trading as anxious investors look for fresh direction for the metal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

HSBC downgrades 2015 gold price forecast

Posted on 30 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

HSBC has significantly downgraded its 2015 average gold price forecast, following the brutal sell-off seen in the market one week ago. HSBC now predicts that gold will average $1,160 per ounce in 2015 from $1,234 previously. The bank has also lowered its 2016 forecast by five percent from $1,275 per ounce to $1,205.
Nonetheless, the bank still believes that in the end, gold will recover from current levels, it said. Gold recently slumped to levels not seen since March 2009 at $1,077 per ounce, following a bear-raid on the market during early trading hours in Asia and what was the most illiquid period of business in the week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Gold Will Fall to $1,020

Posted on 30 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After a relatively uneventful few months for the gold market, prices broke out of their six-month range in dramatic fashion last week. Gold’s fall below the crucial USD1,130/oz level has seen the metal trade to a fresh five-year low of USD1,078/oz in recent days. While the market has since gained some composure, we expect further downside to ensue given the significant shift in market positioning.
Market positioning is reflecting a renewed negativity towards gold. While our short-term forecast of USD1,100/oz was met recently, we were surprised at the manner in which it occurred, having previously expected a gradual grind lower………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iron ore price surges 6%

Posted on 30 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

While other metals markets continue to be mired in negativity, the price of iron ore surged on Wednesday as the market for the steelmaking raw material in top consumer China show signs of a bottom. The benchmark 62% Fe import price including freight and insurance at the Chinese port of Tianjin raced ahead $3.10 or 5.9% to $53.30 a tonne, capping three days of gains according to data provided by The SteelIndex.
The advance in the Metal Bulletin’s benchmark 62%-index at the ports of Qingdao-Rizhao-Lianyungang in China was $2.44 or 4.6% to $55.89 for an 8.7% gain since Friday to a four-week high. The latest move higher was inspired by a bounce back in Chinese steel prices with the most-traded rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange touching $340 on Wednesday. That’s up from record low of $305 at the start of the month………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices have plunged nearly 20% this month

Posted on 29 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China’s crashing stock market and the meltdown in the metals market may be getting all the attention lately, but crude oil is quietly crumbling once again. Oil has plunged nearly 20% this month alone and it briefly dipped below $47 a barrel on Tuesday. That leaves it flirting with the March lows, which was the weakest price since 2009.
The latest selling has been fueled by the same dynamics that caused oil to tumble from $100 last summer. The American energy revolution has created a massive supply glut and the tepid global economy is depressing demand growth………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil market is in the dreaded ‘double dip’ so brace for more losses to come, warns Bank of America

Posted on 29 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices are experiencing a “double dip” and could extend losses as the supply glut persists for another 18 months, according to Bank of America Corp. Risks to growth in China, the prospect of increased Iranian exports after this month’s nuclear deal and a strengthening dollar “could continue to press oil lower,” the bank said in a note dated July 24. Bank of America cut its third-quarter estimate for Brent to US$50 a barrel from US$54, while West Texas Intermediate was lowered to US$45 from US$50.
Brent and WTI returned to bear markets in the past week after falling 20 per cent from peaks reached in June, as a plunge in China’s stock market sparked concern that oil demand in the world’s second-largest economy will falter. Brent traded close to US$53 a barrel on Tuesday and WTI near US$47………………………………………..Full Article: Source

10 Reasons to Love the Oil Price Drop

Posted on 29 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Don’t let tumbling oil prices darken your outlook on stocks or the economy. Yes, U.S. crude prices have dropped into an official bear market, down around 20% since the beginning of June, which will undoubtedly hurt the oil industry and companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BP (BP).
But there are a number of benefits from the decline. Here are 10 of them: Stocks Tend to Rally After Oil Price Drops. When the price of oil goes down, stocks tend to surge. That’s the conclusion of a study published in The Journal of Financial Economics in 2008 by professors Gerben Driesprong, Ben Jacobsen, and Benjamin Maat. They found that when oil prices moved down one standard deviation (that’s a price movement of about 11%) then stocks would rally by 1% the next month………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price to average $1135/oz in Q3 – GFMS

Posted on 29 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The gold price will average $1,135 per ounce in the third quarter of this year, GFMS said in its latest Gold Survey report, and $1,175 in the fourth quarter. This compares to a second quarter average of $1,192 per ounce and current spot gold price of $1,095.
The third quarter is widely expected to see the first increase to US interest rates since 2008. Higher interest rates in theory would push many gold investors into more yield-bearing assets such as bonds. GFMS on the other hand believes that much of the action has already been priced into gold, and that the first increase will in actual fact push the metal’s price higher………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Demand Lowest Since 2009

Posted on 29 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Demand for gold fell to its weakest level since 2009 in the second quarter, as Chinese buyers shunned purchases, the metals consultant GFMS said. “Almost all major physical gold markets suffered in the second quarter,” the London-based research firm, a unit of Thomson Reuters, said Tuesday in commentary published with its latest GFMS Gold Survey.
Physical gold demand fell 14% from a year ago, with demand for bars and coins falling 12%, and demand for jewelry declining 9%, it said. The decline in consumption came despite a 7.5% fall in average U.S. dollar gold prices. A cheaper dollar makes it more affordable for people with other currencies to buy gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

HSBC downgrades 2015 gold price forecast by six percent

Posted on 29 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

HSBC has significantly downgraded its 2015 average gold price forecast, following the brutal sell-off seen in the market one week ago. HSBC now predicts that gold will average $1,160 per ounce in 2015 from $1,234 previously. The bank has also lowered its 2016 forecast by five percent from $1,275 per ounce to $1,205.
Nonetheless, the bank still believes that in the end, gold will recover from current levels, it said. Gold recently slumped to levels not seen since March 2009 at $1,077 per ounce, following a bear-raid on the market during early trading hours in Asia and what was the most illiquid period of business in the week. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Copper Prices Rebound From Six-Year Low on Zambia Supply Threat

Posted on 29 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Copper futures gained the most in two weeks on concern that power restrictions in Zambia will cut supplies there and have ripple effects at global mines. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. said on Monday that Zambia’s state-run power company declared force majeure for supply of electricity to its Kansanshi operation.
The power cut could lower copper output in the second half of the year, and also threatens the company’s progress at its Cobre Panama project in Latin America because of a potential liquidity squeeze, Greg Barnes, a Toronto-based analyst at TD Securities Inc., said in a report on Tuesday. Copper is rebounding after touching a six-year low on Monday as slowing demand in China increased concerns over a glut………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Prices Fall to Four-Month Low Amid Chinese Stocks Rout

Posted on 28 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices fell to a four-month low Monday on concerns about a selloff in Chinese stock markets and increased oil drilling in the U.S. U.S. oil prices have slumped 20% this month as the global glut of oil shows no signs of abating.
Production remains near multidecade highs in the U.S., Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, and analysts say demand could decline in the second half of the year after the busy summer-driving season ends. Light, sweet crude for September delivery settled down 75 cents, or 1.6%, at $47.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since March 20………………………………………..Full Article: Source

As Oil Prices Slide Investors Prepare To Buy

Posted on 28 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Unless you’ve been living in a cave for the past year, you know that the price of crude oil has plummeted. At under $50 per barrel (WTI Crude), gas prices are lower, it’s cheaper to transport goods, and there are a host of other benefits. However, lower oil has also created a few problems. In this article, we’ll explore some of each and discuss a great investment opportunity emerging as a result.
Oil, fossil fuel, crude, whatever moniker you prefer, is highly ingrained in the fabric of our society. Until such time as a less expensive, more efficient, and abundant energy source is identified, oil should continue its dominance………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Which is more likely, $33 or $75 oil?

Posted on 28 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

At a time when stocks are hitting highs, oil prices have been cut in half. Relative to past prices, it is tempting to call oil “cheap” and buy it. Indeed, there are many bullish calls by analysts to do just that. I receive a very large number of emails, and investors are showing a high interest in buying oil ETFs here for the long-term. Let us first try to answer a very simple question, “Will oil go to $33 to $75?”
Based on oil’s current trading pattern, from a medium- to long-term perspective, traditional technical indicators in the categories of momentum, trend, volatility and volume are not only useless, but they are also likely to mislead investors into making wrong decisions………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price recovers from five-year lows

Posted on 28 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The price of gold is hovering around the $1,100 mark after hitting five-and-a-half year lows last week. Gold mining stocks bounced back on Monday morning after gold prices recovered from five-and-a-half year lows. On Friday, gold prices plunged to an intra-day low of $1,077 as investors offloaded the metal amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates, thus making it a less attractive investment.
But after five consecutive weeks in negative territory, the gold spot price crept back towards the $1,100 mark on Monday morning as the weaker dollar helped it recover. However, investors and analysts indicated they were not convinced by the improving gold price………………………………………..Full Article: Source

HSBC cuts 2015, 2016 gold price forecasts

Posted on 28 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

HSBC strategists on Monday lowered their average annual gold price forecasts for this year and next, warning that gold prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short term and may “move within striking distance of $1,000″ an ounce before recovering. HSBC lowered its 2015 average annual price forecast to $1,160 from $1,234 and for 2016 to $1,205 from $1,275.
Among the reasons for gold’s recent selloff is the “drift towards Fed tightening and the associated USD strength, low global inflationary pressure, weak gold demand from India and China and market positioning and momentum,” HSBC strategists said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Deutsche Bank says gold’s fair value is $US750 an ounce

Posted on 28 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices may need to fall another 30 per cent to reach fair value, according to Deutsche Bank, with cheap oil the only potential lifeline for the battered precious metal. Gold is currently trading around $US1096, just above last week’s fresh five-year low of $US1072.30.
But Deutsche’s paper Estimating fair value for gold argues the price of the precious metal needs to drop substantially to bring valuation levels back towards historical averages. “Gold would need to fall towards $US750 per ounce to bring prices in real terms back towards long-run historical averages,” said Deutsche………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver Prices to Hit $50.00?

Posted on 28 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Despite the massive outflow of capital from commodities, a leading indicator suggests that silver prices are about to skyrocket. The last time silver priced approached $50.00 per ounce, it was preceded by a corresponding rise in this key metric.
The grey metal has depreciated by over 30% in the last 12 months. It’s a steep fall for silver, especially in light of the NASDAQ gaining nearly 15%. The pattern seems to indicate a clear direction for capital; out of commodities and into stocks. However, following the trend is the exact opposite of what investors should be doing………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper Drops to Lowest in Six Years Amid Chinese Slowdown

Posted on 28 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Copper slid to the lowest level in six years as the biggest selloff in Chinese equities since 2007 added to concern that the economy will worsen. The Shanghai Composite Index plunged 8.5 percent. China’s industrial profits fell in June, and data on Friday showed a private gauge of manufacturing unexpectedly declined in July to the lowest level in 15 months, boosting speculation that demand is slowing in the country.
China accounts for about 40 percent of the world’s copper consumption. “A rout resumption in Chinese equities prompts more scattered selling in most metals seen this morning,” Michael Turek, the head of base metals at BGC Partners Inc. in New York, said in an e-mail. “They just can’t catch a break or a breath, that is despite all the efforts to stabilize the Chinese markets up until now.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Chinese spot alumina prices hold steady despite smelter cuts

Posted on 28 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Chinese spot alumina prices held steady Monday despite smelter cuts over the past week, industry sources said. However, with further cutbacks expected in the near term prices may be pressured lower, sources said.
There has been increasing talk of planned smelter in the past month on the back of prevailing weak domestic metal prices, with an estimated 600,000-700,000 mt/year of capacity expected to be reduced in the near term. But to date, only one smelter, Beijing Xinheng Group, has confirmed cutting capacity………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Signals from gold prices

Posted on 27 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The yellow metal dominated the world market scene all of last week. Gold slumped to a five-year low, slipping to an intra-day low-point of $1,072.30 by Friday. A late rally that day, however, pushed prices back to around $1,100 an ounce. At best, it helped pare losses from last Monday when the price slid to its lowest since March 2009, to $1,088.05 an ounce.
The Comex gold futures for August still ended their fifth consecutive week in negative territory. Though the rally suggests that there could be an improvement in market sentiment, the bearish undertone persists among retail investors. At the moment, everyone in the international marketplace is wary of gold. Indeed, price movement is set for an uncertain phase, at least in the near-term………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India must determine own gold price, feels IBJA

Posted on 27 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices are fixed internationally by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and these are indicated to importers by banks and nominated agencies in India. Now industry body IBJA (formerly Bombay Bullion Association) wants to play a larger role and is tying up with CME Group, London for deriving a price mechanism similar to LBMA.
“Given our industry size, the industry should be able to derive its own price for gold in India and we should be in a position to dictate price to the world. It is a cause for concern and we too want to be able to have our own bullion price,” Mr. Mehta said. IBJA is awaiting approval from the regulatory authorities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The nickel price can only go up

Posted on 27 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s a strange time to be in mining. Irrational exuberance has been replaced by irrational despondency. Just four-five short years ago even the flimsiest prospect or project could look forward to lavish funding and a fat market cap.
Today even those juniors doing the right thing at the right time still cannot attract investors to take it to the next level. Early stage explorers are being shunned altogether, most investors demand permits in place before taking an interest and even companies with projects near production struggle to attract interest………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Prices Enter Bear Market Amid Global Glut of Crude

Posted on 24 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

U.S. oil prices sank into a bear market Thursday as a global glut of crude shows little sign of abating. Prices had settled below the key $50-a-barrel mark for the first time since early April on Wednesday, and they kept falling for most of Thursday.
An unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories, announced earlier this week, combined with high production already coming from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is raising concerns that the market is settling into a long period of oversupply. Light, sweet crude for September delivery settled down 74 cents, or 1.5%, at $48.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since March 31………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What Should the Government Do About Low Oil Prices?

Posted on 24 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices have been down this year. How should policy makers respond? We put this question to a group of energy researchers, professionals, and other experts. They presented a variety of suggestions that run the gamut—from imposing a carbon tax to letting the market run its course.
Their stories are below, in a compilation that relates to a previous Energy Report and formed the basis of a discussion on The Experts blog this spring. The current downturn in the oil and gas business, like the ups and downs of the cycles that came before it, is fundamentally a result of demand and supply………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Falling gold prices boost demand in India: World Gold Council

Posted on 24 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A fall in gold prices has boosted demand in India, the world’s second largest consumer, despite the summer months being a traditional quiet period, World Gold Council (WGC) said. It also said that fall in the gold prices are not universally perceived as “negative”. According to WGC, gold prices have fallen by 3.2 per cent in India, 3.6 per cent in China and 1.2 per cent in Turkey.
“Here, consumers will view lower prices as a buying opportunity,” it said in its market report. “As a result, despite the summer months being a traditionally quiet period, retailers in these price sensitive markets have seen an uptick in consumer interest. Consumer interest in India has increased too,” it noted………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investors pulling back as gold prices plunge

Posted on 24 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With gold prices tumbling to a five-year low, investors aren’t just getting out of gold, they’re betting against it. Speculators in July amassed record short holdings in the metal, meaning they’re wagering that the price has further to fall. Also telling, the number of hedge funds that are hoping to profit from declines is near a record high.
Altegris Investments’ $513 million Futures Evolution Strategy Fund has increased its bets that gold will fall. “The only place to be right now is short,” said Lara Magnusen, a La Jolla, California-based portfolio strategist at Altegris. “We’ve been in persistently downward price action for gold, but it’s been exacerbated, certainly, this year by a host of fundamental reasons.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold Price Headed to $450.00? $2,000 is More Likely

Posted on 24 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A friend recently said to me, “No matter how you look at it, the gold price is going down to $450.00.” He argued that there’s simply no reason for the yellow metal to trade at $1,100 now.
He also added, “All the problems everyone was worried about are slowly diminishing and the precious metal is simply reacting to it.” Here’s a little background: he’s a trader. He looks for opportunities on a short-term basis and rarely bothers holding any position for longer than one month………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Bank raises oil forecast—but don’t get too hopeful

Posted on 23 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The World Bank has upped its oil price forecast for 2015, but the marginal rebound in the price of Brent crude at the start of the year won’t pull energy prices up to anywhere near 2014 levels, the international body said on Wednesday.
Crude oil is now expected to average $57 per barrel for the year—up from the World’s Bank’s estimate of $53 per barrel back in April. Geopolitical tensions and more closures of high-cost oils rigs could push the forecast even higher, the bank added in its “Commodity Markets Outlook” report………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Bank projects crude oil to average $57/b in 2015, $61/b in 2016

Posted on 23 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The World Bank on Wednesday revised upward its 2015 crude oil price forecast to $57/barrel from $53/b in April, with demand higher than expected in the second quarter, particularly in the US. However, large inventories and rising output from OPEC “suggest prices will likely remain weak in the medium-term,” John Baffes, the World Bank’s senior economist, said in a statement.
The bank said it expects the price to rise to $61/b in 2016 as supply growth slows. The price projections are included in the organization’s latest quarterly Commodity Markets Outlook………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price in worst losing streak since 1996

Posted on 23 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

On Wednesday, gold dropped to the lowest level since March 2010 as negative sentiment overwhelms the sector and analysts predict a return to triple digits for the metal. Futures contracts in New York with August delivery dates were priced as low as $1,087.10 an ounce down more than $15 or over 1% from yesterday’s close.
It’s the tenth straight day of losses and the 6% decline over the period is the worst losing streak for gold since September 1996 when gold was worth around $380 an ounce. Last week large gold futures investors such as hedge funds slashed long positions – bets on a rising price – to the lowest since 2006 when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission first started to collect the data………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver Price Forecast: Here’s Why Silver Prices Could Hit $30

Posted on 23 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Yes, silver prices have been plunging since 2011. But know this: demand for silver is booming while supply is shrinking. The grey metal is due for a big squeeze. The nice thing about the grey metal is that, unlike gold, a substantial amount of demand comes from industries.
Silver has been a staple component in industries for many decades. Its outstanding electrical conductivity makes it a necessary component in a many electronic devices. Silver oxide batteries have also been gaining popularity. In addition, silver has a significant presence in the automotive industry, with more than 36 million ounces being used annually in automobiles………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What’s behind the falling prices of oil, gold and copper

Posted on 22 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

There’s a firesale on raw materials like copper, aluminum, gold and oil, raising concerns about the health of the global economy. The CRB raw industrials spot price index is now at its lowest level since November 2009. The Bloomberg Commodities Index touched levels unseen since June 2002.
What’s going on? “It’s a yellow flag for the global economy. I don’t think it’s a heads up that we’re headed for disaster, but I do think it tells us something,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds. Why are these commodities tanking? First, there simply isn’t enough demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

$100 oil price may come back, but not until 2020

Posted on 22 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

An oil forecaster who predicted last year’s calamitous drop in oil says the price of a barrel of crude will get back to the $100 US level — but not for another five years. In an interview with Bloomberg, PIRA Energy Group founder Gary Ross said that while he sees a long-term rebound in oil prices, right now there’s simply too much oil in world markets for prices to return to where they were any time soon.
According to official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the world pumps out about 95.46 million barrels of oil every day. But demand is only 93.63 million barrels a day — about two million barrels less………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price struggles to rise above $US50

Posted on 22 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices remained under pressure in Asian trade Tuesday, with US oil prices struggling to move above the $US50 mark amid persistent concerns over a global oil glut. A stronger US dollar is also weighing on oil prices after the ICE US dollar index hit a three-month high on Monday, triggering a selloff across commodities as investors shifted to other asset classes.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in August traded at $US50.00 a barrel at 0304 GMT, down $US0.15 in the Globex electronic session. It lost 1.5 per cent in the previous session, falling to a near four-month low of $US50.15 a barrel. September Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $US0.10 to $US56.55 a barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

3 trends that are burying gold prices

Posted on 22 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold bugs are getting squished. Prices for the precious metal hit a five-year low on Monday, closing at $1,107 a troy ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest level since March 2010. Prices fell for a number of reasons, including weaker-than-expected demand in China and expectations that the metal won’t make an attractive haven for investors in a rising interest rate environment.
Analysts as such as David Song, a currency strategist at DailyFX, and Robert Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management don’t expect prices to rebound anytime soon. But that’s fine with Keith Trauner, a co-founder of GoodHaven Capital Management, which has $500 million in assets under management………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bearish gold sentiment sees ABN Amro forecast end-2015 $1,000/oz

Posted on 22 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With sentiment towards gold turning increasingly cold — and the dollar price hitting 5-year lows Monday — ABN Amro is forecasting an end-2015 price of $1,000/troy oz, the bank said Tuesday. During Asia trade the dollar spot price got as low as $1,082/oz Monday and again overnight Tuesday.
The London Bullion Market Association Gold Price settled Tuesday morning at $1,108/tr oz from $1,115/tr oz Monday morning. The Dutch bank put the decline down to a handful of factors including expectations of a US rate hike later this year, technical follow through as the price broke lower and thin liquidity………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How Low Can Gold Prices Go? Maybe $700/Ounce

Posted on 22 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices just hit a five-year low, with the precious metal and related gold ETFs down more than 40% from their 2011 peaks and looking to decline further. That’s bad news to those investing in gold. Worse news? The next level of support for gold prices is at $1,000 an ounce — and if that is breached, we could be looking at $700 an ounce for gold prices, the lowest levels since 2008.
At the beginning of 2015, some investors had hoped that the rout was over after gold prices rallied about 10% to start the year. But gold bullion prices couldn’t hold, and the jump at the beginning of the year can now clearly be seen as a head fake………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper miners to keep churning out metal despite price slide

Posted on 22 July 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Copper’s production costs have fallen in the wake of lower oil prices and weaker local currencies, which means most miners will continue to pump out metal despite a recent slide in prices. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange tumbled nearly a fifth between early May and earlier this month when it touched the lowest in six years at $5,240 a tonne.
It has since recovered about $300, but confidence is fragile as investors worry about the global economy and an expected market surplus this year in the metal. Despite weak prices, however, there is little incentive to cut output as prices are still well above costs at most mines………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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