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What is driving fear out of nat gas market?

Posted on 27 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Rising U.S. shale gas production is driving fear out of the futures market, says Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and will constrain prices for the next two decades. Gone will be the near tripling of costs to $15.78 as in 2005 as traders remain confident the fuel will be there when needed.
Natural gas will trade “largely” at $4 to $5 per million British thermal units for the next 20 years, says Goldman Sachs. Societe Generale SA sees prices at $5 through 2019. Bank of America Corp. forecasts $5.50 for 2017, while BlackRock Inc. projects $4 to $5 for the next decade………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China’s small commodity traders at risk if banks tighten financing

Posted on 26 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A warehouse fraud at China’s third-largest port has forced banks and trading houses to consider new controls in the country’s massive commodity financing business, which traders say could lead to drying up of credit for all but large firms and state-owned companies.
China’s commodities trading is dominated by the large and state-owned companies but there are thousands of small firms in the market. Faced with tougher bank requirements for financing, they could sell down stockpiles, squeezing demand for metals and other raw materials such as rubber in the world’s biggest consumer of commodities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil markets poised for record as Iraq crisis deepens

Posted on 26 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil markets have staged only a muted reaction to the bloody insurgency gripping OPEC’s number two producer Iraq, but analysts warn any disruption to supplies could push prices to record peaks. The offensive led by extremists that has swept through the north of the country and is now threatening to rip Iraq apart has sent prices to nine-month highs but they remain $30 below the peaks hit in 2008.
“This contrasts with the period of civil war in Libya in early 2011 that halted production. Back then, oil prices, volatility and skew all reacted far more aggressively,” said BNP Paribas analysts Harry Tchilinguirian and Gareth Lewis-Davies………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World saved $3.5 trillion from emergency oil stocks: IEA

Posted on 26 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The world has saved $3.5 trillion over the last 30 years by maintaining emergency oil stocks to offset supply shocks and curb price surges, the West’s energy watchdog said on Wednesday. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that emergency oil stocks held by member and non-member states have acted as an ” insurance” against oil supply disruptions.
Spiralling violence in key oil producer Iraq in recent weeks has pushed global oil prices to nine-month highs, reviving speculation of a release of strategic stocks in case of severe supply disruptions………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China, Singapore vie for Asia gold pricing alternative to London

Posted on 26 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China and Singapore are vying to provide feasible gold price benchmarks in Asia, as calls grow in the top consuming region for more localized pricing of the precious metal at a time when the global benchmark is under regulatory scrutiny.
Singapore said at an industry conference on Wednesday it would launch a physical gold contract on an exchange to create a transparent form of pricing. China, at the same conference, said it wanted to have a bigger influence on the global gold market and would like to have its own price ‘fix’………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rising solar demand to drive silver’s revival

Posted on 26 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

According to research released Tuesday by UBS, the silver demand for solar sector has started showing early signs of recovery. The trend is likely to continue in the future. The rising demand from the solar sector will drive silver’s growth over the next five years, noted Edel Tully, a strategist for the leading Swiss financial services company.
UBS forecasts the global solar demand to double over the next five year period. The solar demand is expected to grow by 22% during this year to 45 GW of new installed solar capacity. The solar demand is expected to grow to 84 GW of new installed capacity by 2018………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Decline In Oil Echoed In Other Commodities

Posted on 25 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil was the major loser overnight on speculation that Iraqi oil production won’t be disrupted by escalating violence in the country. Although the Iraqi army yesterday ceded control of the Baiji refinery in the north, they also recaptured some territory along the border with Jordan and Syria, according to Iraqi state TV.
Moreover, the fighting has remained concentrated in the north and center of the country, while the oil industry is concentrated in the south, so there has not been that much disruption to oil exports. The movement in the markets is largely a risk premium that rises and falls with the insurgents’ progress. The change in Brent futures over the last month suggests that the market is most concerned about what will happen this year and not as concerned about the longer-term future of oil prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

CPM predicts largest-ever platinum market deficit in 2014

Posted on 25 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Regardless of Monday’s announced end of the South African platinum strike, New York-based commodities research firm, CPM Group, forecasts that the platinum market is expected to record the largest deficit ever this year, as the shortfall of total supply of newly-refined platinum relative to fabrication demand is estimated at 818,823 ounces this year.
In the CPM Group Platinum Group Metals Yearbook 2014 made public Tuesday morning, CPM estimated that total refined platinum supply rose 2.6% to 7.2 million ounces last year. Most of the supply increase was from higher mine supplies, which rose 4.8%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Collateral Damage in China’s Commodity Pileup

Posted on 24 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The mysterious case of missing metals at a Chinese port is a headache for the global banks involved. It is also an omen of more widespread risks in the country’s financial system.
Several foreign banks including Citigroup Inc. and Standard Chartered PLC are investigating whether the same stocks of copper and aluminum, stored by a trading company at a Qingdao port, were pledged to all of them as collateral for loans. Deepening the intrigue, a major state-owned enterprise, Citic Resources Holdings Ltd. , says some metals that it has stored at the Qingdao port can’t be located………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Last Days For OPEC’s Quota System

Posted on 24 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Taking OPEC Secretariat official figures as recent as April­May 2014, before the June 11th OPEC meeting in Vienna, the Secretariat was able to state that “OPEC member states [conforming to the quota system] collectively produced slightly less than the 30 million barrels/day Crude ceiling volume”.
In other words the quota could be rolled over yet again, markets would not be oversupplied, and prices would stay “comfortably” firm and high. However, this statement from OPEC admitted that “unscheduled outages and production losses” in the 12 member states supposedly complying with the 30 Mbd maximum output target, in May, were running at about 2.5 to 2.6 Mbd………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iraq crisis puts oil markets on alert

Posted on 24 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Increasing violence in Iraq, Opec’s second-largest oil producer, has spooked many markets, including oil. It has also elicited loud punditry about an emerging oil crisis, a need for the US to release strategic petroleum reserves and significantly higher prices throwing a monkey wrench into plans for global economic growth. But what are markets actually saying?
So far, the oil market’s reaction has been fairly benign. At most, there is a $5 premium in spot prices and perhaps a risk premium half that size in forward prices. Spot prices of Brent crude oil jumped 4.5 per cent (about $5 per barrel) on the fall of Mosul and the spreading territorial control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (known as Isis) over central Iraq………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Euphoria Won’t Last With Yellen’s Rally Fading

Posted on 24 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After the biggest gold slump in three decades left investors heartbroken, they’re following Taylor Swift’s advice and never, ever getting back together. Janet Yellen, the one person able to make the lovers reconcile, did her best. Prices surged the most since September the day after the Fed chair signaled last week that low interest rates are here to stay.
Traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News aren’t expecting the euphoria to last. Volatility in futures is near a four-year low, at a time when trading volumes and open interest in Comex contracts are waning………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities: Europe will suffer if we hinder the flow of energy price information

Posted on 23 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Energy security is once again high on the political agenda. The recent events in Iraq and Eastern Europe force us to think about how we obtain the commodities that light our homes, keep us warm and fuel our transport.
European energy policy is struggling to reconcile conflicting objectives — cheaper energy, more infrastructure investment, lower carbon emissions. Into that tangle, we can add the prediction of the International Energy Agency that the European Union’s dependency on energy imports will increase from 60pc to 80pc by 2035………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Forecast Update: Nearing A Crossroads‏?

Posted on 23 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The second half of the year could prove quite interesting for commodities markets. Disruptions have plagued the market at times over the first six months of 2014, most notably dry weather in Brazil and the US, the Indonesian export ban and the recent insurgence in Iraq. The big question that is waiting to be answered in coming months is whether these events have been a taste of what lies ahead or whether commodities markets will return to a stable trajectory.
The focal point in the energy market over the coming six months will be negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme. A permanent deal that credibly constrains the country’s nuclear ambitions in return for a lifting of sanctions on Iran could prove a major turning point for the oil market. In the midst of this, the insurgence in Iraq and Syria is a cause for concern………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil and Iraq: Burning at both ends

Posted on 23 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

War in Iraq has lifted the oil price a little. Its long-term impact will be bigger. Before Islamist fighters seized much of northern Iraq, hopes that the recent era of stable oil prices would last rested heavily on the country. Its exports were expected to go on rising, providing lots of low-cost oil at a time when the depletion of mature fields elsewhere is beginning to bite into supplies.
The International Energy Agency has projected that Iraq’s production will jump from 2.5m barrels a day (b/d) now to 4.4m in 2015 and nearly 6m by 2020. Other forecasts have been even rosier. But as on so many occasions since 1980, war, sanctions and domestic upheaval have constrained the huge potential of OPEC’s second-biggest producer. The chances of restarting exports from northern Iraq (via a pipeline crippled by sabotage in March), and of investment and modernisation in the country’s south, are looking slimmer by the day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bullish Oil Wagers Reach Record as Fighting Engulfs Iraq

Posted on 23 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Hedge funds increased bets on rising crude prices to a record as fighting in Iraq threatened to disrupt supply from OPEC’s second-biggest member. Speculators raised their net-long position in benchmark West Texas Intermediate by 4.3 percent in the week ended June 17, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
Futures reached a nine-month high on June 13 after fighters from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, or ISIL, seized the northern city of Mosul and advanced toward Baghdad………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will OPEC’s Geo-Political Crackup Put Russo/Iranian Alliance into Global Oil Driver’s Seat?

Posted on 23 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The lightning-fast econo/political changes impacting the world’s oil alliances have critically undermined the solidarity of OPEC, while strengthening the new Russo/Chinese/Iranian block against the U.S./Canada/Mexico (NAFTA Alliance) and a weakening Saudi Arabia.
While the Saudis and Russia still represent the world’s only potential exporters of near 10 million barrels of oil per day, most OPEC members are in varying stages of disarray, preventing their adequate supply of the world’s oil needs. In fact, the runnerup OPEC suppliers, counted on to deliver one-third of the world’s energy requirements are on the verge of internal collapse………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Speculators Sharply Add Overall Bullish Bets

Posted on 23 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Futures market speculators added to their overall bullish bets in the gold futures market last week for the second straight week as the weekly increase was the most since March, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of +78,295 contracts in the data reported through June 17th. This was a weekly change of +17,168 contracts from the previous week’s total of +61,127 net contracts that was registered on June 10th………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Climb to Highest Since August as Oil Rallies on Iraq

Posted on 20 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities rose to a nine-month high as crude advanced after a government report showed U.S. inventories shrank and amid concern that violence in Iraq will disrupt supplies from OPEC’s second-largest producer.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index (SPGSCI) of 24 raw materials increased as much as 0.3 percent to 665.5475, the highest level since Aug. 29. The gauge added 2.4 percent this month and was at 665.3918 by 12:44 p.m. Singapore time today. West Texas Intermediate oil climbed as much as 0.5 percent in New York………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India’s Role In The Gold Market

Posted on 20 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

India is now, according to The World Gold Council (WGC), the world’s second biggest consumer of gold, having been surpassed by China. However, India remains a major player in the gold market. In this article, I will look at the importance of India in the gold market.
In India, gold is religion. India’s love affair with gold is timeless, spanning centuries, even millennia. Roman historian, Pliny, lamented some 1800 years ago how India, the sink of precious metals, was draining Rome of gold, an appellation that resonates even today. Indians see the metal as a symbol of purity, prosperity and good fortune………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Regulator Investigates Controls at Deutsche Bank Commodities Unit

Posted on 20 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Germany’s top financial regulator recently investigated internal controls at Deutsche Bank AG’s commodities unit, according to a person familiar with the probe. The regulator, BaFin, sent a letter to the bank outlining its findings in April, this person said. It’s not known whether the regulator found deficiencies in the bank’s processes or instructed the bank to make any changes. It is also not known what prompted the investigation.
Deutsche Bank AG said in December that it would exit most of its commodities trading business. Changes to bank regulations have made it tougher for banks to generate profits from commodities trading………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC May Bring Forward Next Meeting if Iraq Crisis Disrupts Exports

Posted on 19 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could meet ahead of schedule if the continuing crisis in Iraq disrupts the country’s exports of crude oil, officials from Gulf states that are members of the cartel said Wednesday.
At the end of its latest meeting last week, OPEC said it would keep its production ceiling for 2014 at 30 million barrels of oil a day and would next meet on Nov. 27. But that plan could change if the oil supply from Iraq is disrupted. Iraqi oil exports currently run at around 2.5 million barrels of oil a day…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Volatility Slumps to Lowest Since 2010 Before Fed

Posted on 19 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold volatility slumped to a 44-month low before the Federal Reserve concludes a two-day policy meeting. The 60-day historical volatility dropped to 11.4, the lowest since Oct. 18, 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Gold futures traded in a range of $45 an ounce this month, compared with $74 in May.
The value of exchange-traded funds backed by gold has contracted by $2.57 billion this quarter, and open interest in Comex futures fell to a five-year low in April. The precious metal’s appeal as an alternative investment faded as U.S. equities surged to a record and the Fed cut monetary stimulus…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why is the World of Gold and Silver Changing

Posted on 19 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Since spot gold and silver are traded 24 hours a day, the daily fix provides a snapshot of prices that industry participants can use to price central-bank assets, the value of exchange-traded funds tied to bullion and physical gold and silver deals.
Now, the prices of silver and gold are set daily in London by way of conference calls among banks—four for gold and three for silver. During the calls, the banks exchange bids and offers for the specific metal on behalf of themselves and their clients, and the price is declared ‘fixed’ when supply and demand is equal at a certain price…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Reflect Global Tensions

Posted on 18 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In any escalation of political tension Oil and Gold are the two key commodities to watch. For oil, the breakout and surge higher was largely driven by events in Iraq coupled with supply issues at Cushing, both of which combined to help power the WTI contract up to the $107 per barrel price point as evidenced by last Thursday’s wide spread up candle.
This move higher was associated with high volume, thereby validating and confirming this bullish picture. Both Friday’s and Monday’s price action was identical, in that both trading sessions closed with small shooting star candles on above average volume, suggesting that like equities, markets are pausing and waiting for further news and developments………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Which commodity managers have fared best in the slump?

Posted on 18 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The combination of fundamental underlying demand, low valuations, relatively high yields and a renewed management focus on shareholder returns is poised to send commodity stocks surging.
That claim could have been made at just about any point over the past two years, as indeed it has been repeatedly. But if the sector is primed for a bull run, investors may as well own anything – active or passive. If not, though, the prolonged bear phase has revealed those managers who have been able not only to protect but actually to add value during the slump………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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OPEC Dominance to Wane as US Leads ‘Tight Oil’ Revolution

Posted on 18 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The balance of power in the global oil industry will shift over the next five years, as North America becomes more prominent, with OPEC’s influence set to wane. The International Energy Agency’s five-year oil market outlook predicts that North America’s net exports will “surge” by the end of the decade, driven by the “unconventional oil revolution”.
The IEA predicts this trend to spread beyond North America, with oil extracted from oil sands and shale rock (’tight oil’) to come online in Russia and Argentina, as well as Kazakhstan and Mexico………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Crude Oil still engulfed by bearishness for short term

Posted on 18 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent rally in crude oil due to geopolitical tensions may not have caused a bull run as technical indictors point to bearishness in the market, according to Nadia Simmons, Forex and Oil Trading strategist at Sunshine Profits.
Simmons said that although crude oil rose to a nine month high, the overall situation hasn’t changed as it is still below strong resistance zone created by the long term declining line and two important Fibonacci retracement levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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HSBC: Platinum Group Metals Recover From Early Declines

Posted on 18 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Platinum group metals recovered from early weakness to finish modestly higher. “Prices may have (initially) eased in continued reaction to a reaffirmation that South Africa’s three main platinum producers and the AMCU (Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union) have agreed on a broad wage offer to end the long-running strike,” says HSBC.
“PGMs made a comeback on scattered buying as the Impala spokesman said details such as the timeframe and additional benefits are still outstanding, but that the ‘big picture’ on wages had been agreed.” The bank cites a Reuters report saying the union will call a mass meeting this week to decide on the latest company offers. “But this may be a formality as last week thousands of workers and AMCU shop stewards……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Iraq not hurting oil output: OPEC

Posted on 17 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The unrest in Iraq isn’t affecting oil markets or the country’s oil output, the secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Monday. Abdalla Salem el-Badri said: “Nothing is affected. production is still going well and exporting is going fine.”
He said he doesn’t expect the recent wave of unrest in the country to affect the balance of the supply and demand of the oil market. The US and Iran have publicly committed in recent days to provide military support if requested to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and help his government repel an offensive the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham has launched against Baghdad and other Iraqi cities over the past week………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper Advances on Bets Demand Will Climb in China, U.S.

Posted on 17 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Copper futures rose for the second straight session on signs that demand will pick up as economies gain in China, the world’s top consumer of industrial metals, and the U.S., the second-biggest.
China’s central bank extended a cut in reserve requirements to some national lenders as officials try to support the economy without broader stimulus. In the U.S., industrial output increased more than forecast in May, while the Federal Reserve of New York’s Empire manufacturing report unexpectedly climbed this month as orders jumped………………………………………..Full Article: Source

We Are So Not Prepared For Another Crude Oil Price Shock

Posted on 16 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In one sense, energy doesn’t matter all that much to what’s coming. Once debt reaches a certain level, oil can be $10 a barrel or $200, and either way we’re in trouble.
But the cost of energy can still play a role in the timing and shape of the next financial crisis. The housing/derivatives bubble of 2006 -2008, for instance, might have gone on a while longer if oil hadn’t spiked to $140/bbl in 2007. And the subsequent recovery was probably expedited by oil plunging to $40 in 2008………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Prices Push Higher As Geopolitical Unrest Supports Safe-Haven Assets

Posted on 16 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices are starting the week on a strong footing as renewed geopolitical risks create modest demand for safe-haven assets, said analysts. To start the week, electronic trading of Comex August gold futures opened the Sunday North American evening/Monday Asian session at $1,276.80 an ounce, up from Friday’s pit close of $1,274.10 an ounce.
Since the open, the rally in gold prices has been fairly consistent; as of 8:53 p.m. EDT, August gold was trading at $1,279.30 an ounce, up $5.20 or 0.41% on the day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC sees oil market balanced for rest of 2014

Posted on 13 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil markets should be balanced during the second half of this year with extra production sufficient to meet growing demand, OPEC said on Thursday, suggesting oil prices may be fairly stable despite worries over lost supply.
Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday with Brent crude climbing above $112 for the first time since March on worries that violence in Iraq could disrupt supplies. But the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies a third of the world’s oil, said rising oil production should be more than sufficient to meet demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Platinum, palladium sink as S. African strike nears end

Posted on 13 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Palladium posted its biggest daily losses in almost a year on Thursday after South African producers struck a deal with the union to end a crippling five-month strike, and violent conflict in Iraq burnished gold’s safe haven status.
Taking a step closer to resuming operations after the longest strike in the 130-year history of South Africa’s mines, Amplats, Implats and Lonmin reached an agreement in principle with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) about wages………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Market ‘Frozen’ In Place, Traders Awaiting Fresh Catalysts

Posted on 13 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent range-bound state of the gold market reminds Phil Flynn of a scene from the movie “Frozen,” where a princess inadvertently uses her magical powers to cast a spell and unleash an eternal winter on the kingdom.
“That’s what I feel like the gold market is,” said Flynn, a senior market analyst with Price Futures Group. “We’ve been frozen.” Frozen in place, that is. The most-active Comex August contract meandered between roughly $1,268 and $1,330 an ounce for roughly two months before breaking through the bottom of that band on May 27………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Threadneedle Italy sees value in commodities

Posted on 13 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Alessandro Aspesi has worked for Threadneedle Investments since 2007 and has spearheaded the opening of the Italian office in 2008. Six years on, he looks at the broad picture to give an outlook of the Italian market and of Threadneedle business in the country.
As of 31 March 2014, the London-based fund manufacturer had £89.7bn AUM globally distributed across retail and institutional clients. In Italy, the business is almost equally divided between retail clients (40%) and institutional clients and discretionary portfolio management (60%)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Supply tremors shake OPEC equilibrium

Posted on 12 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC sailed through a brief, calm meeting on Wednesday - even as oil prices rose to $110 on barrel on concern renewed strife could hit Iraq’s output and deepen a supply shortfall from chaotic Libya and sanctions-bound Iran.
Oil ministers painted a soothing image of good supply, and prices beneficial to all, although some among them struggled to eke out exports………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC Keeps Output Level Below Second-Half Demand Forecast

Posted on 12 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s crude, kept its production target unchanged in a widely anticipated move that left the group’s output below forecast demand for the rest of the year.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reaffirmed yesterday its production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day for a fifth consecutive meeting. The group forecasts demand for its crude of 30.4 million barrels a day in the coming six months, while its 12 members produced 29.6 million barrels a day in April, the organization’s data show………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Prospect of Iran’s return poses problem for Opec

Posted on 12 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the days before an Opec meeting the financial press pack descends on Vienna. The media fan out across the city hoping to catch a comment from an oil minister as they arrive in the Austrian capital and then shuttle between briefings.
This week’s meeting – the 165th in Opec’s 54-year history – is no different. As usual, the reporters are camped out in the foyers of the luxurious hotels favoured by the cartel’s 12 member countries, ready to jump on officials and their entourage………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rising markets eating into demand for gold in India

Posted on 12 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Even though gold has gradually lost appeal among global investors since 2013 — amid a compounding consensus view that a decade-long bull run in the yellow metal may be over — a weaker rupee and restrictive import policies have ensured that, in India, the impact hasn’t been so extreme.
Even as the average global spot price corrected by a third to $1202 an ounce in 2013, domestic spot prices moderated by just about 1% to Rs 29,158 per 10 gm, thanks to a declining average value of the rupee from Rs 53.5 in 2012 to R58.6 against the dollar………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Deutsche Bank Sees Industrial Metals Outperforming Precious Metals, Energy

Posted on 12 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Deutsche Bank looks for industrial metals to outperform precious metals and energy. “We view the macro environment as remaining hostile to the (precious) sector and specifically gold given our belief that the S&P 500 will hit fresh highs, U.S. long-term real yields are set to move higher and the possibility that divergent monetary policies between the Fed and the ECB (European Central Bank) trigger a more meaningful turn in the U.S. dollar during the second half of the year,” Deutsche Bank says.
“Industrial metals have been the best-performing sector on a total returns basis during the second quarter. A snapback in U.S. GDP growth as well as the Fed preparing the groundwork for a turn in U.S. monetary policy should be supportive for industrial metal prices over the coming year. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

China Commodity Financing Seen Declining by Goldman Sachs

Posted on 11 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Foreign banks are projected by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to lend less money against commodity inventories in China amid a probe into metals stockpiles in the biggest consumer of raw materials.
Claims that single batches of copper and aluminum at Qingdao Port were pledged as collateral for multiple loans risks undermining a broader practice in which traders use everything from iron ore to rubber to get funding. The investigation is already weighing down copper prices and may curb foreign exchange inflows to China, according to a report by Goldman………………………………………..Full Article: Source

StanChart says not pulling out of China commodities financing

Posted on 11 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Standard Chartered said on Tuesday it acknowledges there are issues in China around commodity financing and while it is monitoring the situation, it is not pulling out of its commodity financing business in the country.
Arun Murthy, global head of comomodities at Standard Chartered, also said in an email response to Reuters that commodity financing remained a key focus for the bank………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Nigeria vies for control of Opec as cartel ponders oil output

Posted on 11 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Ministers from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries reportedly divided over new Nigerian leadership pitch. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) - a group of 12 nations who control over a third of the world’s crude - meets on Wednesday in Vienna as political turmoil in Iraq and Libya pushes prices higher and opens up divisions within the cartel.
The price of North Sea Brent crude nudged up above $110 (£65) per barrel in the run up to the gathering of oil ministers, offering little hope to British motorists that fuel prices in the UK will be falling at anytime in the near future………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC seen sticking by oil output

Posted on 10 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC is set to stick by its oil output ceiling when it meets this week, as supply tensions linked to global crises help to keep crude prices high, benefitting producers. The Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose dozen member nations together supply about one third of the world’s crude, is widely predicted by experts to keep its daily output ceiling at 30 million barrels of oil.
While OPEC is satisfied with current price levels at around $100 a barrel, the cartel is in fact pumping below its collective target owing to abundant supplies in top crude consumer the US………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC Struggles to Cope With Libyan Oil Shortfall

Posted on 10 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Six months ago, one of OPEC’s concerns was whether a U.S. shale boom might upend crude markets by providing too much oil. Today, the group of some of the world’s largest producers has a more short-term worry: How to compensate for lost Libyan crude at a time of rising demand and tensions between Russia and the West.
“That’s the big question: Who will fill the gap left by Libya?” said one delegate within the group, which meets in Vienna later this week to discuss its output. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—which produces one out of every three barrels of oil consumed daily in the world—are facing calls by some to boost output to help plug the gap left by fellow member Libya………………………………………..Full Article: Source

North American Shale Oil Boom Key Challenge At OPEC Meeting

Posted on 10 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With the North American crude oil production boom likely to be a major topic of discussion for OPEC ministers when they meet this week in Vienna, the cartel is not expected to raise production, especially because prices remain generally stable.
If prices rise from the current $100 to $110 a barrel, falling demand would be a concern. On the other hand, falling prices would approach OPEC members’ marginal cost of production. The crude oil production oil cartel, which controls about 40 percent of global oil supplies, has imposed a 30 million barrel-per-day production ceiling for all 12 members’ output for the last two years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Libya arrives for OPEC with exports at a trickle

Posted on 10 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Libya’s attendance at Wednesday’s OPEC meeting will be an oddity for historians of the oil exporters club - a member with virtually no oil for sale. As it struggles with its worst crisis since the 2011 war that toppled Muammar Gaddafi, early talk of a swift resumption of output have given way to pessimism, leaving OPEC with a longer lasting hole of over one million barrels per day in its supply.
Production is below 200,000 barrels per day, Oil Minister Omar Shakmak said on arrival in Vienna on Monday for the meeting, a fraction of the 1.6 million bpd Libya pumped before the 2011 conflict………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World needs Saudi Arabia to supply record oil as OPEC meets

Posted on 10 June 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC ministers say they will almost certainly leave their oil-production ceiling unchanged when the group meets this week. What really matters for markets is whether Saudi Arabia will respond to global supply shortfalls by pumping a record amount of crude.
Just six months ago, energy analysts predicted output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would climb too high and Saudi Arabia needed to cut to make room for other suppliers. They changed their minds after production from Libya, Iran and Iraq failed to rebound as anticipated, and industrialized nations’ stockpiles fell to the lowest for the time of year since 2008. Saudi Arabia may need to pump a record 11 million barrels a day by December to cover the other member nations, says Energy Aspects, a consultant………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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