No one—aside maybe from survivalists who’d stocked up on MREs and assault rifles—was really looking forward to a peak-oil world. Read this 2007 GQ piece by Benjamin Kunkel—while we’re discussing topics from the mid-2000s—that imagines what a world without oil would really be like. Think uncomfortable and violent.
Oil is in nearly every modern product we use, and it’s still what gets us from point A to point B—especially if you need to get from A to B in a plane. If we were really to see the global oil supply peak and decline sharply, even as demand continued to go up, well, apocalyptic might not be too large a word…………………………………….Full Article: Source

The U.S. shale boom will send “shockwaves” through the global oil trade over the next five years, benefiting the nation’s refiners and displacing OPEC as the driver of supply growth, the IEA said.
North America will provide 40 percent of new supplies to 2018 through the development of light, tight oil and oil sands, while the contribution from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will slip to 30 percent, according to the International Energy Agency………………………………………Full Article: Source

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase crude exports this month as refiners boost processing ahead of the peak summer travel season, tanker tracker Oil Movements said.
The group that supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil will ship 23.84 million barrels a day in the four weeks to May 25, up from 23.55 million barrels in the previous period, the researcher said in an e-mailed report. The figures exclude Angola and Ecuador…………………………………Full Article: Source

If oil prices across the globe don’t seem to square with what one would expect in a free market system, there’s a reason for that. The OPEC cartel, according to a new published by Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE):
[H]as at times been effective in forcing up the price of oil and, thereby, allowing the export nations to obtain a significant premium captured by national oil companies on behalf of their sovereigns. At times this means a transfer of wealth from oil-consuming nations to oil-producing nations totaling hundreds of billions of dollars more than what the competitive-market price of oil would suggest………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Labour disruptions in South Africa pushed the platinum market into a narrow deficit in 2012, for the first time in seven years, Thomson Reuters GFMS said on Thursday.
Speaking at the launch of the group’s Platinum & Palladium Survey in Johannesburg, Thomson Reuters GFMS, Research Director for Mining, William Tankard, said the market swung to a marginal deficit of 83,000 ounces in 2012………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The latest assessment of the estimated oil reserves in the Bakken and Three Forks formation in the northern U.S. plains states was about twice as much as previously thought. Those plays, spread out over North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana, could bring the United States one step closer to energy independence, the U.S. interior secretary said.
New technologies used to get at the oil locked in those shale formations has redefined the geopolitics associated with the global energy sector. The latest government figures suggest the United States is relying less on OPEC for its oil, yet Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said talk of energy independence is, in his words, “naive.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold’s sharp decline, which saw the metal fall to $1,321 on April 16, led to a global surge in physical demand. But some market participants question whether this appetite and the upward price moves are sustainable.
Surging demand drove the US Mint to suspend sales of 1/10-ounce gold coins, Reuters reported. By April 30, the Mint had reported sales of 312,500 gold coins. Equaling 209,500 ounces, April’s gold coins sales are more than a quarter of the 753,000 ounces sold in 2012, according to Bloomberg………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Cotton inventories at the end of July 2014 will be 11 percent higher than estimated last month as production gains outpace improved demand, according to an industry group.
Stockpiles will climb to 18.25 million metric tons, the equivalent of about nine months of global mill use, and up from 16.44 million forecast a month earlier, the International Cotton Advisory Committee said today in an e-mailed statement. In the 12 months that start Aug. 1, production will be 24.61 million, up 4.9 percent from April’s projection, the Washington-based group said. The consumption estimate was increased 2.3 percent to 24.25 million tons………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Here’s something unexpected: commodity prices have actually been rising, at least according to Bank of Nova Scotia’s monthly commodity price index.The index rose in March by 1.6 per cent over February and inched up slightly in the first quarter as a whole.“Firmer overall prices in March – likely a surprise to financial markets – were led by the oil and gas index (+6.8 per cent month over month),” Scotiabank said.
In the plus column were Western Canadian heavy oil, natural gas export prices to the U.S., and propane prices, and for non-energy commodities, forest and agricultural products………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Macquarie Research, a unit of Macquarie Group, said that despite China’s economic growth, apparent demand for metals remained weak, particularly in the US, Europe and South Korea.
“Certainly, industrial production is stuttering rather than accelerating and metal consumers are maintaining minimum working capital — this situation should improve as lead indicators rise. However this process does not seem aggressive enough to drive commodity prices,” it said.The bank cut its 2013 copper price forecast by 5.2 per cent compared with its January forecast, to $US7459 a tonne, and cut its 2014 copper price forecast by 14.7 per cent to $US6550 a tonne………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Since its inception in 1960, OPEC has never been shy in flexing its energy-fuelled power over the West. But those days are gone. And it’s not just the US and Israeli shale gas and oil revolution which threatens OPEC decline. OPEC is already grappling with a whole bunch of serious energy problems that are colluding to hasten its demise.
Let’s just focus on the OPEC kingpin and world’s leading oil producer, Saudi Arabia. Even as the Saudis and other OPEC leaders have played down the nascent impact of US shale development on global production (especially America’s growing self-sufficiency), the signs are that the Saudis are increasingly desperate to keep their world no 1 ranking in oil production………………………………………..Full Article: Source

There an oddity about gold at the moment with phenomenal physical demand in Asia, U.S. and Europe, while the actual spot prices languishes. We have written before about the strange disconnect between paper and physical demand — with the former bearish yet the latter bullish — but rarely has there been such a clear divergence.
Over the last few days on we have run many stories about this … Dubai running short of physical, U.S. Mint selling out of smaller denomination bars, coins and bars flying off the shelves in India and China and queues outside leading gold sellers such as Degussa in Germany………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Describing the current demand supply patterns in the world oil market as well-balanced, United Arab Emirates’ (UAE’s) Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazroui said there is no need for OPEC countries to increase production, Xinhua news agency reported citing a local media report.
Delivering a keynote speech at the opening of the two-day annual Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday, Al-Mazroui said that despite rising energy demand in emerging markets in East Asia in particular, many OPEC exporting nations will not be able to increase their oil production, news agency WAM reported………………………………………..Full Article: Source

There’s no way of falling off a cycle gracefully, but that won’t stop Wall Street from trying. The past week or so has seen a clutch of reports from bank analysts signaling that the end is nigh for the commodities supercycle, with at least two on Friday alone. It comes amid a broad sell-off in hard assets of all descriptions, with gold’s slide the most prominent.
But given the efforts of the past decade or so to promote commodities as an investment for the masses—via such novelties as metal-backed exchange traded funds—don’t expect a quick funeral………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Hedge funds and other big speculators plowed new money into gold even after the precious metal posted a record loss in dollar terms this week, according to trading data on Friday that also showed inflows for many other commodities.
The net long money held by money managers across 22 U.S.-traded commodities rose nearly $950 million, or 6 percent, to $56.5 billion in the week ended April 16, according to Reuters calculations of data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran sees no need for an emergency meeting of OPEC over a recent drop in crude prices before the producers’ annual session at the end of May, Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi sai.
“No extraordinary meeting is needed as the May 31 meeting is coming up, and the price of oil had not gone below $ 100 per barrel for a long time,” Qasemi said on the sidelines of an oil and gas trade fair in Tehran. In the last meeting of OPEC, held on December 12, oil producers decided to hold an emergency session if oil prices fall below 100 dollars per barrel, Qasemi said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, describes itself as “a permanent intergovernmental organization of 12 oil-exporting developing nations that coordinates and unifies the petroleum policies of its Member Countries.”
Historically, the organization has exerted considerable influence on the world oil market, with many even characterizing it as a cartel. Over the past three decades or so, it has produced a little less than half of the world’s oil, with its Gulf State members still controlling most of the world’s crude oil spare capacity. By lowering their collective output, OPEC members can push global oil prices higher, or so the logic goes………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Coal’s golden renaissance … While coal use in electricity generation has dwindled in the United States, it has been staging a quiet comeback in Europe. Coal-fired power generation is growing at an annual rate of 5% and 22% in Germany and Spain, while gas-fired generation is falling by 15% and 23% respectively.
In the UK, coal-fired plants accounted for 39% of electricity generation in 2012, a 32% increase on 2011, while gas use declined by the same amount. “As the dispatch of coal plants is more economic in Europe at current coal and CO2 emissions prices, gas lost 5 percentage points of market share in the power sector in 2012………………………………………..Full Article: Source

U.S. oil demand is expected to trend lower in 2013 while China will account for much of the oil demand growth, OPEC said in its monthly report.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its report for April that the U.S. economy was on the road to recovery. It said first quarter economic growth was around 2.5 percent to 3 percent. The cartel said, however, that the forecast for crude oil demand was uncertain because of budgetary concerns in the United States……………………………………..Full Article: Source

The International Energy Agency has revised down its estimate of European oil demand for the second consecutive month and warned that the Cypriot bailout is weighing on the continent’s demand for oil.
“Every time the weakness of Europe’s economy or the severity of its debt crisis has hit the news, that has tended to translate into a small hit to oil consumption,” said Antoine Halff, head of the IEA’s oil markets division……………………………………..Full Article: Source

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the largest U.S. bank by assets and the top investment bank by fees, is questioning the so-called universal bank model’s future.
Top-tier investment banks are “uninvestable at this point with a risk of spinoff from universal banks,” JPMorgan analysts led by London-based Kian Abouhossein wrote in a research note today. They cited potential rule changes and curbs on capital and funding……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Production of oil from shale deposits will be too limited and costly to significantly harm the interests of established oil exporters, the adviser to Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said, in the most comprehensive response yet from OPEC’s top producer to an energy boom that is reshaping global markets.
However, Ibrahim al-Muhanna, a close adviser of Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, acknowledged the psychological impact the U.S. shale boom is having on members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, most of whom have so far played down the significance of the phenomenon………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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The record collapse in U.S. corn exports and shrinking domestic demand are leaving more grain in silos, spurring a bear market just eight months after drought drove prices to an all-time high.
Stockpiles will be 836 million bushels (21.2 million metric tons) on Aug. 31, or 32 percent more than the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast last month, according to the average of 35 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Export sales from the world’s largest grower and shipper fell 54 percent in the year that began Sept. 1, heading for the biggest annual drop in government data that starts in 1960………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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World oil demand will rise in 2013 and 2014, but moderate recovery in economic growth will keep the gains lower than projected a month earlier, U.S. government forecasters said Tuesday. In 2013, rising consumption in China and in other developing nations is expected to offset weakness in European economies, the Energy Information Administration said.
World oil use is expected to rise by 1 million barrels in 2013 to 90 million barrels a day. That’s some 140,000 barrels a day below the forecast made a month earlier. In 2014, global demand is expected to rise to 1.3 million barrels a day, about 200,000 barrels a day less than the EIA’s March forecast………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Recently, I explained how high oil prices can bring on financial collapse for oil importers. In this post, I’ll discuss the flip side of the situation: how oil exporters reach financial collapse.
Unfortunately, we have many examples of countries that were oil exporters, but are dealing with collapse situations. Egypt, Syria, and Yemen all have had political disruptions since 2011. These may not be called financial collapse, but they all took place as the country’s oil exports decreased and as the price of imported food rose. Another example is the Former Soviet Union (FSU). It collapsed in 1991, after a period of low oil prices, in what looks very much like a financial collapse………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a report this week that it now expects China to overtake the U.S. in terms of oil imports next year. The report estimates that China will be importing 6 million barrels a day (bpd) by the end of the year, and that U.S. imports—which declined by 21 percent in 2012—will drop below the 6 million bpd mark in 2014.
The report also said that China may have to import as much as 60 percent of its oil needs this year. This is a dramatic turnaround from 2011 when the U.S. imported 8.7 million bpd compared to just 5.5 million bpd from China, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The International Energy Agency is interested in deepening its ties with emerging economies, as changes to supply and demand trends increase their role in global energy markets, the group said in a statement published on its web site Friday.
“As the global energy map is redrawn, the IEA’s 28 member countries face many of the same energy challenges as key emerging economies, and we share a common interest in building a secure, sustainable energy future,” the IEA’s Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in the statement………………………………………..Full Article: Source

It seems that collective memory is becoming shorter and shorter. We just celebrated two important holidays in the Judeo-Christian traditions that commemorate events that took place thousands of years ago. Yet, now, in the age of Internet, people seem to forget major events after weeks, or even days.
Given this weeks’ performance in the precious metals, people have forgotten that only two weeks ago Cyprus was on the brink of unraveling not only the European union, but the sacrosanct foundations of fractional banking, with the crisis highlighting the fundamental fault lines of both………………………………………..Full Article: Source

U.S. oil production is putting a crimp on demand from OPEC suppliers, the cartel said in its monthly report for March. Saudi Arabia alone cut its output by around 700,000 barrels per day during the last two months in 2012. Some reports said that if U.S. oil production expands as it has, it may overtake Saudi Arabia by the end of the decade.
That did little to discourage Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, who said Asian demand may keep oil markets bustling. OPEC, in its last report, said it left its predictions for 2013 unchanged from last year. Though Asian demand may indeed keep the cartel relevant, internal developments in member states may crimp its mid-term potential………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia faces uncertainty on a number of fronts, even as gas projects worldwide are seeking customers there, International Energy Agency (IEA) analyst Anne-Sophie Corbeau told Canada’s Financial Post this week.
Among the questions regarding demand from Asia are whether Japan will return to heavy use of nuclear power and how successfully shale gas can be developed in China………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Russia and South Africa, which together control about 80 percent of the world’s reserves of platinum group metals, plan to create a trading bloc similar to OPEC to control the flow of exports.
“Our goal is to coordinate our actions accordingly to expand the markets for realization of these metals,” Russian Natural Resources Minister Sergey Donskoy said yesterday in an interview at a summit of leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa in Durban. “The price depends on the structure of the market and we will form the structure of the market.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey increased their official gold reserves in February, data from the International Monetary Fund showed on Tuesday.
Russia raised its gold holdings by 6.998 tonnes to 976.952 tonnes, and Turkey added 5.574 tonnes to increase its gold reserve to 375.731 tonnes. Kazakhstan boosted its gold holdings by 4.914 tonnes to 121.670 tonnes in February………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China’s state-owned oil companies reported falling net profits last year due to the economic slowdown and state-controlled fuel prices, even as they are set to continue their rapid expansion overseas.
Sinopec, China’s largest refining company, reported on Sunday that net profits for 2012 fell 12.8 per cent from the previous year to Rmb63.9bn ($10.3bn), due to price controls for refined fuels and losses in the petrochemical sector. PetroChina, a subsidiary of CNPC, reported net profit down 13.3 per cent last year, while Cnooc, China’s largest offshore oil producers, saw net profit fall 9.3 per cent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Though US oil production is experiencing steady expansion, Graeber writes, it’s starting to slow down and with it potentially goes the revenue on which Paul Ryan’s budget plan depends.
The United States is expected to lead the pack among non-OPEC members in terms of oil supply growth for 2013. That’s the assessment from this month’s market report from the Vienna-based cartel. OPEC said it projected U.S. oil supply growth of around 600,000 barrels per day in 2013, with most of that coming out of tight oil formations in the country………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC’s output may rise in the second quarter to meet increasing demand from refiners, indicating prices will increase as spare production capacity is reduced, Morgan Stanley said.
Output by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could rise by 850,000 barrels a day from April to June, the bank said in the report published today. The group will pump more as refineries come out of maintenance and utilities in Saudi Arabia and Japan use more crude and fuel oil for electricity generation, said Morgan Stanley………………………………………..Full Article: Source

For decades, the basic farm goods and industrial raw materials that underpin the economies of many poor countries sold at low and volatile prices on world markets. Development experts and government officials lamented that these low returns kept nations in Africa, Asia and Latin America from expanding their economies and reducing poverty.
Since the end of 2002, however, commodities prices have staged an unprecedented and long-lived boom - yet the windfall, while contributing to notable increases in gross domestic product (GDP) in a number of countries, especially in Asia, has been less significant in other countries, and has not led in those cases to other economic progress that was hoped for, such as economic diversification. In the countries that have done less well, there have been disappointingly small declines in poverty rates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

In the world of commodities, the past couple of years should be viewed as an abrasive palate-cleanser between the first course of the supercycle — which ran from 2000 until 2008 — and the main course that is now being prepared.
To understand why, one first needs to re-examine the specifics of China’s recent nominal dollar growth in gross domestic product (GDP) — an extraordinary compound annual growth rate of 18.5% over the past decade. Even now, China’s nominal dollar GDP — that pool of demand that matters most to business — is still growing by about 13% a year…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Maintenance at newly built Chinese refineries is weighing on global oil demand, according to the International Energy Agency. In recent years China and other Asian governments have invested heavily in domestic refining capacity to process crude oil into usable products such as petrol and diesel.
The IEA expects Chinese refineries to demand around 300,000 barrels a day less crude oil in March compared with February, and a similar month-on-month fall in demand at refineries elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Silver has been trading sideways so far in 2013, but what will the rest of the year bring? Will 2013 be the year silver prices break out or crash and burn? What is a sustainable silver price for mining companies and where will the metal come from to supply the next generation of industrial and investment demand?
Most important, how can investors make money off this volatile sector? These were the burning questions The Gold Report took to analysts, money managers and heads of silver mining companies. The answers may surprise you…………………………………….Full Article: Source

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast of demand for its oil this year, citing growing production from U.S. shale deposits. If the scaled-back forecast proves correct, OPEC could be on track to have its lowest share of the global oil market in more than 10 years.
OPEC’s move comes as industry experts increasingly question whether the producers’ group, which has had a decisive influence on the oil market since the 1970s, can maintain its position amid a boom in U.S. oil production resulting from shale- rock drilling technology………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Its the season for Chinese traders to replenish downstream copper stocks, but while some restocking is expected ahead of summer, price spikes are not, says UBS. According to the bank, the main reason for this is high warehouse stocks that have subdued the price traders are willing to pay for local metal. As a result, it says, writing in a new note titled, ShortKut: Will China Restock? Currently, copper traders in China seem comfortable with the abundance of metal.
“Inventory managers don’t want to run out of stock, but they also don’t want to be caught holding high-cost metal for long periods. Prudent managers of copper inventory are aware of SHFE and LME Asia warehouse stocks, which are at record highs and trending up,” the bank writes. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Investment banks are notorious for their “boom-bust” approach to business, riding cyclical profit opportunities to the hilt until the opportunity dwindles and they are forced to retrench. If commodities markets continue to normalize and volatility remains muted, we could see another wave of savage job cuts at the investment banks.
With big finance firms still trading at deep discounts to their historic norms, investors everywhere are wondering if this is the new normal or if finance stocks are a screaming buy today………………………………………..Full Article: Source

If you suffer a heart attack but your doctor thinks you’ve got a nasty case of indigestion, the medicine he prescribes probably won’t cure you. The same applies to policy-making and legislating: Misunderstand the problem, and you’re likely to come up with a useless — or damaging — response.
Anne Korin and Gal Luft, co-directors of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS), have long argued that liberals, conservatives, and libertarians have all misdiagnosed why the West has become dependent on oil; why the price of oil keeps rising no matter how much we drill, conserve, and boost miles per gallon; why dependence on increasingly expensive oil is a dire threat; and what we can do to restore the health of our national and economic security……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Few pieces of data are as important for the oil market as the monthly estimate of China’s oil imports released by Beijing’s General Administration of Customs.
China’s rapidly growing economy accounted for a third of global oil demand growth in 2012, and with efficiency measures and slow economic growth expected to weigh further on demand in the industrialised world, that is unlikely to be a one-off………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Opec crude oil output grew in February - the first monthly increase since October - owing to higher exports from Iraq and a slight increase in supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia, Trade Arabia citing a survey. Supply from the 12-member Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was 30.32 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 30.21m bpd in January, the survey of shipping data and sources at oil firms, Opec and consultants found.
The survey indicates Opec output has risen for the first month since October 2012, before cutbacks by Saudi Arabia which coincided with a rise in oil prices towards $120 a barrel. Even so, analysts said, supply remains low compared to recent months………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Turkey’s exports to OPEC countries were up by 74 percent in 2012 over the previous year to reach nearly $38 billion, according to data from Turkey’s statistics authority. Exports to the 12 OPEC nations counted for 25 percent of Turkey’s overall sales abroad as the country ran a surplus of $17.6 billion, which marked a fivefold increase over 2011.
Iraq claimed the biggest share from Turkish exports among OPEC countries with $10.8 billion in goods and services, which was followed by Iran with $9.9 billion and by United Arab Emirates with $8.1 billion………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Natural gas production and consumption are increasing globally and Asia is the fastest growing natural gas market, but the commodity’s price is still largely dictated by long-term contracts indexed to oil.
The relationship between oil and natural gas prices has disconnected and the spread has widened to historic levels, which puts Asian economic competitiveness at risk warns the IEA in a new report titled “Developing a Natural Gas Trading Hub in Asia - Obstacles and Opportunities.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

The biggest development in global oil markets last year was arguably the spectacular rise of shale oil production in the US and the realisation of how transformational it could be. The oil side of the US shale gas revolution has been building steadily but it was only last year that it dawned on many forecasters that the US is set to overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s biggest oil producer by the end of the decade.
Even the Saudi Arabian-controlled OPEC oil cartel was caught offguard. It was forced to revise oil production forecasts in its annual world oil outlook to say developed countries would be producing more oil in 2016 than developing countries………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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The price of gold has started off the year on a negative note and has lost nearly 3.9% of its value (year to date). Moreover, gold hasn’t done well in 2012. Is the big gold rally of 2006-2010 over? Is it time to change our way we consider gold as an investment that will sharply appreciate over time?
Due to the weakness in the gold market, major gold companies have suffered from it, as it reflected in their financial reports. What’s up ahead for the major bullion companies? Let’s take a closer look at these issues and try and figure what is up ahead for both gold and bullion companies……………………………………Full Article: Source

The International Energy Agency remains largely in the dark over the real pace of China’s surging oil demand despite long-running attempts to persuade the county to publish official data on consumption and oil stocks, the IEA’s top energy security official said Tuesday.
China continues to turn down requests for information on its oil demand and stock levels in particular, as the country believes it is in its best interest to keep data on sales and releases from its growing strategic petroleum reserves a secret, Keisuke Sadamori told an oil conference in London……………………………………Full Article: Source