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Commodities Briefing - Category | Index more

Commodities rip higher. Good news?

Posted on 27 February 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity markets have rallied sharply over the past month. That could be good or bad. Good if it signals a recovery in the global economy. Bad if it’s mostly a result of Chinese financial speculation.
The Dow Jones-UBS Commodities Index has rallied 7% since mid-January and is now at the highest level it’s been since the end of last April. Indeed, the one-month rally is the strongest since the summer of 2012, when the euro crisis was finally broken by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s promise to do “whatever it takes” to rescue the single currency………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity prices strengthen in January

Posted on 21 February 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index rallied back by 3.3% month-over-month (m/m) in January, after dropping sharply in late 2013. “Commodity prices are in the process of bottoming,” said Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank’s Vice President of Economics and Commodity Market Specialist.
“Prospects for a pick-up in the U.S. economy in 2014 and a slow recovery in Europe — in the context of a Chinese economy still growing by more than 7% — point to reasonable demand growth going forward, offsetting the challenges faced by some emerging markets in dealing with capital outflows linked to U.S. Fed tapering.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities hit 2014 highs

Posted on 13 February 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities climbed to the highest since December as extreme weather fueled supply concerns for crops and energy at a time of rising imports by China, the world’s largest consumer of everything from metals to pork.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities gained 0.3 percent to 636.4641 at 1:45 p.m. New York time after touching 639.9293, the highest since Dec. 30. Sugar headed for the biggest increase since Jan. 31, while natural gas advanced for a second day. Coffee was also among the biggest gainers, and cocoa reached the highest since 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities: Winter is coming

Posted on 04 February 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A month into 2014, the winning position in the commodities market is to be frozen with fear—literally. Last year was, on average, another one to forget for investors in raw materials: The Dow Jones-Commodity index fell 10% against a 24% increase in the MSCI World Index of stocks. But those trends reversed in January. The MSCI index finished the month down 3.7%, while the DJ-UBS index eked out a slight gain.
But as rallies go, this one is at best a two-horse race. It is fortunate for investors in the DJ-UBS that its biggest component, weighing in at nearly 14.5%, is U.S. natural gas. Near-term gas futures returned about 18% in January amid America’s big freeze………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Index changes shift commodity ETF exposure

Posted on 10 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The annual rebalancing of two major S&P Dow Jones commodities indexes are going to result in massive buying of Brent crude oil and gold, and unloading of WTI crude and natural gas in the days ahead. The adjusting exposure should directly impact a roster of ETFs that either track one of these benchmarks directly, or that invest in those specific markets, all of which will be impacted by the move.
In a process that began Wednesday and should go on for five days, according to S&P Dow Jones, the rebalancing of the Standard & Poor’s Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index will trigger roughly $2.7 billion in new buying in the Brent market, and some $1 billion in fresh gold demand……………………………..Full Article: Source

RBA commodity prices at 42-month low

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Australia’s export commodity prices ended 2013 on a weak note, falling to their lowest level in over three and a half years. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s index of commodity prices fell by one per cent in foreign currency terms between November and December.
Lower prices for gold, iron ore and coking coal were the main reasons for the latest fall, the RBA said. The fall in December brought the decline through 2013 to four per cent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China launches daily iron ore price index

Posted on 03 January 2014 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China has launched a daily iron ore price index from this year, the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) said on Thursday, as Beijing wants to have a bigger say in pricing the steel-making raw material.
The move is part of China’s latest effort to shift pricing benchmarks for commodities from West to East as it has launched a series of futures contracts from iron ore to eggs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity prices fall but still high

Posted on 04 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices fell for the first time in five months in November, dragged down by falls in aluminium and some dairy products. The ANZ Commodity Price Index eased 0.4% to be 21.4% higher than a year ago. The index is now 2% below the record high reached in April.
Aluminium recorded the largest fall across the commodity basket, dropping 4% to a four-year low, while wholemilk powder and butter also eased. This was partly offset by higher prices for meat, skins, wool and other dairy products. The price index edged higher in New Zealand dollar terms………………………………………..Full Article: Source

RBA commodity price index lifts in November

Posted on 03 December 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Export commodity prices started rising again in November. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) index of commodity prices was 0.1 per cent higher in the month, in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) terms, after falling by 0.4 per cent in October.
The price index is measured in terms of special drawing rights (SDRs), an average of four major currencies - the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. The RBA said prices for gold, coking coal and wheat fell……………………………….Full Article: Source

Canadian Commodity Index declines along with oil and gas prices

Posted on 29 November 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For a third month in a row, commodity prices have fallen in Canada, according to the latest Scotiabank Price Index. It shows prices were down by 3.8 per cent, with the Oil and Gas Sub-Index leading the decline down 8 1/2 percentage points in October.
Patricia Mohr, an economist with Scotiabank, said the main reasons for the decline are lower oil prices and a buildup of light oil in the United States. She also noted transporting product has been a problem, as Albertans are getting around $26 less per barrel than the world market, but she said railways are starting to pick up the slack………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rogers commodity index cuts 2014 US crude weighting; adds to natgas

Posted on 28 November 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI), managed by veteran investor Jim Rogers, will cut its weighting toward crude oil next year and raise exposure to natural gas, gold and silver, due to what Rogers termed “consumption changes”.
The shift in weightings of the RICI comes amid projections for higher U.S. crude oil supplies in 2014, which some analysts say could further weigh on weakening prices. U.S. natural gas production is also expected to rise next year, although gas prices have been trending higher lately due to cold weather in key consuming regions of the country………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Charts: Commodity indices continue to struggle

Posted on 14 November 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It is one of the more obscure anecdotes of pop music history: Bobby Fuller’s classic “I Fought the Law” was originally entitled, “I fought the idea of long-only commodity indices as an investment, and it won.” I bought the rights to the latter and the rest, they say, is history.
The idea that physical commodities as a group or individual physical commodities taken separately can offer some measure of protection against inflation and/or currency debasement has a lot of appeal on the surface, but really has none underneath………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index loses further ground in September

Posted on 31 October 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index fell in September, declining 2.8% month over month (m/m) and 3.8% year over year (yr/yr). While the All Items Index will likely fall further over the balance of 2013, the correction in commodity prices, especially in metals and minerals, since April 2011 should be largely over by year-end.
“Traditionally, junior mining companies have been important contributors to mineral exploration across Canada, finding and delineating deposits, before selling them to senior producers for development,” said Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank’s Vice President of Economics and Commodity Market Specialist. “However, equity capital raised by junior mining companies on the TSX Venture plunged in 2012 and has moved even lower in 2013 year to date. (Press Release)

Scotiabank Commodity Price Index inches down

Posted on 01 October 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index slumped by 0.1% month over month in August. But the bank’s All Items Index has edged up so far this year by 1.2%, largely reflecting a 0.4% month-over-month rebound in its Oil & Gas Index over December 2012 levels. That’s because there’s been a strong cyclical recovery in building material prices.
“Slight gains in Alberta light and heavy crude oil, and a big increase in propane prices at both Edmonton and Sarnia offset softer natural gas export prices,” says Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank’s vice president of economics and commodity market specialist. (Press Release)

Commodity markets take good news in its stride

Posted on 30 September 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What does China’s factory sector growing at its strongest pace in six months have in common with the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep buying bonds? Both failed to boost commodity prices much.
The flash HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.2 in September from August’s 50.1, the highest level since March and strengthening the view that economic growth in the world’s largest commodity consumer is regaining momentum. The improvement came days after the Fed surprised market watchers by keeping its bond purchases at $85 billion (Dh312 billion) a month, judging that it is still too early to taper monetary stimulus, given the nascent economic recovery in the US………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities to extend loss on moving average: Technical Analysis

Posted on 24 September 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities measured by the S&P GSCI Total Return Index may extend losses after falling from an 11-month high last month as the gauge nears a 200-day moving average, according to Commerzbank AG.
The index lost more than 5 percent since touching 5,155.80 on Aug. 28, the highest since September last year, after failing to rise above 5,165 and 5,185 on Fibonacci studies, London-based analysts Karen Jones and Axel Rudolph said in a report on Sept. 17. Rudolph confirmed their views remained unchanged today and would only be revised if the index rose above last week’s high of 4,998.70…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goldman expects decline in commodities index in 12 months

Posted on 12 September 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its 12-month forecast for commodity returns, predicting a decline in precious metals, agriculture and energy. The bank kept its neutral recommendation on raw materials.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index will drop 2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent expected in July, analysts led by New York-based Jeffrey Currie said in a report today. Energy, with a 73.5 percent weighting, will probably fall 1 percent, while precious metals slide 15 percent and agriculture declines 7 percent, they said. Industrial metals may increase 2 percent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The last contrarian play? Investors look to commodities as oil and gold rally

Posted on 10 September 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As concerns over the Syria crisis persist, oil and gold prices have risen, prompting investors to look at commodities as “the only contrarian play left in the market”. WTI Crude oil is currently trading at $108.5 per barrel and Brent has shot up to $115.6, while gold topped the $1,400 mark last week to enter a new bull market.
The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity index has climbed more than 6% from its June trough, up from 275.6 on 28 June to 292.7 on 3 September………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The best indicator of China’s commodity trade is on an insane surge

Posted on 10 September 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The once obscure Baltic Dry Shipping Index came to prominence at the start of the Chinese-led commodity supercycle around a decade ago. The London-based Baltic Exchange tracks the cost of moving commodities along more than 50 routes around the world. With China’s emergence as the dominant trading economy in the world the index became one of the go-to barometers.
China now controls the global trade in just about every commodity including iron ore (representing over 60% of the seaborne trade), copper (42%), coal (47%), nickel (36%), lead (44%) and zinc (41%) and the death of the supercycle now seems to have been exaggerated………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Brazil’s central bank commodities index up 3.77pct in August

Posted on 06 September 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Brazilian central bank BCB’s commodities price index IC-BR increased 3.77% in August, month-on-month, according to the bank’s website.
In August, the highest Increase was seen in metals (aluminum, iron ore, copper, tin, zinc, lead and nickel), at 9.70%, Followed by energy commodities (oil, natural gas and coal), up 21.4%. Agricultural commodities (beef and pork, cotton, soya oil, wheat, sugar, maize, coffee and rice) were up 2:38%. (Translated)……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities lead gains as emerging markets drop

Posted on 04 September 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities beat bonds, stocks and the dollar for a third month, the longest winning streak in two years, as the prospect of military strikes in Syria boosted oil and gold. Emerging markets declined as currencies plunged from Brazil to Turkey to India.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 raw materials rose 3.4 percent in August as U.S. crude reached a two-year high and gold rallied close to a bull market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Scotiabank Commodity Price Index rallies in July

Posted on 23 August 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index jumped by 4.1% month-over-month (m/m) in July. Despite considerable month-to-month volatility, the All Items Index has edged up by 1.2% year-to-date (YTD) over the previous seven months and is currently 6.3% above a year earlier.
“While it is too early to say that commodity prices have bottomed, the correction since April 2011 could be largely over later this year,” said Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank’s Vice President of Economics and Commodity Market Specialist. “The downturn since the Spring of 2011 has been linked to an austerity-led recession in the southern euro zone, a sub-par U.S. economic recovery and new mine supply coming on stream in a lacklustre global economy. The euro zone’s real GDP rose by 1.1% annualized in 2013:Q2, ending six consecutive quarters of contraction, and signs point to a moderate pick-up in the United States.” (Press Release)

Managed futures is answer to commodity/stock index correlation dilemma

Posted on 23 August 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Jodie M. Gunzberg, vice president at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote an interesting piece in the S&P Dow Jones Indices blog, Indexology. The blog is titled “Fear Gauge Spikes: Let’s Play Hot Potato” and in it Gunzberg tries to answer a number of questions, but the basic question is: why have commodities reacted differently to spikes in the Chicago Board Options Volatility Index (VIX), or fear gauge, as Gunzberg refers to it, since the credit crisis of 2008 than they did to spikes in the VIX pre-2008.
The reference to the VIX itself is a bit of subterfuge in my opinion because basically what she is describing though avoiding saying explicitly is that commodities markets in general and the S&P GSCI in particular has become increasingly correlated to the S&P 500 since 2008……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Behind the blowout in commodities

Posted on 22 August 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has performed well this year and is up over 19% on the year as of July 31st. The Federal Reserves accommodative stance on monetary policy may be one of the reasons for this action.
I assume this to be true due to the sharp but short correction and rise in interest rates we had in June. The markets came right back and hit all time highs in July as the Fed verbally backed off from comments about tapering bond purchases………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why August’s rare earths price index shot up

Posted on 09 August 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The monthly Rare Earths MMI took the biggest jump of any of the index readings, moving from a paltry 29 in July to 37 in August, on the back of big upward price movements for all 14 metals and oxides that comprise rare earth metals index.
Dudley Kingsnorth, a noted rare earth metals analyst, attributes the improved rare earth price levels to several factors including: rising demand for automation technology (and the rare earth metals that support it, such as: neodymium, dysprosium, europium and cerium), as well as China’s stop to new mining exploration within China and a curb on mining licenses………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is it time to buy commodities?

Posted on 05 August 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities investors are missing out on the party. Since its recent peak in September 2012, the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index, which includes 20 products such as natural gas, gold and copper, has fallen about 14%.
During the same period, the S&P 500 stock index has taken off, returning close to 20% including dividends. And even amid all the talk of a bond-market crash, a broad-based bond-market exchange-traded fund such as iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market has lost only a few percent, while exchange-traded funds that own riskier bonds, like high-yield ones, have in some cases made money………………………………………..Full Article: Source

NZ commodity prices rise in July: ANZ survey

Posted on 05 August 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Prices for New Zealand’s main commodities rose in July, the first lift in three months, driven by gains in wool and most dairy products, while a fall in the local currency lifted returns, the ANZ Bank’s commodity price index showed on Monday.
The index rose 0.6 per cent from June, taking the annual rise to 25.7 per cent. The index is 5 per cent below a record high touched in April. Prices for most dairy products rose, along with wool, logs, and animal skins, which offset a dip in cheese, aluminium, and some fruit prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index drops back in June

Posted on 31 July 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After rallying in May, Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index fell by 4.1% month-over-month (m/m) in June - the sharpest decline since late 2012. “The Index will be underpinned in July by a return to stronger oil prices in Western Canada and the beginning of another upswing in lumber and oriented strandboard (OSB) prices, after a sharp, seasonal inventory correction,” said Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank’s Vice President of Economics and Commodity Market Specialist.
“The All Items Index remains 1.7% above a year earlier, with Oil & Gas up +17.8%, Forest Products +1.5% and Agriculture +0.1% just offsetting a -13.6% decline in Metals & Minerals.” (Press Release)

Continuous Commodity Index points to rally in gold & silver

Posted on 16 July 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

During the recent weeks we have seen commodities especially precious metals continue to drop in value. Market participant sentiment has become more bearish on commodities and couple that with a rising dollar it’s no wonder why we continue to see commodities as a whole fall in value.
Money has been flowing out of bonds at record levels this summer telling us most of market participants are feeling bullish on the stock market. This shift in sentiment of the masses are typical as they move their money from the risk on safer assets (bonds & commodities) and rotate into risk-on assets like stocks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

ETPs based on NASDAQ OMX commodity indexes are introduced

Posted on 12 July 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. announced exchange-traded product (ETP) provider BOOST ETP will launch nine new exchange-traded products (ETPs) in the United Kingdom (UK) that are based on indexes in the NASDAQ Commodity Index FamilySM. They are the second set of BOOST ETP products linked to the NASDAQ Commodity Index Family and the total number of BOOST’s ETPs on this Family increases to 25.
“The introduction of these commodity ETPs reaffirms the success of our index construction and our rules-based, objective and transparent index methodology,” said John Jacobs, NASDAQ OMX EVP and Head of NASDAQ OMX Global Indexes. “BOOST ETP has again succeeded in leveraging our indexes to quickly and efficiently develop innovative products for a wide range of investors.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities: Too early to become positive, says Credit Suisse’s Merath

Posted on 05 July 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Tobias Merath, head of Commodity and Alternative Investments Research at Credit Suisse, says market conditions for commodities remain challenging.In late June, prices sold-off following a period of stabilization.
The broad-based commodity indices are all down year-to-date. We think a rebound is possible in some markets but would not expect a broad move higher. Instead, leading economic indicators suggest that investors should remain cautious for now. In order to assess the outlook for commodity markets, we mainly look at three factors: cycle, valuation and technical analysis. On the cyclical side, there is currently not much impetus………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global Food Security Index monitors impact of world agriculture

Posted on 04 July 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Findings from the annual Global Food Security Index were issued Tuesday by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) that shows food security has improved in some developing nations. The average 2013 Global Food Index Score held flat at 53.5, compared to the 53.6 measured in 2012.
The Index, a first-of-its-kind ranking tool to comprehensively measure food security and monitor the ongoing impact of agriculture investments, collaborations and policies around the world, is commissioned by DuPont………………………………………..Full Article: Source

NZ commodity prices fall 3.7pct in June, led by milk powder

Posted on 03 July 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

New Zealand commodity prices fell for a second month in June, led by dairy products and beef, though the slide in the kiwi meant prices actually rose in the local currency. The ANZ Commodity Price Index fell 3.7% last month, following a 1.6% decline in May. Whole milk powder declined 9% and skim milk powder fell 8%.
The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index, the world’s leading benchmark of commodity prices, fell 1.5% last month and is now sitting near its lowest levels since June last year. Weaker manufacturing activity in China has weighed on prices of raw materials and prices of dairy products have fallen in three of the past four GlobalDairyTrade auctions……………………………….Full Article: Source

Marc Faber: More S&P downside, commodities ‘horrible’…except gold

Posted on 24 June 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With the S&P 500 SPX 0.27% down 2.4% after the Fed laid it on the line, it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise to see the bears out there growling away. Noted contrarian Marc Faber told CNBC on Thursday that he sees further downside for the S&P.
“…not because of Fed’s statements because, like always, they hedged their bets in the sense that this tapering off would not neccesarily stop. Mr Bernanke said if the economy does not improve along the lines that we expect we will provide additional support. I think the markets are worried about something else,” says the publisher of the GloomBoomDoom report………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities from gold to oil slump on Fed outlook, China crunch

Posted on 21 June 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities tumbled as everything from gold to crude oil and copper dropped on concern that the Federal Reserve may phase out stimulus and as China’s cash crunch worsened.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index lost 3 percent to 616.46, capping the biggest drop since December 2011. All 24 raw materials tracked by the gauge declined. Gold futures slid below $1,300 an ounce to the lowest in more than 2 1/2 years, and silver plunged as much as 9.7 percent, while nickel touched the lowest price since 2009………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Commodity prices fall in May: RBA

Posted on 04 June 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Australia’s export commodity prices fell in May, the second monthly fall, following a run of three increases. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s index of commodity prices fell by 2.6 per cent in the month in foreign currency terms.
Commodity prices peaked in July 2011 and are now down by 20.1 per cent from that high, but still more than 200 per cent higher than 10 years ago before the commodities boom started to lift prices. The RBA said the main contributors to the fall in May were iron ore, gold and coal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper and S&P part ways – Which has it wrong?

Posted on 21 May 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The big divergence over the past few months in the direction of the S&P 500 and copper, which historically trade in tandem, has one strategist questioning which market is getting it wrong.
David McAlvany, CEO, McAlvany Financial Group said it doesn’t make sense that S&P 500 should motor higher, while the sell-off in copper continues………………………………..Full Article: Source

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index posts mild decline in April

Posted on 14 May 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The decline in Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index in April was quite mild - down 0.2% month-over-month (m/m) - despite a sharp mid-month selloff in gold and talk of an end to the ‘Super-Cycle’ in commodity prices. “Financial market concern over the outlook for commodity markets was overblown mid-month,” said Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank’s Vice President of Economics and Commodity Market Specialist.
“While China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed to 7.7% year-over-year (y/y) in 2013:Q1, from 7.9% in 2012:Q4, actual demand for raw materials was robust in China. The double-digit growth of China’s passenger car market, up 20% in Q1, reinforces its importance as a driver of growth in worldwide auto demand and related commodities such as copper.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Don’t write off the commodities super-cycle just yet

Posted on 30 April 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Here’s something unexpected: commodity prices have actually been rising, at least according to Bank of Nova Scotia’s monthly commodity price index.The index rose in March by 1.6 per cent over February and inched up slightly in the first quarter as a whole.“Firmer overall prices in March – likely a surprise to financial markets – were led by the oil and gas index (+6.8 per cent month over month),” Scotiabank said.
In the plus column were Western Canadian heavy oil, natural gas export prices to the U.S., and propane prices, and for non-energy commodities, forest and agricultural products………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index rallies in March

Posted on 30 April 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index rose by 1.6% month over month (m/m) in March, after edging down in February, and inched up slightly in the first quarter of 2013 from the fourth-quarter average. However commodity markets remain skittish, with a sharp selloff in gold in mid-April and softer base metal prices, after the release of China’s slower-than-expected first-quarter GDP advance, 7.7% year over year (yr/yr), down from 7.9% in 2012:Q4.
“Firmer overall prices in March were likely a surprise to financial markets,” said Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank’s Vice President of Economics and Commodity Market Specialist. “The advance was led by the Oil and Gas Index (+6.8% m/m), with gains in Western Canadian Select (WCS) heavy oil, natural gas export prices from Canada to the U.S. and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices in Edmonton and Sarnia.” (Press Release)

Commodity prices move higher in March, weakness ahead for industrial metals: Scotiabank

Posted on 30 April 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices nudged up slightly in March just ahead of the steep sell-off in gold mid-April. Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index rose 1.6 per cent month over month. Traders are bracing for more uncertainty following a reality check in China’s economic growth, which rose less than expected at 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2013.
Oil and gas was the strongest sub-category as prices rose 6.8 per cent from February. Natural gas reached its highest level since July 2011 as the winter dragged on in North America………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China PMI rebound no guarantee of higher commodity imports: Clyde Russell

Posted on 03 April 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It would be logical to assume that the rise in China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index to an 11-month high would signal stronger commodity demand, but this isn’t guaranteed.
What the increase in the PMI to 50.9 in March from February’s 50.1 does show is that the modest expansion in China’s economy remains on track. At these levels gross domestic product growth should easily achieve the government’s 7.5 percent target for 2013, and is more likely to be closer to 8 percent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Monthly ANZ Commodity Price Index rises 7.4pct in March

Posted on 02 April 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The ANZ Commodity Price Index rose 7.4% in March, led by whole milk powder, pelt, butter and skim milk powder prices, in its third strongest monthly rise ever. ANZ economist Steve Edwards said the index, at 296.1, was now just 6% below its all time high, which was recorded in April 2011.
The only two months when the index has risen by more are November 2009 and April 1986 when it posted 11.13% and 8.84% increases, respectively. “Underpinning the latest lift was a strong jump in dairy and pelt prices,” says Edwards………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The CRB Index hints commodities to improve

Posted on 13 March 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The CRB Index, an excellent gauge of commodity prices per se, ended a few ticks in the red, nearly unchanged. There was some weakness with the pork complex, feeder cattle and a few soft or tropical markets but otherwise, the session was subdued with the Index appearing dead in the water. But keep in mind that Thursday and Friday of last week, the Index posted impressive, ‘back to back’ gains making yesterday, a day of rest.
Despite the CRB doing little, there were several interesting developments yesterday that I found compelling. For starters, there was front month March oat futures that that hit a high of $4.283/4 a bushel and settled at $4.23, up 183/4 cents. From the low last Thursday of $3.90 to yesterdays high the market has rallied nearly 10%, visiting a level not seen since June, 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

NZ commodity prices rise in Feb: ANZ Bank

Posted on 04 March 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Prices for New Zealand’s main commodities rose for the seventh consecutive month in February, bolstered by some dairy and forestry products and meat, a survey showed on Monday. The ANZ Bank’s commodity price index gained 1 per cent on the previous month, following the rise after a 0.3 per cent rise in January.
The series has gained 9 per cent since its low point last July but is 13 per cent below its record high in April 2011. Ten of the 17 commodity groups rose in price, two were weaker, and five flat………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Scotiabank commodity price index rebounds in January after year-end decline

Posted on 28 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices started the year on a stronger note, rising 3.8 per cent month-over-month in January after losing significant ground late in 2012, according to the Scotiabank commodity price index.
“Riskier assets such as commodities and equities were buoyed in January by the 2012 fourth-quarter improvement in China’s economy,” the bank’s commodity market specialist Patricia Mohr said in remarks accompanying the release of the index Wednesday. “However, market conditions remain skittish, with some industrial commodity prices and equity markets easing back again in late February.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Bovespa-Index futures fall as commodities slide on euro concern

Posted on 27 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bovespa stock-index futures fell as commodities declined on concern Italy’s elections may reignite Europe’s debt crisis, curbing global growth and demand for Brazil’s exports.
State-controlled oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4) retreated in Frankfurt trading as oil reached a seven-week low in New York. Water utility Cia. de Saneamento de Minas Gerais may be active after reporting profit that beat estimates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Downturn in China’s investment cycle could push down global prices of some commodities

Posted on 26 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A downturn in China’s investment cycle could push down global prices for some commodities, such as iron ore, by up to 12%, according to new study by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (S&P).
In a study entitled “The Investment Overhang: If China’s Investments Dip, Commodity Prices May Slip” released on Feb 25, S&P found a strong correlation between movements in China’s investment-to-GDP ratio and prices for commodities such as iron ore and coal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bovespa-Index futures fall as commodities drop on growth outlook

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bovespa stock-index futures fell, signaling the stock gauge may retreat for a seventh day, as commodities declined on concern China’s property curb and contraction in the euro region will sap global growth.
Iron-ore mining company Vale SA (VALE3) slid in Frankfurt trading. Steelmaker Gerdau SA (GGBR4) may be active after reporting profit in the fourth quarter missed analysts’ estimate…………………………………….Full Article: Source

5 reasons the S&P 500 could fall 20pct by the end of 2013

Posted on 22 February 2013 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Yesterday, I watched the stock market fall because some members of the Federal Reserve wanted to end its quantitative easing (QE) program before hitting its target of 6.5% unemployment. The reason some Federal Reserve members want to end QE early was the risks further QE could have on the economy and inflation.
If the Federal Reserve removes or slows down QE, I believe the market could be in for a correction. With the stock market sitting near a five-year high, I believe this would be a prudent time to think about the investment landscape and see what investment options make sense for the possible coming correction…………………………………….Full Article: Source

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