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The commodities outlook for 2015

Posted on 09 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The performance of commodities depends largely on what happens in China, Europe and the US. It will be another four or five years before commodity prices enter their next cycle and we start seeing an upward trend in prices again, says Cadiz Corporate Solutions Mining Specialist Peter Major. Last year saw most commodities finish below their January starting price and, with the global economic growth outlook showing minimal upturn, there will be more of the same in 2015.
“I don’t see gold going up. I definitely don’t see palladium going up. I think silver, zinc and lead look a bit cheap and copper is neutral to slightly pricy. But everybody is still happy to produce copper at current prices,” says Major. The gold price is still hovering around the $1,200 per ounce mark and will likely remain thereabouts or go lower………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Jim Rogers Gold Price 50% Correction Low During 2015

Posted on 09 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Jim Rogers Gold outlook for 2015 according to a recent youtube video is for the gold price to halve from its all time high during 2015, which implies a drop from its April 2011 high of $1923 to $960 as the following extract illustrates -
“We have a lot of people who bought gold in the last 14 years. Gold has not had a proper correction for a long long time and in my view until there is a proper correction Gold cannot make a bottom and start over.” “Gold has not been down 50% in many years and that is not normal, most things go down 50% every 3 or 4 years, it’s just the way markets work.” “If Gold were to go down 50% that would be $960″………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The outlook for the base metals sector this year

Posted on 09 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

We are updating our commodity price forecast by marking-to-market our short-term and medium term prices. The most meaningful changes were for copper, nickel and molybdenum in 2015/16 and thermal/HCC coal throughout the whole forecast period and long term. DCM’s commodity preferences are n>Ni>Cu>coal (bulks). The new reality driving the adjustment to our forecast prices is the on-going strength of the U.S. dollar, the slowdown in the global economy (deficient demand), and lack of supply discipline.
The lessons learned from oil’s price collapse, is that there needs to be a significant reduction in supply before prices can rebound. Copper prices may suffer a similar examination in 2015. Given the recent flow of funds, we do not expect base metal stocks to outperform until the U.S. dollar peaks (first U.S. rate hike?). So investor patience will be tested. We expect strong trading rallies in 2015 as risk/reward attractive, especially if the U.S. dollar corrects………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The commodities outlook for 2015

Posted on 08 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold and palladium seen flat, upside potential in platinum and palladium. It will be another four or five years before commodity prices enter their next cycle and we start seeing an upward trend in prices again, says Cadiz Corporate Solutions Mining Specialist Peter Major.
Last year saw most commodities finish below their January starting price and, with the global economic growth outlook showing minimal upturn, there will be more of the same in 2015. “I don’t see gold going up. I definitely don’t see palladium going up. I think silver, zinc and lead look a bit cheap and copper is neutral to slightly pricy. But everybody is still happy to produce copper at current prices,” says Major………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold is glittering once again

Posted on 08 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With stocks, oil and the euro all plunging since the year began, the yellow metal is off to a hot start in the first few days of 2015. Although gold pulled back a bit Wednesday as the broader market rallied, prices are still up about 2.5% so far. Ditto for the popular SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD). And Newmont Mining (NEM) has surged 5%, making it one of the top performing stocks in the S&P 500 so far in 2015.
Why is gold glittering? And can it last? The gold rally is likely due to renewed fears about Europe, particularly what might happen if the Syriza party wins Greek elections on January 25………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price in 2015: Playing Russian roulette

Posted on 07 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What happened in 2014 -Gold ended the year not far below its opening levels, but symbolically at least it’s the first back-to-back decline since 1998. After a torrid 2013, gold 2014’s highs and lows were 20% or $237 apart, making it the quietest year since 2008. Managed money seemed to lose interest in trading gold.
Volumes on paper market were down except for a few flurries towards the end of the year and a couple of, let’s call it, interesting trading patterns. Gold’s much-admired safe haven status took a beating. Russia, Ukraine, Iraq, Syria failed to persuade investors that gold would protect them from geopolitical carnage………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Metals less precious in 2015

Posted on 07 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices are set to remain low in 2015, as South Africa’s platinum miners continue to recover from the 2014 strike. Most metals face re-strained prospects due to the expected slowdown in growth in China, a major resource importer. The gold price plummeted 28% in 2013 and hit a four-year low to reach $1,171.10 per ounce on 31 October.
This was two days after the US Federal Reserve ended its five- year bond-buying programme. Gold had held appeal as an inflation hedge during that period. Decreasing demand from China, the world’s largest gold consumer, coupled with expected interest rate rises in 2015, also depressed prices. US-based Citi Research revised its gold forecast for 2015 to $1,225, down from $1,365………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will 2015 be the Recovery Year for Energy and Commodities?

Posted on 06 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Last year was a dismal year for oil, the energy sector in general, commodities, and gold. Following through with the theme of my weekend newspaper column of how investors tend to shop for the next year’s winners from the lists of the previous year’s hottest out-performers, while studies show they’d be much better off considering the previous year’s under-performers, leads us to the worst performers of last year.
Are they oversold? Are their bear markets over? Are they at least due for a bear market rally? So far, oil is showing no signs of bottoming. After attempting to hold at $55 a barrel in December, it has declined to a new low………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why OPEC is Playing a Dangerous Game With Oil Markets

Posted on 06 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC appears to be standing firm to its commitment of keeping oil exports constant in an effort to squeeze marginal oil producers in the U.S., Russia, and elsewhere out of the market. The theory is, pain today for gain tomorrow.
This general plan has been done before, as fellow Fool Tyler Crowe recently pointed out here. The oil glut of the early 1980s shocked the market and countries like the U.S., who were growing oil production, suddenly stopped drilling and became major OPEC oil importers. The flood of supply stoked increased consumption, lower production, and higher market share and revenue for OPEC. But will the strategy work again?……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Copper Sees Red on Surplus Metal Fears

Posted on 06 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Already battered commodities prices suffered yet another blow as the U.S. dollar soared to its highest level in more than a decade on Friday. Among the casualties was copper, the ubiquitous base metal that could be found inside electric wires and on circuit boards.
As the Wall Street Journal Dollar Index gauged the greenback at its strongest level since 2003 against a basket of 16 other currencies, spot copper prices retreated to $6,309 a tonne, just $3 shy of an almost five year low struck last month. Because copper is denominated in U.S. dollars, a stronger greenback weighs on demand as the commodity becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What Will 2015 Have In Store For Commodities Prices?

Posted on 06 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

If you are a miner with a product to sell, or even if you’re an explorer simply hoping to have a product to sell one day, there seems little doubt that 2015 is opening on a fairly downbeat note. The gold price remains hidebound at under US$1,200 per ounce, silver is correspondingly weak, platinum remains an underperformer in spite of the supply side shocks of the previous year, and the base metals, with one or two exceptions, are all subject to the effects of a slowdown in the rate of Chinese growth.
According to the latest estimates, China is likely to book growth of around 7.4 per cent for 2014, the slowest rate recorded since 1990. That, said commentary published in the Daily Telegraph today, marks “a turning point for the global commodities industry as a whole”………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China’s slowdown will see commodities falling 10pc in 2015

Posted on 05 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

IHS forecasts another tough year for commodities prices as China misses economic growth targets. If 2014 goes down as an “annus horribilis” for the commodities industry, few pundits are betting that prices will improve significantly over the next 12 months.
Across the board, from industrial metals through to soft commodities and oil, prices have dipped sharply over the last year as a combination of weakening demand growth and excess supply became a common theme across the entire sector………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity bear market over: Boockvar

Posted on 05 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Be a contrarian this year; buy commodities and don’t pile on to the bullishness of the U.S. dollar, Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, told CNBC. That’s because he believes the commodity bear market that started in September 2011 when gold topped out is coming to an end.
“Oil is the last major commodity to really crash which tells me this is the end of the commodity bear market. Oil will be the last one to recover but gold, agriculture [and] industrial metals will be the first to recover,” Boockvar, also a CNBC contributor, said……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil Drops Most Since 2008 as OPEC Battles Shale

Posted on 05 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil slumps the most in 2014 amid a battle for market share between Opec and shale oil producers Oil fell in 2014 by the most since the 2008 global financial crisis as US producers and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries ceded no ground in their battle for market share amid a supply glut.
The US benchmark ended at a five-year low on 31 December, capping a 46 percent drop in 2014, as stockpiles of crude oil and petrol reached seasonal record highs and as OPEC produced more than its quota in December for a seventh month. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it expects a “far lower” new normal for prices and Barclays Plc said oil has “further downside risk”………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Who Is Behind the Oil War and How Low Will the Price of Crude Go in 2015?

Posted on 05 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Who is to blame for the staggering collapse of the price of oil? Is it the Saudis? Is it the United States? Are Saudi Arabia and the U.S. government working together to hurt Russia? And if this oil war continues, how far will the price of oil end up falling in 2015? As you will see below, some analysts believe that it could ultimately go below 20 dollars a barrel.
If we see anything even close to that, the U.S. economy could lose millions of good paying jobs, billions of dollars of energy bonds could default and we could see trillions of dollars of derivatives related to the energy industry implode. The global financial system is already extremely vulnerable, and purposely causing the price of oil to crash is one of the most deflationary things that you could possibly do. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold Price Looks Ready to Go Higher from Here

Posted on 05 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The big picture in Gold hasn’t changed much over the past month. For approximately nine weeks now Gold has been consolidating around prior support of 1,182.20, a price first hit back in June of 2013. This price area was then tested as support first in December 2013, then more recently in May 2014.
During that 16-month time frame Gold consolidated forming a bearish descending triangle pattern. It broke out to the downside nine weeks ago. However, there has been no follow through as it bounced off 1,132.08 and has crept higher since, closing at 1,189.60 last week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China frees prices of commodities, services in fresh reforms

Posted on 05 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China has freed prices of 24 commodities and services, removing all price controls on agricultural products, among other reforms, its top economic planning agency said.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued a document last month, letting the market decide prices of tobacco leaves, the last agricultural product previously under the government’s price control, it said in the announcement published on its website……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodity supply, global growth outlook & US dollar to continue to play dominant roles in 2015

Posted on 02 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the third quarter of 2014, commodity price weakness was one of the most dominant themes in financial markets. Most commodities we track were not able to withstand this strong down trend. Oil prices dropped because of ample supply, political factors, concerns about the demand outlook and a higher US dollar. Precious metals were also hit hard. Silver was the worst performing precious metal, while gold was the best performing one, while still losing 8%.
Base metals, except nickel, did relatively well, because of a lower sensitivity to the US dollar and a less substantial supply overhang. Commodity supply, the global growth outlook and the US dollar, will continue to play dominant roles in the first quarter of 2015. Oversupply will remain a challenge for energy markets. This will continue to depress oil prices in 2015, in our view………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Some Predictions For The 2015 Oil Market

Posted on 02 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Some predictions are easy to make because they are simply acknowledgment of reality. Best example: The sun will come up, but solar power will remain unreliable, unpredictable, expensive, and the darling of environmentalists. On a more serious note, Libya can be expected to remain unstable, given that the opposing forces are too balanced for one to become dominant quickly. Production will fluctuate.
Similarly, expect uncertainty about the Middle East political situation, including Abadi’s attempt to establish a stable government in Iraq and the ongoing negotiations with Iran over its nuclear research program. Both will have some impact on the market, causing minor price fluctuations, but where nothing but time can convince observers that Iraq is stable, an agreement with Iran could send prices plummeting………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran says Saudi Arabia should move to curb oil price fall

Posted on 02 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Falling world oil prices will hurt countries across the Middle East unless Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, takes action to reverse the slump, Iran’s deputy foreign minister told Reuters. Hossein Amir Abdollahian described Saudi Arabia’s inaction in the face of a six-month slide in oil prices as a strategic mistake and said he still hoped the kingdom, Tehran’s main rival in the Gulf, would respond.
Oil prices closed on Wednesday at a 5-1/2 year low, registering their second-biggest ever annual decline after OPEC oil exporters, led by Saudi Arabia, chose to maintain oil output despite a global glut and calls from some of the cartel’s members - including Iran and Venezuela - to cut production………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will 2015 Be The Turning Point For Metals?

Posted on 02 January 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities have been in a bear market since the start of 2011 (See Diagram 1) and amongst the worst performing metals are Gold, Silver, Copper and Iron Ore. Gold saw a low of 1142 $/oz in November 2014 and a high of 1895 $/oz in September 2011. The peak to trough was 39.7% and it’s currently (26Dec14) at 1195.8 $/oz.
Silver saw a low of 15.28 $/oz in November 2014 and a high of 48.70 $/oz in April 2011. The peak to trough was 68.6% and it’s currently (26Dec14) at 15.77 $/oz. Copper saw a low of 2.81 $/lb in December 2014 and a high of approx. 4.6 $/lb in Feb 2011. The peak to trough was 38.8% and it’s current (26Dec14) at 2.81 $/lb………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Supply is key to commodities’ volatile year

Posted on 23 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

“Demand hasn’t been bad,” Ivan Glasenberg, chief executive of Glencore, one of the world’s resource companies, told investors this month. “Demand is still growing even in oil, iron ore and thermal coal. So why have prices come down? Well . . . we have all invested too much . . . and increased supply in a big manner.”
Supply has been the key narrative in commodity markets this year, determining the winners and the losers in everything from nickel to soyabeans. It is the reason commodities are on course to be the worst-performing major asset class for a third consecutive year. The Bloomberg Commodity index has fallen 14 per cent in 2014 to a five-year low………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Opec leader vows not to cut oil output even if price hits $20

Posted on 23 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Opec will not cut production even if the price of oil falls to $20 a barrel, the cartel’s de facto leader said, spelling out a dramatic policy shift that will have far-reaching implications for the global energy industry.
In an unusually frank interview, Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, tore up Opec’s traditional strategy of keeping prices high by limiting oil output and replaced it with a new policy of defending the cartel’s market share at all costs. “It is not in the interest of Opec producers to cut their production, whatever the price is,” he told the Middle East Economic Survey. “Whether it goes down to $20, $40, $50, $60, it is irrelevant.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

OPEC’s Dominance Of Energy Market ‘Is Over’

Posted on 23 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The era of OPEC domination over the global energy market is over, the former head of the oil cartel has told Sky News. Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, the former energy minister of Qatar, said that the group of 12 oil exporters, which dominated the production and price-setting of energy for half a century, had surrendered its power to single-handedly affect prices.
He urged the organisation to collaborate with Russia and reduce global oil production. Asked whether the era of OPEC dominance was finished, he said: “It’s over. OPEC cannot play alone. This is why when OPEC met at the last moment they cannot decide it because if they will cut there is no meaning it will be the others who will benefit and even increase their production.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold Drops Most in Two Weeks as Volatility Reaches 11-Month High

Posted on 23 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold futures fell the most in more than two weeks as a slump in oil cut the appeal of the metal as an inflation hedge. Volatility in the metal rose to the highest since January.
The gauge of 60-day historical volatility reached 18.4, the highest since Jan. 10. Aggregate trading was 22 percent lower than the average in the past 100 days for this time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg………………………………………..Full Article: Source

10 Risks That Could Derail Markets in 2015

Posted on 23 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

2014 has been a good year for equities, with the BSE Sensex rising over 30 per cent. Hopes of robust growth and further reforms are likely to propel markets in 2015, analysts say. But the key thing to watch will be global liquidity, which is the most significant driver for Indian stocks.
Foreign investors pumped in over $40 billion in 2014, driving domestic markets higher, but the quantum of flows in 2015 will be determined by a number of global factors. HSBC has compiled 10 risks that could threaten the rally in equities in 2015………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity prices face plenty of ups and downs in 2014

Posted on 22 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

”A year of big ups and downs and very little in the way of sideways” is how the ASB New Zealand commodity price index has been described over 2014. In US dollar terms, the index had fallen 15.3% in annual terms, while the depreciating New Zealand dollar made slightly better reading in NZ-dollar terms, down 10%, rural economist Nathan Penny said.
Looking over history, the year compared favourably, with the year-index average around 8% higher than the 10-year average in NZ dollar terms and 20% higher in US dollar terms. However, the year-average masked the swing in the index’s fortunes over 2014. The index started the year about 14% higher than the 10-year average in NZ dollar terms but finished it a more modest 3% ahead………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Citigroup Said to Buy Credit Suisse Energy, Metals Trading Book

Posted on 22 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Citigroup Inc.bought the bulk of Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN)’s commodities business, continuing an expansion into a market as its biggest rivals retreat, according to two people briefed on the transaction.
The purchase includes positions in base and precious metals, iron ore, coal, crude oil and oil products, U.S. and European natural gas, and freight, said the people, who asked for anonymity because the deal hasn’t been made public. Employees won’t change firms as a result, said the people, who didn’t provide details about the terms of the transaction………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price fall not Opec’s fault, Gulf ministers say

Posted on 22 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil-rich Gulf states have vowed not to cut crude production, blaming speculators and producers outside the Opec group for tumbling prices. Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said “the spread of misleading information and speculation” had contributed to the 40% price fall.
Speaking in Abu Dhabi, he also dismissed claims of a Saudi plot to push prices down for political goals. Ministers from Kuwait and the UAE also said there were no plans to cut output. Mr Naimi said that if producer countries outside Opec wanted to restrict output, “they are welcome”………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil-Led Slump Spurring Fastest Investor Exit From Commodities Since 2008

Posted on 19 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors are exiting commodities at the fastest pace in six years, betting a slump in prices isn’t over as corn, oil and gold drop close to their cost of production. Open interest in raw-material futures and options is down 6.5 percent since June, heading for the biggest second-half slump since 2008, exchange data show.
U.S. exchange-traded products tracking metals, energy and agriculture saw net withdrawals of $169.4 million in 2014, marking the first two-year slump since the funds were created a decade ago………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Drown in Oil

Posted on 19 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investing in an index is usually a good way to hedge your bets. In commodities, though, it is hard to get around one thing: energy. The oil market is enormous: Even after the recent slump in prices—and Thursday’s rally fizzled quickly–the notional value of annual oil consumption is around $2 trillion.
That is reflected in the make-up of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, of which oil and refined products such as gasoline constitute 17.2%. Throw in natural gas and the overall energy component rises to 27.2%. In another popular index, the S&P GSCI, oil alone weighs in at 67.2%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Naimi: OPEC needs more support for output cutdown

Posted on 19 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabia’s powerful oil minister said on Thursday that OPEC could not cut output without the support of other big producers and attempts to get them on board had not worked.
Ali al-Naimi said it was impossible for OPEC to cut alone to reverse the oil price slump—which he called temporary—when others were pumping more, saying that could lead to losing market share and with no guarantee of supporting prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Opec: Iran blames falling oil price on ‘political plot’

Posted on 19 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Brent oil up in London as Iran’s oil minister turns up the pressure on Opec to act on falling prices. Iran’s oil minister has said that a “political conspiracy” is to blame for the dramatic slump in the price of crude in remarks that could signal that the Islamic Republic will try to exert pressure on the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) to again consider cutting output.
Bijan Zanganeh told the country’s state petroleum news agency: “The prolongation of the downward trend of the oil price in world markets is a political conspiracy going to extremes.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Will gold tarnish or shine in 2015?

Posted on 19 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Resurgence in gold demand from China and India, the world’s biggest consumers, is set to restore some shine to the yellow metal in 2015 after a lackluster year. “Physical gold demand in China and India were held back in 2014 amid high stocks and import controls, respectively,” said Victor Thianpiriya, commodity strategist at ANZ. “Both these shackles have been removed, putting demand on a solid footing as we head into 2015.”
In China, physical gold demand will return because stocks are depleting, said Thianpiriya, who sees the precious metal ending 2015 at $1,280 an ounce, up from $1,200 currently………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Supply the key commodity driver as demand takes a back seat: Russell

Posted on 18 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The big change in many commodity markets this past year was that demand is no longer king, with supply becoming the key driver, a dynamic that’s likely to persist in 2015. While this trend has been identified, it has not been well understood, with much market commentary still focused on the state of demand as the key determinant of commodity prices.
This has been especially the case with China, where concern over the slowing pace of economic growth has been used as an explanation for weaker commodity prices. The problem is that this analysis doesn’t stack up against commodity volumes being bought by China, the world’s largest consumer of natural resources…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Winners And Losers From The Oil Price Plunge

Posted on 18 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

World oil prices have plunged over the last six months with a surge in production and weaker than expected global demand. For several years, global oil prices were fairly stable, sitting at around $110 a barrel. But since June prices have almost halved to around $60 a barrel.
This is good news for countries which import oil, with motorists having to pay less to fill up their cars, but not for exporters, which have seen a significant drop in income…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Lead Touches Two-Year Low as Metals Fall Before Fed

Posted on 18 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Lead prices dropped to a 28-month low on concern that demand will ebb in China, the world’s largest consumer, while some industrial metals fell on concern that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to boosting interest rates.
Yesterday, a Chinese manufacturing gauge in December fell to a seven-month low, a report showed. The Fed ends a two-day meeting today. Sixty-eight percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said policy makers will drop a pledge to keep rates near zero percent for a “considerable time.” Nickel and tin prices dropped in London…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Fitch: Falling Commodities Prices Hit Australia’s Fiscal Outlook

Posted on 17 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Australia’s fiscal outlook has weakened due to lack of support for spending cuts in the Senate and a sharp decline in key commodities prices that eroded the country’s terms of trade in 2H14, says Fitch Ratings. Further deterioration in commodities prices or continued objections to spending cuts in the Senate would pose risks to the fiscal outlook.
But Australia is still well positioned relative to other ‘AAA’ rated sovereigns due to its low general government debt ratio and government commitment to fiscal consolidation. The Treasury’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), published on 15 December, identified two key factors behind the deterioration in the Australian fiscal position since the release of the 2014-2015 budget in May……………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC signals ‘wait and see’ approach could last a year

Posted on 17 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Core Gulf OPEC oil producers signaled this week they are prepared to wait as long as six months to a year to see the market stabilize, quashing hopes for any quick intervention to stop the price rout that took crude to under $60 per barrel.
Some OPEC watchers had identified $60 as a potential red line at which the group, which produces a third of global oil, was expected to send a signal to the market that the decline had been too fast and too steep……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold capped at $1238

Posted on 17 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After breaking through a bearish trendline at the beginning of last week, Gold benefited from some USD profit-taking and managed to climb its way back up the charts. However, the yellow metal found resistance at $1238 preventing entry to $1240 and current technicals indicate this could be a psychological ceiling in the current Gold market.
The $1238 level also represents a 50.0 fib level from the previous high ($1344) to the previous low ($1131) and the metal finding resistance at the 50.0 fib level twice last week does suggest the Fibonacci levels are in play. If this is the case, technical traders would likely be bearish below $1238 and looking at a potential entry opportunity if Gold manages to break through this resistance. …………………………………….Full Article: Source

When Rare Earths, Graphite, Lithium, and Uranium go to war they insure the peace and create the future

Posted on 17 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

We all know that individual, as well as institutional investors have only one goal, which is to make a return on their investment (a profit). This is not the purpose of government nor should it be.
However it should be the goal of government to spend money wisely and, if that is so, then to spend some of the money it receives from its taxpayers on the research and development of technologies that have applications not only to the military (providing the security function of government) but also to the civilian economy for maintaining and improving public health and the general quality of life of that government’s citizens…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Chinese rare earth giant born

Posted on 17 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China’s leading rare earth producer – Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth (Group) Hi-Tech Co. to give its full name – is set to further tighten its grip on the industry. Baotou’s giant mine in Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia near Baotou City, produces the bulk of the world’s rare earths and does so as a byproduct of iron ore mining.
SMM reports Baotou will merge with five smaller rare earth firms to establish the China North Rare Earth Group Co. Baotou will acquire shareholdings in Baotou Feida Rare Earth Co., Baotou Jinmeng Rare Earth Co., Baotou Hongtianyu Rare Earth Magnets Co., Wuyuan Runze Rare Earth Co., and Xinyuan Rare Earth Hi-Tech & New Material Co……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Brent Seen Falling to $50 in 2015 as OPEC Fails to Act

Posted on 16 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil prices are poised to fall below half where they were six months ago, before producers begin dealing with a global glut. Brent, the global benchmark, will slide to as low as $50 a barrel in 2015, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey yesterday of 17 analysts, down from the $115.71 a barrel high for the year on June 19.
The grade has already collapsed 47 percent since then and needs to fall further before producers clear the current glut, said five out of six respondents who gave a reason………………………………………Full Article: Source

A Bull Market in Bear Market Gold Demand

Posted on 16 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A glance at any gold price chart reveals the severity of the bear mauling it has endured over the last three years, writes Jeff Clark at Casey Research’s Big Gold letter. More alarming, even for die-hard gold investors, is that some of the fundamental drivers that would normally push gold higher, like a weak US Dollar, have reversed.
Throw in a correction-defying Wall Street stock market and the never-ending rain of disdain for gold from the mainstream and it may seem that there’s no reason to buy gold; the bear is here to stay. If so, then I have a question. Actually, a whole bunch of questions. To start, if we’re in a bear market, then…Why Is China Accumulating Record Amounts of Gold?……………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rabobank issues 2015 commodity market outlook

Posted on 15 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Agriculture financing giant Rabobank has published its outlook pertaining to global commodity markets in 2015, looking at issues of demand, supply and pricing across international commodities and forecasting a 12-month price outlook for 12 major commodities.
In the report, the bank’s Agri Commodities Markets Research analysts say fundamentals in the agri commodity markets appear more balanced through 2015, but they expect narrower trading ranges for many commodities versus 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Avoiding Commodities when Investing for Retirement

Posted on 15 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

There are several reasons for restricting your commodities-based investing to your trading account and keeping it out of your retirement account.
As investors try to diversify the investments in their retirement account, the choice is often made to select a commodities-based ETF, or a commodities-based stock, such as a gold mining company. While some investment advisors suggest including small portion of commodities investments in one’s retirement account, they are recommended as a hedge………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity Prices in 2014: What’s Behind the Plunge? Hint: It’s Not Just Oil

Posted on 15 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Stock market investors have enjoyed a huge bull market ever since the end of the financial crisis, and it appears that stocks will once again post a winning year when 2014 comes to a close in a few weeks. For the commodities markets, however, it’s been a much different story, with commodity prices in 2014 on track to suffer their worst loss since 2008.
As much attention as crude oil has gotten lately, it’s far from the only commodity weighing on the overall market for physical goods. Let’s take a closer look at exactly what’s been driving the declines in commodity prices in 2014 and whether they’re likely to continue falling next year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Price of Gold in 2014: Why It’s Gone Nowhere

Posted on 15 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

From 2001 to 2012, gold enjoyed 12 straight years of consecutive rising prices, and many investors hoped that the yellow metal would be able to sustain its bull market well into the future. Yet 2013’s $475 per ounce plunge in gold prices dashed those hopes, and this year’s failure for gold to regain any of that lost ground suggests that investors could have to wait a long time before prices start moving upward again.
Looking at how the price of gold in 2014 moved shows the crosscurrents that plagued investors throughout the year, as bouts of optimism gave way to the harsh realities of the mining industry and the supply and demand picture for gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is the commodity crash,volatility in equities a danger sign for global economy?

Posted on 12 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Energy prices have crashed to the lowest level in five years, so are metals and agri-commodities while volatility in equities have increased raising concerns about global economic growth. In a linear way, it is always easy to say that lower commodity prices signal the strengthening of recessionary trends or absence or recovery signals in the economy.
If that were so, every region should have the same economic growth but in reality Eurozone remains weak while US is on the edge of recovery with markets eagerly awaiting the likelihood of an interest rate hike. Asian giants China and India may have slowed down a bit but still not out of the reckoning.The market is awaiting the European Central Bank (ECB) monthly report in a short while from now………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is Fracking the Cause of Slumping Commodities?

Posted on 12 December 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What is fracking? Fracking is the process of injecting liquid at high pressure into subterranean rocks, fissures, etc., in order to force them open and allow more oil and gas to flow out of the formation, allowing it to be extracted at greater volumes.
Are you aware that fracking stocks are down 40% in just over 5 months? If that doesn’t sound like a bubble about to burst, I don’t know what does………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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