Wed, May 4, 2016
A A A
Welcome preal121
RSS

Commodities Briefing - Category | Investment more

Africa should invest in agriculture

Posted on 03 November 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

About 65 per cent of the African population lives in rural areas and relies on agriculture as the prime source of income; this is according to John Magnay, head of agriculture finance at Opportunities International.
Opportunity International is a non-governmental organisation working to end global poverty by creating/sustaining 20 million jobs by 2020. The head of agriculture finance called for improved investment in the sector as a step towards ending poverty, creating household disposable incomes and jobs in the region………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Weary commodity investors see end of slump

Posted on 30 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After commodity prices tipped over in 1997, it took 21 months to arrest the fall. In 2000-01 it was 13 months. After collapsing along with the global economy in 2008, commodities hit the floor in just eight months. This time, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has been in decline for four years and counting. From its most recent peak in May 2011, the benchmark is off by half and scraping the lowest levels of the 21st century.
Worn-out investors are asking: have commodity prices finally bottomed? “It’s top of mind for anyone looking at the market,” says Norbert Ruecker, head of commodities research at Julius Baer in Zurich………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Commodities Are Bad Investments

Posted on 28 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Imagine an investment that has roughly the same moneymaking potential as stocks—but that tends to rise when stocks are falling and to fall when stocks are rising, and is a bit less volatile than stocks. In 2004, two Yale University professors published a groundbreaking paper that argued that commodity futures offered precisely that holy grail of investing.
Commodities, wrote Gary Gorton and Geert Rouwenhorst, achieved roughly the same returns as stocks from July 1959 through December 2004. But commodity prices tended to move in the opposite direction of stocks, were less volatile and were particularly profitable during periods of high inflation………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The IEA says oil and gas investment hasn’t been this bad in 20 years

Posted on 27 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The global energy industry is running on empty, with low prices sending investments plunging. In a speech at Singapore International Energy Week, Faith Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, said low energy prices had made oil companies extremely hesitant to spend money.
A presentation accompanying his remarks (pdf) shows the extent of this year’s drop in investment, which is expected to be a fifth lower than last year, and fall even further next year: “If it comes true, this will be the first time in two decades we will see oil investments declining for two consecutive years, and may be an indication for future oil markets,” he said, according to Reuters………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities offer diversification: Analyst

Posted on 23 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

While the commodities market is prone to ups and downs, one analyst says investing in this sector can pay off..”In reality, [the commodity sector] is a part of an investor’s asset allocation that can achieve diversification,” said Jeff Sherman, a portfolio manager at DoubleLine. Sherman told CNBC that agricultural stocks are attractive right now in this space.
“The reason for that is the pressure we’ve seen from the El Nino system and kind of forecasting a tougher winter — that tougher winter being from the standpoint of it’s going to be a lot warmer, according to all the weather forecasts,” Sherman said. “That puts pressure on the field and the fertility and ultimately it could have some disappointing crops in the next year.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Investors eschew gold’s safe-haven role, leaving price low for longer

Posted on 23 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Die-hard gold bugs looking for the market’s return to prominence are being confronted with a sobering truth; in the latter explosive phase of bullion’s 10-year bull run, the last thing on investors’ minds was safety - the watchword for its appeal.
Those buying gold as prices approached a record $1,920.30 (1,244.2 pounds) an ounce were not seeking protection or even diversification; they were looking to make a quick buck on what has become just another financial instrument. This means gold is exposed to the same factors as other instruments, such as equities, without the traditional support of being regarded as a safe haven from political and financial instability………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Africa’s commodities slump is a gold mine for investors

Posted on 22 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent downturn in Africa’s commodities markets might seem to signal dark times for the continent’s emerging economies. The slump in global oil prices prompted Angola’s government to end fuel subsidies; weak copper rates dramatically reduced the value of Zambia’s currency; and J.P. Morgan delisted the Nigerian naira from the Emerging Markets Bond Index.
But for long-term investors in Africa, these setbacks are blessings in disguise. They exposed the fault lines in sub-Saharan Africa’s growth narrative, but they also emphasized salient new opportunities at both the public and private investment levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC, non-OPEC discuss risk to oil investment, no output cuts

Posted on 22 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A meeting of oil experts from OPEC and non-member countries discussed the risk that low oil prices would reduce investment in new supplies but agreed no concrete steps on boosting the market, officials said after the talks on Wednesday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries invited eight non-member nations including Russia to the talks, ahead of OPEC’s policy-setting meeting at its Vienna headquarters on Dec. 4.
Venezuela’s Oil Minister Eulogio del Pino presented his country’s proposals for measures to bolster prices, such as an OPEC and non-OPEC summit and said the market equilibrium price for crude was around $88 a barrel. “At $40 a barrel, we are below the equilibrium price,” he told reporters, reiterating comments made by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Barclays: Use Bullish Options To Play Gold Rally

Posted on 21 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

More and more analysts are getting bulled up on gold prices. Maneesh Deshpande at Barclays on Tuesday recommended using options on two popular gold-linked exchange-traded funds to play the next leg higher for the yellow metal. Gold prices have risen about 7% since plunging to a multi-year bottom in early August. Gold futures ticked up about 0.5% to 1,178 an ounce on Tuesday.
Chinese demand for jewelry? Panic buying? Nope: the recent rally in gold has had much to do with expectations that the Federal Reserve doesn’t have the economic numbers it needs to justify an increase to interest rates. Gold is moving on the Fed. Indeed, The Wall Street Journal’s Alistair MacDonald and Tatyana Shumsky noted on Monday that the correlation between gold and interest-rate expectations is the tightest in years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

High yields on commodity trusts tempt investors

Posted on 21 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Data from the Association of Investment Companies (AIC) shows that BlackRock Commodities Income was among the most viewed investment companies in the third quarter on the AIC website. It moved up the rankings from 16th place in the second quarter to 2nd place, while the group’s World Mining trust also moved higher.
A Stifel report into the highest yielding investment trusts showed commodities-focused funds at the top of the heap. BlackRock World Mining tops the list of the highest yielders with an 8.8% yield. However, the group warned that yields may not be sustainable given the issues in the mining sector………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold’s role as safe-haven investment wanes

Posted on 20 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The price of gold, which typically swings with political, economic and inflationary threats, these days moves in step with a different force: the US Federal Reserve. Traders and analysts say the metal’s role as a safe-haven investment in times of turmoil has waned recently, with the price more likely to fluctuate on shifting expectations about when the Fed will raise rates.
Gold has rallied 5.3 per cent this month after a sour September jobs report in the US encouraged investors to bet there will be no hike this year. Higher rates, when they happen, are widely expected to undermine future demand for gold, which doesn’t pay interest so becomes less competitive against investments that do. Prices slumped to five-year lows in July when expectations for rate increase ran high………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Stocks: The Ultimate Investor’s Guide to Gold

Posted on 19 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Mankind’s fascination with gold is believed to have started more than 6,000 years ago when a culture centered in what is now Eastern Europe began to use it to fashion decorative objects. Since then, it has also been used as currency and is seen as a sign of affluence. Given its historical connections to wealth, gold continues to be an object that people desire to both grow and protect their riches.
What has changed over the years, however, is the fact that physical gold, whether it’s in the form of bullion, bars, coins, or jewelry, is no longer the only option for those seeking the profits and protection of gold. In addition to those physical options, we now have gold stocks, which come in their own variety of options, including a range of gold ETFs, mining companies, and mutual funds………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Puzzled investors halt bullion rally

Posted on 19 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Last week, data releases in the US painted a mixed picture of the economy, making investors run hither and thither. Gold made a spectacular rally in the first four trading sessions of the week, touching a high of $1,191/ounce on Thursday, but later lost steam to close the week at $1,177/ounce, up only 1.8 per cent.
The Federal Reserve is closely tracking inflation and labour market data, but these data points are lately not leading to a cohesive picture on the economy. So, bullion investors have continued to obsess over the billion-dollar question on whether the Fed hikes its rate before the end of this year. The central bank’s next meeting is during October 27-28………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Mining industry ‘needs’ $205b in investment

Posted on 19 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The mining industry needs to invest $US150 billion ($A205 billion) to meet expected demand or face shortages, according to analysts Wood Mackenzie. But before that happens Wood Mackenzie tips even more mine closures and cutbacks. It says about 500,000 tonnes of copper has to be cut from the market and more than half the global nickel production is at a loss.
It comes with Queensland’s economy taking a heavy hit from the slowdown in the state’s mining industry. Deloitte Access Economics, in a report out today, pointed out the slump in commodity prices and related profits meant “the chance of new mining and energy construction projects getting the go-ahead any time soon continues to fall”………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Now’s the time to invest in commodities and emerging markets, says Morgan Stanley

Posted on 15 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Morgan Stanley has turned contrarian investor on emerging markets, saying now is the time to buy emerging market and commodity-exposed stocks and currencies while anticipating a sharemarket bounce to finish the year.
The US-based investment bank’s global strategy team doesn’t share market concerns that emerging markets, led chiefly by China, would send the developed world spiralling into a recession. “We believe [global economic] expansion is still in tact, with strong consumer trends in developed markets helping to offset the drag of [emerging markets] growth,” Morgan Stanley said in its updated Autumn Outlook paper………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why There’s No Better Time to Buy Commodities

Posted on 14 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities haven’t just had a rough year. It’s been more like a rough half-decade, in which prices of raw materials and foodstuffs were halved. Once a mainstay ingredient in the investing soup, this asset class is now being shunned, and some people are making ever more bearish price forecasts. So is it time to jump back in and gain the well-documented investing benefits of adding metals, grains and energy into your investment pot?
Maybe so, and there are good reasons to consider it (plus some pitfalls to avoid). First, there is the broad reason to own commodities, which is to reduce risk. Because the prices of commodities tend to be uncorrelated with the prices of other assets such as stocks and bonds, the overall volatility of a portfolio tends to be lower. And because most investors define risk as volatility, when it is lower there is less risk………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities: Time To Buy?

Posted on 14 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

“Commodities: Time To Buy.” That was the cover story of the August 7 edition of Barron’s, which went on, “The harsh selloff in energy, gold and other commodities is starting to look like capitulation.” We continue to disagree with this optimistic forecast for commodities.
Our August report, “Commodity Weakness Persist,” published at the same time as the Barron’s cover story, analyzed the many negative forces on commodity prices and concluded, “The aggregate CRB index is already down 57% from its July 2008 pinnacle and 45% since the more recent decline commenced in April 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investors expect gold buying in India to pick up as festival of Navratri is underway

Posted on 14 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Demand in the Indian gold market is expected to strengthen over the next 10 days as the festival of good over evil known as Navratri is under way. The nine-night and ten day festival is deemed as an auspicious time for Indians, a time in which they purchase luxury items such as gold. Indians believe that buying such luxury items at this time generates growth and prosperity.
Abhishek Mehta, vice president of RiddiSiddhi Bullions, told IBTimes.co.uk: “The market has always seen the rise of gold price during Navratri and Diwali, being festive season, this is when people tend to buy more.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities Rebound but Investors Remain Wary

Posted on 12 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A commodity-sector rebound this week lifted raw-material prices, mining-company shares and the currencies of developing nations, the latest sign of the whipsaw trading that has racked markets this year.
Behind the past week’s recovery: tentative signs that China’s economy may be stabilizing after a decline in its growth rate, which could bolster demand for commodities. Many investors also cited a belief that ultralow interest rates will persist longer in the U.S., reducing further dollar appreciation. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Are commodities companies livin’ on a prayer?

Posted on 07 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors have over the past week questioned if major commodities names are – to quote the 1980’s Bon Jovi hit — “Livin’ On A Prayer” if prices relapse or remain battered for years. Glencore has been in the thick of it defending its liquidity, debt maturities and bank loans after its stock tanked 29 per cent at the beginning of last week.
The startling capitulation came despite management seemingly warding off any threat by implementing a plan to tackle its $30 billion debt pile. Much to the relief of its investor relation’s team, a charm offensive at a swanky hotel in Mayfair elevated the flagging share price………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global Oil to Cut Spending by $130 Billion, OPEC Says

Posted on 07 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global oil investments are set to be slashed by $130 billion this year, crimping supplies and ultimately boosting prices, the chief of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said.
OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla Salem el-Badri said global investments in petroleum projects will be reduced by 22.4% to $521 billion in 2015. Lower supply will result in “less supply in the very near future. Less supply means high prices,” he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold investor flows increase, physical market soft: Barclays

Posted on 06 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investor appetite for gold increased at the end of September, seen in increased inflows into gold exchange-traded products, while physical markets remained weak with China on holiday and soft Indian demand, Barclays analysts said in a note Monday.
As of September 30, a total of 4.1 mt of gold was added to gold exchange-traded products, taking total holdings to 1,652 mt, according to Barclays. Given that the gold price fell than $30/oz during the period, “this may suggest investors are bargain buying, in contrast with the trend following flows so far this year,” Barclays said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What are we to make of the commodity price meltdown?

Posted on 05 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What has recently happened to commodity prices is a key indicator of the strains in the world economy, and perhaps a forecaster of the dangers that lie ahead. Equity markets have been generally weak, while Swiss commodity giant Glencore has seen its share price drop by two thirds. What are we to make of the commodity price meltdown?
Throughout our industrial history, concern about commodities has usually focused on anxiety about shortages and high prices. In the 19th century, the great British economist William Jevons forecast industrial growth would grind to a halt because of a shortage of coal. In the early 1970s, the Club of Rome forecast a serious shortage of all essential commodities would cause their prices to surge, thereby inhibiting, perhaps even stopping, economic growth………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why investors need not fear a commodity meltdown

Posted on 05 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Glencore episode has stoked fears of another Lehman-like crisis, this time centring around commodity stocks. But investors do not have to worry too much, as the influence of commodity stocks on the Indian markets has been waning over the past seven years. Due to continuous underperformance, Indian investors have shifted their preference from commodities to bank and information technology stocks.
This shift is apparent from an analysis of the share in the market capitalisation of various stocks in the Nifty basket. The proportion of commodity stocks in the Nifty basket stands at 12.6 per cent, based on the free-float market cap. This is down sharply from the 19 per cent at the end of June 2014, when the sharp decline in commodity prices began………………………………………..Full Article: Source

A silver lining for commodity investors?

Posted on 02 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s been a brutal year for those whose fortunes depend on commodities, but other years of steep losses may offer something to cling to. Four of the five worst years for the S&P GSCI total return index, which tracks the price of 24 commodities, were followed by a bounce for the index, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Here’s a look at that record: The index fell 46.5 per cent in 2008, its biggest drop on record, and was followed by a 13.5 per cent gain in 2009. After falling 35.8 per cent in 1998, the index gained nearly 41 per cent in 1999………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Sell gold if it dips to $1,104/oz

Posted on 02 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Comex gold futures were lower on Thursday following its biggest quarterly loss in a year, after upbeat US jobs data boosted speculation that the Federal Reserve could press ahead with an interest rate hike this year. Comex gold futures moved perfectly in line with our expectations.
As mentioned in the previous update, as per the price structure, there is a chance for the uptrend to resume higher once prices cross $1,130-35 levels. Prices found strong resistance near $1,150 and could not capitalise on the gains. The present state of charts looks mixed, but not yet displaying any clear trend either ways………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Have Commodities Bottomed?

Posted on 01 October 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices have been heading lower for more than four years, and according to data accessible via Bloomberg, commodities have been the worst performing asset class of 2015, with the most severe losses in cyclical commodities, such as oil and industrial metals. Based on the Bloomberg Commodity Index, the commodity asset class is now down roughly 50 percent from its 2011 high.
It’s no wonder, then, that many investors are asking me: Have commodity prices reached a bottom? My take: It’s still probably too early to call a bottom. As I write in my new Market Perspectives paper, “Can Commodities Come Back?”*, commodities have been hurt by several, interrelated supply and demand trends, none of which appears to be going away anytime soon………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities Are Collapsing; Now is the Time to Buy

Posted on 30 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Joe Kennedy once famously said that he knew it was time to exit the stock market when his shoeshine boy offered him a stock tip. That principle, that when financial news and opinions become mainstream, the move is over, can also be applied in reverse. The collapse in commodity prices and in the stock of companies in the associated industries is nothing new.
It started when oil began its dramatic fall over a year ago and has continued ever since, fueled by fears about slowing global growth and a relatively high dollar. In the last couple of weeks, however, it seems to have passed into the mainstream. It seems that every news bulletin and publication has a story about the death of commodities right now, which, to a contrarian with an understanding of history, suggest that now is a good time to be buying………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investors: Get Ready for an Even Deeper Commodities Slump

Posted on 30 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The sharp collapse in commodities continues to worsen. The Scotiabank Commodity Price Index for August 2015 has fallen by 10.5% month over month, and the bad news doesn’t stop there. The index is now 14% lower than it was in August 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis, and there are signs that commodity prices will sink even lower. Let me explain.
Now what? The key driver of the pessimism surrounding the outlook for commodities rests squarely with concerns over China’s economy. Not only is 2015 GDP growth forecast to be at its lowest level in over two decades, but a number of crucial economic sectors that support the demand for commodities appear to be caught in protracted slumps………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What Oil Investors Can Learn From Gold

Posted on 30 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities investors had been riding on momentum for years and with a diminishing supply of the product coming from producers, prices seemed destined to keep rising for the foreseeable future. Then in the span of a few months, the commodity’s price crashed and billions upon billions in investment value and producer company market capitalization was wiped out.
For many energy investors, this story might sound familiar. But it’s not the story they are thinking of. In 2013, after a price run-up that had lasted for a decade, investors in gold found out that the precious metal was not as safe as many had assumed. Gold is supposed to be the ultimate safe-haven asset………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price: ‘safe haven’ busted by commodities rout

Posted on 30 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Equities are in sharp reverse in yet another knock to investor confidence. And gold, once seen as a safe haven, is no exception to this downward slide. “This is when you know it’s bad,” says Business Insider‘s Myles Udland.
In truth, gold was not expected to rise substantially any time soon, given the widespread belief that a rates rise might be looming. But gold was expected to hold steady in a narrow range while wider markets swung wildly. Instead the precious metal slumped by around $20 on Monday to $1,127 an ounce. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Big Investors’ Take on Precious Metals

Posted on 24 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The ongoing commodity rout has grabbed the attention of a few prominent investors in the market. Precious metals have taken a nosedive, with gold falling 6.5% and silver close to 7% on a YTD basis. Platinum and palladium have fallen even further by 20% and 26%, respectively.
Gold and gold investment, specifically, lacked luster during the past few months as investors anticipated an increase in the interest rate. Gold-backed leveraged ETFs such as the Direxion Daily Gold Miners 1 (NUGT) have considerably underperformed the backing metal. It lost a whopping 77% on a year-to-date basis. The leveraged ETF tracking silver investments, Proshares Silver Trust (AGC), has comparatively fallen less. It has fallen 20% on a year-to-date basis………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity index investing debate reignites

Posted on 21 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As investments go, commodities have proven such a dog they almost seem not worth arguing about. Once-popular theories — that central bank money printing would inflate hard assets, or that China’s appetite for commodities was bottomless — have dissipated like natural gas from a poorly sealed well.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a basket of 22 futures contracts, is scraping the lowest levels in more than a decade. The benchmark chalked up a total return of minus 42 per cent over the past decade, even as the world burnt a tenth more oil and digested two-fifths more corn………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rough ride ahead for bullion investors

Posted on 21 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Precious metals won a reprieve this week after the US Federal Reserve voiced concerns about the weakness in the global economy and left its rates unchanged. Gold ended at $1,139/ounce, up 2.8 per cent for the week. Platinum closed at $981.8/ounce, up 1.2 per cent. Silver gained about 3.8 per cent closing at $15.17/ounce.
While the US unemployment rate fell to the central bank’s target of 6.5 per cent more than a year ago and is now at 5.1 per cent, still-low inflation, sluggish wage growth and the mayhem in global financial markets saw the Fed defer rate hikes. However, given that pressures are mounting on the central bank to lift rates, there is expectation of one rate hike of at least 25 basis points before end of the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Time to Invest in Gold? Consider These Four Factors First

Posted on 18 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The market expects gold to go lower as the Fed raises interest rates. That’s because gold pays no interest, unlike bonds. In fact, more than $2.6 billion was wiped from the value of gold exchange-traded products (ETPs) in just three weeks as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s meeting. Ouch!
And in all, since gold entered a bear market in April 2013, a whopping $54 billion in value has bled out of gold ETPs. Holdings in bullion products fell to 1,508.2 metric tons on August 11. That’s the lowest since 2009. As the saying goes, trying to catch a falling knife is a good way to end up with bloody fingers…………………………………Full Article: Source

Economic Data Suggesting Commodities Are Worthwhile Investment

Posted on 15 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), which tracks 22 different commodities, is trading at the lowest levels since 2002 (below). The relationship between the US dollar and commodities is generally negatively correlated; with a strong US dollar, commodities have fallen.
This weakness in commodities, however, indicates that the global economy remains fragile with growth either slowing or not present at all in many countries. For investors, this weakness presents an opportunity………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Commodities And Precious Metals Are True Contrarian Opportunities

Posted on 15 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investors tend to make ‘contrarian’ investing choices too early in the cycle. Basically, the price of an asset can be trending higher, lower or sideways. When an asset is declining in price, it remains in a downtrend until proven otherwise. The chance of a trend change is much smaller than the trend continuing.
In other words, being ‘contrarian’ is difficult, and the pitfall is that an investor may be too early with his contrarian call. Our experience shows that a good contrarian call is based on a set of indicators, including price and technicals, investor and media sentiment, and opportunity costs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

It’s Time To Buy Commodities

Posted on 14 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities have been hammered by nearly 45% as the dollar has strongly rallied. The Federal Reserve is poised to increase the discount rate - an action which has historically driven the dollar weaker. Commodities and the dollar are inversely correlated - as the dollar falls, commodities will probably rise.
In case you’re just waking up, commodities are in the midst of one of the largest selloffs in several years. On a year-over-year basis, those even moderately exposed to the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (a leading commodity index) have been heavily impacted by the commodity drop of nearly 45%. However, if you are an individual who likes profit (and who doesn’t?), you’re in luck………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global oil glut set to grease the wheels of investment banks

Posted on 14 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

While it’s likely to deepen the despair of Australia’s oil minnows, the latest prediction that the oil price could fall as low as $US20 a barrel is sure to gladden the hearts of investment bankers, who are hoping to profit from more takeover activity in the embattled energy sector.
In a report released last week, Goldman Sachs analysts warn that oil prices “will be lower for even longer”, and may need to fall as low as $US20 a barrel to clear the huge glut in global markets. “The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected,” the report says………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Rebounds as Investors Wait for Fed Decision

Posted on 11 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices nudged higher on Thursday as a weaker dollar lent support to the market and some investors recalibrated their views on U.S. interest rates. The most actively traded contract, for December delivery, rose $7.30, or 0.7%, to settle at $1,109.30 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The dollar retreated against other currencies after data showed prices for imported goods last month posted their largest drop since January, a sign that inflation in the U.S. remains mild. The report revived the argument that the Federal Reserve would stand pat on rates at next week’s monetary policy meeting, as officials have expressed concern that inflation remains stubbornly low………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is Gold Still a Safe Haven?

Posted on 11 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A safe haven is an investment that is expected to retain its value during times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty. Therefore safe haven investments provide a low level of risk for investors. Conventional wisdom considers gold a safe haven (alongside the US dollar, the Swiss Franc and US Treasury Bonds), an asset to which investors traditionally cluster when chaos threatens financial markets.
This is because, as a physical asset, the interest rate decisions of one country cannot manipulate its value, and its value cannot easily be changed by dramatically increasing supply to the same effect that printing more money creates. However, the days of gold being considered as a safe haven may be over………………………………………..Full Article: Source

If the Bear’s Near, Which Assets Protect You?

Posted on 10 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Realistic investment expectations are always important. But they are especially so now, since market drops have suddenly rekindled investors’ memories of bear markets. After several bracing declines for stocks, the question for investors now is: What should they expect when the next bear market comes along—if it isn’t already here? And how can they protect themselves?
The answer to the first question: Expect stocks to fall across the board. In other words, don’t expect to avoid losses on investments in “defensive” sectors of the market. The answer to the second question: There might be some safety in gold and other commodities—or there might not. The surest way to avoid losing money in a bear stock market is to invest in bonds………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Big name investors are getting bullish on commodities

Posted on 10 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A few legendary influencers in investing are making huge bets right now on commodities, an area that’s faced—and continues to face—some pretty strong headwinds. What are we to make of this? I already shared with you that famed hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller made a $323-million bet on gold, now the largest position in his family office fund.
It’s also come to light that George Soros recently moved $2 million into coal producers Peabody Energy and Arch Coal. Meanwhile, activist investor Carl Icahn took an 8.5-percent position in copper miner Freeport-McMoRan, which we own………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India: No FPI Investment in Commodities Till Government Review

Posted on 10 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Hopes of commodities market for FPI investment after coming under Sebi’s ambit later this month has been dashed by RBI, which has told the markets regulator to keep any such decision on hold till a policy review is done by the government in this regard.
While the government has issued notifications for merger of commodities markets regulator FMC with capital markets watchdog Sebi with effect from September 28, the revised norms for exchanges and various market participants were notified last month to pave way for the combined regulatory regime………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Dr Doom: there’s no safe asset in the world but…

Posted on 08 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Marc Faber believes there is no safe asset class at the moment, although he thinks the mining sector now looks interesting. ‘I think that because of modern central banking and repeated monetary policy interventions there is no safe asset anymore,’ the author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report told Bloomberg.
‘When I grew up in the 1950s it was safe to put your money in the bank on deposit, the yields were low but it was safe. [But] nowadays you don’t know what will happen next in terms of purchasing power of money, but what we do know is it’s going down.’ However, following the huge sell off in commodities, Faber believes there is in opportunity in the mining sector………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold’s ‘safe haven’ status tarnished by two week slump

Posted on 07 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold’s safe haven appeal has been dulled after prices endured a two-week slump. Gold prices have endured a two-week slump after jobs data from the US kept an interest rate rise on the cards and dulled its appeal to would-be buyers.
The yellow metal, which is often viewed as a safe haven by investors, has slumped by $50, or 3.5pc, from a high of $1,170 per ounce on August 24, to close at $1,120 per ounce at the end of last week. The US Federal Reserve is still on course to increase the key central bank borrowing rate before the end of the year, and this will dull the precious metal’s appeal, as it offers no interest, or income, to investors………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Marc Faber Warns “No Safe Assets Anymore” So “Focus On Precious Metals”

Posted on 04 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Respected economist and historian and the editor of the ‘Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’ Marc Faber warned on Bloomberg TV’s Market Makers yesterday that there are now “no safe assets” including deposits and said that he is focusing “on precious metals.”
In another informative and interesting interview, Faber spoke about dangerous central bank policies and the stupidity of QE, the cause of inequality including competitive currency devaluations and warned that even deposits are no longer safe………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is Natural Gas the New Gold?

Posted on 28 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

When the market is shaky, seek safety in … natural gas. Wait – what? Citigroup Inc. is touting natural gas – a commodity so notorious for volatility that its most renown bet is called the “widow maker” – as a possible haven for investors weary of the market’s wild swings.
A sluggish global economy, a staggering China and plummeting oil prices have sent commodity, currency and stock markets spiraling this summer. But they mean very little for U.S. gas futures, which have been stable for more than two months and even briefly entered a bull market in the late spring………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is gold back to being a safe haven?

Posted on 28 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices have increased in August, recovering from a lacklustre performance over the last few years, after market volatility ramped up. While gold hasn’t been rising in tough periods as many investors would expect, it does appear that investors have been buying into the commodity this month, following a positive 3.35 per cent return from the S&P GSCI Gold Spot index.
The obvious guess as to why this is the case is the global volatility we have experienced in recent months. This came to a head on Monday, when the FTSE 100 had £74bn wiped off its value, the Dow Jones ended the day down 558 points and the Shanghai Composite dropped by 8.5 per cent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Alternative investments: Helping investors weather the current market storm

Posted on 28 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent sharp sell-off in global equity markets has focused investors on the importance of holding diversifying investments that can help mitigate volatility and potentially cushion their portfolios during times of market stress. Given their unique nature, alternative investments are proving to be useful tools to help investors weather the current market storm.
As the chart1 below illustrates, a basket of alternatives — based on Invesco’s alternatives framework as explained in my previous blog post How to approach the alternative investments puzzle — has historically delivered equity-like returns with low levels of volatility (as measured by standard deviation) and lower maximum……………………………………….Full Article: Source

banner
May 2016
S M T W T F S
« Apr    
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031